*china Chemical Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Brief 2025-8-7
❤ Sulfur: Yesterday, the domestic port spot market prices rose slightly, with a reference price range of 2,380-2,385 yuan/ton, and the mainstream reference price increased by 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The sulfur electronic platform first broke the previous stalemate, rising to around 2,400 yuan/ton. In the spot market, several end-users actively entered for purchases, creating an active trading atmosphere, with firm quotations driving prices upward. Domestic resources remained stable overall, with Shandong region continuing to see price increases due to obvious supply gaps, with spot resource auction prices referenced at 2,513-2,550 yuan/ton. Watch today’s domestic refinery sales tender developments.
❤ Urea: Yesterday, the domestic urea market first rose then fell. Futures initially rose due to positive export news, but prices retreated after the news settled. Spot urea factories maintained relatively firm quotations due to recent order accumulation, while downstream buyers became cautious about chasing higher prices, leading to temporary market consolidation and wait-and-see sentiment.
❤ Synthetic Ammonia: Yesterday, the synthetic ammonia market stabilized at low levels, with high-end prices experiencing correction. Northern market trading atmosphere improved, while southern market supply-demand dynamics remained weak with continuous new lows. Expected trend: southern decline, northern moderation.
❤ Ammonium Chloride: Yesterday, the domestic ammonium chloride market maintained stable trading. Downstream compound fertilizer companies continued just-in-time restocking, traders made moderate low-level inquiries, and ammonium chloride companies mainly executed pending orders. Overall market sentiment remained cautious with little change in supply-demand fundamentals, expecting short-term stable operation.
❤ Ammonium Sulfate: Yesterday, the domestic ammonium sulfate market saw slight increases with stable actual negotiations. Continued rises in international urea prices still provided psychological support to the market. However, current domestic supply remains abundant with low terminal market inquiry sentiment, expecting short-term market volatility to continue.
❤ Melamine: Yesterday, domestic melamine continued its slight upward trend, but overall downstream follow-up was limited. Melamine manufacturers flexibly adjusted prices based on their individual situations. Market positive factors remain limited, expecting short-term melamine market to operate with stable fluctuations.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizer: Yesterday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market maintained stable trends, with Hubei 55% powder factory prices around 3,430 yuan/ton, some quotations higher, with actual negotiations being primary. Downstream compound fertilizer industry capacity utilization is gradually improving with continued just-in-time demand, but resistance to high prices remains within acceptable purchasing ranges. Costs remain elevated, pending orders provide support, demand remains cautious, maintaining firm wait-and-see stance short-term. Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate market operated stably, with companies continuing to execute pending orders mainly, no significant changes in factory prices, continued low market trading atmosphere, downstream maintaining minimal as-needed purchases, traders mostly operating cautiously, expecting continued narrow-range consolidation short-term.
❤ Potash Fertilizer: Recently, overall supply of domestic potash fertilizer market sources has been relatively limited, port arrivals insufficient, market prices continue dual-track parallel situation, but transactions at high price levels remain limited. Domestic potassium sulfate manufacturers maintain relatively low overall operating rates, but factories have certain inventory levels for normal order acceptance, with varying prices.
❤ Compound Fertilizer:* Yesterday, the domestic compound fertilizer market saw narrow consolidation. Entering August, some companies’ promotional policies narrowed, promoting upward movement in some blend trading centers, but due to limited new order transactions, mainly promoting previous pending order shipments, compound fertilizer prices remained stable. Additionally, autumn fertilizer source distribution has been slow, restraining distributor restocking speed, with compound fertilizers maintaining consolidation short-term.
@Roy Moore – AQ Asia this will leave a 250kt hole in the market
Hi Stein,
Please forgive the generic nature of the communication below, but as this is one of many emails I am sending this afternoon, I think you’ll understand.
I’m emailing to provide an update regarding our urea manufacturing plant in Kapuni, Taranaki. As you may know, our Kapuni site relies on reliable and affordable gas to operate, and our current gas supply agreement expires at the end of September this year. We have been working hard to secure a new, affordable, and reliable gas supply agreement, however, to date, we have not been successful. Without a new arrangement we will be unable to keep the plant operational.
