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UREA PRICES APPEAR TO BE SOFTENING WITH AFFORDABILITY, SEASONALITY, AND LACK OF MAY AVAILABILITY HOLDING PRICES AT RANSOM

-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE MARKET ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WEAK DUE TO AFFORDABILITY ISSUES IN MAJOR MARKETS

-POTASH PRICES ARE HOLDING ON CFR BASIS DUE TO INCREASED FREIGHTS

-AMMONIA PRICES ARE BULLISH ON THE BACK OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ CLOSURE PLUS THE PAU FACILITY IN INDONESIA IS SOON GOING DOWN FOR FIVE WEEKS OF MAINTENANCE

UREA

Following on from the India tender, the global urea market appears to have gone into hibernation. Activity has been slow to non-existent in most major markets. The market is on a softer footing, as a combination of affordability challenges, seasonality, and available May shipments has weighed on global urea values. OR, is this the start of a price-depreciation correction, or simply a holding pattern waiting for another India tender?

Producers are trying to entice traders to engage, but are finding muted interest. May cargoes are available in Algeria, and prices are offered at USD 850 PMT with no takers at this time of writing. Brazilian buyers are inactive despite the Nigerian product being offered at USD 770 PMT CFR, and the North American and European import markets are soon ending. Scattered inquiries have been noticed in Canada, South Africa, and New Zealand, with regular contract buying from the Middle East barred due to the closure of the Hormuz Strait.

Egyptian urea exports fell to a five-month low of 243,000 MT in January, down 36% year on year. The latest sale reported is 5,000 MT by MOPCO at USD 850 PMT FOB, which is around USD 33 PMT lower than the previous conclusion carried out on April 23rd. Middle East producers are still prevented from taking part, except for OMIFCO in the southern part of Oman, which avoids the Strait of Hormuz.

Although the major buying season is starting in both Australia and Thailand, import volumes are expected to be substantially lower than in previous periods.

In other news, it appears that Petronas is signing a long-term urea off-take contract with Pupuk Kaltim in Indonesia for 300,000 MT, in a reciprocal arrangement that returns urea from both Sipitang and Bontang to Indonesian markets across the border. This deal is separate from the 250,000 MT Incitec Pivot off-take agreement. In total, the more of these deals done, the less product will be available to the trading community. Indonesia has annually exported between 1.4 and 1.8 million MT of urea. Based on last year's exports of 1.7 million MT, these deals would leave only 1.1 million MT available for third-party trading.

Another issue looming is El Niño, and according to the Philippine weather bureau, the likelihood of it happening is between 62-85%. This would put additional strain on farmers in the Philippines, who are already struggling to make money from rice production amid imports of lower-priced rice from Vietnam and Thailand. It is expected that the Philippines will import up to 4 million MT of rice in 2026.

Iran has put a price tag of granular urea at USD 770 PMT FOB, despite the US blockade of Iranian ships trying to leave Iranian ports.

Chinese producers are still not allowed to export urea or any other fertilizers except ammonium sulfate. It also appears that CIQ approval for the sale of any fertilizers to India, including ammonia, will face an uphill battle due to political tensions between China and India.

In all, there are issues and problems to be solved in every corner of the world. Until the Strait of Hormuz is opened, the world's farmers and food producers will continue to face difficulties. And if India decides not to enter the market with a new tender, urea prices could easily crack for lack of buying support and fear of holding high-priced inventories.

PHOSPHATES

While there were further increases in some published DAP/MAP price assessments this week, market activity was limited, as poor affordability limited buyer appetite at current prices, while a lack of availability and tight, high-priced raw materials left suppliers bullish. Unprecedented market conditions have led to unprecedented actions, as India's IPL late last week floated a tender for the import of 1.2 Mt bulk DAP and 0.4 Mt bulk granular TSP, subsequently extending the closing date to 7 May from 4 May. India does not typically issue phosphate fertilizer deals of this scale but may have been moved to do so by a lack of progress in direct offtake negotiations with Morocco's OCP, possibly encouraged by the large volume secured on the latest urea tender. While traders are holding some DAP cargoes for offer to the Indian market, buyers are unlikely to engage until after the tender, leaving the key DAP import market flat at $865/t CFR.

