As of January 22, 2025, China's urea enterprises total inventory of 1.4349 million tons, 194.6 thousand tons less than last week, a sequential decrease of 11.94%. The stockpiles of urea enterprises continued to decline in this cycle, and as the Spring Festival approached, urea companies actively pre-filled the Spring Festival orders and prompted the flow of supplies. In addition, some areas around the Spring Festival are expected to have rainy and snowy weather, and agricultural fertilizer preparation is more concentrated, helping the stock of urea enterprises to decline. Provinces with decreased enterprise inventory in this cycle: Anhui, Hainan, Hebei, Henan, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Xinjiang; Increase in inventory of enterprises in the provinces: Jilin, Yunnan.
producers is that or this, 400+ Egypt, 400 socar, 350 iran, Baltic is from 375 up to 385, 380 Nigeria – but in Europe gr urea market stuck not going further up over 450 euro fca dp, deals are concluded max at this level, and it's stopped – first application is covered, and they have time to wait for some while.
North American potash market nervously awaits Trump inauguration*
With US President-elect Donald Trump set to be inaugurated on 20 January, the North American potash market is nervously awaiting confirmation on whether tariffs will be implemented on imports from Canada. Trump first threatened to impose 25% tariffs on imports of all goods from Canada and Mexico back in November 2024 and he has repeated the same threat on multiple occasions since. While further clarity may yet take days or even weeks to emerge, it is worth considering the likely impacts these tariffs would have on the potash market if implemented. (At the time of writing this post, some media reports suggested that no new tariffs would be imposed on 20 January).
Canada supplies the US with as much as 85% of its overall annual MOP imports and 80% of the volume if you factor out re-exports of Canadian product via Portland, Oregon. The traded volume in January-November 2024 reached more than 7Mt after removing these re-exports, according to the latest available trade data. As such, the potential imposition of tariffs has huge ramifications for supply to the US market.
The likely price impact cannot be ignored. New Orleans granular MOP barge prices had drifted to as low as $250pst fob Nola but have since firmed on the back of tariff fears to as high as $260pst fob based on Profercy’s latest assessment. Some indications have since been heard closer to $265pst fob. If the full cost of a 25% tariff was passed along to US consumers, Nola prices would jump from being amongst the lowest globally for gMOP to the highest. Under a 25% price increase, the latest average of $255pst fob Nola (reflecting $274pt cfr US Gulf equivalent) would climb to $343pt cfr US Gulf.
In a second scenario, under a 25% tariff and without any further US market price increases, sales to the Midwest would flip from yielding by some distance the highest gMOP netbacks to the lowest globally for Canadian producers. This scenario would reflect as much as an $80pt hit on returns for millions of tonnes for Canadian suppliers. Based on 2024 trade data, the tariff could imply revenue losses well in excess of $500 million for Canadian suppliers in 2025.
If Trump follows through with his threat, the reality is likely to fall somewhere in between the first and second scenarios, with US prices rising but not quite to the same extent as to match the full cost of a 25% tariff. If Nola prices rose 10% on the back of the implementation of the tariff to be more in line with the latest prices in Brazil, the netback impact for Canadian suppliers would be heavily offset.
Further analysis on the potential impact of US tariffs against Canada can be found in Profercy’s January Potash Report, which will be published on Tuesday 21 January.
[Urea] On January 20, the daily output of the urea industry was 189,500 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 20,600 tons from the same period last year; today's start-up rate was 84.61%, an increase of 6.60% from 78.01% last year.
Good morning and good week ahead – paper mkts framed at close of week:
AG
Jan $376//$385
_[Jan traded $378 last week]_
Feb $385//$397
Mar $380//$385 – traded $385 Fri
_[Mar traded $380-85 last week]_
Apr $365//$383
Q2 $377 Offer
Cfr Brazil
Jan $380//$388
Feb $385//$400
_[Jan & Feb traded $385 last week]_
Mar $380//$395
Egypt
Jan $415//$424
Feb $410//$430
_[Feb traded $415-17 last week]_
Mar $400//$416
Apr/May $410 Offer
….
