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𝗣𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗽𝗵𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁: 𝗦𝘆𝗿𝗶𝗮'𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗖𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗼

Sometimes the strongest market signals aren’t in the headlines — they’re in the numbers and shipping routes. July’s phosphate rock data paints exactly that picture.

𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝘀 & 𝗧𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲𝘀
𝗦𝘆𝗿𝗶𝗮:
Over 200,000t of 29.5–30% P₂O₅ rock sitting in stock at ~$100/t FOB.
21,000t sold to Turkey CFR.

𝗩𝗶𝗲𝘁𝗻𝗮𝗺: Vinachem secured 45,000t Egyptian rock (≥27% P₂O₅) at $87–88/t CFR.

𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗮:
RCF tender for 35,000t high-grade rock (≥35% P₂O₅) saw a $215/t CFR offer (likely Togo).

New tender for two 35,000t shipments (≥29% P₂O₅) for Oct delivery.

𝗟𝗼𝗴𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗰𝘀 & 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗙𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀

𝗥𝗲𝗱 𝗦𝗲𝗮: Yemeni Forces threats against vessels linked to Israel are raising freight risk on Red Sea–India routes.

𝗧𝘂𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘆: Strikes at Mersin & Ceyhan fertilizer plants could ripple into DAP production.

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗢𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸
𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗮: Monsoon-driven demand is poised to lift raw material imports.
𝗕𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗹𝗮𝗱𝗲𝘀𝗵: A private tender for 500,000t DAP & 200,000t TSP could tighten global supply and firm prices.

🌐 Other Key Insights

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗼𝗰𝗰𝗼: Jorf Lasfar exports to India and Brazil continue to climb in 2025, signaling strong long-term supply chains.

𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮: Lower-grade phosphate rock (26–27% P₂O₅) holding steady at $80–85/t CFR.

📦 𝗪𝗲 𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗽𝗵𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗿𝗼𝗰𝗸 (𝟮𝟳–𝟯𝟮% 𝗣𝟮𝗢𝟱) 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗝𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗮𝗻, 𝗘𝗴𝘆𝗽𝘁, 𝗦𝘆𝗿𝗶𝗮, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗣𝗮𝗸𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻, 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗹𝗮𝗯 𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝘂𝗹𝗸 𝗼𝗿 𝗷𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗼 𝗯𝗮𝗴 𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀.
‎

August 10th, Xinjiang Daily
I. PRICE AND PRODUCTION
1. Northern Xinjiang:
Central energy: 1490, price stable
Daily output: 4,200 tons
Jinjiang: 1500, price stable
Daily output: 1,700 tons
UPEC: 1530, price stable
Daily output: 1,700 tons
Yihua: 1470, price stable
Daily output: 1,300 tons
Yan Mining: 1490, price stable
Daily output: 1400 tons
Heart connected: 1490, price stable
Daily output: 1,300 tons
2. Southern Xinjiang:
Destiny: 1650, price stable
Daily output: 1,800 tons
Tata Petrochemical: Downtime
Hua Jin: 1680, price stable
Production: 2,100 tons per day
Jade elephant: 1660, price stable
Daily output: 900 tons
Great River: 1680, price stable
Daily output: 400 tons
Total daily output: 16,800 tons
Note: This price is market quote
II. Internal market conditions in Xinjiang
1. The factory
On the supply side, factories are producing normally, prices are stable today, and some factories continue to implement regional sales policies and execute pre-orders pending. Some factories implemented the fire truck loading plan, and the overall local automobile transportation was normally delivered, and trains were loaded in an orderly manner according to planned notices.
2. Downstream
Traders bought and sold back-to-back, and some brands sold at low prices to fulfill their sales tasks and received unsatisfactory bills. Prices in the internal market in Xinjiang have steadily and steadily declined, and some brands have confused prices, and traders are under pressure to sell and ship well. The seasonal end of the need for fertilizer for farmers in Xinjiang has gradually reduced demand, and the end result is zero-sum carpooling to replenish supplies. In some regions, dealers are buying at low prices for a period of time and reserves for a phase, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is depressed and sales are weak.
3. Market expectations
The short-term market is expected to operate weakly and steadily.

