National Development and Reform Commission on doing a good job of spring plowing in 2025 and the year-round fertilizer to ensure the supply of stable prices of the notice
NDRC Economic and Trade [2025] No. 144
Provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Development and Reform Commission of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, the State Railway Corporation of China Limited, the Agricultural Development Bank of China, China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petroleum Chemical Corporation Limited, China National Offshore Oil Corporation Ltd, China National Power Grid Corporation, China Southern Power Grid Corporation, National Energy Investment Group Corporation, China Sinochem Holding Corporation, China Minmetals Corporation, China National Development and Investment Group Corporation, China Coal Energy Group Corporation, China National Agricultural Development Group Corporation, China Supply and Marketing Group Corporation, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, National Coal Trading Center, China Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry Association, China Phosphorus Compound Fertilizer Industry Association, Potash Salt and Potash Fertilizer Industry Branch of China Inorganic Salt Industry Association, China Agricultural Materials of Production Circulation Association, China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mineral and Chemical Industry:
2025 spring ploughing is around the corner, in order to ensure that the spring ploughing and the whole year's agricultural use of fertilizer in sufficient quantities and at stable prices, after consulting with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Ecology, Ministry of Transportation, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the Ministry of Commerce, State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, the General Administration of Customs, the General Administration of Market Supervision, China Securities Regulatory Commission, the National Federation of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives, is hereby notified on the relevant matters as follows.
First, strengthen the production of fertilizers to ensure a stable supply of energy resources
provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government, Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Development and Reform Commission (hereinafter referred to as the “provincial development and reform commission”) and the competent departments of industry and information technology should work together to ensure the production of fertilizers, supervise the relevant enterprises to implement the minimum production plan; to encourage the environmental performance of advanced enterprises to make full use of the production capacity, should produce as much as possible.
Enterprises make full use of production capacity and produce as much as they can; improve the supply capacity of water for resource-based potash fertilizer production; strengthen the connection between supply and demand of coal for fertilizer production and the guarantee of railroad capacity, and guide fertilizer producers, coal supply enterprises, and railroads to sign a medium- and long-term contract on the production, transportation and demand of coal for fertilizer production with reference to the way of trading of coal for electric power and the National Coal Trading Center will facilitate the registration of the relevant contract; guarantee the stable production of phosphorus mine
The National Coal Trading Center will provide convenient services for the registration of relevant contracts; guarantee the stable production of phosphorus ore and smooth circulation of phosphorus ore across provinces. PetroChina and Sinopec should increase the supply of natural gas for fertilizer production, and give priority to the supply of sulfur to domestic phosphate fertilizer production enterprises.
Second, strengthen the coordination of transportation and production and marketing docking, and promote the efficient circulation of fertilizer
provincial development and reform commission and the relevant parties to ensure that fertilizer and production of raw materials, waterways, road transport smooth; play the role of supply and marketing cooperatives system enterprises the main channel for the circulation of agricultural materials, and promote the acceleration of fertilizer “swing” to the grass-roots distribution network, to ensure that the grass-roots supply of fertilizer is not stalled, The railroads should strictly enforce the regulations on fertilizers for agricultural use. Railroads should strictly implement the preferential policies on railroad tariffs for agricultural fertilizers, strengthen the coordination of capacity between production and marketing areas, and especially safeguard the needs of phosphorus fertilizers in the southwest region and potash fertilizers transported out of Qinghai and Xinjiang. China Sinochem, China Coal, China Supply and Marketing Group and other key fertilizer production and distribution enterprises should play a demonstration role, take the lead in establishing a risk-sharing, benefit-sharing fertilizer purchase and sale model to improve the efficiency and stability of production and marketing docking.
