Atlas buying 6k mts each of gran urea & AS.. gran urea goes to Luzon while AS goes to Davao / South. Deadline for offers Is tommorow mar 14
Morning. Further softening on Int'l paper y'day, as April Egypt found value mid-$380s, April Brazil $375, while May AG traded $367. In Nola, Mar paper/phys Urea continued to hold value in/around $385.
AG
Mar $395//$410
Apr $375//$383
May $360//$375 – traded $367
Cfr Brazil
Mar $395//$410
Apr $373//$380 – traded $375s
May $360//$373
Jun $360//$375
Jul $365//$385
Egypt
Mar $410//$424
Apr $383//$387 – traded $385
May $368//$385
Nola
Phys: Mar traded $385. April $380
Paper:
Mar $382//$387 – traded $385
Apr $373//$382 – traded $377
May $343//$355
Jun $335//$350
Option: Apr Nola $395 Call traded $5
UAN Nola
Mar $291//$299
Apr $297//$310
May $290//$310
Q2 $285//$300
DAP Nola
Mar $610//$620
Apr $580//$615
May $570//$580
Morning. Thin activity on paper to start the week as drift continues, and further definition awaited. Apr AG traded low-$380s, while Loaded Nola barge traded $386. Mkts framed:
AG
Mar $395//$410
Apr $375//$385 – traded $383
May $360//$375
Cfr Brazil
Mar $395//$410
Apr $375//$380
May $360//$373
Jun $360//$380
Jul $365//$385
Egypt
Mar $412//$425
Apr $380//$395
May $370//$388
Nola
Phys: loaded traded $386
Paper:
Mar $384//$388
Apr $372//$385
May $340//$350
Jun $335//$345
UAN Nola
Mar $291//$297
Apr $295//$310
May $287//$310
Q2 $285//$300
DAP Nola
Phys: FH April traded $610
Mar $610//$620
Apr $580//$615
May $570//$580
Iraq urea project under 2mmbtu cash cost
https://www.chemanalyst.com/NewsAndDeals/NewsDetails/skw-piesteritz-resumes-full-ammonia-production-after-temporary-pause-35040
One example is the expected increase in imports of single superphosphate (SSP), a substitute for MAP in soybean farming. According to Argus, SSP is expected to become more cost-effective, potentially boosting imports by 18% to 23% in the coming months. Additionally, Argus noted that the exchange ratio for SSP is more favorable than for other fertilizers in the Brazilian market.
Producers are moving quickly to take advantage of the better exchange conditions. There are already price lock-ins for the 2025/26 soybean crop in an effort to capitalize on the dollar’s exchange rate, said Luiz Pedro Bier, vice president of Aprosoja Mato Grosso
635 way too high
Sulphur prices keep climbing, while sulphuric acid remains flat to softer. Yet, for sulphur burners, buying sulphur is still the more cost-effective choice in most regions.
Take Indonesia, for example.
When Acuity Commodities published 𝘉𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘨: 𝘚𝘶𝘭𝘱𝘩𝘶𝘳 on February 26, an Indonesian nickel producer was securing sulphur cargoes at $200-215/t CFR. While sulphur values have risen since, let me use this range to illustrate my point.
At the high end of $215/t CFR, the equivalent cost for sulphuric acid (given 1t of sulphur produces 3t of acid) is in the low $70s/t CFR. In contrast, the latest acid import price was in the $80s/t CFR Indonesia range, albeit with potential upside now that import licensing issues have been resolved.
This confirms that producing sulphuric acid from sulphur remains the cheaper option—even before factoring in the steam credit from sulphur burning.
Could this shift? If sulphur keeps rising while acid prices edge lower, then yes, we could see acid become the better buy. But for a lasting switch to acid, its price advantage would need to hold over time.
For now, we’re not there yet.
PS I have a lot of thoughts on the sharp rise in sulphur CNY values in China today (March 4), new US tariffs, and the DRC's cobalt export ban but will have to leave that for our 𝘉𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘨 reports—too much is going on
Aquifert Freight Analytics – Week 10 Review
Summary: As predicted last week, we saw this weeks RFQ increase to over 4.1 mil mts. Last week saq a good product mix of 14 different products and some new ports emerging especially in Finland and Canada. Last year we saw the end of the season high with just under 5 mil mts RFQ. With the potential india announcement looming lets see what the week holds
Export: Egypt is the largest country with just under 1.2 mil mts of export enquiries with Rock no.1 product. China in 2nd with a heavy emphasis still on amsul with just of 700kt of export enquiries.
