Market Intelligence Feed

a 10Kt gran urea order at has been submitted to the CNFIA at lower prices than the export price floor for Cambodia – waiting to see if they agree a new price.

2026-06-23 by Phil Sunderland

**CHINA: Urea Self-Regulated Export Rules**

**1. Export Qualifications:** Only 74 urea producers have self-regulated export qualifications. Other factories are not eligible to apply for self-regulated export quotas. Traders can only source goods from these 74 approved factories.

**2. Self-Regulation Sub-Group Structure:** The China Nitrogen Fertiliser Association acts as group leader, divided into three product categories. Large granular urea group: Sinochem, Jinneng Holding, Zhongmei. Small granular urea group: Yuntianhua, Hualu Hengsheng. Vehicle-grade urea group: Xinlianxin. (Export order latest prices, domestic factory export enquiry volume increases, industry pricing, export quota releases, and customer approvals are handled by the respective sub-groups.)

**3. Full-Process Online Supervision:** An online approval platform for nitrogen fertiliser logistics storage and transportation. All export orders, contracts, loadings, and customs declarations are subject to online retention and inspection. Clearance is impossible without platform approval.

**4.** Enterprises can set their own prices based on international market conditions, no longer requiring a floor price, resolving the previous contradiction between high indicative prices and failed transactions.

**5. Quota Batch Control Rules:** The previous "50% in the first month" requirement is abolished. The full self-regulated quota can be shipped at once, with shipping schedule arranged by each enterprise independently. Pricing: no mandatory floor price currently, can benchmark against US Gulf, Brazil, and Middle East urea prices. Real-time flexible quota allocation released in batches on a rolling basis, prioritising domestic agricultural supply. Shipping window: June to September, quota need not be split 50%, stockpiling for shipment is permitted.

**6. Foreign Trade Contract Constraints:** Foreign trade contracts with overseas signatories are subject to strict qualification review. Foreign traders who default or violate terms will be blacklisted by the industry association and all business with them will cease.

**7. Destination Differentiated Controls:** Direct exports to Japan and the Philippines are prohibited. Exports to India carry a unified surcharge of USD 20/MT.

**8.** Self-regulation sub-groups can actively explore diverse export policies based on each sub-group's actual signing situation.

**!! Each enterprise should report based on international mainstream prices. Larger volume orders may be discounted appropriately. Orders submitted to the association for high-level approval must have prices clearly below international mainstream prices or they will not be approved.**

**!! Based on current signing status of each sub-group and current international market mainstream prices: Small granular prices provisionally no lower than FOB USD 430/MT. Vehicle-grade and large granular provisionally no lower than FOB USD 440/MT (already-signed orders below the indicative price will absolutely not be re-exported via AB contracts or transferred to India). Orders exceeding 5,000 MT must have vessel nomination submitted in advance.**

2026-06-23 by Phil Sunderland

**Paper Forward Curve/Futures** by Falcon

Quiet start to the week on Int'l paper as news of China revising export prices $50 lower emerged, while sales tenders (Qatar/Egypt) set to further test demand/define prices. In Nola, Urea values found at $355 across Jun/Jul/Aug Phys & Paper, while Nov through Jan paper traded $385-$390 in small vols. Mkts framed:

*AG*
Jun $450//$475
Jul $380//$405
Aug $375//$410
Sep $360//$410

*Cfr Brazil*
Jun $450//$480
Jul $405//$420
Aug $390//$420
Sep $380//$420

*Egypt*
Jul $425//$480

*cfr Brazil AS*
Jun $220//$233
Jul $190//$210
Aug $195//$220

*FOB China (Compacted) AS*
Jun-Jul $210//$230

*Nola Urea*
Phys: June traded $355; July $355
Paper:
Jun $380//$400
Jul $345//$355
Aug $350//$360 – traded $355
Sep $352//$363
Oct $355//$370
Q4 $365//$380
Nov/Dec/Jan traded $385, $390 (500st)
Q1 $380//$400

*DAP Nola*
Jun $770//$790
Jul $735//$750
Aug $725//$750
Sep $735//$755

*MAP Brazil*
Jul $850//$890
Aug $840//$880
Sep $840//$880

2026-06-23 by Phil Sunderland

**China Morning Daily**.
During June and July, it was the peak season for agricultural fertilizers in many regions of the country. Regional market trends were unfolding. Although interregional conflicts might not have been significant at the time, they would have limited support for the overall market situation. Short-term sentiment was weak, and export liquidity was limited, which resulted in the market continuing to perform weakly. There was still a possibility of minor price fluctuations.

