Fresh out of the Chinese media:
Main Headline
[Iranian Military Announces Closure of the Strait of Hormuz]
Cailian Press, June 20: The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters of the Iranian Armed Forces stated on the 20th local time that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed to all vessel navigation. (CCTV News)
CHINA DOMESTIC UREA – MORNING PRICES
Domestic factory quotations have firmed over the past two days on the back of improved order intake, with prices in key regional markets moving back towards guidance levels. Export progress remains absent, however, and underlying demand is thin. The market may consolidate near guidance price territory; sentiment is supportive for now but a sideways drift remains the more likely near-term outcome if export activity fails to materialise.
PRILLED UREA – DELIVERED (CNY/MT) Shandong Linyi: CNY 1,850 (+30)
Henan Shangqiu: CNY 1,840 (+20)
Hebei Wen’an: CNY 1,840 (+40)
Jiangsu Suqian: CNY 1,860 (+20)
PRILLED UREA – EX-WORKS (CNY/MT) Guangxi Nanning: CNY 1,900 (unch)
f<a href="https://hallgartenco.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Rio_Colorado_Potash.pdf">https://hallgartenco.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Rio_Colorado_Potash.pdf</a> – CLICK LINK TO DOWNLOAD FILE
The Potassio Rio Colorado (PRC) potash project in Mendoza has the potential to service all Argentina´s potash and have export potential to spare but…..
FAO – Food And Agriculture Policy Decision Analysis Tool
<a href="https://fapda.apps.fao.org/#main.html?trk=feed-detail_comments-list_comment-text">https://fapda.apps.fao.org/#main.html?trk=feed-detail_comments-list_comment-text</a>
Countries have made fertilizer security a strategic priority in response to supply disruptions caused by the conflict in the Middle East, FAO analysis shows. Measures include expanding domestic production, improving market access, and supporting farmers through targeted assistance. Evidence suggests that fertilizer support works best when it’s well targeted, time-bound, and delivered through mechanisms such as e-vouchers, which improve efficiency and reduce waste or misuse. Subsidy programs should include a clear exit strategy and avoid excessive fiscal costs. Long-term resilience depends on combining targeted support with investments in nutrient-use efficiency, soil health, and alternative fertilizer technologies.
Examples of policy measures taken through 31 May:
*Several countries made fertilizer a national priority.*
– Brazil designated fertilizer as a strategic input for food security, paving the way for tax incentives, credit lines, and investments under its National Fertilizer Plan.
– Pakistan instructed government agencies to ensure fertilizer supplies remained available and to monitor stocks.
– India kept fertilizer prices stable by diversifying imports and increasing domestic production.
*Countries sought to reduce dependence on imports by easing regulations and supporting domestic production.*
– The U.S. launched a plan to boost domestic fertilizer production by providing grants and speeding up approvals.
– Germany raised the cap on crop-based biofuels from 4.4% to 5.8%, increasing demand for crops that could be used for food or feed.
– Latvia simplified fertilizer regulations to make it easier for agribusinesses to sell and use fertilizers.
*Direct financial support remained a critical tool for helping farmers access inputs.*
– India significantly increased spending on fertilizer subsidies, allocating $18.1 billion for 2026-27.
– Portugal introduced a program allowing farmers and energy-intensive industries to receive subsidies covering up to 70% of their fertilizer costs through 2026.
– European Union launched a scheme to provide short-term financial support to member states to ensure affordable supplies for farmers.
*Policy decisions reflected a growing interest in alternative and green fertilizers.*
– Vietnam launched an organic fertilizer workshop that processes 1,000 tonnes of straw monthly to lower production costs and emissions.