Import: the top 3 are the usual culprits India, China and Brazil with India leading the way with just over 1 mil mts of import enquiries. I attached the list of import countries further down the list looking for imports at the moment
Morning. Int'l paper values drifting lower last week in lacklustre demand, and with India still shy. In Nola, Mar paper traded down to $380 to then find support low/mid-$380s on Fri.
AG
Mar $395//$410
Apr $382//$392
_[Apr traded $387 last week]_
May $360//$375
Cfr Brazil
Mar $395//$410
_[Mar traded $407-$400 last week]_
Apr $375//$385
May $355//$375
Jun $360//$380
Jul $365//$385
Egypt
Mar $412//$424
_[Mar traded $435-$427 last week]_
Apr $386//$400
_[Apr traded $393 last week]_
May $370//$388
Nola
Phys: Mar traded $385
Paper:
Mar $384//$388 – traded $383, $382
Apr $372//$382 – traded $377
May $340//$350 – traded $354
Jun $335//$342 – traded $345, $337
Option; May $340 Put traded $7
UAN Nola
Mar $290//$305
Apr $280//$300
May $280//$300
Q2 $285//$300
DAP Nola
Mar $610//$620
Apr $580//$615
May $570//$580
Dear Pardis Registered Customers,
Greetings and best regards.
We would like to inform you that Pardis Petrochemical Company intends to enter into a one-year contract for exports to Brazil and is planning to hold an auction in this regard.
General Conditions:
1.Subject of Auction:
Pardis Petrochemical Company invites you to participate in our upcoming Urea Auction for the supply of Minimum 500,000 MT to 1,000,000 MT per year, with a one-year contract based on the mutually agreed delivery schedule.
2.Auction Documents
Envelope A – Bid Bond (Auction Guarantee):
Auctioneers shall submit with their proposals a Bid Bond (Auction Guarantee) the form of Auction Bank Guarantee A deposit of 4,000,000 USD or 3,600,000,000,000 IRR to be valid for a period of three (3) months as from the Closing Date of the Auction.
Technical and commercial offers will be announced you after your readiness letter.
If you are interested in participating in the auction, please confirm your intention or withdrawal by Tuesday, March 11, 2025.
Failure to respond to this email will be considered as your withdrawal from the auction.
Thank you for your cooperation.
Best regards,
Pardis Petrochemical Company
You deleted this message.
HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US will exclude some Canadian imports from the 25% tariffs that it imposed earlier in the week, the government said on Thursday. The order lowers the tariff on Canadian imports of potash to 10% from 25%.
The exclusion was intended to prevent disruption to the nation's automobile industry, which is integrated with that in Canada. The order did not specify the products that will be excluded from the 25% tariffs and it did not say how long the exemption will last.
However, US President Donald Trump said the exemption will last for one month during a press briefing.
Media reports said the exemption covers Canadian imports that are compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the trade agreement between the three countries.
Automobiles are an important end market for the chemical industry. A typical vehicle contains nearly $3,950 of chemistry including chemical products and chemical processing.
Hear Pusri prills in the $390s fob
–UREA PRICES CONTINUE TO ERODE ACROSS THE BOARD IN THE ABSENCE OF AN INDIA TENDER AND SLUGGISH DEMAND IN MAJOR MARKETS
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES ARE HOLDING DUE TO LIMITED SUPPLY AND MUTED DEMAND
-GLOBAL POTASH PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DUE TO PRODUCTION CURTAILMENT AND STRONG DEMAND EXPECTED IN MAJOR MARKETS
-AMMONIA PRICES EAST AND WEST OF SUEZ ARE UNDER PRESSURE WITH HIGH PRODUCTION OPERATING RATES OUTPACING DEMAND
The international urea market price continues to decline across the board mainly on the back of lack of any announcement of a urea purchase tender by India. However, it is expected that a tender could be announced soon by the government agency IPL. Question then is for how much quantity and shipment period. According to data India's current inventory is around 5 million MT and that is considered low.