Third, strengthen the management of fertilizer reserves, give full play to the function of reserves
provincial development and reform commission should work with the relevant parties to guide the storage enterprises to efficiently and standardize the implementation of the reserve task, coordinating to solve the organization of the source of goods, transportation, transportation, capital loans, and other aspects of the difficulties, and supervise the reserves of goods on time; to strengthen the different levels of commercial fertilizer reserves convergence and coordination, in the reserve scale, variety structure, the rhythm of the construction of the storage and release of the realization of the function of complementary. Complementary. Agricultural Development Bank to play the role of policy banks, increase the credit support for fertilizer reserve business. Zheng Shangshi to implement the reserve task for the storage enterprises to provide hedging and other professional services.
Fourth, strengthen the management of fertilizer import and export services, to maintain the order of import and export
of the provincial Development and Reform Commission, in conjunction with the relevant parties to supervise and guide the jurisdiction of the fertilizer production and distribution enterprises to actively assume social responsibility, to comply with the provisions of the management of the fertilizer trade, give priority to ensure the domestic supply; coordinated to ensure that the potash, as well as phosphorite, sulfur and other raw materials for fertilizer production, such as imported transport ships to give priority to the port and unloading; and to increase the port of delivery and change of loading and unloading efficiency. The main import enterprises of potash shall expand and optimize the import channels of potash.
Fifth, strengthen the supervision of the fertilizer market, maintain a good market environment
of the provincial Development and Reform Commission and the relevant parties to strengthen the fertilizer market price monitoring and scheduling, and rigorously investigate and deal with all kinds of price violations; increase the counterfeiting of fertilizers to improve the participation of grass-roots organizations, such as village committees. Zheng Shangshang should strengthen the penetrating supervision of urea futures, improve the urea futures delivery system, optimize the delivery layout, facilitate the participation of enterprises in the delivery, improve the quality of market operation, and better serve the real economy. Relevant business associations should strengthen the release of fertilizer supply, demand and price information, and clarify market rumors in a timely manner; strengthen the social responsibility and credit in the field of fertilizer.
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[Urea] On February 7, the daily output of the urea industry was 189,600 tons, down 0.95 million tons from the previous working day and up 0.38 million tons from the same period last year; today's start-up rate was 84.67%, down 1.14% from 85.81% last year.
Global Urea Market Update: 🌍
Here’s a concise yet comprehensive update on urea market trends across key regions:
🔹Middle East
Granular urea prices increased to $420-423/t FOB. In the prilled market, Sabic sold 25,000t at $420/t FOB for March loading, while QatarEnergy closed a 30,000t tender, with bids reaching $430/t FOB. Availability remains tight, with February cargoes nearly sold out.
🔹Iran
KPIC closed a 20,000t granular urea tender at $377/t FOB. Production is stabilizing, with Pardis operating two lines at full capacity. Gas supply issues are expected to resolve in 2-3 weeks, potentially resuming exports by month-end.
🔹Egypt
Gas shortages have reduced production to 70-80%, but shipments remain unaffected. Granular urea prices hit $455/t FOB, with sales between $440-450/t FOB.
🔹Baltic & Black Sea
Prices firmed after India's latest tender. Granular urea reached $395-410/t FOB in the Baltic, while Black Sea prices rose to $405-415/t FOB. Trade slowed due to weaker demand from Ukraine and Turkey.
🔹Turkey
Egyptian granular urea offers increased to $440-450/t CFR, with some reaching $460s/t CFR. 200,000t of urea is still needed for March, but buying remains slow. Iranian supply is limited, with March shipment offers at $420/t CIF duty unpaid.
🔹Nigeria
Dangote sold two 30,000t lots of granular urea at $410/t FOB, up $20/t from last week. February shipments are nearly sold out. Indorama has no availability until March, with maintenance planned later that month.
🔹East & South Africa
East Africa: Prilled urea offers at $440/t CFR Mombasa saw no buying interest.
South Africa: Urea offers at $430/t CFR Durban with limited sales, as nitrogen demand shifts to phosphates ahead of the planting season.
🔹India
RCF issued letters of intent (LOIs) for 559,000t of urea from its 23 January tender at $422/t CFR west coast and $427/t CFR east coast, including additional Aditya Birla cargoes.