The increased supply of monoammonium phosphate on the international market might indicate that suppliers are looking to start shifting/unloading their products or positions. It is speculated that they are not getting the desired sales at their factories and traders, and are taking preemptive action. The next few weeks will tell us what the suppliers are aiming to get out of their inventory or positions, and ensure that CIQ (China's Entry-Exit Inspection and Quarantine) is in order before the purported deadline of September 15th. After that, there will be traders holding CIQ-compliant goods, but as of now, it doesn't appear to be a bad time to make a purchase. We anticipate that prices will remain stable to firm, with little likelihood of a downward adjustment. A crucial area of focus for monoammonium phosphate is whether sellers might attempt to sell at prices lower than the minimum allowable price. While this appears to have occurred in the urea market, it has not yet happened in the phosphate market. This is something to keep in mind.

Fourth, comprehensive judgment
1. Demand: the summer top dressing in Northeast China is over, and the demand for summer fertilizer replenishment is still there. July and August are the gradual end of agricultural demand.
In recent years, domestic demand has become more and more limited.
2. Supply: With the advent of the off-season, some installations will be overhauled, and the production of new installations will gradually stabilize, and the supply of goods will increase.
It will stabilize at a daily output of more than 195,000 tons.From July to August, new production capacity will be put into operation in Xinjiang and Anhui, and some urea factories in Jincheng area will start at the end of August.
The cycle is 7-12 months of upgrade and overhaul.
3. Cost side: Coal head urea enterprises are in relatively good production and operation conditions against the background of weak coal market.Part of the air head urea
The cost pressure of gas head companies is greater (for example: the gas head in Southwest China is 2.28 yuan/cubic meter, and the cost of 650 cubic meters of natural gas plus 200 yuan).
Electricity bill, the full cash flow cost is 1680-1700 yuan/ton), if the price of urea continues to be low, it does not rule out that some gas head urea companies will provide
Overhaul or reduce production before.
。
The cost of gas consumption in gas head enterprises has not been reduced, and the coal prices of coal head enterprises are basically at the bottom stage.Estimated gas head cost vs. urea price
Generating support, there is still room for the price of urea in the coal head to fall.

Urea market analysis
1. Macro-production demand
Estimated domestic supply and demand from July to September 2025:
month
July
August
September
Total production
6.23 million tons
6.21 million tons
5.95 million tons
Total demand (excluding exports)
5.35 million tons
5.45 million tons
5.42 million tons
June data adjustment: the original estimated output in June was 6.15 million tons, the actual output was 6.13 million tons; the original estimated demand in June was 5.5 million tons, the actual output was 6.13 million tons.
The total international demand is 5.84 million tons (5.49 million tons of domestic trade + 350,000 tons of exports <provisional estimate>).
2. The views of all parties on the market
Nitrogen nitrogen consultation: Everyone is welcome to communicate with us a lot
1. View of urea factory:
The export quota of urea factories has basically been exhausted, and the inventory of territorial legal inspection factories has increased. Some territorial export orders in June will be in July and August.
Gather in Hong Kong one after another.The export volume eased the pressure on factories to increase inventories in the off-season of agricultural demand in July and August.The national urea market is a game of chess, urine in different regions
The prime price difference will shrink.After the export of urea for automobiles is liberalized, the export volume and price can be adjusted.
2. The perspective of compound fertilizer plants:
The weather in July is humid and high temperature, and the urea inventory of the compound plant is at a relatively low level. From mid-July, some compound plants will start autumn one after another.
Ordering meeting of seasonal compound fertilizer.The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant in June was about 31.4%, and the production of autumn fertilizer began to advance one after another in mid-to-late July. The compound fertilizer plant
The operating rate in July and August will gradually increase, and it is expected that the construction of compound fertilizer will increase rapidly at the end of August and the beginning of September, and the autumn fertilizer reserve in some areas will increase.
The polarity will be higher.The production of compound fertilizer in autumn is mainly high-phosphate fertilizer, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer will increase, but the demand for urea is mainly concentrated in agriculture.
Urea needs to be applied directly and exported.
It is expected that compound fertilizer production will start one after another from mid-to-late July, and compound fertilizer production will gradually reach the peak of autumn fertilizer production in August, and resume in September.
The operating rate of the Hefei plant will decline one after another.
3. The point of view of Damao:
The current big trade is very cautious, the grass-roots delivery is not smooth, and their urea stocks are at a low level.Urea prices enter the relatively low price zone
Q, it will be actively stored in batches for storage.Traders are very concerned about the secondary distribution of export quotas in the next stage.
In the first half of 2025, the overall demand for trimeric oxygen glue will decline. July-August is the off-season for production of trimeric oxygen glue. Some trimeric oxygen glue companies will inspect.
repair.In September, the start of construction of trimeric oxygen glue will gradually increase