US holiday today:
Nola
Phys: Mar traded $370
Jan $352//$360
Feb $365//$370- traded $369
Mar $363/$370
Apr $355//$367
May $340//$352
Jun $320//$330
UAN Nola
Jan $232//$250
Feb $253//$265
Mar $260//$275
May $247//$255
Q2 $245//$255
DAP Nola
Jan $587//$595
Feb $587//$595
Mar $585//$590
Q2 $545//$580
– Iranian producers announced $350/mt officially this week.
– Lordegan sold a 25 Kt at $355.1/Mt by today’s tender.
Hello Guys. I need to check with you an info heard today via Corteva namely Russia selling/ sold big lots of wheat to China. Anybody can confirm this please?
Lordegan sold at 355.1
Dangote booked the three cargoes in the low $380s FOB Lekki – more than one trader, we are told
-UREA PRICES ARE ON FIRE AND SUBSTANTIAL INCREASES HAVE BEEN NOTICED THIS PAST WEEK VS WEEK BEFORE
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES ARE HOLDING DUE TO LACK OF AVAILABILITY MET WITH SUBDUED DEMAND IN BOTH BRAZIL AND INDIA
-POTASH PRICES IN THE US ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE PRIOR TO THE INAUGURATION OF PRESIDENT ELECT TRUMP DUE TO EXPECTED TARIFF INCREASES
Urea prices are rising fast with the latest granular urea tender in Indonesia at USD 411.11 PMT FOB up from USD 391 PMT in the last 10 days. Latest sale in Egypt at USD 432 PMT FOB, this is up from USD 410 PMT in the last couple of weeks which again was up USD 70 PMT from the last few weeks prior.
Nigeria is closing a tender on Friday January 17th for 3×30,000 MT and it is expected to see prices close to USD 400 PMT FOB which is up from USD 360 PMT FOB just a few weeks ago.
Middle East producers are testing USD 400 PMT and above whilst Brazil now is facing a struggle to buy below USD 400 PMT CFR. Iran is coming back with a tender for 25KT for February shipment having been out of the market due to domestic gas supply issues.
In addition, all eyes are again on India which announced a tender for 1.5 million MT closing on January 23rd for shipment on or before March 5th. India desperately needs urea.
Indian urea sales likely hit 2.3mn-2.4mn t in the first half of this month, with domestic offtake remaining strong after record-high sales in December 2024. Sales to end-users were over 2.3mn t in the first half of January, latest provisional data show, indicating offtake for the month may exceed 4.5mn t. Urea sales were 3.54mn t in January 2024.
Production is on track to reach around 2.5mn t this month, while urea inventories have slipped to around 5.5mn t as of 16 January, the data show. Stocks started the year at around 6.1mn t.
International urea prices have surged in recent weeks, eclipsing levels in 2024, largely driven up by sustained import demand from India because of its strong domestic appetite. Sales likely hit a fresh record-high for an individual month at 5.2mn t in December. Market participants are keenly awaiting the results from Indian importer and supplier RCF's urea purchase tender, which closes on 23 January.
Lurking in the background is China which has given zero evidence that they will be exporting anything soon although market talks are rife, some predicting resumption early March with others insisting on May once the domestic season in China is over.
In the meantime the urea price is on fire and it looks to keep going up for the immediate future.
On the processed phosphate side the most notable phosphate market activity was the settlement of phosphoric acid contracts for Q1 supply to India at $1,055/t P2O5 CFR, down $5/t from 2024 Q4. Other than that India is not likely to get into a buying mood until late February or early March. Current DAP price is assessed at around the USD 630ish PMT CFR with buyers citing affordability issues. Similarly, off-season Brazil buyin is muted and there was a report that a small Russian MAP cargo had changed hands at USD 630 PMT CFR which is at the lower range of the assessed price.
The Chinese government is urging producers to keep on producing in an effort to lower prices in the domestic market. However, noon-integrated producers claim that they are already at rock bottom with some MAP producers losing money. Apparently there is ample stocks in the domestic system thus some producers may elect to reduce production levels.
