Morning. Mar Egypt rebounded to high-$420s on Fri, having traded down to $420 day prior. Limited activity in Nola but outlook is positive, supported by continuing issues with water levels on the river. Mkts framed:
AG
Mar $400//$415
Apr $390//$397
May $355//$380
Cfr Brazil
Mar $405//$425
Apr $385//$410
May $370//$390
Jun $375//$388
Jul-Aug $365//$385
Egypt
Mar $429//$435 – traded $425, $429 Fri
Apr $385//$400
May $380//$395
Nola
Mar $385//$395
Apr $375//$385 – traded $380 Fri
May $350//$360
Jun $335//$345
UAN Nola
Mar $285//$295 – traded $292
Apr $280//$300
May $280//$300
Q2 $285//$300
DAP Nola
Mar $610//$620
Apr $580//$615
May $570//$600
we know it, and did not bring anything, zero stock of gran urea (just a bit of t15/dap/np2020, that goes for the tail of season/maize mainly)
Morning Magnus
Iranian producers announced $388/mt as official price for this week, except Pardis which offering $390/mt due to latest sales.
Pardis new director manger announced an instruction to decrease for a minimum between Iran and Middle East numbers in coming weeks.
China CFR is now 240
Good morning. Nearby outlook in the international remains challenging but levels slipped a touch on March Brazil and Egypt. In Nola, Feb/Mar values supported in the $385-$390 range.
AG
Mar $400//$415
Apr $390//$400
May $355//$380
Cfr Brazil
Mar $400//$415 – traded $407
Apr $385//$410
May $370//$390
Jun $375//$388
Jul-Aug $365//$385
Egypt
Mar $429//$435 – traded $425, $421, $420 (today traded $425, $429)
Apr $385//$400
May $385//$400
Nola urea
Physical trades: Feb $390, $389; Mar $385, $389; May $360
Mar $383//$395
Apr $370//$380
May $350//$360
Jun $335//$345
UAN Nola
Mar $285//$295 – traded $290
Apr $280//$300
May $280//$300
Q2 $285//$300
DAP Nola
Mar $610//$620
Apr $580//$615
May $570//$600
AG weekly index = $427.50, monthly Avg = $430.50
Cfr Brazil weekly index = $430, monthly Avg = 433.13
Egypt weekly index = $453.50, monthly Avg = $453.63
UAN Nola weekly index = $290.00, monthly Avg = 282.50
DAP Nola weekly index = $605.5, monthly Avg = 603.00
MAP Brazil weekly index = $638.00, monthly Avg = $633.88
Please find below weekly report for China market:
1. UREA:
Market Highlights:
1) Production: Resumption of production is more than maintenance, and daily output is running at a high level.
a) Production: The monthly output of urea in February was around 5.47 million tons, down 4.54% from the previous month;
2) Demand: Industrial demand continues to advance, and agriculture appropriately replenishes stocks.
3) Inventories: Producer inventories continue to decline.
b) As of late February, the total inventory of domestic urea producers was 1.2951 million tons;
4) Other factors: the market mentality is unstable.
Market forecast for the next week:
In March, the monthly output of domestic urea is expected to be around 6 million tons, an increase from February, and the average daily output remains high.
In March, some regional off-season reserves were released one after another, and the market supply also increased compared with February.
On the demand side, March was still in the peak season of urea demand, and the start of compound fertilizer, sheet material and other industries remained at a high level, but the preparation of agricultural fertilizer came to an end.
With the unexpected rise in urea prices in February, self-storage sources and off-season storage sources may be actively put on the market, and the market may have a phased pullback.
It is expected that the market will first rise in March and then fluctuate and fall, and the overall average price level will be higher than that in February.
2. Ammonium Sulphate:
Market Highlights:
1) Under the active receipt of granular manufacturers, the domestic ammonium sulfate price continued to rise, and the downstream actively replenished the warehouse after the Spring Festival, and the increase was larger, but with the price rising, the downstream willingness to chase higher weakened, but under the improvement of domestic demand for spring ploughing, the downstream manufacturers were still active in receiving goods, and the market tender price continued to rise, and the market price narrowed near the end of the month.
2) International urea prices weakened due to the resumption of production in Iran and the weakening of natural gas prices in Europe.
Market forecast for the next week:
It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate in March may continue to fluctuate at a high level compared with February.
