Are we prepared for a world where we face a persistent oversupply of grain?
Agriculture is a technological and scientific industry, which has allowed the world to be fed, but is the industry sleepwalking to a major issue? Are we facing an issue for our grandchildren? Let's investigate.
The one thing that farmers and industry tend to focus on above all else is increased production. We have opened up large tracts of land around the world, we have increased our yields, and we produce more per hectare than we ever have.
Our industry advocates have been pushing to ensure that we produce enough grain to feed a growing world, aiming for a global population target of around 10 billion people.
This is a noble effort, although let's be honest, farming is a business, and anyone involved in it is there to make a crust, not feed the world.
In Australia and around the world, research agencies and industry bodies alike continue to chase higher grain output through investment in agronomic techniques, genetic tools, and climate-smart farming systems. Global grain demand continues to grow, particularly in parts of Africa and Southeast Asia.
But the longer-term picture is less clear.
The problem is that expectations are starting to shift; the peaks expected may not materialise at the levels previously expected, or may not be sustained for a prolonged period.
Demographers expect the world's population to peak sometime in the next fifty years.
After that, it's expected to decline slowly at first, and then more steeply in many regions.
Fertility rates are already below replacement level in much of the developed world, and even countries like China and India are seeing population plateaus or outright declines.
The chart below shows two of the central population projections to the end of this century, along with our grain production per capita.
This year, the world is expected to produce a record volume of grain per capita. What happens if we continue to aim for a huge population, only to overproduce?
An oversupply of grain can have significant economic consequences. When production consistently outpaces demand, prices tend to fall, squeezing farm margins and making it harder for growers to remain profitable.
Oversupply can also distort global trade flows, as exporters compete aggressively on price, sometimes triggering trade disputes or accusations of dumping.
The grain price around the world has barely kept up with inflation, with a rising population. If populations start to decline in 100 years from now, then we will be in a testing situation.
Therefore, if the demographers are correct, we need to find some solutions.
The supply is unlikely to be an issue in 100 years, as future technologies are expected to advance our yields further.
The demand will be an issue, and we need to find solutions, which luckily, there are a few.
Biofuels: We will still likely require oil-based fuels for some time, and increasing the use of biofuels from grains will increase the demand for grains and oilseeds.
Animal feeding: One of the best ways to add value to grains is by feeding them to animals and converting them into animal protein. In the Western world, the animal diet has largely peaked, but fortunately, we have a growing population in poorer parts of the world that could increase consumption.
Wealth growth: To increase demand for grains, it requires robust wealth growth globally. A poor population doesn't move into the next level of higher value food (meat); therefore, developing the wealth of the overall global population will result in higher demand for grains.
Land use change: There may be a requirement to move land out of agricultural production to other uses such as nature restoration or renewables. This should really be focused on marginal land.
It may seem a long way to the end of this century, but the reality is that we are potentially sleepwalking into a situation where, through the noble efforts of feeding the world, we inadvertently harm ourselves.
The world will likely have ample supplies, but what will the financial effect be on the grandchildren of today's farmers?
Morning. Int'l paper in search of further direction post India tender, with geopolitical uncertainty of concern too, but April Brazil found value in upper $450s late y'day, while Nola Urea values lost steam, as Mar phys/paper slipped under $465. Mkts framed:
AG weekly index = $494, Feb Avg =$487.13
Mar $480//$493
Apr $460//$478
May $445//$460
Cfr Brazil weekly index = $477.50, Feb Avg = $475.13
Mar $475//$483
April $453//$463 – traded $457
May $443//$455
Egypt weekly index = $489, Feb Avg = $496.25
Mar $480//$495
Apr $470//$490
Nola
Phys: Loaded traded $475; MAR $464, $463
Paper:
Mar $460//$465 – traded $468, $463
Apr $445//$460
May $400//$420
Brazil Amsul weekly index = $217.50, Feb Avg = $214.38
Mar $215//$230
UAN Nola weekly index = $332.50, Feb Avg = $328.75
Mar $340//$360
Apr $340//$360
DAP Nola weekly index = $616, Feb Avg = $625.13
Mar $620//$635 – traded $627
Apr $620//$630 – traded $625
MAP Brazil weekly index = $735, Feb Avg = $725
Mar $728/$745
Apr $725//$745
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures touched a 20-month peak on Thursday on an improving biofuel demand outlook, but closed lower on profit taking and worries about import purchases by China, analysts said.