Due to lack of availability in combination with lack of demand processed phosphate prices are expected to hold current levels in the immediate future. Potash prices were largely unchanged this week as slow spot demand restricted movement.
The MOP market was focused on the US as the long-awaited fill prices were released on 10 January. Demand was strong as buyers and sellers awaited potential tariffs from the Trump administration. Brazilian import prices held at a range of $305-310/t CFR this week, staying at their highest levels since August 2024. Spot demand remains sluggish, as the market experienced significant forward sales at the end of last year. Offers for February and March are ongoing, with prices sitting between $310-320/t CFR. The Southeast Asian MOP market experienced another quiet week as the peak of the tender season is yet to begin. Sellers continue to target prices at $300/t CFR and higher as palm oil prices are expected to support demand in the coming weeks. In India, the negotiations for the 180-day MOP contract for 2025 have yet to begin, with neither producers nor Indian importers approaching one another at the time of writing 16 January. In the meantime, MOP volumes are steadily being imported at the previous price of $283-285/t CFR. Potash prices in the US are expected to increase ahead of Trump's inauguration as the market grows increasingly wary of potential tariffs.
Amid healthy supply on both sides of the Suez, ammonia prices remain under varying degrees of pressure across most regions, with global demand almost completely limited to NW Europe at present. February’s Tampa settlement could see at least a $30-40/t decline on the $538/t CFR agreed for January. Unsubstantiated talk that the 1.3 Mt/year Gulf Coast Ammonia (GCA) facility in Texas City may soon commence exports could well impose sizable downward pressure on prices, though the suggestion appears but a rumour for the time being.
Jan 16 (Reuters) – A Brazilian agribusiness consultancy on Thursday slightly raised its soybean output forecast for the 2024/25 crop year ahead of a countrywide expedition to survey fields.
Agroconsult told a press conference local farmers will reap a record 172.4 million metric tons, compared with the 172.2 million tons forecast before. It kept plantings on 47.5 million hectares (117.375 million acres), the largest ever soybean area for the world's biggest producer and exporter.
Factors contributing to expectations of unprecedented high supplies include good climate in most regions and satisfactory planting conditions in key areas, which will support yields in large producing states including Mato Grosso.
Risks to the crop, which farmers are now beginning to reap from fields, include excessive rains in central Brazil, which is already hampering harvesting work, according to Agroconsult.
"Everyone knows that crops can lose weight if not reaped when ready," Andre Pessoa, Agroconsult partner, told the press conference, referring to farms which have lately received too much rain.
Dry weather in southern Brazil, in addition, will reduce yields in large producing states like Rio Grande do Sul to levels lower than last year, Agroconsult predicted.
Jan 16 (Reuters) – Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures fell more than 2% on Thursday as improving weather outlooks for crop areas of Argentina and expectations of a large Brazilian soy harvest triggered profit-taking, traders said.
CBOT March soybeans SH25 settled down 23-3/4 cents, or 2.3%, at $10.19 per bushel, finding support near the contract's 100-day moving average. The March contract has retreated from a three-month high recorded on Tuesday at $10.64.
CBOT March soymeal SMH25 ended Thursday down $7.60, or 2.5%, at $294.40 per short ton and March soyoil BOH25 fell 1.24 cents, or 2.7%, at 45.03 cents per pound.
Forecasts called for weekend showers in Argentina and marginally cooler temperatures next week, potentially easing crop stress in the world's top exporter of soymeal and soyoil.
Argentina's largest agricultural groups asked the government to offer tax relief for the sector, which they said was in a critical situation due to drought and low crop prices.
Meanwhile, Brazilian agribusiness consultancy Agroconsult raised its forecast of the country's soybean crop to a record 172.4 million metric tons, from 172.2 million previously, ahead of a crop tour.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the week ended Jan. 9 at 569,100 metric tons, in line with trade expectations for 300,000 to 800,000 tons. EXP/SOY
In addition, under its daily reporting rules, the USDA confirmed private sales of 132,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China.
