urea – Nigeria / US
ACCT INDAGRO
30000 10 BLK UREA
LEKKI/NOLA
2/5 APRIL
3500 SHINC/8000 SHINC
Morning. India's return bringing buyers back in on Urea mkts. Int'l paper – trading activity across May Brazil/AG y'day, while bid//ask ranges moved higher in Egypt. In Nola, loaded barges and April paper traded $10+ from day prior.
AG
Apr $360//$370
May $355//$365 – traded $360
Jun $340//$355
Brazil
Apr $360//$375
May $360//$370 – traded $370
Jun $350//$365
Aug $360//$370
Sep $360//$370
Egypt
Apr $375//$383
May $360//$375
Jun $350//$360
Nola
Phys: Loaded traded $376, 380, 384, Apr $372, $372
Apr $370//$380 – traded $370, $371, $373, $375
May $345//$367
Jun $332//$355
Aug $330//$345
Q3 $330//$350
April $380 Call traded $5
UAN Nola
Apr $310//$330
May $300//$320
Jun $290//$315
Q2 $285//$300
DAP Nola
Apr $580//$610
May $582//$600
Jun $575//$600
-UREA PRICES REACTED POSITIVELY to THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF ANOTHER 1.5 MILLION MT UREA TENDER IN INDIA ALTHOUGH PRODUCERS ARE YET OUT OF THE WOODS TO CELEBRATE WITH MARCH APRIL VOLUMES STILL TO BE PLACED
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES ARE ON THE RICE ON THE BACK OF HUGE INCREASES IN SULPHUR PRICES AS WELL AS INCREASED PHOSPHORIC ACID CONTRACT IN INDIA
-POTASH PRICES IN SE ASIA EXPECTED TO RISE AFTER THE CONCLUSION OF RAMADAN WITH PALM PLANTATIONS COMING BACK INTO THE MARKET FOR FRESH VOLUMES
The slide in urea prices has come to an end at least temporarily with IPL of India announcing a 1.5 mill MT urea tender to close on the 8th of April with validity to the 15th of April and shipments through June 12th. The reaction on prices was swift with the paper market in the Middle East April futures up USD 9 PMT from the last settlement and May up USD 13 PMT. On the physical side Oman apparently sold a cargo to Australia at USD 363 PMT FOB for May shipment. MOPCO of Egypt sold a small cargo for 2nd half April at USD 370 PMT which is up between USD 1-5 PMT. However, for comparison, a mid February urea cargo changed hands in Egypt at USD 459 PMT FOB thus the market has lots of recovery to do. However, the big issue will be China and when they will resume international shipments. With the long shipment period until June 12th on the India tender, China may come into play although everything points in the direction that this could still be too soon since the domestic market in China will not be over by then. In the event Chinese products come into the market it could put enormous pressure on prices yet again. In summary, it is too early to make a definitive call on urea prices since Middle East producers and others in North Africa have yet to place March April products.
Production cost of processed phosphate went up exponentially with Qatar Energy increasing sulphur prices by USD 73 PMT for April shipment to USD 275 FOB vs USD 166 PMT in January 2025. For comparison the February 2022 sulphur price was USD 428 PNT FOB. In addition, JPMC of Jordan and Coromandel of India have confirmed a new phosphoric acid 100% P2O5 price of USD 1,153 PMT CFR which is up USD 98 PMT from last done. Obviously, this price is a reflection of sulphur prices with sulphur being an important input to make phosphoric acid. Further, DAP prices in India are going up with the latest sale reported at USD 650 PMT CFR, up USD 17 PMT since the start of the year. Latest offers in India are said to be around USD 660-680 PMT CFR. On the back of Chinese producers not taking part in international business, other producers are now taking advantage of this supported by higher production costs. China is expected to come back into the market some time in April or May. The long awaited OCP and India arrangement of a 1.5-1.6 million MT supply agreement on DAP and TSP is still not concluded yet the parties have been in discussion since December 2024. Apparently, the disagreement is around the pricing of the TSP which will make up around 800,000 MT of the arrangement. Shipments were expected between February – December 2025. Moroccan phosphates fertilizer producer OCP's subsidiary OCP Nutricrops plans to increase fertilizer production capacity by 9mn t/yr by 2028, with 4.5mn t/yr operational as early as 2026, it said on 26 March.
In other news, OCP Nutricrops will build two new mining and industrial facilities, Mzinda and Meslaka. The two hubs will focus on TSP and TSP+, which refers to TSP with micronutrients. The company's current phosphates production capacity is around 15mn t/yr.
