### 2. Fertilizers, Raw Materials, and Sector Companies 📈
Nutrien Advances in Q1 2026: The company’s net profit jumped to $139 million in the first quarter, with global sales up 19% and record potash trading volumes.
*Ma’aden Increases Results: The Saudi miner recorded a $436 million profit in Q1 2026, with a rise in phosphate production despite pressure from sulfur and logistics costs.
*Jordan Phosphate Grows: Jordan Phosphate Mines Company recorded a profit of 111 million dinars in Q1, with a 40% jump in phosphoric acid production.
*Misr Phosphate Expands: The Egyptian state-owned company reached 4.02 million tons in production and is advancing fertilizer and phosphoric acid projects in partnership with Indorama.
*Peruvian Phosphate Rock: Peruvian exports grew 3.6% in Q1 2026, reaching 1.3 million tons, driven by US demand.
*Saudi Urea Declines: Saudi Arabian exports fell 2.5% in 2025 to 4.33 million tons, with Asia as the main destination.
*Indonesian Ammonia: Indonesian ammonia exports grew 8.2% in Q1 2026 to 412,000 tons, with South Korea and India as top destinations.
*Sulfur in Indonesia: Indonesian sulfur imports fell 30.3% in Q1 2026 to 966,100 tons, with 71% of the volume originating from the Persian Gulf.
*Regional Sulfur Supply: Colombia expanded its solid sulfur capacity with a new Ecopetrol plant at the Cartagena refinery, with a potential production of up to 1,000 tons/day.
*Fertilizers as Critical Minerals: The Chamber of Deputies approved equating fertilizers to critical and strategic minerals, incorporating the National Fertilizer Plan into the PNMCE and paving the way for tax incentives and subsidized credit.
*Nitrogen in Brazil: Brazilian ammonium sulfate imports took center stage through April 2026 with a 17.3% increase, while urea purchases fell by over 20%.
*Deliveries and Production in Brazil: Fertilizer deliveries and production fell in the first two months of 2026, with Mato Grosso maintaining the lead in receipts.
*Ansa Resumption: Petrobras resumed urea production at Ansa and consolidated the reactivation of Fafens, with investments of R$870 million and progress in the domestic market.
*UFN-3 in Três Lagoas: Petrobras defined the companies responsible for completing UFN-3 works, with an estimated investment of R$5 billion, a planned restart in 2027, and commercial operation in 2029.
*Brazil Potash: The company raised $63.3 million in a public offering to fund working capital and the development of the potash project in Autazes, Amazonas.
*Mosaic Potash: Mosaic completed the sale of the Carlsbad mine for $30 million; the new owner plans to double potash production capacity within five years.
*YPFB Targets Domestic Market: The Bolivian state company plans to sell over 87,000 tons of urea domestically in 2026, amid a drop in exports earlier this year.
*India Seeks to Boost Production: The Indian government plans to increase urea production to 2.2 million tons in May after stabilizing natural gas supplies to factories.
*Fertiglobe by Land: Fertiglobe ruled out damage to its UAE plant and began redirecting urea exports via land routes to bypass the Gulf blockade.
*Alternative Routes for Fertiglobe: The company adopted land transport for fertilizers, with high global prices offsetting additional logistics costs.
*PhosAgro Tariff:* The US reduced the countervailing duty on Russian PhosAgro phosphate fertilizers to 12.71%, down from the previous rate of over 18%.
Here are the translated and formatted summaries of the price tables, optimized for reading on *WhatsApp.
### 📊 Ammonium Sulfate Bidding Prices (May 2026)
Unit: RMB/Ton
Northeast China
🔹 Jilin Jianlong: 1535
🔹 Jilin Tonggang: 1475 (📉 -10)
🔹 Jianlong Xilin: 1020 (Prev)
North China
🔹 Bayannur Energy: 1250 (—)
🔹 Shenhua (Wuhai): 1250 (—)
🔹 Baogang Coking: 1293 (📉 -20)
🔹 Baogang Qinghua: 1288 (📉 -10)
🔹 Handan Iron & Steel: 1445 (📈 +20)
🔹 Hebei Huafeng: 1485 (📈 +25)
🔹 Qian'an Zhonghua: 1502 (📈 +1)
🔹 Shanxi Jin Ding: 1420 (📉 -35)
🔹 Shanxi Coking: 1370 (📉 -30)
🔹 Shanxi Dongyi: 1415 (📈 +10)
🔹 Xiaoyi Pengfei: 1415 (📈 +10)
🔹 Shanxi Yongxin: 1406 (📉 -24)
🔹 Shanxi Axin: 1450 (📈 +10)
🔹 Shanxi Jiuxin: 1370 (📉 -11)
🔹 Shanxi Yangguang: 1350 (📉 -50)
🔹 Shanxi Liheng: 1370 (📉 -35)
🔹 Shanxi Huaxin: 1415 (📉 -5)
🔹 Shanxi Gengyang: 1420 (📈 +30)
🔹 Pingyao Coal: 1410 (📉 -5)
East China
🔹 Laiwu Steel: 1476 (📉 -17)
🔹 Tiexiong Xinsha: 1475
🔹 Shandong Rongxin: 1490
🔹 Taizhou Coking: 1470 (📉 -8)
🔹 Anhui Lu'an: 1350 (—)
Central China
🔹 Henan Liyuan: 1470 (📉 -11)
🔹 Henan Shuncheng: 1467 (📉 -13)
🔹 Henan Shoushan: 1400 (📉 -20)
Southwest China
🔹 Yunmei Anning: 1330-1340 (📉 -20)
### 🚜 Domestic Urea Price Summary (May 8-9)
Unit: RMB/Ton
Factory Prices (Ex-Works)
🏭 PetroChina Daqing: 1880 (—)
🏭 Shanxi Tianze (Large): 1900 (📉 -20)
🏭 Henan Zhongyuan: No Quote
🏭 Henan Lianxin: 1810 (—)
🏭 Henan Jinkai: 1810 (—)
🏭 Hebei Dongguang: 1820 (📉 -10)
🏭 Hebei Zhengyuan: 1820 (📉 -10)
🏭 Jiangsu Linggu (Small): 1870 (—)
🏭 Jiangsu Linggu (Large): 1970 (—)
🏭 Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng: 1840 (—)
🏭 Shandong Shuntian: 1800 (📉 -20)
🏭 Anhui Haoyuan: 1800 (—)
🏭 Chongqing Jianfeng: 1830 (—)
Market Prices (Regional)
📍 Hebei (Hengshui): 1850-1860 (📉 -10)
📍 Hebei (Cangzhou): 1850-1860 (📉 -10)
📍 Shandong (Linyi): 1860 (—)
📍 Shandong (Heze): 1850 (—)
📍 Henan (Shangqiu): 1860-1870 (📉 -10)
📍 Anhui (Suzhou): 1870-1880* (—)
China Morning Briefing 2026-5-9
❤Sulfur: The spot price of imported sulfur in China continued to decline yesterday. The reference price for granular sulfur at the Port of Jiangsu was 6,900 yuan/ton, a 2.82% decrease from the previous period. The market continues to be dominated by conflicting views, with downstream players remaining cautious. Yesterday, the Shandong liquid sulfur market saw prices consolidate at a high level. The auctioned prices for local refineries ranged from 6,768 to 6,853 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase from the previous day’s lower end. Demand from downstream industries follows the pattern of adhering to needs, and the auction atmosphere remains tepid. Prices have remained stable. In the northwest, prices continued to rise, with the main range being 6,470 to 6,940 yuan/ton. In the northeast, liquid prices remained stable, with the main range for liquid sulfur being 6,330 to 6,510 yuan/ton. It is expected that sulfur prices will remain high in the short term.
