[Urea] On August 5, the daily production of the urea industry reached 190,900 tons, an increase of 0.050,000 tons from the previous working day; compared to the same period last year, it increased by 16,000 tons; the current operational rate is 82.46%, up by 3.16% from 79.30% last year.
Morning. IPL price discovery brought firmer tone to Urea paper y'day. Nearby Int'l mkts largely stayed supported, but in Nola, Aug/Sep met sell resistance after initial gains, as values returned nearer Friday's $460 levels, w/ activity also on Q4 into Q1.
AG
Aug $505//$523 – traded $500, $510
Sep $485//$510
Q4 $440//$480
Cfr Brazil
Aug $495//$525 – traded $495 (1.5k), $500
Sep $485//$515
Oct $470//$510
Egypt
Aug $495//$515
Sep $486//$510 – traded $490 (2k)
Oct $470//$500
Nola
Phys: Sep traded $470
Paper:
Aug $455//$465– traded $470, $465, $460
Sep $460//$465 – traded $475, $470, $465
Oct $437//$450 – traded $445
Nov $425//$440 – traded $438(1k)
Q4 $430//$445 – traded $440
Q1 $425//$440 – traded $440, $435
DAP Nola
Aug $798//$810
Sep $800//$815
Q4 $720//$735
Q1 $675//$695
MAP Brazil
Aug $740//$765
Sep $735//$760
*China Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Brief 2025-8-5
Phosphate Rock: The phosphate rock market will continue to maintain a supply-demand balance in the coming period, with mainstream mining companies keeping their quotes firm. The market should pay close attention to the implementation of second-phase export quota policies. Phosphate rock prices are expected to maintain a stable pattern in the short term.
Urea: Indian tender prices were higher than expected, boosting domestic urea market sentiment. Yesterday, most mainstream enterprises had good new order transactions, and today’s quotes will be raised to varying degrees. We’ll watch how the market follows up after the price increases.
Synthetic Ammonia: Yesterday, the synthetic ammonia market showed an overall declining trend. Limited positive factors in northern and southern markets, with downstream factories cautious about procurement. Ammonia plants are experiencing inventory accumulation, and as the market center shifts lower, ammonia plants are mainly focused on shipments. The synthetic ammonia market is expected to continue weakening.
Ammonium Chloride: Yesterday, the domestic ammonium chloride market remained stable overall. Downstream compound fertilizer companies are restocking based on immediate needs, traders are making exploratory inquiries, ammonium chloride companies are reluctant to sell at low prices, and some companies have temporarily suspended order-taking. The ammonium chloride market is operating in a stalemate in the short term.
Ammonium Sulfate: Yesterday, the domestic ammonium sulfate market remained in consolidation with lackluster transaction atmosphere. With Indian tender prices at high levels, market wait-and-see sentiment remains heavy, with many waiting for terminal market feedback and domestic tender price dynamics.
Melamine: Yesterday, the domestic melamine market remained basically stable. From the current supply-demand perspective, market conditions are not optimistic, with high industry capacity utilization rates, domestic demand in off-season, and lackluster market trading atmosphere. In the short term, market expectations remain unclear, with continued wait-and-see attitudes prevailing.
Phosphate Fertilizer: Yesterday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market maintained stable operation, with Hubei 55% powder ex-factory around 3,430 yuan/ton, with actual transactions remaining negotiable. Supported by costs and pending shipments, factory prices remain firm, while downstream compound fertilizer companies resist high-priced raw materials and mainly purchase based on actual needs. Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate market showed consolidation, with Hubei region 64% ex-factory prices maintaining 3,800-3,850 yuan/ton, with actual orders remaining negotiable. Market trading atmosphere continues to be sluggish, with downstream maintaining only small-batch restocking based on needs, market participants mainly adopting wait-and-see attitudes, and the market continuing volatile consolidation in the short term.
Potash Fertilizer: Yesterday, domestic potassium chloride market prices remained temporarily stable, with backbone enterprises still mainly directly supplying downstream compound fertilizer factories at previous prices. Market traders’ selling prices vary, obviously higher than large-scale trading shipment prices, with transactions negotiated case by case. The potassium sulfate market showed an overall weak trend, with prices showing slight declines.