Fresh MAP spot sales to Brazil include 10,000 MT of Russian MAP sold to Fertipar, but otherwise, sales are lacking so far this market week, with supply to the market still heavily restricted and demand weak at current prices.
Some of the latest MAP offers to Brazil are reported to range from $950pt cfr to $1,000pt cfr, including from OCP at the upper end, with no deals reported at these prices.
Further reports this week suggest recent Russian MAP sales concluded at $880-900pt cfr, with at least two Brazilian importers said to have purchased at the upper end of this range. Still, specific details have yet to be confirmed by suppliers.
Some sources suggest that the latest Russian MAP offers are still at $900pt cfr this week.
Brazil’s MAP prices have now climbed roughly $150pt over the past eight weeks, although the pace of increases has slowed in April due to a lack of both supply and demand.
Fresh-loading MAP cargoes are still not possible from Saudi Arabia due to ongoing restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with supply from the country limited to no more than 25% of capacity via the Red Sea route.
OCP is initiating Q2 production cutbacks as part of expanded maintenance. Unconfirmed reports suggest that the company’s rates could decline to 40-50% below capacity into May as costs continue to rise.

IPL of India delayed the closing date of its import tender for 1.2Mt DAP and 400,000t TSP to 7 May from 4 May. Offers are now to be valid until 13 May.
The tender still calls for shipments to the west and east coasts of India from the load ports by 15 August. The tender has been issued on behalf of multiple P&K fertilizer companies in India.
Further details of the required shipments have yet to be confirmed.
The timing of the tender is key, with allowance for loading as late as August, meaning some traders may take positions expecting higher availability by then. For now, supply is extremely tight, and most sources expect tender offers to be generally high at $980-1,000pt cfr.
It’s worth noting that in 2022, while US, Brazil, and Europe DAP/MAP prices reached highs of $1,100-1,300pt cfr, average India DAP prices did not surpass $955pt cfr.
No new direct DAP import deals have been reported to India since three sales concluded at $865pt cfr for April loading in early April.
Based on the new NBS rates and the prevailing MRP, the deals at $865pt cfr reflect a roughly $300pt loss on inland sales. Buyers are reliant on the government’s ‘disadvantage support’ at this point for margins.
Two weeks ago, Mosaic reportedly sold a roughly 40,000t DAP cargo for early-June loading to a trader for the Indian market at $898pt cfr equivalent, indicating traders are expecting further increases through Q2. Latest reports suggest DAP offers have moved to at least $ 950 per ton cfr.

OCP has yet to reach an agreement with Indian customers on its 2026/27 annual DAP/TSP contract shipments, which were expected to begin in April/May. OCP was understood to be seeking an increase in volumes from its previous 1.5Mt DAP and 1.0Mt TSP agreement with India for 2025/26, while buyers were seeking reduced TSP volumes.
India is still understood to be seeking high volumes from Saudi Arabia as part of its normal contracts for April/May loading. However, the backlog of shipments and the lack of clarity about the supplier’s ability to export via the Strait of Hormuz mean the actual arrival dates of any new deals from Saudi Arabia are unclear.
An Indonesian importer has bought 40,000-45,000t of DAP at $900-920/t cfr Indonesia from an Australian producer. The producer linked to the deal has declined to comment. The cargoes are scheduled to arrive in May and will be discharged at two ports. About 30,000-35,000t will be discharged at Gresik, with the remaining volumes at Bontang.

The same importer is understood to be seeking another two lots of 5,000t each of DAP for shipment to the Boom Baru port.

This price is above last week's Argus-assessed Southeast Asia price of $880-900/t cfr. Regional and global DAP prices have risen since the Middle East war, driven by a squeezed global supply, rising production costs, and firm freight rates.
Chinese phosphate producers are planning to further cut operating rates from May onwards, as sulfur supply remains persistently tight and exports of DAP and MAP are unlikely to resume.