❤Urea: The domestic urea market experienced a steady decline over the past day. Under pressure from sales targets, some major factories lowered their quoted prices. Currently, there is a lack of effective reference guidance, and overall market fluctuations are limited. Attention should still be focused on information related to plant maintenance and exports. In the short term, the market may continue to maintain a weak consolidation trend.
❤Melamine: The domestic melamine market was generally strong yesterday. Although the current market fundamentals for supply and demand are limitedly favorable, businesses are supported by pending orders, and market enthusiasm for price increases is high. Price movements may primarily be characterized by tentative upward adjustments.
❤Synthetic Ammonia: Yesterday, the synthetic ammonia market in major production regions showed mixed trends. Only the region of Hubei continued to see an increase, while other areas experienced varying degrees of decline. Currently, the supply end of the market is relatively abundant, and demand is weak. Additionally, there is a clear tendency to buy high and sell low. The effect of ammonia plants reducing their inventories post-holiday has been limited, and areas with high prices continue to focus on reducing inventories. Due to the persistent impact of low-priced sources on high-end markets, it is expected that the price of synthetic ammonia will continue to experience further declines.
❤Ammonium chloride: The domestic market for ammonium chloride was relatively stable yesterday. Some caustic soda production facilities were idled for maintenance, providing support for the market. However, downstream compound fertilizer companies experienced poor sales performance, and their operating rates continued to decline. The demand for ammonium chloride was constrained, and there was little change in the short-term supply and demand situation. There may be potential for new orders for ammonium chloride to become more flexible.
❤Ammonium sulfate: The market for ammonium sulfate saw a narrow adjustment yesterday. International demand inquiries were weak, and end-user purchasing sentiment weakened. For the short term, the market remained stable with a wait-and-see approach. It is expected that the market for ammonium sulfate will stabilize and remain in a wait-and-see mode in the near future.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: The market for monoammonium phosphate remained stable and cautious yesterday, awaiting news from relevant conferences. It is reported that there will be a negotiation meeting on sulfur supply and demand in China, but specific details are currently unknown. The market will likely continue to remain cautious in the short term.
The domestic diammonium phosphate market remained cautious yesterday. Raw material prices remained high, putting continued pressure on costs. Factory production loads were adjusted slightly, and demand was generally weak. The market overall continued to exhibit a cautious atmosphere, waiting for clear information from policymakers. In the short term, the market will remain stable.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: The domestic market for potassium chloride saw its prices remain high and firm yesterday. The volume of available stock in the hands of traders was insufficient, and domestic manufacturers’ production was relatively limited. Currently, domestic 60% potassium sulfate arriving at the terminal is priced between 3,100 to 3,350 yuan/ton, with individual deals negotiated. The market for sulfuric acid potassium fertilizer has shown temporary stability, with limited production from manufacturers, which has largely maintained a balance between supply and demand.
❤Compound fertilizers: The domestic compound fertilizer market remained largely stable with minor fluctuations yesterday. The main upstream raw materials exhibited moderate and narrow fluctuations, while the enthusiasm for receiving goods in the midstream and downstream was low. Companies mostly maintained prices to fulfill earlier orders. Market sentiment remains cautious, with many waiting for further guidance from effective news. It is expected that the main trend of the short-term compound fertilizer market will stabilize, with minor fluctuations occurring in certain areas.
The growth minerals sector remains a primary focus within global commodities as of May 2026, even while stock prices have yet to catch up with the operational momentum. Current market sentiment suggests that fertilizers are one of the most critical spaces to monitor, particularly as global markets are reshaped by a rare convergence of geopolitical disruption and supply constraints. While some observers categorize this as a unique moment, the reality is that the industry has faced similar geopolitical hurdles before. The current environment is defined by rising prices for nitrogen, sulphur, and phosphate, driven more by scarcity and market unease than by simple consumption. This trend has been building since the spring of 2025, and though a downward trend was briefly anticipated in early 2026, the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz in March effectively ended those hopes for farmer relief.
The data reveals that the Producer Price Index for phosphates has been on a steady upward climb of approximately 100 points since July 2023. This movement is distinct from the sharp spike seen in 2021 and 2022 during the initial invasion of Ukraine. Today, the focus has shifted toward regional power players like Morocco and Nigeria. Morocco’s OCP Group and Nigeria’s Aliko Dangote are making massive investments to capture market share in nitrogen and phosphate production, aiming to fill the vacuum left by Russia and China. This shift occurs against a sobering backdrop provided by the World Food Programme, which warns that an additional 9.1 million people could face acute food insecurity across the Asia Pacific region due to the current price environment and the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran.
In the capital markets, the high price of phosphate has triggered significant corporate activity and a renewed interest in new projects. Agnico Eagle recently moved into the space by acquiring Fox River Resources and its Martison Phosphate Project in Ontario. This move is seen as a strategic attempt to secure domestic supplies of phosphate for both fertilizers and the growing LFP battery industry. Simultaneously, PhosCo has reported a significant resource expansion at its Gasaat Phosphate Project in Tunisia, where the company is dedicated to supplying the global market from high grade rock sources. These developments highlight a growing trend where mining companies are pivoting toward minerals that underpin global food and energy security.
Potash production is also seeing major advancements, particularly in Brazil where the Autazes project has transitioned from the exploration phase to active construction. This project is strategically located near the Madeira River to provide domestic supply to Brazilian soybean and corn producers, who currently rely heavily on imports. Brazil is currently positioned well ahead of the United States in terms of diversifying its fertilizer sources. Meanwhile, the global wheat market is facing its own set of challenges, described by many as a perfect storm. Prices have been volatile, hitting a peak in late April 2026 before settling near six dollars per bushel in early May. While India and Russia are expected to be key suppliers, the United States is facing a century low in wheat plantings due to prolonged winter and dry conditions.
