*Freight steady*
No major changes in rates.
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
*Supply tight*
Limited spot availability reported.
*Analyst note*
Market sentiment: 26.
*Prices up*
Spot market sees a $23/mt increase.
*Demand surges*
Importers are seeking 13+ tons.
*Demand surges*
Importers are seeking 22+ tons.
*Freight steady*
No major changes in rates.
*Prices up*
Spot market sees a $26/mt increase.
I’ll cut to the chase. Here are my initial thoughts on the immediate impacts the Israel-Iran conflict may have on sulphur.
The first and most direct: those who buy sulphur from Iran will be impacted.
There are three key sulphur exporters in Iran. Export volumes have fluctuated over the years, but in recent times, exports from Iran have clearly declined. We believe the three companies collectively export an average of around 60,000-70,000 t/month of sulphur at present.
Iran’s top two sulphur trading partners last year were China and India, so these two countries will be affected. And yes, China already responded by buying some spot tonnes over the past week.
But it’s important to stress that the buying is not because of an actual disruption in sulphur supply — not yet. With the first attacks only taking place on June 12, any shortfall has yet to be felt. It is the anticipation of a decline that led to China’s purchases, so there is a level of speculation involved.
Landlocked Turkmenistan also relies on Iran for sulphur transit, exporting an estimated 70,000-80,000 t/month. Since June 12, Turkmenistan sulphur has not been allowed to transit via Iran, and on June 13, Iran closed the border. Sulphur movement via trucks and rail through the Sarakhs crossing is now suspended. Turkmen exports could potentially be re-routed via a Black Sea port or through Poti in Georgia, although Poti is currently congested.
We should, of course, watch for broader supply chain interruptions — shipping, phosphate fertilizers, oil and gas, you name it. For now, the sulphur price drops have stopped, but it’s too early to say whether the market has bottomed out. Just my two cents.
[Urea] On June 20, the daily production of the urea industry was 195,100 tons, a decrease of 0.49 thousand tons from the previous working day and an increase of 19,900 tons from the same period last year; the current operational rate was 84.28%, an increase of 3.38% from the 80.90% recorded last year.
Morning. Int'l urea mkts pushed higher yday – Algeria phys sales reported $536 by close ($520 start of day, $443-71 on Mon), as paper values also ran up in an active trading day; Jul/Aug AG traded $20+ into $480s, Jul Brazil traded to $500cfr, w/ Aug just shy of there.
AG
Jun $396//$408
Jul $485//$500 – traded $468, $480 (1k), $485
Aug $475//$493 – traded $465, $468, $489
Sep $460//$480
cfr Brazil
Jun $407//$420
Jul $495//$505 – traded $483,$488, $495, $498, $500
Aug $495//$505 – traded $492.50, $499
Sep/Oct $470//$490
Egypt
Jun $415//$430
Jul $480//$510
Aug $475//$510
Nola
Phys: July traded $412
Paper:
Jun $375//$400
Jul $425//$435
Aug $433//$440 – traded $437
Sep $440//$450
Q3 $435//445 – traded $435
Q4 $430//$460
UAN Nola
Jun $340//$370
Aug $250//$290
Sep $250//$290
DAP Nola
Jun $710//$720
Jul $715//$725
Sep $715//$730
Q3 $710//$720
Q4 $675//$690 – traded $715
Q1 $650//$670
MAP Brazil
Jun $730//$745
Jul $730//$750
Aug $725//$745
-THE CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST HAS CREATED HAVOC WITH LIMITED SUPPLIES AND EVER INCREASING UREA PRICES
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES APPEAR TO KEEP ON INCREASING DUE TO LIMITED SUPPLIES WITH BOTH INDIA AND BRAZIL NEEDING LARGE IMPORTS OF DAP AND MAP RESPECTIVELY
-POTASH PRICES ARE STEADY WITH SOME CONCERNS THAT A PRICE CEILING HAS BEEN REACHED IN BRAZIL DUE TO AFFORDABILITY
-AMMONIA PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE REACHED A FLOOR DUE TO THE CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST WHICH COULD LIMIT SUPPLIES
UREA
The international fertilizer industry in general but the nitrogen sector in particular has been severely impacted by the conflict between Israel and Iran. There is a 24-7 continuous rolling by the minute set of news emerging thus difficult to assess the real impact of the crisis. At the time of writing this report, the following scenario has presented itself.