Compound Fertilizer:* Yesterday, the domestic compound fertilizer market showed no obvious fluctuations. Affected by factors such as continued slow sales volume release and limited fluctuations in major upstream raw materials, companies are cautious about price adjustments, with preferential policies mostly extended. Distributors’ enthusiasm for pickup needs further improvement, with local wait-and-see atmosphere persisting. The compound fertilizer market is expected to mainly consolidate in the short term.
Rumours are about to become reality with more than 1 mill MT lined up from China to India with the endorsement of NDRC albeit no official announcement as of yet
With the market tightening and prices firming West of Suez on persistent capacity constraints in Algeria and Egypt, but the opposite picture seen in the East on plant restarts, arbitrage opportunities have emerged for August and September business.
While access to the Red Sea from the Middle East remains limited to a handful of suppliers, talk is growing of cargoes from the Arabian Gulf possibly heading around the Cape of Good Hope in greater numbers over the coming weeks.
One such cargo was recently sold into the US from Saudi Arabia by a trader and with the market now well supplied in Asia Pacific but balanced to short in the West, some players are mulling sending material to Europe and North Africa from the East.
The bullish tone was reflected in a significant jump in the Tampa contract for August, with the settlement of the US benchmark at $487pt cfr, up $70pt month-on-month, following spot deals in Europe and the US as significant premiums to last done.
While the size of the uplift took some market participants by surprise – particularly in Asia Pacific where conditions remain bearish on strong supply and soft demand – capacity curtailments in North Africa have badly hit traders’ loading schedules.
Such a loss of volume forced one leading player into the spot market at $520pt fob for a 15,000t Turkish cargo for term customers in Spain, with such a delivery usually satisfied by Algerian and Egyptian tonnes.
Several AG cargoes now en route via Red Sea
The lack of North African cargoes has prompted a flurry of shipments from East of Suez for Turkey, with around 75,000t heading up the Red Sea in recent weeks, some of which had been earmarked for India.
However, with Indian spot demand there relatively weak, a 20-24,000t cargo of Iranian volume offered under tender this week may also head to Europe this month.
The supply outlook is brighter in the Americas, where around half a million tonnes of ammonia was loaded at ports in the US Gulf, Caribbean and South America during July, plenty of which has been shipped across the Atlantic to import hubs throughout Europe and North Africa.
Despite the higher prices in such regions, margins on key derivatives such as phosphates and nitrates remain attractive for many ammonia users, though the same is not true of some industrial products, hence the lack of interest in spot cargoes among buyers in Northeast Asia
Gd
Iranian producers announced $430/mt on Saturday.
Morning. Int'l paper quiet last week in run-up to IPL tender close (today). Aug/Sep Nola Nola Urea stabilising, and repeat trading, at $460 by end of week, with mkts framed:
AG
Aug $480//$500
Sep $475//$490
Q4 $435//$470
Cfr Brazil
Aug $475//$485
Sep $475//$485
Oct $450//$490
Egypt
Aug $480//$500
Sep $460//$490
Nola
Phys: Aug traded $458. Sep $460, $462 (Buyer’s)
Paper:
Aug $458//$462– traded $460
Sep $455//$460 – traded $460
Oct $438//$447 – traded $442
Nov $425//$440
Q4 $427//$445
Q1 $415//$435
DAP Nola
Aug $798//$810
Sep $800//$810
Q4 $710//$735
Q1 $675//$695
MAP Brazil
Aug $740//$765
Sep $735//$760
Market outlook for China domestic
According to the analysis by Longzong Information, the domestic urea market saw a downward trend last week. There has been no further development on the policy-related news, which has led to a cooling of market sentiment. Additionally, the current domestic demand is limited, and the export follow-up has been sluggish, putting pressure on the urea market. It seems that there are no immediate positive factors to support the market, and it may continue to remain stagnant for the time being. Going forward, continued attention should be paid to developments in demand, exports, and Indian import specifications.
According to current Chinese regulations, the export of MAP (Monoammonium Phosphate) will be prohibited after October 15th.
Please note that it takes approximately 20-30days to complete the CIQ inspection for MAP.
Therefore, we kindly ask you to confirm your order no later than September 15th if you still plan to purchase this year.
As of July 28, France had harvested 89% of its soft wheat crop, compared to 63% a year earlier and 78% on average over the past five years, according to FranceAgriMer
This is same company as the sulphur floater
This vessel MV Sentosa 66 a “floater” with Chinese DAP bought by IPC, Iran from Xiangfang China is floating outside Kandla, India waters. The vessel is gearless……
India – The cargo has been rejected by major Indian buyers and has been offered to every tom, dick and harry in India. RCF/HURL/NFL will not touch a floater.
