Direct Hedge – Daily Fertilizer Market Update
Tuesday, 17 February 2026
Paper markets remain cautious following the tender announcement, with buyers shy for international markets. In the US, Nola trade remains subdued but stable as participants await further clarity around India’s tender outcome.
Latest derivative levels
International Markets
Arab Gulf Urea (fob) – latest index 486 (+4.5)
– Feb: $475 / $490 →
– Mar: $460 / $475 →
– Apr: $430 / $460 →
– May: $410 / $450 →
Egypt Urea (fob) – latest index 506 (+13.5)
– Feb: $475 / $500 →
– Mar: $470 / $495 →
– Apr: $450 / $475 →
Brazil
Urea Brazil (cfr) – latest index 478 (+10.5)
– Feb: $465 / $475 →
– Mar: $460 / $480 →
– Apr: $440 / $470 →
– May: $430 / $450 →
Ammonium Sulphate Brazil (cfr) – latest index 215 (+7.5)
– Feb: $205 / $220 ↑
– Mar: $205 / $220 ↑
– Apr: $195 / $210 →
MAP Brazil (cfr) – latest index 725 (+10)
– Mar: $720 / $740 →
– Apr: $710 / $725 →
US Markets (NOLA)
NOLA Urea (paper)
– Feb: 455 / 465 →
– Mar: 442 / 448 →
– Apr: 428 / 435 →
– May: 380 / 395 →
NOLA DAP (paper)
– Feb: 625 / 635 →
– Mar: 625 / 635 →
– Apr: 625 / 635 →
– May: n/a / n/a →
NOLA UAN (paper)
– Feb: 325 / 330 →
– Mar: 330 / 345 →
– Apr: 330 / 345 →
– May: n/a / n/a →
Participants in RCF tender
1 Ameropa Asia
2 Aditya Birla Global Trading
3 Agricommodities
4 Agrifields
5 Chasemax International
6 Dreymoor
7 Fertiglobe Fertilizer Trading
8 Fertistream
9 Hexagon
10 Indagro
11 Indorama
12 Keytrade
13 Koch
14 Macrosource
15 Midgulf
16 Quest Group
17 Sabic
18 Samsung
19 Sun International
20 Valency
*Supply tight*
Limited spot availability reported.
<img src='https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1465101046530-73398c7f28ca' alt='Demo image' style='max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:8px;margin-top:10px;'>
*Analyst note*
Market sentiment: 9.
*Inventory update*
Levels at 18% capacity.
*Policy watch*
Export policy changes expected soon.
*Supply tight*
Limited spot availability reported.
*Demand surges*
Importers are seeking 26+ tons.
*Freight steady*
No major changes in rates.
*Demand surges*
Importers are seeking 39+ tons.
*Prices up*
Spot market sees a $25/mt increase.
<img src='https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1500534314209-a25ddb2bd429' alt='Demo image' style='max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:8px;margin-top:10px;'>
*Analyst note*
Market sentiment: 39.
:
– Market Price Fluctuations: NOP prices in Europe range from €900 to over €1,000, showing significant volatility amid competitive pressures.
– Chinese Export Stability: FOB prices for Chinese NOP around $670, but demand remains low, hindering market dynamics.
– SOP Price Increases: SOP prices in India rising from $590 to near $600 CFR, driven by seasonal demand and geopolitical factors.
– Logistics Improvements: Overcapacity in the container market expected, leading to stable or lower shipping costs, benefiting fertilizer trade.
– Tender Intelligence: Aggressive Chinese offers observed in Australian tenders, indicating strong competition and need for strategic monitoring.