All seven urea production units in Iran with the main exporters being Pardis, Lordegan, MIS, KPIC, and Shiraz, have been idled with Iran’s annual urea capacity said to be close to 9 million metric tons with exports at 4.5 million MT annual yet sanctioned by the USA. Iran’s urea/ammonia production facilities have remained halted since 14 June and all ammonia in storage tanks has now been flared for safety reasons, according to local sources.
Now urea plants are understood to have been damaged to date in the ongoing conflict with Israel. An Israeli drone hit the Fajr Jam gas refinery’s onshore section of Phase 14 of Iran’s South Pars field 14 June causing a large blast and taking out about 12 million cubic meters of gas production. Since that event, urea producers have emptied their ammonia tanks to reduce the risk of further explosions.
Major receivers are importers in Turkey and Brazil. No urea/ammonia facilities are believed to have been struck, but two natural gas facilities that supply Iran’s domestic market were hit on 14 June and nitrogen plants are understood to be flaring ammonia from storage tanks in case of further attacks.
Iran – net urea production 8.7 Mt/year or 725,000 t/month
Iran – sulphur exports in 2024 of 1.6 Mt, around 100,000-150,000 t/month currently.
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In addition, Egypt has idled all nitrogen facilities since gas from Israel has been stopped. All urea and ammonia production halted 13 June after Israel ceased pipeline exports of natural gas to Egypt. Production in Egypt is expected to remain shut down until gas imports from Israel resume, according to local sources, who suggest this is unlikely to occur until hostilities between Iran and Israel cease or at least subside significantly. Production by producer:
· MOPCO: Three granular urea lines which produce around 635,000t/year each.
· ABU QIR: One prilled urea line capable of producing 580,000t/year along with one granular urea line producing 635,000t/year.
· FERTIGLOBE/EFC: Two lines producing a combined 1.7m. tonnes/year of granular urea.
· NCIC: One granular urea line on the Red Sea coast with a capacity of 380,000t/year.
· KIMA: One granular urea line producing 570,000t/year of granular urea.
· ALEXFERT: One granular urea line producing 635,000t/year of granular urea.
· HELWAN: One granular urea line producing 650,000t/year granular urea line.
Egypt – net urea production 7.7 Mt/year or 640,000 t/month
Egypt – DAP+MAP production 300,000-350,000 t/year, 450,000 t/year capacity.
TSP is 250,000-300,000 t/year production, 385,000 t/year capacity.
The threat of Iran closing the Hormuz Strait would severely restrict more than 40% of global off-shore urea traded with producers from Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia plus Egypt all being prevented from shipping to export markets. In 2024 the following exports of urea took place among the top 10 producing countries:
Russia 8.8 mill MT – Qatar 5.3 mill MT – Iran 4.5 mill MT – Egypt 4.3 mill MT – Oman 3.9 mill MT – Saudi Arabia 3.9 mill MT – Nigeria 3.1 mill MT – Algeria 2.8 mill MT for a total of 32.7 million MT representing around 60% of global annual off-shore trade of 55 million MT.
Russia, the largest exporter of urea in 2024 at 8.9 million MT, is at war with Ukraine and has been targeting nitrate facilities in the Ukraine. In addition, the European Union has introduced annually escalating tariffs on Russian fertilizers imports. China has implemented a limited export program with only 2 million MT made available until the end of September.
Shipping war risk insurance for the Middle East region has increased although not significantly yet, according to a report. War risk has been around $30,000-40,000 for handysize + supramax carriers to enter and leave the region for some years. A marginal increase in insurance has not added much to the cost of freight yet. Owners will do as much as possible to avoid their vessels becoming stranded should the Strait of Hormuz be closed, or passage in the region restricted.
Navigating all the issues at stake makes for volatility in pricing and with NOLA/US in mind prices on granular urea in the barge went from USD 350 ST to USD 425 ST then back to USD 390 ST. Prices in Algeria went from well below USD 400 PMT FOB to USD 500 PMT FOB in just a matter of days and hours. In the very latest development, Sorfert of Algeria has traded 10,000t of granular urea at 520/t FOB port of Arzew for July shipment to a European market. This price is up USD 82 PMT in less than a week.