Geopolitical tensions are further complicating the potash supply chain, particularly between Germany and the United States. Recent reports suggest that Germany may be using its potash production capacity, through companies like K plus S Group, as leverage in broader diplomatic negotiations. K plus S Group has already raised its earnings forecasts for 2026, citing strong demand from Brazil. In Asia, China remains a dominant force, with its muriate of potash imports rising nearly 30 percent in the first quarter of 2026. China has managed to lock in lower prices through previous contracts with Russia and Belarus, even as global benchmarks move toward 400 dollars per ton.
The ongoing debate over fertilizer procurement highlights a fundamental tension in global policy. While some advocates call for an agri food transition away from traditional inputs, the immediate reality is that fertilizers remain essential for preventing widespread food insecurity. In the United States, government rhetoric remains contradictory, with officials calling for the onshoring of production while maintaining duties on imports from major producers like Morocco. These policy inconsistencies, combined with the reality of high production costs for farmers, suggest that the fertilizer market will remain a volatile but essential component of the global economy for the foreseeable future. The necessity of these minerals is undeniable, as they remain the primary safeguard against a total collapse in global food supply chains.
On May 7, the national market price of urea showed a slight decline. Overall, upstream quotations remained at the guidance level. Some enterprises began to lower their prices due to reduced advance payments. Downstream entities should exercise caution when selecting low-priced purchases. A sense of pessimism has spread from the north to the south.
On May 7, 2026, the national daily production of urea was 225,200 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 89.79%. Overall, the market was experiencing weakness.
China Daily: On May 8, the national market price of urea showed a slight decline. There were localized drops in upstream quotations, new orders were not well received, and there were still many pending shipments. Demand from end-users was weak, intermediaries faced difficulties in sales, and at the same time, futures continued to decline. Hedging sources were released, and pressure gradually spread to various stages of the supply chain.
On May 8, 2026, the national daily production of urea was 225,200 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 89.79%. Overall, the market was experiencing weakness.
Thursday, May 7, 2026
HALLGARTEN +
COMPANY
Sector Coverage
Joshua Mayfield
jmayfield@hallgartenco.com
Growth Minerals Review
It’s All Go (except stock prices)
May 2026
HALLGARTEN + COMPANY Page 1
Thursday, May 7, 2026
Growth Minerals Sector
It’s All Go (except stock prices)
+ Fertilizers are one of the top spaces to watch in global commodities right now
+ Agnico Eagle subsidiary Avenir Minerals Ltd acquires Fox River Resources’s Martison
Phosphate Project in Ontario, Canada
+ ASX-listed PhosCo releases updated MRE for Gasaat Phosphate Project in Tunisia
+ Wheat is bullish on prices and tight supply
+ China’s MOP imports saw a significant rise from the previous year
× Morocco and Nigeria see an opportunity to capture global fertilizer market share
× WFP says additional 9.1mn people could be pushed into acute food insecurity in 2026
× A perfect storm of events occurring to global wheat production and supply chains
× German government attempts to win leverage over President Trump by attacking
U.S.’s potash vulnerability
× U.S. government is on a fertilizer witch hunt with unclear prospects for change
Rare fertilizer moments to be continued…
Everyone knows by now that fertilizers are one of the top spaces to watch in global commodities
during the Middle East chaos. One commodities news source put it this way: “Global fertilizer
markets are being slowly reshaped by a rare convergence of geopolitical disruption, supply
constraints and growing affordability concerns…As a result, prices for nitrogen, sulphur, sulphuric
acid and phosphate are being increasingly driven by scarcity and unease in market sentiment
rather than consumption or demand.”
This isn’t exactly a “rare” moment for fertilizers. We have been here before in terms of geopolitical
disruptions to fertilizer supplies. More importantly, this is not a rare moment for farmer affordability
worldwide. Fertilizer prices have been going up across the board since around the spring planting
season of 2025. It was only during the first months of 2026 that the market thought fertilizer prices
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were finally moving on a downward trend, and to the benefit and relief of farmers, until the Strait of
Hormuz shut down in March 2026.
Source: World Bank Commodity Report on Fertilizers, April 2026
One of the talking points in the mass media is to make comparisons to fertilizer prices in the 2021-
2022 market in the lead up to and during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The price chart below
reveals that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for Phosphates rose sharply by almost 180 points in
2021-2022. This in contrast to the upward trend in Phosphate PPI facing the fertilizer market in the
last three years.
Since July 2023, the Phosphate PPI has been on an upward trend of around 100 index points:
Source: FRED
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Thursday, May 7, 2026
We recently spoke to The Global and Mail again about global phosphate production. Morocco’s
OCP Group is launching a strategy to supply Africa with phosphate. This will occur under a
backdrop of Nigeria’s Aliko Dangote – the continent’s wealthiest man – pouring US$40 billion into
an energy and fertilizer strategy that plans to quadruple urea fertilizer output. Morocco and Nigeria
clearly see an opportunity in what’s going on with Russia and China to capture market share for
global nitrogen and phosphate production.
The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has already warned of the doomsday scenarios
that are likely to happen in the current price environments for food and fertilizers. According to
WFP, an additional 9.1 million people could be pushed into acute food insecurity across the Asia-
Pacific region alone, an increase of 24% prior to the war between the U.S. and Iran.
Shouldn’t the world be concerned that Morocco and Nigeria, two countries that are a far cry from
being food-secure themselves, could determine the future of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer
supplies to the global market?
The Phosphate PPI tells a different angle on the fertilizer production than actual market prices.
With sulphur and ammonia being sold at a premium to fertilizer manufacturers, phosphate fertilizer
prices will not come down in the short term, regardless of what happens in the Strait of Hormuz.
This is why new phosphate projects are getting a lot of attention in the capital markets. Even the
battery-intensive companies with their LFP battery dreams in sight are getting noticed for the high
phosphate fertilizer prices.
Agnico Goes Off-Piste into Phosphate
In a very intriguing transaction, in recent days, it was announced that Agnico Eagle, via its
subsidiary Avenir Minerals Ltd, was acquiring Fox River Resources (CSE:FOX) by way of a statutory
plan of arrangement under the Canada Business Corporations Act. The deal was unanimously
approved by the directors of Fox.
Fox River holds a 100% interest in the Martison Phosphate Project near Hearst, Ontario. This had
been planned as a vertically integrated operation, to exploit a high-grade, large-scale igneous
phosphate deposit “capable of providing a secure domestic supply of phosphate fertilizers as well
as PPA for the LFP battery industry”. The project's Anomaly A deposit underpinned a PEA with an
effective date of April 21, 2022.
Shareholders of Fox River will receive CAD$1.10 per share, payable in cash, for an aggregate
purchase price of approximately CAD$94.3mn on a fully-diluted basis.
