Market Price Disclosure and Industry Initiatives for Ammonium Phosphate Products
In order to maintain the stable order of the phosphate and ammonium market and ensure the smooth progress of agricultural production, the Phosphorus Fertilizer Industry Association has issued an initiative to the entire industry and published the prices of phosphate and Ammonium products (conventional common varieties) to be supervised by all sectors of society.
I. Industry initiatives
The association proposes to ensure the supply of ammonium phosphate and stabilize the price of ammonium sulphide throughout the industry. If the following violations are found in phosphate ammonium production enterprises, all sectors of society are welcome to report to the Association:
1. Selling recklessly, deliberately reducing market supply;
2. Raise prices arbitrarily and disrupt the market price order;
3. Co-sell, force sales with other products;
4. The conclusion of a yin-yang contract, or the lack of clarity about the price in the contract, is an act that undermines the fairness of the transaction.
Once the above-mentioned violations are established, the Association will deal with them seriously and will not tolerate them.
II. Modalities of oversight
Oversight telephone: 010 – 82035207 (hours of operation)
Email: zglffgyxh@126.com
III. Announcement of price of phosphorammonium products (10 July 2025)
1. 64% Ammonium Phosphate East China (first station): 3950 yuan / ton
2. 57% ammonium phosphate North China (first stop): 3,600 yuan / ton
3. 55% powder ammonium nitrate Central China (out of factory): 3,350 yuan / ton
4. 58% powder ammonium nitrate East China (factory): 3,650 yuan / ton
5. 60% powder ammonium nitrate southwest region (out of factory): 3,850 yuan / ton
It is hoped that all relevant enterprises will strictly abide by industry norms, jointly safeguard the stable and healthy development of the phosphate mercury market, and provide a solid guarantee for agricultural production.
Morning. Reports of fresh quota allocations in China brought caution to the buy-side of paper y'day, and offers moved lower. Aug AG traded $470 (below India netbacks), Aug/Sep Nola mid-$430s (down $8-$5) and July Nola phys $416 (down $8).
AG
Jul $460//$485
Aug $450//$470 – traded $470
Sep $435//$460
Q4 $390//$420
Brazil
Jul $460//$480
Aug $460/$485
Sep $450//$470
Egypt
July $470//$490
Aug $470///$500
Sep $455//$500
Nola
Phys: JUL traded $416
Paper:
Jul $410//$425
Aug $415//$430 – traded $435
Sep $415//$433 -traded $435
Q4 $380//$400
Q1 $385//$415
UAN Nola
Aug $250//$290
Sep $250//$290
Oct $250//$300
DAP Nola
Physical: Aug traded $740
Jul $715//$725
Sep $730//$740 – traded $735
Q3 $730//$740- traded $730
Q4 $680//$720
Q1 $660//$680
MAP Brazil
Jul $750//$775
Aug $755//$790
AG weekly index = $481, Jul Avg = $463
Cfr Brazil weekly index = $465, Jul Avg = $453.75
Egypt weekly index = $486, Jul Avg =471.75
UAN Nola weekly index = $377.50, Jul Avg = $376.25
DAP Nola weekly index = $735, Jul Avg = $731.25
MAP Brazil weekly index = $755, Jul Avg = $755
Detail
Tariff talks continue to be a large part of the global landscape for grains. Australia does not have a significant direct impact of the tariffs introduced by Donald Trump, but we have the potential to be indirectly impacted, through trade agreements, which could incentivise purchases of US commodities.
We can look back at the past Trump administration and the phase one deal to learn about how this can impact our commodities.
The Phase One trade deal, signed in January 2020, aimed to ease tensions following two years of escalating tariffs between the US and China. The trade war began in 2018 when the Trump administration accused China of engaging in unfair practices, including forced technology transfers and intellectual property theft. In response, the US imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, and China retaliated with its own tariffs, including on major US agricultural exports such as soybeans, corn, and pork. This severely affected American farmers, especially in key electoral states, putting pressure on the White House to find a resolution.
One of its most prominent features was China’s pledge to increase purchases of US goods, particularly agricultural products, massively. Over two years, China committed to purchasing at least US$80 billion worth of US farm goods, effectively giving them preferential treatment over other suppliers. This redirection of trade was driven more by politics than economics, and it displaced competing nations, such as Australia.
In 2020, EP3 analysts identified nine key commodities at risk, five of which ultimately received negative attention from the Chinese government: beef, barley, wine, lobster, and wood.