Malaysian palm oil futures FCPOc3 fell for a third-straight session and ended at their lowest closing price in more than three months, dragged down by weakness in rival vegetable oils and muted demand. POI/
Jan 16 (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar weakened against the yen on Thursday, as softer-than-expected U.S. economic data and growing confidence for a Bank of Japan interest-rate hike sent it tumbling to a near one-month low against the Japanese currency.
Recent remarks from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and his deputy Ryozo Himino have made clear that a hike will at least be discussed at next week's policy meeting. Markets see about a 79% chance of a 50 basis point increase. IRPR
Japan's annual wholesale inflation held steady at 3.8% in December on stubbornly high food costs, data showed on Thursday.
The greenback was down 0.81% against the yen JPY=EBS at 155.2, its lowest since Dec. 19.
"We anticipated that there would be a nuanced U.S. dollar behavior, that [it] would likely be stronger relative to a number of currencies, but would be weaker relative to the Japanese yen," said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist, at Invesco U.S. "I think the general direction for JPY and the general direction for the dollar suggests that we will have a stronger yen to dollar."
The dollar was weaker against the euro EUR=EBS, which rose 0.1% to $1.03, as traders digested a slew of mixed economic news to gauge the outlook for the Federal Reserve's rate cuts this year.
U.S. retail sales rose 0.4% last month after upward revisions the previous month, data from the Commerce Department's Census Bureau showed.
Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, but remained at levels showing a healthy labor market.
The Philadelphia Fed Business Index, which jumped to 44.3 in January, was the lone surprise as the forecast was for a reading of minus 5.
That left U.S. dollar index – a measure of the value of the greenback relative to a basket of foreign currencies – down 0.05% at 108.97.
Amo Sahota, director at Klarity FX in San Francisco, said Wednesday's softer consumer prices data continues to drive the markets' tone, driving expectations that the Fed would still be pushing towards two rate cuts this year.
But the sign of disinflation is happening when inflation could re-escalate, depending on the incoming administration's trade policy.
"The markets are generally in a slightly more upbeat mood, but in a holding pattern here until we get through Monday," said Sahota.
That's when Donald Trump returns to the White House with some policies analysts expect will boost growth as well as increase price pressure.
Another focus for markets on Thursday, was the nomination hearing of Trump's choice of Scott Bessent to head the Treasury Department.
Bessent is expected to keep a leash on U.S. deficits and to use tariffs as a negotiating tool, mitigating the expected inflationary impact of economic policies expected from the Trump administration.
"So far, he hasn't really said anything too far away from what we're kind of expecting," Sahota said. "This is a government … which needs to resolve itself on spending. So, we're looking at government spending to come down. They really want to implement back in the tax cuts, we've seen that headline come through."
Traders who have been growing more worried about inflation responded with relief to Wednesday's U.S. data, buying stocks and sending benchmark 10-year Treasury yields US10YT=RR down more than 13 basis points.
Treasury yields slipped on Thursday, after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said three or four interest cuts this year were still possible if U.S. economic data weakened further.
Sterling GBP=D3 was down 0.13% at $1.2228 against the dollar, having also earlier dropped sharply against the yen on Thursday as investors focused on monetary policy divergence after last week's selloff in gilts and the pound.
China's yuan, seen on the front lines of tariff risk, was pinned near the weak end of its trading band at 7.3316. CNY/
Good day, Francisco
Market updates
Have a good weekend!
■ India urea
RCF has invited CFR India or FOB offers for the purchase of an unspecified quantity of bulk granular or prilled urea to be dispatched from loading ports to India’s West and East Coasts by 5 March 2025. Producers or their authorised representatives and traders/suppliers holding a mandate from producers shall submit their offers by 23 January 2025. Those shall be valid until 31 January 2025.
Urea offers may hover around $420—430/t CFR India under RCF’s purchase tender closing on 23 January 2025, according to market players. Reminder: NFL signed letters of intent (LoIs) to purchase by tender closed on 19 December 2024 around 187,000 t of urea at $369.75/t CFR India’s West Coast. The fertilizer will depart from loading ports for India’s West Coast by 10 February 2025. NFL failed to source urea for delivery to India’s East Coast.
