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Morning. Int'l paper saw May AG trade slightly higher y'day into upper $360s (albeit in small vol), while Mar Nola paper/phys values still in/around $380. Mkts framed:
AG
Mar $390//$405
Apr $365//$375
May $355//$368 – traded $367 (1.5k)
Cfr Brazil
Mar $392//$400
Apr $370//$380
May $360//$370
Jun $360//$375
Egypt
Mar $405//$420
Apr $370//$380
May $363//$380
Nola
Phys: Mar traded $380
Mar $378//$382 – traded $380
Apr $3365//$375
May $345//$355
Jun $330//$345
Option: Apr $385 CALL – traded $5
UAN Nola
Mar $291//$300
Apr $297//$310
May $290//$310
Q2 $285//$300
DAP Nola
Mar $610//$620
Apr $580//$615
May $570//$580
OCP sold 55kt DAP for
April loading at $655-660/t cfr, a significant rise of ≈$16-21/t on the week before.
should be very high 40's/50 sort of level as a ball park. If you need something firmer let me know
Re Atlas Mar7 for 12k AS @ sub usd 160 cfr Sangi while 6k PU @ high 430s
Good Morning
Iranian producers announced $370/Mt as official price for this week.
The latest Iran’s urea production:
– Khorasan: 100%
– MIS: 100%
– Razi: 100%
– Kermanshah : 100%
– Lordegan : 100%
– Shiraz : 100% both grades
– Pardis : 100%
so, for The marakesh confernce, i m launching a new event series on specialities, solubles and organic fertilizers 😉
H1 pupuk at 395.5
OCP AFRICA has taken a key step in bolstering Nigeria’s agricultural infrastructure with the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on March 10, 2025. The agreement, forged with key Nigerian institutions—including the Ministry of Finance Incorporated, NSIA (Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority), NADF (National Agricultural Development Fund), and FEPSAN—sets the stage for a more resilient and efficient fertilizer supply chain.
🔹 Key Focus: Implementing Bonded Warehouses for P-Fertilizers
The MoU prioritizes the establishment of bonded warehouses for key phosphorus-based fertilizers (TSP & others), ensuring streamlined distribution, reduced logistical bottlenecks, and improved farmer access. This initiative will play a critical role in stabilizing supply, mitigating price volatility, and supporting the Presidential Fertilizer Initiative’s long-term sustainability.
Additional strategic pillars of the agreement include:
✔ Advancing soil mapping initiatives
✔ Co-developing a local granulation plant for soil correction additives
✔ Expanding GIS platforms & digital solutions for precision agriculture
✔ Strengthening research & development for sustainable farming
This development follows high-level discussions between Nigerian stakeholders and OCP Africa earlier this year, reinforcing the country’s commitment to food security and sovereignty under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration. As PFI 3.0 takes shape, market participants should anticipate enhanced efficiencies and innovation across Nigeria’s agricultural value chain.
his MoU marks a significant step toward unlocking Nigeria’s full agricultural potential, driving long-term sustainability, and accelerating sector growth. Stay tuned for updates on implementation progress and market impacts <This message was edited>
Prill Urea tender ex Gresik dd 14th Mar
OE USD 432.5
H1 ?
Camelot 390s
Samsung low 390
Liven 392
Ameropa regret
Aditya regret
Morning. Intl urea paper sliding again y'day; weakness in Brazil saw March paper trade down to mid-$390scfr, April AG slipped to low-$370s. In Nola, Mar/FH April phys prices sideways in/around $380.