This indirect trade flow issue may be seen in our trade with Indonesia. Indonesia has reached a new agreement, which will see them double their wheat purchases from the United States.
Indonesia has signed an agreement to double its imports of US wheat to 1 million tonnes annually from 2026 to 2030, valued at US$ 1.25 billion. The deal, led by the Indonesian Flour Mills Association and US Wheat Associates, is part of broader efforts to strengthen trade ties with the US and potentially avoid new tariffs on Indonesian exports.
As one of the world’s largest wheat importers, Indonesia relies entirely on foreign supply, with demand driven by population growth and a robust milling sector. The US currently holds around 9% of Indonesia’s wheat market, and this move is expected to support both domestic food security and US export interests.
Indonesia purchases a significant quantity of wheat from Australia, including, on average, 4.2 million tonnes per year over the past four years, and has purchased at least 15% of our wheat exports on average, excluding our major drought years.
The move to placate the Trump administration will mean that Indonesia will have 1 million tons, which they will have to purchase from the USA, reducing our access to this market.
The concern is that other Asian nations may follow suit, and we end up with a series of trade agreements that prefer US agricultural commodities.
The key point is that while the trade tariffs will not have a major direct impact on Australian agriculture, their indirect impact can be felt just as heavily.
Prediction for July-September: It is expected that the spread between domestic and foreign prices will remain about 1000 yuan / ton in the next three months as a normal. There was pressure to lower domestic urea prices in July, as there were warehouse orders ahead of July 10, There is support at the bottom of urea price. Lack of industrial and agricultural flow around mid-July, urea price is still under pressure to decline. After the end of July and autumn in August, fertilizer farmers need to prepare fertilizer. Downstream compound fertilizer plants enter a new production season. This will support the urea market price, and there will be a small rise. Hefei farmers need to prepare fertilizer. A new round of national commercial reserves in September and fertiliser use in the autumn have supported the urea market. Overall: The overall focus of urea prices will shift from July to August 2025. In 2025, July (rising first, then falling, then stabilizing up) and August recover. In September, the market is prejudged primarily by stability and narrow fluctuations.
-UREA PRICES ARE ON A ROLLER COASTER WITH NEWS OF INCREASED CHINESE EXPORTS PUTTING A DAMPER ON CONTINUED PRICES INCREASES
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES KEEP GOING UP WITH INDIA DAP NOW AT USD 810 PMT CFR UP FROM USD 636 PMT CFR IN MARCH
-POTASH PRICES IN SE ASIA MAY INCREASE DUE TO A LARGE PUPUK INDONESIA TENDER BUT WITH BRAZIL PRICES UNDER PRESSURE DUE TO AFFORDABILITY AND LACK OF CREDIT EXTENDED TO FARMERS
-AMMONIA PRICES APPEAR TO HOLD STEADY TO FIRM WITH BALANCED SUPPLY AND DEMAND OUTLOOK
UREA
India urea tenders always create pre-tender excitement on the volumes they will secure and the price direction prices will take, but most of the time in the past with falling prices post the closure of the tender. Not this time! For a short few hours, it appeared that India would become a premium market with L1 at USD 494 CFR West Coast by Comet and 495 PMT CFR East Coast by Samsung. This would return around USD 480 PMT FOB Middle East. Both offers are close to USD 100 PMT above the June 12th NFL offers which resulted in small deliveries at USD 399 PMT CFR. However, during the time between the closure of the tender on the 7th of July and the next 24 hours, urea prices got off to a frenzy with numbers exceeding USD 500 PMT with Sorfert of Algeria taking the lead at USD 515 PMT FOB for a 7 KT parcel August shipment. This was up USD 15 PMT from earlier that same morning. Egyptian urea sold at USD 507 PMT FOB vs the 1st of July price at USD 455 PMT FOB. To date it is estimated that India’s RCF has secured around 1.2 MMT of urea with a new extension for offers valid until June 15th.
Question is where this is going to lead, and the answer appears to be unanimous – prices will keep going up. India appears to be cleaning up volumes in the Middle East and the Baltics and in SE Asia product availability will be limited with the Petronas SAMUR plant at Sipitang down in July with no announcement on when it will be producing, and BFI’s announced maintenance between July 28th and August 23rd taking away export volumes. Further, there is no new urea tender in Indonesia announced to date. Exports of urea from Indonesia in the period January – May were 507,000 MT, down from 616,000 MT Y/Y. India was the largest destination with 127,000 MT and Australia received 94,000 MT followed by the Philippines at 89,000 MT.