Soybean and soyoil futures rallied early in the session on expectations for increased demand from biofuel makers after the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said on Wednesday that it will send its proposal for new biofuel blending volume mandates to the White House. News on Thursday that the U.S. government plans to reallocate at least 50% of exempted biofuel blending obligations to big refiners lent further support.
Questions about soybean demand from top importer China amid tariff uncertainty and ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's trip to the country this spring have kept the market on edge. Beijing on Wednesday warned that it would defend its interests if the U.S. insisted on advancing trade practices investigations or imposed further tariffs on its products.
The Department of Agriculture said net U.S. soybean export sales in the week ended February 19 totaled 407,100 metric tons, at the low end of trade estimates and the second lowest week of sales in since the fall harvest.
CBOT May soybeans settled 1-1/2 cents lower at $11.63-1/2 per bushel after peaking at $11.72-3/4 early in the session, the highest for a most-active contract since mid-2024.
CBOT May soyoil ended 1.09 cents higher at 61.76 cents per pound and set a contract high of 61.99 cents.
CBOT May soymeal ended 90 cents lower at $320.90 per short ton.
-UREA PRICES ARE HOLDING FIRM WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF A MAJOR INDIA PURCHASE
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES ARE INCREASING DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF CHINESE PRODUCTS
-POTASH PRICES ARE SEASONALLY INCREASING WITH BRAZIL TAKING THE LEAD
AMMONIA PRICES ARE DIVERGING: EAST OF SUEZ HAS AMPLE SUPPLY, WEST OF SUEZ IS UNDERPINNED BY LIMITED AVAILABILITY
UREA
All eyes were on the conclusion of the RCF India urea tender this week. Although it fell short of the desired 1.5 million MT, the outcome was a success for RCF securing 1.3 million MT. The volume was 463,200 MT for the East coast of India and 834,550 MT for the West coast of India. One of the reasons for the strong results was the participation of urea from producers in Egypt, Nigeria, Vietnam and Russia. Further, the L1 prices of USD 508 CFR and USD 512 CFR provided attractive netbacks across the board.
India has secured 10.85 million MT in the April-to-date period versus only 4.25 million MT Y/Y. The illusion of India becoming self-sufficient in urea supply has evaporated, highlighting the substantial importance India has on the world's urea supply, demand, and pricing.
European import activity has been subdued due to wet weather conditions and adjustments to CBAM rules and regulations. Brazil is outside its main buying season and NOLA/US activity has been hampered by massive snowstorms across most of the continent.
On the trading side Egypt conceded around USD 15/MT FOB, with new sales registered at around USD 490/MT FOB versus previous sales at USD 505/MT FOB—all for Europe. Long-haul options to the US are now being explored and prices are rumoured to be below USD 490/MT FOB. For the period January-November Egypt exported 2.9 million MT, up 13% year-over-year, with France taking 547 KT, a massive increase of 79%. Turkey received 13% less Y/Y at 463 KT.
Pupuk Indonesia held a sales tender this week resulting in a price in the USD 490s/MT FOB for one 45,000 MT lot with expectations that further cargoes could be sold at this price. This tender was only the 2nd time product has been offered since it January 19th tender. BFI of Brunei also held a sales tender this week and the rumoured FOB level is around the same as for the Pupuk Indonesia sale for the large lot and around the middle of USD 480s FOB for intra-Asia lots.
The official IRAN urea producer price was set at $428/t FOB this week, down $4/t on the prior week, with almost all output back online following the resumption of natural-gas supply to nitrogen manufacturers. Although the return of Iranian supply is positive for buyers, the spectre of US military intervention against the Iranian regime continues to loom large amid uncertainty about whether any strikes would directly or indirectly hamper the country's urea exports. Iran has a production capacity of 8.6 million MT annually with major exports to Turkey, Brazil and SE Asia.