Producers have already lowered operating rates across DAP and MAP plants to 50-55pc last week, as seasonal demand winds down ahead of the end of the peak spring application season.

Most plants plan to further lower operating rates from 50-55pc after the May Day holiday on 1–5 May, several producers told Argus. But they did not specify the extent of the further reduction.

Phosphate producers have been facing losses in the domestic market. Firm sulfur prices continue to erode phosphate producers' margins, but these producers have been encouraged to keep domestic selling prices affordable to safeguard farmers' affordability.

Most producers have been holding domestic DAP prices unchanged at 4,250 yuan/t ($621/t) delivered to Bayuquan from late December last year, despite persistently high input costs. Meanwhile, domestic sulfur prices rose to Yn6,370-6,390/t ex-warehouse as of 28 April, from Yn3,990-4,000/t late December last year, according to Argus data.

China's heavy reliance on imported sulfur, together with continued uncertainty over Middle Eastern sulfur supply, is reinforcing producers' cautious operating stance. The lack of a stable sulfur supply will likely keep phosphate producers out of the export market, with some expecting to halt exports until the end of the year.

POTASH

Potash prices held steady globally this week, following a week of price rises in key benchmarks, while MOP freight rates rebounded after declining for a few consecutive weeks. Brazilian farmers are resisting potash purchases above $400/t CFR after buying significant volumes at that level, which explains why suppliers have struggled to sell MOP above $407– 408/t CFR. Currently, Brazil MOP prices are assessed at $400-408/t CFR. Suppliers remain bullish, with Canpotex eyeing the Brazil market at $430–450/t CFR during the safrinha season in June–July. Belarusian suppliers are also targeting prices of $415–418/t CFR in June. Southeast Asian markets were quiet, with few deals reported. However, weather disruptions could cause some crop damage, according to market participants, amid the looming threat of El Niño. The US NOLA market was also quiet, with prices moving in the $320–340/st FOB range, as the spring application demand seems to be waning. India contract negotiations are back in focus as talks resume this week, with leading suppliers pushing offer prices to $400/t CFR, while Indian buyers have repeatedly requested $375–380/t CFR. A final deal is now considered to be just around the corner, according to many market participants, putting months of speculation to rest.

MOP prices are expected to edge higher in the near term, underpinned by rising freight, insurance, and logistical costs.

AMMONIA

Global ammonia benchmarks continued to rise this week, though the pace has slowed amid thin liquidity. Set to tighten forward availability is PT ESSA's 700,000 t/yr PAU facility in Indonesia, which is scheduled to begin a five-week maintenance shutdown on 6 May, keeping it offline until around mid-June. With Petronas in Malaysia understood to still be offline and Yara's Pilbara in Australia not expected to resume until around mid-May, the pool of available supply east of Suez shrinks further, all while Indian demand strengthens ahead of the Kharif season. Southeast Asian offer levels, ranging between $700-750/t FOB with limited prompt availability, are likely to tighten further in the weeks ahead. Demand remains strong in India. The assessment held at $800-850/t CFR, but Southeast Asian offers into India are now heard in the $850-900+/t CFR range – well above the current assessment – suggesting upward pressure is building. However, buyers appear to be unwilling to commit to higher offers. Importers are drawing on inventories and existing contractual supply while turning to Chinese material as an alternative, with some deals understood to have concluded at $810/t CFR. More starkly, some importers are signaling potential production cuts or shutdowns if affordable supply cannot be secured, with direct implications for domestic fertilizer availability.

One notable counterpoint to the broader upward trend came from China, where domestic ammonia prices eased across key provinces ahead of the Labor Day holiday, as producers moved to clear inventory before the break.

The market is expected to remain under upward pressure. With the PAU turnaround beginning 6 May and the Hormuz closure showing no sign of resolution, the structural tightness east of Suez is unlikely to ease in the near term

2026-05-04 by Phil Sunderland

LONDON (ICIS)–In Egypt, the government has imposed an export duty on all nitrogen fertilizer exports including urea for three months, set at $90/tonne or its equivalent in Egyptian pounds, effective 4 May.

