**PAPER FORWARD CURVE / FUTURES** by Falcon
Urea mkts saw some pressure again y'day, but seemingly found a nearby floor/support at lower levels – July Brazil traded down to $400cfr to then have bids bounce back up ($418cfr traded late on), while July Nola phys traded down to $340 before values returned to mid-$350s. Mkts framed:
*AG*
Jun $450//$490
Jul $380//$405
Aug $375//$410
Sep $360//$410
*Cfr Brazil*
Jun $450//$500
Jul $405//$423 – traded $405, $400, $418 (2.5k)
Aug $405//$420
Sep $390//$420
*Egypt*
Jun $510//$550
Jul $430//$485
*cfr Brazil AS*
Jun $220//$235
Jul $200//$220
Aug $200//$230
*FOB China (Compacted) AS*
Jun-Jul $210//$235
*Nola Urea*
Phys: Loaded traded $355; Jul $350, $340, $355
Paper:
Jun $390//$410
Jul $355//$362
Aug $350//$360
Sep $358//$375
Oct $365//$380 – traded $380, $375
Q3 $355//$367
Q4 $365//$380 – Dec traded $380
Q1 $385//$400
*DAP Nola*
Jun $770//$790
Jul $750//$775
Aug $740//$780
Sep $740//$780
*MAP Brazil*
Jul $860//$900
Aug $850//$900
Sep $855//$895
Rumour has it, Philip Sunderland is no longer the world record holder of the largest Urea cargo ever loaded! Chia Thai in Thailand is heard to have loaded 100kt onboard the MV Cape Trader, the vessel just loaded in Al Jubail and is presently enroute to Kosichang
13 years was not a bad run!
+++
Freight Analytics – Sample Raw Data
<span style="color: #c7ccd2">ORDERS QUOTED </span><span style="color: #157efb">17 JUNE</span><span style="color: #c7ccd2">
ACCOUNT AENAV
40/58,000 DWT – DELY CJK RIZHAO RANGE – BULK UREA – REDEL EAST COAST INDIA – 20/25 JUNE
ACCOUNT CARGILL
28/39,000 DWT – DELY JORF LASFAR – BULK FERTS – REDEL ECSA – 19/24 JUNE
28/39,000 DWT – DELY DAMIETTA – BULK FERTS – REDEL ECSA – 27/30 JUNE
28/39,000 DWT – DELY HEROYA – BULK FERTS -REDEL ATL – 26/30 JUNE
ACCOUNT DEAD SEA WORKS
6,000 BULK SULPHUR – ELEFSIS/ASHDOD – 3,000 X/2,000 X – </span><span style="color: #157efb">30 JUNE</span><span style="color: #c7ccd2">/3 JULY
ACCOUNT GMT SINGAPORE
46/58,000 DWT – DELY CJK – BULK FERTS – REDEL INDOENSIA – 24/28 JUNE
ACCOUNT GRAIN COMPASS KFT
37/64,000 DWT – DELY NIGERIA – BULK FERTS – REDEL DJIBOUTI – </span><span style="color: #157efb">1/31</span><span style="color: #c7ccd2"> JULY
28/51,000 DWT – DELY SOUTH VIETNAM – BULK FERTS – REDEL EAST COAST INDIA – 17/27 JUNE
ACCOUNT KOCH FERTILIZER LLC
30,000 BULK UREA – ARZEW/SOREL & CONTRECOEUR OR WILMINGONT OR MISSISSIPPI OR VERA CRUZ & ALTAMIRA – 7,000 X/3,500 & 3,500 X OR 8,000 C OR 8,000 C OR 3,500 C & 3,500 C – 28/30 JUNE
ACCOUNT SILK ROAD SHIPPING
55/81,000 DWT – DELY RED SEA – BULK FERTS – REDEL WEST COAST INDIA – 17/20 JUNE
ACCOUNT TRANSBULK INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING
30/50,000 DWT – DELY RED SEA – BULK FERTS – REDEL WEST COAST INDIA – 20/30 JUNE
MISCELLANEOUS
50,000 BULK FERTS – SAFAGA/KANDLA OR HAZIRA OR DAHEJ – 14,000 X/10,000 X – 17/27 JUNE
40/50,000 BULK SULPHUR – UMM QASR/PARANAGUA – 3,500 C/4,000 C – 17/27 JUNE
40,000 BULK FERTS – RUSSIAN BLACK SEA/CHITTAGONG & MONGLA – 5,000 X/4,000 X – 25/30 JUNE
40,000 BULK PHOSROCK – HAMRAWEIN/HAZIRA – 8,000 X/12,000 C – 25/30 JUNE
28/38,500 BULK PHOSROCK – DAKAR/HAZIRA OR DAHEJ – 5,000 C/10,000 X – 16/26 JUNE
