forecast India $910-930/t cfr, low end maybe traders which have long positions, and want to position market higher in N. Africa. This would be a classic Ameropa/Trammo strategy. So far no one has paid over $842/t fob egypt. Only Indian tax money will pay $900/t+++
Direct Hedge – Atualização Diária do Mercado de Fertilizantes
Terça-feira, 14 de abril de 2026
Os mercados estão se posicionando antes do fechamento do tender indiano de 2,5 milhões de toneladas esta semana, com produtores retendo ofertas enquanto compradores permanecem cautelosos. Nola ganhou força com abril negociando entre US$703–710/st e atingindo US$720 no final do dia. Os mercados internacionais também permanecem firmes, com vendedores retirando ofertas anteriores na faixa dos US$700s médios no Golfo Árabe. A oferta global segue restrita, com fluxos do Oriente Médio ainda interrompidos, deixando o material de Omã como a única fonte consistente. A direção do mercado agora depende do resultado do tender indiano, que deverá definir o próximo nível de preços.
Derivativos/Papel
Mercados Internacionais
Ureia Golfo Árabe (FOB) – último índice 800 (inalterado)
– Abr: US$760 / US$800 →
– Mai: US$750 / US$800 ↑
Ureia Egito (FOB) – último índice 836 (+16)
– Abr: US$800 / US$850 →
– Mai: US$750 / US$850 ↑
Brasil
Ureia Brasil (CFR) – último índice 770 (+5)
– Abr: US$730 / US$765 →
– Mai: US$700 / US$770 ↑
– Jun: US$600 / US$750 ↑
– Jul: US$600 / US$750 ↑
– Ago: US$600 / US$750 ↑
Sulfato de Amônio Brasil (CFR) – último índice 295 (inalterado)
– Abr: US$280 / US$300 →
– Mai: US$260 / US$300 ↑
– Jun: US$250 / US$290 ↑
MAP Brasil (CFR) – último índice 880 (+15)
– Abr: US$870 / US$900 →
– Mai: US$850 / US$900 →
Mercados EUA (NOLA)
Ureia NOLA (papel)
– Abr: 700 / 710 ↑
– Mai: 685 / 700 ↑
– Jun: 620 / 670 →
– Jul: 550 / 650 →
DAP NOLA (papel)
– Abr: 730 / 760 →
– Mai: 760 / 780 →
UAN NOLA (papel)
– Abr: 490 / 510 →
– Mai: 490 / 520 →
Físico: Se tiver interesse em fertilizantes físicos, contacte-nos.
Trabalhando atualmente: Nós iremos informá-lo.
China Morning Briefing – April 14, 2026
❤ Urea: The domestic urea market remained stable yesterday. There was no significant movement in the spot price. Companies’ quoted prices were mostly close to the guidance price. Currently, agricultural demand is in a lull period, and industrial downstream buyers are cautious. They maintain a rhythm of purchasing only as needed, with the added constraint of policy guidance prices. Both upward and downward movement in the market are restricted. Short-term market trends are expected to continue in a state of stalemate and consolidation.
❤Melamine: The domestic melamine market saw limited fluctuations yesterday. There were no significant positive developments in the short term, and the market’s overall tone remained weak. However, the attitudes of various companies varied, and the market’s trajectory remained unclear. Companies may adjust their strategies based on their own sales situations.
❤Synthesis of Ammonia: Since last weekend, the synthesis of ammonia market in major production regions has continued to rise. The main reasons for this include an increase in idled production facilities and the postponement of the resumption of operations by some ammonia producers, leading to increased supply constraints. Ammonia producers are highly motivated to maintain prices. However, given the high prices, it is essential to monitor adjustments in the production of affiliated enterprises, as there may still be opportunities for synthetic ammonia to experience further price increases despite short-term shipments.
❤Ammonium chloride: The domestic market for ammonium chloride operated smoothly yesterday. Associated alkali enterprises maintained prices and waited to see. Currently, shipments are well underway, new orders have been received generally, and fertilizer companies are not very enthusiastic about purchasing ammonium chloride. The primary demand is for essential needs. The ammonium chloride market may continue its consolidation trend in the short term.
❤Ammonium sulfate: The market for ammonium sulfate remained stable and saw shipments yesterday. Although the high international price of urea provided support, domestic sentiment has cooled, and there has been a significant number of sellers capitalizing on the opportunity to offload their stocks. The market prices have mostly seen minor adjustments. It is expected that the ammonium sulfate market will remain stagnant and narrowly adjusted in the short term.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: The domestic market for monoammonium phosphate remained stable over the past day. There have been no significant changes in prices. Costs remain high, and many factories have either suspended quotations or sales. The operating load of production facilities continues to decline, and demand is generally moderate. Essential small orders are being taken, and there is pressure on the purchase of expensive raw materials. The market will likely continue to be stable and cautious in the short term.