This is a very interesting appearance of a very different set of “fins in the water” in the phosphate
space in Canada.
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Thursday, May 7, 2026
PhosCo’s Phosphate Mining Project is a Rare Gem
ASX-listed PhosCo’s (ASX:PHO) Gasaat Phosphate Project is indeed a rare story given that the
company is completely dedicated to supplying the phosphate fertilizer market from the phosphate
rock sources in Tunisia. The company released a Maiden Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE)
including the recently announced mineral deposits at KM and SAB this month.
We have consistently reported results from PhosCo’s mining project, and so we are not surprised
to find that the resource expansion is an impressive one: a current JORC Resource total of 166.6
million tons of Phosphate Rock at 20.6% P205 grade.
The company still has five more prospects to define and measure in the phosphate resource base
at Gasaat, such as the DOH discovery. The strip ratio was lowered from 4:1 to 0.4:1 because of the
latest MRE. The PHO stock price is up over 90% year-over year.
Minesite Visit to Brazil Potash’s Autazes Mine
It was clear from our recent site visit to Autazes that Brazil Potash has crossed the border that
divides the explorer from the developer and is now in the construction phase. To say the expedition
was action-packed is an understatement. There was never a dull moment, and we find it hard to
recall if we have ever experienced so many dramatic modes of transportation in such a short time.
Only thing lacking was a camel ride.
The expedition was based out of Manaus, the capital of the vast state of Amazonas. It stands at the
confluence of the Rio Negro (Black River) and the Rio Solimões. It is a vast sprawling conurbation
with around 2.2mn people and is one of only two major cities in Amazonas. It is a major industrial
centre and the major port on the Amazon and thus the major transport, service and access point
for the future Autazes mine.
The Autazes Potash project is situated in an area encompassing approximately 98 square miles
located in the Amazon potash basin near the city of Autazes in the eastern portion of the state of
Amazonas, Brazil, within the Central Amazon Basin, between the Amazon River and the Madeira
River, approximately 75 miles southeast of the city of Manaus, northern Brazil.
We also got to participate in the tribal gathering with local Amazonas indigenous group during the
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Thursday, May 7, 2026
2nd Encounter of the Mura Peoples. Below can be seen the CEO of Brazil Potash, Matt Simpson,
getting with the local vibe.
The event was a fascinating mix of local culture and modernity. The enthusiasm for the project was
palpable as the prospect of jobs and progress for traditionally marginalized groups was a strong
draw for the recent votes that have strongly supported the advancement of the Autazes project.
Our investment thesis for Brazil Potash remains focused on the critical nexus of geopolitical risk
and Brazilian fertilizer independence. The company is not exaggerating when it refers to the
Autazes project as one of the world’s largest undeveloped potash basins in Brazil’s own backyard.
The most critical aspect is that the potash will be sold domestically—for Brazilian farmers first—
thus fulfilling the goals of the National Fertilizer Plan. The site visit made clear that the company is
very advanced in site preparation for the processing plant and the port terminal for the Autazes
project. The port and other infrastructure is one of the greatest advantages compared with other
mining projects in the region.
The Autazes potash mine is located near to the Madeira River which gives the company downriver
access to Mato Grosso, where the captive market of Brazilian soybean and corn producers hunger
for a domestic supply of fertilizers. Brazil Potash isn’t concerned about its market strategy,
because Brazil is already the biggest importer of potash in the world. Brazil Potash is a clear
Brazilian agriculture play, fitting with the government’s National Fertilizer plan to increase domestic
production sources of potash supplies for farmers. Brazil is ahead of the game—way ahead of the
U.S.—in terms of plans to diversify domestic and international sources of potash fertilizers.
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Thursday, May 7, 2026
Global Wheat Prices Moving to the Upside
We noted in the previous monthly—Squeeze on Urea (& Everything)—that global wheat prices were
destined to go higher. There is a perfect storm of events occurring to global wheat production and
supply chains. Kpler put it like this: “Agricultural markets remain volatile, with Hormuz bottlenecks,
US drought risks, and robust South Amerian exports shaping the outlook.”
On 1 May 2026, wheat prices on the CBOT closed at USD $6.37 per bushel and then rose to USD
$6.50 before falling again. Since then, the prices have fallen to around USD $6 per bushel. Wheat’s
high occurred on 29 April 2026 when the price was above USD $6.70 per bushel. This price beat
2025's best day for CBOT wheat at USD $6.67 on 18 February 2025.
Wheat prices bottomed out at around USD $5.24 per bushel on 2 January 2026. Prices have been
on an uptrend for the remainder of the year. Prices rose to USD $6.34 per bushel on 5 May 2026. As
of this publication time (7 May 2026) prices are at USD $6.12 per bushel.
Source: barchart, Wheat CBOT Prices, closing date on 5 May 2026.
Globally, wheat is bearish on production and bullish on prices. India is going to be one of the key
suppliers of wheat this year. The government has approved overseas wheat shipments of 7.5
million tons for the current year.
Russia is the world’s biggest producer and supplier of wheat. SovEconhas raised its Russian wheat
export forecast for the 2025/26 season by 0.9 million tonnes to 47.4 million tonnes, and for 2026/27
by 1.4 million tonnes to 45.2 million tonnes. The upward revision reflects a strong demand for
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Thursday, May 7, 2026
wheat from Egypt, one of the largest Black Sea wheat importers. Egypt reportedly imported around
1.5 millions tons of wheat in the month of April.
In the U.S., the 2025/26 forecast for wheat plantings declared that wheat plantings in the U.S. will
hit a century low. The acreage report forecasted the lowest wheat plantings by U.S. farmers since
1919. Prolonged winter and drier conditions are the main causes for the low output for U.S. wheat.
In closing, global wheat prices are volatile right now. Weather problems in Western Hemisphere
have reduced wheat plantings, while higher fertilizer prices have caused less desire to increase
output in other parts of the world, notably Australia. Then there's also the geopolitical risk premium
related to the Russia-Ukraine war. That's still the biggest concern of all for wheat supply and
demand dynamics going forward.
Source: Kpler/USDA
Germany takes a stab at U.S. vulnerability in potash procurement
There was very provocative and true article that circulated in the mass media about potash this
month. Given the geo-political tensions between the U.S. and Germany over NATO and the Iran
War, it was a timely discussion to bring potash into the balance of power equation. The article,
originally published in Bloomberg and subsequently in various other media sources, is entitled
“Germany Sees US as Vulnerable to Squeeze on Potash Supplies”.
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Thursday, May 7, 2026
Potash was referred to as a way for the German government to win leverage over President Trump
by attacking one of the U.S.’s supply chain vulnerabilities. K+S Group is the German potash
producer that has potash mines in both Germany and Canada. The Bethune mine in Saskatchewan
was the world’s newest greenfield potash mine before BHP’s Jasen mine arrived to the sector. In
other words, K+S’s Bethune mine is the newest potash mine that is currently in production for the
global market.
