LONDON (ICIS)–In China, domestic urea prices went up quite a bit on unconfirmed talk exports may be allowed from March. Some say June rather. March looks unlikely, with any government decision likely to be based on the situation in the domestic market. And no one really knows what will happen on exports.
This morning, Yara announced new nitrate fertilizer prices for France, Benelux and Germany for limited volumes for April delivery.
———————
CAN CIF bulk/vrac Barge – Benelux and Germany – Euro per mt
January 7, 2025 335.00 February/Février
January 17, 2025 360.00 March/Mars
February 3, 2025 375.00 March/Mars
February 17, 2025 392.00 April/Avril
———————-
AN 33.5 Gr. cpt bulk/vrac franco – France – Euro per mt
January 7, 2025 425.00 February/Février
January 17, 2025 455.00 March/Mars
February 3, 2025 475.00 March/Mars
February 17, 2025 495.00 April/Avril
Baltic index snaps 3-day losing streak as supramax rates climb
The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index, which meas shipping rates for vessels transporting dry bulk commodities, snapped its three-session losing streak on Thursday, as rising supramax rates countered weakness in the larger vessel segments.
The index, which factors in rates for capesize, panamax and supramax shipping vessels, rose by four points to 780 points.
The capesize index was unchanged at 711 points, holding near its lowest in nearly two years.
Average daily earnings for capesize vessels, which typically transport 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, added $1 to $5.900.
Dalian iron ore futures snapped a two-day rise on Thursday, as concerns over U.S. s. ut tariffs and potential India taxes outweighed supply snags from Western Australia.
The panamax index fell nine points to 974 points.
Average daily earnings for panamax vessels, which usually carry 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain cargo, decreased by $83 to $8,765.
Among smaller vessels, the supramax index was up 17 points at 741 points, rising for the eighth straight session.
Source: Reuters
Iranian producers announced $378/mt as official price for this week which $1/ mt above last week.
Happy to share that Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, will launch a weekly price assessment for the Brazilian automotive grade urea market, effective March 6.
In view of increasing demand for Diesel Exhaust Fluid, or DEF, Platts will launch a weekly spot assessment on Thursdays of the CFR market for the underlying product, Automotive Grade Urea, or AGU, in Brazil
Feb 13 (Reuters) – ICE canola futures slipped again Thursday as farmer-selling and commercial hedging locked in multi-month highs ahead of possible tariff impacts.
• March canola RSH5 settled down $2.20 at $658.60 per metric ton. Minimal losses were similar across all active months.
• Farmers have been following advice to sell at current prices, which are better than at any time since November, and before a tariff impact could reverse recent bullish sentiment.
• Farmers don't want to risk being caught on the wrong side of a tariff reaction. "It's their income. It's their cash flow. So, if you're worried about tariffs, make some sales now," said a trader.
• Chicago Board of Trade soyoil futures BOv1 rose 1.29%, providing support to canola futures, which would otherwise have sold off more, traders said.
• Euronext rapeseed futures COMc1 rose 0.14%, but Malaysian palm oil futures FCPOc3 fell 1.45% Thursday. POI/
• The Canadian dollar CAD= hit its highest level versus the greenback in two months, making canola relatively more expensive to markets pricing in U.S. dollar terms.
-UREA PRICES ARE ON A TRAJECTORY TOWARDS USD 500 PMT FOB IN EGYPT WITH THE MIDDLE EAST TO FOLLOW UNDERPINNED BY EXPECTED STRONG DEMAND IN THE US AND WITH INDIA EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE A TENDER IMMINENTLY
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES ARE HOLDING DUE TO MUTED DEMAND AND LIMITED AVAILABILITY WITH CHINESE EXPORTS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE 2ND HALF OF THE YEAR
-BULLISH SENTIMENT PERSISTS IN THE POTASH MARKET WITH USA POTASH PRICES INCREASED BY USD 20 PER SHORT TON IN VIEW OF EXPECTED STRONG DEMAND BUT ALSO IN RESPONSE TO A POSSIBLE 25% TARIFF ON IMPORTS FROM CANADA
-AMMONIA MARKETS ARE IN OVERSUPPLY AND PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
The trajectory of urea prices is slowly edging towards USD 500 PMT FOB Egypt and will thereafter follow in other origins. The latest Egypt price is now reported by major Egypt urea producer MOPCO at USD 459 PMT FOB for March shipment. This is an increase of USD 60 PMT since the beginning of the year. Middle East urea is now reported to be closer to USD 450 PMT FOB with a part cargo reportedly sold at USD 445 PMT FOB which nets back to above US 460 PMT CFR US Gulf/NOLA. The latest Middle East pricing is USD 80 PMT since the beginning of the year.
