Jan 13 (Reuters) – Argentina's soybean and corn crops will have to endure a heat wave over the next few days that will affect their yields, leading meteorologist German Heinzenknecht said on Monday, before rains bring some relief by the start of the weekend.
Argentina, a major world supplier of soy, corn and wheat, has seen its main agricultural region face a prolonged dry spell since the onset of the Southern Hemisphere's summer last month.
Heinzenknecht, a meteorologist at the CCA climate consultancy, predicted that a front of rain would come in on Friday, ushering in the start of a normalization in rainfall.
"This is the toughest week," Heinzenknecht said, forecasting highs of 36 degrees Celsius (97 degrees Fahrenheit) and up to 40 C (104 F) in some parts of the country.
"Adding in the lack of water, as it hasn't rained in the core agricultural zone since Dec. 23, its an explosive combination," he said.
While Heinzenknecht predicted some 25 to 40 millimeters (1.6 inches) of rainfall across some parts of the key agricultural heartlands on Friday, he said the rainfall would not be even and would come too late to avert damage to crop yields.
"I don't think the crops will come through unscathed," Heinzenknecht said.
The country's Rosario grains exchange currently expects it will produce some 53 million to 53.5 million metric tons of soy and 50 million to 53 million tons of corn this season. Argentina is the world's top exporter of soybean oil and meal and the third-largest supplier of corn.
Heinzenknecht said the rains could mark a change in weather patterns that would see more normal rainfall through February.
"The situation will become more normal as the summer progresses," he said. "There is light at the end of the tunnel."
[Urea] On January 14, the daily output of the urea industry was 185,900 tons, an increase of 0.36 million tons from the previous working day and an increase of 234,000 tons from the same period last year; today's start-up rate was 83.03%, an increase of 7.99% from 75.04% last year.
Was just hoping to check a couple of price indications with you guys — hearing NCIC awarded 1,500t SOP for end-Jan loading at $590-600pt fob. Also heard China SOP export prices anywhere from $550pt fob up to $585pt fob with Taiwan at $560-570pt fob. Was wondering how it compares with your price info
Just before new year I have asked for granular Can 27% was ar fob usd 260 indication subject to quota permission
The international merchant ammonia market has commenced 2025 fundamentally long on a strong supply situation in key export hubs and seasonally weak demand from large industrial buyers in Northwest Europe and Northeast Asia.
With downward price pressure in the Middle East and Southeast Asia gathering pace on sluggish order books, discounted cargoes from the former are understood to have been offered into the West for February arrival.
Even with the closure of the southern end of the Red Sea to most maritime traffic and the higher freight costs and longer delivery times, such volumes are likely to appeal to buyers who have met pockets of resistance to lower prices from suppliers in North Africa.
Although no such East to West spot business has yet been confirmed, the arrival of spot cargoes from the Arabian Gulf and/or Southeast Asia would likely prompt producers in the West – particularly in Algeria and Egypt – to reduce their price targets for next business.
As is often the case when bearish conditions emerge, players keep prices and price targets close to their chests. Indeed, while at least 90,000t of spot volume for January shipment has changed hands of late, lower numbers were heard, but not confirmed.
In recent business, Algeria’s Sorfert sold around 40,000t to Yara for lifting across three shipments this month, while Malaysia’s Petronas sold 10,000t of formula-priced volume into India, and Trammo just under 7,500t into Brazil.
The latter also appears to have secured some Turkish volume in a move that looks to have, in turn, created space for the discharge of a 2024 cargo to the vendor.
Elsewhere in Turkey, EuroChem has been linked to the sale of a 23,400t spot cargo that has just left the Baltic, with buyers in that country heard targeting the low-$500s pt cfr for deliveries this month and next.
While higher prices for urea and other ammonia derivatives such as nitrates may offer some short-term support in Europe – where natgas prices remain well above historical levels – the robust supply outlook both sides of Suez should offset such any such impact.