Pardis Petrochemical Company (PPC), Khorasan Petrochemical Company (KHPC), Kermanshah Petrochemical Industries Company (KPIC), Shiraz Petrochemical Company (SPC), Lordegan Urea Fertilizer Company (LUFC) and Masjed Soleyman Petrochemical Industries (MIS) are all understood to be operating at full utilisation rates. Razi Petrochemical Company (RPC), meanwhile, is reportedly running at 50% for the time being.
Hengam Petrochemical Company has yet to commence output at its new facility due to a technical issue with its urea unit, production is slated to commence in the second half of March.
MIS closed a sales tender on 23 February offering 25,000 t (+/-5%) granular urea for late February-March movement from BIK. The producer was also offering 1,000-20,000 t of granular urea in 50kg bags on a FCA Masjed Soleyman City/FOB Iran basis. News of an award via both offerings is awaited.
Pardis will close a sales tender on 24 February offering 30,000-60,000 t (+/-10%) granular urea for first-half March shipment from Assaluyeh. The producer will take FOB bids at 12:00 hrs local time.
Although the return of Iranian supply is positive for buyers, the spectre of US military intervention against the Iranian regime continues to loom large amid uncertainty about whether any strikes would directly or indirectly hamper the country's urea exports.
The fundamentals of the international urea industry are firm supported by the absence of China and geopolitical factors. If the US implements heavy bombing in Iran only one’s imagination could predict what the urea price will be with the impending closure of the Hormuz Strait.
PHOSPHATES
Global DAP and MAP prices continued to increase this week, as an exceptionally tight supply outlook and high raw material prices offset seasonally slow demand and affordability concerns, driving bullish sentiment.
Russian MAP is reported by sources to have been sold to the Brazilian port of Rio Grande this week at $730pt cfr, though this has not been confirmed by the supplier or buyer.
Most market participants peg Brazil’s MAP import prices at $730pt cfr and one supplier to the market reported that it had received a bid at this level.
Moroccan MAP is strongly rumoured to have been sold to Brazil as high as $760pt cfr this week. However, any such deals have not been confirmed and were most likely concluded to a trader for onward sale to Brazil as opposed to an importer.
Brazil’s MAP import prices were previously assessed at $725pt cfr to reflect the latest confirmed deals to the market from a few weeks ago.
China’s DAP/MAP production slowed in December as DAP/MAP production declined 7.3% yr-on-yr in December 2025 to 2.24Mt, the lowest monthly rate since July 2023, according to industry data. The decline is down to the surge in sulphur costs.
Total P2O5 production across China in December dropped over 10% to 1.35Mt, with declines also reported on SSP production.
However, January through December DAP/MAP production in China reached 30.62Mt, a slight 0.4% rise from 30.50Mt in the full year 2024.
DAP production reached 1.05Mt in December, again the lowest monthly rate since July 2023, with full-year 2025 DAP production reaching 14.57Mt, down 4.0% from 15.18Mt in 2024.
MAP production reached 1.19Mt in December, down 5.5% yr-on-yr and the lowest level since September 2024. Still, full year 2025 MAP production reached 16.05Mt, up 4.8% from 15.32Mt in 2024.
China’s full-year 2024 DAP/MAP production reached 30.5Mt, up 11% yr-on-yr and up 20% on 2022 production.
Continued declines in DAP/MAP production rates are expected through the first quarter 2026 on the cost impact of higher sulphur prices, with countrywide DAP/MAP rates now indicated at roughly 50% of capacity.
Despite the export halt for DAP/MAP from China into May 2025, the country’s overall DAP/MAP/TSP/SSP/NP/NPK exports in the full year 2025 jumped 16% yr-on-yr to 12.78Mt from 10.99Mt. The total was the highest phosphate fertilizer exports from the market since the 13.97Mt exported in 2021.
Brazil was the largest recipient of Chinese phosphate fertilizers (37% of the total), with the traded volume up 74% to 4.75Mt from 2.74Mt in 2024 and just 1.84Mt in 2023. Volumes to India were up 7.4% at 845,398t with Bangladesh volumes up 6.6% at 871,387t.
December phosphate fertilizer exports from China reached 489,715t, down 31% yr-on-yr.
China’s January/February trade data is expected in late March.
