*Inventory update*
Levels at 8% capacity.
*Freight steady*
No major changes in rates.
*Freight steady*
No major changes in rates.
*Prices up*
Spot market sees a $25/mt increase.
Tariff news:
-Europe: The European Commission has proposed to suspend 5.5-6.5% tariff on ammonia and urea imports for one year to cut costs for EU farmers. The tariff suspension whenever implemented will be for all countries, except Russia and Belarus, through duty-free tariff rate quotas.
-News from the US over the weekend: Imports of urea, nitrates (UAN, AN, AS), phosphates (DAP, MAP, TSP) and potash (MOP, SOP) will be exempt from the new 10% global tariff that was imposed by US President Donald Trump on 20 February to replace ones struck down by the Supreme Court.
Imports of ammonia, sulphur and sulphuric acid are not exempt, but products included in the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement are considered tariff free.
Morning. Slight stand-off on nearby AG paper y'day as RCF news 'digested'/LOIs awaited, but offers largely scarce, while Mar Brazil found value $475cfr. Nola Urea continued to run firm – loaded/Feb barges traded $480, Mar paper up to $472:
AG
Mar $478//$498
Apr $450//$467
May $440/$458
cfr Brazil
Mar $470//$482 – traded $475
Apr $450//$465
May $445//$455
Egypt
Mar $480//$495
Apr $470//$495
Nola
Phys: loaded traded $480. Feb $480. Mar $469-$474. Lh Mar/Fh Apr $465
Paper:
Mar $470//$474 – traded $468, $470, $472
Apr $440//$455 – traded $445 (500st), $443
May $405//$430
Brazil Amsul
Mar $210//$225
UAN Nola
Mar $340//$360
Apr $340//$360
DAP Nola
Feb $625//$640
Mar $620//$635
MAP Brazil
Mar $725/$737 – traded $730
Apr $717//$735
3 Development in the Syrian Phosphate market, one of them Phosphate washing-drying plant
Most are reading the recent Syrian phosphate announcements as political or reconstruction news.
That’s not the story.
The real question for acid producers and rock buyers is this:
> Is the Eastern Mediterranean about to gain a new 𝘄𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗲𝗱 𝗿𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿 with export intent — not just raw tonnage?
Let’s strip the noise.
With the restart of the washing & drying facility in Homs and multiple export/investment agreements moving forward, Syria is no longer talking about dormant reserves. It is talking about processable, export-ready rock.
That changes the equation for the phosphoric acid balance in the Mediterranean basin.
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝗰𝗶𝗱 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁?
1️⃣ Washed rock ≠ raw rock
Restarting the beneficiation capacity means:
Higher P₂O₅ consistency
Lower impurities
Better acid yield ratios
For acid plants in:
Southern Europe
Türkiye
Egypt
Even selective buyers in India
2️⃣ The Med supply map is tighter than it looks
Today, serious acid-grade rock in the Mediterranean corridor is structurally influenced by:
OCP Group
Jordan Phosphate Mines Company
If Syrian washed rock becomes commercially reliable at scale (big if), buyers suddenly gain a third lever.
Three forward scenarios (12–24 months)
🟢 Scenario A – Competitive Supplement
Syria supplies niche volumes to regional acid plants.
Mild FOB pressure in the East Med
Stronger buyer leverage in annual contracts
Limited structural shift
🟡 Scenario B – Price Disruptor in Tight Windows
In seasonal tightness (Indian buying waves, Moroccan maintenance, Jordan allocation shifts), Syrian rock becomes the swing tonnage.
Result:
Short-term volatility
Acid margin compression
Tactical renegotiations
🔴 Scenario C – Execution Gap
Infrastructure, sanctions friction, logistics or quality inconsistency limit scale.
Result:
Headlines fade
* No real pricing impact
The hidden signal
This isn’t about reserves.
It’s about 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 + 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 + 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴.
Direct Hedge – Atualização Diária do Mercado de Fertilizantes
Quarta-feira, 25 de fevereiro de 2026
Os mercados ganharam nova firmeza após as confirmações do tender da RCF na Índia, em torno de 1,3 milhão de toneladas. Os valores internacionais e dos EUA subiram nos meses mais próximos.