K+S released its 1Q26 earnings in April: EBITDA was reported at EUR 280 million, which was above
the market consensus of EUR 225 million and higher than 1Q25’s EUR 201 million. K+S is also a salt
producer, supplying both the de-icing and food-grade salt markets. The MOP price for K+S was an
average of €336 per tonne in 1Q26, and the company produced 1.97 million tons.
K+S raised its full-year 2026 EBITDA forecast to €630 million–€730 million, up from approximately
€600 million–€700 million in the previous forecast. The company attributed the raise in the EBITDA
forecast to Brazilian potash demand. The company noted in the earnings statement: “If the average
annual price of potassium chloride in Brazil remains at the level seen at the end of 2025, EBITDA
could reach the lower end of the range, assuming sales volumes of 7.4 million tonnes in the
Agriculture customer segment.” Brazilian potash price levels are already rising, at around USD
$400 per ton of MOP. This is already a premium of more than USD $50 per ton at the end of 2025.
It is not difficult to see K+S as a potential predator lurking around GRO.
China – Potash Demand Rises in 2026
China’s MOP imports for January–March 2026 saw a 29.3% rise from the previous year, at around
4.5 million tons. In March 2026 alone, China imported more than one-third of the total MOP
supplies during this period at 1.68 million tons.
China must feel like a big winner since they locked in a price at around US$348-$354/ton of MOP
with suppliers from Russia, Belarus and Canada in 2025. MOP prices are currently on a trajectory
to surpass US$400-$500 per ton in the Brazilian and U.S. market in 2026. The value of China’s total
MOP imports from January-March 2026 were US$1.65 billion.
In this price environment for MOP, Belarusian potash supplies to China look very attractive.
China’s imports of potash from Belarus in January–March 2026 amounted to USD $409.9 million, or
40% of the entire value for the entire period. However, Russia took the cake with a value at USD
$505.9 million.
Russia’s fertilizer quota extension by 1.3 million tons is generous. The market should be jumping
for joy that Russia even expanded the quota, or even worse, Russia could've reduced the quota for
the remainder of the year. It is also evident from the China MOP data that Russia allocated a
significant amount of the fertilizer export quota to MOP exports for the China market. MOP supplies
from Canada, Laos and Israel filled the rest of the gaps.
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Thursday, May 7, 2026
In addition to Russia and Belarus, China secured potash shipments from Jordan and Israel based
on previously signed potash agreements from 2025. Jordanian potash producer APC and Chinese
importer Sinofert agreed to an exclusive potash marketing agreement until 2028. Israel’s ICL Group
signed the the 2025–2027 potash framework agreements with Chinese importers to provide
750,000 metric tons of potash, with a mutual option for an additional 340,000 metric tons, at a
price aligned with recent contracts settlements ay US$346 per ton.
Price, price, price!
We’ve recently got a lot of questions about the validity of potash pricing benchmarks. It is
worthwhile to look back at some of the historical information about China’s MOP price contracts in
this regard.
Back in 2021, for example, China expanded planting areas and swine herds which pushed up the
demand for potash tonnage. This also influenced MOP supplies for the global market, and so
China’s MOP price contract was raised from US$247 per ton to US$362 per ton. This didn’t change
the MOP price contract settled by Belarusian Potash Corporation (BPC) at the time, which kept the
price arrangement at $247 per ton. This price was comparatively lower than the actual market
price, which put Belarusian potash suppliers at a significant advantage to supply China with MOP
in 2021 when China’s potash demand was on the up.
The global potash price benchmarks are based on MOP prices in Vancouver, Canada, and a few
other ports. The data is not very reliable, because potash export agreements are made based on
separate supply arrangements. For example, the Canadian potash producers and suppliers (aka:
Canpotex) must make deals based on large potash volumes that justify rail, port and seaborne
freight costs. The China MOP price contract with Russia and Belarus was made at around US$348-
$354 per ton because of lesser transportation and freight costs.
At present, MOP prices are rising higher than the China MOP contract price, and we are also
wondering whether China will agree to pay higher prices than Brazil or U.S. in the event that Russia
or Belarus demand a market premium for MOP. The latter will determine China’s diversification
strategy, on the one hand, such as boosting potash imports from Canada or Laos. On the other
hand, the Russia-Belarus MOP prices could diverge now that the U.S. is lifting sanctions on
Belaruskali. That will be another very important signal for the MOP prices in the long term.
Fertilizer procurement matters for global food security
The former President of Costa Rica, Carlos Alvarado Quesada, gave a riveting account about the
ongoing vulnerabilities from fertilizer procurement in an op-ed with Fortune. He stated that
governments spend more than USD $700 billion a year subsidising agriculture, while farmers must
eat the high costs of fuel and fertilizers to produce the crops. The former Costa Rican president
makes the case for the agri-food transition as an untapped capital pool for investors, calling it the
“next infrastructure trade”. This so-called infrastructure trade is quite different than the one we are
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Thursday, May 7, 2026
used to hearing about for data centers and AI; it is about governments providing subsidies tied to
sustainable agriculture practices, agricultural research, rural infrastructure improvements, and
direct support to help smallholder farmers transition away from fossil-fuels.
That sounds like a swipe at fertilizers. Fertilizers shouldn’t be the enemy of the state. When prices
rise, it is because of factors outside of the farmers’ control, indeed, but farmers turn bigger profits
themselves when they apply fertilizers to their fields. Without fertilizers, the real vulnerabilities go
into food insecurity, not the other way around. One of the statements made in the op-ed should
clarify this reality: “In a world hungry for hope and often short on it, let’s make food—the one thing
that brings us all to the same table—a source of shared, win-win solutions.”
In closing, you can’t have your cake and eat it, too!
The op-ed by Carlos Quesada reminds us of the issues pertaining to U.S. countervailing duties
(CVDs) on Morocco’s phosphate imports. The CVDs were placed on OCP Group due to the state-
owned producer’s advantages in having access to secure government subsidies whereas the U.S.
phosphate producers are almost disadvantaged in supplying the U.S. market. In the various
negativities surrounding the CVDs, one critic really got our attention when he called phosphate
fertilizers from Morocco the “low-hanging fruit” that U.S. farmers need to secure fertilizers at a
lower price.
The low-hanging fruit should be placed on domestic phosphate production, or at least from
sources closer to the U.S. market geographically, and not one that receives government subsidies
during a market downturn, when prices can be controlled by a state-owned monopoly source. OCP
Group is currently selling phosphate fertilizer at some of the highest premiums in the entire global
fertilizer market.
