CF Industries said in its latest nitrogen fertilizer market outlook that in the near-term it expects the global supply-demand balance to remain constructive.
The producer highlighted in its earnings release that global pricing was supported in Q1 of 2025 by positive global demand, constrained availability due in part to natural gas shortages in Iran, and China’s continued restrictions on urea exports.
CF said there is anticipated strong demand from not only global corn stocks-to-use ratio reaching its lowest level since 2013, but because there is below average global inventories and challenging production economics in Europe.
Looking at North America, CF said there should be strong nitrogen demand during the spring application season due to favorable returns for corn compared to soybeans, which is driving higher planted corn acres in 2025.
The producer noted that the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported in March that growers intend to plant 95.3 million acres of corn this season.
For Brazil, the company expects the country will remain the largest urea import region, with imports projected to exceed 8 million tonnes, with this outlook supported by strong planted corn acreage and continued nominal domestic nitrogen production.
In India, there is less urea inventory with CF saying that lower-than-targeted domestic production and higher year on year urea sales pushed urea inventory levels down by approximately 35% compared to March 2024.
As a result, their management expects higher urea import requirements for the rest of this year to meet grower demand and replenish urea stocks.
Across Europe the producer is projecting that ammonia operating rates and overall domestic nitrogen product output will remain below historical averages over the long-term given the region’s status as the global marginal producer.
For China, CF said the ongoing urea export controls continue to limit availability from the country with minimal volumes concluded in Q1 of 2025.
The company feels that urea exports will not resume until the conclusion of China’s domestic spring application season at the earliest.
In Russia, urea exports are expected to increase 3% in 2025 due to the start-up of new urea granulation capacity and the willingness of certain countries to purchase Russian fertilizer, including the US and Brazil.
CF also is expecting that over the medium-term the significant energy cost differentials between North American producers and high-cost producers in Europe and Asia are expected to persist.
As a result, the global nitrogen cost structure would then remain supportive of strong margin opportunities for low-cost North American producers.
In the longer-term view CF is projecting that the global nitrogen supply demand balance will further tighten as global capacity growth over the next four years is forecasted to not keep pace with the expected rise in global demand.
Those needs are anticipated to have a growth rate of approximately 1.5% per year for traditional applications and see more new demand emerging for clean energy applications.
CF has a view that global production will remain constrained by poor margins for European ammonia producers and availability of natural gas in Egypt, Iran and Trinidad
The paper market has continued to decline this week across all international markets, following the trend triggered by news from China.
Prices have dropped a further $5–10 compared to the previous week.
There is significant uncertainty in the markets.
Jun AG $355/$370
Jul AG $350/$365
Aug AG $350/$360
Jun Egypt $353/$360
Jul Egypt $355/$365
Aug Egypt $355/$365
Jun Brazil $355/$365
Jul Brazil $350/$360
Aug Brazil $350/$365
Jun MAP Brazil $675/$710
Jul MAP Brazil $675/$710
Aug MAP Brazil $675/$710
Jun AS Brazil $175/$188
Jul AS Brazil $175/$188
Aug AS Brazil $175/$188
Stateside: Urea Nola
May $480/490
Jun $380/395
Jul $350/370
DAP Nola
May $650/660
Jun $650/660
Jul $650/660
UAN
May $350/360
Jun $320/350
Jul $300/340
Morning. With China already seemingly 'open for business,' buyers scaling back on Int'l paper. In Nola, May phys traded down $20+/-on the day, Q3/Q4 months trading $350-$355 on paper.
AG
May $370//$378
Jun $345//$358
Jul $340//$355
Aug $345//$355
Cfr Brazil
May $372//$385
Jun $355//$365
Jul $348//$357
Aug $345//$360
Sep $347//$360
Egypt
May $365//$380
Jun $353//$357 – traded $354
Jul $351//$358
Nola
Phys: Moving traded $540; May traded $480,$475,$472,$470, $465, $462
Paper:
May $450//$475
Jun $360//$395
Jul $340//$355 – traded $350
Aug $340//$355 – traded $350
Sep $345//$355 – traded $355
Q4 $335//$360 – Oct traded $353, Nov $355
UAN Nola
May $350//$360
Jun $340//$350
Aug $250//$290
Sep $255//$295
DAP Nola
May $635//$655
Jun $635//$660
Q3 $650//$665
Q4 $630//$655
Validity: 5 days
Payment method: TT30% in advance and 70% when confirming the copy of the bill of lading.
Time of shipment: transport to the loading port within 15-25 days after receiving the advance payment.