At present, the pre-sale of domestic resources in the south is until April, and the supply is tight.
With the push up of prices, the transaction prices in the domestic market fell at the end of the month, and the enthusiasm of the industry declined.
The international urea market continued to fall under the postponement of India's tender again, and ammonium sulfate weakened simultaneously due to this impact, and it was difficult to change the decline before the announcement of the Indian tender.
It is expected that the ammonium sulfate market will fluctuate slightly at the beginning of next month, and it is very likely that the high volatility and will fall afrer rising.
3. DAP/MAP:
Market Highlights:
1) Sulfur price +171 yuan/ton compared with the previous month; The price of ammonia was -17 yuan/ton compared with the previous month; 28% of the phosphate rock was stable compared with the previous month, and the overall cost of phosphates increased compared with the previous month.
2) The domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 42.47% this month, +9.26% month-on-month and +12.55% year-on-year.
3) The market trend of MAP is rising; The DAP market is crosswise operation.
Market forecast for the next week:
MAP: In March, the trend of raw materials fluctuated, but the cost was still high, the demand for downstream compound fertilizer or gradually weakened, MAP producers held more part of the waiting-to-deliver cargos, the price can still be supported, but after the market trading atmosphere weakened, the center of gravity of trading or downward.
In February, the average exw price of 55 powder MAP in Hubei fluctuated around 3,300 yuan/ton.
DAP: In March, spring ploughing is approaching, but there is still a certain gap between the market arrivals and previous years, the supply of goods in the field is limited, although the downstream has prepared some supplies, but the demand gap still exists, it is expected that the demand will continue to be gradually released next month, driven by the cost and demand, the DAP market or maintain a steady rise. The average exw spot price of 64% in Hubei is expected to be around 3400-3500 yuan/ton.
4.NPK/ NPs:
Market Highlights:
1) This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic compound fertilizer producers continued to increase, at 57.75%;
2) This week, the finished product inventory of 32 producers was 732,900 tons, down 61,200 tons from the previous cycle;
3) The demand for spring fertilizer replenishment continues to be released;
4) Spot cago mainstream EXW price:
-45%S (14:16:15/315) 2850-2980 yuan/ton
-45%CL (315) 2370-2550 yuan/ton
-35%CL (30:0:5) 1500-1750 yuan/ton
-40%CL (28:6:6) 1900-2100 yuan/ton.
Market forecast for the next week:
After a sharp adjustment in the market in February, the compound fertilizer market is still facing adjustment in March, because the price of upstream raw materials in Phosphates continues to rise, and potash fertilizer also continues to rise due to the tight supply, urea fluctuates slightly, but there are also phased market driven, so the cost pressure of compound fertilizer continues to increase.
Compound fertilizer plants will respond to the rise in costs by appropriately adjusting prices, but considering the fierce price competition among domestic compound fertilizer companies and the lack of terminal acceptance, it is expected that the upward range of the high level will be limited.
-RADIO SILENCE FROM INDIA ON A UREA PURCHASE TENDER HAS RESULTED IN UREA PRICES TUMBLING ACROSS THE BOARD WITH PRODUCERS IN DENIAL
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES REMAIN NEUTRAL TO STRONG ON THE BACK OF LIMITED SUPPLIES AND THE BRAZIL MAP PRICE MOVED UP USD 5 PMT CFR THE HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2023
-POTASH PRICES IN BRAZIL AND SOUTH EAST ASIA REMAIN SLUGGISH WITH CHINESE DOMESTIC PRICES INCREASING
-THE OUTLOOK FOR AMMONIA PRICES IS BEARISH WITH THE MARCH TAMPA SETTLEMENT DOWN USD 40 PMT TO USD 460 PMT CFR DOWN FROM USD 570 PMT CFR IN DECEMBER 2024
The international urea market is being spooked by the radio silence of India not announcing an expected urea purchase tender. India can afford to wait since the months of March and April are low consumption months thus domestic production will be higher than demand. Combined with muted demand in the US, Europe and Brazil, global urea prices are decreasing across the board with significant downward price movement in US/NOLA. Physical barge prices dropped into the mid USD 370s FOB per short ton for April and into the middle of 380s FOB per short for April. March April Egypt paper traded several times at USD 405 PMT FOB. However, Egyptian producers keep indicating physicals at USD 460 PMT FOB evidently with little if any traction. Middle East pricing appears to be all over the place with lows reported by traders at USD 400 PMT FOB and highs indicated by producers up towards USD 440 PMT FOB. Baltic prilled and granular urea prices have dropped on average USD 10-15 PMT over the past week due to lower prices in Latin South America and increased freight rates.
