*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
While Monaco is world famous for its culture of risk taking and high stakes, ammonia market participants at this week’s industry conference in the wealthy principality opted to stick, not twist when it came to stepping up to the table and striking deals.
The reluctance to conclude business, or even show their hands in many cases, comes amid conflicting views over the state of the market.
Suppliers point to an uptick in Indian import demand, capacity curtailments in Saudi Arabia and a recent sale out of the kingdom at a decent premium – albeit for a trader heard to have secured a favourable freight rate on a newbuild for a delivery to North Africa – for their bullish view.
However, that positive outlook is countered by buyers who argue the market remains very well supplied and demand soft, particularly given the muted industrial demand in key import hubs throughout Northeast Asia.
This bearish stance also highlights the likelihood of the usual seasonal hike in US Gulf exports soon, while the number of carriers being redelivered or sitting idle awaiting instructions also points to slowing order books.
Contrasting views push market into lower gear
Given the strong difference of opinion, a stalemate has emerged, with neither buyers nor sellers willing to make the first move.
Lengthy plant shutdowns in Saudi Arabia and Indonesia have also spooked some buyers East of Suez, but soft industrial demand in Asia Pacific continues to act as a brake on spot deliveries to countries including South Korea, China and Taiwan.
Back in the West, supply is strong and demand stable to soft. The only confirmed June cfr spot price to date was announced several weeks ago and involved Trammo’s $400pt cfr sale of 23-25,000t to Morocco’s OCP Group.
Several cargoes for May shipment into Europe have also emerged in recent days, but as is often the case of late, no prices have been shared. There are also suggestions a heavily discounted Iranian cargo could arrive in Turkey next month, but the alleged sale at $340pt cfr remains unconfirmed for now.
Once leading names return to their desks after the conference in the south of France, deals are expected to be agreed as supplies seek to shift inventory rather than cut capacity, though whether it is vendors or buyers who have an ace up their sleeve remains to be seen.
China fast port to brazil freight 19.5
Kaltim 365-367 with OE 395 – HeartyChem bid 380 for a tiny lot – useless
Aquifert Freight Analytics WEEK 20: Which trade routes are being checked out…
UREA Vessels RFQ – Trade Routes
2 x AG to India
2 x AG to Djibouti
2 x AG to Sri Lanka
2 x AG to Thailand
AG to Australia
AG to Turkey
3 x Iran to Myanmar
2 x Iran to Turkey
Iran to Tanzania
Egypt to Bulgaria
Egypt to Italy
3 x Egypt to Turkey
Egypt to Slovenia
Egypt to UK
2 x Russia to Bulgaria
Russia to Turkey
Algeria to India
2 x Algeria to Brazil
Netherlands to Germany (YARA)
Norway to France (YARA)
2 x Indonesia to Myanmar
China to Korea
Vietnam to Korea
TOTAL RFQ UREA VSLS : 36
All Fertiliser Types – Quick Summary
Chinese amsul being priced up in Thailand, Vietnam and India
MAP in Bulgaria heading to Ukraine or Turkey
Georgian AN looking for a home in Israel, Vietnamese AN heading to Pakistan and Korean AN for Myanmar
Aussie DAP on offer to 2 port India (IPL)
50kt Canadian Sulphur being priced for Asia
[Urea] On May 16, the urea industry produced 202,800 tons per day, down 0.04 million tons from the previous working day and up 28,800 tons from the same period last year; today's start-up rate was 87.93%, up 7.56% from 80.37% last year.