AG
Mar $395//$405
Apr $365//$378 – traded $373
May $355//$372
Cfr Brazil
Mar $395//$399 – traded $395
Apr $370//$382
May $355//$375
Jun $360//$375
Jul $365//$385
Egypt
Mar $407//$422
Apr $375//$385
May $365//$383
MAP Brazil
May traded 655
Nola
Phys: Mar traded $381. FH Apr $380
Paper:
Mar $380//$390
Apr $365//)373
May $345//$355 – traded $348
Jun $330//$345
UAN Nola
Mar $291//$300
Apr $297//$310
May $290//$310
Q2 $285//$300
DAP Nola
Mar $610//$620
Apr $580//$615
May $570//$580
UREA PRICES ARE DECLINING DAILY WITH INDIA SPOOKING THE MARKET WITH A PURCHASE TENDER STILL ABSENT
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON THE BACK OF CHINESE PRODUCERS ABSENCE FROM THE MARKET AND ANTICIPATED STRONG DEMAND IN KEY MARKETS
-POTAHS PRICES ARE HOLDING WITH SOME EXPECTATION OF INCREASED PRICES DUE TO CURTAILMENT OF PRODUCTION CAPACITY IN BOTH BELARUS AND RUSSIA
-AMMONIA PRODUCERS PRODUCING AT FULL THROTTLE BUT DEMAND IS SLUGGISH IN INDIA AND NORTH EAST ASIA LEADING TO A BEARISH OUTLOOK DESPITE FOR DEMAND IN EUROPE ON THE BACK OF HIGH GAS PRICES
India continues to spook the market by not announcing an expected urea tender with the result of international urea prices falling across the board on a daily basis. Either this is intentional on the Indian part or they simply are not in any need to rush since March and April are quiet months on the domestic demand side. However, according to official inventory reports, the level is close to 20% less than the five year average. In addition, demand for urea in Europe is sluggish at best and offers from Egyptian producers at prices of USD 440-445 are met with a cold shoulder and with indications around the USD 430 PMT CFR mark. Brazil is edging lower with demand primarily for the southern winter crops. Current indications are now at USD 380 PMT CFR. NOLA/US values are also coming down albeit in smaller lots now at around the low USD 380s per short FOB. March urea arrivals to NOLA//US is pegged at 700,000 MT with April volume still uncertain. Iranian producers with a combined production of around 9 million MT are now back in action and official export FOB number is USD 388 PMT, surely to be revised a lot lower vs North Africa and the Middle East. The resurgence of Iran in the export market is of course viewed in a bearish mood. The official export price of Iran urea is set at USD 388 PMT FOB but already this price appears too high. The Middle East producers are now struggling to hold at USD 400 PMT FOB with the latest pegged number around the USD 390 PMT FOB mark. Chinese producers are still on the sideline with daily production of urea down to 192,000 MT, down from 6,000 MT earlier in the week.
The outlook for the urea price is bearish with the market waiting for positive news from India.
The processed phosphate market west of Suez are seeing modest price increases for Moroccan product driven by strong import demand and with the Chinese producers on the sideline. China is expected to be back in the market some time in April/May. Prices are expected to firm in the short term but with May arriving demand for DAP in the US, Europe, Ethiopia and Australia will stop. On the other hand, India is still very short on DAP with latest rumors of prices hitting USD 650-660 PMT up from the long lasting price of USD 636 PMT CFR. China is expected to be back in the market some time in April. Brazil MAP prices are now firmly around the USD 640 plus CFR with new offers indicated as high as USD 650-660 PMT CFR on the back of limited supplies now that the cheaper products in stock have disappeared.
EABC in Ethiopia has floated a fresh tender for DAP of 466,358 MT seeking to receive improved prices vs the last tender which was scrapped. Demand from Pakistan is still absent with the latest bid-offer range indicated at USD 645-648 PMT CFR.
Last year China lifted export restrictions in the middle of March but this year is a different story with no certainty with wild guessing when exports will again be available.
The outlook for processed phosphate prices is firm for the next couple of months then the prices are expected to decline with China coming into the market and with fewer export options.
Global potash benchmarks were hinted higher this week, although unconfirmed, as limited spot availability, particularly in Southeast Asia, is expected to support prices. Standard MOP prices held steady at $300-320/t CFR this week in Southeast Asia, although market chatter suggested prices could rise to $320-330/t CFR. Fundamentals in the region have turned more bullish, driven by a tighter supply outlook for Q2, limited producer offerings, strong palm oil prices, strong Chinese domestic prices, and firm domestic prices across the region. While these higher prices were not confirmed this week, they are expected to rise in the near term. Meanwhile, Pupuk Indonesia has yet to award its MOP tender due to a price mismatch between supplier offers and the importer’s target. The tender is expected to be scrapped, with the main tender likely to be floated in April after Eid. In the US, the market is adjusting to the implementation and subsequent delay of the 25% tariffs on Canadian imports announced last week. With farmers largely covered for the spring season, immediate concerns remain limited. Potash prices in New Orleans increased by an average of $6/st, while other benchmarks across the US remained relatively unchanged. Spot prices in Brazil rose to $335-337/t CFR this week following a sale, as most suppliers are sold out for April. Producers have shifted to May shipments, with $340/t CFR already confirmed. May offers range from $335-350/t CFR, while June prices are set at $350/t.
The ammonia market is soft with producers operating at full capacity and with sluggish demand in India and North East Asia where industrial demand is absent. Following on from the March settlement in Tampa at USD 460 PMT CFR, it appears that prices may hold for the immediate future with only the European market active due to production curtailment due to high gas prices.
check out at FERTILIZERS JAZZ Weekly review _ Week 10'25.
Review of the Week 10'25 in fertilizers, agriculture, natural gas market and shipping.