■ Turkiye CAN
Gemlik is making CAN at full capacity. The company is only fulfilling its obligations under old contracts and offering nothing for export in the absence of export quotas for Q1 2025. Gemlik sold some CAN into Ukraine and Italy at $255/t FOB Turkiye in bulk for January shipment. The supplier also closed some deals for AN with Ukrainian customers at $315/t FOB Turkiye in big bags for the same month of shipment. It appears that some Turkish companies still have some CAN allowed for export despite the lack of export quotas for Q1 2025. They are asking just over $250/t FOB Turkiye in bulk for January—February shipment of CAN.
■ Egypt urea
Trade in Egyptian urea has been less active this week in comparison with the previous one. MOPCO has sold 10,000 t of the granular fertilizer at $432/t FOB Egypt for February shipment. Reminder: in nine days of January 2025, Egyptian producers sold 90,000 t of January—February-shipped granular urea at $404—430/t FOB Egypt and 15,000 t of the February-dispatched prilled grade at $410/t FOB Egypt. Many Egyptian urea makers have sold out of their January-shipped product, trading sources say. Asking prices for February-shipped granular urea from Egyptian companies have been running at $435—440/t FOB Egypt. NCIC closed a sales tender for different fertilizers on 8 January. The company was aiming to sell by tender 5,000 t of granular urea with the target price of $435/t FOB Egypt. However, the price has apparently been exorbitant for customers, and no urea has been auctioned off. It seems that traders have mostly restocked with the Egyptian fertilizer for now. Besides, as January shipments of the fertilizer are sold out in Egypt, market players are currently awaiting the results of the new urea purchase tender in India closing on 23 January to see the market trend direction before closing deals for more of the February-shipped product. Netbacks from asking/indicative prices for the granular fertilizer in Poland, Spain and the United Kingdom have been $432/t FOB Egypt, $430—440/t FOB Egypt and $435—445/t FOB Egypt respectively. MOPCO may have continued operating all of its three granular urea lines at 90% capacity, while HFC, NCIC and KIMA are making the fertilizer in full swing. Abu Qir is running its granular and prilled urea plants at 100% capacity. The operational status of EFC and AlexFert was unclear at press time. In 10 days of January 2025, Egyptian producers shipped 81,300 t of urea from Damietta to the global market, which is around 11% less than in the same period of December 2024. The cargoes went to Europe, Turkiye and Israel.
■ Brazil phosphates
Trade in MAP 11:52/12:52 has been absent from the Brazilian market this week as farmers are uninterested in the fertilizer at the moment. Suppliers have been offering MAP 11:52/12:52 at the same prices of $630—635/t CFR Brazil as last week, but no deals have taken place yet. At the same time, the availability of the fertilizer to customers is still low, according to a market player. Considering all the above, WFM has left the weekly MAP price assessment unrevised at $630—635/t СFR Brazil.
Morning. On Int'l paper, Mar AG traded low/mid-$380s, Feb Egypt $2 up from Tues after news of higher phys sales. In Nola, Feb/Mar values supported in mid-$360s, but late Q2 months considerably discounted.
AG
Jan $376//$385
Feb $385//$396
Mar $384//$388 – traded $383-84-85
Apr $375//$383
Q2 $377 Offer
cfr Brazil
Jan $380//$388
Feb $385//$400
Mar $380//$395
Egypt
Jan $415//$424
Feb $410//$425 – traded $417
Mar $400//$420
Apr/May $415 Offer
Nola
Phys: Feb traded $365; Mar $368
Jan $352//$360
Feb $365//$370
Mar $363/$370 – traded $369
Apr $355//$367
May $340//$352
Jun $320//$330 – traded $325
UAN Nola
Jan $232//$250
Feb $253//$265
Mar $260//$275
May $247//$255
Q2 $245//$255
DAP Nola
Phys: Jan traded $583
Jan $587//$595
Feb $587//$595
Mar $585//$590
Q2 $545//$580