– India called on farmers to cut chemical fertilizer use, though this effort lacked subsidy reform needed to incentivize a shift away from chemical inputs
<a href="https://www.staging.aquifert.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/AFC-MR-2.4-Bn-Offtake-260618.docx">AFC MR – $2.4 Bn Offtake – 260618</a> – CLICK LINK
Media Release: GLADSTONE SECURES $2.4 BILLION IN UREA DEALS
To our Asian community **HAPPY DRAGON BOAT FESTIVAL**
<strong class="Yjhzub" data-sfc-root="ep" data-sfc-cb="">“Duanwu An Kang”</strong>
**FORWARD PAPER CURVE / Futures** by Falcon
Int'l Urea paper on hold y'day after a US/Iran peace deal seemingly in place that'll re-open the Straight of Hormuz, and as NFL tender came to a conclusion (LOIs for 1.7mt). Brazil Amsul paper saw activity on July at $210cfr, while in Nola, Urea paper drifted lower with July trading $355, while DAP corrected downward to trade $747 for Q3. Mkts framed:
*AG*
Jun $450//$480
Jul $383//$405
Aug $375//$410
Sep $360//$410
*Cfr Brazil*
Jun $450//$490
Jul $400//$420
Aug $400//$420
Sep $385//$420
*Egypt*
Jun $500//$540
Jul $425//$480
*cfr Brazil AS*
Jun $220//$233
Jul $200//$220 – traded $210
Aug $200//$230
*FOB China (Compacted) AS*
Jun-Jul $210//$235
*Nola Urea*
Paper:
Jun $380//$400
Jul $352//$357 – traded $355
Aug $355//$365
Sep $355//$375
Oct $365//$380
Q3 $355//$367
Q4 $365//$380
Q1 $385//$400 – traded$400
*DAP Nola*
Jun $770//$790
Jul $735//$750
Aug $725//$750
Sep $735//$755
Q3 traded $747
*MAP Brazil*
Jul $860//$900
Aug $850//$900
Sep $855//$895
*Nexus Weekly Update*
*18/06/26*
In the Far East and South East Asia, momentum has shifted, resulting in a relatively flat week across the basin, with some rates beginning to soften. The story has been much the same across both Handysize and Supramax segments. Enquiry levels, excluding backhaul steel cargoes, had only just been sufficient to support the market for most of June, but this is no longer the case. That said, tonnage has not increased dramatically. However, should current conditions persist through to the end of the month, rates could begin to fall away more quickly. Some players though remain hopeful that momentum will return should the Strait reopen. With lower bunker prices, there is optimism that enquiry could improve and bring a fresh wave of activity over the summer.
The Indian Ocean has again been quiet this week, despite a dramatic change from last week, with a peace deal now expected to be signed tomorrow. While this should allow the remaining trapped vessels to transit, it is unlikely owners will rush back into the Gulf. Those willing to do so are expected to demand significant premiums given the uncertainty surrounding both the agreement itself and its longevity. Many charterers have already developed alternative loading and discharge options outside the Gulf and may continue to use them for some time, given the costs and uncertainty still associated with the region. Further south, the South African market has been slightly firmer, with some increased fronthaul enquiry into China. However, fixing activity remains limited as bunker prices in South Africa and the Indian Ocean have been slower to adjust than in Singapore and Europe. Should Hormuz reopen fully, there is hope that bunker prices will begin to fall more in line with the rest of the market.
In the Mediterranean and Continent, it has been a relatively quiet week, although optimism is beginning to build for the months ahead. A steady flow of scrap cargoes kept the market ticking over in the Continent, while activity elsewhere remained fairly limited. In the Mediterranean, particularly on the Handysize side, charterers' fronthaul ideas are no longer proving especially attractive to owners, particularly with the Pacific beginning to lose momentum. The source of optimism is instead coming from the grain market. Strong Chinese demand for French barley has already seen multiple Panamaxes booked forward, and Handy and Supra owners are hopeful this demand will filter down into their segments, providing support to rates across the basin. Whether Black Sea grains will bring similar support to the East Mediterranean remains to be seen.
The USG and USEC have had another strong week, although they are no longer generating the biggest headlines in the Atlantic – that title now belongs to East Coast South America. Healthy grain volumes once again supported the market, particularly when combined with coal and petcoke cargoes into India. The Baltic Exchange fronthaul rate from the USG to the Far East is up 16% since the start of the month, and there is little to suggest that momentum will fade in the near term. Should the Continent also begin to strengthen, concerns over excess tonnage would ease further, providing additional support for rates.
