May 6, 2026, the total inventory of China’s urea enterprises stood at 465,000 tons, an increase of 21,200 tons compared to the previous cycle, representing a month-over-month increase of 4.31%. During this cycle, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises saw a slight increase. Affected by the festive atmosphere during the May Day holiday, market transactions slowed down, and downstream demand gradually weakened. Some urea factories began to accumulate small amounts of inventory. Factories that previously faced tight supply of earlier shipments now have shorter lead times for dispatching their products. The provinces with increased inventory for enterprises include Anhui, Gansu, Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Shanxi, Sichuan, and Chongqing. The provinces with decreased inventory for enterprises include Heilongjiang, Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Xinjiang.
May 6, the urea industry produced 225,100 tons per day, an increase of 15,000 tons from the previous working day (April 30). This represents an increase of 23,500 tons compared to the same period last year. The current operating rate is 94.33%, up by 6.67% from 87.66% last year.
SOCAR had announced the tender per sales of Azerbaijan origin Granular Urea Grade-B with the delivery period during SH May, 2026-FH June, 2026.
In the tender were mentioned 30,000 (thirty thousand) metric tons +/- 10% in Seller’s option (In one or multiple lots. Subject to the further confirmation by the Seller) in bulk on FOB Batumi, Georgia basis and 20,000 (twenty thousand) metric tons +/- 10% in Seller’s option (In one or multiple lots. Subject to the further confirmation by the Seller) in big bags on FOB Trabzon, Türkiye basis. CIF/CFR basis per actual freight costs.
Tender will be closed on 08 May, 2026.
LONDON (ICIS)– In Malaysia, 6,000 tonnes of granular urea has been sold at $790/tonne FOB, loading in May to southeast Asia.
LONDON (ICIS)–Front-month Brent crude oil futures slipped to a low of $106.05/barrel in early Asia trade on 6 May, from an overnight close of $109.87/barrel as US President Donald Trump signalled potential progress in peace talks with Iran. Front-month Netherlands’ TTF paper prices in early Asia trade ranged around the equivalent of $15.67-16.00/MMBtu on 6 May. The benchmark ICIS TTF was last assessed on 5 May at $16.093/MMBtu.
The French AN market is currently defined by early new season positioning and limited availability. LAT set its latest price at €495/t cpt bulk for May/June delivery, but volumes are extremely tight, with some buyers restricted to just two to four truckloads. This move is viewed by some distributors as a tactical manoeuvre to finalize prices for April sales that were previously made on a revisable basis. Yara’s pricing remains less certain; while late April offers hovered around €525–530/t, private discussions suggest a potential new season starting point near €515/t. Both majors struggled with April volumes due to dry weather, leading to some consignment-style sales. Until more volume and clearer guidance emerge from Yara, many distributors are hesitant to launch full retail campaigns at the €495/t level.
Regarding CAN 27N, sentiment in France remains quiet concerning LAT’s specific pricing. Indications for CAN are currently €430–440/t cpt bulk, though there is market chatter that the new season could open closer to €420/t. For context, the recent AN price of €495/t mathematically equates to roughly €399/t for a 27N product. In the Benelux region, prices have softened slightly, with CAN moving down to €440/t fca bulk warehouse. While producers are offering retailers €440/t cpt, distributors are targeting a maximum of €430/t cif bulk barge.
The urea market remains weak and fragmented, with prices ranging widely from €720/t to €760/t fca. While primary suppliers hold at the higher end, smaller retailers fearing a further price drop are offloading stock as low as €720–730/t. In the import sector, Litfert has entered the new season market for imported prilled AN at approximately €490/t fca bagged port. This price point historically aligns closely with the domestic granular AN 33.5 starting price.
From a competitive standpoint, AN currently holds a significant pricing advantage over urea on a Unit N basis. When applying a 10% efficiency handicap to Ureic Nitrogen, AN 33.5 stands at €14.78/Unit N, while urea ranges between €16.96 and €18.65/Unit N. This makes urea 15% to 26% more expensive than AN. Furthermore, with ammonium sulphate priced at €390–410/t cpt, urea and sulphate blends will likely struggle to compete with Nitrate and Sulphur fertilizers in the upcoming season.