Despite the above optimism for prices to increase, increased Chinese export supplies may throw a bucket of ice-cold water on increased prices. There are strong indications that the Chinese government will allow for a second export quota to be implemented with volumes rumoured to be around the 1 million MT mark with minimum prices set at USD 440 PMT FOB for prilled urea, and USD 445 PMT for granular urea and AdBlue urea. Some gas-based producers have received additional quotas and have been given a larger volume than the first time around. Distributors that committed National Commercial Reserves will be granted tonnes in the second round of allocations which is equivalent to 10% of their reserves – around half of what was granted in the first round. No coal-based urea producers had received a quota allocation at the time of writing and it is said that only those who committed National Commercial Reserves will be granted quotas.
Although Chinese product is prohibited by the Chinese government to take part in India tenders for now, immediately following the yet to be officially announced new export quota, the derivatives market reacted swiftly with marked lower prices with August Middle East at USD 470 PMT FOB and August-September US/NOLA at USD 435 short tons.
In response to the levels available to suppliers in India, offers have increased higher for Brazilian buyers with new prices closer to or at USD 500 PMT CFR although no news of any deals made. The main buying season in Brazil is still a few weeks away but it is expected that imports will be robust. With the news coming from China, it remains to be seen what reaction Brazilian offers will have.
The latest round of tariff news from the White House has reintroduced a 30% import duty on imports from Algeria. The figure is in line with the earlier reciprocal tariff rate initially announced on 2 April. New tariff rates are due to come into effect from 1 August.
Algeria is the most significant of urea suppliers to face a duty over the 10% base line affecting most suppliers.
Algeria supplied 456,000t of urea to the USA in 2024, representing 9% of total urea imports that year. Greater volumes have been imported from Algeria in prior years with 777,000t arriving in 2021 and 589,000t arriving in 2023. Year to May imports were 378,000t from Algeria, covering 8.5% of total imports. Most products supplied from Algeria are sourced on a spot or formula basis. Unlike material from the Middle East, no regular offtake contracts in Algeria for the USA are known.
Other urea suppliers to the USA are also facing higher rates. All SE Asian suppliers are now subject to duties, with Brunei now facing a 25% import duty, joining Malaysia and Indonesia, which are subject to duties of 25% and 32%, respectively. When product moves to the USA from these suppliers, it typically moves to the west coast. In 2024, just 26,000t arrived from Brunei, with 77,000t from Malaysia and 27,000t from Indonesia. News is awaited regarding confirmation of tariff rates for Nigeria, a member of BRICS, as well as more significant suppliers from the Middle East. As before, Russian material is the only product currently not subject to import duties.
The next test for urea prices will be if Brazil starts buying big on the heels of the India tender – then prices will remain bullish.
PHOSPHATES
Increases in processed phosphate prices appear to have no end in sight – every week prices are going up with a clear margin. This mainly on the back of limited availability from China plus Ethiopia. EABC, which typically imported more than 1 Mt/year NPS from Morocco in recent years, pivoted from NPS to DAP and launched multiple tenders over the past several months. The importer is understood to have booked more than 1 Mt DAP for arrival this year, in addition to a 2024 Q4 cargo of around 55,000 t from China.
India is in dire need of DAP and prices have shot up from USD 636 PMT CFR in May to latest sale rumoured to be at USD 810 PMT CFR. However, if the JPMC sale reported below is an indication, DAP prices in India are marching towards USD 850 PMT CFR.
JPMC is understood to have sold 45,000-50,000 t DAP to a trader for end-July/early-August loading in Jordan at $814/t FOB, according to multiple sources. The cargo, said to be for onward sale to a buyer in India, would indicate a delivered price around the mid-$830s/t CFR. JPMC was not immediately available to confirm the sale. DAP export prices from Jordan were last week assessed at $754-756/t FOB, with delivered prices to India at $795-802/t CFR.
MAP prices in Brazil have taken a breather at USD 760 PMT CFR on the back of increased concerns of affordability and lack of credit for farmers. Product substitutions are taking place towards NPK, SSP, TSP – but with increased consumption of the substitute products – their prices are also going up!
The outlook for processed phosphate prices remains bullish at least for the next couple of months with the prospect of some correction coming in the 3rd Q.