2026-06-23 by Phil Sunderland

This is a US Treasury OFAC document — General Licence X — which essentially says:

**What it allows:** Anyone can now legally trade, ship, buy and sell Iranian crude oil, petrochemicals and petroleum products until 21 August 2026. That includes all the related shipping services — crewing, insurance, bunkering, flagging and so on — even on previously sanctioned vessels. Payments can be made in USD.

**What it does not cover:** No deals involving North Korea, Cuba, or Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine.

**Why it matters for fertilisers:** Iran is a major urea and ammonia exporter. This licence effectively legalises Iranian energy trade, which underpins Iranian fertiliser production economics and freight capacity. If energy sanctions are lifted, fertiliser sanctions relief likely follows — or is already assumed to be in the pipeline. This is consistent with the Islamabad Memorandum narrative you have been covering in the AQ Fert Update.

**Bottom line:** Washington has temporarily opened the door to Iranian oil. The market is reading this as a meaningful step toward broader sanctions normalisation, which is exactly why urea has been hitting 17-month lows.

2026-06-22 by Phil Sunderland

<a title="Independent- Hormuz Latest" href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-strait-of-hormuz-ships-us-oil-b3000199.html">The Independent- Hormuz Latest – Click Link</a>

2026-06-22 by Phil Sunderland

**China domestic urea – 22 June 2026**

The domestic market is in soft but broadening retreat. New order activity at factory level is subdued, though producers carrying pre-paid forward books are not yet under acute pressure. The directional signal is clear: supply is growing as previously idled capacity returns, demand is not keeping pace, and the Q3 guidance price premium that briefly supported sentiment has been fully absorbed. The market has reverted to fundamentals, and those fundamentals are bearish.

Factory-gate prices – small/medium granule, ex-works (CNY/t)
<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Province</td>
<td valign="middle">Factory price</td>
<td valign="middle">Market price</td>
<td valign="middle">Direction</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Hebei</td>
<td valign="middle">1,790-1,800</td>
<td valign="middle">1,830-1,850</td>
<td valign="middle">Stable</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Shandong</td>
<td valign="middle">1,750-1,820</td>
<td valign="middle">1,810-1,830</td>
<td valign="middle">Softening</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Anhui</td>
<td valign="middle">1,800 (cap)</td>
<td valign="middle">1,840-1,880</td>
<td valign="middle">Stable/capped</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Henan</td>
<td valign="middle">1,770-1,810</td>
<td valign="middle">1,820-1,830</td>
<td valign="middle">Slightly weaker</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Jiangsu</td>
<td valign="middle">1,810-1,860</td>
<td valign="middle">1,840-1,876</td>
<td valign="middle">Stable</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Guangdong</td>
<td valign="middle">n/a</td>
<td valign="middle">1,920-1,930</td>
<td valign="middle">Stable/easing</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Guangxi</td>
<td valign="middle">n/a</td>
<td valign="middle">1,870-1,890</td>
<td valign="middle">Stable/easing</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Xinjiang</td>
<td valign="middle">1,490-1,690</td>
<td valign="middle">1,600-1,700</td>
<td valign="middle">Stable</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Large granule commands a premium of CNY 80-100/t across most producing regions, with Hebei large granule at around CNY 1,900/t and Shandong at CNY 1,860-1,890/t.

The two-week comparison table tells the story more precisely. Of the named factory price moves between 18 and 22 June, the dominant direction is flat to down, with several significant movers to the downside.