The domestic diammonium phosphate market saw a period of consolidation yesterday. The cost side continued to face pressure. Companies primarily shipped remaining orders pending dispatch. As the season for spring farming fertilizers draws to a close, demand gradually declined. Some market prices decreased, but transactions were relatively limited. Downstream entities generally continued to purchase based on demand. The market will likely remain in a state of consolidation in the short term.
❤Potash fertilizer: The domestic potash fertilizer market trend was relatively subdued yesterday. The available sources for sale held by traders were insufficient, and downstream factories primarily purchased based on demand. Market prices remained stable, with no significant fluctuations observed thus far. The factory price of Mannheim potassium sulfate (52% powder) typically ranges from 4,200 to 4,300 yuan/ton, and manufacturers face considerable production pressure.
❤Composite fertilizers: Supported by the cost of raw materials, companies are strongly inclined to maintain prices; however, enterprises in the midstream and downstream are cautious about high-level purchases. Coupled with the conclusion of the spring season and a decrease in essential demand, new orders in the market have been relatively slow to follow. It is expected that the short-term composite fertilizer market will primarily focus on processing earlier orders, with the market trend maintaining a high level of consolidation.
Morning. As talks in Islamabad over the w/end provided little assurances regarding conflict resolution in the M.East, IPL tender set to provide further mkt definition later this week. Paper mkts framed Fri close:
AG
Apr $780//$820
May $750//$760 – traded $756 Fri
_[May traded $760-$756 last week]_
Jun $680//$750
Cfr Brazil
Apr $755//$780
May $700//$740 – traded $705 (200t) Fri
_[May traded $718 l/w 5k]_
Jun $680//$735
Aug $625//$710
Egypt
Apr $820//$860
Brazil Amsul
Jun $275//$295
_[Jun traded $290-91 l/w]_
Nola
Paper:
Apr $690//$705
May $675//$690
Jun $625//$675
Jul $555//$600
UAN Nola
Apr $495//$520
May $500//$535
DAP Nola
Apr $720//$750
May $780//$800
June $700//$775
MAP Brazil
Apr $875//$915
Trump’s shot at the global economy… including fertilizers
Let’s cut through the noise.
After failing to reopen the Hormuz Strait through conventional means, the US turns to a naval blockade of Iran, a move that raises serious feasibility questions given Iran’s extensive coastline and alternative logistics routes.
Here’s why:
Energy is deeply embedded in fertilizer economics:
• Nitrogen (Urea/Ammonia): 60–80% of production cost = natural gas
• Phosphates (DAP/MAP): 30–40% tied to energy
• Even SSP: 15–25% exposed
Now add shipping:
• Fuel = 30–50% of freight cost
• In crisis scenarios → can exceed 60%
This creates a double shock:
1. Production costs surge
2. Freight costs spike
Result? A non-linear price escalation across global fertilizer markets.
And here’s the twist most miss:
Even a partial disruption, or simply prolonged uncertainty, is enough.
Markets don’t wait for war outcomes.
They price risk.
Winners:
• Low-cost producers outside the Gulf (e.g. North Africa, Russia)
Losers:
• Import-dependent markets (India, Brazil, Africa)
Bottom line:
This isn’t just an energy story.
It’s a food security story in the making.
Morning Magnus
Iranian producers announced $750/mt as official price this week.
Production
Pardis: Offline
Razi: Offline
Hengam: Ofline
Shiraz (Prilled Unit): offline
Shiraz (Granulat Unit): Pre commissioning
Lordegan: Pre commissioning
MIS: Pre commissioning
Kermanshah: Pre commissioning
Khorasan: Pre commissioning
Direct Hedge – Atualização Diária do Mercado de Fertilizantes
Segunda-feira, 13 de abril de 2026
O mercado permanece em modo de espera enquanto os participantes aguardam novos desenvolvimentos no Oriente Médio e maior clareza em relação ao recente tender indiano. A incerteza quanto aos fluxos de oferta e ao timing da demanda continua limitando a atividade, mantendo os participantes cautelosos.
