Good day, Fransisco,
Market updates are given below
Have a good weekend!
■ Turkiye CAN
Customers from Europe, Egypt and Ukraine are showing demand for Turkish AN. Meanwhile, African buyers are also interested in Turkish CAN. Offers for both fertilizers, however, have been missing from the market at the end of Q1 2025. Gemlik has been supplying its product only domestically until May. Other suppliers may start offering AN and CAN for shipment abroad in April when export quotas for Q2 2025 come into effect. Reminder: Bagfas was quoting CAN to European customers at $300—303/t FOB Turkiye in bulk last week. The supplier is expected to ship 10,000 t of the fertilizer to Europe this week and two more CAN lots of unknown size into the region in April.
■ Egypt urea
Trade in Egyptian urea was dull late last week and early this one. Some local producers lowered their asking prices for the fertilizer again in an effort to boost the demand. Some of them were offering the granular variety at $400/t FOB Egypt, supposedly for H2 March dispatch, at the time, a $7.5/t decrease on the middle of last week. Around midweek, an Egyptian producer sold 14,000 t of granular urea to a trader at $385/t FOB Egypt for March dispatch to Europe. A lack of urea demand in Europe suggests that the trader covered its short positions with this batch. This deal made some urea makers reduce their asking prices for the granular variety even more, to $385/t FOB Egypt. Others are searching for firm bids from traders without announcing their price ideas. According to WFM’s sources, Egyptian granular urea is available at even lower prices. As producers apparently have some late March-shipped urea left unsold, they are ready to negotiate prices to sell off the product. However, a long delay in the launch of a purchase tender in India and a business lull in many European countries are holding traders back from buying Egyptian urea even at the decreased prices. In other news, NCIC has floated a sales tender for different fertilizers, including 5,000 t of granular urea, for late April dispatch. The tender is closing on 24 March. Netbacks from asking prices for the granular fertilizer have reached $378—385/t FOB Egypt in Italy and $395/t FOB Egypt in Ireland this week. Abu Qir reduced the prilled and granular urea capacity utilisation from 100% to 80—85% early this week because of technical issues and low gas availability. The company is expected to fix the malfunction by 21—23 March 2025. It is unclear, however, whether Abu Qir will return to maximum capacity as the gas shortage may persist. Some other Egyptian companies have also cut operating rates to nearly 80% for lack of gas, according to market sources. In 15 days of March, Egyptian producers exported around 87,852 t of urea through Damietta port, 80% more than in the same period of February. All cargoes went to Europe.
■ Brazil phosphates
Phosphate demand has increased in Brazil this week. Traders have lifted MAP 11:52/12:52 offers by $20/t to $650—660/t CFR Brazil. The latest sales of the fertilizer have been made at $7.5/t week-on-week higher prices of $640—645/t CFR Brazil, but some players insist that MAP 11:52/12:52 has been traded at $650—660/t CFR Brazil. Russian suppliers and the Moroccan one have reportedly been active on the market. Rumour has it that OCP has been offering its product at $650/t CFR Brazil equivalent. Saudi Arabia’s Ma’aden is going to ship 40,000 t of MAP at a formula-based price to Brazil in April. Considering all the above, WFM has changed the weekly MAP price assessment from $630—640/t CFR Brazil to $640—645/t CFR Brazil.
■ Argentina phosphates
Market players have reported that 30,000 t of DAP and 15,000 t of MAP 11:52 by Ma’aden have been purchased at about $670—673/t CFR Argentina, presumably for shipment in April. Reminder: Ma’aden previously sold 40,000 t of DAP at about $655/t CFR Argentina for shipment to this country in March.
■ Latin America, Morocco
OCP Nutricrops has sold 44,000 t of MAP destined for Latin America countries, excluding Brazil, at $655—680/t CFR for loading in March—April.
LONDON (ICIS)—Hearing granular urea business in Egypt at 370-375 FOB for April shipment. Last week business was done at 380-385 FOB. No other details available.