Selected factory price movements, 18-22 June (CNY/t)
<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Producer</td>
<td valign="middle">18 June</td>
<td valign="middle">22 June</td>
<td valign="middle">Change</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Zhongyuan Dahua (Henan)</td>
<td valign="middle">1,800-1,810</td>
<td valign="middle">1,770-1,790</td>
<td valign="middle">-20 to -30</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Shandong Jinmei Mingshui</td>
<td valign="middle">1,800</td>
<td valign="middle">1,770</td>
<td valign="middle">-30</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Shandong Jinmei Mingshui Upgraded</td>
<td valign="middle">1,800</td>
<td valign="middle">1,770</td>
<td valign="middle">-30</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Shandong Runyin Ruixing</td>
<td valign="middle">1,810</td>
<td valign="middle">1,780</td>
<td valign="middle">-30</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Shandong Linyi market</td>
<td valign="middle">1,840</td>
<td valign="middle">1,820-1,830</td>
<td valign="middle">-10 to -20</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Shandong Heze market</td>
<td valign="middle">1,830</td>
<td valign="middle">1,810-1,820</td>
<td valign="middle">-10 to -20</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Henan Shangqiu market</td>
<td valign="middle">1,830</td>
<td valign="middle">1,820-1,830</td>
<td valign="middle">-10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Jiangsu Linggu small granule</td>
<td valign="middle">1,850</td>
<td valign="middle">1,860</td>
<td valign="middle">+10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Jiangsu Linggu large granule</td>
<td valign="middle">1,900</td>
<td valign="middle">1,910</td>
<td valign="middle">+10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Shandong Hualu Hengsheng</td>
<td valign="middle">1,730-1,800</td>
<td valign="middle">1,750-1,820</td>
<td valign="middle">+20</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
The Jiangsu and Hualu Hengsheng upticks are worth noting but should not be read as a trend. They represent individual positioning rather than any genuine demand pull.

Supply and operating rates

Daily urea output on 22 June stood at approximately 218,500 tonnes, with an operating rate of around 92.6%. On the Anhui Yunshi measure, daily capacity utilisation puts output modestly above the same date in 2025 by roughly 18,800 t/d. Several facilities that had been offline for maintenance have resumed, including Hebei Zhengyuan Huanghe and Shandong Lu’nan, adding incremental tonnes into an already long market. Hebei Zhengyuan Pingshan remains idled. Shandong Shouguang Union Beilu is in scheduled maintenance. Anhui Jinmei Zhongneng has shut older units while new capacity runs normally.

The most significant supply-side development on the horizon is the commissioning of Xinlianxin’s new 800,000 t/yr facility in Henan, scheduled for July. This will add material volume at a point in the season when downstream demand is historically at its weakest between the spring application close and the autumn campaign.

Demand outlook

Agricultural sector demand is providing a baseline through periodic seasonal restocking, but the signal is weak. Compound fertiliser plants within the key provinces are running at reduced rates and autumn fertiliser production has not yet begun. Industrial offtake is steady and underpinning the floor, but it is not a volume driver capable of tightening the market. Guangdong port inventory stands at around 80,000 t and Guangxi at approximately 70,000 t – both elevated enough to cap any near-term recovery in the south. The futures market decline has further dampened agricultural buying appetite.

The overall tone is one of weak consolidation. With operating rates high, new capacity imminent, and demand in a seasonal trough, the path of least resistance for domestic Chinese urea prices remains downward.

2026-06-22 by Phil Sunderland

CHINA UREA EXPORT – INDUSTRY GUIDANCE – JUNE 2026

The China Nitrogen Association has issued updated export pricing guidance following a period of thorough review. Recommended minimum FOB levels are as follows:

MINIMUM FOB LEVELS (USD/MT)

Prilled (small particle): USD 430

FOB Granular / large particle: USD 440 FOB

Automotive-grade: USD 440 FOB

INDIA – SUSPENDED All direct exports to India are suspended with immediate effect. Transit shipments routed via third countries to India are equally prohibited.