As you are no doubt aware, gas supply is a challenge for many businesses in New Zealand at the moment with declining supply and increasing prices, factors which are beyond our control. We’re optimistic we’ll be able to secure a short-term supply and are continuing to work hard on this.
At the same time, we’re also being pragmatic and starting to plan for a short-term shutdown of the site should we need to at some point.
If you have any other questions about this, please get in touch.
While unfortunate, this is a situation we have been preparing for this for some time. The market is changing all the time, and we’re considering lots of different scenarios and we’re fortunate our business is in a strong position.
I’ll keep you updated as things progress.
LONDON (ICIS)—Looks like Nigeria sold a granular urea cargo for India at $500/tonne FOB.
Hi Phil
Sulphur update for you:
CHINA
– No new deals
INDIA
-PPL tender closed for 50KT September arrival
INDONESIA
– QMB looking for 50KT
– Lygend looking for 50KT
MIDDLE EAST
– Posted prices at $259-265 FOB
AMERICAS
– Galvani tender closed for 25-30KT, 2H September arrival to Arautu. Result unknown
Wednesday, 06 August 2025 ( _Acerto_ )
Urea
Egypt : Mopco has sold a cargo of 45,000t of granular urea to a trader for India at $497.60/t FOB Damietta for end-August loading.
India: Indian Potash Limited (IPL) has received confirmations for over 2m. tonnes of urea in the latest tender for shipments to 22 September. Regional reports point to confirmations totalling 2.4-2.6m. tonnes, a notable advance on the 1.6-1.7m. tonnes confirmed by close of business yesterday.
However, reports advise that the state agency has for now capped the intended purchase at 2m. tonnes, in line with the target specified in earlier tender documents.
There have been reports that some participants looking to confirm additional volumes were unable to do so this morning. The tender is now expected to be finalised today.
A precise breakdown of confirmations has yet to emerge, but these are expected to be spread equally across each coast.
As before, all product has been confirmed at $530-532pt cfr, subject to coast.
Further news is awaited.
The U.S. dollar rose on Tuesday, but remained within sight of Friday's lows, with the market still consolidating after a weak jobs report that boosted bets of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month.
Investors also focused on President Donald Trump's nominations to the Federal Reserve Board, including his choice for commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
"Where we are now is essentially settling after the (payrolls) data and you have a Fed that is … not in a rush to cut and not really seeing any signs of inflation, or maybe just a little bit of inflation," said Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structured products, North America, at Moneycorp in New Jersey.
"So we're basically in this purgatory between now and the CPI (consumer price index) print next week. And the dollar is consolidating … waiting for that data."
Wall Street economists expect the underlying CPI for July to have edged up to 0.3% and 3.0% on a monthly and year-on-year basis, respectively, according to a Reuters poll.
Apart from economic data, the market is also keeping an eye on the changing of the guard at the Fed, which could transform it into a more dovish central bank, in line with what Trump wants.
Trump on Tuesday said he would announce decisions soon on a short-term replacement for Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, who resigned last Friday, including his pick for the next Fed chair. He ruled out U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as a contender to replace current chief Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026.
Bessent wanted to remain in his current job, Trump said, adding that the White House is looking at four candidates to replace Powell.
"You can make the argument that a Kugler replacement is dovish for rates, and in turn, means a weaker U.S. dollar going forward," Moneycorp's Epstein noted.
In addition to Kugler's exit, Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer on Friday as well after data showed weaker-than-expected employment growth in July and massive downward revisions to the prior two months' job counts. He said on Sunday he would announce a new BLS commissioner within three to four days.
WEAKENING SERVICES SECTOR
Tuesday's data, meanwhile, had little impact on the currency market.
U.S. services sector activity unexpectedly showed a flat outcome in July, with little change in orders and a further softening in employment even as input costs climbed by the most in nearly three years.