UREA MARKETS ARE IN LIMBO OVER INDECISION ON EXPORTS FROM CHINA ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT 2 MILLION MT WILL BE MADE AVAILABLE IN THE EXPORT WINDOW MAY TO SEPTEMBER ATTACHED WITH CAVEATS ON EXPORT PRICES TIED TO THE CHINESE DOMESTIC MARKET
-DAP AND MAP PRICES ARE DRIVEN BY LACK OF EXPORTS FROM CHINA BUT IT APPEARS THAT 2 MILLION MT OF DAP AND 1 MILLION MT OF MAP WILL BE MADE AVAILABLE BETWEEN MAY TO SEPTEMBER, DOWN FROM 6.5 MILLION MT YEAR ON YEAR
-POTASH PRICES REMAIN STABLE TO FIRM WITH CONTRACT PRICING IN INDIA, CHINA AND INDONESIA HAVING AN IMPACT ON FUTURE PRICES
-AMMONIA PRICE DISCOVERY IS NON-EXISTENT AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT FURTHER PRICE DECLINES ARE IN THE PIPELINE
The fertilizer industry at large convened this week at the International Fertilizer Association annual meeting in Monaco. As a result trading activity has been mostly absent with the export situation for urea in China a focal point. Rumors have been flying left right and centre with no official guidance from official sources in China. However, today on May 15th the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Association (CNFA) helt a meeting to discuss the urea export quota allocation. It has emerged that the application period for export inspection certificates to be submitted at the factory level is between May and September with a deadline for customs declaration on October 15th. The validity period for export certificates will be one month after approval. The quota allocation is for 2 million MT which is far below the initially reported 4 million MT. Whether an additional quota will be issued in the future will depend on the self regulatory success of the current quota. Further, another caveat is that exx factory prices must not exceed those of May 6th when prices were approximately RMB 1,850 PMT (USD 255) ex warehouse in northern China for both prilled and granular urea. The start of the inspection application certificates has not yet been set but it is expected to be as early as next week. Another prohibition ,yet to be officially confirmed, is that India destinations will not be allowed. The opinion in the industry is that if India destinations are not allowed, where will the prilled urea go with limited SE Asia demand in the allocated export window. Three major state trading companies, SINOPEC, CNAMPGC, and CNCOO have each been allocated 200,000 MT with other 100 small state-owned companies sharing 1.4 million tons for a total of 2 million MT.
In other news Pupuk Indonesia will conduct an export tender on May 16th for 45,000 MT of granular urea with the expectations that they will export well in excess of 100,000 MT as per previous practice. With China in mind, it will be interesting to see at what price traders will expose themselves unless there is back to back buying interest in Australia and Thailand, both countries in the middle of their buying season. The last tender price was USD 402.50 PMT FOB and with China reported to have sold at USD 355 PMT FOB earlier this week, we may reasonably expect a much lower FOB number this time vs the last traded.
In other news MOPCO of Egypt has sold 5,000 MT at USD 390 PMT FOB for end May-early June shipment to Europe. This price is up from last week's assessed price at USD 385-390 PMT FOB.
The outlook for urea prices is bearish once the first exports of China come on stream, this until India again comes back into the market with a new tender.
The processed phosphate market is still plagued with limited supplies with Chinese exports still absent. Prices keep going up despite concerns of demand destruction amid exceptionally poor farmer affordability. Relief may be coming since it appears that Chinese producers have been given quotas for the May-September period with DAP albeit as low as 2 million MT and MAP at 1 million MT. If confirmed this volume will be down from the 6.5 million MT quota in 2024. In the full year of 2024 China exported 678,676 MT to India vs 3 million MT in 2023. China's Q1 2025 exports of 111,046 MT represents a 23 year low and 24% below the Q1 2024 level. Adding to the tightness of DAP in the market is EABC of Ethiopia announcing a wave of DAP tenders which soaks up any excess available volume.
India DAP latest sale is reported at USD 729 PMT CFR, up from latest trade of USD 720 PMT CFR. India is in dire need of DAP for the Kharif season and although they held out for a long time buyers are now coming to the market and paying up. In seven weeks, roughly 760,000 MT DAP has been sold to the Indian market with prices jumping an average of USD 83 PMT during the period.
MAP prices in Brazil are also on the move up with the latest price reported at USD 715 PMT CFR with Russian origin for June shipment. OCP of Morocco is still holding out for USD 740 PMT CFR.
The outlook for the processed phosphate prices is bullish over the immediate couple of months until China comes into the export market in earnest.
