@everyone There is a rumor that the Nitrogen Association can speak on behalf of the urea enterprises to export under appropriate circumstances, but this information has been confirmed as false.
Morning. Nearby tone on Urea remains supportive, with some resistance emerging March onwards – Int'l paper saw Mar AG trade $380, while Mar Nola paper dipped under $370 late on.
AG
Jan $375//$383
Feb $382//$397
Mar $375//$382 – traded $380
Apr $360//$380
Q2 $377 Offer
cfr Brazil
Jan $380//$390
Feb $385//$400
Mar $380//$395
Egypt
Jan $415//$424
Feb $407//$430
Mar $395//$420
Apr $380//$400
Nola
Phys: Loaded traded $364
Jan $352//$360
Feb $365//$370
Mar $367/$373 – traded $369
Apr $355//$367
May $340//$352
Jun $325//$342
UAN Nola
Jan $232//$250
Feb $253//$265
Mar $260//$275
May $247//$255
Q2 $245//$255
DAP Nola
Phys: Jan traded $583
Jan $587//$595
Feb $587//$595
Mar $585//$590
Q2 $545//$580
520 into Ceyhan for 15kt
Many thanks. Deal closed in AG at $395/mt FOB. Producers asking 400. Expectations offers into RCF tender will be higher. ANd here is a note form one of my Brazil editors – Brazil urea strengthened to $395/mt CFR from last week’s $380/mt. A reported transaction at $400/mt CFR could not be confirmed at midweek, but sellers have moved offers up to $405-$410/mt CFR.
LONDON (ICIS)—In Egypt, MOPCO sold 10,000 tonnes of granular urea at $432/tonne FOB for Feb loading to an open destination.
Luca sold 2 grand urea cargoes in to Mexico
that equates to FOB ME flat + freight
LONDON (ICIS)—The ICIS TTF price rose again today after easing slightly on Tuesday as bullish drivers such as cold weather in Europe and emptying gas storage combined with concerns over US production and other risks. The ICIS TTF February '25 assessment is trading around $14.27/MMBtu, or €47.2/MWh.
Freezing weather forecasts for next week in the US could be feeding into US production-issue expectations. Reports that the TurkStream pipeline may have been targeted in an attack related to Russia's war with Ukraine were dismissed by Ukrainian authorities.
Over 10 LNG cargoes have been diverted to Europe instead of heading to Asia so far in 2025, driven by premium prices in Europe and weak demand in Asia – ICIS News
[Urea] On January 15, the daily output of the urea industry was 186,300 tons, the same as the previous working day (corrected: 186,300tons), an increase of 24,400 tons compared with the same period last year; today's start-up rate was 83.18%, an increase of 9.02% compared with 74.16% last year.
Morning. Int'l paper sentiment continues to run firm amid higher AG/Brazil phys sales reported. Mar Nola paper repeat traded inside $370-$374 range. Mkts framed:
AG
Jan $374//$382 – traded $378
Feb $383//$398
Mar $378//$395
Apr $360//$380
Q2 $377 Offer
cfr Brazil
Jan $380//$390 – traded $385
Feb $385//$400
Mar $380//$395
Egypt
Jan $415//$424
Feb $405//$425 – traded $415
Mar $395//$415
Apr $380//$400
Nola
Phys: Mar traded $372
Jan $352//$360
Feb $365//$370 – traded $368
Mar $369/$374 – traded $370-$374
Apr $360//$370
May $340//$355
Jun $325//$342
UAN Nola
Jan $232//$250
Feb $253//265
Mar $260//$275
May $247//$255
Q2 $245//$255
DAP Nola
Jan $587//$595
Feb $587//$595
Mar $585//$590
Jan 14 (Reuters) – The dollar weakened against the euro on Tuesday but stayed near its highest level in more than two years as cooler-than-expected inflation data following last week's strong jobs report made it hard to project the Federal Reserve's next moves on interest rates.
Data showed U.S. producer prices increased moderately in December. Investors had already started to scale back bets on rate cutsas potential U.S. tariffs remained in the spotlight.