Iranian urea producers reportedly sold 2×30 KT granular urea at USD 383.50 PMT FOB with one cargo said to be destined for Thailand. Operating rates in Iran have been low to non-existent due to gas curtailment for the fertilizer industry at the benefit of heating homes and for other industrial uses. In Indonesia a urea tender held by Pupuk Indonesia for 45 KT granular urea for March shipment has apparently been passed in with the highest bid around USD 410 PMT FOB vs owners floor price estimated at around USD 430 PMT FOB.
India is still yet to announce a urea tender but the market expects early March to be the time for an announcement with second half March onwards shipment. Chinese producers are still affected by the government's strict export rules and regulations although the market expects China to resume exporting some time in April onwards although this could stretch into the conclusion of the Chinese spring and summer demand in June. On the demand side Australian farmers are between a rock and a hard place and it could well be that their buying will be deferred for a few weeks into May. Similarly, Thailand buying will come into effect after the annual water festival which is around the middle of April. Major buying in Brazil is a few months away and the current indicated CFR price is around USD 420 – 425 PMT CFR. The outlook for the urea price is bearish and for every week India delays the announcement of a urea tender, pressure on urea prices will build but with producers in denial.
On the processed phosphate side Brazil has come alive with MAP prices firming USD 5 PMT after months of stability at between USD 630-635 PMT CFR. A cargo of Russian MAP is said to have been sold in the range of USD 635-641 PMT CFR. This is the highest assessed price since early March 2023. China is now expected to come into the market in April/May with export quantities of DAP/MAP and current price indication is at USD 650 MT FOB for DAP. However, although this price could be achieved in SE Asia for smaller volumes, all other major markets with demand for large cargoes expect prices to be around the USD 620-630 PMT range. EABC of Ethiopia has yet to counter participants in the 20th February purchasing tender for up to 540,390 MT of DAP for March-May loading. The expectation is that EABC will re-tender for several of the lots. Both India and Pakistan appear to hold back on buying DAP with Pakistan experiencing unfavorable weather and agricultural economics and with traders unable to make a margin at current international prices. The outlook for processed phosphate prices is still neutral to firm on the back of limited supplies.
Potash prices increased in China and northwest Europe this week, while Southeast Asian and Brazilian markets remain sluggish, and Russia contemplates export quotas. In China, domestic potash prices rose to an average of RMB3,200/t FCA ($441/t), the highest since May 2023. Strong spring application demand and limited fresh shipments have supported these price increases, raising government concerns. With prices climbing faster than expected, Chinese importers may need to settle 2025 potash contracts earlier than expected. Meanwhile, the three largest importers were instructed to release potash reserves on 24 February. The Southeast Asian market was in waiting mode this week as Pupuk Indonesia has yet to award its gMOP and sMOP tenders. Both tenders received offers last week, but no awards have been confirmed. Suppliers are waiting for prices to emerge before proceeding with sales, hoping these higher offers will support the market in the coming months. Standard prices held steady at around $310/t CFR, with gMOP at $335/t CFR. The Brazilian market remained slow this week, with prices steady at $320/t CFR and limited spot transactions. April offers rose to $325-340/t CFR, but sales are slow as producers and buyers await price increases, with some expecting $360/t CFR by June. Still, demand in the region is expected to remain quiet in the coming weeks. In other news, Russia is considering non-tariff restrictions on potash exports starting in Q2 2025, with plans for export quotas to ensure sufficient domestic supply for complex fertilizer production.
Support for ammonia prices in markets east of Suez continued to erode this week, with very little upside seen during February. The ongoing bubble of support seen in NW Europe remained just about intact, though news of further declines at Tampa for March and slumping natural-gas prices should begin to eat away at any remaining support in the West. Yara and MOSAIC have agreed on the Tampa contract for March loadings of ammonia at USD 460 PMT CFR, down USD 40 PMT from previous month's settlement at USD 500 PMT CFR. The Tampa price has now declined USD 110 PMT since December 2024 when the settlement was at USD 570 PMT CFR. Prices look set to come under further pressure moving into March, particularly east of Suez. Prices in the West – specifically NW Europe – have enjoyed a partial degree of support through February, though this appears unlikely to hold for much longer.