🔹Southeast Asia & Indonesia
Southeast Asia: Buying activity is picking up, but no new sales recorded. BFI is sold out, with the market awaiting Kaltim’s next tender.
Indonesia: Pupuk Indonesia closed a 6,000-15,000t prilled urea tender for February loading at $438/t FOB.
🔹Brazil
Granular urea prices increased from $420/t CFR to $440/t CFR, but buying remains slow due to a delayed soybean harvest, extending the purchase window for corn application season.
🔹 Market Overview
Firming prices & limited availability due to gas shortages, supply constraints, and seasonal demand.
Buyers in Brazil and Turkey remain cautious, while India and Ethiopia secure large tenders. Nigeria, Iran, and Egypt face production challenges, impacting global supply.
BREAKING: Yara International has halted ammonia production at its Hull plant, a source with the company confirmed to S&P Global Commodity Insights. The shut down, which began in late January, is expected to be permanent, the source said.
The move comes amid a broader shift in Yara's European ammonia strategy, as high energy costs dampen the competitiveness of domestically-produced ammonia. The major fertilizer producer expects to reduce its European ammonia production by 1 million mt over the coming years and rely more on imports into the continent, President and CEO Svein Tore Holsether said during the company’s fourth-quarter 2024 earnings presentation on Feb. 7.
300,000 mt of that 1 million mt drop is from the Hull curtailment. Another 400,000 mt is projected to come offline with a planned transition of the company's Tertre plant in Belgium. The final 300,000 will arise from optimization efforts at the company's industrial plants.
Morning
Iranian producers hold the price on last week official price at $377/Mt for this week.
Kermanshah tender’s isn’t clear yet but some speculation that they were not successful yet to sell the cargo.
Feb 6 (Reuters) – Oil prices settled lower on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump repeated a pledge to raise U.S. oil production, unnerving traders a day after the country reported a much bigger-than-anticipated jump in crude stockpiles.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 fell 32 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $74.29 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 fell 42 cents, or 0.6%, to $70.61.
On Thursday, Trump repeated a pledge to boost U.S. production, already the highest in the world, in a bid to lower oil prices and ease consumer inflation.
Oil prices gave up early gains after Trump's comments. Still, analysts have questioned whether U.S. oil producers will be willing to pump more barrels in the current market.
"There is no indication of accelerating U.S. drilling activity," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, noting he was surprised by the market reaction to Trump's comments.
Oil prices were also under pressure from swelling U.S. crude inventories. Benchmarks fell 2% on Wednesday after U.S. government data showed domestic crude stockpiles rose by 8.7 million barrels last week, well above analysts' expectations of a 2 million-barrel increase. EIA/S
Macquarie analysts said they expect another large build in U.S. crude stocks this week.
TRADE SET TO REMAIN VOLATILE
Trading was volatile. Prices started the session higher after Saudi Arabia's state oil company sharply raised prices for buyers in Asia. Prices also drew support from new U.S. sanctions against individuals and entities for facilitating shipments of Iranian oil to China.
"The notice is out – if you're a refiner or shipper moving Iranian oil, any part of it, you're at risk of getting whacked by the Treasury," Flynn said.
In the near-term, oil markets are expected to remain choppy, with global trade pressured by Trump's rapidly changing decisions on tariffs and sanctions.
On Monday, Trump suspended his threat of steep tariffs on Mexico and Canada, but new duties on Chinese imports came into effect from Tuesday.
Trump reimposed a 'maximum pressure' campaign against Iran, yet also said he was open to a deal with Tehran.
"The only certainty is that comments from President Trump will continue to drive volatility in the oil market," UBS's Staunovo said.
Global benchmark Brent crude has tumbled over 8% since Trump took office on January 20, while WTI has dropped over 7%.
𝗣𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗽𝗵𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝘂𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: 𝗝𝗮𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱
In 2024, China achieved a record-high 2.07 million tons of phosphate rock imports, marking a 47% increase year-on-year. While Jordan and Syria (Lebanon) became prominent suppliers, Egypt’s share dropped due to compatibility issues with certain production technologies.