The Institute for Supply Management said on Tuesday its non-manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) slipped to 50.1 last month from 50.8 in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI would rise to 51.5.
In afternoon trading, the euro was last flat at against the dollar at $1.1569. That pushed the dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six counterparts with the euro as the biggest component, up 0.2% at 98.81, after touching a one-week low earlier in the session at 98.609.
Amid a soft U.S. jobs report, rate futures are now pricing in a 91% chance of the Fed cutting rates at next month's meeting, compared with 35% a week earlier, according to the CME's FedWatch.
They also indicate 60 basis points (bps) of cuts by end-December and 130 bps in rate declines by October 2026, 30 bps more than the levels seen on Friday before the U.S. jobs data.
Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, expects the Fed to deliver three consecutive 25-bp rate cuts starting in September, with a 50 bp move possible if the next jobs report shows a further rise in unemployment.
In other FX pairs, the dollar rose 0.4% to 147.66 yen , after minutes of a June policy meeting showed a few Bank of Japan board members said the BOJ would consider resuming rate increases if trade frictions de-escalate.
The focus, however, remains on tariff uncertainties, after the latest duties imposed by Trump on imports from dozens of countries last week increased worries about the health of the global economy.
The 15% tariff that European Union goods face when entering the U.S. is all-inclusive, a senior EU official said on Tuesday.
The Swiss franc was slightly lower on the day at 0.8077 per dollar, after dropping 0.5% in the previous session.
Switzerland is looking to make a "more attractive offer" in trade talks with Washington, to avert a 39% U.S. import tariff on Swiss goods that threatens its export-driven economy.
On August 6, 2025, the total inventory of China's urea enterprises stood at 887,600 tons, a decrease of 29,700 tons from the previous week, representing a month-on-month decline of 3.24%. During this cycle, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises saw a slight decrease. Although the domestic demand has weakened, the willingness of downstream customers to purchase at lower prices has gradually increased, and the unexpectedly low price of urea tenders from India has boosted market sentiment. Additionally, some production units have been idled for maintenance, contributing to the decline in inventory levels for certain enterprises. Among the provinces where enterprise inventory increased are Anhui, Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Sichuan, and Chongqing. On the other hand, the provinces with decreasing enterprise inventory levels are Hebei, Henan, Hubei, Liaoning, Qinghai, Shandong, Shanxi, Xinjiang, and Yunnan.
Morning. IPL confirms well over 1m tonnes so far, Egypt phys up at $500, but softer feel to Urea paper y'day after rumours of possible (now confirmed) China-India exports to be allowed. Aug Brazil traded back into $490s, Sep Egypt $490s (in-line), Aug/Sep Nola down $15-$20.
AG
Aug $495//$515
Sep $480//$500
Q4 $440//$480
Cfr Brazil
Aug $485//$505 – traded $492, $495
Sep $475//$495 – traded $485
Oct $470//$490
Egypt
Aug $490//$512
Sep $487//$500 – traded $490s
Oct $470//$495
Nola
Phys: Aug traded $448, $445
Paper:
Aug $450//$465
Sep $445//$460 – traded $445
Oct $445//$457 – traded $450
Nov $425//$440
Q4 $430//$445
Q1 $425//$440
Option: Oct Nola $475 Call traded $11
DAP Nola
Aug $798//$810
Sep $800//$815
Q4 $720//$735
Q1 $675//$695
MAP Brazil
Aug $740//$765
Sep $735//$760
NDRC meeting ends. 200k and 300k are allowed for india export, but not a lot. Price floor raised to 470 for PU and 490 for GU. Nothing about third round of quota.
*China Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Report (2025-08-06)
Phosphate Rock:
The phosphate rock market continues to progress steadily. Due to relatively sufficient raw material inventories at downstream phosphate fertilizer and phosphate chemical enterprises, raw material procurement expectations are insufficient. Some mines are under pressure with shipments, and market sentiment is poor. Reference prices for 25% high-magnesium phosphate rock in Sichuan Mabian area remain between 700-730 yuan/ton, with some blended ore prices being discounted.
