PALM DESERT (ICIS)—In Egypt, MOPCO earlier today sold two granular urea cargoes to two different traders, 6,000 tonnes at 457 FOB and 5,000 tonnes at 458 FOB for March shipment.
As of February 12, 2025, the total inventory of China's urea enterprises was 1.6694 million tons, a decrease of 76,500 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 4.38%. In the past few days before the Lantern Festival, domestic urea demand steadily increased, urea enterprises' shipments improved, and the inventory of enterprises in the main production and sales areas slowly decreased. Provinces with reduced enterprise inventory in this cycle: Anhui, Gansu, Henan, Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Shandong, Shanxi, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Chongqing. Provinces with increased enterprise inventory: Heilongjiang, Hubei, Liaoning, Shaanxi.
https://www.hiveenergy.co.uk/2021/12/15/worlds-largest-green-ammonia-plant-for-nelson-mandela-bay-south-africa/#:~:text=Gqeberha%2C%20South%20Africa%2C%2014%20December,alongside%20the%20Port%20of%20Ngqura.
Wednesday, 12 February 2025 (Acerto)
Urea
Egypt: Mopco has sold 6,000t and 5,000t of granular urea at $457/t and at $458/t FOB Damietta, respectively, for March shipment. The business marks an increase of $2-3/t on the previous granular sales a week ago.
Just heard Ameropa amsul vessel arriving in Gdańsk – tonnes are being offered in to uk from it at 280 eur, means there are Mts unsold
India on Friday….
Morning. While widely anticipated, heightened talk of India's return doing the rounds yday, but no concrete news. Int'l paper saw activity on Apr AG, while Feb/Mar Nola values ticked up.
AG
Feb $420//$435
Mar $420//$430
Apr $410//$415 – traded $410, $412
May $365//$395
Cfr Brazil
Feb $420//$434
Mar $418//$425
Apr $402//$417
Jun $379//$390
Jul-Aug $380//$395
Egypt
Feb $456//$465
Mar $448//$458
Apr $425//$445
Nola
Phys: Feb traded $415, $417. Mar $422, $423
Paper:
Feb $398//$410
Mar $420//$426 – traded $423
Apr $407//$425
May $370//$395
Jun $335//$355
UAN Nola
Feb $265//$275
Mar $260//$283
May $274//$290
Apr $280//$300
Q2 $270//$283
DAP Nola
Feb $590//$600
Mar $605//$615
Apr $580//$615
Urea
Brazil: Mainstream offers of part-cargoes of non-sanctioned granular urea for prompt/February loadings are quoted in the mid-high $430s/t CFR for deliveries at fast ports on the back of bullish sentiment in the international market.
Yet, bidding for importers covering last-minute purchases for the safrinha second corn crop season is no better than $420-425/t CFR.
Sanctioned tonnage is reportedly being priced on formula.
Late last week, a prompt loader of 22-25,000t of sanctioned Venezuelan granular was booked in the mid $420s/t CFR for deliveries at Sao Francisco and Rio Grande. Venezuelan product is usually priced at a $10-15/t discount to tonnes sourced from the Middle East and North Africa/Nigeria.
While the latest asking prices for non-sanctioned granular urea are still below replacement costs at $460-470/t CFR, there is little appetite on the part of buyers to pay above $420/t CFR, with some claiming business has been done at this level, as urea buying interest in the domestic market remains largely flat.
Safrinha topdressing is largely being met by readily available amsul for February/March deliveries in the inland market. The nutrient is preferred over urea given its lower price basis unit of nitrogen.
Morning. Firm tone continues – Egypt paper climbed alongside Euro gas prices y'day, AG phys sales reported high-$430s, as Mar AG paper traded in/around $420, while Mar Nola values up $10+/- from last done.
