China Fertilizer Industry Chain Early Participation 2025-8-13
❤Urea: Yesterday, some domestic low-end quoted urea companies had acceptable transactions. Based on the support of local industrial demand, downstream factory trade followed up on dips. Under the support of some companies, the offer was slightly increased. In the short term, the price may temporarily stop falling and stabilize, and we still need to pay attention to the downstream follow-up situation.
❤Synthetic ammonia: Yesterday, the synthetic ammonia market was weak and declining.The supply and demand atmosphere in the market is general, downstream procurement is cautious, and when the supply in the region is sufficient, ammonia companies will reduce prices and ship mainly.With no significant improvement in supply and demand, it is expected that ammonia market prices will still have room for decline.
❤ammonium chloride: Yesterday, the ammonium chloride market maintained stability and continued to market. Ammonium chloride companies were on the sidelines. They were mainly waiting for issuance in the early stage of implementation. Compound fertilizer companies replenished their stocks in moderation, and just needed them. Traders operated cautiously.Fertilizer sinking in autumn is slow, and the demand for ammonium chloride is difficult to change, and it will continue to operate steadily in the short term.
❤Ammonium sulfate: Yesterday, the domestic ammonium sulfate market was narrowly adjusted to wait and see, and high-level shipments were mediocre.At present, the export prices of particles are mediocre, and the enthusiasm of distributors to purchase is poor, which has led to pressure on the shipments of raw material factories.It is expected that the ammonium sulfate market will fall from its high level in the short term.
❤Melamine: Domestic melamine continued to rise yesterday. The positive support on the supply side is still there, but the support on the demand and raw materials is lacking. It is expected that the pending orders of various companies will be acceptable in the short term. The market will be strong in the short term, but the increase may be relatively limited.
❤Phosphate fertilizer: Yesterday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market continued to consolidate.Although the price of raw sulfur continues to rise, the overall performance of downstream demand is general, and the new prices of major manufacturers have been introduced, the prices have remained stable, and the sentiment may be affected, and the market will be stagnant in the short term.
Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate market trend was stable, and 64% of the ex-factory prices in Hubei remained at 3800-3850 yuan/ton, and the actual orders were negotiated.The trading atmosphere continued to be sluggish, and the downstream was mainly replenished in small batches on demand. The market's wait-and-see sentiment remained unabated, and the market continued to consolidate in the short term.
❤Potash fertilizer: Yesterday, the domestic potash fertilizer market trend was relatively stable. The supply of imported potassium chloride was tight, the market circulation was limited, and the price continued to be high. The price of imported 62% white potassium was mostly 3150-3550 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction was negotiated.The operating rate of the potassium sulfate factory's equipment is low, and the transaction of new orders is not positive.
❤Compound fertilizer: Yesterday, the domestic potash fertilizer market trend was relatively stable. The supply of imported potassium chloride was tight, the market circulation was limited, and the price continued to be high. The price of imported 62% white potassium was mostly 3150-3550 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction was negotiated.The operating rate of the potassium sulfate factory's equipment is low, and the transaction of new orders is not positive.
As of August 13, 2025, the total inventory of China's urea enterprises stood at 957,400 tons, an increase of 69,800 tons from the previous week, representing a month-over-month increase of 7.86%. During this cycle, the inventory levels of domestic urea enterprises have been rising, driven by sluggish domestic demand, weakened agricultural demand, and tepid industrial demand. While some enterprises engaged in port-based exports have managed to maintain a balance between production and sales, others have been negatively impacted by the downturn in domestic demand, resulting in reduced shipments and rising inventory levels. Among the provinces where enterprise inventory has increased are Anhui, Henan, Hubei, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, and Yunnan. On the other hand, provinces with decreasing enterprise inventory include Hebei, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Liaoning, Qinghai, and Sichuan.
Morning. With IPL set to book 2.075m tonnes, Int'l paper saw Sep Brazil values slip under $470cfr y'day, before finding bid support low/mid-$460s. In Nola, Sep Urea traded $435-$442, but Bids on Q4 months retreated after USDA report/heavy slump in corn mkts.
AG
Aug $490//$518
Sep $475//$495
Q4 $445//$480
Cfr Brazil
Aug $468//$490
Sep $465//$475 – traded $468
Oct $455//$467
Egypt
Aug $490//$512
Sep $470//$485
Oct $460//$485
Nola
Paper:
Aug $428//$440
Sep $430//$445 – traded $435-$442
Oct $420//$445
Nov $410//$425
Dec $415//$423– traded $417, $420, $425, $423
Q4 $410//$425
Q1 $410//$430 – (Jan – Feb) traded $435
UAN Nola
Aug $305//$345
Sep $305//$330
Oct $305//$340
DAP Nola
Aug $800//$825
Sep $775//$800
Oct $755//770 – traded $770
Q4 $740//$770
Q1 $675//$710
MAP Brazil
Aug $735//$755
Sep $700//$740
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures rose for a second straight session on Tuesday as the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its U.S. harvest outlook after noting that farmers planted fewer acres of the oilseed than previously thought.