Sulfur:
Yesterday, the domestic port spot market prices rose slightly, with reference price range of 2,375-2,380 yuan/ton, and mainstream reference price up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. A major domestic refinery’s sales tender results increased by 14 yuan/ton compared to the previous period, combined with increased activity on the sulfur electronic trading platform, boosting market confidence. However, there are still slight differences in intended price levels between buyers and sellers, with overall transaction news limited. Domestic resources are mainly trending upward, with Puguang-Wanzhou prices raised by 20 yuan/ton to 2,370 yuan/ton, while other regions saw increases ranging from 20-120 yuan/ton. Today’s news flow is temporarily lacking, with spot market expected to fluctuate slightly.
Sulfuric Acid:
Yesterday, the domestic sulfuric acid market showed regional differentiation. In southern Jiangsu, acid plants were supported by export orders and downstream rigid demand, maintaining low inventory levels. Zhenjiang’s major acid plants slightly raised quotations, while some northern Jiangsu sulfur-based acid plants raised prices by 20 yuan/ton today. In Hebei Shijiazhuang and surrounding areas, sulfuric acid operating rates remained low. Previously, some ore-based and sulfur-based acid plants reduced production due to low profit margins, and influenced by declining peripheral prices, some terminals saw increased discount space. The Hunan market was influenced by downstream demand, with acid plants shipping smoothly outbound. Combined with expected maintenance of some facilities in mid-to-late month, tightening supply supported prices, rising 20 yuan/ton today. Currently, 98% sulfur-based acid prices in Jiangsu are 720-770 yuan/ton, and in Hebei 730-850 yuan/ton.
Urea:
Yesterday, some domestic urea enterprises had decent transactions. Based on short-term positive news from export rumors and driven by recent enterprise transactions, domestic urea market remained firm and rising. However, as prices rise, the market needs substantial positive developments, so policy news regarding exports is still awaited.
Synthetic Ammonia:
Yesterday, the synthetic ammonia market maintained a declining trend. Northern regions had decent shipments after price reductions, while southern regions with previously maintenance-affected enterprises still expect recovery. Future adjustments are expected to focus mainly on northern stabilization and southern declines.
Ammonium Chloride:
Yesterday, the domestic ammonium chloride market operated steadily, with ammonium chloride enterprises mainly executing pending shipments. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises restocked based on rigid demand. India’s urea tender saw significant increases, somewhat boosting domestic manufacturers’ sentiment, but without substantial impact on ammonium chloride prices, which remained stable.
Potash Fertilizer:
The domestic potassium chloride market overall showed relatively flat trends, with dual-track pricing still running in parallel. Imported 62% white potassium chloride prices are mostly 3,150-3,450 yuan/ton, with limited transactions at high-end prices. The potassium sulfate market showed no obvious improvement overall, with manufacturers basically continuing previous quotations, but new order transactions remain inactive.
Phosphate Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market remained stable with no obvious price changes. Production enterprises continued executing pre-received orders, with some factories still suspending quotations and limiting order acceptance. Overall downstream demand was moderate, with cautious wait-and-see attitudes, awaiting major enterprises to release orders and pricing.
Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate market maintained consolidation, with enterprise ex-factory prices showing no obvious fluctuation. Hubei region’s 64% ex-factory price maintained 3,800-3,850 yuan/ton, with actual orders under negotiation. The market mainly chose to wait and see, with downstream maintaining only small-volume procurement as needed. Short-term market trends remain stable.
Compound Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the domestic compound fertilizer market continued consolidation. Current raw material prices are stabilizing, providing cost support for compound fertilizers. Medium-scale enterprises are holding prices firm, while some small enterprises are accepting low-price orders, creating obvious market price differences. Currently awaiting downstream autumn season order deliveries, trading activity is gradually increasing, with the compound fertilizer market maintaining consolidation in the short term.