According to customs data, in July 2025, China exported 5.704 million tons of fertilizers (an increase of 1.414 million tons from the previous month and 2.634 million tons from the same period last year).
Attention should be paid to the export data of urea for July, which will be released by the customs on August 18 and may influence market expectations regarding the supply and demand of urea in August and September.

In June 2025, China exported 4.29 million tons of fertilizers (an increase of 1.15 million tons from the previous month and 1.33 million tons from the same period last year), of which 44.24% were diammonium phosphate, 26.99% were nitrogen-phosphorus dual fertilizers, 20.04% were ammonium sulfate, 13.41% were monoammonium phosphate, and 5.72% were urea.

The Latin America magnesium nitrate market size was estimated at USD 78.3 million in 2018 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.5% over the forecast period. The significant growth in demand for fertilizer in the farming sector and increasing use of explosives in mining industries is expected to drive the demand.

Argentina Magnesium Nitrate Market
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Magnesium nitrate is an odorless, crystalline, and colorless substance, which is primarily used as a catalyst for manufacturing fireworks and petrochemicals. It can be typically prepared by mixing calcium nitrate with magnesium sulfate, which is thereafter filtered to extract the insoluble calcium sulfate. In the explosives industry, it is used as an oxidizing agent to enhance the combustion of other substances used for producing explosives. In the fertilizers industry, magnesium nitrate acts as a source of magnesium ion and the nitrate ion, which stimulate the healthy growth of crops.

Argentina has been one of the crucial markets for explosives due to the growing mining activities in the country. Several companies have been broadening their presence in the country to captivate the untapped potential. Despite the country’s depressed prices of commodities, it is regarded as a mining destination with a multitude of new mining projects in the pipeline.

Latin America is considered as one of the prominent regions in terms of the production and export of crops. The region has witnessed robust growth in the production of crops over the last decade and this trend is expected to continue in the future. Magnesium nitrate is used in the formulation of various fertilizers, as it compensates for the deficiency of the nutrient in a plant. In addition, it contains nitrogen in the form of nitrate, which is the most efficient source of nitrogen for plant growth and yield.

The mining industry in Latin America has been thriving since the past few years and a plethora of metals such as copper, potash, lithium, iron ore, gold, and niobium have been unearthed. With a robust growth opportunity, several companies have made significant investments. In 2017, 305 companies invested a total amount of USD 2.38 billion in exploration activities, particularly in Mexico, Peru, Colombia, and Chile.

Application Insights

Magnesium nitrate is majorly used as an additive which is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.8% from 2019 to 2025. Magnesium nitrate, as an additive, is further utilized in formulating nitric acid, fertilizers, and specialty chemicals. It is also used as a catalyst in the preparation of explosives and other petrochemical products. The demand for magnesium nitrate is majorly fueled by its utilization as a fertilizer in the agriculture-dependent economies in the region.

Nitric acid and fertilizer manufacturing are the major application areas for magnesium nitrate additives. The demand from the agriculture and mining industry is expected to drive the Latin America magnesium nitrate market. The easy availability of raw materials and the low cost of production has facilitated numerous fertilizer manufacturers to set up facilities in Brazil. This is likely to develop new opportunities for the utilization of magnesium nitrate in the region over the coming years.

Latin America magnesium nitrate market
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The utilization of magnesium nitrate as a catalyst is growing rapidly in the petrochemicals and explosives industry. It is majorly used as a viscosity adjuster in the petrochemical industry. The favorable properties coupled with reduced risk of hazards associated with the product is anticipated to fuel its demand over the coming years. However, stringent government laws and regulations related to the use of explosives is likely to restrict product demand in the mining sector.