The East Coast South America market has had a very firm week, particularly on the Handysize side. A severe lack of tonnage has seen owners' ideas rise rapidly, yet the market continues to absorb these increases, with fixtures being concluded at ever higher levels. An abundance of grain enquiries remains the main driver behind the strength. That said, with the market moving so quickly, there is a growing reluctance among operators to commit to forward cargoes. Instead, many are focusing on clip deals and prompt business to avoid being caught on the wrong side of a rising market.
Bunker prices have fallen sharply following news of a peace deal involving Iran. Should oil begin flowing more freely out of the Gulf, prices may soften further. For the time being, however, the recent drop is likely to encourage traders and receivers to reassess the market and explore opportunities that may not have been workable only a few weeks ago. Singapore is currently trading around USD 660 and Gibraltar around USD 630, while Fujairah remains elevated at approximately USD 1,245.
NFL has pushed back the offer validity deadline in its urea import tender to 16:00 local time on 19th June, having originally been due to award today.
Separately, the 8th June tender has seen NFL secure acceptances marginally above its 1.7 million tonne target for shipment by 20th July, with business concluded at USD 444.90/mt CFR east coast and USD 449.30/mt CFR west coast.
Iranian producers have yet to publish an official price, with the market hovering around USD 375/mt and representing a USD 115/mt discount to last week.
Pardis is in the market with 30-90 Kt on offer for June shipment. PPC concluded two cargoes, 60 Kt and 30 Kt respectively, at USD 376/mt for end-June/early July loading.
Shiraz moved a 22 Kt prilled parcel at USD 375/mt for prompt loading ex-BND.
Kermanshah ran a 30 Kt tender for end-June shipment, attracting a high bid of USD 365/mt, which the producer declined to accept.
MIS has tonnage available at 30-90 Kt for June shipment, though it remains to be seen whether any business was concluded.
Lordegan invited bids on two separate 30 Kt parcels on 17th June, one on FOB terms and one on CFR terms covering South Africa, Turkey, West Africa and Southeast Asia, with June delivery. The FOB high bid reached USD 370.5/mt and the CFR high bid USD 420/mt. Bidders have been asked to sharpen their numbers ahead of a revised deadline of 21st June 2026.
Iran FOB values are currently pegged in a range of USD 365-376/mt, reflecting the spread between bids and done deals.
Urea Production Status: Pardis: Two lines operational at a combined 67% rate; third line offline. Shiraz (Prilled): Offline. Shiraz (Granular): Running. KPIC: Running. Lordegan: Offline, with the producer targeting a 19th June restart. MIS: Running. Khorasan: Running. Razi: Offline. Hengam: Ammonia production continuing; urea units halted on technical grounds.
Today it is said in China that export price for Urea are:
prilled usd 410 fob
granular usd 420 fob
India usd 430 fob
The SOE denied it immediately
The US-Iran MOU signed at Versailles commits Iran to reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for sanctions waivers on crude oil exports and banking services, with 60 days of nuclear negotiations to follow. Brokered by Pakistan, the deal has split opinion sharply: the G7 and most Western governments welcomed it, Israel condemned it outright, and US Republicans are divided. It is an MOU only, not a final agreement, and the nuclear question remains entirely unresolved. Iran’s chief negotiator called it a record of US failure while Trump claimed it a major win. Critically, Tehran has already signalled that the strait will not return to prewar conditions after the 60-day window, with Iran indicating it intends to impose transit charges or access conditions on commercial shipping once the truce period expires.