Granular MOP benchmarks rose slightly this week in Brazil, Southeast Asia, NW Europe and the US, as market players gathered for the annual International Fertilizer Association (IFA) conference. Potash took a backseat at the IFA event in Monte Carlo from 12-14 May, with the focus shifting mainly to China's urea and phosphate exports. With little movement in prices week on week, all attention turned to the upcoming MOP import contracts for China and India, which are set to shape the market for the next six months. The main focus this week was on China’s potash contract, where negotiations between importers and overseas suppliers continue. Rumours suggest a settlement range between $330-360/t CFR, marking a significant rise from the $273/t CFR agreed in July 2024. The country has been drawing down national reserves in response to strong domestic demand and supply tightening, exacerbated by production cuts from key suppliers. To mitigate this, the Chinese government stepped in, releasing 1.1 Mt via tenders from 10 March to 15 April to ease the supply pressure. India’s potash contract is expected to settle after China, with prices likely between $340- 360/t CFR. Current inventories of 225,000 t offer short-term relief, but India will need to secure more supplies soon. Despite this, buyers are reportedly waiting for China’s settlement to set the benchmark. In other regions, Southeast Asia is still awaiting an outcome for the Pupuk Indonesia tender, with market participants anxiously waiting for updates since the tender was floated on 14 April. The tender is expected to be finalised by 16 May, with awards anticipated at $360/t CFR. Rumours suggest the volume quantity may have been reduced from the original amount, although this remains unconfirmed. Brazilian potash prices have strengthened to $360-365/t CFR this week, though resistance to offers as high as $370/t CFR persists. Some market players have expressed concerns about a potential slowdown in price movement as the soybean buying season nears its end. Demand in the region from January through April has been record high, with roughly two thirds of the soybean potash needs already met.
The outlook for potash prices is stable to firm.
Ammonia remains finely poised following the conclusion of this week’s industry gathering in Monaco, with little in the way of transparent business to firmly shape price direction. Still, sentiment remains largely oriented to the downside, with supply still largely outweighing demand on both sides of the Suez.
Prices should extend declines in the West moving into June, though it appears benchmarks east of Suez may soon find a floor, provided they have not done so already
Since the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association issued the initiative to "strengthen industry self-discipline and benefit farmers", it has received the response of many enterprises. The production, sales and price of urea of key enterprises will be announced to the public. Enterprises that need to buy urea can contact these enterprises. If you find that any enterprise is reluctant to sell or the price is inconsistent with the information released, you can contact the Nitrogen Fertilizer Association. Contact number: 010-82032100.
On the evening of May 12, Yankuang Energy (600188.SH) and Yanhuang Lithium (000792.SZ) issued announcements one after another. In addition, a number of parties, including Australian Highlands Resources and EMR Capital, signed a "Letter of Intent for Project Cooperation." Yanhuang Lithium intends to subscribe for Highlands Resources' ordinary shares in the amount of about US$300 million in cash, becoming the largest shareholder of Highlands Resources and enjoying control over Highlands Resources upon delivery. At the same time, Yanhuang Lithium plans to realize its actual control over Yankuang Canada Resources Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Yankuang Canada"), Highlands Resources and its subsidiaries Southey Potash Mine Project and Muga Project through a series of governance arrangements. It is worth noting that when taking over Yanhuang Lithium, China Yanhuang has clearly defined a "three-step" development strategy, including the "formation of 10 million tons/year of potash capacity by 2030." So far, including Yanhuang Lithium and Minmetals Yanhuang, China Yanhuang has a total potash capacity of 5.3 million tons/year. Although the planned acquisition of the Southey Potash Mine Project and the Muga Project is in the greenfield development stage and has not yet been put into production, the total planned capacity of the first and second phases of the projects is as high as 3.8 million tons. Especially the Southey project, which is a world-class large-scale potash mine, and is located in the most concentrated area of global potash resources in Saskatchewan, Canada, with the characteristics of high grade and large ore layer thickness. If the above-mentioned acquisition can be smoothly promoted, the Southey project and the Muga project will also become an important part of China Yanhuang's realization of the 10 million tons of potash capacity target.