Putting fuel to the fire on the urea prices is the expectation that India once again will attempt to source above 1 million MT with a tender rumored to be announced within the next couple of weeks, if not days. Currently all but one vessel has been nominated for the January 23rd urea tender which saw India secure a disappointing 558,900 MT vs the desired 1.5 million MT.
Production issues still prevent meaningful urea exports from production in Iran but there has been a substantial drawdown on inventories with exports in January exceeding 400,000 MT.
Chinese producers are still not expected to come into the export market anytime soon leaving SE Asian producers Petronas, BFI and Pupuk Indonesia carrying the urea exports. According to sources BFI is expected to tender for 2×6 KT granular urea and a major price increase is expected in line or above most recent Indonesia tenders with results of USD 440 PMT FOB or above. Major buying seasons in Australia and Thailand are approaching with about 80% of annual imports taking place between April-September. Last full calendar year Australia imported a record 3.8 million MT of urea. However, weather conditions to date may see this year's import below last year. Further underpinning the strength in the urea price is expected strong demand from US/NOLA. For comparison, April 2024 imports saw 1.4 million MT arriving.
The European producers are battling high gas prices with the one month forward trading close to Euro 60/KWH vs Euro 40/KWH on December 16th 2024. Producers are increasing prices on a weekly basis. This situation will probably reinforce itself when the restrictions of Russian imports are expected to take place from July 1st 2025.
The processed phosphate situation this week mirrors the one last week. India is still for the most part absent from imports and only one cargo of DAP was reported from Ma'aden this week at USD 633 PMT CFR. India's inventory of DAP is at a critical less than 1 million MT entering January 2025, down 45% Y/Y. Inventories in May are expected to remain at 1 million MT vs 2 million MT in April 2024, 3 million MT in 2023 and 4.4 million MT in 2019. The big issue in India at the time of writing is that the current subsidy price level of MRP/NBS leave importers with a loss of between USD 120-125 PMT. Losses are also incurred on domestic DAP producers via the import of phosphoric acid.
Pakistan imports are also muted due to weather, agricultural prices and retail prices too low to warrant a margin for importers. Nominal DAP price in Pakistan is around USD 645 PMT CFR.
On the opposite side of the world in Argentina, the government decided not to extend the 7.5% PAIS tax on imported fertilizers resulting in an immediate drop of around USD 50 PMT on MAP. Argentina MAP prices still carry a premium to Brazil of around USD 13-14 PMT. Last reported MAP price in Brazil is in the low USD 630s PMT CFR.
The bullish sentiment in the MOP market persists despite the slowdown in price movement, with only prices in China, Southeast Asia and the US showing a slight increase. Nutrien surprised the market this week by raising its potash prices by $20/st in the US and $30/mt CAD in Canada, prompting Mosaic to follow suit. Despite the price hike, which would bring the Midwest terminal pricing to $360/st FOB, prices are operating well below those levels. With most market players well covered for the spring application season, prices only increased $10/st this week to $330 – 350/st FOB in the Midwest. The Southeast Asian MOP market saw an increase in demand despite the lack of a fresh benchmark from the latest 350,000 t tender from Pupuk Indonesia. The importer was forced to scrap the tender as suppliers rejected the new price formula methodology. Market players look ahead to the end of February and the start of March, when Pupuk Indonesia is expected to retender. Meanwhile, the latest GTT trade data shows that Malaysia imported 1.6 Mt MOP in 2024, marking a 20% increase, while Indonesia imported 3.4 Mt, reflecting a 44% rise. Brazilian potash prices were assessed unchanged at $315-320/t CFR for the second consecutive week, with limited spot sales to note. March shipment availability has become limited, with most focusing on April onwards. Producers still aim for higher offers despite the slowdown in demand.