25/33,000 BULK FERTS – AQABA/KANDLA OR HAZIRA – 10,000 X/8,000 C – 17/27 JUNE
25,000 BULK UREA – QINGDAO/KRISHNAPTNAM-GANGAVARAM-VIZAG – 5,000 C/6,000 C – 20/30 JULY
22/28,000 BULK UREA – 1 ARABIAN/ISKENDERUN – 4,000 X/5,000 X – 17/27 JUNE
15,000 BULK UREA – BANDAR ABBAS OR ASSALUYEH/CHITTAGONG OR COLOMBO – 5,000 C/5,000 C – FLEX LAYCAN
10/20,000 BAGGED SULPHUR – UMM QASR/MERSIN-QINGDAO-RIZHAO-TIANJIN – 1,500 X/2,500 X – 15/30 JUNE
10/12,000 BULK FERTS – BATUMI/ODESSA – 4,000 X/1,500 X – 25/30 JUNE
8/10,000 BULK FERTS – BARCELONA/CHORNOMORSK OR PIVDENNY – 5,000 X/2,500 X – 22/24 JUNE
8,000 BULK UREA – BANDAR ABBAS OR ASSALUYEH/DJIBOUTI – 5,000 C/5,000 C – FLEX LAYCAN
6,600 BULK FERTS – YANGZHOU/PORT KLANG – CQD/CQD – 17/27 JUNE
5,000 BULK NPK – AQABA/CHORNOMORSK-PIVDENNY – 3,000 X/1,500 X – 5/7 JULY
3,000 BAGGED AMMONITRATE – POTI/PUERTO MARIEL – 2 DAYS X – 17/21 JUNE</span>
SABIC sold 25kt Gran Urea at USD 500 FOB Yanbu, July shipment to an open destination.
China export urea is indicated at USD 430-440/mt FOB for prills and USD 470-480/mt FOB for granulars. The floor price remains unchanged, though unconfirmed market talk suggests the non-India floor may have been lifted; nothing official has been communicated. The India tender netback is calculated at around USD 410-420/mt FOB, rendering Chinese material uncompetitive for that business. Should the USD 500-520/mt FOB floor persist, domestic and export levels risk converging, given that the new CNFIA Q3 domestic price ceiling is already equivalent to approximately USD 320-335/mt FOB. Market participants are waiting on CNFIA to revise the export floor but no adjustment appears imminent.
Domestic urea is trading at RMB 1,760-1,770/mt EXW for prills and RMB 1,840-1,870/mt EXW for granulars, firming this week on export delivery demand and the upward Q3 price ceiling revision. Production is running at approximately 211,700 mt/day with factory stocks at 1,085,800 mt. Underlying demand remains weak; recent price support is policy-driven rather than demand-led, with top-dressing requirements in key regions not expected before July. Export is providing limited relief given the unworkable floor price. Further domestic pressure looks likely in the near term.
National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) lifted the export price cap for urea shipments to destinations other than India. The price cap for urea exports bound for India remains unchanged.
ICE canola futures extended losses on Tuesday as crude oil sold off sharply following reports of an interim ceasefire deal in the Middle East. July canola settled down USD 3.20 at USD 748.90 per metric tonne. November fell USD 6.50 to USD 753.90. Canola and vegetable oils broadly track crude oil given the linkage to biofuel demand. Euronext rapeseed lost 1.12%. Malaysian palm bucked the trend, rising 2.02%. CBOT July soyoil fell 1.45 cents to 72.92 cents per pound, dragged lower by the slide in US crude. Bean oil has been under particular pressure from the preliminary US-Iran peace agreement. ICE July soyoil settled down USD 1.45 at 74.37 cents per pound.