𝙎𝙮𝙧𝙞𝙖’𝙨 𝙐𝙣𝙘𝙚𝙧𝙩𝙖𝙞𝙣 𝙁𝙪𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙚
The situation in Syria remains hazy. The new government is negotiating with companies experienced in mining and trading phosphate rock. A decision and contract are still pending, leaving the market in anticipation.
𝙋𝙧𝙞𝙘𝙚 𝙈𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙨
– China Domestic Prices: 28% P2O5 phosphate rock remains steady at Yn1,000-1,050/t (~140$) delivered to Hubei, despite bearish market sentiment.
– Export Indications: Egyptian 26-27% P2O5 rock is holding at $85-90/t cfr China, while higher grades (28%+) are priced at $105-109/t fob.
– Egypt: Logistics costs have pushed prices slightly higher for 28% P2O5 rock.
– Jordan & Algeria: Stable quarterly prices, with Algeria expecting to export 2 million tons this year.
– Brazil: Rising demand for phosphate rock, driven by increasing SSP prices.
🚢 𝙁𝙧𝙚𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩 𝙏𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙙𝙨
Softened rates for shipments to Southeast Asia are contributing to competitive delivered prices, particularly for Egyptian and Jordanian rock.
The phosphate rock market continues to evolve with shifting trade flows and steady demand for direct application products. With global agricultural needs on the rise, maintaining a robust supply chain for this vital resource is more critical than ever.
LONDON (ICIS)—In the Arab Gulf, another 5,000 tonnes of granular urea done at 428 FOB AG equivalent in a part cargo to Oceania. Don’t have more details.
[Urea] On February 7, the daily output of the urea industry was 189,600 tons, down 0.95 million tons from the previous working day and up 0.38 million tons from the same period last year; today's start-up rate was 84.67%, down 1.14% from 85.81% last year.
Morning. In Egypt, higher phys sales ($455 FOB)/gas supply uncertainty saw March paper trade up into high-$440s. In Nola, further gains seen in Urea ahead of Spring demand, with paper activity across Mar/Apr/May.
AG
Feb $412//$427
Mar $410//$418
Apr $390//$395
cfr Brazil
Feb $420//$435
Mar $410//$418
Apr $392//$405
Jun $365//$385
Jul-Aug $370//$385
Egypt
Feb $455//$465
Mar $448//$455 – traded $441, $444, $447, $448
Apr $410//$430
Nola
Phys: Feb traded $404. Lh Feb $399-$402. Mar $402, $406, $410
Paper:
Feb $398//$410
Mar $407/$417 – traded $410
Apr $400//$405 – traded $400
May $368//$380 – traded $370
Jun $335//$350
UAN Nola
Feb $253//$265
Mar $260//$275
May $270//$285
Apr $275//$290
Q2 $270//$283
DAP Nola
Feb $585//$600
Mar $605//$615 – traded $606, $620
Apr $580//$600
Michel Sebag gone in to recruitment
-GLOBAL FERTILIZER MARKETS ARE JITTERY WITH ALL SORTS OF RESTRICTIONS AND TARIFFS BEING PROPOSED BOTH ON IMPORTS AND EXPORTS
-UREA PRICES ARE BULLISH WITH MIDDLE EAST AND EGYPT PRICES HIGHEST SINCE SEPTEMBER 2023
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES ARE HOLDING NEUTRAL WITH LIMITED SUPPLIES MET WITH MUTED DEMAND IN MAJOR MARKETS. OCP OF MOROCCO AND THE INDIA GOVERNMENT SET TO AGREE ON A G-G CONTRACT FOR 2.5 MILLION MT OF DAP AND TSP
-POTASH PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH HIGHER DEMAND EXPECTED BUT ALSO IMPORT TARIFFS TO THE US FROM CANADA PLAY A ROLE
-AMMONIA PRICES APPEAR TO BE BEARISH BUT LACK OF PRICE TRANSPARENCY ON SPOT DEALS DIFFICULT TO ASSESS PRICE DIRECTION
The international fertilizer market is in a flux with the indecision on the Trump administrations invoking and then immediately temporarily receding import tariffs for all goods from Mexico and Canada with 25% for a 30 day grace period, and China with 10%. In addition, as noted in a previous report, a couple of weeks ago the European Union suggested that Russian fertilizers to the 27 EU member states be heavily charged with import duties on an annual escalating scale starting on July 1st 2025.