Full-year 2025 DAP offtake in Pakistan dropped 16% yr-on-yr to 1.34Mt from 1.6Mt in 2024. This was down 39% from the 2.2Mt demand seen in 2020 and highlights just how unaffordable DAP has become for Pakistan’s farmers.
Pakistan’s calendar 2025 DAP imports reached just 620,000t, down 29% yr-on-yr from 876,000t and well below the 1.1-1.3Mt imported in each year from 2019 to 2021.
Total availability of DAP in Pakistan during January was 319,000t, consisting of 219,000t of opening stocks, 71,000t of imports, and 29,000t of domestic production. After consumption of 39,000t, the closing balance of stocks entering February was 279,000t. The February opening stock is up from 146,000t at the same time last year.
India’s DAP imports in January slumped 69% to 70,000t from 227,000t in January 2024. This followed an 18% yr-on-yr decline in December imports to 407,000t but April 2025 through January DAP imports were 6.02Mt, up 40% yr-on-yr from 4.31Mt.
India’s calendar Q1 DAP imports were at 487,000t from 467,000t in Q1 2024. This brought Jan-December 2025 imports to 6.43Mt, up from 4.53Mt in Jan-Dec 2024.
April 2024 through March 2025 DAP imports dropped 18% yr-on-yr to 4.57Mt from 5.57Mt. January through December 2024 imports reached 4.5Mt, down 30% from 6.4Mt in the full year 2023.
As is normal for this time, calendar Q1 2026 arrivals for India have slowed considerably as buyers await news on raw-materials costs and subsidy levels for the upcoming Kharif 2026 season. Volumes from OCP’s DAP contract for 2025/26 to India ended in late January, while Ma’aden is focusing its sales on other markets with higher netbacks.
Imports during calendar Q1 are still forecast to reach 450,000t, from 487,000t in the same period 2025. As a result, India’s 2025/26 fertilizer year DAP imports are forecast to reach 6.40Mt from 4.55Mt in the same period 2024/25.
MAP offers to Argentina are suggested as high as $760-770pt cfr this week although no deals have been reported above $760pt cfr.
Latest DAP sales to the market were reported three weeks ago at $750pt cfr with some participants pegging prices stable this week as a result.
DAP prices in Argentina have so far climbed an average of $60pt since the start of 2026 while MAP prices have jumped $70pt over the same period, primarily due to tight supply.
Argentina imported 1.19Mt DAP/MAP during the full calendar year of 2025, a 14% increase from 1.05Mt in 2024, according to Trade Data Monitor.
The country’s 2025 DAP imports fell 14% yr-on-yr to 240,969t including 57,026t from China and 56,155t from Saudi Arabia. Conversely, MAP imports climbed 24% yr-on-yr to 952,098t including 301,212t from Morocco, 285,732t from China, and 231,717t from Russia.
Argentina imported just 2,632t DAP/MAP in January, which has been a limited month in terms of imports to the country over recent years.
POTASH
Global MOP markets remain firm, with seasonal agricultural demand beginning to build across key regions after a long winter season. While spot liquidity is still uneven, tightening availability is shaping sentiment ahead of the second quarter. In India, the 180-day MOP contract remains unsettled. Market participants expect an agreement by the end of March. Suppliers are pushing for an increase from the existing $349/t CFR level, with indications going as high as $20/t, according to Belarusian suppliers. Many suppliers argue that global prices are firming up, and India seems to have lost its opportunity, unlike China which settled earlier. The outcome of this contract is widely seen as a benchmark for global price direction for the next quarter. In Brazil, MOP was assessed at $365-380/t CFR, with suppliers holding firm near the upper end of the range. Russian and Belarusian producers are sold out for March and are now taking orders for April, tightening prompt availability. Brazil is currently operating with minimal domestic stocks, and while farmer purchasing has been cautious due to weaker crop margins. Demand is expected to increase as soybean harvest progresses and second-crop corn development continues. Most first-quarter business was concluded below $400/t CFR, but market expectations are indicating that April June shipments could approach $400/t CFR if buying momentum improves.