**SOYBEANS AND SOYMEAL**
CBOT soybean futures rebounded on Tuesday on market talk that Chinese buyers were returning to the US market. July soybeans settled up 10.75 cents at USD 11.30 per bushel after touching a session low of USD 11.07.5. New crop November closed up 11.75 cents at USD 11.46.5 per bushel. CBOT July soymeal finished up USD 2.80 at USD 304.80 per short tonne. The USDA rated 66% of the US soybean crop in good-to-excellent condition as of Sunday, up one percentage point on the week. Planting was 95% complete, one point below analyst estimates but two points ahead of the five-year average.
**CRUDE OIL AND MACRO**
Crude oil fell approximately 5% for a second consecutive session to a three-month low after details emerged of an interim deal to end the Middle East conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, including provisions allowing Iran to resume oil exports. The price weakness may also have prompted farmers who had been holding out for a conflict-driven price recovery to begin pricing old crop inventory and anticipated new crop harvest, adding further downward pressure on vegetable oil markets.
**CURRENCIES AND CENTRAL BANKS**
The US dollar held near ten-day lows on Tuesday as the preliminary Iran deal lifted risk appetite. The dollar index was steady at 99.58. The euro gained 0.16% to USD 1.1605. Sterling was little changed at USD 1.3422. The yen was broadly flat at 160.31 per US dollar, hovering near the closely watched 160 level after the Bank of Japan raised rates to a 31-year high in a 7-1 vote, as widely anticipated. The split vote introduced some uncertainty over the timing of the next hike. BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida reiterated that monetary policy remains accommodative and that upside inflation risks are a concern. The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged unanimously following three consecutive hikes, even as inflation remains elevated. The Australian dollar held near unchanged at USD 0.706. Both the Fed and Bank of England are expected to hold rates at their respective meetings later this week. Wednesday’s FOMC meeting is the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, and his tone on communications policy will be closely watched by markets.
**FALCON PAPER VALUES/FORWARD CURVE**
Urea mkts trending lower yesterday – Int'l paper focused on July Brazil with values found between $415-$420cfr, while Nola prices softened $15+/-, as loaded barges traded $365, and Jul-Aug paper traded in/around $360. Mkts framed:
*AG*
Jun $450//$490
Jul $383//$402
Aug $365//$410
Sep $350//$410
*Cfr Brazil*
Jun $450//$500
Jul $415//$425 – traded $415, $420
Aug $395//$425
Sep $385//$425
*Egypt*
Jun $510//$550
Jul $435//$490
*cfr Brazil AS*
Jun $215//$235
Jul $200//$225
Aug $200//$230
*FOB China (Compacted) AS*
Jun-Jul $210//$235
*Nola Urea*
Phys: Loaded traded $365
Paper:
Jun $390//$415
Jul $355//$360 – traded $360, $358
Aug $355//$360 – traded $362, $360
Sep $355//$368
Oct $360//$375
Q3 $355//$367
Q4 $365//$380 – Dec traded $395 (500st)
Q1 $385//$400 – $400 (500st)
*DAP Nola*
Jun $770//$790
Jul $750//$775
Aug $740//$780
Sep $740//$780
*MAP Brazil*
Jul $905 Offer
Aug $850//$900
Sep $855//$895
**AQUIBOT UPDATED** – im still training it, but it got an upgrade today
**NEW FEATURE** – Please check out the new tab *NETBACK*, helps users identify which origin is best to buy from FOB netback calculator and also the reverse a quick *ON-FARM CALCULATOR*
Falcon Paper Values/Forward Curve
Urea paper mkts adjusting lower y'day in response to the prospect/expectation of a US/Iran deal, and the Straight of Hormuz reopening, but little detail surrounding any agreement so far. Trading activity focused in Nola, where Jun-Jul phys traded $370-$360, while Q4 traded $380 (down $30 from last week). Mkts framed:
*AG*
Jun $450//$490
Jul $385//$410
Aug $375//$415
Sep $360//$415
*Cfr Brazil*
Jun $450//$500
Jul $400//$430
Aug $385//$425
Sep $375//$425
*Egypt*
Jun $510//$550
Jul $440//$500
*cfr Brazil AS*
Jun $215//$235
Jul $200//$230
Aug $200//$235
*FOB China (Compacted) AS*
Jun-Jul $210//$235
*Nola Urea*
Phys: Loaded traded $380. Jun $370, $360. Jul $370
Paper:
Jun $390//$420
Jul $365//$370
Aug $365//$375
Sep $365//$380 – traded $376 (500st)
Oct $375//$390
Q3 $365//$375
Q4 $373//$390 – traded $380
Q1 $385//$400
*DAP Nola*
Jun $770//$790
Jul $775//$785
Aug $775//$785
Sep $775//$785
*MAP Brazil*
Jul $905 Offer
Aug $850//$900
Sep $855//$895
**China to lower export price this afternoon for urea**
**China Domestic Urea Pricing RMB/Mt EXW**
**Henan**
Tianqing 1730 drops by 20.