The US imports around 80-85 % of all its potash from Canada. In the event the proposed tariffs are indeed introduced in the next 30 days and the cost is passed on to the US consumers, potash prices in the US/NOLA would jump to being the highest in the world at USD 338-344 per short on reflecting around USD 366-373 CFR US Gulf equivalent. Current US/NOLA potash prices are assessed at USD 290-295 per short ton FOB. Trade flow changes would certainly follow with potential opening for increased Russian potash supplies.
On the phosphate side Mexico represents roughly 26% of the US's yearly MAP imports, up from just 7% in 202. With the US already regularly at price premiums to other markets due to current pre-existing duties against China, Russia and Morocco, adding Mexico to the list could help push up prices in the upcoming spring season.
Similarly, the European Union proposed tariffs on Russian and Belarus products would have a massive impact in that Russia over the past 10 years has supplied anywhere between 1-1.8 million MT of urea. In 2023 Russian origin urea constituted 15% of total urea imports to the EU. In addition, all major processed phosphate fertilizers like DAP/MAP/NPK/NPs will be included in the tariff scheme.
On top of this the world has seen China restrict DAP/MAP/UREA exports since December 2024. In all, the fertilizer industry, like any other industry affected by restricted trade, geopolitical tension and a stronger USD currency, will suffer with the likely shift in trade flows and higher prices already affecting farmers' affordability.
The fallout of the relatively small volume of urea secured by Indian government buying agent RCF of just 588 KT urea vs the desired 1.5 mill MT plus significant domestic consumption of Urea in India will most likely result in another tender some time soon for March onward shipments. The India April 2024-May 2025 urea consumption appears to be hitting a record 38.5 million MT vs sub 36 million MT Y/Y. Inventory entering February 2025 was assessed at around 4.5 million MT, numbers which all support that another India tender most likely will be forthcoming soon. Urea prices are going up across the board and the latest urea tender in Indonesia this week resulted in an award being made at USD 438 PMT FOB for prilled urea. This is up from the latest granular urea tender price of USD 411.11 PMT FOB. Middle East producers have sold prilled and granular urea at USD 420 PMT FOB for March shipment, the highest since September 2023. Iran is back producing and an export tender for 30 KT will test the market at a price expected equal to or higher than the listed USD 377 PMT FOB level. Egyptian prices have reached USD 455 PMT FOB, the highest since September 2023, with most if not all of the product destined for the European market where Egypt is exempt from import duty. Brazilian CFR levels are assessed at around USD 425-430 PMT CFR with the expectation of higher prices.
Again, China is the rumour mill in action with no news on urea exports. Some are guessing April or May yet still say June once the domestic season is over. Currently, domestic urea prices are hovering at 7 years low prices thus this could lead to the government slowly introducing exports for selective destinations. US/NOLA imported 354,424 MT in December, down 4% Y/Y. with July 2024-December 2024 total imports were 1,385,680, down 20% Y/Y. Prices in US/NOLA have increased USD 70 per short ton since the start of this year with demand strong anticipating a big spring application season.
On the processed phosphate side the US/NOLA DAP/MAP prices are on the rise from jitters around the proposed 25% Mexican tariffs which has now been delayed by 30%. The all important DAP import market in India has been dormant in 2025 with market players concerned about margins to be carried into the Kharif season.