Meanwhile, the contradictions coming from U.S. farming groups and U.S. government
representatives is astounding. U.S. Agriculture Secretary Rollins said in an interview about fertilizer
prices that U.S. farmers shouldn’t be relying on fertilizer supplies from other parts of the world—
"onshore what we reshore out of America… both in the short term and the long term,” she said.
“The silver lining in all of this is that we have got to be able to produce this within our own country.
That relying on other countries like Russia and China and to a certain extent even Canada for some
this is not sustainable…for our food and our fertilizer…a real recalibration of the federal
government around the importance of the farmer and rancher in all of this, and making sure the
policy reflects that.”
And to a certain extent even Canada. There you have it: the U.S. government doesn’t have a clear
view on the vulnerabilities imposed upon it by phosphate and potash. You just can’t have your cake
and eat it, too. Plus, without fertilizers, the cake is a foregone conclusion anyways. How does
paying a premium for wheat and sugar sound right now? Perhaps that’s where the next price-
gouging witch hunt by President Trump will take place on social media.
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Thursday, May 7, 2026
Source: X @ TrumpDailyPosts, 11 April 2026:
https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/2042970512759144822
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Thursday, May 7, 2026
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Thursday, May 7, 2026
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Thursday, May 7, 2026
Important disclosures
I, Joshua Mayfield, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal
views about the subject securities and issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be,
directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or view expressed in this research report.
Hallgarten’s Equity Research rating system consists of LONG, SHORT and NEUTRAL recommendations. LONG
suggests capital appreciation to our target price during the next twelve months, while SHORT suggests capital
depreciation to our target price during the next twelve months. NEUTRAL denotes a stock that is not likely to provide
outstanding performance in either direction during the next twelve months, or it is a stock that we do not wish to place
a rating on at the present time. The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable,
but we do not guarantee their accuracy. Prices and opinions concerning the composition of market sectors included
in this report reflect the judgments of this date and are subject to change without notice. This report is for information
purposes only and is not intended as an offer to sell or as a solicitation to buy securities.
Hallgarten & Company or persons associated do own securities described herein (i.e. Brazil Potash and Millennial
Potash). Additional information is available upon request.
© 2026 Hallgarten & Company Limited. All rights reserved.
Reprints of Hallgarten reports are prohibited without permission.
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(Bloomberg) — India received offers for phosphate
fertilizer at more than $900 a ton in a tender on Thursday, a
fresh sign of how the war in the Middle East is boosting costs
for major importers.
Prices in thetender, which was organized by Indian Potash
Ltd., ranged from $930 to $1,100 a ton, according to traders
familiar with the matter. Some 18 companies participated,
offering a total of about 2.3 million tons — almost double the
volume sought, said the people, who were not authorized to speak
to the media.
While the Middle East is a smaller player in phosphate
fertilizer compared to the nitrogen variety, almost half of the
world’s supply of sulfur — which is turned into the acid needed
to process it — comes from countries in the region vulnerable to
disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
A senior official at Indian Potash wasn’t immediately
available for comment.
A gauge of sulfur prices is currently at the highest since
at least 2013, Green Markets data show. Phosphate supplies into
India, including freight costs, have climbed more than 30% since
the start of the Iran war, according to price assessment data
from Argus Media Group.
Read More: Fertilizer Shock Escalates as New Supply Risks
Emerge.
“Because India subsidizes phosphate, the nutrient is still
affordable to Indian farmers but can the Indian government
afford these prices?,” said Alexis Maxwell, a senior analyst
with Bloomberg Intelligence. The government has absorbed the
higher subsidy costs in the past and that indicates they may do
so again this year, she said.
If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed in May, that would
affect buyers in July and August, Maxwell said, adding that
India imports the majority of its DAP in the second half of the
year.
India also procured 2.5 million tons of urea in a recent
tender, paying nearly double pre-war levels. The purchases are
coming at a crucial period ahead of sowing for monsoon crops
such as rice, corn and soybeans.
Pupuk to hold sales tender on 11 May for two lots of 15kt prills ex-Lhokseumawe, loading third week of May
LCB Sulphur Market Analysis
8th May 2026
Market Snapshot
China Benchmark: 6,866.67 CNY/t (record high; ~+180% YoY)
Indonesia Landed Pricing: $915+/mt (critical shortage conditions)
DRC/Zambia Acid Pricing: $1,000+/mt (extreme regional premiums)
Global Inventory: Critically low (continuing to decline)
Prices
FOB ME: $753
CFR China: $910
Market Condition
The global sulphur market has entered an acute supply lock-up phase, with availability tightening across all major supply corridors simultaneously. Conditions have deteriorated beyond a standard tight market, with physical scarcity now overriding conventional pricing mechanisms.
The current environment is characterised by fragmented trade flows, shrinking inventories, and escalating competition for accessible material.
Supply Chain Breakdown
Three major supply hubs continue to drive the imbalance:
China: The effective withdrawal of Chinese sulphuric acid exports has removed a substantial portion of internationally traded supply, forcing importing regions to seek replacement material in an already constrained market.
Middle East: The continued disruption to Gulf logistics has paralysed one of the world’s primary sulphur export corridors, significantly reducing seaborne availability.
Russia & Turkey: Ongoing export restrictions are further tightening Mediterranean and European supply balances.
Together, these disruptions have created a structurally undersupplied market with limited flexibility.
Logistics & Trade Flow
Shipping conditions remain severely impaired. Cargoes originating from the Gulf face extended transit times, rerouting costs, and elevated freight risk, while alternative origins are struggling to absorb displaced demand.
This has created a widening disconnect between theoretical supply and physically deliverable material, with buyers increasingly prioritising logistics security over price considerations.
Industrial Pressure Points
The supply shortage is now materially impacting industrial operations:
Nickel & Battery Materials: Indonesian HPAL operations remain under significant pressure, with production curtailments emerging as acid availability tightens.
Copper Mining: Smaller miners reliant on spot acid procurement are facing margin compression, while larger producers remain partially insulated through long-term supply agreements.
Agriculture & Fertilisers: Elevated sulphuric acid costs are feeding directly into phosphate fertiliser pricing, increasing concerns around agricultural affordability and broader food inflation later in the year.
The market is increasingly transitioning from cost inflation into operational disruption.
Overview
Spot market liquidity remains exceptionally thin. Inventory holders are maintaining firm positions, while buyers compete aggressively for any verified, deliverable cargoes.
Traditional benchmarks are becoming less representative of executable trade levels, particularly in regions facing acute logistical constraints.
Forward Outlook
There is currently no indication of a meaningful near-term easing in supply conditions. Structural deficits across sulphur and sulphuric acid markets are expected to persist, particularly as industrial and agricultural demand continues to compete for limited supply.
The market is likely to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, freight disruptions, and export policy changes through the remainder of 2026.