Country Insights

Mexico emerged as the largest consumer of magnesium nitrate whereas Chile is observed to be the fastest-growing consumer with a CAGR of 4.6% during the forecast period. Rapidly growing mining activities have boosted the overall demand for mining explosives in the country.

Mexico has been reforming their grounds of the energy sector which has reflected a substantial impact on the fertilizers industry. According to the International Association of Fertilizer Industry, companies operational in fertilizer business in the country are facing high cost of manufacturing provided the old infrastructure facilities and age-old technology in extracting raw materials. This has ultimately led to lower country-level production and high dependency on imports. With the advancement in the energy sector, the natural gas industry shall witness investment from regional and foreign multinationals, thereby leading to the introduction of the latest technologies. These advancements are likely to lower production and distribution cost of natural gas, eventually leading to decreased cost of fertilizer production.

Chile is a growing market in terms of explosives industry due to high mining activities supported by the government. Chile and Peru are among the two foreign investment open markets concerning mining operations that are aided by the government to subsequently increase the economic conditions of these countries. Companies such as Enaex which are among the top mining and blasting industries since the past 98 years have been observed to expand their business operations in Chile, which in turn shall pave way for magnesium nitrate demand over the forecast period.

Key Companies & Market Share Insights

The market is highly competitive. The industry comprises prominent and well-established players such as Avantor Performance Materials, Haifa Mexico, Sigma Aldrich, American Elements, Van Iperen International, Yara International, Neochim PLC, AKO Kasei Co. Ltd., Rongyu Chemical Co. Ltd, DowDuPont.

Companies are undertaking several initiatives including frequent mergers, acquisitions, capital expansion, and strategic alliances. In March 2018 Van Iperen International announced a new subsidiary named Van Iperen America, located in Florida to strengthen its position in North as well as Latin America. In 2017, Yara acquired Vale Cubatao Fertilizantes complex, Brazil to strengthen its position in the local market.

Latin America Magnesium Nitrate Report Scope

Report Attribute
Details
Market size value in 2019
USD 83.6 million
Revenue forecast in 2026
USD 113.5 million
Growth Rate
CAGR of 4.9% from 2019 to 2026
Base year for estimation
2018
Historical data
2014 – 2017
Forecast period
2019 – 2026
Quantitative units
Revenue in USD million and CAGR from 2019 to 2026
Report coverage
Revenue forecast, company ranking, competitive landscape, growth factors, and trends
Segments covered
Application, region
Regional scope
Latin America
Country scope
Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru
Key companies profiled
Avantor Performance Materials, Haifa Mexico, Sigma Aldrich, American Elements, Van Iperen International, Yara International, Neochim PLC, AKO Kasei Co. Ltd., and Rongyu Chemical Co. Ltd
Customization scope
Free report customization (equivalent up to 8 analysts working days) with purchase. Addition or alteration to country, regional & segment scope.
Pricing and purchase options
Avail customized purchase options to meet your exact research needs. Explore purchase options

Segments covered in the report

This report forecasts revenue growth at a regional & country level and provides an analysis of the industry trends in each of the sub-segments from 2014 to 2026. For the purpose of this study, Grand View Research, Inc. has segmented the report on the basis of application and country:

Application Outlook (Volume, Kilotons; Revenue, USD Million; 2014 – 2026)

Additives

Nitric Acid

Specialty Chemicals

Fertilizers

Others

Catalysts

Petrochemicals

Pyrotechnics/Explosives

Country Outlook (Volume, Kilotons; Revenue, USD Million; 2014 – 2026)

Brazil

Argentina

Colombia

Chile

Mexico

Peru

Ecuador
‎

The Indian tender has set the market trend this week with participants seeking to sell 2.6M tons, a larger volume the 2M ton initially targeted. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the market as companies try to weigh producer availability vs demand in particular for Brazils Safrinha; in fact most derivative market activity has been evident in Brazil this week where prices have dropped by $10–15 for September since the start of the week.