– Technological Integration: Plans to use AI for note-taking and data integration discussed to enhance efficiency and decision-making processes.Notes:
📝 AI Note-Taking Tools Discussion:
• Discussion on AI note-taking tools (Firefly, Claude, ChatGPT) highlighting their capabilities for automating note-taking and data integration
• Focus on reducing manual work and improving workflow efficiency with consistent training inputs and CRM linkage
📈 Market Overview of NOP Prices:
• Unstable and varying prices for NOP in Europe, with wholesale prices ranging from sub 900 to over 1000 Euros
• Specific Chinese-origin sales around 910-936 USD CFR Spain
📉 Chinese FOB Price Stability:
• Chinese FOB price for NOP remains around 670 USD, stable but not showing upside
• Declining prices in Chile and India support a subdued market
🌏 Controlled Chinese Market Dynamics:
• Controlled Chinese market limits price benchmarking outside China
• Low interest in sustainable fertilizers in Asia contributes to unique market dynamics
💰 Firm Pricing Observed in DAP and MAP:
• Firm pricing in DAP, MAP, and technical MAP
• Domestic MAP trading around 940 USD/tonne in China; export prices from Brazil and Morocco above 1100 USD CFR
⚠️ Industrial Demand Erosion:
• Erosion of industrial demand and supply disruptions from Russia, Kazakhstan, and the Middle East persist
• Upward pressure in sulfur and SOP markets due to higher input costs and company strategies, notably from K+S and Uzbek/Egyptian producers
📊 SOP Market Outlook:
• Competitive pricing from Uzbek and Egyptian producers around 700 USD CFR Brazil and 600 USD CFR India
• Taiwanese producers expected to push prices higher post-Chinese New Year
🚢 Container Shipping Capacity Improvement:
• Expected improvement in container shipping capacity leading to more stable freight costs this year, favorable for market logistics
⚖️ CBAM Attitudes:
• Firm attitudes on CBAM with no suspension expected; negatively affects cost dynamics for those without allowances
📦 Speculation on Technical MAP Exports:
• Unlikely Chinese exports of technical MAP in May-August
• K+S Serbian TMAP facility shipping product to market starting end of the quarter, confirmed by trader reports
💼 Technical MAP Prices and Demand:
• Moroccan and Russian technical MAP prices circa 1140-1190 EUR CFR reported
• Steady demand in Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru; Indian markets flat due to off season
🇦🇺 Chinese NOP Tenders for Australia:
• Large Chinese NOP tenders for Australia with aggressive offers; outcomes pending, attributed to contacts like Bao Hang and O Laman
📈 Recent Trades Reported:
• SOP into Greece at 735-740 USD CFR, zinc sulfate into Spain at 847 USD CFR, mostly sourced from Chinese and Uzbek suppliers
Russia's Taman port damaged by Ukrainian drone strike
By Reuters
February 15, 20268:03 AM GMTUpdated February 15, 2026
MOSCOW, Feb 15 (Reuters) – Russia's Black Sea port of Taman, which handles oil products, grain, coal and commodities, has been damaged by a Ukrainian drone attack, the governor of Russia's Krasnodar region said on Sunday.
Two people were injured as an oil storage tank, warehouse and terminals took damage in Volna village, the site of Taman port, Veniamin Kondratyev said in a post on Telegram.
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Kondratyev said that more than 100 people were working to put out several fires at the port.
Separate strikes on the resort city of Sochi and the village of Yurovka, close to the seaside town of Anapa, had caused less significant damage, he added.
Ukraine's general staff said on Sunday that it had struck the port complex. Kyiv has resumed attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in recent days after a U.S.-brokered moratorium on such strikes expired.
Russia has repeatedly targeted energy and utility infrastructure in Ukraine, cutting off heating and electricity to hundreds of thousands of people in the midst of an unusually cold winter.
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Industry sources said that about 4.16 million metric tons of oil products were shipped through Taman last year.
Morning. Thin activity on Int'l paper y'day – Carnival in Brazil, Chinese New Year starting today, and many awaiting further mkt definition from India later this week. In Nola, loaded barges held value $462, March paper traded $448 (+$4), as TFI conference underway.
AG
Feb $480///$490
Mar $465//$470
Apr $450//$465
May $445//$458
cfr Brazil
Feb $470//$480
Mar $465//$472
Apr $452//$465
May $445//$460
Egypt
Feb $495//$510
Mar $480//$495
Apr $470//$495
Nola
Phys: Loaded $462
Paper:
Feb $456/$462
Mar $444//$450 – traded $448
Apr $430//$435
May $385//$410
Jun $385//$410
Brazil Amsul
Feb $200//$220
Mar $205//$225
UAN Nola
Mar $340//$360
Apr $340//$360
DAP Nola
Feb $625//$640
Mar $620//$635
MAP Brazil
Feb $710//$735
Mar $715/$730
Apr $715//$735
Jun/Jul $750 Offer