VESSEL DECLARATION For consignments exceeding 5,000 MT, vessel names will be provided for reference purposes following customs clearance.

*Source: China Nitrogen Association. Guidance current as at date of publication*

2026-06-22 by Phil Sunderland

**Iranian producers have pegged this week's benchmark at USD 365 FOB** down USD 10/t on last week.

Production status as of 21st June 2026:

The Hengam start-up is worth noting. The plant came online without any foreign contractor, licensor or technical consultant involvement, which given the sanctions environment is a reasonable achievement. The unit operates under a Saipem licence and carries a nominal capacity of 3,500 t/d, adding just over one million tonnes of annual urea capacity to the market. Hengam was also the first South Pars producer to resume ammonia production and exports following the ceasefire announcement. With Hengam now producing, Iran's aggregate urea capacity is approaching 10 million t/y, with the majority directed at export markets.

2026-06-22 by Phil Sunderland

<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"><strong>AQUIFERT DEVELOPMENT BLOG — Week 26, 2026</strong></p>
<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Thanks to our test users for flagging some bugs this week.</p>
<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"><strong>Freight Calculator</strong> has been approved and goes live shortly. A waypoint routing issue was causing knock-on errors in the <strong>On-Farm</strong> and <strong>FOB Netback</strong> calculators — all three are now corrected and more accurate than before.</p>
<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"><strong>Aquibot AI</strong> has had a full retrain. Results should be noticeably sharper. Live now.</p>
<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Head to the <strong>Vantage</strong> tab for the latest import/export data covering <strong>China</strong>, <strong>India</strong> and <strong>Argentina</strong>.</p>
<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Next feature set is currently in testing — more to follow soon.</p>

2026-06-22 by Phil Sunderland

FORWARD PAPER CURVE / Futures by Falcon

Urea prices adjusted down again last week to eventually find some bid support at lower levels, while US-Iran relations continue to provide a fluid and uncertain variable to trade flow from M.East, and the mkt in general. Paper framed close of week:

*AG*
Jun $450//$480
Jul $380//$405
Aug $375//$410
Sep $360//$410

*Cfr Brazil*
Jun $450//$490
Jul $395//$420
_[Jul traded $420-$400 range last week]_
Aug $395//$420
Sep $380//$420

*Egypt*
Jun $500//$540
Jul $425//$480

*cfr Brazil AS*
Jun $220//$233
Jul $200//$220
_[Jul traded $210 l/w]_
Aug $200//$230

*FOB China (Compacted) AS*
Jun-Jul $210//$235

*Nola Urea*
Paper:
Jun $380//$400
Jul $352//$357
_[Jul traded $360-$355 l/w]_
Aug $355//$365
Sep $355//$375
Oct $365//$380
Q3 $355//$367
Q4 $365//$380
Q1 $385//$400

*DAP Nola*
Jun $770//$790
Jul $735//$750
Aug $725//$750
Sep $735//$755
_[Q3 traded $747 l/w]_

*MAP Brazil*
Jul $860//$900
Aug $850//$900
Sep $855//$895

2026-06-22 by Phil Sunderland

China Morning Daily

UREA Domestic market recovered last week after an initial dip. Q3 self-discipline guidance price was raised, lifting sentiment. Spot prices rebounded and factory offers moved higher. However, export conversion remains slow and prior order support is fading. Near-term direction is likely sideways to soft under thin fundamental backing.

SYNTHETIC AMMONIA Mixed picture across major production regions ahead of the holiday. Some producers held firm on the back of higher input costs and partial downstream unit restarts, driving a low-end recovery. East China bucked this, pressured by weak downstream demand. Short-term outlook slightly positive – producer willingness to defend price is firm and ammonia may nudge higher.

AMMONIUM CHLORIDE Pre-holiday trading atmosphere improved modestly. Most producers still working through earlier deferred shipments but downstream enquiry picked up slightly, encouraging some sellers to hold back supply. Order intake better than prior weeks. Near-term supply-demand balance looks more constructive and prices may firm.