Closing View
The sulphur market has moved decisively into a phase where physical access to material outweighs all other considerations. With inventories critically low and supply routes constrained, participants with secure logistics and contracted supply hold a significant strategic advantage in an increasingly fragmented global market.
-GLOBAL UREA MARKETS HAVE COOLED, AND IT APPEARS PRICES ARE UNDER PRESSURE
-AFFORDABILITY IS PLAYING HARDBALL ON PROCESSED PHOSPHATE MARKETS DESPITE LIMITED SUPPLY. THE MARKET IS AWAITING A SOLUTION TO THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND RESUMPTION OF CHINESE EXPORTS
-POTASH PRICES ARE INCREASING IN KEY MARKETS
-YARA AND MOSAIC SETTLED THE MAY SUPPLY CONTRACT AT USD 825 PMT CFR, UP USD 50 PMT FROM THE APRIL SETTLEMENT. INDIA HAS ANNOUNCED AN UNPRECEDENTED 521,000 MT AMMONIA TENDER.
UREA
The global urea sentiment is cooling and filled with huge uncertainty, with the Strait of Hormuz maintaining center stage. According to reliable shipping information, 20 fully loaded urea ships bound for Australia are stuck in the Arab Gulf. The combined volume on these ships could reach 600,000 MT. In addition, there are reportedly 20,000 people on 1,600 ships in the Arab Gulf, and a humanitarian crisis is emerging.
Following the India tender, markets have gone quiet, and demand is influenced by affordability and the looming El Niño, which could lead to dry conditions in the southern hemisphere and, in turn, affect fertilizer demand in major consuming countries like Australia and Thailand.
India is reportedly set to launch a new urea import tender at the end of May or early June. Total imports of urea to India for the current campaign, between April 2025 and March 2026, reached a record of 10.38 million MT – up 4.73 million MT from the same period last year. Domestic production is down 1.33 million MT to 29.31 million MT from the same period last year, due to lower LNG availability for urea producers.
The above numbers underscore the importance of India as a guarantor of urea trading liquidity and, of course, the ongoing price trajectory. The Indian government's talk of becoming self-reliant in urea is a foregone conclusion, nano urea included – no surprise!
In other news, Iranian urea exports appear undisturbed, with several vessels arriving in Southeast Asia at prices well below the international market price. The current official urea price in Iran has dropped to USD 705 PMT FOB, down from USD 770 PMT FOB previously. There are continued discussions between Iran and the US to end the war, and one of the conditions is that all sanctions will be lifted in Iran, including urea exports. If this happens, Iran’s export potential of 9 million MT will change trade routes and patterns, putting the other urea producers in a different spotlight with severe implications for pricing.
Urea prices in US/NOLA are continuing to decline on the back of 1.3 million MT imported in March. This is up 25% year on year, with Q1 imports reaching 2.57 million MT, up 15% year on year. In addition, the weather in major urea-consuming areas has not been conducive to consumption. The current urea price is around USD 585 per short ton FOB in the barge. There are also discussions that re-exports of urea for the India tender will take place, with a volume of around 120,000 MT.
A peculiar sale of 6,000 MT of granular urea was reported by fertilizer magazines in Malaysia, citing Petronas, at USD 790 PMT FOB, which would be USD 120 PMT less than the previous sale reported in the region by BIF Brunei. Insiders, however, claim that this price is net of claims compensation for past shipments.
The government of Egypt has announced that from May 5th, a USD 90 PMT export duty will apply to urea and other nitrogen products. This aligns with the timing of fertilizer applications in the domestic market.
China is still not making any move to export urea despite the high international price. Decisions on when urea exports will resume are not known; thus, rumors and speculations still mushroom.
As no surprise, the international urea market is dictated by the White House and the outcome of discussions between the US and Iran. Eventually, the Strait of Hormuz will open, and markets will gradually revert to stability; until then, it is anyone's guess where the rabbit will jump!
PHOSPHATES
Despite a global shortage of phosphorus fertilizers and tight, high-priced raw materials, buyers worldwide are increasingly resisting price increases, given exceptionally poor affordability. Still, unless the Strait of Hormuz rapidly re-opens and/or China relaxes its export policy – both of which were viewed as slightly more likely by some players this week – prices are still set to climb higher over the coming weeks and months.
The key focus this week was on an unprecedented tender from India's IPL for 1.2 Mt DAP and 0.4 Mt TSP, which drew offers of 2.325 Mt from 18 suppliers and 410,000 t TSP from four. The lowest offers (L1s) of DAP were at $930/t CFR West Coast India (WCI) for 30,000 t and $935/t CFR East Coast India (ECI) for 40,000 t, both submitted by Indagro, while TSP L1s were both submitted by OCP at $770/t CFR WCI for 150,000 t and $775/t CFR ECI for 150,000 t. Though the volume offered is well above what most market participants expected, even the L1s are significantly higher last India DAP business at $865/t CFR. The importer could likely secure the full DAP requirement around $930-970/t CFR, based on the offer levels, but it is not clear it would be willing to pay as high a price. India does not typically issue phosphate tenders of this scale, but may have been moved to do so by a lack of progress in direct offtake negotiations with Morocco's OCP, possibly encouraged by the large volume secured via the latest urea tender. The price increase should come as no surprise, as the global market is likely facing an annual supply reduction on a scale never seen before.
The December news that China would temporarily halt DAP, MAP, and NP exports until August had already emboldened bulls in the market by creating a tight supply outlook, and the country widened export restrictions in March to include other fertilizers such as SSP and TSP. Market participants' expectations for Chinese phosphate exports in 2026 had turned increasingly bearish, with an increasing number of sources fearing China may halt DAP/MAP/NP exports through the end of this year due to the influence of sulphur prices on domestic fertilizer values and production. Still, some unconfirmed rumours began circulating this week about a possible resumption in exports. Major phosphate producers will go to Beijing for a meeting this Friday and Saturday, with more information expected to be revealed in the coming days, local sources said.
Granular phosphate prices are expected to climb further over the coming weeks and months due to exceptionally tight availability of finished product and raw materials. Poor affordability remains the key factor limiting upside in prices
POTASH
Potash prices in Brazil and China rose marginally this week, driven by a slight uptick in demand and tighter supply, though growing near-term headwinds prevented further gains in the spot market.
Brazilian MOP prices were assessed in a wider range at $400-410/t CFR this week, compared with last week’s assessment of $400-408/t CFR, but suppliers are likely to struggle to sell material above the upper end of the new range, some sources said. A significant amount of potash for the upcoming Safrinha season has already been purchased by farmers, and some sources suggest demand in the field is beginning to slow down. In response, distributors are struggling to close deals, as buyers increasingly resist offers above $410/t CFR. Having built up stocks and taken positions for the upcoming season, Brazilian end-users are adopting a more cautious stance.