Aug AG $490/510
Sep AG $470/500
Oct AG $465/500

Aug Egypt $475/500
Sep Egypt $475/495
Oct Egypt $475/490

Aug Brazil $470/480
Sep Brazil $465/475
Oct Brazil $455/470

Aug AS Brazil $190/$200
Sep AS Brazil $185/$205
Oct AS Brazil $185/$210

Aug SSP Brazil $220/$249
Sep SSP Brazil $220/$249

Aug MAP Brazil $735/$760
Sep MAP Brazil $735/$760
Oct MAP Brazil $725/$770

Stateside: Urea Nola
Aug Indic. $435/455
Sept Indic. $440/450
Oct Indic. $435/445

DAP Nola
Aug Indic. $800/810
Sep Indic. $795/810
Oct Indic. $775/800

UAN
Aug Indic. $330/370
Sep Indic. $320/370
Oct Indic. $300/350
‎

Morning. As trade await final details from IPL tender, Int'l paper saw Sep Brazil repeat trade $470 late y'day. In Nola, Sep phys traded $435, as paper drifted lower with activity on Q4 months into Q1.

AG
Aug $485//$515
Sep $470//$485
Q4 $440//$470

Cfr Brazil
Aug $470//$488
Sep $465//$475 – traded $470s
Oct $460//$468

Egypt
Aug $485//$512
Sep $470//$493
Oct $460//$485

Nola
Phys: Sep traded $435
Paper:
Aug $428//$440
Sep $430//$440
Oct $425//$437
Nov $417//$425 – traded $423
Dec $415//$417 – traded $415
Q4 $415//$425
Q1 $410//$420 – traded $420 (500st)

Options: Q4 $460 Call traded $11

DAP Nola
Aug $798//$810
Sep $800//$815
Q4 $730//$780
Q1 $675//$710

MAP Brazil
Aug $740//$758
Sep $735//$760
‎

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures edged up from a four-month trough on Thursday as low prices stirred demand for the oilseed.

U.S. soybeans are now some of the cheapest in the world, sparking an uptick in global demand.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported total weekly net export sales of soybeans in the week ended July 31 at 1,012,800 metric tons.
That bolstered expectations that the recent price drop, coupled with weakness in the dollar, has made U.S. crops attractive for export.
Fund short covering also helped fuel price recovery, traders and analysts said.
Brazil's soybean area is set to expand in 2025/26 at its slowest pace in almost two decades, agribusiness consultancy Patria AgroNegocios said on Thursday, estimating the planted area in the season at 48.13 million hectares (118.9 million acres).
CBOT November soybeans settled 9-1/4 cents higher to $9.93-3/4 per bushel.
CBOT September soymeal rose $3.50 to settle at $276.10 per short ton.
CBOT September soyoil ended 0.22 cent lower to 53.5 cents per pound.

*China Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Report 2025-8-8

❤ Sulfur: Yesterday, the domestic port spot market experienced significant price surges, with prices ranging 2,420-2,425 yuan/ton, representing a 40 yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. Market sentiment was highly bullish, driving terminal users and traders from cautious observation to high-price transactions, with the market gradually leading higher prices. Domestic resources remained relatively stable, with Shandong region seeing production increases due to insufficient terminal storage, causing supply-demand mismatches that continued to drive prices upward. Shandong liquid sulfur was quoted at 2,430-2,560 yuan/ton. Today’s focus is on spot market transaction conditions and Indonesian tender results.

❤ Urea: Yesterday, the domestic urea market showed overall stagnation with increasing deadlock atmosphere. Market concerns gradually emerged, considering China’s participation in tenders remains uncertain. Based on theoretical analysis, industry players maintained relatively rational expectations for future markets. However, export news continues to ferment, and short-term market sentiment effects are expected to be significant, with holders still emotionally driven to sell.

❤ Synthetic Ammonia: Yesterday’s synthetic ammonia market saw northern regions rise while southern regions fell. Northern areas rebounded in price after earlier low-price sales improved; southern regions continued declining, mainly due to previously maintained units gradually resuming operations and weakening demand. Looking ahead, synthetic ammonia market regionalization is evident.