For the fertiliser industry the potential significance is considerable. The Persian Gulf accounts for an estimated 30-35% of global urea exports and 20-30% of ammonia exports, with Qatar’s QAFCO alone representing 14% of global urea trade. <a href="https://www.global-agriculture.com/crop-nutrition/understanding-how-the-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-is-disrupting-global-fertilizer-supply-chains/">Global Agriculture</a> The closure blocked roughly 21 million metric tonnes of annual urea export capacity across Iran, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, plus around 4 million metric tonnes of DAP capacity, with world urea prices approximately doubling through April and DAP rising around 35%. <a href="https://www.ifpri.org/blog/how-fertilizer-policies-could-exacerbate-hormuz-price-shocks/">IFPRI</a> A genuine and clean reopening would represent a material supply-side shift across nitrogen and phosphate markets, but Tehran’s stated position means that scenario is now in serious doubt.
Shipowners are already waiting for further operational detail before committing to transits, and even once clarity emerges, cargo movements are expected to be gradual as hundreds of stranded vessels compete for access. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-15/fertilizer-ships-face-long-backlog-even-if-hormuz-reopens">Bloomberg</a> There is an unavoidable lag between a political agreement and the first meaningful fertiliser shipments, meaning prices are likely to remain elevated even under a quick reopening scenario. <a href="https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/04/strait-of-hormuz-disruption-scenarios-and-fertilizer-purchasing-risks-for-u-s-crop-producers.html">Farmdoc Daily</a> If Iranian transit levies or access controls become a permanent structural feature, every cargo moving through the strait picks up an additional cost that feeds through to FOB and CFR prices across urea, ammonia, DAP and sulphur. The next Chinese quota announcement, the trajectory of Russian export restrictions, and Indian subsidy policy through late 2026 remain critical variables. <a href="https://www.ifpri.org/blog/how-fertilizer-policies-could-exacerbate-hormuz-price-shocks/">IFPRI</a> The conclusion is no longer simply that prices look sticky into Q3; the prewar supply and cost structure for Gulf-origin fertiliser may not return at all, even if the MOU holds.
Middle East crisis live: Tehran says it will charge ships in strait of Hormuz after 60 days; US-Iran presidents sign peace deal
Chief Iranian negotiator says key waterway will ‘not return to prewar conditions’ after 60-day window; both sides sign memorandum of understanding extending truce
ICE canola gave back further ground on Wednesday as markets digested Trump’s interim deal with Iran. July canola settled at USD739/mt, down USD9.90, while November lost USD7.80 to close at USD746.10.
Canola and vegetable oils broadly track crude, with softer oil prices weighing on biofuel demand. WTI fell on Strait of Hormuz reopening prospects before recovering over 1% after Trump walked back the ceasefire, warning hostilities could resume if terms prove unsatisfactory. Excess supply concerns capped the bounce.
David Derwin of Ventum Financial attributed most of this week’s canola weakness to falling crude alongside normal seasonal factors. July soyoil lost 1.38 cents to settle at 71.54 cents/lb. Euronext rapeseed edged 0.44% higher, while Malaysian palm futures were broadly unchanged.
Kazakhstan is pressing ahead with the second gas processing plant at Kashagan. The 2.5 bcm/year facility has officially entered the construction phase following a high-level meeting chaired by Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov, with QazaqGaz, PSA LLP, NCOC shareholders and other stakeholders reviewing progress and discussing measures to ensure timely completion. Target commissioning is 2029. At full capacity the plant will produce 568,000 MT/year of granulated sulphur, converting what is essentially a sour gas problem into a marketable commodity. Akkenzhenov has instructed all parties to ensure effective coordination to meet established deadlines, with QazaqGaz required to provide the Ministry of Energy with monthly progress updates covering implemented measures and emerging issues. By government decree, the EPC contractor is a Chinese consortium comprising China National Chemical Engineering Sixth Construction Company Kazakhstan Branch and China Wuhuan Engineering Corporation. Meanwhile, the first plant at 1 bcm/year capacity is progressing on schedule, with the workforce currently at 1,260 personnel and over 200 pieces of equipment deployed on site. Seven absorption columns have been installed at the sulphur treatment unit, weighing between 50 and 170 MT each, and three sections of the smokestack at the sulphur recovery block are in place. Once both plants are operational, combined processing capacity at Kashagan will reach 3.5 bcm/year. On sulphur volumes alone, that represents a material shift for the global granular sulphur trade. Worth watching.