The USDA pegged the average U.S. soybean yield at a record 53.6 bushels per acre, compared to its July estimate for 52.5 bpa and analysts' expectations for 52.9 bushels per acre.
The agency still lowered its production estimate to 4.292 billion bushels from 4.335 billion in July. It said farmers planted 80.9 million acres of soybeans this spring, compared to its July estimate for 83.4 million acres.
The USDA lowered its 2024/25 ending stocks outlook to 330 million bushels, down 20 million from a month earlier. Its 2025/26 ending stocks view fell by 20 million bushels to 290 million, a three-year low.
Soybean futures rallied following early-session losses stemming from a steep drop in canola futures prices after China announced anti-dumping duties on Canadian imports.
CBOT November soybeans settled 21-1/2 cents higher at $10.32-3/4 per bushel after reaching the highest level since July 23. The contract broke through overhead technical chart resistance at its 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages.
CBOT September soymeal rose 60 cents to settle at $281.40 per short ton.
CBOT September soyoil gained 0.05 cent to close at 53.24 cents per pound.
Today's rundown:
The prices of urea manufacturers in the mainstream regions have been dropping, and today there were deals at a low price of 1660 to 1670 yuan; the market might stabilize around this price for a while, and there might be a slight price increase in the short term.
From the fundamental perspective of the market, downstream buyers are mostly purchasing goods in moderation while prices are low; the daily output of urea is still at a high level, and although exports are ongoing, they are not making much of a difference; thus, for the market to continue improving, there needs to be more substantial positive news, either in terms of new developments in exports or driven by changes in macro-market sentiment.
Based on the orders currently held by manufacturers, the situation might last until the weekend, but whether the trend will continue into next week will depend on whether new orders are secured tomorrow and the day after tomorrow; thus, we need to keep a close eye on the market in the coming two days and see if there are any additional factors that could support the current trend.
*Longzhong Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Report 2025-8-12
❤Phosphate Rock: Current phosphate rock prices remain stable overall. Supported by downstream phosphate fertilizer industry operating rates maintaining above 60%, terminal demand remains stable. However, in southern regions, due to high-capacity operation of monoammonium phosphate, demand for low-grade ore is strong; while high-grade ore is constrained by terminal purchasing pace, with relatively subdued market trading activity.
❤Urea: Recent urea prices have declined again, with mainstream low-end ex-factory prices at 1,660-1,680 yuan/ton. Apart from increased low-end transactions, most reactions are temporarily moderate. After two days of market stalemate, without emotional or news support, prices may continue to decline.
❤Synthetic Ammonia: Yesterday’s synthetic ammonia market showed regional operation with mixed ups and downs. Northern markets saw slight price exploration in some areas, but overall momentum was insufficient with downstream purchasing resistance; southern markets saw continuous decline in new orders as previously maintained enterprises resumed operation, with strong wait-and-see sentiment. Synthetic ammonia market is expected to continue weakening.
❤Ammonium Chloride: Yesterday’s domestic ammonium chloride market remained temporarily stable, with cautious trader inquiries and mostly wait-and-see attitude. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises continued just-in-time restocking, some ammonium chloride facilities delayed restart time, and ammonium chloride enterprises showed strong price-supporting intentions. Short-term supply-demand changes minimal, market operating stably.
❤Ammonium Sulfate: Yesterday’s domestic ammonium sulfate market was stable with slight decline, due to poor purchasing enthusiasm from terminal demand, overall market transaction atmosphere weakened with heavy wait-and-see sentiment. Considering shipping pressure, short-term market expected to mainly fluctuate downward.
❤Melamine: Yesterday’s domestic melamine was stable with upward exploration. Supply side had certain positive factors, but demand side was relatively flat, and raw materials lacked obvious support. Terminal mentality remained cautious, short-term market operating with stable fluctuation, overall upward range limited.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: Yesterday’s domestic monoammonium phosphate market showed no obvious movement, with Hubei 55% powder ex-factory around 3,420-3,430 yuan/ton, transactions maintained through actual negotiation. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises still resist high-priced raw materials, mainly just-need purchasing. Monoammonium phosphate factories’ pending shipments continue to provide support. Additionally, sulfur has continued rising recently, cost pressure continues increasing, maintaining stable operation in the short term. Yesterday’s domestic diammonium phosphate market had limited fluctuation, with no obvious changes in enterprise ex-factory prices. Hubei region 64% ex-factory price maintained at 3,800-3,850 yuan/ton through actual order negotiation. Market sentiment mainly wait-and-see, transaction atmosphere relatively light, downstream only maintaining just-need purchasing, market continuing oscillating consolidation in short term.
