Morning phil – good fla and shame didn't see more of you
On paper this week:
AG
Mar traded $400-$412
Brazil
Mar traded $400- 410
Jul $375-70
Egypt
Feb traded $420-$444
Mar $430
Apr $404
Friday, 31 January 2025 (Acerto)
Urea
India: RCF has issued Letter of Intents (LoI) totalling 558,900t of urea under RCF’s 23 January urea import tender, higher than the total of 505,900t initially reported, as Aditya Birla (ABGL) has confirmed a further 52,500t.
A total of 461,500t is to be shipped to East Coast India (ECI) at $427/t CFR and 97,400t to West Coast India (WCI) at $422/t CFR, with cargoes to load by 5 March.
The breakdown by supplier is as follow:
– Ameropa – 52,400t for WCI;
– OQ Trading – 45,000t for ECI;
– Sun International – 50,000t for ECI;
– Liven Nutrients – 47,500t for ECI;
– Midgulf – 45,000t and 31,500t, both for ECI;
– Quest – 50,000t for ECI;
– Fertistream – 45,000t for ECI;
– Aditya Birla (ABGL) – 50,000t and 52,500t, both for ECI;
– Indagro – 45,000t for WCI and 45,000t for ECI automatically awarded.
Total: 558,900t
Good day, Francisco
Market updates
Have a good weekend!
■ Egypt urea
Trade in Egyptian urea has revived somewhat this week, but it has been not as brisk as before. MOPCO and Abu Qir have sold 22,000—24,000 t and 10,000 t of granular urea at $432—435/t FOB and $433—435/t FOB Egypt, respectively, for February shipment this week. Reminder: MOPCO sold 10,000 t of granular urea at $432/t FOB Egypt for the same month of dispatch a fortnight ago. Some local companies have been asking $440/t FOB Egypt for the granular product this week. The prilled grade has been up for sale at $420/t FOB Egypt. On 28 January, NCIC closed a sales tender for fertilizers including 5,000 t of February-shipped granular urea. Rumour has it that the highest bid under the tender has reached $432/t FOB Egypt. WFM will follow up the results of the tender. Traders seem to be purchasing some amounts of the Egyptian fertilizer from time to time amid the forthcoming urea application in Europe and subsequent buying interest from regional customers, but the former are cautious about buying large quantities of the product before the announcement of the final results of the purchase tender in India. Netbacks from asking/indicative prices for the granular fertilizer in Poland, Italy and Ireland have been running at $432—441/t FOB Egypt, $435—445/t FOB Egypt and $398/t FOB Egypt respectively. MOPCO is supposedly making urea at all of its three lines at 90% capacity. HFC, AlexFert, NCIC and KIMA are manufacturing the granular fertilizer smoothly. Abu Qir is producing prilled and granular urea at 100% capacity. The operational status of EFC was unknown at press time. In 25 days of January 2025, Egyptian producers scheduled around 215,600 t of urea for shipment from Damietta port to the world market, which is around 14% less than in the corresponding period of December 2024. The fertilizer went to Europe, Turkiye and Israel.
■ Brazil phosphates
The Brazilian phosphate market has been flat after last week. MAP 11:52/12:52 has still been available at $630—635/t CFR Brazil. However, trade in the fertilizer has been slow as MAP affordability for customers stays low. Moreover, market players have reported a river in Brazil will be closed to shipments until early March. Considering all the above, WFM has left the weekly MAP price assessment unrevised at $630—635/t СFR Brazil.
-UREA PRICES KEEP GOING UP AND THE QUESTION IS FOR HOW LONG AND HOW HIGH WITH THE CONTINUED ABSENCE OF CHINESE EXPORTS
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES ARE HOLDING THE FORT WITH LIMITED DEMAND MET WITH LIMITED SUPPLY WITH CHINESE EXPORTS STILL RESTRICTED
-POTASH PRICES IN THE US ARE EXPECTED TO GO UP WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF PRESIDENT TRUMP'S IMPOSING 25% TARIFFS
-AMMONIA SUPPLY IS OVERTAKING DEMAND AND THE OUTLOOK FOR PRICES IS BEARISH BOTH EAST AND WEST OF SUEZ
Global urea prices keep moving up and producers therefore hesitated to take part in the most recent urea India tender requesting shipments by March 5th. Consequently, at the time of this writing India's buying agent RCF looks to be securing only 558 KT vs the desired volume of 1.5 million MT. This is the second time that India's urea tender failed to secure desired tonnage since the December urea tender resulted in securing only 187,000 MT. Question now of course is if and when India will again attempt to secure additional volumes with some indicating another tender with shipments in March/April.