2026-05-04 by Admin

LONDON (ICIS)–In the US, the Tampa ammonia contract price has been settled for May at $825/tonne CFR, up $50/tonne from $775/tonne CFR for April.

2026-05-04 by Admin

Morning. Int'l paper mkts drifting last week, with activity slow amidst thin demand. Fh Nola urea phys barges prices firmed to end the week. There is some optimism and signs of renewed demand in the corn belt in the coming weeks

AG
May $750//$815M
Jun $650//$735

Cfr Brazil
May $720//$732
Jun $670//$720
Jul $648//$680
Aug $610//$690

cfr Brazil AS
May $255//$275
Jun $255//$270

FOB China AS
May $260//$300

Nola
Paper:
May $627//$640
Jun $580//$595
Jul $560//$590
Q3 $550//$590

UAN Nola
May $500//$535

DAP Nola
May $735//$760
June $700//$765

MAP Brazil
Jun $875//$920
Jul $920 Offer

2026-05-04 by Admin

## *Weekly Market Update: Global Fertilizer & Ag Fundamentals
Report Date: May 4, 2026

### Executive Summary
The global fertilizer market is currently in a state of high alert due to the effectively shut Strait of Hormuz. The blockade, now entering its second month, has cut off roughly 20% of global energy supply and paralyzed a massive portion of the world's fertilizer trade. While Urea saw a price "reset" post-Indian tender, the broader market is defined by record-breaking Sulfur costs and "dangerously high" Phosphate levels, leading to massive demand destruction.

—

### 1. Nitrogen Complex

Urea
*India Tender Impact: The finalization of the Indian tender caused significant price decreases across global benchmarks. Offers for the West Coast were heard at $935–$1,136/t, and East Coast at $959–$1,136/t. However, levels remain too high to provoke massive spot activity.
*Egypt (NCIC & Mobco): NCIC closed its tender today (May 4). Last week, it awarded 10,000 tons at $852/t FOB. Mobco sold a small cargo at $850/t FOB for May shipment.
*Regional Activity:
*Americas: US May barges traded in the $620–$660/st range, declining rapidly toward the weekend. Brazil CFR is assessed at $750–$770/t.
*Russia/Baltic: No spot sales registered; rumors suggest prills sold to Encofer at $735/t FOB.
*Southeast Asia: China remains out of the export market. Local prices hover near $900/t FOB. Bangladesh has announced a tender for 100,000 tons (closing May 12).

Ammonia
*Supply: Tightening "East of Suez" as Panca Utama (Indonesia) enters turnaround until mid-June. Outages in Australia (Yara) and Malaysia (Petronas) further squeeze the market.
*Pricing: CFR India is evaluated between $800–$850/t. The May Tampa contract is expected to settle between $860–$870/t CFR—a nearly $100 jump from April.

Nitrates
*Baltic: Prices dropped slightly to $510–$540/t FOB as the market awaits news on the potential end of the Russian ammonium nitrate export ban on May 7.
*USA: UAN prices in the Corn Belt remained unchanged at $510–$515/st.

—

### 2. Phosphates & Sulfur

Phosphates (DAP/MAP/TSP/SSP)
*NCIC Tender: Today’s tender includes 30k tons of DAP, 10k tons of TSP, and 30k tons of SSP. Previous awards saw DAP at $880/t FOB and TSP at $695/t FOB.
*Global Benchmarks: European indications hit $970–$1,000/t, triggering massive demand destruction. NOLA DAP barges are valued at $730–$750/st.
*Brazil: MAP/DAP CFR is "paralyzed" at $900/t. OCP reported sales of 30k tons of TSP at $750–$755/t.

Sulfur
*Record Highs: Prices are hitting levels that threaten to "crush" phosphate production. CFR Brazil reached a record $1,800/t, while India rose to $800–$850/t.
*Spot vs. Contract: Vancouver spot prices hit $1,000/t FOB last week, far exceeding the Q2 contract of $655/t.