Derivativos/Papel
Mercados Internacionais
Ureia Golfo Árabe (fob) – último índice 487 (+1)
– Mar: $480 / $495 ↑
– Abr: $465 / $475 ↑
– Mai: $420 / $450 ↑
Ureia Egito (fob) – último índice 497.5 (-8.5)
– Mar: $470 / $505 ↑
– Abr: $450 / $475 →
Brasil
Ureia Brasil (cfr) – último índice 477.5 (-0.5)
– Mar: $470 / $475 ↑
– Abr: $450 / $475 ↑
– Mai: $430 / $450 →
Sulfato de Amônio Brasil (cfr) – último índice 217 (+2.5)
– Mar: $205 / $220 →
– Abr: $195 / $210 →
MAP Brasil (cfr) – último índice 725 (inalterado)
– Mar: $725 / $735 ↓
– Abr: $710 / $725 →
Mercados EUA (NOLA)
Ureia NOLA (papel)
– Fev: 455 / 465 →
– Mar: 470 / 480 ↑
– Abr: 455 / 465 ↑
– Mai: 415 / 420 ↑
DAP NOLA (papel)
– Fev: 620 / 635 ↓
– Mar: 620 / 625 ↓
– Abr: 620 / 625 ↓
– Mai: n/a / n/a →
UAN NOLA (papel)
– Fev: 325 / 330 →
– Mar: 330 / 345 →
– Abr: 330 / 345 →
– Mai: n/a / n/a →
Fisico: Se tiver interesse em fertilizantes físicos, contacte-nos.
Trabalhando atualmente: Nós iremos informá-lo
China domestic urea market:
Production has officially resumed today. Urea auctions are proceeding normally. The suggested bidding price is: Bo Da Urea 1,590 yuan per ton, Xing’an Bo Yuan 1,710 yuan per ton. A fluctuation of around 10 yuan per ton is recommended.
Market analysis for today.
After the holidays, the domestic urea market saw a modest but steady increase in prices. Currently, agricultural demand is rising, while industrial response has been relatively subdued. However, given the firm prices set by manufacturers, the market is also following suit temporarily. Nonetheless, many companies’ prices have already reached the guidance level for this month. In the short term, manufacturer prices may remain stable, while the market could experience further fluctuations based on sentiment, expectations, and other factors.
(Bloomberg) — Abu Dhabi’s Fertiglobe Plc, one of the
world’s biggest nitrogen fertilizer exporters, sees room to
expand further in Europe as curbs on Russian supply and the
bloc’s green agenda reshape the market.
While Russian fertilizers are not under sanctions since
supplies are seen as critical to global food security, the
European Union last year hit the country’s urea shipments with a
tariff that’s set to increase over the next three years. The
bloc is also weighing caps on Russian ammonia as part of its
next package of sanctions, which have been expanding since the
Kremlin sent troops into Ukraine in 2022.
Levies on urea have already pushed some volumes into the
US, where Russia became a key supplier last year. Those flows
were reinforced after President Donald Trump exempted Russian
goods from tariffs, as he pressed the Kremlin to pursue peace
talks with Ukraine.
“Russian product is going to flow more and more into the
Americas and from time to time into India, and that’s going to
open up a bit more of the European markets,” Fertiglobe Chief
Executive Officer Ahmed El-Hoshy said in a phone interview. The
US might end up “a bit of a Russian dumping ground,” he said.
Fertiglobe last year sold 1.6 million tons of urea in the
EU — about a quarter of its total output. That 19% increase over
2024 came through sales from its plants in Egypt and Algeria as
well as third-party products, making the bloc one of the
company’s three top markets.
Most of that volume is used as a plant nutrient, but
Fertiglobe also sells automotive-grade urea in EU, which is
injected into diesel engine exhaust systems to reduce nitrogen
oxide emissions, El-Hoshy said.
The EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism, which was
applied to nitrogen fertilizers this year, may also help
Fertiglobe. CBAM, which will effectively put a price on the
carbon emitted during the making of a product, will benefit
output from Fertiglobe’s facilities since they are newer and
less polluting than some European plants, El-Hoshy said.
Fertiglobe views India and Australia as its two other key
markets, served by its plant in Abu Dhabi. The company acquired
1.1 million tons per year of Wengfu Australia Pty Ltd.’s
distribution assets in Australia in October and may pursue
further consolidation in the future, El-Hoshy said. Australia is
attractive due to premium pricing and its counter-seasonal
agricultural cycle to the Northern Hemisphere, he added.
Fertiglobe is upbeat on the outlook for the urea market as
tight supply bolsters earnings for nutrient producers.
Demand in the Americas and Europe is strengthening as the
application season begins, while low inventories in India are
also supporting prices. China’s continued suspension of nitrogen
fertilizer exports to prioritize domestic farmers until at least
late in the second quarter is also supportive, El-Hoshy said.
Even when China resumes shipments, the market should absorb the
volumes as they are expected to stay limited, he added.
Fertilizer Jazz:
Weekly Review — Week 8, 2026 | Fertilizers, Agriculture, Gas & Shipping
The Indian urea tender attracted offers totaling 3.07 million tons, with L1 prices at $508 CFR for the West Coast and $512 CFR for the East Coast. A recent US Supreme Court decision cancelled tariffs imposed by the Presidential administration, although this is not the end of the story. Overall market activity remained slow amid global holiday disruptions.
Key highlights of the week:
‼️ Indian urea tender offers supported a bullish trend in the market. Geopolitical tensions, strong current demand from the US and expected buying interest from Europe continue to support producers’ sentiment.
🟰 Ammonium sulfate prices remained stable as trading activity paused during the holiday period in China and Brazil.