The two sites are designed to operate entirely on renewable energy sources, with the use of advanced technologies, artificial intelligence and automated production processes, according to OCP Nutricrops.
The project is aimed at strengthening the OCP Nutricrops' vision and leadership in customised fertilizer production, while aligning with the OCP Group's strategic sustainability goals, the group said.
Brazil MAP prices are also going up with the latest conclusion at around the USD 660 PMT CFR mark, up USD 5 w on w and last week prices went up USD 15 PMT CFR. Now producers are offering USD 670 PMT CFR.
Potash prices increased in Southeast Asia, the US, and Northwest Europe ahead of Q2, as supply outside the US begins to tighten slightly with limited prompt offers. Southeast Asian standard potash prices rose to $315-330/t CFR this week, driven by increased demand from palm oil plantation tenders. April offers remained limited, with expectations that they may range from $340-350/t CFR. Prices are expected to continue rising in the coming weeks due to tightness in the Q2 market and favourable palm oil prices, which could further boost demand. Potash prices in Northwest Europe increased this week due to higher second-quarter contract prices. Standard MOP prices rose to €327.5/t CIF, while granular MOP reached €350/t CIF, the highest levels since May 2024. Sales surged last week as buyers secured product before the higher Q2 prices. In the Northwest European SOP market, standard prices remained stable this month at €570- 590/t FCA. Prices are expected to rise modestly in Q2 due to increasing costs, particularly higher MOP prices, though producers may proceed cautiously given the already high price levels. The Brazilian MOP market saw little change this week as the slow inland market limited CFR business. Prices stayed at an average of $337.5/t, the highest since 4 April 2024. Offers for May range between $340-355/t CFR, though no deals above $340/t CFR have been reported yet. In the US market, demand remains positive across the board, with ample supply. Nutrien raised its price to $370/st FOB for all terminals in the Midwest on 24 March, driven by strong spring demand. The NOLA potash market saw a price increase this week, reaching $315- 320/st FOB. The outlook for potash prices in SE Asia is bullish with palm plantations coming back into the market from Eid celebrations.
The ammonia market remains largely oriented to the downside, with supply more than ample enough to cover the small pockets of demand seen globally. Bearish sentiment was further amplified by news this week from Tampa, where Yara and Mosaic settled April’s contract at yet another decline, although one not as substantial as some may have been expecting. Whilst most had suspected the $460/t CFR number for March would indeed decline, the $25/t downward correction to $435/t CFR – the lowest figure since July 2024 – appears relatively modest considering latest news from elsewhere in the US Gulf. After years of delays, the 1.3 Mt/year Gulf Coast Ammonia (GCA) facility in Texas finally looks set to commence exports, with Yara’s Dancing Brave scheduled to depart Texas City late 27 March with the plant’s maiden export shipment. However, it remains unclear under which basis Yara has procured the tonnes from GCA/offtake partner Mabanaft, with clarity tentatively awaited.
Production of ammonia in Europe is facing a gloomy outlook. Yet another producer, Achema of Lithuania has decided to curtail their ammonia production until further notice claiming that they are unable to compete with third party ammonia coming in from Africa and Russia. The company says that European producers are at a massive disadvantage relying on the European TTF gas index plus CO2 emission costs which currently ammonia imported from another continent does not have to pay. The company says that the fertilizer industry in Europe as well as the food industry will suffer significantly in the future as more closures of ammonia production take place.
Prices should remain positioned towards the downside, with little upside support forecast moving into Q2.
Stein Chingen Haugan
Managing Director
fertiMetrics pte ltd
Mobile / Whats App: +65 8328 7681 – Singapore
Email: stein@fertimetrics.com
Skype: steinhaugan1955
WeChat: stein0813
Line: steinh
www.fertimetrics.com
Council Member World Agriculture Forum
LONDON (ICIS)– The Tampa ammonia contract price has been settled for April at $435/tonne CFR. The price, agreed between contract partners Yara and Mosaic, is a $25/tonne decrease from $460/tonne CFR in March.
Ammonia prices keep coming down, urea seems to have bottomed for now, sulphur is shooting up, phosphates and potash are firm globally.