The sale marks an increase of $20/t on previous July granular business at $500/t FOB earlier this week. Brazil August urea traded at USD 480 PMT CFR up USD 12.50 from the last settlement. Brazil is a large importer of Iranian urea with imports in 2024 of 1.33 million MT and stands to be materially impacted with the upcoming buying season. Chinese granular urea price is now reported at USD 420 PMT FOB which is USD 50 PMT above the floor price for exports set at USD 370 PMT for granular urea and USD 360 PMT for prilled urea.
India tendered for 1.5 million MT of urea and the Level 1 West Coast India price was at USD 399 PMT CFR offered by two companies for a total of 229,000 MT – all other bidders have gone into hiding due to escalating urea prices yet NFL, the India government purchasing agency, keeps extending the timeline for bids at no avail.
Prices on urea have shot up across the board with the latest FOB Middle East price at USD 450 PMT and Algeria at USD 520 PMT FOB. However, should the Hormuz Strait become closed we could see prices of urea not seen since COVID week 15 of 2022 when Algeria sold granular urea at USD 1,150 PMT FOB.
The outlook for urea prices is anyone’s guess – what is certain is that if there is an increased tension in the Middle East, and it continues for an extended period of time, urea prices will go up! Already we see affordability being an issue with Australian farmers reportedly reluctant to buy urea at prevailing Middle East FOB prices around the USD 450 PMT FOB level.
PHOSPHATES
There is no change in the sentiment on processed phosphate with prices going up and up despite China emerging as an active international provider of key products, with all the DAP offered in the Ethiopia tender were of Chinese origin. EABC closed its postponed tender for 170,000t DAP on 16 June, receiving offers for a total of 330,000t. All offers were for products sourced from China, with the lowest (L1) reported at around $721pt fob.
The DAP tender called for offers in three lots on a FOB basis with or without 30 days credit with June and July shipment dates.
Saudi Arabia's Ma'aden reported 18 June it had concluded the sale of 100,000 t DAP to two buyers in India at $775/t CFR for July loading. This follows previous India DAP business in the mid-USD 770s per MT CFR. NFL’s 50,000 MT DAP tender, which closed 13 June, is understood to have been awarded to a trader at $781.50/t CFR, though neither the buyer nor the seller fully confirmed the deal. A lack of conclusions left the India DAP spot assessment unchanged last week at $757–764/t CFR. The assessment mid-point is up from $636/t CFR in mid-March and $695/t CFR at the start of May, and is now at its highest level since September 2022. Latest from India is that prices for DAP have reached above USD 800 PMT CFR for July shipment. MAP prices in Brazil are said to be above USD 750 PMT CFR, however, affordability has become a real issue with farmers. Sources argue that it is challenging to get farmers to accept the recent price hikes, particularly as affordability relative to downstream agricultural commodities has continued to worsen, and by some measures is at its worst level in more than a decade. Meanwhile, market participants in Brazil continue to struggle with credit access. Some distributors said that they were receiving no price enquiries for MAP at all. Still, suppliers were comfortable and under little pressure to stop raising prices, while buyers still have requirements to cover for the Safrinha season.
DAP offers to Pakistan are suggested by some local sources around the low $760spt cfr, but demand in the market remains non-existent with bids completely lacking.
The current breakeven to import and sell DAP inland in Pakistan is no higher than $720pt cfr, and demand even at this price level is weak due to extremely low affordability for farmers.
DAP sales to Pakistan have been lacking for multiple weeks. Prior deals to the market were concluded by importers in anticipation of an increase in domestic prices, which has not materialised.
The outlook for processed phosphate prices is bullish with no relief in sight until Q3 all subject to increased supplies.
POTASH
Potash prices rose this week across Southeast Asia, Northwest Europe, China, and the US following recent contract settlements, while the market closely monitors the Israel-Iran conflict for potential supply disruptions. Israel's potash production remains unaffected and at full capacity, according to ICL.
ICL produced 3.7 Mt potash in 2024, approximately 5% of global potash supply, exporting 3.4 MT. The outlook for potash prices is bullish although some concerns exist on what will happen in Brazil where sentiment is that prices may have reached a ceiling due to farmers affordability issues. Prices have remained flat at around $363/t CFR for six weeks. Limited buying and strong farmer resistance are keeping prices steady, with August offers near $370/t CFR struggling to gain traction. Market participants doubt prices will reach $380/t CFR, citing persistent farmer pushback and a widening gap between import costs and domestic prices, which is squeezing supply chain margins.