AMMONIUM SULPHATE Narrow and choppy last week. Northern coking-grade AS auction prices pushed higher and some end-users were taking delivery against existing orders, improving participation. Caprolactam-grade market remains soft with limited high-end trade. Overall bias is weak to sideways near term.

PHOSPHATES – MAP Pre-holiday DAP domestic trend firmed. Hubei 55% powder mainstream ex-works at CNY 4,450/MT, broadly in line with guidance price. Some traders pricing slightly above but deals being done at negotiated levels. Raw material costs remain elevated and are supporting the floor. Downstream buying on an as-needed basis. Near-term outlook firm.

PHOSPHATES – DAP Market holding steady ahead of the holiday, lifted by the guidance price revision. Most traders opting not to quote, preferring to let the market find higher ground. Downstream buyers cautious and watching from the sidelines. Near-term direction is steady with an upside bias.

POTASH – MOP Overall weak consolidation last week. Downstream factory purchasing remained cautious and new business was limited. MOP supply continuing to move but enquiry is thin and there is room to negotiate on price. SOP shipments slow with producer operating rates staying low.

COMPOUND FERTILISER (NPK) Sideways and sticky last week. Some raw material cost increases are feeding through into higher NPK costs and low-end offers are being pulled. However, underlying demand is soft, keeping trading quiet. Market focus is shifting toward autumn pre-booking. Current mainstream prices remain unclear and NPK is expected to move higher post-holiday in line with input costs.

2026-06-22 by Phil Sunderland

Chinese urea last traded FOB USD 440-450 FOB. Association approved.

Floor looks well supported from here

(India still unknown)

2026-06-22 by Phil Sunderland

CHINA FERTILIZER TRADE – JAN-MAY 2026

China’s customs data for May 2026 confirms the broad trends that have been building through the first five months of the year. China is exporting nitrogen in volume, retreating from phosphate exports, and importing potash at scale. The numbers are unambiguous.

EXPORTS

Total fertiliser exports in May 2026 came in at 2,970kt. Ammonium sulphate dominated the month entirely. Urea shipments were negligible at 3kt and MAP was effectively absent at 0.2kt. DAP recorded no exports.
<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Product</td>
<td valign="middle">May 2026 (kt)</td>
<td valign="middle">Avg Price (USD/t)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Urea</td>
<td valign="middle">3</td>
<td valign="middle">248.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Ammonium Sulphate</td>
<td valign="middle">2,000</td>
<td valign="middle">237.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">DAP</td>
<td valign="middle">–</td>
<td valign="middle">–</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">MAP</td>
<td valign="middle">0.2</td>
<td valign="middle">780.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Total All Fertiliser</td>
<td valign="middle">2,970</td>
<td valign="middle">–</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
The cumulative Jan-May picture adds important context. Total exports of 14,360kt are up 11.9% year-on-year in volume and 23.4% in value, reaching USD 3,347m. AS at 8,370kt is the engine of that growth. Urea at 500kt cumulative produces a spectacular percentage on a near-zero 2025 base but the absolute tonnage remains modest – this is not yet a market-moving volume. DAP at 20kt cumulative confirms China is absent from the phosphate export market in any meaningful sense this year.
<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
<p style="text-align: left">Product</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: left" valign="middle">Jan-May 2026 (kt)</td>
<td style="text-align: left" valign="middle">Value (USD m)</td>
<td style="text-align: left" valign="middle">YoY Qty</td>
<td style="text-align: left" valign="middle">YoY Value</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Urea</td>
<td valign="middle">500</td>
<td valign="middle">196</td>
<td valign="middle">+4,415%</td>
<td valign="middle">+8,359%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Ammonium Sulphate</td>
<td valign="middle">8,370</td>
<td valign="middle">1,618</td>
<td valign="middle">+20.0%</td>
<td valign="middle">+62.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">DAP</td>
<td valign="middle">20</td>
<td valign="middle">1.4</td>
<td valign="middle">-79.6%</td>
<td valign="middle">–</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">MAP</td>
<td valign="middle">110</td>
<td valign="middle">6.8</td>
<td valign="middle">+22.4%</td>
<td valign="middle">–</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: left" valign="middle">Total All Fertiliser</td>
<td style="text-align: left" valign="middle">14,360</td>
<td style="text-align: left" valign="middle">3,347</td>
<td style="text-align: left" valign="middle">+11.9%</td>
<td valign="middle">
<p style="text-align: left">+23.4%</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
IMPORTS