Price discovery on the tender resulted in the lowest for the West Coast at USD 422 PMT CFR and the East Coast at USD 427 PMT CFR. The majority of offers were substantially higher than this thus price matching was not an option for most of the offers. However, these prices are around USD 50 PMT than the tender prices in December, but producers and traders are looking for even higher prices in the imminent future.
Current FOB Middle East price is now at USD 415 PMT FOB with expectations of higher prices as the days go by. Egypt has reached USD 435 PMT and Iran accomplished USD 365 PMT FOB for March shipment. SE Asia producers are also achieving USD 415 PMT or above with one CaMau/Vietnam cargo reportedly sold at this price.
The outlook for the urea price is bullish since there is no indication that China will enter exports anytime soon. Expected strong demand in both Australia and Thailand over the next 6 months will help prices stay strong. However, some traders are reluctant to commit to long positions with the fear of China coming into the market some time in March/April. If so happens it is expected that the urea price will come under pressure. Factory inventory in China is reported at the highest in history vs same previous time at 1.6295 million MT. Warehouse inventory is currently at 9,075 lots which indicates a relatively sufficient market supply which is putting pressure on futures contracts. In summary, we will surely see Chinese exports of urea, question is when?
Togliattiazot in Russia reached a record urea production in 2024 with 1.78 million MT with the inclusion of their new 800 KT prilled urea plant. This has resulted in overtaking ACRON at 1.5 million MT of urea production.
On another related issue, China exported a record 17.1 million MT of AS in 2024, up from 11 million year on year. Major buyers were Brazil with 6.27 million MT which mainly uses the AS in bulk blends combined with TSP for the ever increasing soybean acreage in Brazil. Other major buyers were Indonesia, Vietnam, and Myanmar (mostly for mining) – all buying in excess of 1 million MT.
Processed phosphate prices are holding the fort on prices with limited demand off-set by limited supplies. Again, China has not been exporting since December 2024 when the government implemented export restrictions to cater towards decreased prices in the domestic market. A major DAP tender in Ethiopia where China was supposed to deliver 400 KT appears to be cancelled bar a couple of 60 KT vessels. Demand for DAP in Pakistan is muted due to drought, unfavorable crop prices and difficulties in increasing prices on DAP to secure margins. Offers of USD 645 PMT CFR were rebuffed.
Other major markets are also quiet notably Brazil which is facing affordability issues. MAP prices in Brazil are unchanged at USD 630-635 PMT CFR. This price has remained for 7 months since July 2024. Brazilian buyers are looking to secure alternative processed products like NPK/NP/TSP/SSP to counter high MAP prices.
Rumours in the market also indicate that negotiations are ongoing between OCP of Morocco and Indian buyers to secure 2-3 million MT of DAP. Negotiations are apparently at a standstill with OCP requesting around 900 KT of TSP to be included in the package. What is clear is that India is desperate for DAP with low domestic stocks.
The outlook for prices on processed phosphates is neutral. Price upside and downside both seem limited as tight supply offsets limited demand and affordability concerns as phosphates prices remain high compared with downstream agricultural commodities as well as other fertilizer nutrients.
NEWS FLASH
One significant project news was announced this week in that UBE Corp of Japan decided to close both the Japanese industrial operations in March 2028 as well as the Thailand unit by March 2027. The Thailand operation will stop producing caprolactam and ammonium sulphate. Adding on to the closure of the PTT Asahi Chemicals closure in 2024, imports of ammonia to Thailand will no longer be required with a total loss over the two operations closer to 500 KT. The UBE Japanese imports of ammonia amounted to 330 KT. Obviously, these closures will be significant in terms of future trade flows of ammonia.
In other major news this week the European Commission announced proposed import tariffs on all Russian and Belarus fertilizers except for ammonia. The tariffs, if approved by the European Council, will be introduced on July 1st 2025 with an annual increase starting between Euro 40-45 PMT and in 2028 starting at between Euro 315-430 PMT. All this on top of the already imposed 6.5% duty. The EU 27 states imported 1.8 million MT DAP/MAP/NPK/NPS from Russia in the January-October 2024 period which represented 25% of the imported 7.4 million MT. The consensus is that trade flows will shift with more OCP Morocco products finding its way to Europe with Russian fertilizers will have to find other outlets. This could lead to higher imports of urea from the Middle East and other origins. Consequently, fertilizer prices will increase and put further hardship on European farmers. A company like Yara sells around 10% of its urea production in Europe but 80% of its nitrate production in Europe. They will now have an open order book with higher prices.