AMMONIA
Despite heightened tensions in the Middle East and subsequent impacts to regional supply, ammonia prices for the most part remained stable for now, with supply-demand dynamics still largely balanced, though confirmation of latest rumoured business could support sentiment moving forward. With Iranian producers reportedly focused on emptying their ammonia tanks due to the outbreak of the conflict with Israel, several carriers are expected to load shortly, with talk of a spot cargo sold at sub-$250pt fob for prompt loading. Further details about that potential deal should emerge as the week progresses, with other suppliers in the wider region saying there has been no immediate uptick in enquiries from buyers in India and Turkey who regularly receive Iranian cargoes. According to data below, Iran exported around 780,000t of ammonia via marine vessel in 2024, well up on the 583,000t loaded in the year prior. So far in 2025, close to 400,000t has left the country, the majority of which has been shipped to buyers on both coasts of India. The loss of Iranian volume would be felt most keenly by Indian buyers, although of more concern would be any disruption in the Straits of Hormuz that would hinder the timely passage of a combined monthly average of 300,000t from major producers in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The region’s largest exporter is Ma’aden, with the Saudi giant currently preparing to load three cargoes of around 25,000t each for term buyers East of Suez. Several other tankers that move material for other leading players are due to arrive in the region before the end of the month.
The top 10 leading ammonia producing countries are:
Trinidad 2.9 mill MT – Saudi Arabia 2.2 mill MT – Indonesia 1.7 mill MT – Canada 1.1 mill MT – USA 1.0 mill MT – Algeria 1.0 mill MT – Iran 0.8 mill MT – Russia 0.6 mill MT Oman 0.5 mill MT – The Netherlands 0.5 mill MT for a total of 12.3 mill MT representing around just above 60% of global off-shore trade of around 20 mill MT.
As we can see from the above the top ten leading ammonia producing countries are more spread than those of urea, however, the conflict between Iran and Israel has widespread trade flow ramifications – with India, as mentioned above, standing to suffer the most with large imports of Iran ammonia. Prices may well have found a floor with both Iranian and Egyptian production offline as of 19 June, with rising natural-gas prices also likely to support sentiment going forward.
Stein Chingen Haugan
Managing Director
fertiMetrics pte ltd
Mobile / Whats App: +65 8328 7681 – Singapore
Email: stein@fertimetrics.com
Skype: steinhaugan1955
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www.fertimetrics.com
Council Member World Agriculture Forum
Here is the translation of the chemical fertilizer industry chain morning briefing:
*Longzhong Chemical Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Brief: (2025-06-20)
Phosphorus Chemicals:
Yesterday, the domestic yellow phosphorus market continued its weak downward trend. Factory acceptance prices in Yunnan-Guizhou-Sichuan regions were 22,100-22,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Major manufacturers lowered their quotes by 100-200 yuan/ton to 22,100-22,300 yuan/ton. Downstream factory procurement tender results continued to decline, and market sentiment fell into a pessimistic wait-and-see state in the afternoon. Demand-side procurement strongly pressured prices down, and the spot market was under downward pressure. Due to the temporary lack of strong market support, the yellow phosphorus market is expected to operate weakly in the short term.
Yesterday, mainstream phosphoric acid factory quotes remained temporarily stable. The yellow phosphorus market was affected by sales tenders with prices declining slightly. Thermal process acid companies mainly adopted a cautious wait-and-see approach, with relatively sufficient factory inventory awaiting shipment. The wet-process phosphoric acid market focused mainly on shipments with flexible sales policies. In Sichuan region, thermal process phosphoric acid净水 ex-factory reference price was 6,300-6,350 yuan/ton.
Phosphate rock demand-side operating rates remained at low levels, downstream stocking enthusiasm was moderate, buyers and sellers were still in a standoff, and mainstream mines had positive price-supporting expectations. Reference prices for 28% grade phosphate rock truck delivery including tax in Guizhou Weng’an region were around 900 yuan/ton, while in Kaiyang region, 30% grade truck delivery including tax transaction prices were 950-980 yuan/ton, with high-end quotes above 1,020 yuan/ton.