Currently, market sources put the talks between Chinese importers and their separate suppliers around the $340-350/tonne CFR (cost & freight) mark, up from $273/tonne CFR in the previous six-month contract – although further time remains for negotiations, with a conclusion expected in early June.
Some say it could be as high as 360cfr
Meeting notes:
Today, the self-discipline export meeting of the Agricultural Input Circulation Association ended, and the spirit of the meeting is as follows:
First, the National Development and Reform Commission uses, domestic priority, appropriate export, normal control, self-discipline and order, matching rights and responsibilities, rewards and punishments, and the 28-character principle of distinction between inside and outside to position this export.
Require stable domestic supply, strive for high interests abroad, and lead the organization of export negotiations by enterprises with experience and channels.
Second, the specific operation of the export plan
The association requires, voluntary commitment, unified organization, process supervision, and dynamic adjustment
It is required to meet the domestic fertilizer demand for agriculture, undertake the completion of the national commercial reserve, and export smoothly and orderly.
Regulations :
1. In two batches, May-July and August-September, subsequent exports depend on the implementation of this batch.
Complete the customs declaration by September 2.5, and complete the export customs declaration by October 15.
The export quota will be based on the number of national reserve tasks undertaken in 2024-2025, and the proportion of special contributions to stabilize prices may increase in the future.
Establish a minimum export guide price, requiring self-discipline enterprises to export a total volume not exceeding the self-discipline quota, and export prices not less than the export guide price
In the early stage of export, the origin law inspection will be implemented, and later, it will be adjusted according to the situation. The name of the shipper on the law inspection form is a self-discipline enterprise, and it needs to be reported to the association in advance. It can export in the form of self-organization + joint export + entrusted export (must be on the self-discipline list) and so on.
Export to report to the association three nodes, 1 before the declaration of law inspection, 2 after the issuance of vouchers, 3 within 3 working days after completing customs declaration
The export price is high, the domestic price reduction is good, and priority is given to export registration. Contribute to price stabilization, and the quota may be increased later.
Reward and Punishment: If the amount exceeds the quota, the self-discipline qualification will be canceled; if the submitted data is not true, the qualification will be canceled; if the legal inspection result is obtained but not exported, the corresponding quantity will be deducted from the next year's quota; if the association and other relevant departments remind and admonish, but still fail to implement, the qualification will be canceled; If the reserve task is not completed, the qualification will be canceled; Falsifying and concealing data, taking advantage of the opportunity to raise prices, not executing the contract, signing AB contract, etc., will cancel the qualification; If the self-discipline commitment obligation is not completed as required, the qualification will be canceled.
DAP Quota
YUC 600k+
GPC 500k+
YIHUA 400k+
XIANGFENG 300k+
XINGFA 100k+
others unclear
As of May 15, 2025 (the 20th week), China's urea port sample inventory: 163 thousand tons, an increase of 30,000 tons, an increase of 22.56%. In this cycle, Jinzhou Port small particles, Yantai Port large particles supply to the port, Tianjin Port sporadic goods from the port, the rest of the port no significant change, the overall port inventory continued to improve.
Delighted to be on this intel group
Thanks
Morning. As IFA conference concluded y'day, Int'l urea paper more supported than at start of the week, while Nola phys values have trended lower in thin mkts.
AG
May $370//$382
Jun $365//$385
Jul $365//$380
Q3 $360//$380
Cfr Brazil
May $372//$385
Jun $365//$378
Jul $385//$393 – traded $385
Aug $385//$400
Sep $375//$395
Egypt
May $370//$385
Jun $375//$390
Jul $375//$385
Nola
Phys FH June traded $410
Paper:
May $460//$470
Jun $380//$390
Jul $350//$360
Aug $340//$345
Sep $340//$350
Q4 $335//$360
UAN Nola
May $350//$360
Jun $340//$350
Aug $225//$275
Sep $225//$275
DAP Nola
May $635//$655
Jun $635//$660
Q3 $650//$665
Q4 $630//$655