—

### 3. Agricultural Fundamentals & Geopolitics

Wheat & Grain Geopolitics
*The "Stolen Wheat" Incident: A vessel carrying wheat allegedly stolen by Russia from occupied Ukrainian territories was registered heading toward Haifa, Israel. Following a diplomatic scandal, the Israeli importer rejected the cargo, forcing the vessel back into neutral waters.
*USDA Crop Progress:
*Winter Wheat: Ratings remain at 30% good to excellent, the weakest since 2023. Roughly 70% of the crop is in drought-affected areas.
*Corn: Planting is 25% complete (ahead of expectations), but rising input costs are forcing farmers to shift acreage to less nutrient-intensive crops.
*Soybeans: Planting has reached 12%.

Energy Impact
*EU Natural Gas: Futures rose to €46.5/MWh due to the Hormuz blockade. Storage levels are at 28%, well below the 5-year average.
*US Natural Gas: Futures rose toward $2.80/MMBtu on the back of record LNG exports and lower domestic production.

—

### 4. Shipping & Logistics

*Containers: Spot rates on Asia-Europe routes softened 1–2% last week. However, new Emergency Fuel Surcharges implemented May 1 are expected to drive rates back up next week.
*Dry Bulk: The Baltic Exchange Dry Index increased, driven by Pacific liquidity from Australia and Indonesia, while the Atlantic remains subdued.

—

### Market Outlook*
We are approaching the "point of no return" for Northern Hemisphere spring applications. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked through May, structural under-supply will likely drive prices back toward their March peaks. Demand destruction remains the primary downward pressure as growers globally struggle to manage record-high input costs.

2026-05-04 by Admin

Update on the closing dynamics of urea futures on April 30: The main contract for urea futures on April 30, 2609, closed narrowly lower. The opening price was 2,017 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,017yuan/ton. Compared to the previous trading day’s settlement price, it decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The intra-day price fluctuation ranged from 2,011 to 2,044 yuan/ton. The daily average price was 2,024 yuan/ton, the daily settlement price was 2,024yuan/ton, the daily increase in positions was -16,662 contracts, the total volume traded was 306,200 contracts, and the open interest stood at 353,913 contracts.
‎

2026-05-03 by Admin

Thursday, April 30, 2026
*china Customs to Significantly Increase Ammonium Sulfate Inspection Rates After Labor Day; Strict Scrutiny of Classification and Composition
Due to recent instances of urea, compound fertilizers, and potash being misdeclared as ammonium sulfate to evade export controls, Customs is significantly increasing inspection rates for ammonium sulfate and strictly scrutinizing product classification and chemical composition.
### I. Requirements for Compliant Declaration:
1. Strictly declare under code 3102210000; ensure composition, packaging, and product name are consistent.
2. Prepare composition test reports and original factory quality certificates to handle high inspection rates.
3. Stocking and Shipping Schedule: Reserve an additional 3–7 days for inspection time to avoid port congestion/demurrage.
4. Price and Contracts: Clearly state risks regarding policy changes and include price adjustment clauses.
5. Strictly Prohibited: Misdeclaring urea, compound fertilizer, or potash as ammonium sulfate for customs clearance.
### II. Essential Set of Customs Declaration Documents
1. Contract, Invoice, Packing List, and Power of Attorney for Customs Declaration.
2. Product Composition Test Report (Nitrogen content, moisture, free acid, particle size).
3. Manufacturer’s Quality Certificate or Warranty Letter.
4. Photos of packaging and shipping marks (must be kept for both full containers and bulk cargo).
5. Certificate of Origin.
### III. Key Mandatory Elements for Customs Declaration
1. Product Name: Must be formally written as "Ammonium Sulfate"; do not use abbreviations like "ammonium fertilizer" or "nitrogen fertilizer."
2. Composition: Truthfully label total nitrogen content and moisture content.
3. Processing Method: Coking by-product / Caprolactam by-product / Chemical synthesis (fill in truthfully).
4. Packaging: Bagged/Tonne bags, net weight, and specifications.
5. Usage: Agricultural use / Industrial use (ensure consistency across all documents).
### IV. Key Focus Areas of Customs Inspection
1. Complete consistency between the physical product name, text on packaging bags, and the declared product name.
2. Zero deviation between actual composition, test reports, and declared composition.
3. No mixed loading or concealment of other fertilizer categories.
4. Clear shipping marks with traceable batches and production dates.
5. Container numbers and seal numbers* must match the customs declaration data exactly.