Derivativos/Papel
Mercados Internacionais
Ureia Golfo Árabe (FOB) – último índice 800 (inalterado)
– Abr: US$760 / US$800 ↑
– Mai: US$740 / US$760 ↓
Ureia Egito (FOB) – último índice 836 (+16)
– Abr: US$800 / US$850 →
– Mai: US$750 / US$830 →
Brasil
Ureia Brasil (CFR) – último índice 770 (+5)
– Abr: US$730 / US$765 →
– Mai: US$700 / US$730 →
– Jun: US$600 / US$700 →
– Jul: US$600 / US$700 →
– Ago: US$600 / US$700 →
Sulfato de Amônio Brasil (CFR) – último índice 295 (inalterado)
– Abr: US$280 / US$290 →
– Mai: US$260 / US$285 →
– Jun: US$250 / US$285 →
MAP Brasil (CFR) – último índice 880 (+15)
– Abr: US$870 / US$900 →
– Mai: US$850 / US$900 →
Mercados EUA (NOLA)
Ureia NOLA (papel)
– Abr: 685 / 695 ↓
– Mai: 670 / 685 →
– Jun: 620 / 660 →
– Jul: 550 / 650 →
DAP NOLA (papel)
– Abr: 730 / 760 →
– Mai: 760 / 780 →
UAN NOLA (papel)
– Abr: 490 / 510 ↓
– Mai: 490 / 520 →
Físico: Se tiver interesse em fertilizantes físicos, contacte-nos.
Trabalhando atualmente: Nós iremos informá-lo.
China Morning Briefing – April 13, 2026
❤ Urea: Last week, the domestic urea market saw a narrow range of fluctuations. Agricultural demand gradually decreased, while industrial necessities provided support. Enterprise inventories remained low and fluctuated. Although the supply side was at an historically high level, low inventories combined with cost rigidity provided support. Under the dual constraints of price stabilization and supply and demand dynamics, the market’s potential for price changes was limited. Short-term market trends are expected to remain in a stalemate with moderate fluctuations.
❤Melamine: Last week, the domestic melamine market remained stable but showed signs of loosening. Short-term end-user companies adopted a cautious and wait-and-see attitude towards the market. There was still resistance to current prices, resulting in difficulties in securing new orders for enterprises and increasing sales pressure. It is expected that the melamine price may still face downward risks. Further attention will need to be paid to the outcome of new order placements by enterprises and the purchasing sentiments of downstream users.
❤Synthetic Ammonia: The synthetic ammonia market in major production regions held its prices last week. Following the resumption of operations by ammonia plants that had undergone earlier maintenance, the Shanxi market saw smoother sales after a price reduction. Subsequently, there was a price increase. Other major production regions experienced stable growth due to tight supply and demand conditions. As some ammonia production decreased and plants underwent maintenance, supply is expected to remain tight. It is anticipated that the price of synthetic ammonia will continue to rise steadily this week.
❤Ammonium chloride: The domestic market price of ammonium chloride remained stable last week. Fertilizer companies were not very enthusiastic about purchasing ammonium chloride; it was mainly driven by basic needs. Most caustic soda-ammonia enterprises were preparing to ship their products, but new orders were not well received. Short-term contracts were executed. Given the tightening supply in the future, the price of ammonium chloride is likely to remain strong.
❤Ammonium sulfate: The domestic market for ammonium sulfate remained stagnant and cautious last week, with local prices for coke-based products declining. The industry’s purchasing sentiment was influenced by news of negotiations between the United States and Iran, coupled with the current high level of mainstream prices, which increased the risk of a decline. However, considering that the international supply shortage situation remains unresolved, it is anticipated that the market for ammonium sulfate will continue its stagnant and narrow adjustment trend in the short term.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: Last week, the domestic market for monoammonium phosphate showed steady growth. In Hubei, the 55% powder was priced at 4,150 yuan per ton. Due to pressure on costs, many factories have suspended taking orders. The availability of market-circulating supplies is limited, and traders have raised their prices. The procurement of raw materials for downstream spring fertilizers is nearing completion, with only minimal essential purchases being made. The operating load of the monoammonium phosphate plant has decreased, and, coupled with cost support, it is expected to remain strong in the short term. There may still be room for the market to rise further.
Last week, the domestic market for diammonium phosphate showed strong performance. Raw material prices remained high, and pressure on costs continued unabated. Factory production loads decreased significantly, while grassroots demand was gradually being released. Downstream operations maintained a policy of purchasing only as needed, but there was still localized tightness in spot supply. Overall trading activity appeared subdued, and the market is expected to remain stable in the short term.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: The domestic phosphate fertilizer market exhibited a slight upward trend before stabilizing last week. The availability of chlorine-based phosphate fertilizer was relatively limited, but downstream factories were not actively purchasing raw materials. As a result, overall market transactions were somewhat stagnant. The operating rates of domestic sulfuric acid phosphate fertilizer plants were low, but pressure on costs was evident, and new orders were being finalized slowly.