In addition, rumours of a large-scale DAP/TSP deal between India and Morocco is said to be in the final stages. Volumes discussed are said to be between 2-2.5 million MT of DAP and 1 million MT of TSP. However, tension is reported to have arised from India not agreeing to the 1 million MT of TSP to be included yet OCP of Morocco apparently claim this volume is a required condition for the deal to be accepted. The very latest information is that India will buy a total of 2.5 million MT of which DAP 1.6 million MT and TSP 800 KT. India is in dire need of DAP. According to latest information India produced 3.16 million MT of DAP between April-December 2024 8% below Y/Y. Total sales for the same period reached 8.33 million MT down 14% for the April-November period.
Further, India has announced a reduced 2025/26 fertilizer budget of INR 1.56 trillion equal to USD 18 billion. The overall budget is down 4.9% on the original 2024/25 budget. India has been trying to cut fertilizer subsidy payments since it paid out over USD 30 billion in the 2022/2023 fertilizer year to keep farmer prices affordable while international prices surged.
Fertilizer subsidies account for roughly 40% of India's central subsidies for 2024/25, second only to the country's INR 2 trillion food subsidies.
MAP prices in Brazil are holding the fort at USD 635 PMT CFR with a latest deal reported with Russian origin for February shipment.
Argentina imported 1.05 mill MT DAP/MAP in the full year of 2024, same as in 2023. Of this MAP represented 767 KT.
Processed phosphate prices appear to hold current levels with limited supply met with lackluster demand.
The recent bullish sentiment in the potash market shone through this week, with all assessed spot benchmark prices rising across the globe. The US potash market opened in a state of uncertainty following President Trump's executive order imposing 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports. This initial shock led to a pause in activity, with most participants stepping back to reassess the evolving situation. Despite the market pause, one seller briefly posted pricing at $365/st FOB for Midwest warehouses before adjusting back to align with prevailing market levels. By the end of 3 February, the tariffs were placed on hold for 30 days, easing some immediate concerns. Still, activity remained mixed throughout the week. Some sellers stayed out of the market, while others resumed trading, with reported prices at $330–340/st FOB, reflecting a $10/st increase from the previous week’s assessment. Market participants remain cautious, awaiting further clarity on trade policy and its potential long-term implications. At NOLA, barge activity mirrored the broader market sentiment, with sporadic trades reported between $280-290/st FOB. The market largely remained on hold during the first half of the week, but by week’s end, barges were more readily available, with values settling in the $285-290/st FOB range. In Brazil, spot prices firmed to $315-320/t CFR, their highest levels since early December 2023. Demand for Q1 delivery remained limited, with most producers now offering from March onwards.
In other news, it appears that Indonesia's 350KT potash tender will be scrapped since international suppliers will not agree to a formula price proposed by Pupuk Indonesia and maintain a fixed price system. A new tender is therefore expected to be announced soon.
Potash prices look set for steady increase in prices across all key global spot benchmarks in the coming months. An upside risk exists due to the potential tariffs from President Trump.
Ammonia prices both east and west of Suez showed very little sign of reversing recent declines this week, though surging natural-gas values and stronger upgraded nitrogen pricing in Europe appears to be tempering any major declines there for the time being. In light of what will soon be two years since the project was first expected to commission, sources in the US Gulf this week suggested exports from the long-awaited 1.3 Mt/year Gulf Coast Ammonia (GCA) project in Texas may well be pushed back again following a reported unsuccessful start-up in January, with shipments now precariously slated to begin in Q2. Whether the delay imposes a degree of upwards pressure on pricing remains to be seen, though it may be factored into March’s Tampa settlement between Yara and Mosaic, the latter of which will receive spot tonnes from Qatar later this month.
Global price indexes should remain steady-to-soft, with the first transparent deals of the month likely to provide a better idea on price direction.
LONDON (ICIS)—In Egypt, Mopco sold 5000 tonnes of granular urea at $455 FOB and Helwan did a similar volume at 454 FOB, all for March loading.
LONDON (ICIS)–In Ethiopia, the Ethiopian Agricultural Businesses Corporation (EABC) has issued an import tender for 540,390 tonnes of DAP and 400,000 tonnes of granular urea. The tender closes on 20 February, with the shipment schedule not known.
Previously EABC has bought one or two cargoes in each of its urea tenders.