In Southeast Asia, standard MOP was assessed at $360–390/t CFR and granular at $390- 410/t CFR. Thailand remains a focal point amid political uncertainty surrounding subsidy policy from the upcoming elections. In Indonesia, arrivals linked to earlier tenders from Pupuk Indonesia are ongoing, according to vessel line-up data. Floods in parts of the country have not materially disrupted fertilizer movement. In Malaysia, plantation demand has been steady but not aggressive, with smaller weekly requirements pushing up MOP demand. Palm oil prices near MYR 4,000/t have edged lower on lower export numbers and dwindling margins affecting affordability in the region. In Europe, MOP prices remain broadly stable, with limited spot deals reported. Cold weather has delayed field activity in parts of the region, but spring application demand is expected to strengthen in the coming weeks. Supply-demand conditions are balanced for Q1, however prices are expected to pick up in Q2.
In China, port wholesale MOP prices were assessed at RMB3,000-3,580/t FCA, with modest increases at the upper end of the range, due to tight availability. Buyers remain cautious, purchasing mainly on a short-term basis. Steady soybean arrivals from South America during February-April are supporting expectations of continued activity and is being monitored by market participants. Overall, the global MOP market is firming gradually. Seasonal agricultural demand is building, supplier availability is tightening in some regions, and the anticipated Indian contract settlement remains the key variable for second-quarter price direction.
AMMONIA
Ammonia trade continued to exhibit a clear East-West divergence this week. West of Suez, prices remained underpinned by constrained prompt availability, with limited supply keeping delivered levels in Northwest Europe broadly steady.
East of Suez, by contrast, remained weighed down by ample availability and weak spot demand, with Far East contract markets holding broadly steady but sentiment across the wider region was soft on comfortable term cover and subdued demand. In the Atlantic basin, attention centred on Nutrien, after the producer signalled in its 2026 guidance that it is assuming no production from Point Lisas and New Madrid, removing around 1.6 Mt of nitrogen sales volumes from its portfolio assumptions. This reinforces the view that the Trinidad gap is not short-lived and helps explain why West of Suez continues to feel the supply tightness, particularly with incremental US Gulf supply still uncertain and Gulf Coast Ammonia not expected to resume until mid-to-late March. East of Suez, the Middle East spread remained wide, with indications for markets continuing to ease as supply stays long, while interest from West of Suez has helped keep westbound offers supported. India is also reinforcing the softer East of Suez tone, with buyers increasingly eyeing up Indonesian tonnes as Southeast Asia values continue to trend lower and availability remains comfortable. However, with the turnaround window looming in India, any incremental spot buying is unlikely to be large enough to materially absorb the length building in Southeast Asia.
In Iran, reports that producers have been instructed to keep ammonia tanks no more than 30% full suggest that, unless merchant tonnes can be placed quickly, more ammonia could be pushed into downstream urea, reducing export availability, and potentially lending some support to Middle East pricing. In Asia, spot demand remained absent.
The Far East stayed well covered by term arrivals from the Middle East and Indonesia, limiting urgency to secure prompt cargoes. Southeast Asia remained more mixed, with indications split between higher ideas linked to reported Indonesian business and materially lower levels reflecting persistent length and limited demand, with participants watching, but not yet seeing, meaningful east-to-west flows
Hi gents – hope you are having a nice week!
Nexus Weekly Update
26/02/2026
The market has accelerated sharply this week in the Far East, led by a surge in fresh enquiry as the majority return to their desks. A clear increase in cargoes has met a tight tonnage list, shifting negotiating power firmly back toward owners. While the Baltic rates are only gradually reflecting the move, the physical market has stepped ahead with sentiment turning decisively positive. In South East Asia, the upward trend is also there and continues to gather pace. Strong coal flows, particularly Indonesia to India, are providing a solid demand base along with minerals from Australia on forward dates. The region feels well supported fundamentally, with tightening availability reinforcing the positive tone.
In the Middle East, rates have remained firm despite the seasonal Ramadan slowdown. Although headline volumes are slightly lower, the tonnage list has also been gradually thinning, preventing any meaningful easing. The region appears aligned with the broader Pacific dynamic, where tightening fundamentals are underpinning sentiment. Geopolitics is playing an increasingly visible role. With US/Iran tensions escalating, a growing number of owners are reluctant to trade into the Middle East. Many are only willing to position as far west as West Coast India, seeking to avoid both operational risk and sharply rising insurance premium costs for calling the region. This caution is set to tighten supply further in the coming weeks, adding to an already thinning tonnage list. With the Atlantic pulling ships west and Southern Africa absorbing more vessels, availability across the Indian Ocean, including EC India, continues to shrink. Ultramaxes are now effectively competing with strong ECSA volumes for positioning, and unless these flows ease, the market looks poised to grind higher.