Sulfur:
Yesterday, domestic port spot market conditions fluctuated slightly, with price range reference at 2,450-2,460 yuan/ton, mainstream reference price down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. Domestic large refinery sales tender results increased by 2 yuan/ton compared to the previous period, but the market boosting effect was not significant. Terminal procurement demand remained sluggish, and although there were intentions to release buying orders, there was a clear divergence in psychological expectations between buyers and sellers. Regarding USD resources, there were reports of USD resource transactions in the Chinese market at prices around CFR 290-295 USD/ton. The spot market is expected to continue operating with volatility in the short term.
Sulfuric Acid:
Yesterday, the domestic sulfuric acid market operated with regional differences. Yunnan market was affected by last week’s Honghe acid plant price increase and this week’s strong sulfur upward movement, with Yunnan’s main acid plants raising acid prices by 20 yuan/ton yesterday. Gansu’s main acid companies’ prices were at high levels within the region, plus recent slight inventory increases and downstream companies’ maintenance plans created negative demand-side news, leading to a 70 yuan/ton price reduction yesterday. Currently, Yunnan market 98% smelting acid delivered prices are 670-700 yuan/ton, while Gansu 98% smelting acid ex-factory prices are around 480-570 yuan/ton.
Urea:
Yesterday, the domestic urea market continued its strong upward trend, but the momentum slowed compared to previous days, with some factories maintaining stable quotes. Although companies currently have pending order support, acceptance of high-price transactions is limited. Downstream demand remains cautious in procurement, and traders lack motivation for continued price chasing. Price increases are expected to slow and stabilize in the short term.
Synthetic Ammonia:
The synthetic ammonia market showed mixed sentiment yesterday with both gains and losses. The overall market trading center shifted downward, with some regions experiencing price increases due to temporary equipment fluctuations. Overall downstream demand was weak, ammonia plants faced more difficult shipments than before, inventory was under pressure, and some factories switched production or shut down. The synthetic ammonia market is expected to operate weakly in the near term.
Ammonium Chloride:
Yesterday, the ammonium chloride market operated weakly with poor shipment performance. Most transactions were negotiated case-by-case. Although some companies reduced production or shut down for maintenance, compound fertilizer companies further reduced operations, decreasing rigid demand for ammonium chloride. Therefore, the weak trend in the short-term ammonium chloride market is difficult to change.
Ammonium Sulfate:
Yesterday, the domestic ammonium sulfate market continued its exploratory upward trend. Northern caprolactam plants maintained high quotes with few transactions at high levels. Currently, international urea prices are high, and with the upcoming export peak season, downstream manufacturers showed good stocking enthusiasm. However, as prices continued to climb, market fear of heights increased, and the short-term market is expected to be dominated by stalemate and wait-and-see attitudes.
Melamine:
Yesterday, the domestic melamine market rose narrowly, but post-increase market transactions cooled somewhat. Downstream fear of high prices emerged, but cost support remained relatively firm. The market is expected to operate with minor fluctuations in the short term.
Potash Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the domestic potassium chloride market continued in a state of high-price closure, with traders mainly holding back sales, inconsistent quotes, mostly waiting for downstream factory acceptance. Available circulating sources in the market were insufficient. Resource-based potassium sulfate manufacturers had low equipment operating rates, with traders in various regions having inconsistent sales prices and transactions negotiated individually.
Phosphate Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market consolidated. Hubei 55 powder mainstream ex-factory prices were no less than 3,350-3,400 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations maintained. The downstream compound fertilizer market entered the off-season with low equipment operating loads and cautious raw material procurement mentality, with small-scale stocking. However, supported by costs, pending shipments, and market sentiment, consolidation operation is maintained in the short term.
Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate market consolidated with wait-and-see attitude. Hubei region 64% ex-factory prices maintained at 3,800-3,850 yuan/ton, mainly with actual order negotiations, and companies actively executing export orders. The demand side still showed a lukewarm attitude, with downstream mainly purchasing as needed. The market is expected to continue its consolidation trend in the short term.
Compound Fertilizer:*
Yesterday, the compound fertilizer market was mainly consolidating. Some raw material price increases provided some boost to market sentiment. Autumn pre-sales began in some regions, but mostly with policy incentives like interest calculations, with few price announcements. The compound fertilizer market is expected to continue wait-and-see in the short term, awaiting further market clarity. Key focus should be on raw material trends and details of major companies’ new autumn pricing.
LONDON (ICIS)-In Algeria, another granular sale for 25,000 tonnes at 536 FOB from AOA for August shipment. Don’t know buyer.