POTASH
Potash prices remained mostly unchanged outside Southeast Asia amid subdued demand, as Pupuk Indonesia floated its key tender for delivery from August to December. The Southeast Asian MOP market was in focus this week as Pupuk Indonesia floated a new tender for 246,000 t of standard MOP and 8,000 t of granular MOP. Early initial offers were rumoured between $410-420/t CFR for standard MOP and $440-450/t CFR for the granular grade. However, interest in granular MOP remains subdued, and prices have yet to be fully confirmed. Meanwhile, the broader Southeast Asian market saw limited activity, with standard MOP prices steady at $350-375/t CFR. Granular MOP prices firmed, rising to an average of around $387.5/t CFR as buyers and sellers await further clarity from the tender outcome.
Potash prices in Brazil held steady at $360–370/t CFR amid subdued market activity and limited liquidity. Buyers remained cautious, with only around 10% of soybean potash needs still uncovered and little urgency to finalise new deals. Corn-related demand remains sidelined due to weak margins and credit constraints, keeping overall spot interest low.
AMMONIA
Ammonia prices for the most part held steady-to-firm this week, with sentiment on both sides of the Suez shaped largely by ongoing or forthcoming supply shortages at key export hubs. Whilst no fresh business was concluded out of Algeria this week, prompt cargoes were again heard on offer at $500/t FOB, although there have thus far been no takers at that price. Delivered prices into NW Europe remain in line with those North African FOBs, and this week broached the $500/t CFR mark, albeit on a notional basis. As usual, spot business continues instead to be carried out on undisclosed terms, with LAT Nitrogen once again moving to acquire another Russian spot parcel from EuroChem this week, whilst several other cargoes were delivered to or remained headed to the region following earlier spot arrangements. It remains to be seen how much of an impact explosions on – and reported sinking of – a EuroChem vessel docked in Ust Luga have on July-August loadings from the Russian port, though if the other two vessels in its fleet are unable to lift volumes from the terminal going forward then the supplier could be prompted to enter the spot market to cover both its downstream requirements in Belgium and potential spot customer requirements in France and Turkey. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, naval authorities have warned against maritime imports of ammonia, owing to the threat posed by ongoing Russian missile and drone attacks on port infrastructure.
Prices should remain stable-to-firm heading into 2H July, with the supply-demand balance unlikely to loosen.
Stein Chingen Haugan
Managing Director
fertiMetrics pte ltd
Mobile / Whats App: +65 8328 7681 – Singapore
Email: stein@fertimetrics.com
Skype: steinhaugan1955
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www.fertimetrics.com
Council Member World Agriculture Forum
The second batch of export quotas is more than 1.5 million tons:
(1) 4% of the production capacity of the air head enterprise%
(2) 10% of the gas reserves of gas storage enterprises%
(3) 2% of the output of the last unallocated production enterprise%
The specific situation is being implemented.
Thursday, 10 July 2025 (Acerto)
Urea
Nigeria : Dangote has issued a fresh tender closing tomorrow, 11 July at 16:00hrs local time (16:00hrs British Summer Time), for the sale of two cargoes of 30,000t granular urea each for 1H August shipment.
Last week, the Nigerian producer sold 30,000t of granular for end-July shipment in the mid-high $430s/t FOB Lekki.
Thursday, 10 July 2025 (Acerto)
Urea
India: Around 1.3 million t of urea have now been confirmed by bidders in RCF’s 7 July import tender based on the counteroffers at $495/t CFR East Coast India (ECI) and at $494/t CFR West Coast India (WCI), according to India-based sources.
Letter of Intents (LoIs) are expected to be issued today for the acceptances submitted by today’s deadline at 12:00hrs India Standard Time (IST).
A new deadline for further confirmations has been set for Tuesday, 15 July, at 12:00hrs IST, or 07:30hrs British Summer Time (BST).
Morning. Higher phys sales in N.Africa & AG (>$500fob) brought further support to Urea paper; Aug Brazil traded back to $490cfr, bids in Egypt moved up, but grain prices limiting a run in Nola. On Phos, Q3 DAP traded $728 (+$5 from Mon).