Crushed lump sulphur cfr China price
Around 275-280
LONDON (ICIS)—In Egypt, MOPCO sold 6,000 tonnes of granular urea at $370/tonne FOB for second half April. Before this there had been talk of business at $364-365/tonne FOB from Egypt and the 359 FOB which was denied
26 MAR 2025 : MGC UPDATE
BALTIC
BLPG2 Index ($/MT)
(US Gulf to Continent)
VL : $55.75 , TCE $52k/day
At same $/ton
MGC (38k) : TCE $16k/day
MGC (40k Conv) : TCE $21k/day
MGC (40k DF) : TCE $23k/day
CLK ASSESSED MGC SHORT TC
H/F :Mid-high $60s/pmt
CLK ASSESSED MGC 12M TC
38k : TCE $875k pcm
40k Conv : TCE $950k pcm
40k DF : TCE $1,025k pcm
FIXTURES / MARKET INFO :
_Exmar Update:_
– Warisoulx (38k cbm) T/C option not exercised by Vitol and she's due open mid-April in WAFR, sub discharge rotation/ops
_EPS Update:_
– Ontario (38k cbm) is open back in USG approx. 9th of April AGW, depending on final discharge in Callao / Panama transit
– Winnipeg fixed for a short T/C in Ammonia
_Solvang Update:_
– Clipper Moon (2003 built LGC) fixed to Geogas for short t/c, 2-4 months – RNR
OWNER POSITIONS :
_NWE_
Astor (40k) – 8-10 April ARA : _ETA MH 18-20 Apr/USG 23-25 Apr_
_MED/WAFR_
Sifnos Lady (39.5k) – PPT GIB : _ETA MH 5 Apr/USG 9 Apr_
Oceanic Star (35k) – 28 Apr GIB/EMED (L/C NH3)
Oceanic Breeze (35k) – 3 Apr – 3 June NWE/GIB (L/C NH3)
Oceanic Moon (35k) – 7 Apr – 7 May NWE/GIB (L/C NH3)
Clipper Jupiter (60k) – 8 – 10 April – Setubal (ex Drydock) – _ETA MH 17-19 Apr/USG 21-23 Apr_
Warisoulx (38k) – Mid Apr WAFR
_USG/Caribs_
Lkey (38k) – PPT Rio Grande : _ETA MH +17 days /USG +19 days_
Ontario (38k) – 9 – 10 April USG
_East_
Severin Schulte (38k) – 1H April
Anafi (35k) – 30 Mar Fujairah
Morning. IPL news brought some support back to the mkt y'day; AG/Egypt paper values up $10+/- before tone cooled off by COB. Nola saw similar gains – loaded barges traded $370-$372.
AG
Apr $355//$365 – traded $369, $370
May $348//$360 – traded $361
Jun $340//$355
Brazil
Apr $355//$367
May $350//$360
Jun $350//$360
Aug $355//$370
Sep $360//$370
Egypt
Apr $362//$375
May $358//$363 – traded $363
Jun $350//$357
Nola
Phys: Loaded traded $370, $372. FH Apr $372.
Apr $363//$370 – traded $365
May $335//$362
Jun $342//$355
Aug $325//$340
Q3 $325//$345
UAN Nola
Apr $300//$320
May $292//$310
Jun $290//$310
Q2 $285//$300
DAP Nola
Apr $580//$610
May $582//$600
Jun $575//$600
Some market informations FYI
1. Indian P-acid settled at $1,153/t P2O5 cfr India for Q2 (up by $98/t p2o5 from Q1). crazy!!!
2. Copper prices have risen 27% so far this year, which will further stimulate copper demand.
3. There has also been a spate of new smelters under construction in countries such as China, India, Indonesia and parts of Africa as nations attempt to provide security over their domestic copper demand. the means that will be increasing a lot of sulphuric acid of demand.
4. the international phosphates fertilizers still keep increasing due to the strong demand.
Based on the above situation, the demand for sulfur will be further supported. We still seggest that better you can make some order for you stock early at before the end of June.
FYI
QatarEnergy posted its Qatar Sulphur Price (QSP) for April at $275/t FOB. This is an increase of $73/t from the price set for March.
This new QSP reflects delivered levels to China in the low-to-mid 290s/t CFR at current freight rates.
The price for March was set at $202/t FOB, marking a $30/t increase from the February price of $172/t FOB, which had already risen from the January price of $166/t FOB.
The current QSP is now the highest since July 2022, which was set at $428/t FOB.
*Freight steady*
No major changes in rates.
*Demand surges*
Importers are seeking 19+ tons.
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
<img src='https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1506744038136-46273834b3fb' alt='Demo image' style='max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:8px;margin-top:10px;'>