❤ Ammonium Chloride: Yesterday, the domestic ammonium chloride market remained mostly stable. Most ammonium chloride companies executed previous pending shipments, with some temporarily not accepting new orders. Although downstream compound fertilizer companies’ operating rates improved, fertilizer demand period delays meant continued just-in-time purchasing of ammonium chloride, showing no significant demand improvement. Short-term ammonium chloride market continues stable.

❤ Ammonium Sulfate: Yesterday, the domestic ammonium sulfate market followed with low-level gains, with actual negotiations remaining stable. High international urea prices still provide psychological support to the market. However, current domestic supply is abundant and terminal market inquiry sentiment is low, suggesting short-term market deadlock may continue, not ruling out potential local declines.

❤ Melamine: Yesterday, domestic melamine continued rising with supply appearing somewhat tight, and most manufacturers limiting order acceptance. However, demand remained relatively flat, though with pre-payment order support, prices may maintain stable operation.

❤ Phosphate Fertilizer: Yesterday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market maintained stable operation, with Hubei 55% powder ex-factory at around 3,420-3,430 yuan/ton, with actual transactions maintaining negotiation levels. Raw material sulfur continued rising, increasing cost pressure. With sufficient pending orders, prices remained firm, though plant operating loads continued increasing. Downstream buyers remained cautious about chasing higher prices, maintaining just-in-time purchases, suggesting short-term continuation of stable consolidation trends. Yesterday, domestic diammonium phosphate market trends continued consolidation, with costs under continuous pressure. Company ex-factory prices showed no significant changes, with Hubei 64% ex-factory prices maintaining 3,800-3,850 yuan/ton through actual negotiations. Downstream operators remained generally cautious with strong wait-and-see sentiment, maintaining stable consolidation in the short term.

❤ Potash Fertilizer: Domestic potassium chloride market supply remains persistently tight. Excluding price-stabilizing guaranteed supply sources, market circulation volume is insufficient, causing some tight high-end market prices to show small upward adjustments, though high-price transactions remain limited. Potassium sulfate manufacturers are not actively shipping, with most maintaining certain inventory levels.

❤ Compound Fertilizer:* Yesterday, the domestic compound fertilizer market remained largely stable with minor movements. Upstream raw materials showed stable narrow-range adjustments, continuing to provide market stabilization support. Company quotations remained stable, but market shipment volume increased slowly with limited new order follow-through, showing some flexible adjustment phenomena in certain areas. Short-term compound fertilizer market is expected to maintain main stability with local minor fluctuations.

-INDIA UREA TENDER RESULTED IN 2 MILLION MT BUYING WITH ANOTHER 600 KT POSSIBLE AT WORLD'S BEST PRICES

-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES ARE TAKING A BREATHER AS AFFORDABILITY AND LACK OF CREDIT IN BRAZIL TAKING ITS TOLL

-POTASH PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE IN THE COMING MONTHS

-AMMONIA PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STABLE TO STRONG

UREA

Over the past week or so all eyes were on the IPL urea tender closing on August 4th – and what eyes did we get! Contrary to the past few tenders, India was exceptionally successful to a point where they had to reject interest. From 23 companies a total of in excess of 4 million MT of urea was offered and it now appears IPL has secured confirmation for 2.6 million MT from a pre-tender requirement of 2 million MT. It is expected that India will only take the 2 million MT with 1 million MT for each coast UNLESS the government’s Department of Fertilizers agree to a higher volume. Several companies missed out on the deadline timing for confirmation on the volume and price acceptance with the volume already having reached 2 million MT by the time the paperwork was submitted!

L1 prices were USD 530 PMT and USD 532 PMT, east coast and west coast, respectively.

This price attracted interest from NDRC of China and it now appears that 300,000 MT of urea will be released for the India tender. Nine companies have been endorsed to sell the total volume with a floor price of granular/prilled urea if exported to India set at USD 490 PMT FOB. In the meantime, the export price floors to other global markets remains at USD 440 PMT FOB for prilled urea and USD 445 PMT FOB for granular.

Iranian producers are offering at USD 425-430 PMT FOB and it is not inconceivable that Iran sourced urea will be represented in the India tender.