Sulphur Market Analysis
5 May 2026
Price Indications and Current Trends
The market currently reflects a firm to higher trend for sulphur as the structural deficit persists. As of 30 April, the FOB Middle East price is indicated at $740, while the CFR China price stands at $875. Meanwhile, sulphuric acid prices are moving sharply higher, driven primarily by a significant contraction in global supply.
—
Market Condition
A deepening crisis in the phosphate fertilizer sector now indirectly drives the sulphur market. Supply chain disruptions have removed key outlets and balancing mechanisms, resulting in a tightening feedback loop between sulphur availability and downstream acid demand. These factors reinforce already constrained market conditions, evolving the situation beyond an isolated sulphur issue into a broader industrial supply shock.
Core Supply Disruptions
Two major forces continue to dominate the market. First, a breakdown in Middle East logistics and continued disruption to Gulf exports restricts access to primary sulphur supply, which in turn limits feedstock availability for global acid production. Second, a significant policy shift in China has removed sulphuric acid exports from the market. This move has fundamentally altered global trade flows by eliminating a major supply source and forcing import-dependent regions into direct competition for limited material. Together, these factors have removed both upstream supply and downstream flexibility from the system.
Fertilizer Linkage
The most acute impact is visible in phosphate fertilizer markets where sulphuric acid serves as a critical input. These supply shortages drive rapid price escalation across key products. Consequently, producers face rising input costs alongside limited access to raw materials. Production cuts are becoming more widespread as manufacturers implement allocation strategies to manage constrained acid availability. This reinforces upward pressure on sulphur and acid pricing while simultaneously reducing overall system output.
Regional Impact
Import-dependent regions are under increasing strain due to these shifts. India and Africa face acute supply shortages during critical agricultural cycles, and rising costs now threaten planting schedules. Southeast Asia is experiencing tightening availability and higher input costs across both the fertilizer and industrial sectors. Similarly, Latin America is seeing rapid price escalation and reduced accessibility, particularly in markets that rely heavily on imported acid. The result is a widening gap between supply and demand, with regional imbalances becoming more pronounced.
Industrial Spillover and Forward Outlook
The fertilizer crisis feeds directly back into the broader sulphur market. Reduced acid availability constrains operations across multiple sectors, and elevated prices increase the cost base for industrial users. This interconnected pressure amplifies volatility and reinforces the structural nature of the current supply deficit.
The imbalance is expected to persist through 2026 because very little new capacity is coming online in the near term. Structural constraints across both sulphur and sulphuric acid supply chains will continue to drive tight market conditions. Even if geopolitical conditions stabilize, the lag in capacity expansion suggests a period of prolonged disruption.
Closing View
The sulphur market is now firmly embedded within a broader fertilizer and industrial supply crisis. Because key supply channels remain restricted and downstream demand is staying inelastic, the market will continue to be driven by scarcity, policy, and logistical constraints rather than traditional fundamentals.
May Day Holiday and UK Bank holiday, markets have been subdued.
Today SOCAR had announced the tender per sales of Azerbaijan origin Granular Urea Grade-B with the delivery period during SH May, 2026-FH June, 2026.
In the tender were mentioned 30,000 (thirty thousand) metric tons +/- 10% in Seller’s option (In one or multiple lots. Subject to the further confirmation by the Seller) in bulk on FOB Batumi, Georgia basis and 20,000 (twenty thousand) metric tons +/- 10% in Seller’s option (In one or multiple lots. Subject to the further confirmation by the Seller) in big bags on FOB Trabzon, Türkiye basis. CIF/CFR basis per actual freight costs.
Tender will be closed on 08 May, 2026.
Good day – Limited pockets of demand and restricted supply keeping many still sidelined to start the week. Mts framed:
AG
May $750//$800
Jun $645//$685 – traded $665
Cfr Brazil
May $717//$732
Jun $670//$720
Jul $648//$690
Aug $610//$690
cfr Brazil AS
May $255//$275
Jun $255//$270
Nola Urea
Paper:
May $627//$640
Jun $570//$585
Jul $560//$590
Q3 $550//$585
UAN Nola
May $500//$535
DAP Nola
May $735//$760
June $700//$765
MAP Brazil
Jun $875//$920
Q3 $875//$935
London Commodity Brokers
Sulphur Market Analysis
5th May 2026
Price Indications
FOB Middle East: $740
CFR China 30 Apr: $875
Sulphur: Firm to higher (structural deficit persists)
Sulphuric Acid: Sharply higher (significant supply contraction driving market)
Market Condition
The sulphur market is now being driven indirectly by a deepening crisis in the phosphate fertiliser sector, where supply chain disruptions have removed key outlets and balancing mechanisms. The result is a tightening feedback loop between sulphur availability and downstream acid demand, reinforcing already constrained market conditions.