Sanctioned potash producer Belaruskali shipped more than 1 million MT for the first time by rail from its factories in January. The major export hub is Bronka, Poland, which received in excess of 550 KT with St. Petersburg receiving just above 150 KT. BPC started using the Baltic port of Ust- Luga, same as Eurochem and Uralkali, and the volume reached 176 KT.
Ammonia prices east of Suez continued to weaken this week amid substantial supply and limited demand across the region. In the West, sentiment remains oriented towards the downside owing to similar factors, though natural-gas market instability appears to be putting fresh business on the backburner, rendering price discovery increasingly difficult. Prices in the Middle East and Asia should continue to soften through February on comfortable availability, with benchmarks west of Suez also likely to decline, albeit at a much steadier trajectory.
Stein Chingen Haugan
Managing Director
fertiMetrics pte ltd
Mobile / Whats App: +65 8328 7681 – Singapore
Email: stein@fertimetrics.com
Skype: steinhaugan1955
WeChat: stein0813
Line: steinh
www.fertimetrics.com
Hi, Our client, a multi-billion-dollar asset-rich global commodity company with operations in Africa, Europe, and Asia, is seeking an experienced Sulfur/Sulphuric Acid/Fertilizer Trader to lead their desk. Let’s connect over a quick call to discuss
Morning. Phys values running higher than paper, where nearby buyers remain positive, but somewhat cautious too at already lofty prices. India's return supposedly 'soon', Dutch TTF tumbling, April Egypt correcting to $415 today.
AG weekly index = $437, Feb Ave = $428.50
Feb $423//$435
Mar $417//$425
Apr $400//$415
May $365//$395
Cfr Brazil weekly index = $437.50, Feb Ave = $431.25
Feb $425//$438
Mar $415//$425
Apr $400//$415
Jun $379//$390
Jul-Aug $380//$390
Egypt weekly index = $458, Feb Ave = $451.50
Feb $455//$460 – traded $458
Mar $440//$450
Apr $410//$430 – traded $415
Nola weekly index = $409.50, Feb Ave = $398.25
Feb $398//$410
Mar $418//$424
Apr $405//$420
May $370//$395
Jun $335//$355
UAN Nola weekly index = $280, Feb Ave = $275
Feb $272//$282
Mar $260//$283
May $274//$290
Apr $280//$300
Q2 $270//$283
DAP Nola weekly index = $610, Feb Ave = $602
Feb $595//$605
Mar $605//$615
Apr $580//$615
MAP Brazil weekly index = $632.50, Feb Ave = $632.50
Urea continues to increase as many regions are approaching season, sentiment at TFI ‘cautiously optimistic rather than blindly bullish’. Please do let me know if I missed anything as in the US.
-Indian tender expected soon, shipment to be later than usual to attract more volume
-Nola barge values firm as season is tight, prices down a few dollars yesterday but still good levels
-Latin and central America look active, Incofe bought Russian material
-Brazilian prices up, 420-440 CFR if we include bonded warehouse levels, fresh offers nothing below 440 CFR
-European demand seen from eastern Europe, south probably still needs to buy; prices up in Ireland
-Yara Ferrara still shut, restart delayed
-China domestic price is up this week as spring buying kicks off, so is futures
-Nigerian and Brunei tender awards still awaited
-Black Sea granular sales 402-405 FOB
-Egypt sold 457-459 FOB, highest since Aug 2023; running about 80% so all back up
-Algeria last done 445 FOB I think
-AG sales 428-445 FOB including small and large cargo business, highest since Jan 2023
-Iran no fresh sales, atleast another two weeks for gas supply to improve
-Ethiopia tender closing on 20 Feb
-Gas TTF down today amid peace talk hopes; Dutch ministry considers easing gas storage targets
PALM DESERT (ICIS)—In the AG, 5-7kt of granular urea sold for loading end of Feb March, to Oceania at 445 FOB. No further details.
PALM DESERT (ICIS)—In Egypt, MOPCO sold 6,000 tonnes at $459/tonne FOB for March loading. This is the highest level in Egypt since August 2023, according to ICIS data.
Morning. On Int'l paper, Mar Egypt traded upper-$440s y'day ($455 last done Monday), albeit amidst new phys sales $10 higher, Q3 Brazil months found value again mid-$380s cfr (Aug). In Nola, Feb barges ticked down slightly under $415.