Initiative on Strengthening Industry Self-discipline, Benefiting and Farming
Since April 30, the nitrogen fertilizer industry is studying the establishment of a self-regulatory mechanism for urea export, strengthening the industry's self-discipline, and realizing the orderly and benign export of urea; at the same time, the backbone enterprises should respond to the association's call to shoulder the responsibility of maintaining the supply and stabilizing the price in the domestic market, and should never take advantage of the opportunity to increase the price in the domestic market and destroy the good policy environment for the development of the industry.Enterprises should make joint efforts to create conditions for benign and healthy development of nitrogen fertilizer industry.
Since April 30th due to information asymmetry, coupled with the industry for the export will pull the domestic market up thinking inertia, speculative capital to sharply raise futures prices, which in turn led to a sharp rise in spot prices.This is obviously not conducive to the fertilizer supply and support the overall situation of China's agricultural production, but also contrary to the nitrogen fertilizer industry to establish a self-regulatory mechanism of urea exports.In order to stabilize market expectations and promote the stable operation of the domestic fertilizer market, China Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry Association (CNFIA) has issued the following initiatives to the whole industry:
First, the backbone enterprises of nitrogen fertilizer should take the initiative to let the farmers benefit, and adjust the ex-factory price of urea back to no higher than the level before May 6 within 3 days (relative to the price at the end of April not higher than 100 yuan per ton).If there are individual enterprises can not comply with this industry self-regulation initiatives, destroy the hard-won good policy environment for the development of the industry, will be suspended member services and bear the consequences of the corresponding policies.
Secondly, we should strengthen industry self-discipline, realize orderly and healthy export of urea, and resolutely put an end to the "in-roll" low price competition for international market share, which will not be recognized by the Association.We will work together to realize the sustainable and healthy development of nitrogen fertilizer industry.
Tech Urea – meifeng
-THE GLOBAL UREA MARKET HAS BEEN THROWN A CURVEBALL BY THE IMMINENT RESUMPTION OF UREA EXPORTS FROM CHINA LEADING TO UREA PRICES FALLING ACROSS THE BOARD EXCEPT FOR THE US/NOLA WHERE PRICES ARE LIVING THEIR OWN LIVES AT THE TAIL END OF THE APPLICATION SEASON
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES ARE AGAIN ON THE MOVE UP DUE TO LACK OF AVAILABILITY WHICH COULD SOON EASE WITH THE RESUMPTION OF EXPORTS FROM CHINA EXPECTED SOME TIME IN MAY
-POTASH PRICES ARE MOVING UP BUT MOMENTUM IS WEAK
-AMMONIA MARKETS SUFFER SUBDUED DEMAND WITH ABUNDANT SUPPLY
The international urea market is in disarray particularly on the lack of an official directive from the Chinese government on export policy. On May 7th the Economic and Trade Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a special symposium on fertilizer exports. The meeting conducted in-depth discussion on the orderly promotion of urea and phosphate fertilizer exports for 2025. Without going into details it appears that there will be a quota system with products allocated to companies qualifying and that the export period is tentatively set between May – September. The total export volume has not been decided other than it cannot be larger than the export scale in 2023. One particular note from the meeting is that it states that "fertilizer export to India is prohibited this year."
Again, it must be repeated that the above is yet to become official and that an official export program could take another week or two to be ironed out.
However, following on from this meeting it appears that granular urea is now being offered at USD 370 PMT FOB major ports China with prilled urea at a lesser price. These prices are considerably lower than the going rate over the past couple of weeks with SE Asia producers having sold at prices just above USD 400 PMT FOB.
Buyers in major import markets are now wary of what will happen and as a result reluctant to engage. Brazil, although out of season, liquidity is light with products earlier in the week offered at USD 390 PMT CFR, then USD 380 PMT CFR with buyers bidding around USD 360 PMT CFR. January – April urea imports were 1.78 million MT, down 199,000 MT or 10% Y/Y. Nigeria was the main supplier increasing volumes by 25% to 588,000 MT. US/NOLA is now at the tail end of import season and May barges traded at USD 475-480 per short ton FOB barge, down USD 20-25 per short ton on last done for May. Further out, full June barges are now on offer at sub USD 400 per short ton equal to USD 432-435 PMT CFR duty paid. Total imports of urea to the US for the period July 2024 to May 2025 reached 3.6 million MT, up 150 KT Y/Y with Russia being the largest at 909 KT and Qatar at 802 KT. Exports total 733 KT of which Canada took 503 KT thus net imports to the US were 2.88 million MT.
Pupuk Indonesia's attempt to agree on a long term contract of 700,000 MT for the next few months appears to have failed with one company bidding 140 KT with a delta of USD 1.11 per metric basis, a formula price with reference to a published SE Asia midpoint FOB price. Another participant bid 250 KT so the two combined fell short of the desired 700 KT. What will happen next has yet to be decided. Further, a tender late this week of 12 KT prilled urea from producer Gresik appears to have attracted limited interest.
In summary, there is a lot of uncertainty currently prevailing in the urea industry with the long anticipated exports of urea from China appearing to come through albeit with no clarity at this point on what terms and conditions. What is obvious is that downward pressure on prices is building across the board.