Urea spot manufacturers rose steadily from Friday to weekend, the ex-factory price of Shandong Henan was 1530-1560, and Shaanxi Shenmu Longhua resumed production, bidding 1450 for automobile transportation and 1400 for railway transportation; The transaction side was affected by the market boost, and the weekend transaction improved, and the market inquiries increased, mostly for agriculture, futures and spot traders to take goods.
As of January 10, the daily output of the urea industry was 175,400 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 23,500 tons over the same period last year, and 78.32% was started today, up 8.17% from 70.15% in the same period last year. In the next two weeks, a number of urea companies will resume production, and it is expected that the daily output will increase rapidly in mid-to-late January.
According to the data of fertilizer Yitong on the inventory side, the inventory of urea factories in the country was 1.8025 million tons, an increase of 176,000 tons from last week. Excluding the factories that stopped production, the national factory inventory was 1.7045 million tons, an increase of 176,000 tons from last week.
At the international end, India issued a new round of bidding, with 500,000 tons on the east coast and 1 million tons on the west coast.
The domestic legal inspection policy at the export end continues to tighten, in addition to urea, other compound fertilizer exports also have a tightening trend, the current internal and external price difference is too large, and the Spring Festival is approaching, the export policy is difficult to change.
The demand side will usher in the end of the year after this week environmental protection and transportation problems, compound fertilizer plants and plywood factories have gradually begun to holiday, some regional compound fertilizer plants due to the finished products are not smooth, inventory accumulation, has ordered to shut down, in addition to the current business into the hedging, the overall market demand is still insufficient.
The current price of the profit side of most urea enterprises profits are low, most of the enterprises have been close to the full cost, in recent months the price of coal has fallen more, the cost of enterprises has been reduced accordingly.
On the futures side, the urea futures UR2505 contract rose slightly on Friday, closing at 1669, up 9 points from the previous trading day.
Comprehensive analysis: urea in the past two weeks in the early maintenance of enterprises to resume production, Nissan and inventory will continue to increase, compound fertilizer plant finished product sales have not improved, finished product accumulation under the part of the compound fertilizer plant has ordered shutdown, plywood plant shutdown time this year in advance, environmental protection and logistics problems at the end of the year will also affect demand, the overall demand has not improved, the supply will usher in a large increase, futures rose slightly in the later stage of the hedging of the current business, although the spot transaction has improved, but the terminal flow to the sinking situation in general, this roulette slightly boosted a slight rebound, However, it is difficult to say a reversal under high supply and low demand.
Mosaic India enquiry, jason comments “checked with one factory and one trader, they saying hard to do export due to policy on potassium, and by the way, specs are "K2O 24% min. MgO 6.0% Min. S 16.0% Min. " from China “
China: Delivered prices into China were unchanged at $185-188/t CFR.
Middle East: Sulphur price up on latest tenders and was assessed at $160-170/t.
India: Prices flat at $180-185/t CFR, but upward pressure builds.
Mediterranean: Sulphur prices edge higher.
Indonesia: Sulphur prices flat at $180-185/t CFR but under pressure.
Brazil: Sulphur prices flat at $180-183/t CFR on weak demand.
* Baltic Sea: Sulphur price was assessed up to $140-160/t FOB.
Global urea values have been on a firm footing since early-December, but have rallied in dramatic fashion since the beginning of the year.
Profercy’s World Nitrogen Index is now above 2024 levels and is set to move higher with spot granular urea prices in the east firming in trading today.
In the past week, Egyptian granular urea values have advanced over $25pt to $430pt fob as producers extend order books into February. Middle East spot levels have been established over $380pt fob, matching those seen only briefly in Q1 and Q4 last year. In a sales tender in Indonesia today, bids for a January shipment were over $390pt fob.
Supply cutbacks – most notably in Iran, where no major improvement is expected near-term – and anticipated demand for several markets have supported the gains. February product is available in many key supply hubs, including Nigeria, North Africa, Russia and the Middle East, yet producers are confident.
Notably, the potential for an inquiry for February into March shipments in India has shaped supplier marketing strategies in Russia and the Middle East, forcing buyers in other markets to raise price ideas. Typically, buyers rarely find themselves competing with India in Q1.