AG
Jul $465//$485
Aug $480//$490
Sep $460//$485
Brazil
Jul $465//$485
Aug $485/$490 – traded $490s
Sep $475//$487
Egypt
July $470//$495
Aug $490///$507
Sep $490//$507
Nola
Phys: JUL traded $430; SEP $445
Paper:
Jul $425//$435 – traded $430 in 1k
Aug $440//$445 – traded $440
Sep $440//$445 -traded $443
Q4 $395//$420
Q1 $395//$425
UAN Nola
Aug $250//$290
Sep $250//$290
Oct $250//$300
DAP Nola
Jul $715//$725
Sep $710//$720
Q3 $725//$733 – traded $728
Q4 $680//$715
Q1 $660//$680
MAP Brazil
Jul $750//$775
Aug $770//$790
Matty take note of Tmap at end of- market weak
China Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Report (2025-07-10)*
Phosphate Chemicals:
Yesterday, mainstream phosphoric acid market prices remained steady. Yellow phosphorus enterprises maintained firm quotations with strong market bullish sentiment. For thermal phosphoric acid, driven by cost factors, early low-price orders decreased, and some enterprises adjusted quotations upward with improved production enthusiasm. For wet-process phosphoric acid, production capacity is ramping up in some regions with continuous slight supply increases. Enterprises face no significant inventory pressure, and prices remain stable in the short term.
Phosphate rock mainstream prices remained stable, with most mines maintaining low inventory levels. Recently, downstream major manufacturers have been actively purchasing, with limited factory inventories and slightly tight shipments. Reference price for 25% high-magnesium phosphate rock in Hubei region is 850-854 yuan/ton, with actual transactions negotiated case by case.
Sulfur:
Yesterday, domestic port spot market continued its upward trend, with price range reference at 2,305-2,310 yuan/ton, mainstream reference price up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Trading companies showed increased buying inquiries and strengthened market entry willingness, injecting vitality into the market. Although industry conferences during the period somewhat diverted market attention, increased trader market entry effectively offset this impact, with port atmosphere notably warmer than before. Domestic resources mainly operated steadily, with solid sulfur prices in Northeast China narrowly adjusted down by around 10 yuan/ton. Attention on today’s sales tender results from a major refinery for guidance.
Sulfuric Acid:
Yesterday, domestic sulfuric acid market saw local adjustments. Tangshan, Hebei region showed smooth sales flow, with low inventory supporting price increases of 20 yuan/ton. Handan and Xingtai regions maintained low operating rates, but previously shut enterprises plan to resume production, combined with external source supplements, increasing market supply expectations. In Henan market, downstream self-owned sulfur acid units and Sanmenxia main acid plant production facilities that underwent short-term maintenance in early periods will resume production this week, combined with synchronized output increases from main acid plants in Shanxi region, somewhat alleviating regional supply tension and maintaining wait-and-see trends short-term. Currently, Henan region 98% smelting acid ex-factory transaction prices are around 560-630 yuan/ton. Hebei region 98% mineral acid ex-factory prices are 700-840 yuan/ton.
Urea:
Yesterday, domestic urea market showed acceptable local trading, with urea factory quotations in main production and sales regions rising slightly by 10-20 yuan/ton. Factory orders increased appropriately, and quotations will temporarily remain firm. Current market sentiment is largely influenced by export news, with limited market fluctuation range before export policies are determined.
Synthetic Ammonia:
Yesterday, synthetic ammonia market mainstream prices remained stable with mixed gains and losses in local regions. Northern markets showed recovery after continuous weakness in earlier periods, while southern markets maintained weak operating conditions. The overall market presents a dual-weak supply-demand pattern, with ammonia plants generally making flexible minor price adjustments based on their own shipment conditions. Short-term synthetic ammonia market is expected to maintain weak-stable conditions.
Ammonium Chloride:
Yesterday, ammonium chloride market mainstream remained temporarily stable, with most enterprises executing previous pending orders. Current shipments are stable with slightly declining inventory. Downstream manufacturers continue moderate low-level restocking, with limited short-term demand release. Therefore, ammonium chloride market is likely to maintain stable operation in coming days.
Potash Fertilizer:
Yesterday, domestic potassium chloride market prices were further raised, with some varieties showing significant price increases. However, marketable circulating sources remain tight, with current market focus on new policies from domestic manufacturers. Potassium sulfate manufacturers showed limited high-price sales, with some factory units reducing production or shutting down for maintenance.
Phosphate Fertilizer:
Yesterday, domestic monoammonium phosphate market maintained stable operation, with Central China region 55-grade powder ex-factory prices maintaining 3,380-3,400 yuan/ton, with actual transactions mainly through negotiation. Current raw material sulfur prices continue rising with strong cost support, combined with manufacturers’ sufficient pending orders and downstream inquiry follow-up, maintaining firm manufacturer sentiment. Short-term market is expected to show consolidation trends.