Jinkai Zhong 1750 stable.
Jinkai-Da 1790 stable.
Zhongying 1730 is stable.
Heart to Heart 1765 down by 30.
**Anhui** is stable.
Hao Yuan 1770
Hao Yuan Large 1880
Quan Sheng 1770
Quan Da Sheng 1880
Linquan 1770
**Shandong** (Largest urea producing province)
Dongping Rui-Star 1740 increased by 10.
Ming Shui’s quote is 1,750, an increase of 20.
Ming Shengda’s quote is 1,750, an increase of 20.
The Alliance 1750 is stable.
Offers for amsul in China are tracking urea prices down, suppliers trying to keep price above USD 220 FOB – but it is heard offers are slipping to USD 210 FOB.
**China Morning Brief – 16 June 2026**
Urea
New contract sales at lower prices across key domestic regions have slowed the pace of price declines. Traders are in a holding pattern, waiting to see whether further positive signals emerge. Producers carrying relatively higher price levels continue to face downward pressure.
Ammonia
The synthesis ammonia market in key production regions showed mixed signals over the weekend. Pre-holiday restocking from downstream buyers provided some support, but overall supply remains comfortable. High-priced trading continues to face resistance. With producers keen to keep inventory lean in hot weather conditions, minor price adjustments are expected in the near term, with modest upside possible at the lower end.
Ammonium Chloride
Trading sentiment improved yesterday, with some downstream buyers making cautious low-level purchases. Producer willingness to hold prices has firmed, though low operating rates at compound fertiliser plants are capping demand. No significant market moves are expected near term. Export policy developments warrant monitoring.
Ammonium Sulphate
The market remained in wait-and-see mode yesterday, with buyers replenishing on an as-needed basis and sentiment broadly stable. Continued softness in international urea prices, combined with expectations around US-Iran negotiations, suggest further market movement remains possible. Watch for tender activity and pricing signals through the week.
Phosphate Fertilisers – MAP
Sulphur costs fell sharply yesterday, though overall production costs for monoammonium phosphate remain elevated, providing underlying price support. In Hubei, the primary market for 55% powder, ex-works prices are hovering around CNY 4,400/t. Trader activity is solid and downstream buyers are purchasing on requirement. The market is expected to hold steady near term.
Phosphate Fertilisers – DAP
The domestic DAP market remained cautious and subdued. Raw material costs have eased but remain high in absolute terms. Weak demand and sluggish trading activity are keeping sentiment defensive. A firm but cautious tone is expected to persist in the short term.
Potash
The domestic market continues to consolidate at soft levels. Appetite to sell potassium chloride remains strong, and transaction prices are largely negotiable, with regular reports of low-price deals. Import prices for 62% white MOP are typically ranging from CNY 3,150 to CNY 3,530/t. Sulphate-of-potash producers face evident sales pressure, though costs remain a floor.
Compound Fertilisers
The domestic market was stable but quiet yesterday. Key raw material prices remain in flux following shifts in the international backdrop, and the summer application season has not yet fully wound down. Cost support from raw materials is providing a floor. Several producers have paused pricing activity and the direction of the next pricing cycle remains uncertain. A cautious, observational tone is expected to dominate in the near term, with attention focused on pricing announcements from major producers.
Phosphate barometer lowered to 50/100, Neutral today, As the potential opening of the straits on Friday will likely mean Sulphur and Phosphates will start to flow.
As such we are seeing India and Pakistan bids lowered considerably, importers looking to pay sub USD 900 CFR.
Logistically it will take a while for the cheaper sulphur to arrive at destination, creating a cheaper DAP and thus it may take a while till we see significant price drops in DAP. **Dont forget to use our cost calculator in the *academy* to see what the production floor cost potentially is** – the closer we get to this number the higher the resistance.