Following on from the IPL tender latest trade in the AG is heard at USD 510 PMT FOB with a SIUCI of Oman trade reported as high as USD 514 PMT FOB for September shipment. Egyptian urea changed hands for a smaller cargo at USD 500 PMT FOB and a 45 KT parcel at USD 497.60 PMT FOB. A Nigerian cargo is heard being sold at USD 500 PMT FOB. Further, BFI of Brunei is reported to have sold 30,000 MT at USD 506 PMT FOB. In addition, CaMau of Vietnam has reportedly sold 40,000 MT granular urea at USD 507 PMT FOB for September shipment and it appears that this parcel is intended for India. Producers Habac and Ninh Binh of Vietnam have combined a prilled urea cargo which also is reported to be destined for India.

Ethiopia imports of urea for January-July were 616,000, the largest amount on record, up from 502,000 Y/Y.

One issue today which brought sadness to my eyes was the announcement by Ballance Agri Nutrients in New Zealand about the imminent possibility of the closing of the 240 KT per year Kapuni granular urea plant at Taranaki. Twenty-five years ago, I was on the board of directors of Ballance for six years and even then, there were discussions around the possibility of closing Kapuni due to increased gas prices. So, it has taken 25 years for gas prices to reach a level where continued production is no longer viable. I am hoping that there will be a solution to this most unfortunate situation. Good luck Ballance Agri Nutrients in finding reasonably priced gas to secure future operations!

On that note, the big question now will be what the future will bring on prices with 600,000 MT “unsold unplaced” urea to India, to sustain the India prices into other markets. However, if the Department of Fertilizers agrees to increase from 2 million MT to 2.6 million MT the issue will be mute – otherwise, the 600,000 MT could put a temporary halt to continued price increases. As indicated in my last week’s report, India tender results are no guarantor for future pricing of urea. Always – supply and demand decide!

PHOSPHATES

DAP/MAP prices remained mostly stable amid limited spot market activity, though the key CFR assessments for DAP to India and MAP to Brazil both inched down as buyer resistance to higher levels set in. India's DAP spot price was assessed at $810/t CFR flat this week, down from $810-814/t CFR over the previous three weeks as importers continued to resist higher prices for now, with nothing above $810/t done since mid-July while one deal was indicated slightly lower. Meanwhile, spot prices for MAP sales to Brazil were assessed down this week at $750-755/t CFR after declining to $755-760/t two weeks ago following three consecutive weeks at $760/t flat with limited liquidity. MAP offers to Brazil are reported at $750pt cfr without any buying interest and prior indications of offers at $755pt cfr have yet to be repeated so far this market week. Fresh MAP deals are once again lacking amid very limited demand and fears amongst some importers and distributors over potential price declines. Any fresh business would likely have to be priced below $750pt cfr to be accepted by buyers.

Brazil’s P2O5 fertiliser imports reached 1.80Mt in January-May, a 34% rise from 1.34Mt in the same five months of 2024, according to the latest ANDA data. Indications suggest that Jan-August P2O5 imports will remain up as much as 20% yr-on-yr. Total P2O5 imports by Brazil for the full year of 2024 had dipped 1.6% yr-on-yr to 4.77Mt, though this volume was still 23% higher than the ten-year average annual P2O5 imports of 3.87Mt.

DAP activity for India remains slow with reports of a possible 30,000t DAP deal from a trader with Turkish DAP to Narmada BioChem again at $810pt cfr.
India DAP prices have now been largely flat for the last month after India’s DoF stepped into the market in mid-July and attempted to set a ceiling to the market at roughly $810pt cfr. Previous attempts by India to halt price increases failed to take hold on low stocks and the continued ‘disadvantage support’ being provided on top of the MRP/NBS rates.
Last week, Ma’aden sold another 60,000t DAP to IPL at $810pt cfr for August loading. IPL also purchased another roughly 50,000t DAP cargo from Australia at a well higher price but as usual this was duty free so not included in the India DAP price assessment.

The lowest DAP offers in Bangladesh’s 5 August tender for 500,000t DAP came from a local trader ex-China/Russia with 40,000t DAP at $874pt cfr.

The lowest TSP offers in Bangladesh’s 5 August tender for 200,000t TSP came from local traders ex-Morocco for two lots of 27,500t at $725pt cfr.