❤Compound Fertilizer: The performance of domestic compound fertilizers last week was relatively strong. Prices in some major production regions continued to rise. As a reference, the mainstream factory price of 45% S (3*15) is around 3,350-3,550 yuan/ton. The raw material prices are still under pressure, and enterprises face significant challenges. They continue to maintain high prices, but it is difficult to transmit high prices to end consumers. As a result, new orders are limited, and the compound fertilizer market remains strong for the time being.
❤❤
𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮 will ban sulphuric acid exports from May through December this year. Neither smelter acid nor sulphur‑based acid can be exported from May, with the only exception being electronic‑grade sulphuric acid. China exported 4.6m t of sulphuric acid in 2025.
Another government reacting to trade disruptions and price hikes caused by the Middle East conflict is 𝗧𝘂𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘆. The country, which exported 215,000t of sulphur in 2025, has banned exports of most sulphur grades from April 7 to retain the commodity for domestic fertilizer production.
We are also aware of other countries where lobbying is underway to restrict exports of these strategic raw materials. More will likely follow.
Any loss in exports translates into a tighter market and higher prices, ultimately triggering demand destruction.
We have long discussed how the affordability of metal producers outweighs that of phosphate fertilizer and basic chemical producers. As a result, any further rise in sulphur and sulphuric acid prices puts increasing pressure on lower‑affordability consumers.
Demand destruction is already emerging. In 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘇𝗶𝗹, Mosaic is beginning the process of idling and demobilising its Araxá plant, removing around 250,000t/yr of sulphur consumption. This follows 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗼𝗰𝗰𝗼’s OCP stating that it is reducing operating rates by up to 30% during 2Q as it accelerates maintenance shutdowns amid rising input costs. Foskor has already stopped MAP granulation due to a lack of ammonia stocks in 𝗦𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮.
Direct Hedge – Daily Fertilizer Market Update
Friday, 10 April 2026
Markets remain highly sensitive following last week’s volatility, with ceasefire headlines briefly pressuring prices before a quick rebound as supply disruptions persist. Global supply remains constrained, with significant Middle East volumes still effectively locked out due to shipping restrictions and ongoing geopolitical risks. North African prices continue to push higher, while Nola has traded in a wide $675–730/st range, reflecting uncertainty and shifting sentiment. With India’s 2.5m tonne tender approaching, competition for limited supply is expected to intensify further. Urea Arab Gulf derivatives traded at 760 for May and Urea Brazil 718 for May.
Latest derivative levels
International Markets
Arab Gulf Urea (fob) – latest index 800 (unchanged)
– Apr: $770 / $800 ↑
– May: $750 / $770 →
Egypt Urea (fob) – latest index 836 (+16)
– Apr: $800 / $850 →
– May: $750 / $830 →
Brazil
Urea Brazil (cfr) – latest index 770 (+5)
– Apr: $730 / $765 →
– May: $700 / $730 →
– June: $600 / $700 →
– July: $600 / $700 →
– Aug: $600 / $700 →
Ammonium Sulphate Brazil (cfr) – latest index 295 (unchanged)
– Apr: $280 / $290 →
– May: $260 / $285 →
– June: $250 / $285 →
MAP Brazil (cfr) – latest index 880 (+15)
– Apr: $870 / $900 →
– May: $850 / $900 →
US Markets (NOLA)
NOLA Urea (paper)
– Apr: 690 / 705 →
– May: 670 / 695 →
– June: 620 / 675 →
– July: 550 / 650 →
NOLA DAP (paper)
– Apr: 730 / 760 →
– May: 760 / 780 →
NOLA UAN (paper)
– Apr: 490 / 525 →
– May: 490 / 525 →
China Morning Briefing – April 10, 2026
❤ Urea: The domestic urea market was largely stable yesterday. As market sentiment gradually weakened, the activity of industry participants was generally average. However, spot supplies in some regions remained tight. As a result, companies have no intention of relaxing their stance. Traders continue to charge higher prices. Although there is currently no room for price increases, demand can still support the stable operation of the price center.