Iran’s absence has also bolstered competition for North African and Black Sea material, particularly for shipments to Turkey, while eastern European and Mediterranean markets have been actively sourcing product. With gas-feedstock costs for European nitrogen producers still high, firming offshore urea prices have also allowed regional nitrate suppliers to lift offers in recent days.
As Q1 progresses, US urea demand will also come into focus with developments in India set to impact volumes that could arrive from the east in March and April. While seasonal domestic demand is yet to emerge in a meaningful way, ammonium sulphate and UAN markets are also tight.
Given values have firmed rapidly in a matter of weeks, affordability issues are unsurprisingly being raised. Yet, nitrogen producers are in the driving seat as 2025 gets into gear.
Morning. India issues new tender (1.5m tonnes, ship't by Mar 5th) – Nola values moved up last week to narrow gap on Int'l prices. Mkts framed week close:
AG
Jan $370//$375 – traded $372Fri
_[Jan $366.50-$373 last week]_
Feb $370//$385
Mar $367//$378
_[Mar traded 374 last week]_
Apr $370 Offer
cfr Brazil
Jan $373//$382
_[Jan traded $370last week]_
Feb $370//$385
Mar $370//$380
Egypt
Jan $415//$424
_[Jan traded $415-$418.50 last week]_
Feb $410//$427
_[Feb traded $404-$420 last week]_
Mar $395//$420
Apr $380//$395
Nola
Phys: Jan traded $354-55. Feb $362-63
Jan $348//$360
Feb $365//$370 – traded $365-67 Fri
_[Feb traded 350-367 last week]_
Mar $368/$373 – traded $370 Fri
_[Mar traded $360-$370 last week]_
Apr $365//$370 – traded $365
_[Apr traded $348-$365 last week]_
May $344//$355
Jun $330//$345
UAN Nola
Jan $232//$250
Feb $253//265
Mar $260//$275
May $247//$255 – traded $250
Q2 $245//$255
DAP Nola
Jan $587//$595
Feb $587//$595 – traded $590
Mar $585//$590
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HAPPY NEW YEAR 2025! The upcoming event is FLA2025 Rio de Janeiro (Jan26th-29th,2025). We would like to invite you have a meeting during the conference. If you have available time slot please let us know.
Weekly FOB prices
Ammonium Sulfate (Capro grade):FOB $136(Bulk)-Tianjin Port or River Port
Ammonium Sulfate (Mixed grade Compacted Granular):FOB $140(Bulk)-Tianjin Port
Ammonium Sulfate (Capro grade Compacted Granular):FOB $147(Bulk)-Tianjin Port
Potassium Sulfate (SOP) Powder: FOB $585 (Break Bulk)-Tianjin Port
Potassium Sulfate (SOP) Granular: FOB $590 (Break Bulk)-Tianjin Port
Calcium Nitrate Granular: FOB $175 (Container/Break Bulk)-Tianjin Port
Freight Rate Reference (Break Bulk)
Sao Francisco do Sul, Brazil: $90/mt
Pecem, Brazil: $60/mt
Callao, Peru: $58/mt
Guayaquil, Ecuador: $58/mt
Manzanillo, Mexico: $55-60/mt
Valparaiso, Chile: $80/mt
Durban, South Africa: $48/mt
Freight Rate Reference (Container)
Santos/Paranagua, Brazil: $108-$132/mt
Financial Options: we can offer credit terms of 30-120 days for long-term stable clients. The interest rate will around 6% (annualized)
Upcoming Conference we will attend:
Argus-FLA Rio de Janeiro (Jan26th-29th,2025)
Argus-FAC Cape town, South Africa (Feb10th-12th,2025)
IFA-Monaco,2025 (May12th-14th,2025)
Market Analysis and Summary
UREA
As of January 8, 2025, the total inventory of urea enterprises in Longzhong Data is 1.7394 million tons, up 188,600 tons from last week, up 12.16% from the previous month, and 235.86% from the previous year. The daily output is 175-182k mt, which is a historically high level. The market has continued to fall and bottom out. Downstream procurement has slowed down cautiously. Spot prices have continued to fall to attract orders, and the order collection has boosted them generally. Enterprises continue to accumulate inventory in this cycle, and the mainstream spot price has dropped to 1470-1530rmb/mt.