Morning. Urea prices taking a further step down on Fri – On Int'l paper, Apr AG/Egypt traded $365, while May AG traded to $350 (down $17 from start of week).
AG
Mar $390//$395
Apr $356//$365 – traded $365
May $345//$355 – traded $350
Cfr Brazil
Mar $388//$395
Apr $357//$372
May $355//$370
Jun $350//$370
Aug $360//$365
Sep $360//$370
Egypt
Mar $395//$407
Apr $358//$365 – traded $365
May $350//$365
Nola
Phys: March traded $376. Apr $363. Fh April $372, $370.
Mar $375//$383
Apr $360//$367
May $345//$355
Jun $330//$350
UAN Nola
Mar $294//$303
Apr $305//$315
May $292//$310
Q2 $285//$300
DAP Nola
Mar $610//$620
Apr $580//$610
May $582//$600
Major Cash Crops and Cultivation Regions in India 🌾🌿
1.Rice 🌾
Core Regions: Ganges Plain (West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh), coastal deltas (Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu).
Features: Monsoon-dependent; Punjab and Haryana adopt high-yield hybrid varieties.
2.Wheat 🌾
Core Regions: “India’s Breadbasket” – Punjab, Haryana, Western Uttar Pradesh.
Features: Winter crop (Rabi season), groundwater irrigation, world-leading yields.
3.Cotton 🧵
Core Regions: Deccan Plateau (Maharashtra, Gujarat), Punjab.
Features: >90% Bt cotton adoption, mechanized harvesting expanding.
4.Sugarcane 🎋
Core Regions: Uttar Pradesh (largest producer), Maharashtra, Karnataka.
Features: Tied to sugar mills; government-backed Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) system.
5.Tea 🍃
Core Regions: Northeast (Assam, Darjeeling), South (Nilgiri Hills, Tamil Nadu).
Features: Assam tea (bold, for milk tea); Darjeeling (floral, “Champagne of Teas”).
6.Spices 🌶
Turmeric: Tamil Nadu, Telangana;
Chilies: Andhra Pradesh (home to “Bhut Jolokia”), Telangana;
Cardamom: Western Ghats (Kerala).
7.Oilseeds 🌰
Groundnut: Gujarat, Rajasthan;
Mustard: Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh.
Consumption of AS in Australia doubled this year vs y on y – per unit N price more attractive than urea per unit n
I think the Chinese gov will put restrictions in place for the exports of AS
Indonesia, Kaltim's 21 March Sales Tender for 30-45kt gran urea, shipment 1st week of April
OE to be advised
H1 not known
Ameropa $370s
Samsung low $370s
Liven $368 for 11kt
Aditya $350s
Pusri allegedly sold at $391.88 fob
Morning. Int'l paper values remained under pressure y'day with activity across April/May AG & Egypt. Further out, Aug Brazil found value mid-$360s. In Nola, a loaded barge traded $377.