❤Melamine: The melamine market in China continued its weak trend yesterday. Some companies have continued to expand their preferential policies or loosen their stance downward. Overall, there are no signs of an immediate improvement in the fundamentals of supply and demand. The market is characterized by cautious and观望 attitudes, with expectations of a steady downward trend in prices.
❤Synthetic ammonia: The main production regions’ synthetic ammonia market remained stable yesterday. Although the price decline had a negative impact on nearby markets, the main production regions’ market was not under pressure due to tight supply and demand, and prices were mostly stable. Currently, overall sentiment is strong, and prices are likely to continue to remain high.
❤Ammonium chloride: The domestic market for ammonium chloride was stable over the past day. The integrated alkali enterprises experienced smooth execution of pending shipments. New orders were generally received, but downstream compound fertilizer enterprises saw a slight decline in production. There was continued demand for ammonium chloride for inventory replenishment, but purchasing enthusiasm decreased. Additionally, some ammonium chloride facilities reduced production or ceased operations, providing support for current prices.
❤Ammonium sulfate: The market for ammonium sulfate was largely stagnant yesterday, with localized declines in high-temperature coking prices. The release of news regarding the US-Iran peace talks influenced domestic purchasing sentiment. Additionally, the previous high prices for the main product increased the risk of a decline. However, considering that the international supply shortage situation remains unresolved, it is anticipated that the market for ammonium sulfate will continue its stagnant and narrow adjustment trend in the short term.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: The domestic market for monoammonium phosphate was stable yesterday. Under pressure from costs, most factories have suspended quotations and sales. Traders remain confident, while downstream buyers are cautious and primarily focused on small, essential orders. With support from reduced costs and supply, the market is expected to maintain its strong performance in the short term.
The domestic diammonium phosphate market remained strong yesterday. Raw material prices remained high, and costs continued to face pressure. In some regions, due to tight availability of spot inventory, prices remained firm. Downstream operations focused on essential purchases, and market participants operated with caution. In the short term, the market is expected to continue its consolidation trend.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: The domestic phosphate fertilizer market has maintained a stable trend. However, despite the relatively high market prices, new orders have not been actively traded. Currently, the import price of 62% white phosphate is mostly between 3,150 to 3,500 yuan/ton, with individual negotiated deals. The operating rates of facilities producing sulfuric acid phosphate have slightly increased, but the prices have remained stable for the time being.
❤Compound fertilizers: The domestic market for compound fertilizers performed strongly yesterday. The prices of key raw materials remained high, providing continued support for the costs of compound fertilizers. Companies reduced their output; however, market imbalances and slow demand growth hindered new orders from materializing. In the short term, the market is expected to primarily absorb previous orders, and the overall trend is expected to remain stable.
[Urea] On April 9, the daily production of the urea industry was 214,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous working day; compared to the same period last year, it increased by 19,400 tons. The current operating rate is 90.89%, up 4.39% from 86.50% last year.
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures closed modestly higher on Thursday, supported by strength in soymeal and soyoil and inter-market spreading against corn and wheat, analysts said.
CBOT May soybeans settled up 3-1/4 cents, or 0.3%, at $11.65-1/4 per bushel.
CBOT May soymeal ended up $3.50, or 1.1%, at $317.60 per short ton and May soyoil rose 0.28 cent, or 0.4%, to finish at 67.70 cents per pound.
Soybeans drew light support from optimism that a mid-May meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could lead to renewed U.S. soybean export sales to China.
However, in a monthly crop supply/demand report released on Thursday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast of U.S. 2025/26 soybean exports to 1.540 billion bushels, down 35 million bushels from last month, and raised its estimate of the U.S. soybean crush by the same amount, to 2.610 billion bushels.
The USDA left its U.S. 2025/26 soybean ending stocks forecast at 350 million bushels, unchanged from last month and roughly in line with trade expectations.
The USDA also left its estimates of 2025/26 soybean production in Brazil and Argentina unchanged at 180 million and 48 million metric tons, respectively.
In its weekly export sales report, the USDA reported net sales of old-crop U.S. soybeans in the week to April 2 at 295,403 metric tons, toward the low end of trade expectations for 200,000 to 600,000 tons
-UREA PRICE DEVELOPMENT IS ANYONE’S GUESS WITH THE HORMUZ STRAIT AND THE UPCOMING INDIA TENDER SETTING THE PACE
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DUE TO LIMITED SUPPLY
-POTASH PRICES ARE INCREASING DUE TO INCREASED FREIGHT RATES AND TRANSACTIONS COSTS
-AMMONIA PRICES KEEP GOING UP WITH SUPPLY FROM THE MIDDLE EAST NON-EXISTENT
UREA
The instability of the US/Israel vs Iran/Lebanon conflict is so volatile that it is impossible to type fast enough to keep updated on what is going on. The current ceasefire appears broken, with Israel pounding Lebanon with missiles, and therefore, the opening of the Hormuz Strait is highly uncertain.