❤Potash Fertilizer: Domestic potassium chloride manufacturers continue previous quotations, with 60% benchmark product ex-factory price still at 2,800 yuan/ton plus freight, official prices unchanged, mainly shipping to downstream compound fertilizer factories. Potassium sulfate market trend relatively weak, with most factories continuing production suspension and maintenance due to lack of raw materials.
❤Compound Fertilizer*: Yesterday’s domestic compound fertilizer market mainly consolidated. Urea oscillated with narrow adjustment, phosphate and potash fertilizers remained firm, continuing to provide stable market support; compound fertilizer enterprises mostly promoted autumn fertilizer shipments, with low intention for price policy adjustment. Short-term compound fertilizer market expected to have limited fluctuation.
India S&D has them running out of urea in Dec – owing to swapping out DAP, early rains, expect new tender mid/end August
One of the IPL bidders says: LoIs for 2M tons or possibly 2.07M tons should be issued within 2-3 hours
Morning. Largely quiet start to week prior to discovery of final IPL volumes to be booked (expected today). Int'l paper saw Sep Brazil trade $470, Aug/Sep Nola phys $435. Mkts framed:
AG
Aug $490//$518
Sep $475//$495
Q4 $445//$480
Cfr Brazil
Aug $470//$488
Sep $465//$475 -traded $470
Oct $455//$465
Egypt
Aug $490//$512
Sep $470//$490
Oct $460//$485
Nola
Phys: Aug traded $435. Sep $435
Paper:
Aug $428//$440
Sep $425//$445
Oct $420//$445
Nov $410//$425
Dec $410//$425
Q4 $410//$425
Q1 $405//$425
UAN Nola
Aug $305//$345
Sep $305//$330
Oct $305//$340
DAP Nola
Aug $800//$825
Sep $795//$810
Oct $750//780
Q4 $725//$775
Q1 $675//$710
MAP Brazil
Aug $735//$755
Sep $720//$745
We can spare a voloum of 2~3kt of TG urea price. Price for will be 365 usd/ mt FCA basis
Gd
Iranian urea producers announced $440/mt as official price for this week on Saturday.
The highest bid in lordegan tender was $428/mt but the producers didn’t award and issued counteroffer to bidders for improve their bids till Wednesday 13:00 pm IRST.
Dear Sir/Madam,
Pardis Petrochemical Company (PPC) is pleased to submit a proposal for a 30-60 KMT ± 10% in bulk Urea cargo with the below terms :
Product: Granular Urea-Fertilizer in Bulk.
Quantity: 30-60 KMT ± 10% MT in bulk Urea cargo buyer’s option(In one lot) .
Shipment Window: Full of August, 2025 .(To be mutually agreed)
Destination Market: To be declared by the buyer.
Quality: As per the attached PPC's specification
Delivery term: FOB
Load Port: Assaluyeh, Iran
PRICE: Minimum price is 440 USD/MT FIXED PRICE FOB Assaluyeh, The result of the auction will be awarded to the highest price
Payments: 20% of total cargo value to be remitted within 5 working days after account nomination. Balance 80% shall be settled before the vessel’s berthing at Assaluyeh, Iran.
Currency of Payment: AED/USD To be mutually agreed.
Exchange Rate: 3.6725 For USD/AED.
Laycan: To be mutually agreed in a 3-days spread window.
Loading Rate: 8000 MT PWWD TFHEX EIU.
Please send your confirmation till 16:00 Hrs IRST (UTC +3:30 hours) on Tuesday, 12 August, 2025.
