Latest news: It is reported that the export details of urea will be announced this week, and formal inspection can be started immediately.
The export rhythm and the upper limit of the single inspection quantity are as follows: 1. Self-discipline enterprises with a self-discipline quantity of more than 10,000 tons shall not exceed 50% of the self-discipline quantity in the single inspection quantity, and enterprises with a self-discipline volume of less than 10,000tons shall not exceed 5,000 tons in the single inspection quantity. 2. Enterprises that receive orders and combine with other enterprises shall relax the upper limit of the single inspection volume to not exceed 60% of the self-disciple quantity. 3. Enterprises that receive orders with a price higher than the minimum guide price by more than 5 US dollars shall relax the upper limit of the self-discipline quantity to not exceed 65%. Please refer to the implementation! Later, it will be optimized and adjusted according to the implementation.
LONDON (ICIS)—Indonesia seems to have sold granular urea cargoes in the low $370s/tonne FOB for June shipment.
Morning. Gas restrictions/production cutbacks in Egypt saw higher phys sales reported ($400), and paper values firm up y'day. Jun AG traded $370, while July Brazil found value at $390 (+$5 from Fri). In Nola, May paper traded mid/upper-$440s, loaded/FH June phys values continued to slide.
AG
May $375//$385
Jun $362//$380 – traded $370
Jul $365//$375
Q3 $360//$375
cfr Brazil
May $377//$386
Jun $375//$385
Jul $385//$392 – traded $390s
Aug $380//$390
Egypt
May $385//$397
Jun $387//$405
Jul $375//$393
Nola
Phys: FH June traded $399
Paper:
May $440//$448 – traded $445-$448
Jun $370//$378
Jul $345//$360
Aug $340//$345
Sep $340//$350
Q4 $335//$360
UAN Nola
May $350//$360
Jun $340//$350
Aug $225//$275
Sep $225//$275
DAP Nola
May $650//$670
Jun $655//$670
Q3 $685//$695
Q4 $650//$675
MAP Brazil
May $700//$710
Jun $705//$720
Jul $710//$725
Aug $705//$725
[Both one-year and five-year LPRs have been reduced by 10 basis points] According to the Golden Ten Data on May 20, the People's Bank of China reduced the one-year and five-year loan market quotation rates (LPRs) from 3.1% and 3.6% to 3% and 3.5%, respectively.
[Urea] On May 20, the daily production of the urea industry was 201,500 tons, a decrease of 0.40 million tons from the previous working day and an increase of 28,500 tons from the same period last year; today's start-up rate was 87.61%, an increase of 7.70% from 79.91% last year.
NCIC sales tender:
DAP – 30kt
TSP – 17kt
SSP – 30kt
CAN – 10kt
Urea – 5kt
SOP – 1.5kt
Closing date: 24 May
LONDON (ICIS)—In Egypt, MOPCO sold 6,000 tonnes of granular urea at $400/tonne FOB for end of May/June loading. Don’t know more details.
LONDON (ICIS)—In Egypt, some urea plants have shut down completely due to gas issues, while others are operating at lower rates.
Urea update: buyers/imports around Europe seeing market weak, traders seeing market firm.
I am assuming this is on back of USA coming to market for major volumes after there record cron planting.
the major traders will think that the import demand over next weekd 1-2mil mts is enough to kepp market up.
The opposite side of the trade, you can pick up a urea cargo anywhere in world right now.
should you short June = NO.