This is no longer an isolated sulphur issue, but part of a broader industrial supply shock.
Core Supply Disruptions
Two major forces continue to dominate the market:
Middle East Logistics Breakdown: The continued disruption to Gulf exports is restricting access to primary sulphur supply, limiting feedstock availability for acid production globally.
China’s Policy Shift: The removal of Chinese sulphuric acid exports has fundamentally altered global trade flows, eliminating a major source of supply and forcing import-dependent regions into direct competition for limited material.
Together, these factors have removed both upstream supply and downstream flexibility from the system.
Fertiliser Linkage
The most acute impact is now visible in phosphate fertiliser markets, where sulphuric acid is a critical input. Supply shortages are driving rapid price escalation across key fertiliser products, with producers facing rising input costs and limited access to raw materials.
Production cuts are becoming more widespread as manufacturers implement allocation strategies to manage constrained acid availability. This is reinforcing the upward pressure on sulphur and acid pricing, while simultaneously reducing overall system output.
Regional Impact
Import-dependent regions are under increasing strain:
India and Africa: Facing acute supply shortages during critical agricultural cycles, with rising costs threatening planting schedules.
Southeast Asia: Experiencing tightening availability and higher input costs across both fertiliser and industrial sectors.
Latin America: Seeing rapid price escalation and reduced accessibility, particularly in markets reliant on imported acid.
The result is a widening gap between supply and demand, with regional imbalances becoming more pronounced.
Industrial Spillover
The fertiliser crisis is feeding directly back into the broader sulphur market. Reduced acid availability is constraining operations across multiple sectors, while elevated prices are increasing the cost base for industrial users.
This interconnected pressure is amplifying volatility and reinforcing the structural nature of the current supply deficit.
Forward Outlook
The imbalance is expected to persist through 2026, with limited new capacity coming online in the near term. Structural constraints across both sulphur and sulphuric acid supply chains will continue to drive tight market conditions.
Even under stable geopolitical conditions, the lag in capacity expansion suggests prolonged disruption.
Closing View
The sulphur market is now firmly embedded within a broader fertiliser and industrial supply crisis. With key supply channels restricted and downstream demand remaining inelastic, the market will continue to be driven by scarcity, policy, and logistical constraints rather than traditional fundamentals.
In Egypt, the government has imposed an export duty on all nitrogen fertilizer exports including urea for three months, set at $90/tonne or its equivalent in Egyptian pounds, effective 4 May.
Morning. Int'l paper mkts drifting last week, with activity slow amidst thin demand. Fh Nola urea phys barges prices firmed to end the week. There is some optimism and signs of renewed demand in the corn belt in the coming weeks
*AG*
May $750//$815M
Jun $650//$735
*Cfr Brazil*
May $720//$732
Jun $670//$720
Jul $648//$680
Aug $610//$690
*cfr Brazil AS*
May $255//$275
Jun $255//$270
*FOB China AS*
May $260//$300
Nola
Paper:
May $627//$640
Jun $580//$595
Jul $560//$590
Q3 $550//$590
UAN Nola
May $500//$535
DAP Nola
May $735//$760
June $700//$765
MAP Brazil
Jun $875//$920
Jul $920 Offer
In the US, the Tampa ammonia contract price has been settled for May at $825/tonne CFR, up $50/tonne from $775/tonne CFR for April.
NCIC is offering the following:
<strong>30,000t of DAP — it sold 20,000t at up to $880/t fob in its 20 April tender</strong>
10,000t of TSP — it sold 10,000t at up to $695/t fob in its 20 April tender
<strong>30,000t of SSP — it sold 20,000t at $340-375/t fob Ain Sokhna in its 27 April tender</strong>
25,000t of urea — it sold 10,000t at up to $852/t fob Ain Sokhna in its 27 April tender
<strong>1,000t of water-soluble SOP — it sold 1,000t at up to $705/t bagged ex-works in its 20 April tender</strong>