Stein Chingen Haugan
Managing Director
fertiMetrics pte ltd
Mobile / Whats App: +65 8328 7681 – Singapore
Email: stein@fertimetrics.com
Skype: steinhaugan1955
WeChat: stein0813
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www.fertimetrics.com
These days, when it comes to wheat markets, it’s really the black sea that matters. It’s where a huge chunk, over 30% of the global trade in wheat will come from. If the production in that region is good, then we will have poor prices and vice versa.
Let’s start with Russian exports. Russia tends to have its biggest export program from August to December. This is similar to Australia in that the biggest volumes get exported in the months immediately post-harvest. They then tend to dip in the January to June period.
We can see from the chart above that exports during January and February have been lower than average.
In December, Russia also amended the export quota on wheat from mid-February to June to 11mmt, increasing export tax. This has been done in order to prioritise the domestic market, and the cynic in me says to help support higher wheat pricing in overseas markets.
The result of this is that there will be less Russian wheat on the global market. Last year, according to Andrey Sizov, exports of wheat were 52.4mmt, and this year, the expectation is for 44.2mmt, a significant reduction.
The winter wheat crop in Russia is in strife, which we have discussed extensively over the past quarter. Russia will largely dictate our pricing, and if they cannot recover and projections continue as is, then they will have less to place on the market than they have in recent years.
As an analyst, I believe the market is probably at its most bullish since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We just need to see a downward production in the black sea.
A lot will happen in this black sea space over the coming months, especially with the potential for peace to be negotiated.
FYR – Uzbek MOP 270 EXW Türkiye
Feb 26 (Reuters) – A Brazilian judge has thrown out a request by global grain traders to halt enforcement of a law that imposes a 1.8% tax on the export of grains such as soybeans and corn from the state of Maranhao, according to the decision seen by Reuters.
Abiove, a lobby group representing grains exporters, which hoped to get an injunction against the charge, argued the state law was unconstitutional in a case filed last week.
Judge Osmar dos Santos in Maranhao's court of justice, however, disagreed.
He wrote the unconstitutionality "is not immediately evident" and that the claim would require further analysis, according to the decision handed down on Tuesday.
The Maranhao export tax affects shipments of grains such as soybeans, corn, sorghum, and millet.
Critics of the new measure say it deals a blow to farmers and grain handlers operating in Brazil, potentially making the country less competitive against rivals like the United States and Argentina in world markets.
But state authorities have defended the levy, which was slated to be enforced from February 23, saying the revenue tied to the new tax will go towards investments in logistics, benefiting the entire agribusiness sector.
Aprosoja Maranhao, a group representing the state's soy and corn growers, is also legally challenging provisions of the law. On Tuesday, the group filed a class-action suit against the new tax, according to court filings seen by Reuters.
The farmers argue the levy breaches the Constitution because exports should not be taxed, the filings showed.
Pardis apparently sold 2*30kt at $385.3
Sulphur price in China is now USD 220 CFR
I hope this email finds you well. This is Kun from ChinaFert. The raw material prices of China are all going up due to strong domestic demand. Kindly be aware of this if you have any procurement plans.