The greenback pared gains later in the session as traders cautiously awaited Wednesday's consumer price index report. Investors have been closely watching economic data to see if it supports the Fed's cautious stance on rates.
"It's possible that traders are hedging the other side of the market now before CPI tomorrow, so we're seeing some pre-release volatility that's keeping the dollar a touch depressed," said Helen Given, associate director of trading at Monex USA in Washington. "Tariff stories are the primary driver, it appears, for price action today."
Traders are pricing the first rate cut in September, but less than the 50 basis points the Fed projected in December.
With President-elect Donald Trump set to begin a second term next week, the focus has been on his policies that analysts expect will boost growth and price pressures.
The threat of tariffs along with fewer Fed rate cuts priced in has lifted Treasury yields and supported the greenback.
However, on Tuesday the market refocused on the chance that U.S. tariffs may be raised gradually, after a Bloomberg reportsuggested the U.S. could take a measured approach.
Trump's Treasury pick Scott Bessent is expected to keep a leash on U.S. deficits and use tariffs as a negotiating tool, mitigating the expected inflationary impact of the U.S. economic policy.
Brad Bechtel, global head of FX, at Jefferies, said while the CPI report is important, "all eyes (are on) Trump and the new administration."
Still, Matt Weller, head of market research at StoneX, said Wednesday's CPI reading "will ultimately be more significant for the central bank and therefore traders, who will be looking for a corresponding cool reading as a green light to buy up risk assets."
The dollar index =USD, which measures the greenback versus six other currencies, was down 0.14% at 109.25, shy of the 26-month high of 110.17 it reached on Monday. It hit 114.78 in October 2022, its highest since 2002.
The euro EUR=EBS was up 0.51% at $1.0297. It touched $1.0177 on Monday, its lowest level since November 2022.
The single currency dropped more than 6% in 2024 as investors fretted about tariff threats and the monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the European Central Bank.
The British pound GBP=D3, down 0.04% at $1.2198 against the dollar, also touched a 2-1/2-month low versus the euro as concerns about Britain's fiscal challenges continued to weigh.
The dollar rose 0.26% against the yen JPY=EBS to 157.89, with traders bracing for next week's Bank of Japan policy meeting, for which markets are pricing in 57% chance of a hike.
Some analysts flagged that the most important forex market battleground right now is the dollar/yuan – as the People's Bank of China (PBOC) manages to hold the line even as depreciation pressure intensifies.
The PBOC has unveiled a flurry of measures in recent days to support its weak currency.
The yuan CNH=D3 was flat, changing hands at 7.3454 per dollar on Tuesday.
By the way Bagfas is offering CAN granular 27% FOB BANDIRMA usd 265
Morning. Slightly muted reaction on Int'l paper y'day following RCF news – Offers pulled back leaving wide Bid//Ask ranges. In Nola, Jan/Feb phys barges traded $5-$10 higher. Mkts framed:
AG
Jan $370//$377
Feb $370//$387
Mar $370//$385
cfr Brazil
Jan $373//$384
Feb $375//$390
Mar $375//$390
Egypt
Jan $415//$424
Feb $410//$430
Mar $395//$420
Apr $380//$400
Nola
Phys: Jan traded $365. Feb $368
Jan $350//$360 – traded $353 (1k)
Feb $365//$370
Mar $370/$374
Apr $365//$370
May $344//$358
Jun $330//$345
UAN Nola
Jan $232//$250
Feb $253//265
Mar $260//$275
May $247//$255
Q2 $245//$255
DAP Nola
Jan $587//$595
Feb $587//$595
Mar $585//$590
LONDON (ICIS)–German fertilizer company SKW Piesteritz needs shut down one of its two ammonia plants for an indefinite period because of cheap fertilizer supplies from Russia, as well as Germany’s high costs and unfavorable political conditions, it said.
sounds good – the Navigator Global that indicated has fixed a Bontang cargo with Trafi and headed back West but the Salmon Roll should still be in play as and when hopefully