Industrial MAP:*
Yesterday, industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate market prices dropped again. Domestic 73% industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate mainstream market average price reference is around 5,950 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations case-by-case. Market demand remains weak, with only new energy and export demand unable to provide support, limiting actual transactions. Short-term industrial ammonium market prices are adjusting downward, with future market needing attention to enterprise operations and raw material conditions.
Dangote cargo being offered into Brz at $500 cfr
The Jordan Phosphate Mines Company (JPMC) and the Arab Potash Company (APC) on Wednesday signed an agreement to establish an integrated industrial complex for the production of phosphoric acid, purified phosphoric acid, and specialised fertilisers.
The new complex will be built in the Aqaba Special Economic Zone and Al Shediyeh, according to a joint statement carried by the Jordan News Agency, Petra.
The agreement was signed by JPMC Chairman Mohammed Thneibat and APC Chairman Shihadeh Abu Hdeib, along with the companies’ CEOs, Abdul wahab Rawwad and Maen Nsour.
The project reflects a strategic collaboration between Jordan’s mega mining companies and aligns with the Kingdom’s Economic Modernisation Vision, particularly in the chemical, and fertiliser sectors, the statement said.
According to the statement, the complex will focus on value-added manufacturing, with an emphasis on purified phosphoric acid, a key component in speciality phosphate and potash fertilisers, as well as products used in the food, pharmaceutical, and cosmetics industries.
“This initiative represents a strategic transformation that will enhance Jordan’s position as a global producer and exporter of high-value, specialised fertilisers,” the statement said, adding that it exemplifies advanced industrial integration between the two companies.
The shift from exporting raw materials to downstream processing and advanced manufacturing is expected to increase local added value, strengthen Jordan’s industrial base, and boost its presence in regional and global fertiliser markets.
In line with global trends in agriculture and food security, the complex will help diversify Jordan’s industrial exports and improve its competitiveness in international supply chains, according to the statement.
Beyond its economic benefits, the project is also expected to create direct and indirect job opportunities. Training and professional development programmes will be offered for Jordanian engineers and technicians as part of the initiative.
Strait of Hormuz crisis triggers rising EU urea prices in June 2025 – LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities
17 Jul 2025 12:16:39
OPEN IN LSEG WORKSPACE
Urea fertilizers prices in the European Union have risen sharply in mid-June following the Israel-Iran conflict escalation, disrupting deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the main fertilizer shipping routes from the Persian Gulf. The Israel–Iran conflict has had a profound impact on the global nitrogen fertilizer market, as the conflicting sides are critical global fertilizer suppliers. The geopolitical tensions affected the fertilizer production in the neighboring countries, also putting the supply chain sustainability at risk and raising fears of tightening supplies to the EU in the second half of 2025.
FOB Western Europe urea prices have risen by over 35% since the beginning of the year 2025 and reached $410-430 per tonne by the end of June, according to LSEG Agriculture Research monitoring.
As of June 26, 2025, the Profercy World Nitrogen Index surged to 209.18 points and touched the highest level since early 2023. The index jumped by almost 35 points between June 5 and 26, marking the largest two-weeks gain over the year. At the start of 2025, the index was at 168.35 points, indicating it increased by over 24% during the first six months of the year and reflected soaring global prices for nitrogen-based fertilizers, including urea, ammonium nitrate, and ammonium sulphate, driven by supply disruptions in the Middle East and North Africa. RIC: PFYWWNITIDXUKW (Profercy World Nitrogen Index).
The price spike was triggered by production halts in Iran in mid-June amid fears of the targeted Israel’s strikes on its industrial infrastructure, gas supply interruptions in Egypt, and widespread uncertainty ahead of a ceasefire announcement in late June. Iran suspended operations at all seven of its ammonia and urea plants due to security concerns, while Egypt was forced to shut down fertilizer production as Israel suspended deliveries from the Leviathan offshore gas field.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most strategically important maritime corridors in the world, with over 20% of global oil shipments and approximately 33% of global fertilizer exports, including 32% of urea and 20% of phosphate fertilizers like Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) and Diammonium Phosphate (DAP), passing through it from key producers such as Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, according to the market sources. This narrow passage, just about 40 km wide, serves the Gulf countries as the only gateway to international markets. Any disruptions to shipping through the Strait—whether due to geopolitical tensions, the threat of naval mines, or rising insurance premiums—immediately affect global prices by complicating exports and driving up logistics costs. In early July 2025, Houthi attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea intensified, supporting lingering concerns over supply chain disruptions and driving up freight rates.