Increased ice coverage in the Baltic has restricted prompt availability and contributed to notably stronger fixtures for vessels able to trade these areas. This has tightened effective supply and supported the wider Northern European market. Further south in the Mediterranean, swell and weather delays in Morocco amongst other countries have extended port stays and reduced prompt tonnage. The result has been firmer pockets of activity, with owners gaining confidence as this availability tightens.
In the US Gulf, the Handysize market continues to perform steadily on the back of consistent cargo flow. Demand remains healthy and owners have maintained a confident stance, with tonnage being absorbed at a reasonable pace. The Supramax segment has been more mixed and increasingly volatile, lacking the same clear momentum as the smaller sizes. Overall, the region feels active, and weather disruptions elsewhere in the Atlantic have played into owners’ favour by limiting incoming vessels and keeping effective tonnage counts low.
Further south, ECSA has surged again this week, with rates pushing up sharply as the tonnage list tightens further. Steady export volumes and improving fundamentals have caught several players off guard, leaving supply stretched and owners firmly in control. Positioning has become increasingly aggressive, with longer ballasts now being seen including vessels fixing from as far as India, West Africa tonnage counts are also particularly thin across both Handies and Supras, reinforcing the momentum. With cargo flow showing little sign of slowing and tonnage continuing to be drawn in from multiple regions, there is little to suggest that current firmness in ECSA will ease in the near term.
FFA strength has fed into the physical market, reinforcing owner confidence and reducing appetite to fix forward at lower levels. Bunker prices are currently holding around 511 USD pmt in Singapore and 508 USD in Gibraltar.
Morning. Thin activity on Int'l paper y'day after supportive reports of phys sales in $490s in S.East Asia, with values largely range-bound. In Nola, Mar Urea paper traded either side of $470 (in-line) before sellers stepped in toward end of day. Mkts framed:
AG
Mar $483//$490
Apr $465//$483
Mar $445//$460
Brazil
Mar $475//$483
April $455//$465
May $443//$458
Egypt
Mopco sold $490 – 10k – Mar loading
Mar $475//$495
Apr $470//$490
Nola
Phys: Lh Mar//Fh April $465, $466
Paper:
Mar $463//$468 – traded $470, $471, $469
Apr $450//$465
May $400//$425
Brazil Amsul
Mar $210//$225
UAN Nola
Mar $340//$360
Apr $340//$360
DAP Nola
Feb $625//$640
Mar $620//$635
MAP Brazil
Mar $725/$740
Apr $725//$745
LONDON (ICIS)–In Egypt, MOPCO last night sold 10,000 tonnes of granular urea for March loading at $490/tonne FOB for an open destination.
China Phosphate Domestic market:
Producers are losing up to 10-15 mil usd/month in order to supply cheap phosphates to the domestic market.
Short term Outlook firm, with a a huge correction once we near 800 CFR levels around the globe.
DAP: USD 745 CFR Karachi
DAP: USD 750 CFR Port Klang
Hexagon do swap docs via Malaysia in order to supply India (use Ethiopia on original docs)
India dos not require a manufacturers Cert of Origin
Fertilizer China Morning Reference 2026-2-26
Urea: The domestic urea market pushed upward yesterday, with most factory quotes reaching guidance price levels. Due to recovering downstream demand, some regional market prices showed premiums. Currently, both supply and demand are booming; however, considering guidance price restrictions and shifts in market sentiment, the market is expected to remain stable with minor fluctuations for now.
Synthetic Ammonia: The synthetic ammonia market showed mixed performance yesterday. Supply remains abundant, while downstream operations are slowly ramping up and shipments are gradually recovering. Low-price areas are reducing inventory and shipping, causing pressure on high-price demand regions. It is expected that high-price areas may see corrective drops in the short term, with distinct regionalization and adjustments across most areas.