AG
Feb $420//$435
Mar $415//$427
Apr $405//$415
May $365//$395
Cfr Brazil
Feb $420//$434
Mar $416//$425
Apr $405//$415
Jun $379//$390
Jul $380//$390
Aug traded $385 – Offered on
Egypt
Feb $454//$465
Mar $442//$448 – traded $446-$448
Apr $420//$440
Nola
Phys: Feb traded $415, $411, $413
Paper:
Feb $398//$410
Mar $418//$424
Apr $405//$420
May $370//$395
Jun $335//$355
UAN Nola
Feb $265//$275
Mar $260//$283
May $274//$290
Apr $280//$300
Q2 $270//$283
DAP Nola
Feb $590//$600
Mar $605//$615
Apr $580//$615
Feb 12 (Reuters) – Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures eased on Wednesday, a day after a U.S. Department of Agriculture report showed a higher-than-expected forecast of U.S. soybean stocks, coupled with continued concerns over weak Chinese demand for U.S. soy, analysts said.
CBOT March soybeans SH25 settled down 15-3/4 cents to $10.27-3/4 per bushel.
CBOT March soymeal SMH25 ended down $2.5 to $294.10 per short ton, and March soyoil BOH25 fell 0.47 cent to 45.66 cents per pound.
In its monthly report on Tuesday, the USDA projected U.S. soybean end-of-season supplies above market expectations while cutting Argentina's soybean production outlook after hot and dry weather wilted crops.
However, global soybean supplies are still expected to be significant due to a bumper crop in top producer Brazil.
Heavy rains have drenched the most parched parts of Argentina's key agricultural region in recent hours, the Rosario Grains Exchange said on Wednesday, bringing relief to the soy crop.
The USDA reported that exporters sold 120,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations in a private sale for 2024/2025 delivery.
DAP/TSP likely outlet for OCP’s 2025 fertiliser sales growth
Morocco’s fertilizer exports in 2024 reached a record 12.37Mt, up 13% yr-on-yr from 10.95Mt and roughly 1Mt above the previous record of 11.3Mt in 2020, according to latest Office Des Changes data. Notable volume increases were seen on MAP/NP/NPS but particularly on TSP, which rose as much as 750,000t and increased its share of OCP fertiliser sales to 20% from just 8% in 2020.
With OCP already increasing comparative exports in Jan/Feb and capacity rising to roughly 16.5Mt through 2025, OCP is forecast to produce 14.0-14.2Mt phosphate fertilisers in 2025 (85-88% of capacity) and export 13.4-13.5Mt (up roughly 1.1Mt). The expected 2025 total exports reflect as much as a 4.0Mt rise in availability from OCP over three years.
Combined DAP/TSP exports are forecast to rise as much as 1.9Mt due to the absence of 800-900,000t NPS sales to Ethiopia (as the buyer switches to DAP imports) and a likely decline in Brazil’s MAP imports as the country increases its switching to SSP/TSP and other NP grades.
Despite the steep rise in likely DAP/TSP availability, demand for these products is expected to see significant jumps this year with India needing to replenish crisis-level stocks, Ethiopia targeting 1.27Mt DAP imports in latest tenders, and increased discounts for TSP drawing out demand in a number of markets.
Reports suggest OCP is finalising a deal for as much as 2.5Mt DAP/TSP to India, up from total volumes to the market at 1.6-1.7Mt in 2024. European DAP/TSP/NPK sales could also be another option for OCP to increase sales in 2025 if the EU’s proposed tariffs on Russian fertilisers takes hold.
As a result, the product mix from OCP is expected to see notable changes in 2025. While DAP/MAP volumes are overall set to increase, these are likely to still remain below the DAP/MAP exports seen in 2020 and should remain around 64-65% of the overall total, as with 2024. TSP is forecast to take as much as 25% of OCP’s overall product mix, rising to as much as 3.4Mt from 925,000t TSP exports in 2020.
NPK/NPS volume growth has been somewhat stagnant over recent years from OCP, with the expected 2024 total of 1.95Mt slightly above the 1.86Mt exported in 2020. In 2025, these volumes are expected to slump in the absence of Ethiopia NPS sales, though this may be offset somewhat by increased NPK sales.
The current timeline for next stage developments is set to bring OCP fertiliser capacity to at least 20Mt/yr – the company’s target – by 2027. Further developments are set to bring production up to roughly 29Mt/yr by 2030, according to plans set out in 2024