2026-05-01 by Admin

Morning. Int'l paper remained largely subdued y'day, but more supportive tone returned to Nola Urea as loaded phys traded $635, May paper $632 (a premium to values seen via May/Jun spread past 2 days), while Jun buyers still seen in $580-$585 range. Mkts framed:

AG weekly index = $890, Apr Avg = $864.60
May $750//$815
Jun $650//$735

Cfr Brazil weekly index = $765, Apr Avg = $776
May $720//$732
Jun $670//$720
Jul $658//$698
Aug $610//$690

Egypt weekly index = $840, Apr Avg = $853.20
Mopco sold $850 FH May ship't – 5k
Looking for further definition on paper

Brazil Amsul weekly index = $265, Apr Avg = $284
May $255//$275
Jun $255//$270

Nola
Phys: Loaded traded $635
Paper:
May $627//$635 – traded $632
Jun $585//$595 – traded $582, $585, $580
Jul $560//$590
Q3 $565//$590

UAN Nola weekly index = $515, Apr Avg = $503
May $500//$535

DAP Nola weekly index = $737, Apr Avg = $728.70
May $735//$760
June $700//$765

MAP Brazil weekly index = $900, Apr Avg = $883
Jun $875//$920
Jul $920 Offer

2026-05-01 by Admin

Direct Hedge – Daily Fertilizer Market Update
Friday, 1 May 2026

Markets softened further this week as post-India tender supply met weak global demand, with prices correcting across most regions. Nola declined steadily amid poor weather and heavy prior imports, enabling re-export business into Latin America at competitive levels. Outside India, affordability constraints kept buyers sidelined despite improved availability from North Africa and the FSU. Market direction now hinges on Middle East developments, potential Chinese exports, and the timing of India’s next tender.

Latest derivative levels

International Markets

Arab Gulf Urea (fob) – latest index 890 (-26.5)
– May: $750 / $820 →
– June: $650 / $700 →

Egypt Urea (fob) – latest index 840 (-42.5)
– May: $750 / $850 →
– June: $750 / $820 →

Brazil

Urea Brazil (cfr) – latest index 765 (-15)
– May: $720 / $750 →
– June: $600 / $700 →
– July: $600 / $680 →
– Aug: $600 / $680 →

Ammonium Sulphate Brazil (cfr) – latest index 265 (-27.5)
– May: $250 / $280 →
– June: $260 / $270 →
– July: $260 / $275 →
– Aug: $260 / $275 →

MAP Brazil (cfr) – latest index 900 (+10)
– May: $850 / $900 →
– June: $830 / $900 →

US Markets (NOLA)

NOLA Urea (paper)
– May: 630 / 640 →
– June: 580 / 600 →
– July: 550 / 590 →
– Aug: 530 / 570 →

NOLA DAP (paper)
– May: 725 / 735 ↓
– June: 740 / 780 →
– July: 750 / 800 →
– Aug: 750 / 790 →

NOLA UAN (paper)
– May: 505 / 525 →
– June: 500 / 530 →

2026-05-01 by Admin

China Daily Review: On April 30, the national market price of urea remained stable. Upstream quotations maintained the guidance price level. Pickup remained tight, but the volume of new orders from some companies had significantly decreased. Correspondingly, the transaction prices in the North China market had already deviated from the upstream quotations. The prices in other regions remained unchanged. However, the difficulty of middlemen in selling has increased, and the impact of the recent weakness in downstream demand has gradually been transmitted upward.
On April 30, 2026, the national daily production of urea was 223,400 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 89.06%. Overall, the market remained stable, with prices showing some weakness.