Bearish sentiment in urea is spreading across the globe, but it will be short term until India finally comes out with the tender. Traders started to send vessels to the US while waiting for the tender announcement, which influenced further downward correction at Nola. But in general activity was slow, as producers didn’t want to draw the market further down. Nitrates prices stabilized and active purchasing season is coming to the end in Europe. Sulfate market was stable to slightly softening amid weak demand and general bearish sentiment in nitrogen weighing on prices. Phosphates price level remained stable elevated with even signs of potential upward correction, and going over the roof sulfur price is one of the influencing factors. Ammonia price slipped further across the regions amid weak demand.
European gas price dropped sharply, and will most likely stay around this level further during the year. Gas price in the US increased to the highest level in the last two years amid very strong LNG stream, and this trend is expected to stay in place in 2025. Agricultural commodities future prices rebounded after sharp drop mostly amid news related to the US tariffs postponement. Container shipping costs dropped again, while healthy activity in bulk shipping resulted in increasing rates, especially in Capesize segment.
Morning. Urea Paper continued to drift lower y'day – April AG found value sub-$380, while April Nola traded down to $370 (from $377 day prior). Mkts framed:
AG
Mar $395//$406
Apr $370//$380 – traded $375-78
May $357//$372
Cfr Brazil
Mar $390//$400
Apr $372//$383
May $355//$375
Jun $360//$375
Jul $365//$385
Egypt
Mar $410//$422
Apr $377//$385
May $365//$382
Nola
Phys: Mar traded $384, $383, $381. FH Apr $381-80
Paper:
Mar $382//$390
Apr $370//$375 – traded $373, $371, $370
May $340//$350 – traded $342 (500t)
Jun $330//$345
UAN Nola
Mar $291//$299
Apr $297//$310
May $290//$310
Q2 $285//$300
DAP Nola
Mar $610//$620
Apr $580//$615
May $570//$580
This is Kun from ChinaFert. I hope this email finds you well.
We will be exhibiting at the Shanghai CAC Fshow, Booth No. 22M33, and we welcome you to arrange a meeting with us. Additionally, we will be attending the Argus Asia in Bali and IFA in Monaco. Please feel free to arrange a meeting in advance.
Weekly FOB prices
Ammonium Sulfate (Capro grade):FOB $145(Bulk)-Tianjin Port or River Port
Ammonium Sulfate (Mixed grade Granular):FOB $155(Bulk)-Tianjin Port
Ammonium Sulfate (Capro grade Granular):FOB $162(Bulk)-Tianjin Port
Potassium Sulfate (SOP) Powder: FOB $650(Break Bulk)-Tianjin Port
Potassium Sulfate (SOP) Granular: FOB $660 (Break Bulk)-Tianjin Port
Calcium Nitrate Granular: FOB $190(Container/Break Bulk)-Tianjin Port （FOB $180 Special Deal-small amount quantity）
Magnesium Sulfate(Flake): FOB$250(Container)-Tianjin Port
NP 20-20 : FOB $365 (Break Bulk)-Tianjin Port or Nanjin Port
NP 43-4 (Urea Based, High Tower):FOB $345-Tianjin Port
NK 40-0-5 (Urea Based, High Tower):FOB $355-Tianjin Port
NPK 10-20-10 (Bulk):FOB $415-Tianjin Port
NPK 22-6-12 (Bulk):FOB $355-Tianjin Port
Prilled Urea (9.5kg Bag):375FOB
Automotive Urea (9.5kg Bag): 385FOB
Financial Options: we can offer credit terms of 30-120 days for long-term stable clients. The interest rate will around 6% (annualized)
Upcoming Conference we will attend:
Argus-Asia-Bali,2025 (April 22nd-24th,2025)
IFA-Monaco,2025 (May12th-14th,2025)
Market Analysis and Summary
UREA
As of March 12, 2025, the total inventory of urea enterprises of Longzhong Data was 1.1934 million tons, a decrease of 29,300 tons from last week, a month-on-month decrease of 2.4%. The daily output of 200,000 tons was stable at a high level. Combined with the futures and spot supply and the supply of off-season storage, the supply was sufficient. There was generally a short-term gap in agricultural procurement. The start-up of compound fertilizers was mainly stable at a high level. Industrial demand for resumption of production increased slowly, and the demand decreased marginally. The supply and demand recovery continued to slow down this week, so the company's inventory was destocked but the magnitude continued to decrease. The mainstream spot price was in the range of RMB 1670-1820.
Ammonium Sulfate
This week, the price of ammonium sulfate (AMSUL) has seen a drop. The mainstream delivery price for mixed compacted ammonium sulfate from factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Inner Mongolia to Tianjin Port now ranges from 155–160 USD FOB. Offers for standard AMSUL have stablized around 145-147 USD FOB. As of Mar 7th, port inventories have reached 910,000 metric tons.
Best Regards,