Weekly FOB prices
Ammonium Sulfate (Capro grade):FOB $151(Bulk)-Tianjin Port or River Port
Ammonium Sulfate (Mixed grade Granular):FOB $162(Bulk)-Tianjin Port
Ammonium Sulfate (Capro grade Granular):FOB $170(Bulk)-Tianjin Port
Potassium Sulfate (SOP) Powder: FOB $610(Break Bulk)-Tianjin Port
Potassium Sulfate (SOP) Granular: FOB $610 (Break Bulk)-Tianjin Port
Calcium Nitrate Granular: FOB $195(Container/Break Bulk)-Tianjin Port
NP 20-20 : FOB $345 (Break Bulk)-Tianjin Port or Nanjin Port
NP 43-4 (Urea Based, High Tower):FOB $375-Tianjin Port
Prilled Urea (9.5kg Bag):380FOB
Automotive Urea (9.5kg Bag): 390FOB
Financial Options: we can offer credit terms of 30-120 days for long-term stable clients. The interest rate will around 6% (annualized)
Upcoming Conference we will attend:
IFA-Monaco,2025 (May12th-14th,2025)
Market Analysis and Summary
UREA
As of February 26, 2025, the total inventory of urea enterprises in Longzhong Data was 1.2951 million tons, a decrease of 127,400 tons from last week, a month-on-month decrease of 8.96% and a year-on-year decrease of 72.96%. This week's daily output was stable at 196-198kt. Gas production basically resumed at the end of February, and the subsequent daily output was around 200,000 tons. The basis has strengthened recently, and futures and spot goods have entered the market. Yesterday, 7,608 warehouse receipts were cancelled, and about 152,000 tons of delivery spot goods were gradually put into the market. Downstream agricultural demand and compound fertilizer purchases continued, and industrial demand for resumption of production increased, but the supply and demand recovery slowed down this week, so the company's inventory continued to destock but the amplitude decreased, and the market range fluctuated. The mainstream spot price was between 1760-1820RMB.
Ammonium Sulfate
This week, the price of ammonium sulfate (AMSUL) has seen a stable. The mainstream delivery price for mixed compacted ammonium sulfate from factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Inner Mongolia to Tianjin Port now ranges from 160–165 USD FOB. Offers for standard AMSUL have stablized around 147-150 USD FOB. As of Feb 22th, port inventories have reached 875,000 metric tons.
Best Regards,
Kun Yang
Feb 25 (Reuters) – The Argentine government's announced changes to transit safety measures on the Parana River will significantly reduce toll rates for grain cargo ships, Guillermo Wade, head of the CAPyM chamber, told Reuters.
Argentina, a major global grains exporter, uses the Parana River transport corridor to send 80% of the country's agricultural exports to the world.
However, the impact of loosening the safety margin under the keel for ships will only become noticeable when a tender to deepen dredging of the waterway is awarded, Wade added.
"The modification of the under-keel repayment is very timely, that can be applied to the new dredging tender, since it will significantly reduce the toll rates," Wade said in a message sent to Reuters late on Monday.
The announcement of the loosening of safety regulations for Parana came a few days after a tender to dredge the Parana River fell apart amid allegations of sabotage of the process.
The Argentine government said a new tender would be held, but did not give precise dates for it.
In the resolution published Tuesday in the Argentine Official Gazette, the government said the change in the safety margin aims to "accompany the evolution of future deepening and beaconing work in the navigation channels, as well as, remodeling and/or expansions of the existing work."
China entered 2025 in a seemingly comfortable position with regards to its potash supply. Overseas producers were continuing to ship 2024 contract volumes to Chinese importers at the price of $273pt cfr and China’s MOP port inventories were reported at a healthy volume of roughly 3Mt at the start of the year, including 1.5Mt of strategic reserves. Domestic MOP prices were also holding stable.
However, in the space of just one month, China’s domestic MOP prices have surged more than the equivalent of $50pt to as high as around CNY3,000pt. Multiple factors have combined to force the unusually heavy price increase, including a reported drop of around 500,000t in China’s stocks, demand building for the spring application season, and fears over a significant drop in overseas supply from Belarus and Russia. China’s own domestic MOP production is unable to make up for the shortfall.
Belarusian producer Belaruskali is carrying out large-scale maintenance works to install new equipment at its Soligorsk-4 mine through H1 2025. The repairs began in January and are expected by some sources to take roughly six months to complete, resulting in a production hit of as much as 1Mt. However, ongoing sanctions against Belarus mean that the timescale for these repairs is subject to significant uncertainty. While this makes it difficult to estimate the production impact of the maintenance, white standard MOP product from Soligorsk-4 is almost entirely shipped to China. As such, Chinese importers are facing a significant decline in their overseas supply. Russia’s Uralkali is also set to undergo maintenance at three mines in Q2-Q3 2025 with the production impact for Q3 indicated by the company at a minimum of 300,000t and the impact for Q3 as yet unclear.
All the above factors will likely draw Chinese potash importers to the table to negotiate 2025 contracts with overseas suppliers sooner rather than later. Profercy subscribers can find more detailed potash market analysis and 2025 China contract expectations in our February Potash Report, which was published 25 February.