According to the latest count, 20 urea vessels are stuck in the waters of the Middle East; 5 are reportedly destined for the Australian market. Having sat there since the start of the war, questions are being raised about the quality of the highly hygroscopic urea. Ironically, the industry joke is that ammonium nitrate explosives might be needed to unload the urea from the ship upon arrival in Australia. The last Australia-bound urea vessel left the Middle East on the 28th of March and is expected to arrive in Newcastle on the 14th of April.
According to local industry members, the total fertilizer needed in Australia between January 1st and the end of June is 2.5 million MT, of which about 50% is secured. Obviously, this will significantly impact the agricultural growing season.
As of today, Iranian urea production is down due to missile hits. Urea exports from the Middle East, which account for 1 million MT per month, are unavailable due to the closure of the Hormuz Strait since the 28th of February. Chinese urea is unavailable due to export restrictions, and the Petronas unit at Bintulu is down because of an unexpected maintenance issue. Ukrainian drones reportedly struck Russian urea production facilities, but no details on the damage have been released. In total, there is a substantial amount of urea in the millions withdrawn from the market, and buyers are far and in between, except for the US, which appears to be somewhat busy preparing for the spring season.
The interesting part coming up is the 2.5 million MT urea tender in India, closing on the 15th of April. It begs massive speculation about the origin of that urea and its price.
The futures urea market is bouncing up and down like a rubber band in response to news from the White House.
Nonetheless, it is no wonder that the global urea market has virtually come to a standstill. The two major impacts are the situation with the Hormuz Strait and the India tender. Traders will likely view any participation in India as very high risk; securing 2.5 million MT for India will be like climbing Mount Everest in shorts and flip-flops.
Although subdued this week, firm price direction should emerge next week as IPL closes its latest purchase inquiry in India, with the result likely to prompt a new wave of upward momentum, provided the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.
PHOSPHATES
Spot prices for granular phosphate fertilizers worldwide climbed further this week amid exceptionally tight supply. DAP prices rose more than MAP following weeks of relative inactivity, as appetite in the key import market of India picked up amid greater certainty of government support for importers. One key development was in phosphoric acid pricing, as Coromandel and JPMC agreed a Q2 price for supply to India at $1,360/t P2O5 CFR (30 Days), up from $1,290/t in Q1. The increase was smaller than many had expected, given higher prices for downstream DAP and upstream sulfur, as India buyers' struggles sourcing ammonia are limiting demand and price upside.
The spot price assessment for DAP to India jumped to $865/t CFR flat this week from $ 790-805/t, based on the latest business, as the market began emerging from a prolonged lull, with buyers returning after receiving indications of government support. The assessment is at its highest level since August 2022, surpassing the 2025 peak of $810- 814/t CFR reached in July. The Department of Fertilizers' (DOF) Nutrient-Based Subsidy (NBS) announcement on 8 April has triggered renewed buying interest, with major Indian importers returning to the market, expecting the government to absorb price fluctuations.
So far this year, MAP markets have been firmer and more active than their DAP counterparts, primarily due to the absence of Indian importers. While DAP increases were generally larger this week, several MAP benchmarks also firmed further. Spot prices for MAP to Brazil were assessed up at $880-900/t CFR from $870-880/t, up 40% or $255/t year to date, and representing the highest level since early August 2022, though fresh business was lacking this week.
Overall demand in Brazil remains lackluster, with buyer appetite restrained amid affordability concerns. Poor affordability relative to downstream agricultural commodities, along with financial constraints and limited access to credit, are likely to continue restraining demand. Most market sources expect substantial destruction of phosphate demand this year. US prices also increased this week, though, unlike in previous weeks this year, DAP prices at NOLA climbed more than MAP. Still, US DAP and MAP prices have remained well below benchmarks in other key markets, leading some traders to gather tonnes for re-export cargoes in recent weeks. Some degree of phosphate demand destruction is also expected in the US. Despite poor affordability and expected demand destruction, tight availability is likely to continue pushing phosphates prices up.