Yesterday, domestic diammonium phosphate market maintained stable operation, with Hubei region 64% ex-factory prices maintaining 3,800-3,850 yuan/ton, with actual orders through negotiation. Market trading performance was light, downstream maintained small-scale as-needed restocking, with strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, continuing consolidation trends short-term.
Compound Fertilizer:
Yesterday, domestic compound fertilizer market showed narrow consolidation. Recent continuous upstream raw material price increases drove compound fertilizer costs higher. Based on this, enterprises priced cautiously, currently focusing on payment collection, with some new prices awaiting cost stabilization. Short-term compound fertilizer continues consolidation.
Industrial Monoammonium:*
Yesterday, industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate market showed weak-stable consolidation with no price fluctuations. Domestic 73% industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate mainstream market average reference price is 6,230 yuan/ton, subject to actual negotiation. Market demand is weak with most market participants holding bearish attitudes. Current enterprises maintain stable operations, executing order phases. Short-term industrial ammonium market operates weakly, with future market requiring attention to enterprise operations and downstream demand conditions.
Wednesday, 09 July 2025 (Acerto)
Urea
Egypt: Mopco has sold 5,000t of granular urea at $507/t FOB Damietta for 2H July loading for a nearby market, marking a marginal increase of $2/t on previous July granular business at $505/t FOB Abu Qir.
August
An August cargo of granular urea has been sold at $505/t FOB Middle East for August shipment.
This follows the sale yesterday by Qatar Energy of 25,000-45,000 t for 2H August shipment in the $470s/t FOB which is now understood to be around $472-473/t FOB Mesaieed.
Whilst escalating, the price has yet to reach the $525/t FOB paid by Ameropa for an August cargo before the ceasefire took place between Iran and Israel.
This email is intended for fertiMetrics pte ltd stein@fertimetrics.com.
Profercy Nitrogen Report
Urea
The confirmation deadline in the latest RCF India tender has yet to pass. The state agency is understood to have 500,000t in hand against an ambitious stated target of 2m. tonnes for shipment by 22 August.
With the tender offering improved returns relative to those in other markets, and levels well above achievable fob prices last week, suppliers are unsurprisingly optimistic. Offers have been raised significantly, or pulled, in all other markets while many participants in the tender assess options.
Elsewhere, reports are circulating in the market that one Middle East producer has placed granular product for August at a premium to Indian tender netbacks.
India: The confirmation deadline has yet to pass in the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers (RCF) tender for shipments by 22 August. Ahead of this, confirmations have already been received for 500,000t, basis informed reports. A full breakdown is not yet available with the tender still open.
Yesterday, RCF issued counters at $494pt cfr west coast and $495pt cfr east coast with the confirmation deadline set for 12 noon IST tomorrow (10 July).
Some regular suppliers have confirmed awards, including those able to supply from the Middle East, the Baltic and Nigeria.
Ameropa has been linked with confirmations for up to 140,000t with ETG linked to 100,000t. Indorama has confirmed 90,000t, presumably basis shipment from Nigeria.
This is in addition to the 135,000t and 35,000t automatically booked from Samsung and Comet Trading, respectively.
Many others are assessing opportunities in other markets, awaiting the response from buyers in Latin America, SE Asia and Oceania.
Under the prior National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) tender, just one cargo has been nominated thus far, basis shipment from Oman.
Middle East: Discussions are ongoing regarding availability for India under the RCF tender. The tender offered returns of $480pt fob or above basis the west coast offer levels, up $30pt or more on achievable levels just over a week ago.
A producer has since been linked with the sale of an August shipment at a far higher level, up to $505pt fob, basis informed market reports. Further details and confirmation is awaited with the business understood to have been concluded shortly after price bids were opened in India.
Separately, Qatar Energy closed a tender yesterday for 25-45,000t of granular urea for end-August shipment. The tender closed prior to price bids being opened in India. Highest bids were reported in the high-$470s pt fob with one cargo reportedly sold. The laycan available is understood to not be viable for shipment to India under the RCF tender.
SE Asia: Ahead of tomorrow’s confirmation deadline, at least two to three cargoes of granular urea are expected to be committed to India from Indonesia by traders with positions, while shipments from Malaysia have not been ruled out.