On potash, this week’s annual fertilizer conference in Rio de Janeiro confirmed expectations of price increases in Brazil, though the potential extent of the increase remained a topic of debate. Granular potash import prices remained steady, with limited buying activity for the 2025/2026 soybean crop this week. Brazilian potash prices stayed at $310-315/t CFR, with producers aiming for $350/t CFR by June. The favourable affordability has spurred forward buying in recent months, but the weak Brazilian real and lack of urgency to buy or sell kept deals to a minimum this week. Asia Potash’s production halt and BPC’s Soligorsk-4 mine upgrades, resulting in an estimated 0.9-1 Mt production cut, have generated minor concerns among some market players about tightening supply and potential price increases amid strong demand. Still, CRU does not expect this to support major price increases. President Trump's proposed 25% tariff on Canadian potash imports was the key topic of discussion at the Rio conference, with most market players anticipating a rise in domestic prices should it go ahead. The US imports about 80% of its potash from Canada. A 25% tariff would raise costs and likely make Russia the lowest-cost supplier to the US. All eyes are firmly on 1 February for further clarification. In the meantime, the US MOP market has started to strengthen after Nutrien's recent $25/st price increase, signalling renewed strength in pricing Thailand imported 908,300 MT of potash in 2024 which is 28% higher year on year. One of the reasons is that potash became affordable thus importers took advantage of this and increased purchases accordingly. Laos origin represented by Chinese owners Lao Kaiyuan and Asia Potash increased sales to Thailand by 85% at 247,300 MT. Quantities from Laos are expected to increase exponentially in the years to come due to its proximity and on par quality with traditional suppliers like BASF, BPC and Canpotex.
On the project side Agrimin's potash project at Lake MacKay, Western Australia has taken another step towards a final investment decision after the WA environment ministry gave state approval for the development of the project subject to compliance with numerous conditions. The company already has three binding off-take contracts with Sinochem Fertilizer, Nitron and MacroSouce for the supply of 150 KT, 115 KT and 50 KT, respectively. Wyndham Port is expected to be the point of export for the project and is located a scenic 940 KM north of the project.
In little change to last week, ammonia markets on both sides of the Suez remain relatively well stocked, and in the face of largely absent demand, prices for the most part remain under varying degrees of downward pressure. The bearish sentiment is growing in many regions ahead of the first confirmed spot FOB and CFR spot deals and prices for February shipment. Plants at major export hubs are running very well and the market is struggling to absorb all the excess tons.
Stein Chingen Haugan
Managing Director
fertiMetrics pte ltd
Mobile / Whats App: +65 8328 7681 – Singapore
Email: stein@fertimetrics.com
Skype: steinhaugan1955
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www.fertimetrics.com
LONDON (ICIS)—In Egypt, Helwan and MOPCO sold 5,000 tonnes of granular urea each at $435/tonne FOB for February loading.
LONDON (ICIS)—In Egypt, Abu Qir sold 5,000 tonnes of granular urea at $435/tonne FOB for February loading.
Hear LoIs being processed. ABGT apparently confirmed 102.5kt?
On DAP/TSP, hear 2M tons agreed for Q1 with OCP, could that be right?
RCF urea tender acceptances so far – to be fully confirmed:
Ameropa – 52.4kt, WCI
OQ Trading – 45kt ECI
Sun Int'l – 50kt ECI
Liven – 47.5kt ECI
Midgulf – 45kt and 31kt ECI
Quest – 50kt ECI
Fertistream – 45kt ECI
Aditya Birla (ABGL) – 50kt ECI
Indagro – 45kt WCI and 45kt ECI automatically awarded
Total: 505,900t
LONDON (ICIS)–The European Commission has proposed tariffs on agricultural products and nitrogen fertilizers from Russia and Belarus to reduce dependence on these imports and support domestic fertilizer production.
For fertilizers, on top of the existing duty of 6.5%, the tariff would be subject to an additional specific duty that would gradually increase, starting at €40/tonne or €45/tonne, depending on the type of fertilizer (corresponding to around 13% in ad valorem equivalent).