The December news that China would temporarily halt DAP, MAP, and NP exports until August had already emboldened bulls in the market by creating a tight supply outlook, and the country last month widened export restrictions to include other fertilizers such as SSP and TSP. Morocco's OCP said last week it is bringing forward its maintenance schedule and expects a reduction of up to 30% in output for the second quarter of 2026, with some plants set to begin maintenance this week. Though the company has not confirmed, concerns over the supply of raw material sulfur are likely a key driver for the move, as a large share of sulfur supply comes through the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East also makes an earlier return by Chinese exporters less likely, as domestic prices are kept higher by high raw materials costs, as well as threatening supply from key origin Saudi Arabia, which has historically moved all phosphates exports through the Strait of Hormuz, and further increasing costs and reducing supply of raw materials for producers across the globe.
If vessel movements through the strait resume, there are currently six vessels waiting to exit, holding around 182,000 t DAP, 110,000 t MAP, and 27,000 t NPK, according to Kpler data. Maaden has indicated it plans to move supply to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast, though this would require thousands of trucks per cargo. The producer indicated it may do three to four cargoes per month by this method, which would still leave export volumes well below typical norms.
Prices were already expected to climb even higher than 2025's peaks, given China's severe export restrictions. The conflict in the Middle East is set to tighten the market further and push prices even higher over the coming weeks and months, with the impact on sulfur availability and prices also adding pressure on phosphates upwards.
POTASH
Despite a two-week ceasefire brokered between the US and Iran, potash suppliers insist that prices will not return to pre-war levels, citing persistently elevated freight costs, insurance premiums, and logistics expenses. Freight rates have risen 34% across key MOP trade routes, according to Bery Maritime. This has translated into price increases across all major regions over the past six weeks. Potash prices have posted single-digit gains globally over this period, according to CRU data.
Brazil has recorded the sharpest increase at 6.7%, followed by Southeast Asia at 4%, New Orleans at 3.3%, and Europe at 1.5% since the onset of the conflict. The key concern for the market remains whether crop prices can keep pace with rising fertilizer costs. In Brazil, farmer demand has remained resilient, with Q1 imports rising 20% year on year to 3.1 Mt. Farmers continue to view potash as the most affordable nutrient and are buying proactively, wary that prices could rise to unsustainable levels as seen with urea and phosphates. On the supply side, sentiment is firm. The $400/t CFR mark, originally expected to be reached by the end of April, has already been breached, with offers now emerging at $405/t CFR, though no deals have been confirmed at that level. Russian suppliers have indicated they expect Brazilian prices to reach $410/t CFR by May.
In Southeast Asia, prices continue to climb despite the region's traditional preference for standard MOP. Standard MOP is now assessed at $380-400/t CFR, while granular MOP has moved to $400-430/t CFR, supported by multiple granular transactions over the past month.
Palm oil prices, which had surged past MYR4,800/t, have since retreated to MYR4,600/t following the ceasefire announcement and prospects for broader regional peace. Higher palm oil prices typically support potash affordability for plantation operators, and recent import figures confirm that demand has remained healthy.
MOP prices are expected to rise marginally in the near term due to rising freight, insurance, and logistical costs.
AMMONIA
Global ammonia benchmarks extended their upward trajectory this week, though the announcement of a two-week US-Iran ceasefire on 7 April – conditional on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz – introduced a new layer of uncertainty rather than the clarity the market had been seeking. Vessels remain unable to transit, and many players have adopted a wait-and-see stance.
The supply picture east of Suez remains acutely constrained. Oman is the only Middle Eastern export outlet, with the Gas Ammon completing another voyage to India this week – its second such run since the end of March, when it carried the first Middle Eastern supply to move since the conflict began.
A separate Iranian-origin cargo on the Gas Fate is en route to Sikka, having gone through the Strait, though this appears to be an isolated movement rather than a sign of any broader resumption. Iranian production was taken offline again on 7 April following further strikes on power and feedstock infrastructure, though five of seven ammonia-urea producers are understood to be targeting a restart by 12 April.
Elsewhere east of Suez, the pool of available supply continues to narrow. Southeast Asian offer levels have approached $600/t FOB as demand from both India and East Asia intensifies, with Chinese export deals suspended, Australian supply offline, and Middle Eastern tonnes locked up.