May imports totalled 1,720kt, almost entirely potash. MOP came in at 1,610kt for the month at an average price of USD 351.8/t. NPK compound at 80kt was the only other product of note.
<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Product</td>
<td valign="middle">May 2026 (kt)</td>
<td valign="middle">Avg Price (USD/t)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Potassium Chloride (MOP)</td>
<td valign="middle">1,610</td>
<td valign="middle">351.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">NPK Compound</td>
<td valign="middle">80</td>
<td valign="middle">648.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Total All Fertiliser</td>
<td valign="middle">1,720</td>
<td valign="middle">–</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Cumulative Jan-May MOP imports of 7,420kt are up 31.8% year-on-year in volume and 66.2% in value at USD 2,619m. China is buying potash assertively and the value increase running well ahead of the volume increase tells you pricing is firming. NPK compound at 470kt is up 4.5%, a steady rather than aggressive import pace.
<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Product</td>
<td valign="middle">Jan-May 2026 (kt)</td>
<td valign="middle">Value (USD m)</td>
<td valign="middle">YoY Qty</td>
<td valign="middle">YoY Value</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Potassium Chloride (MOP)</td>
<td valign="middle">7,420</td>
<td valign="middle">2,619</td>
<td valign="middle">+31.8%</td>
<td valign="middle">+66.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">NPK Compound</td>
<td valign="middle">470</td>
<td valign="middle">290</td>
<td valign="middle">+4.5%</td>
<td valign="middle">+5.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">Total All Fertiliser</td>
<td valign="middle">8,110</td>
<td valign="middle">3,042</td>
<td valign="middle">+31.3%</td>
<td valign="middle">+58.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
THE READ

Three things stand out. First, AS is China’s nitrogen export story in 2026. At 8,370kt in five months at USD 237.9/t FOB in May, the volume and pricing are both competitive and the supply overhang into global markets is substantial. Any buyer of AS needs to understand that China is the dominant swing supplier and shows no sign of pulling back. Second, the urea export number bears watching but should not be overstated yet. 500kt cumulative is not enough to move the seaborne market, but if June and July data show acceleration the tone will change quickly. Third, on the import side, China’s MOP buying is the most significant signal in this dataset. 7,420kt in five months, up 31.8% year-on-year, with value growth of 66.2%, points to both strong domestic demand and a deliberate strategy of building inventory while contract pricing remains accessible. Canpotex and BPC will be reading these numbers carefully.

2026-06-21 by Phil Sunderland

<a title="Link" href="https://miningdigital.com/news/bhp-raises-jansen-stage-2-potash-cost-to-us-6-9bn">Mining Digital New Link – Click here</a>

BHP has warned of cost overruns at its <a href="https://miningdigital.com/articles/bhp-to-invest-4-9bn-in-stage-two-of-jansen-stage-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-cke-saved-href="https://miningdigital.com/articles/bhp-to-invest-4-9bn-in-stage-two-of-jansen-stage-2">Jansen Stage 2 potash mine</a> in Canada of US$2bn, but still predicts strong EBITDA margins above 65% and an internal rate of return of 11%.

The Melbourne-based operator projects a 41% total cost rise from US$4.9bn to US$6.9bn, driven by additional construction and materials costs, plus escalation. The company also expects to recognise a US$2.3bn impairment charge against the broader Jansen asset base at 30 June 2026.

2026-06-21 by Phil Sunderland

« Previous 1 … 3 4 5 6 7 … 177 Next »