Implied east coast netbacks after freight and costs are either side of $470pt fob, a level that has not been achievable to date in nearby or further afield markets for large volumes. Netbacks are also $9-19pt above last levels achieved via sales tenders for July.
On this basis, and with one to two cargoes understood to be destined for Australia in July, reportedly including one via Aditya Birla Group, Indonesian granular urea appears committed for July. Pupuk Holdings has yet to offer August shipments with some expecting a tender in the second half of July.
Separately, availability in the region will be impacted by turnarounds in July and August. Several market reports advise that Petronas will undertake a 20-day turnaround on the SAMUR plant in Sipitang this month. The producer has not confirmed reports as yet.
The plant has a nameplate capacity of 1.2m. tonnes/year of granular urea and is supported by a 740,000t/year ammonia unit that provides feedstock, as well as the occasional ammonia export cargo.
As reported previously, Brunei Fertilizer Industries previously announced via social media that a plant shutdown for maintenance will take place from 28 July with plant start-up planned for 23 August. Normal production is scheduled to resume from 1 September.
The BFI plant has a nameplate capacity of up to 1.37m. tonnes of urea.
Baltic: Suppliers are assessing potential commitments into India after cfr prices and fob netbacks significantly surpassed pre-tender expectations. Netbacks of $445-450pt fob are well above recent returns from other markets for both prills and granular urea.
Many are now closely monitoring other cfr markets, especially Brazil, to see if there is a reaction. Some are hesitant to place granular tonnes into India and risk missing out on a rally in other markets.
For prilled urea, the situation is clearer with other markets not able to compete with India in terms of volume. As such, most producers are expected to earmark the bulk of their prills for India. Only those with minimal output of prills such as Acron are expected to skip Indian business.
As is usually the case, Uralchem/Togliatti is expected to be the single largest supplier with as many as four cargoes or 200,000t of prills, although some reports indicate that such a volume could prove challenging owing primarily to logistical constraints.
Another 100-150,000t of prills are possible via several other producers. Each of the comparatively smaller producers will be able to commit around 20-40,000t each at most. As noted previously, most producers have been undertaking sequential turnarounds on their prilled and granular urea lines with these scheduled to continue into July and August.
Latin America: In response to the levels available to suppliers in India, offers across the region have moved higher. Brazilian buyers have been facing indications in the $490-500pt cfr range from some suppliers, although no major response has been noted from buyers thus far.
Conversely, there have been reports of firm inquiries for full cargoes circulating in both Argentina and Chile. In the former, offers were put in the high-$400s pt cfr yesterday, up from last done business late last week down to $470pt cfr. Demand had been noted close to offer levels.
An inquiry for a part-cargo for Chile for August shipment was heard circulating yesterday with offers put up to the $480s pt cfr.
Amsul
USA: In line with earlier expectations, Interoceanic (IOC) increased its offer levels late yesterday afternoon by $10ps ton to $310ps ton fob Nola. Further to yesterday’s report, Nutrien’s offer level for granular urea was at $360ps ton and not at the earlier stated levels.
Trade Data
Ukraine: Urea imports for January-June were 395,000t, up from 316,000t in January-June 2024. Over half of the total came from Azerbaijan, with 232,000t, followed by Turkmenistan with 84,000t and Egypt with 46,000t. In June, 50,000t of urea were imported, with nearly all of this from Azerbaijan
Morning. Higher than anticipated L1s in RCF tender ($494cfr WC, $495cfr EC), caused urea paper to firm up y'day, before selling resistance met – Aug Brazil traded to $490fcr, then eased $15 by COB. Q3 Nola months traded $423-$450 range.
AG
Jul $460//$480
Aug $470//$485
Sep $435//$470
Brazil
Jul $460//$475
Aug $470//$480 – traded $485, $490, $475
Sep $435//$470
Egypt
July $465//$485
Aug $465///$480
Sep $440//$480
Nola
Phys: Jul traded $434, $427, $425
Paper:
Jul $425//$435 – traded $423,$433, $430
Aug $438//$445 – traded $440, $445, $443
Sep $440//$450 -traded $435, $450
Q4 $395//$420
Q1 $395//$425
UAN Nola
Aug $250//$290
Sep $250//$290
Oct $250//$300
DAP Nola
Jul $715//$725
Sep $710//$720
Q3 $722//$730
Q4 $660//$690
Q1 $650//$670
MAP Brazil
Jul $750//$775
Aug $755//$790