AG
Mar $390//$403
Apr $364//$370 – traded $369
May $355//$365 – traded $360
Cfr Brazil
Mar $387//$396
Apr $360//$372
May $355//$370
Jun $350//$375
Jul/Aug $355//$372 – Aug traded $365
Egypt
Mar $395//$407
Apr $365//$375 – traded $370
May $362//$370
Nola
Phys: Loaded traded $377
Mar $375//$383
Apr $360//$370
May $345//$355
Jun $330//$345
UAN Nola
Mar $294//$303
Apr $305//$315
May $292//$310
Q2 $285//$300
DAP Nola
Mar $610//$620
Apr $580//$610
May $582//$600
-UREA PRICES ARE STRUGGLING TO FIND A FLOOR IN THE ABSENCE OF A PURCHASE TENDER IN INDIA WITH NORTH AFRICAN PRICES TUMBLING USD 70 PMT SINCE FEBRUARY 2025
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES ARE INCREASING ON THE BACK OF LIMITED SUPPLIES WITH CHINA STILL ABSENT FROM INTERNATIONAL TRADING
-MAJOR POTASH MARKETS ARE TAKING A BREATHER ON DEMAND
-AMMONIA MARKETS EAST AND WEST OF SUEZ ARE SEEING PRODUCTION OUTSTRIPPING DEMAND AND PRICES ARE SET FOR A DOWNWARD TREND WITH THE TAMPA APRIL CFR PRICE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LOWER THAN THE CURRENT USD 540 PMT CFR
Continued delays by the India government agency IPL to announce a long time ago expected urea purchase tender are putting pressure on urea prices globally. Week by week prices are coming down across all regions. Albeit a small prilled urea tender held by Pupuk Indonesia saw the highest bid in the high USD 380s PMT FOB with the producer expectation of a price of USD 415 PMT FOB. For comparison, the highest bid on March 14th was USD 395 PMT FOB and the 18th February saw bids in the USD 430s PMT FOB. In other words, the price erosion has been substantial. On March 21st Indonesia will tender for another 45 KT granular urea and we will see another price discovery. Thailand buyers, who will enter into the main buying season following the conclusion of the Songkran Water Festival/Thailand New Year celebrations in the middle of April, are now looking at prices sub USD 400 PMT CFR, with most bids around USD 390 PMT CFR, down from highs of USD 450 PMT just a few weeks ago. Egyptian producers are now again facing gas delivery issues with plants said to be operating at around 75%. Export business is very slow with bids coming in around the USD 380 PMT FOB level. This is about USD 70 PMT lower than the peak in February 2025. Brazilian buyers are now expecting prices to come down substantially and bids are now at best around the USD 365-375 PMT CFR.
Middle East producers are looking at bids around the USD 370-380 PMT FOB although returns for Brazil business is closer to USD 340 PMT FOB. However, they appear not to be in much of a hurry with contract shipments to Thailand and Australia in process, some on formula basis, keeping inventories under control.
South Korean January-February urea imports fell 80,000 MT Y/Y down to 152,000 MT with Vietnam the largest supplier. The Chinese urea export situation is closely followed by the market and it appears that it will take some time until we see urea originating from China in the export market. According to some, the producers have requested the government to allow urea producers to export between 5-10% of their production during limited export windows. The outlook for the urea business and prices are bearish without India declaring an import tender. However, the big question now is if India can carry the market even if it comes in with a tender. As always, the urea price will need another major market like the US/NOLA to come in to salvage the price.
In the continued absence of Chinese processed phosphates prices are increasing in major markets. For the period January-February 2025 China exported only 66,000 MT of DAP, down 43% Y/Y. MAP exports for the same period were only 32,000 MT, down 67%.
Consequently, MAP prices in Brazil were said to be offered at USD 660 PMT CFR although reports of done business are down to around USD 640-645 PMT CFR. Last year's price for MAP was USD 570 PMT CFR. Ma'aden of Saudi Arabia reported a sale of 45,000 MT of DAP to Argentina netting back around USD 635 PMT FOB. India's situation on DAP is viewed as critical with inventories around 1 mill MT, which is considered empty. India's April 2024-February 2025 is down 14% to 9.1 million MT vs 10.48 million MT Y/Y. Due to Chinese absence, India has had to focus on DAP imports from alternative origins but has been reluctant to pay increased prices. This has resulted in increased sales of NP/NPK. There is no set date or month for resumption of Chinese exports with some indicating it would drag into May before any meaningful exports took place. On the other hand, China increased imports of NPK to 1.23 million MT in the calendar year of 2024, up 1.4% Y/Y.
On another note, US fertilizer producer MOSAIC expects phosphate and potash demand to exceed 80 million MT by the end of the decade which would mean phosphates up 7 million MT and potash up nearly 9 million MT. MOSAIC referenced biofuel demand, feed use, and food use as the main pillars of agriculture commodity demand growth.
The outlook for processed phosphate prices is bullish on the back of limited supply and increased demand in major markets.