Contrary to the urea industry, the availability of processed phosphates remains exceptionally tight exemplified with MAP in Brazil now offered by OCP of Morocco at USD 740 PMT yet affordability due to low soybean prices persist and farmers are reluctant to engage anything above a range of between USD 700-710 PMT. This compares to a price of around USD 636 PMT CFR which stood still for about 8 months. DAP in India is now up USD 65 PMT from just a few weeks ago with the latest deal of a Ma'aden 45 KT cargo sold at USD 720 PMT CFR. This is up from the maximum price tried achieved by the government of India at USD 695 PMT CFR. Contributing to the tightness in availability is lack of exports from China. A decision on China's export policy is expected over the coming week, with the policy currently under discussion. The lack of China supply is the key driver of tight global availability, with the country's Q1 DAP/MAP exports down to a 23-year low at 111,046 t, marking a 54% decrease from 2024 Q1. The volume compares with 1.5 Mt as recently as 2021 Q1 and 1.17 Mt in 2023 Q1. However, it now appears that exports will resume some time in the latter part of May. Another reason for the tight supply of DAP is the emergency of another DAP tender in Ethiopia. In the past they used to buy NPS from Morocco but this relationship has ended.
US fertilizer producer MOSAIC is warning that trade flow changes precipitated with the Trump administration on and off again tariffs has led to China buying their soybeans from Brazil rather than the US. Brazil is considered the largest exporter of soybeans with expectations of 2024/2025 total exports of 105 million MT of which China will buy 70% as in the past. Consequently, demand for fertilizers will also shift from one country or more to others.
Prices are expected to increase further over the coming weeks, as demand picks up while supply remains exceptionally tight. Affordability concerns persist, but buyers have limited options. Any reversal in direction now seems unlikely until at least Q3, and that will depend on supply improving and buyers becoming more comfortable.
Potash prices have risen in Brazil, China, and Europe, but momentum remains weak. The market is still on edge, and waiting for the outcome of the Pupuk Indonesia tender, which closed nearly a month ago on 14 April. Another week has passed without the anticipated outcome of the Pupuk Indonesia tender. Fresh rumours emerged this week regarding cargo allocations, with some producers confirming details, while others dismissed or declined to comment. The new deadline is set for 16 May, after an extension from the 11 May date. Producers in the region are becoming increasingly bullish, with expectations that Pupuk Indonesia will accept the lowest offer of $360/t CFR, although the tender remains unresolved. In response to this uncertainty and growing momentum, some producers have raised price offers in the region, though no sales at these new levels have been confirmed. Prices in the region remained stable this week, averaging $345/t CFR for sMOP and $355/t CFR for gMOP, though an upward price movement is expected. Brazilian MOP prices climbed to $355-360/t CFR, reflecting previous deals for June deliveries, as May loading has been fully sold out for several weeks. While there is debate about whether June volumes remain available, the momentum for price increases has slowed for July offers. Current offers are in the range of $360-370/t CFR, with the market showing resistance to the $370/t CFR levels. No offers for August have emerged yet, as producers remain focused on pushing prices higher for July shipments.
Potash prices globally are expected to peak in Q3, driven by strong demand and tight supply constraints, before gradually declining thereafter.
Ammonia markets on both sides of the Suez continue to be characterised by healthy supply and subdued demand, although some benchmarks appear to be on the verge of reaching a floor east of Suez. The top news of the week emerged from the Middle East, where Japanese trader Mitsui moved to secure at least 25,000 t spot material from producer Sabic AN at $310/t FOB. The premium on that deal – around $40/t on recent notional indications – can likely be attributed to Mitsui securing a favourable freight rate for the newbuild set to load the cargo at the end of May. The tonnes will likely head west of Suez to either Europe or Morocco, from where the tanker is expected to move into the LPG market. Elsewhere in the region, Ma’aden said that a seven-week turnaround at its 1.1 Mt/year No.1 ammonia unit will commence as planned this weekend.
The general underlying price trend should remain bearish heading into 2H May, although price direction should be shaped by discussions at next week’s IFA conference in Monaco.
Stein Chingen Haugan
Managing Director
fertiMetrics pte ltd
Mobile / Whats App: +65 8328 7681 – Singapore
Email: stein@fertimetrics.com
Skype: steinhaugan1955
WeChat: stein0813
Line: steinh
www.fertimetrics.com
Council Member World Agriculture Forum
*Prices up*
Spot market sees a $29/mt increase.
*Supply tight*
Limited spot availability reported.
*Demand surges*
Importers are seeking 12+ tons.
*Prices up*
Spot market sees a $35/mt increase.
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
*Supply tight*
Limited spot availability reported.
*Demand surges*
Importers are seeking 38+ tons.