A price ceiling may now be in sight as buyer resistance to high prices grows across the globe. Still, some further upside is expected over the coming weeks before slight declines begin in Q3 as supply improves and buyers become relatively more comfortable. Scarce supply is likely to limit any price downside when the market direction reverses.

POTASH

Muted demand outside Asia kept most benchmark potash prices steady this week, while producers shifted focus to key markets, primarily China and India, as they approach the autumn and Kharif peak seasons, respectively. Southeast Asian MOP prices rose by $10/t to $360–383/t CFR this week, driven by the finalisation of the Pupuk Indonesia tender and stronger offers in the Bangladesh tender. Last week, Pupuk Indonesia awarded its MOP tender at $383/t CFR to five overseas suppliers, slightly above previous market levels, providing price support. Fresh deals have been reported at $380–390/t CFR, but volumes remain unclear, so these were excluded from the price index. The upcoming tender season, typically in August and September, is expected to offer greater clarity on market direction.

Brazilian MOP imports increased marginally in July compared with the same month last year as final requirements for the upcoming soybean application season to arrive. Imports have been fairly consistent this year and most purchases for the soybean season were secured by the end of June, but buyers have largely focused on phosphates products in the latter half of the second quarter.

Deliveries of MOP to Brazil totalled 1.7mn t in July, up by 2pc from 1.67mn t a year earlier, according to data by transparency platform GTT. It is also the highest monthly total of imports so far this year.

The marginal increase on the year in July has meant that total imports for January-July were flat at 8.6mn t from a year earlier.

Imports from Russia (including products from Belarus) accounted for more than half of all deliveries at 4.5mn t, which was up by 47pc on the year. Again, this can be attributed to the likelihood that the Russia data now include Belarusian deliveries.

This was followed by Canada, which accounted for 3.1mn t, down by 2pc on the year. Arrivals from Israel were up by 7pc on the year to 654,306t, and those from Germany declined by 12pc on the year to 253,395t.

The outlook for potash prices is bearish and prices are expected to decline in the coming months as second-half demand slows, driven by an unfavourable corn crop outlook, with MOP prices likely having peaked.

AMMONIA

Spot ammonia availability west of the Suez Canal tightened further this week with a rumoured outage in Algeria and reduced production in Egypt amid ongoing natural-gas supply issues. Globally, prices were mostly little changed since last week’s $70/t surge in the Tampa contract and traders expect spot supply to remain very tight for August and September. The Tampa benchmark is now at its highest since mid-February and has climbed $117/t since the end of May and the imposition of President Trump's import tariffs. The recent hike at Tampa has been driven in part by tightness in the US Gulf, with Mosaic’s 500,000 t/year Faustina plant facing issues earlier on in July, prompting the phosphate major to acquire several import cargoes – both spot and under contract – throughout the month. In the US Gulf, there still remains no sign of GCA starting commercial operations.

Prices should remain stable to firm with upside risk due to production difficulties in north Africa

BULGARIA: for a small 3 kt Gran urea cargo this morning we get offers / indications well below 520 cfr duty free / duty paid.
Please for you personally only!

They have one vessel due in NZ in 2 weeks, the other in late September (arrival NZ) Fudao

Morning. Although IPL look set to buy at least 2m tonnes (maybe more?), news of China's approval to export to India initially brought selling pressure on Urea paper y'day, before some support returned at scale-back levels.

AG
Aug $485//$515
Sep $465//$485
Q4 $440//$480

Cfr Brazil
Aug $470//$485
Sep $465//$480 – traded $480
Oct $450//$475

Egypt
Aug $485//$512
Sep $475//$493
Oct $465//$485

Nola
Phys: Aug traded $435, $440. Sep $445 (Buyers), $442, $430
Paper:
Aug $430//$440– Traded $435
Sep $440//$444 – traded $435, $445s
Oct $435//$445
Nov $425//$435
Q4 $415//$435
Q1 $410//$430

Options: Sep Nola $450 Call traded $14. Oct, Nov, Dec $450 Call $16.

DAP Nola
Aug $798//$810
Sep $800//$815
Q4 $720//$735
Q1 $675//$695

MAP Brazil
Aug $740//$765
Sep $735//$760