Potash markets in Brazil, Southeast Asia, and the US experienced a dip in demand this week, while China focused on its second potash tender round. The Chinese MOP market has been a key focus this week as the second round of trading, running from 17-21 March, began, covering all regions in China. Potash tender results have shown lower prices in each round, although this has not yet been fully reflected in domestic prices. Port wholesale prices averaged RMB3,110/t FCA ($430/t) this week, still significantly higher than those in the tender. This has led to a flat to bullish market outlook in the short term. Additionally, the long-discussed Russia-China cross-border contract has been settled at $313/t DAP, up $43-46/t from February. Brazilian spot potash prices rose to $335-340/t CFR, amid slow demand. The market remains quiet, with buyers expected to hold off until May as they focus on securing phosphate before price increases. Producers are sold out for April, with May offers ranging from $335-350/t CFR, though no deals above $345/t CFR have been reported. Standard MOP prices in Southeast Asia firmed to an average of $315/t CFR, with rumours of $320-330/t CFR dominating discussions. Despite limited buying and sales during the Eid al-Fitr celebrations, prices are expected to rise after the public holidays due to tightening supply and limited Q2 offers. Granular MOP prices in the region are also expected to rise, with offers currently set at $335-345/t CFR for May loading.
With activity largely limited this week, ammonia prices on both sides of the Suez remained more or less stable, though supply and demand fundamentals continue to point to further declines moving into 2H March. Market participants continue to wait in anticipation of news from the US Gulf, where a Yara vessel remains headed to Texas City – home to the long-awaited 1.3 Mt/year Gulf Coast Ammonia (GCA) facility – amid suggestions the plant could finally be about to commence exports. If that is the case, the Tampa ammonia settlement for April may be agreed by Yara and Mosaic at an even greater discount to March’s $460/t CFR figure than what is already being mooted by market players this week. Further east, there was very little to change to fundamentals in Indonesia and Malaysia, where suppliers continue to ready term cargoes for export to the wider region. Spot demand remains largely absent in South Korea and Taiwan, China, with downstream run-rates said to be poor. In China, import appetite was similarly limited, though prices on the domestic market gained considerable ground this week after several inland plants went down for maintenance 1H March. Prices should remain stable-to-soft moving towards April, with the global supply glut showing no clear signs of tightening just yeah
Thursday, 20 March 2025 (Acerto)
Urea
Nigeria: Dangote has issued a sales tender, closing on 24 March, for the export of two cargoes of 30,000t of granular urea each, one for shipment 27-30 March and the other for loading 2-5 April from Lekki.
It follows the Nigerian producer's previous tender held on 20 February, in which similar tonnage was offered for mid-March lifting at a reported target price of $430/t FOB Lekki but bids were no better than $420/t FOB.
The results of the tender are to provide price guidance for buyers West of Suez.
L1 India keeps getting lower and lower
Morning. Thin activity on Int'l paper y'day, while Nola urea traded marginally lower; March paper/phys slipped under $380, April phys traded down to $365 before finding bid support.
AG
Mar $390//$403
Apr $365//$375
May $357//$368
Cfr Brazil
Mar $390//$400
Apr $363//$375
May $360//$370
Jun $365//$375 – traded $372 (500t)
Egypt
Mar $400//$412
Apr $370//$380
May $360//$375
Nola
Phys: Mar traded $378. Apr $367, $365. May $355
Mar $375//$380 – traded $377
Apr $360//$370
May $345//$355
Jun $330//$345
UAN Nola
Mar $291//$300
Apr $305//$315
May $292//$310
Q2 $285//$300
DAP Nola
Mar $610//$620
Apr $580//$610
May $582//$600
On the urea – the CNFA and nitrogen producers are trying to lobby the government to allow 5-10% of production, i.e. 3-5 Mt of urea, to be exported in the second half of this year, given the severe oversupply and reasonable urea price for local farmers.
19th march
Chengdu , china
The industry meeting today largely has been inconclusive in the face of the rally in sulphur prices and thereby domestic prices.
No decision on export policy has been taken today with some reliable sources expecting the decision to be delayed to next month.
The overall mood of the meeting has not been positive.
Further info is awaited.