The duty would increase to a prohibitive level of €315/tonne or €430/tonne respectively, three years after the start of the proposed regulation’s application (a level of about 100% in ad valorem equivalent).
In the three-year transitional period, the prohibitive tariffs would also be introduced if imports from Russia and Belarus are above certain specified volumes.
The increase in tariffs will not affect the transit of goods to countries outside the EU.
The Commission's proposal will now be considered by the European Parliament.
Rumour: China urea to announce quote system for 2 mil Mts end April, with long ciq period to stop market crashing, limit number of exporters allowed to try control
Profercy Nitrogen Report
Urea
India: Further to earlier, known confirmations in the latest RCF tender total just under 285,000t.
Basis multiple market reports, the following companies have confirmed cargoes at $422pt cfr west coast or $427pt cfr east coast.
Indagro – 45,000t west coast and 45,000t east coast (auto-confirmed as L1)
Ameropa – 52,400t, west coast
OQ Trading – 45,000t east coast
Sun International – 50,000t east coast
Liven – 47,500t east coast
Total: 284,900t
As before, the very limited volume confirmed falls well short of the stated 1.5m. tonnes targeted by RCF in the tender. The counter deadline has been extended until 11.00 IST tomorrow (29 January).
Thus far, two cargoes from the Middle East are anticipated via Ameropa (Oman) and Sun International (Qatar, prills). No further shipments from Oman are currently anticipated with availability now understood to be reduced by a February turnaround at one Omifco granular urea line.
As before, some offtakers in the region have noted that the tight shipment window presented challenges and prevented business. Producers have also noted heavy contract commitments for the month.
Liven is expected to have confirmed basis a position in Indonesia while it is unclear which origin OQ Trading intends to supply.
One Nigerian cargo is still anticipated.
Earlier reports had suggested two cargoes of prilled urea from the Baltic were likely to be confirmed, although these have not yet been linked to any confirmations. The total volume confirmed would imply one cargo could have been held back.
Jan 27 (Reuters) – Oil prices fell about 2% to a two-week low on Monday as news of surging interest in Chinese startup DeepSeek's low-cost artificial intelligence (AI) model prompted concerns over energy demand to power data centers.
Before the news of DeepSeek broke, oil was already trading lower on weak economic data from China and worries that U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs could further pressure economic growth and energy demand.
Brent futures LCOc1fell $1.42, or 1.8%, to settle at $77.08 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1ended $1.49, or 2.0%, lower at $73.17.
Brent closed at its lowest since Jan. 9 and WTI at its lowest since Jan. 2.
Chinese startup DeepSeek's AI Assistant overtook U.S. rival ChatGPT to become the top-rated free application available on Apple's App Store in the U.S. That fed doubts among investors who have poured money into U.S. energy firms hoping AI would drive demand for energy to power data centers.
"The DeepSeek model is (reported to be) more energy and capital efficient, which calls into question the significant electric demand projections for the U.S.," analysts at Jefferies, an investment bank, said in a report, noting AI represents about 75% of overall U.S. demand forecasts through 2030-2035 in most projections.
"It is still early to draw conclusions on the outlook in the immediate aftermath of DeepSeek, but the 20%(-plus) YTD (year-to-date) rally in power companies looks exposed," Jefferies said.
In other news from China, the world's second biggest economy behind the U.S., manufacturing data was weaker than expected, adding fresh concerns over energy demand.
"The weak readings highlight the need for more policy efforts to stabilize economic growth," analysts at Citibank said in a report.
TRUMP ON TARIFFS AND OPEC
Analysts said oil prices have been depressed in recent days following President Trump's call last week for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to reduce oil prices.
"President Trump continued to put the pressure on OPEC … calling on the producer group to lower prices to help end the Russian war in Ukraine," Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho, said in a report.
OPEC and its allies including Russia in the OPEC+ group have yet to react to Trump's call, with OPEC+ delegates pointing to an existing plan to start raising oil output from April.
Trump's tariff threats have also mostly pressured oil prices, feeding worries that a trade war could hurt global economic growth and oil demand.
Over the weekend, the U.S. threatened and then swiftly reversed plans to impose sanctions and tariffs on Colombia after the South American nation agreed to accept deported migrants from the U.S.
Colombia last year sent about 41% of its seaborne crude exports to the U.S., data from analytics firm Kpler shows. The agreement will allow that oil to continue to flow, another factor pressuring crude prices on Monday.
Baymineral- sulphur
Usd15/mt to compact amsul