Ammonium Sulfate
This week, the price of ammonium sulfate (amsul) has firmed. The mainstream delivery price for mixed compacted ammonium sulfate from factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Inner Mongolia to Tianjin Port ranges from RMB 950-970, equivalent to approximately 138-142 FOB. As of Jan 3rd, port inventories reached 685,000 metric tons
Morning. Thin activity on Int'l paper y'day. In Nola, Urea values moved higher, w/ Jan barges creeping toward $350, while gains also seen in DAP ($590+/- on Q1 months).
AG weekly index = $380, Jan Ave = $368.75
Jan $369//$377
Feb $370//$383
Mar $365//$375
Apr $370 Offer
Cfr Brazil weekly index = $382.50, Jan Ave = $375
Jan $370//$380
Feb $367//$380
Mar $367//$380
Egypt weekly index = $417, Jan Ave = $409.25
Jan $415//$424
Feb $410//$425
Mar $390//$410
Apr $380//$395
Nola
Phys: Jan traded $347, $348, $349. Feb $355
Jan $345//$355
Feb $357//$370
Mar $360/$370
Apr $352//$360
May $338//$345
Jun $330//$340
UAN Nola weekly index = $245, Jan Ave = $241.75
Jan $238//$250
Feb $253//265
Mar $260//$275
May $247//$255 – traded $250
Q2 $245//$255
DAP Nola weekly index = $582.50, Jan Ave = $581.25
Phys: Feb traded $588. FH Mar $588
Jan $587//$595 – traded $590
Feb $590//$595
Mar $590//$595 – traded $590
MAP Brazil weekly index = $632.50, Jan Ave = $633.75
Mar $603 Bid
May traded $610
Asia Potash Laos Operations Halted Due to Sinkholes
The Laotian government has instructed a Chinese-owned potash mine,
believed to be responsible for two large sinkholes in Khammouane prov-
ince, to halt its operations until further notice and to fill in the sinkholes.
The first sinkhole, measuring 20 meters (65 feet) wide and 10 meters
(33 feet) deep, appeared on Dec. 4 on farmland in Pak Peng village,
located in the Thakhaek district. A second, smaller sinkhole, about half
the size of the first, formed nearby on Dec. 21.
Local residents suspect that the sinkholes are linked to excavation
activities at a potash mine in Nong Bok district, operated by Sino-Agri
International Potash Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Asia Potash International
Investment (Guangzhou) Co., Ltd.
Despite a month of inspections by the central government, the cause
of the sinkholes remains unclear, but the company has been ordered
to fill both sinkholes.
UREA PRICES KEEP MOVING UP IN TANDEM WITH CLOSURE OF IRAN EXPORTS DUE TO GAS ISSUES, ANOTHER UREA TENDER IN INDIA EXPECTED, AND INCREASED DEMAND COMING FROM THE US, EUROPE AND AUSTRALIA.
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES ARE HOLDING DUE TO LIMITED SUPPLY WITH CHINESE EXPORTS STILL NOT POSSIBLE
-POTASH PRICES WERE STAGNANT THIS WEEK WITH THE PREVIOUS RUN ON PRICES COMING TO A HALT
-AMMONIA PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WITH INCREASED SUPPLIES AVAILABLE
Urea prices are edging upwards with CFR levels in SE Asia approaching USD 400 PMT plus some. India is again reported to be issuing another tender on January 10th in response to the paltry 187,000 MT tender results from the last tender. A granular urea tender in Indonesia closing on January 10th with bids to be valid through the 13th will give further price discovery. Sales of granular urea to both Thailand and Vietnam also saw prices around the USD 400 PMT CFR level.