Pakistan – Cargo was offered to major buyers in Pakistan however outrightly rejected.
Bangladesh – Cargo was offered to various buyers however Bangladesh needs gearless vessel.
Let us watch where this cargo goes…… it is 54,000 MT X ??? = atleast US $ 40 Million on the water……………..
The revision downward of the US non-farm payrolls data is mainly due to political interference and statistical adjustments:
Context of data correction
In July 2025, the number of non-farm payrolls unexpectedly dropped to 73,000 from the anticipated 104,000, primarily due to the significant downward revisions made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to the May and June data. Specifically, the May data was revised downward by 125,000 (from +144,000 to +19,000), while the June data was revised downward by 133,000 (from +147,000 to +14,000), resulting in a cumulative downward revision of 258,000.
1. Political factors
During his term in office, former President Trump instructed the Bureau of Labor Statistics to adjust data to influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policies. For instance, the data revision in July 2025 coincided with a crucial period when he was pushing for tariffs, leading the market to speculate that he might manipulate the statistics to force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
2. Differences in statistical methods
The non-farm payrolls data consists of two parts: household surveys and enterprise surveys, and there are significant differences between the two. For example, the household survey in July showed a decrease of 260,000 in employment, which contrasts sharply with the 73,000 new jobs reported in the enterprise survey, reflecting the differences in statistical methodologies.
𝗧𝗦𝗣 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁
In a market where most phosphate fertilizers have seen price swings over the past few weeks, TSP has remained almost unchanged between the July 10 and July 24 reports.
🔹 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗼𝗰𝗰𝗼 (Granular FOB): $545–593/t (steady vs. two weeks ago)
🔹 𝗧𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗮 (Granular FOB): $555–565/t (unchanged)
🔹 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮 (Granular FOB): $580–600/t (stable)
🔹 𝗨𝗦 – New Orleans (Spot FOB): $630–650/short ton
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗶𝗼𝘂𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘀 𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝘀 𝘂𝘀:
Even with upward price pressure on DAP and MAP, TSP producers are still holding their ground and avoiding any price movement.
OCP’s recent sales — $620–645 CFR to Western Europe and $625–630 CFR to South & West Asia — despite official price stability, suggest that the market’s pulse may be quietly shifting.
𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀:
Two consecutive weeks of price stability could indicate a short-term equilibrium, where both suppliers and buyers are waiting for a stronger signal from the DAP market and phosphoric acid prices.
This kind of silence often precedes a decisive move — whether a short rally or a downward correction.
August 1st – China domestic market, Fertilizer raw materials
Zedong 55% ammonium powder produced 3470
Yiqing 55% ammonium powder comes out of factory 3,450
Selong 55% powder ammonium produced 3,430
Puwang 54% powder ammonium produced 3,350
Cheno 55% powder ammonium produced at factory 3,440
Yangfeng 55% powder ammonium production 3460
Ezhong 58% of the powder produced at the factory 3,700
Euzhou 53% of ammonium powder produced at the factory 3,260
Dasheng 58% powder ammonium produced 3,700
Yihua 58% powder ammonium produced 3,700
Wheat Ridge 60% powder ammonium produced 3880
Zedong 72% manufactured ammonium, 5920
Yihua 73% manufactured ammonium produced 6080
Mixing fertilizer raw materials
Zedong 55% particles ammonium nitrate produced 3450
55% of grain ammonium in eastern China comes out of the factory 3450
Yun Tianhua 8-40 Ammonium Dioxide delivered to 2980
Merck 60% particle potassium 3550 (tonne pack) small pack 3620
Round pellet potassium chloride factory tonnage 3530 small package 3550
Roble 52% of grains of potassium sulphate 3980 withdrawn from reservoir
Xingfa 64% yellow ammonium chloride production 3 860
East Saint 64% brown diammonium production 3 860
Xifa 57% ammonium dioxide out of factory 3,450
Yihua 64% of ammonium permanganate production 3 860
Shaanxi Chemical 60% yellow particles diammonium produced 3630
Xiangfeng 57% yellow particles diammonium production 3330
Xiangfeng 64% ammonium dioxide production 3730
Yun Tianhua 57% chromium diammonium arrived at station 3,530