The EU urea market is especially vulnerable to such disruptions, as a considerable segment of its imports traditionally comes from the Middle East. EU imports of urea from Middle Eastern countries exceeded 1.6 million tonnes in the first half of 2025—up nearly 30% from the same period in 2024, according to data from the European Commission.
Total Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2022 1,206,520 142,146 157,448 268,991 280,280 190,594 167,061
2023 1,511,503 359,356 321,224 229,028 184,414 286,524 130,957
2024 1,272,497 239,827 254,891 202,618 205,413 245,453 124,295
2025 1,636,224 356,956 280,531 322,143 284,146 288,273 104,175
Table 1.
EU. Imports of urea fertilizers from the Middle East countries, 2022-2025, in 1,000 tonnes
The Middle East countries include Egypt Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, Lebanon, Israel, Iran* January-June period, data is subject to modification by the source
Source: the European Commission’s data
Iran, a top global exporter of urea responsible for around 10–15% of the global trade, has seen outbound shipments delayed, with insurers and freight forwarders raising risk premiums up amid restricting transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The European producers were also under pressure, as natural gas prices rose again in June 2025 and reached €41.2/MWh on June 23, 18% up from early June, according to the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)’s data. Domestic fertilizer production remained sensitive to the cost swings, and supplies remained tight although several nitrogen plants in the EU resumed operations after winter downtime. RIC: TRNLTTFMc1.
North African producers, particularly Egypt, play a key role in stabilizing the EU supply. However, Egypt’s urea production faced temporary disruptions in late June 2025 due to acute natural gas shortages. Major facilities, including Abu Qir, one of the key nitrogen-based fertilizers producer in the country, including urea, halted operations around June 24, with gradual restarts beginning in early July after gas supplies partially recovered.
"Following the end of hostilities and the implementation of the ceasefire in late June, all fertilizer production plants in Egypt have resumed operations. Although there remains uncertainty regarding current capacity utilization levels, the domestic market continues to be the priority for deliveries — especially with the onset of the peak demand season" one Egypt-based fertilizer trader said.
FOB-Egypt granular urea prices surged by 24%, reaching $492.50 per tonne between June 12 and 20, the hot phase of the Israel-Iran confrontation, while heightened demand and lingering concerns over escalating geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz kept supporting the quotes later. RIC: UREA-GRMEA-P1
Egypt remains a strategic supplier of nitrogen fertilizers to the European Union, including urea and ammonium nitrate. In the first six months of 2025 alone, Egypt’s fertilizer exports to the EU amounted to 1.7 million tonnes of nitrogen fertilizers, up 32% from the same period in 2024, accounting for approximately 31% of the bloc’s total nitrogen fertilizer imports. Italy, Spain, France, and Romania were the key consumers within the EU. The EU imported over EUR 675,000 worth of nitrogen fertilizers from Egypt, a staggering 50% increase compared to the same period last year, according to the European Commission’s data.
Egypt’s role in stabilizing the EU fertilizer market has risen this year, especially in times of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, given its geographic proximity, competitive gas-based production coupled with a diversified export portfolio. Egypt with its production capacities exceeding 19.0 million tonnes per year is expected to remain among the top three fertilizer suppliers to Europe, along with Russia and Algeria.
The continued instability in the Gulf region, along with reduced deliveries from Russia and Belarus, could push fertilizer prices up further in the third quarter, driving food production costs in Europe higher into 2026. In that context, diversifying fertilizer supplies, including from North Africa (Morocco, Algeria), the Baltics, and potentially from the U.S., could be critical to balance the EU market, ensuring stable supply, and maintaining fertilizer affordability for the European farmers.