Egyptian prices have reached USD 430 PMT FOB for February shipment with Turkey driving prices due to closure of all but one unit of Iranian production units due to gas issues in Iran. This is an increase of USD 70 PMT over the past two months. Pardis is reported to be operating but sales only for the domestic market. Although not relevant without exports, FOB levels have been increased to USD 340 PMT. Iran is a major urea producer with total capacity of around 9 million MT with exports around the 5 million MT mark – all this with Iran being a sanctioned country for most markets bar Turkey and Brazil.
Brazil imports of urea in 2024 rose by 1 million MT y/y reaching 8.3 million MT, the highest on record. Oman/Iran, Nigeria and Russia were the largest suppliers each with above 1.5 million MT.
The January-November imports of urea to the US reached 1.03 million MT of which Canada supplied 173,000 MT and from off-shore imports Qatar was the largest at 232,000 MT. January barges last traded at USD 343-345 Per SHort ton FOB NOLA.
With China still being out of exporting, Iran not exporting due to gas shortages, and expected pick up in demand from the US and Europe and possibly Australia, the outlook for urea prices is bullish. Once USD 400 PMT FOB has been reached in the Middle East, now trading in some markets as high as USD 385 PMT FOB, it is not unreasonable to look towards much higher prices in the time to come.
On the processed phosphate side there was a report that Ma'aden had sold 30 KT of DAP to India at the prevailing last sales price of USD 633 PMT CFR. Domestic India sales of DAP is reported to be 9.48 million MT which is less than the 11.1 million MT in 2023. India produced 4.04 million MT in 2024 below the average of 4.25 million MT in the period 2021-2023. Imports in 2024 were just 4.56 million MT. The domestic stock draw in 2024 was close to 800KT. Lots of this reduced imports has to do with limited availability with China restricting exports.
Brazil's combined imports of DAP/MAP/NP/NPK/TSP/SSP reached 12.71 million MT, up 2.3% y/y. However, MAP imports dropped 19% to 4.21 million MT, down from 5.2 million MT in 2023. DAP imports were down 20% y/y at 198,248 MT.
TSP/SSP imports sored with TSP climbing 10% to 1.5 million MT y/y with OCP of Morocco being the major beneficiary with an increase of 58% reaching 1.09 million MT. SSP imports rose 20% to reach 2.64 million MT.
Price upside and downside both seem limited as tight supply offsets limited demand and affordability concerns as phosphates prices remain high compared with downstream agricultural commodities as well as other fertilizer nutrients.
Potash prices were stagnant globally this week as the bullish market momentum from recent months began to show signs of faltering. The Brazilian market held at $305-310/t CFR as spot transactions were hard to come by. Most producers have shifted to selling for February onwards, with offers now starting at $310/t CFR. Despite the limited spot deals, $300/t CFR was rumoured to still be achievable in the market. This was promptly dismissed by many market players. This comes as Brazil’s latest data from GTT reveals record-high volumes of 14 Mt. Standard MOP prices in Southeast Asia were little changed after firming to their highest levels since early April 2024 last week at $290-310/t CFR. Producers remain hopeful of reaching $300/t CFR or higher in the coming weeks, supported by increased demand for palm oil crop usage. Still, one distributor reported difficulty in selling higher than $295/t CFR this week. India saw an uptick in cargoes through the week, with January imports now expecting to be around 120,000 t MOP. Indian importers are still waiting for negotiations to commence. In the interim, volumes will likely continue until the 2024 180-day contract range of $283-285/t CFR.
The slow start to the year continued on ammonia this week, with further transparency needed on both sides of the Suez to determine the extent to which prices are expected to fall through January amid healthy supply and only limited pockets of demand. East of Suez, the Middle East appears long, with some producers now heard offering at levels 10-15% below the $400/t FOB mark. That news is likely to be met with positivity by importers in India where, although demand there remains limited for the time being, delivered CFR values do also seem to be easing as phosphate manufacturers deliberate between producing NPKs or DAP/MAP. Prices in most markets should register declines through January, though the extent to which benchmarks will ease is yet unclear.