Underscoring the continued weakness in the market, spot trading has been slow with Qatar Energy's tender for 45 KT April shipment attracting bids at USD 415 PMT FOB, down USD 22 PMT from the February 2025 tender. Pupuk Indonesia caved in and sold 90 KT at a price of USD 399 PMT vs their expected price of USD 427 PMT FOB. Only a week ago they rejected USD 411 PMT FOB. US/NOLA April barge prices are at an equivalent USD 411-413 PMT CFR. Adding to this is the Trump administration introduction of 25% tariffs on all products coming in from Canada and Mexico. However, this tariff has now been suspended until April 2nd with a 10% tariff expected to be the new level. On a net border trade between Canada and the US Canada is up around 3% vs the US on exports. However, on UAN solutions the US imported 386 KT in 2024 from Canada vs exporting only 35 KT to Canada. Total US imports of UAN Solution from all countries in 2024 was 2.4 million MT vs exports at 1.8 million MT. The fallout of the 25% tariffs imposed on Canada has yet to be seen.
Egypt has remained quiet on the export front for the past few weeks with previous sales committed through the middle of March. Current indication is at around the USD 430-435 PMT FOB mark albeit with no buying interest.
The outlook for the urea price is bearish until India announces in the absence of support from major markets like Brazil, the US and Europe.
The impact on US farmers with the introduction of a 25% tariff on Mexico would be hard felt particularly on the products of DAP/MAP. Since Morocco, China and Russia are excluded from the US market from antidumping measures, Mexico's export to the US surged in 2024 to 518 KT vs 200 KT in 2023 and only 108 KT in 2022. MAP imports to the US from Mexico has come to around 25% of the total. Further, the US exports in excess of 1.5 million MT of MAP/NPS/NPK to Canada and that will have an impact with the Canadian government's tit for tat on tariffs. In other news the Brazilian market is off due to its annual Carnival. EABC of Ethiopia has rejected the revised DAP offers on March 4th from its 20th February tender for 540,390 MT since the targeted price of US 625 PMT FOB could not be met. To date it is estimated that EABC only has secured around 700 KT of DAP vs the target of 1.27 million MT. Another purchase tender is expected to be announced soon.
India has gone quiet over the past few weeks although Ma'aden appears to be active now rumored to be discussing 60 KT sale at a price in or around their past sale at USD 636 PMT CFR. India is in critical need of DAP for the Kharif season starting on April 1st with an inventory of only 1.1 million MT vs 2 million in 2024 and 3 million MT in 2023.
China may offer some relief with the expectations that exports will again be made possible at the end of April and beginning of May. The flipside is that Chinese producers will ask for much higher prices with sulphur prices reaching USD 240 PMT CFR China. About 30% of the production cost of DAP is related to sulphur pricing and therefore it is expected that DAP pricing in China will reflect the increased sulphur price.
OCP of Morocco exported 3.94 million MT of DAP in 2024 up from 3.84 million MT the year before. MAP exports reached 3.74 million MT up 9% from 3.45 million MT. Although the MAP exports to Brazil fell significantly, Australia picked up the slack importing 746,080 MT vs 323,279 MT the year before. OCP's capacity for processed phosphates in 2025 is expected to be 16.5 million MT with exports around 14.5 million MT.
Potash prices are increasing with production curtailment both in Belarus and Russia. Evidence of this was seen in the most recent Pupuk Indonesia tender which resulted in offers of granular MOP at USD 352.25 CFR submitted from a Chinese participant with support from Laos. Standard MOP price was offered by Uralkali at USD 335 PMT CFR. The tender has yet to be finalized.
The fallout of the 25% tariffs imposed on Canada could have a serious impact longer term with the USA importing annually around up to 10 million MT of MOP from Canada representing about 80% of total imports. Alternative sources are limited with Belarus sanctioned and Russian MOP also not available. There are only about 5-6 countries producing MOP of any significance. Canada, Russia, Belarus, Germany, Israel, Jordan – with Laos slowly ramping up capacity with Chinese money. The outlook for potash prices is bullish.
High operating rates of ammonia across the board have resulted in prices to continue downward movement. The March Tampa contract settlement between Mosaic and Yara dropped USD 40 PMT to USD 460 PMT CFR Tampa. However, there is optimism among producers that prices will come up in the US with the spring season promising to be strong. Europe is a conundrum with forward gas prices fluctuating like a rubber band with premium prices now coming in under pressure. Producers in the Middle East and SE Asia are asking contract buyers to take advance shipments to alleviate inventory buildup.
The outlook for ammonia prices is bearish with September onwards possible to see increased prices.
Stein Chingen Haugan
Managing Director
fertiMetrics pte ltd
Mobile / Whats App: +65 8328 7681 – Singapore
Email: stein@fertimetrics.com
Skype: steinhaugan1955
WeChat: stein0813
Line: steinh
www.fertimetrics.com