South Korean spot offers are now heard at $650/t CFR and above, while India's weekly assessment climbed to $750-800/t CFR. The stress in the Indian market was starkly illustrated by FACT's latest tender outcome, which drew bids as high as $1,100/t CFR – well above prevailing market levels, with the higher offer subsequently withdrawn. In the Atlantic, Northwest European liquidity remains thin. A bid at $870/t CFR was reported this week but is understood to have been rejected. Supply options are limited – Algerian availability is tight, EBIC is sold out through June, and CBAM default values continue to constrain US-origin competitiveness in Europe. Trinidadian tonnes face competition from strong US domestic demand, though flows into the region continue. The US Gulf itself is showing signs of increased activity. GCA loaded its first
export cargo since January, with Navigator Phoenix departing for Heroya on 5 April. Beaumont also loaded a second export cargo this week, while CF Donaldsonville saw two liftings. Whether this translates into meaningful relief for global supply, in part, depends on how much supply will be absorbed domestically, where ammonia's relative valuation against urea remains favourable.
Global ammonia benchmarks are expected to remain elevated in the near term, with direction increasingly dependent on whether and how quickly the Strait reopens in a commercially viable way
Hi gents – hope all is well!
Nexus Weekly Update
09/04/26
In the Far East and South East Asia, it has been a firm week, with a surge in fresh cargo enquiries driving rates sharply higher. That said, caution remains when rating forward cargoes, as bunker prices continue to be highly volatile. The primary driver of this firmness has been a large increase in nickel ore cargoes, which have absorbed a significant amount of tonnage in the region. In addition, activity has picked up across other commodities, including grains and cement. The region is expected to maintain this positive momentum, as only a small portion of the recent increase in cargo appears linked to developments in the Middle East ceasefire. While that situation remains fragile, its impact on cargo enquiry is likely to be limited, with the greater influence expected to be on bunker prices.
All eyes remain on the Middle East, with a ceasefire agreed this week alongside the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the situation quickly reversed following the bombing of southern Lebanon, prompting Iran to declare the Strait closed once again. In practice, a two-week window would only be sufficient for vessels to exit the Gulf. Even so, the majority of vessels remain stationary, as security risks outweigh uncertain diplomatic assurances. Uncertainty still reigns over the area. The timeframe is also insufficient to arrange inbound cargoes, which would risk becoming stranded should conditions deteriorate again. The South African market is relatively flat, though with a firmer undertone, expected to follow the recent push seen across the Indian Ocean and Pacific. Some stronger fixtures have been reported, with vessels ballasting down from WC India and Oman into the region, driven in part by a lack of ballasters from EC India, with more iron ore cargoes keeping local tonnage occupied.
The Mediterranean market remains flat this week with limited fresh enquiry, including out of the Black Sea where grain houses have been notably quiet. Tonnage is building up towards the end of April across the Med, which is expected to keep pressure on rates. Older Russian callers in the Black Sea are showing flexibility, discounting into WMed/Cont to position for stronger Baltic/Russia fronthaul opportunities in early May. The Continent remains soft, with very little fresh enquiry at present for both handy/supra sizes, though some pickup in grain flow is anticipated in the coming weeks.
Rates in ECSA remain broadly flat, with cargo volumes falling short of initial harvest expectations. A shift in Supramax trends has seen more cargoes heading to the Med rather than large fronthauls is evident, driven by bunker volatility impacting long-haul economics. In WAFR, the market has softened post-Easter with activity slow to return. Tonnage is building against limited fresh enquiry, putting pressure on rates, and with weaker levels also seen from ECSA, vessels in WAFR are adjusting expectations accordingly. Overall sentiment remains soft, with limited near term visibility on fresh cargo flow.
The Panama Canal is becoming an increasing issue for owners to navigate, impacting their willingness to rate cargoes via Panama and driving freight rates higher. Owners are currently reporting over 100 vessels waiting for transit slots, with the effects being felt particularly in the dry bulk sector. There are three main reasons for the congestion. Firstly, pre-planned maintenance between 1-9 April. Secondly, an explosion that has further disrupted transit. Thirdly, strong demand from the tanker market, where elevated freight rates have led tankers to consistently outbid other segments for priority transit. This has increased both waiting times and costs for dry bulk vessels. It remains unclear when the congestion will ease. Should the ceasefire hold and oil flows normalise, there may be a gradual return to more typical transit times and costs through the Canal.
Bunker availability has improved, with stems fixing 10+ days forward now being covered at more “normalised” levels. However, prompt enquiries continue to attract a significant premium, with tightness still evident in the spot window. Prices are currently around USD 780 pmt in Singapore, USD 765 in Fujairah and USD 760 in Gibraltar. Brent remains volatile and is pushing higher again amid fading confidence in the Trump-led ceasefire and uncertainty around Hormuz transits, which is likely to keep underlying support on bunker levels in the near term.