In Asia, prices in most markets remained stable, except in China. Following the Labor Day holiday, buying inquiries for MOP in China increased, despite the spring application season already having concluded. China’s port wholesale MOP prices were assessed higher at RMB3,000-3,550/t FCA, with the average price of RMB3,275/t ($482/t) FCA, up from last week's assessment of RMB3,000-3,530/t FCA.
Activity in other Southeast Asian markets was largely quiet, with few deals reported. Southeast Asian MOP prices were unchanged at $380-400/t CFR for standard grade and $410-450/t CFR for granular grade MOP.
MOP prices are expected to rise marginally as farmers capitalize on relative affordability and build buffer stocks ahead of potential price increases. The near-term risk is to the upside, as buying levels remain elevated despite rising prices across other fertilizers, due to potash's relative affordability.
AMMONIA
Global ammonia markets were relatively quiet this week, with European holidays dampening activity in the Atlantic. The absence of confirmed trades in Northwest Europe continued, with the $905/t CFR ex-Egypt deal from a fortnight ago still the last transacted level, despite offers pushing to $915/t CFR.
The broader picture highlights a divergence between east and west of Suez. In the Atlantic, North African supply remains constrained, Trinidad tonnes are largely committed, and demand from nitrates producers is steady.
East of Suez, by contrast, is more volatile. India's IPL consortium tender for 521,000 t – the first of its kind – reflects the urgency of the procurement situation as the Kharif season approaches and individual tenders continue to fail. Spot offers into Taiwan and China have been reported as high as $850/t CFR, while South Korean values are reported in the $750-770/t CFR range. The spread can be attributed to the different supply access each market has, with South Korea drawing on Chinese spot tonnes and Taiwan, China, reliant on Indonesian material. PAU's five-week turnaround began on 6 May and will remain down for up to 5 weeks. Petronas remains offline, expected to return to the market next week. Yara's Pilbara facility is now not expected to return until early June following reported extended repairs, all compounding an already stretched supply picture east of Suez.
The May Tampa settlement at $825/t CFR, up $50/t from April, confirmed that the Atlantic market remains tight but that the pace of month-on-month increases is moderating compared to April's $160/t jump. The more measured move may reflect both growing US Gulf export supply and expectations that domestic demand will begin to taper off.
Ammonia values are expected to remain elevated in the near term, with east-of-Suez markets carrying the greater upside risk amid supply outages and the approaching Kharif demand season. Any meaningful correction depends on a resumption of Hormuz transit.
China Morning Briefing 2026-5-8
❤Urea: Yesterday, the overall sentiment in the domestic urea market was relatively weak. Main market enterprises continued to show signs of price flexibility. Downstream traders became more cautious about the future, but generally maintained a rational follow-up attitude. However, considering that some regions still have ample pending orders and there are expectations of maintenance work on the supply side, the market’s flexibility will be limited in the short term.
❤Synthetic Ammonia: The domestic synthetic ammonia market experienced mixed trends yesterday. Supported by port congestion, certain prices in Hubei Province showed a slight rebound. However, agricultural demand remained weak. Overall, high-end shipments across various regions faced pressure. Some ammonia producers experienced slight inventory pressure. Currently, regional interconnectedness has increased, and lower-priced sources are exerting pressure. It is expected that high-end stockpiles may decline today.
❤Ammonium chloride: The domestic market for ammonium chloride was relatively weak yesterday. Although some caustic soda production facilities were idled for maintenance, supply was tightened. However, the operating rates of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises continued to decline, and their enthusiasm for purchasing ammonium chloride was low. Short-term demand constraints are likely to affect the negotiation of new orders for ammonium chloride, although a slight decline cannot be ruled out.
❤Ammonium sulfate: The domestic market for ammonium sulfate was characterized by strong caution yesterday. Affected by stable demand for Brazilian granules, domestic purchasing sentiment remained cautious. The crystal market remained strong, and new information will be needed to guide the market in the short term. It is expected that the ammonium sulfate market will experience minor adjustments in the near term.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: The domestic market for monoammonium phosphate fertilizer was stable yesterday, with no significant price changes. In Hubei, the price of 55% powder was reported at 4,300 yuan/ton, but few transactions took place. The raw material sulfur is experiencing a period of high volatility, and a relevant conference is scheduled to be held. Market sentiment has been affected, so it is advisable to wait and observe further developments until clearer information becomes available.
The domestic diammonium phosphate market continued to remain stable and cautious yesterday. The raw material prices remained high, and the pressure on costs continued to be significant. However, downstream demand was generally sluggish, and new orders were relatively weak. The market remained in a state of cautious observation, and the market is expected to maintain a consolidating trend in the short term.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: The domestic phosphate fertilizer market has maintained a strong and stable trend. Although there has been some imported supplementation of potassium chloride, the available supply in the market remains limited. As a result, traders continue to be cautious about selling. The market price of sulfuric acid potassium fertilizer has experienced slight fluctuations, with prices in some regions having increased slightly. Currently, the factory price of 52% powder from the Mannheim process ranges from 4,200 to 4,350 yuan/ton.
❤Compound fertilizers: The domestic compound fertilizer market saw a narrow range of fluctuations yesterday. Supported by raw material cost pressures, companies maintained strong pricing; however, midstream and downstream operations were cautious, and new orders in the market may not improve immediately. It is expected that the compound fertilizer market will continue to stagnate and consolidate in the short term, as it processes earlier orders. Pay close attention to policy-related news.
<img src="https://www.staging.aquifert.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot-2026-05-07-at-09.31.27-300×291.png" alt="IPL Urea tender nominated Vessel List" width="300" height="291" class="size-medium wp-image-2167" /> IPL Urea tender nominated Vessel List
China Daily Review: On May 7, the national market price of urea showed a slight decline. Overall, upstream quotations remained at the guidance level. Some enterprises began to lower their prices due to reduced advance payments. Downstream entities should exercise caution when selecting low-priced purchases. A sense of pessimism has spread from the north to the south.
On May 7, 2026, the national daily production of urea was 225,200 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 89.79%. Overall, the market was experiencing weakness.
summary of the news we talked today as blow
1. For SSP/TSP/DSP: Almost all the goods that have passed the legal inspection have been loaded onto the ship. As far as I know, the SSP passed CIQ permission that can be shipped in May to July do not exceed 30,000 tons.
According to the information conveyed by the customs to the producers today, SSP, TSP and DSP that applied for CIQ before March 14th but have not yet been approved will obtain the legal inspection certificates within 60 to 90 working days starting from May 1st. This means that the earliest supply and delivery period will be after August.
2. The National Development and Reform Commission will organize a meeting on 7th- 9th May to discuss quotas for all self-disciplined enterprises.
3. Ammonium sulfate will be under the control of the legal inspection/ CIQ permission and the specific details will be announced on the 20th May.