Morning. With India set to take significant length out of the mkt, total volume to be booked still unclear. China's newly approved role added a new dimension to sentiment last week, as paper trended lower. On Fri, Int'l paper saw Sep/Oct trade mid-$470s and $460 respectively, Sep Egypt $480. Mkts framed week close:
AG
Aug $490//$515
_[Aug traded $500-$510 last week]_
Sep $475//$485
Q4 $445//$480
Cfr Brazil
Aug $470//$490
_[Aug traded 500-$492 range l/w]_
Sep $475//$479 – traded $475 Fri
_[Sep traded $485-$470 range l/w]_
Oct $457//$470 – traded $460 Fri
Egypt
Aug $490//$512
Sep $475//$490 – traded $480 Fri
_[Sep traded $490-$480 range l/w]_
Oct $460//$485
Nola
Paper:
Aug $428//$440
Sep $430//$450
Oct $425//$445
Nov $415//$427
Dec $410//$420 – traded $415 Fri
Q4 $415//$425
Q1 $410//$425
DAP Nola
Aug $798//$815
Sep $800//$820
Oct $750//780
Q4 $725//$775
Q1 $675//$710
MAP Brazil
Aug $740//$758
Sep $735//$760
SUNVIN RESEARCH
11 July 2025
MPOB Data and Analysis
MPOB Malaysia palm oil performance July 2025 vs June 2025 (in T)
Production 1,812,417 (+7.09%) vs 1,692,370
Imports 61,039 (-12.82%) vs 70,015
Exports 1,309,059 (+3.82%) vs 1,260,930
Domestic Consumption 482,679 (+6.63%) vs 452,654
End stocks 2,113,278 (+4.02%) vs 2,031,560
CPO stocks 1,020,780 (-2.02%) vs 1,041,781
PPO stocks 1,092,498 (+10.38%) vs 989,779
PKO Stocks 320,805 (+11.97%) vs 286,520
Note: Prior to the release of July 2025 palm oil SND, MPOB has revised its estimates for Malaysian palm oil May Production to 1,692,370 T from 1,692,310 T, Exports to 1,260,930 t from 1,259,354 T and End Stocks to 2,031,560 T from 2,030,580 T from which CPO to 1,041,781 T from 1,041,740 T and PPO to 989,779 T from 988,840 T estimated initially. Due to the revision in Production, Exports and End Stocks, the domestic consumption number for July month also revised to 452,654 T from 455,150 T.
MPOB July 2025 SND Preview vs MPOB June 2025 (in mlnT)
SUNVIN
Production 1.862 (+10%) vs 1.692
Imports 75k (+7.12%) vs 70k
Exports 1.3 (+3.23%) vs 1.259
Domestic use 350k (-23%) vs 455k
End Stocks 2.317 (+14.11%) vs 2.031
BLOOMBERG
Production 1.83 (+8.3%)
Imports 50k
Exports 1.3 (+3.2%)
Domestic use 250-450k
End Stocks 2.23 (+10%)
LSEG (Reuters)
Production 1.83 (+8%)
Imports 60k
Exports 1.3 (+3.2%)
Domestic use 368k
End Stocks 2.25 (+10.8%)
Malaysia palm oil production estimates July 2025 vs June 2025
MPOA
Peninsular Malaysia +17.18%
East Malaysia -2.58%
Sabah -3.13%
Sarawak -0.69%
Full Malaysia 9.01%
UOB Kay Hian
Sabah -2% to -6%
Sarawak +0% to +4%
Peninsular Malaysia +12% to +16%
Full Malaysia +5% to +9%.
SPPOMA South Peninsular Mills Palm Oil performance July vs June
Production +7.07%
FFB Yields +7.19%
OER -0.02%
Malaysia palm oil export July vs June (in T)
ITS 1,289,727 (-31,187 or -2.36%) vs 1,320,914
AmSpec 1,163,216 (-123,245 or -9.58%) vs 1,286,461
SGS 896,362 (-305,403 or -25.4%) vs 1,201,765
Malaysia palm oil exports 1-10 Aug vs July (in T)
ITS 482,576 (+91,221 or +23.31%) vs 391,355
SPPOMA South Peninsular mills palm oil performance 1-5 Aug vs July
Production -17.27%
Yields -19.32%
OER +0.39%
ANALYSIS
MPOB data shows Malaysian palm oil stocks rising moderately by 4.02% to 2.113 mlnt. Incidentally, CPO stocks fell by 2% to 1.02 mlnT and processed palm oil stocks rose by 10.38% to 1.092 mlnT. The production increased by 7% to 1.812 mlnT in compared to the MPOA estimates of +9%. While, Exports were up by 3.82% to 1.309 mlnt. The key factor is the domestic consumption which shows 482,67\9 T, at the highest for any given month since the available data with use from 2014 and sharply higher by 60% from 282K a 5yr avg domestic consumption for July month. The 5yr avg of Malaysian palm oil July production and July End Stocks is 1.672 mlnT and 1.691 mlnT. It shows, post corona developments at the demand and supply front for palm oil now. The end stocks at 2.11 mlnt is no way a burdensome stock for palm oil, especially in time when Aug export is showing good improvement over July, which production is not performing within expectations. Additionally, the Indonesian palm oil production is estimated to be weaker than Malaysia and hence we feel the MPOB data is moderately bullish for palm oil market.
Regards
SUNVIN RESEARCH
Demand xls has mkp and sop also