Ammonium Chloride: The domestic ammonium chloride market saw active negotiations yesterday, with downstream manufacturers inquiring aggressively. Some new orders have been transacted, but Hou's process (combined soda) enterprises are mostly controlling orders with a strong reluctance to sell. With robust short-term demand, ammonium chloride prices are continuing their upward trend.
Ammonium Sulfate: The domestic ammonium sulfate market remained stable with slight increases yesterday. Domestic supply is relatively tight, and supported by high-level Indian urea tenders, the trading atmosphere is relatively active. However, terminal feedback has been below expectations, inhibiting high-level transaction sentiment. It is expected that the ammonium sulfate market will primarily see a stalemate with upward exploration in the short term.
Phosphate Fertilizer: The domestic Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) market remained stable yesterday with no price changes. Inquiries were mainly to gauge the market; downstream compound fertilizer enterprises maintain a wait-and-see attitude toward raw material procurement, resulting in few actual orders. Upstream raw materials are fluctuating within a narrow range, leading to limited market volatility. It is expected to maintain consolidation in the short term.
The domestic Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) market continued its consolidation trend yesterday. Cost support remains strong, and enterprises are primarily executing pending orders. Prices remain stable; market inquiries have increased, but transaction performance is lackluster. The market overall maintains a wait-and-see sentiment, and short-term consolidation is expected to continue.
Potash Fertilizer: The domestic potash market remains firm. Overall market circulation is still limited, but prices remain stable for now as downstream factory procurement enthusiasm is not high. Operating rates for Potassium Sulfate manufacturers remain low; factory quotes are firm, and actual transactions are mostly negotiated on a per-order basis.
Compound Fertilizer: Domestic compound fertilizer prices saw localized narrow upward adjustments yesterday, largely due to pressure from rising raw material costs. Enterprises have a strong intent to adjust prices; however, as downstream demand is still recovering, the market is prioritizing the digestion of low-priced goods. With rising temperatures, downstream receiving enthusiasm is good and market shipments have improved. Compound fertilizer prices are expected to remain firm in the short term.
China Domestic urea:
Market analysis for today.
The current domestic urea market situation shows that many enterprises have maintained their prices at the same level as the guidance price, resulting in temporary stability. The market, however, is influenced by sentiment, and industrial recovery is ongoing, causing a slowdown in the upward trend. Despite this, the market remains relatively strong, supported by manufacturer prices and expectations.
Mopco sold 10 kt for March loading at $490 /Fob Egypt for an open destination.
Wow turkey is a lot higher than I expected
LONDON (ICIS)–In southeast Asia, hearing awards in latest granular urea tenders at mid $490s/tonne FOB Brunei for a full cargo and high $490s/tonne FOB Indonesia.
On February 25, 2026, the total inventory of China’s urea enterprises stood at 1.176 million tons, an increase of 341,300 tons from the previous cycle (February 11) and a rise of 40.89% month-on-month. The main reasons for the significant increase in enterprise inventory during this period were: during the Spring Festival, logistics and shipments decreased, leading to a halt in the shipments of most urea factories. After the fourth day of the Chinese New Year, local automotive logistics began to resume, somewhat slowing down the upward trend in inventory. The provinces with reduced inventory during this period were Inner Mongolia and Yunnan. The provinces with increased inventory were Anhui, Gansu, Hainan, Hebei, Henan, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Ningxia, Qinghai, Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Sichuan, and Xinjiang.
Morning. AG paper remains supported as April traded $475 y'day, while Brazil values discounted in comparison, with price discovery on May at $450cfr. Mar Nola paper slipped back sub-$470, but tone still positive ahead of anticipated seasonal demand. Mkts framed:
AG
Mar $482//$496
Apr $465//$482 – traded $475
May $447//$460
cfr Brazil
Mar $472//$483
Apr $455//$465
May $445//$455 – traded $450
Egypt
Mar $480//$495
Apr $470//$490
Nola
Phys: Apr traded $462
Paper:
Mar $467//$470 – traded $472, $468
Apr $450//$465
May $405//$430
Brazil Amsul
Mar $210//$225
UAN Nola
Mar $340//$360
Apr $340//$360
DAP Nola
Feb $625//$640
Mar $620//$635
MAP Brazil
Mar $725/$737
Apr $717//$735