🌧️ Ammonium nitrate prices were also stable, with adverse weather conditions still keeping European farmers out of the fields.
🔜 Ammonia supply West of Suez is expected to increase in the second half of March, but for now market sentiment remains split between the East and the West.
🗿 Phosphate prices stabilized, while trading activity remained limited.
⬇️ Natural gas prices in both Europe and the US declined further as heating demand eased.
📈 Wheat futures surged on concerns over frost risks in the Black Sea region, while corn and soybean futures remained broadly stable amid an unchanged supply-demand balance.
⚓ Container shipping rates edged lower, although activity is expected to pick up after the Chinese New Year holidays. Bulk shipping activity also remained subdued because of the holiday season.
Morning. RCF L1 price discovery ($508cfr WC, $512cfr EC) on Fri saw Int'l paper offers showed caution, as Mar Nola urea values moved higher. Counters issued to all, acceptances already reported >1m tonnes. Mkts framed close of week:
AG
Mar $470//$490
Apr $450//$470
May $435/$460
cfr Brazil
Mar $472//$485
Apr $445//$467
May $430//$455
Egypt
Mar $480//$495
Apr $470//$495
Nola
Phys: Lh Mar//Fh Apr traded 4460. Mar $465, $468, $470. Apr $455
Paper:
Mar $460//$470 – traded $460/$465
Apr $440//$455
May $400//$425
Brazil Amsul
Feb $200//$220
Mar $205//$225
UAN Nola
Mar $340//$360
Apr $340//$360
DAP Nola
Feb $625//$640
Mar $620//$635
MAP Brazil
Mar $715/$730
Apr $715//$735
RCF Indian urea : acceptances heard over 800kt and still rising… <This message was edited>
Here is the direct translation of the text within the image, organized by the visual sections.
Top Title
Three True Dragons of the Phosphorus Chemical Industry
Left Sidebar (Three Major Conditions)
Ownership of high-grade phosphate mines
Production of high-value-added products
* Closely following New Energy and Semiconductor demand
Xingfa Group: 755 million tons of phosphate ore, grade exceeds the industry average, self-sufficiency rate reaches 80%. Domestic market share of electronic-grade phosphoric acid is 70%, successfully entered the high-end chip supply chain, with gross profit margins as high as 35%. Layout of 200,000-ton integrated lithium iron phosphate project, costs are 15% lower than the industry; directly supplies leading battery vehicle companies, with large profit margins in single business segments. Solid-state battery materials have entered the trial production stage; collaborating with the Chinese Academy of Sciences on black phosphorus materials to help fast-charging batteries achieve 500 kilometers in 10 minutes.
Hubei Yihua: 130 million tons of phosphate ore, supported by synthetic ammonia production capacity, phosphate ore self-sufficiency rate reaches 80%. Phosphate fertilizer costs are far lower than peers; collaborating with leading battery companies on lithium iron phosphate projects, with respectable expected profits after production; capacity utilization rate exceeds 90%. Gross profit margin of phosphate rock is nearly 60%, and the gross profit margin of phosphate fertilizer exceeds the industry average; traditional businesses are also profitable.
Batian Shares: Holds high-grade phosphate mines; earns significant money just by selling ore, with profit growth rate exceeding 4 times. Adopts 5G intelligent mining systems and AI-scheduled drone inspections; mining costs are 12% lower than peers, and production capacity has doubled year-on-year. The industrial chain extends from phosphate ore to compound fertilizers and soil remediation fertilizers; revenue has reached new highs, and gross profit margins remain at high levels.
Bottom Footer
On the supply side, the state controls production capacity and strictly regulates total extraction volumes; small and medium-sized enterprises are accelerating their exit. Phosphate ore prices continue to rise, and New Energy and Agriculture are rigid demands. <This message was edited>
The Baltic Dry Index rose 180% in 2023. Most institutional investors who "analyzed" dry bulk that year used that number to reach a conclusion. They all reached a different one. That's not an information problem. That's a methodology problem.
The BDI measures freight prices. Not shipowner returns.
A Capesize operating at $28,000/day with $9,000/day in opex, $35M in debt against a $52M vessel, has a completely different equity equation than one operating under identical freight conditions with zero debt and a $30M asset.
The correct causal chain is:
Freight rate → Net TCE → EBITDA per vessel → Debt service → Free cash flow to equity → Return on NAV
Skipping steps doesn't simplify the analysis. It means you're modeling a different asset than the one you think you're looking at.
Consider what this looks like in practice.
In the 2016–2020 cycle, the BDI averaged approximately 1,100. During that same period, a Capesize operator with zero leverage who bought fleet in 2016 generated equity returns above 25% annually. A comparable operator with 65% LTV entered covenant breach in 2019.
Same index. Opposite outcomes.
The BDI is an input variable. What you do with the capital structure around it determines the output.
Most dry bulk analysis stops at the first variable and never reaches the one that actually matters