AG
Feb $420//$435
Mar $416//$425 – traded $419-$421
Apr $395//$410
Cfr Brazil
Feb $420//$434
Mar $417//$425
Apr $390//$405
Jun $379//$390
Jul-Aug $380//$395
Egypt
Feb $455//$465 – traded $460
Mar $448//$457 – traded $455
Apr $430//$445 – traded $436
Nola
Phys: Feb traded $410. Mar $415, $417, $420
Paper:
Feb $398//$410
Mar $415//$425 – traded $418
Apr $402//$415
May $368//$380
Jun $335//$355
Option: May $350 Put – traded $12
UAN Nola
Feb $265//$275
Mar $260//$283
May $274//$290
Apr $280//$290
Q2 $270//$283
DAP Nola
Feb $590//$600
Mar $605//$615
Apr $580//$615
The ICIS TTF March contract price rose by over 4% to $17.60/MMBTu on 10 February, driven by downward revision to temperature and storage concern.
Container freights expected to increase in march
In the Arab Gulf, a granular urea cargo has been concluded in the high 430s FOB for March shipment. No further details are known.
[Urea] On February 10, the daily output of the urea industry was 195,100 tons, down 15,000 tons from the previous working day and up 6,300 tons from the same period last year; today's start-up rate was 87.13%, down 0.03% from 87.16% last year.
February 9th 2025 News Alert – Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto allows imports to meet subsidized fertilizer needs. The fertilizer import regulations are stated in Presidential Regulation Number 6 of 2025 concerning Subsidized Fertilizer Management which was signed on January 30, 2025.
The policy is an amendment to Presidential Regulation Number 77 of 2005 concerning the Determination of Subsidized Fertilizer as Goods under Supervision. Prabowo granted the fertilizer import permit to achieve the food self-sufficiency target which is now a government priority. Based on Article 1 paragraph 11, State-Owned Enterprises (BUMN) are tasked with procuring and distributing subsidized fertilizers in accordance with the provisions in the agreement and/or laws and regulations. Procurement and distribution of subsidized fertilizers carried out by BUMN Pupuk are carried out based on the allocation of subsidized fertilizers determined by the technical minister, in the agriculture or fisheries sector.
Import needs will be considered based on the proposal of the technical minister. Then, the import permit will be issued after a coordination meeting led by the Coordinating Minister for Food. Fertilizer imports may only be carried out when state-owned companies are unable to meet domestic fertilizer supplies.
"Procurement of subsidized fertilizer from abroad is carried out in the event that BUMN Pupuk cannot meet the need for Subsidized Fertilizer," reads Article 11 paragraph 2. BUMN in the fertilizer sector is also responsible for distributing subsidized fertilizer to the delivery point. Recipients of subsidized fertilizer at the delivery point include Farmer Groups (Gapoktan), Fish Farming Groups (Pokdalan), retailers, cooperatives engaged in or in the field of fertilizer distribution.
After the subsidized fertilizer is distributed to the delivery point, BUMN Pupuk submits a bill, and is verified by the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries. Provisions regarding the procedures for billing and payment will be regulated in the Regulation of the Minister of Finance.
Morning. Higher phys sales last week, rumours of India's return, and US mkt 'under-bought,' all lending hand to a firm sentiment on Urea. Paper mkts framed Fri close:
AG
Feb $412//$427
Mar $410//$420 – traded $425-$415 Fri
Apr $395//$402
_[Apr traded $385-$395 last week]_
Cfr Brazil
Feb $417//$434
Mar $418//$425 – traded $417 Fri
_[Mar traded $407.50-$417 last week]_
Apr $390//$400
Jul $380//$387 – traded $385 Fri
Aug $380//$385
Egypt
Feb $455//$464
_[Feb traded $358/$460 last week]_
Mar $442//$455
_[Mar traded $435-$448 last week]_
Apr $410//$430
Nola
Phys: Feb traded $404
Paper:
Feb $398//$410
Mar $410/$415
_[Mar traded $390-$410 last week]_
Apr $402//$410 – traded $405 Fri
May $368//$380
_[May traded $355-$370 last week]_
Jun $335//$350
UAN Nola
Feb $265//$275
Mar $260//$283
May $274//$290
Apr $280//$290 – traded $283
Q2 $270//$283
DAP Nola
Feb $585//$600
Mar $605//$615
Apr $580//$615