short July yes
anything arriving in NOLA in July, will be for autumn application and will have missed the season
Notes from calls:
Yara AN price not sustainable
Algerian AOA has had quality issues recently
Abu Qir is worst quality of Egyptian producers
Black Sea urea = Italy and nearby markets
Black Sea not accepted in Spain France UK
Morning. Last week, China kept everyone on their toes, Int'l paper active on Brazil & Egypt (both traded higher), nearby Nola saw a large downward adjustment, as loaded barges traded to $460 by Fri, when Jun paper also repeat traded mid-$370s. Mkts framed:
AG
May $374//$385
Jun $360//$385
Jul $360//$380
Aug $360//$380
Cfr Brazil
May $374//$385
Jun $370//$385
Jul $380//$390 – traded $385 Fri
_[Jul traded $360-$390 last week]_
Aug $380//$390
_[Aug traded $385 Thurs]_
Egypt
May $376//$390
Jun $365//$385
_[Jun traded $370-$381 last week_
Jul $365//$385
Nola
Paper:
May $445//$455
Jun $372//$378 – traded $374-$375
Jul $345//$360
Aug $340//$345
Sep $340//$350
Q4 $335//$360
UAN Nola
May $350//$360
Jun $340//$350
Aug $225//$275
Sep $225//$275
DAP Nola
Phys May traded $680
May $635//$655
Jun $635//$660
Q3 $685//$695 – traded $690
Q4 $650//$675
MAP Brazil
May $700//$710
Jun $705//$720
Jul $710//$725
_[Jul traded $708 – $713 last week]_
Aug $705//$725
Malaysia has calculated the palm oil reference price for June 2025 at MYR 3926.59 per T, down from MYR 4449.35 per T in May 2025 and below the 10% threshold price of MYR 4050 per T and thus the export duties reduced to 9.5% from 10%. The export tax for June 2025 would be MYR 373.026 or $86.59 per T, in compared to MYR 444.935 or $100.89 per T in May 2025.
Since the China Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association issued the "Initiative on Strengthening Industry Self-Discipline to Guarantee Stable Supply of Fertilizer," it has received a positive response from most phosphate ammonium production enterprises, which have promised to ensure the supply of phosphate ammonium and stabilize the price of phosphate ammonium, and accept social supervision. If you find that phosphate ammonium production enterprises raise prices or hoard, you are welcome to report to the association. Supervision telephone: 010-82035207 (working hours), email: zglffgyxh@126.com
Phosphate Ammonium Product Guideline Price on May 18, 2025:
Guiding price of 64% diammonium phosphate in East China (first arrival station): 3950 yuan/ton;
Guiding price of 57% diammonium phosphate in North China (first arrival station): 3600 yuan/ton;
55% granular ammonium nitrate Hubei region guidance price (factory): 3,450 yuan/ton;
58% granular ammonium nitrate East China region guidance price (out of the factory): 3700 yuan/ton;
60% granular ammonium nitrate southwest region guidance price (factory price): 3850 yuan/ton.
Here is the English translation of the fertilizer industry early report from Longzhong Information for May 19, 2025:
⸻
Phosphorus Chemicals:
• Yellow Phosphorus:
Last week, the domestic yellow phosphorus market remained weak. In major production areas like Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan, mainstream ex-factory transaction prices were around ¥22,500–¥22,800/ton. Due to low bid prices from both upstream and downstream enterprises, bearish sentiment dominated the market. Downstream buyers set low target prices, causing unstable market sentiment and prompting some yellow phosphorus factories to cut prices. As a result, low-priced resources frequently appeared, and downstream buyers were waiting for further price drops. Today’s market is expected to remain weak and stable.
• Phosphoric Acid:
Prices for thermal-process phosphoric acid declined last week. Supply and demand fundamentals were weak, and a sharp fall in yellow phosphorus prices eroded cost support, leading to a stepwise decline in thermal acid prices. Though wet-process acid inventory was low, falling thermal acid prices negatively impacted new wet-process transactions. Some producers adjusted sales strategies, resulting in slight local price drops. In Sichuan, thermal-process purified phosphoric acid was quoted at ¥6,700/ton.
• Phosphate Rock:
The phosphate rock market stayed strong. With the implementation of export policies and improved downstream demand, market sentiment improved, and future expectations were optimistic. Short-term prices are expected to remain elevated.
⸻
Sulfur:
• Elemental Sulfur:
The domestic port spot market showed a weak downward trend last week. Price range was ¥2,550–¥2,560/ton, down ¥10 from the previous working day. Early in the week, domestic producers raised prices by ¥50 to ¥2,530/ton, but this fell short of expectations. A large domestic refinery’s tender prices declined twice, increasing market hesitation. Some end-users took this chance to bargain and push prices down. Later in the week, downstream demand picked up, but suppliers adjusted their sales strategies while awaiting phosphate fertilizer export quota policies. Overall, the market lacked upward momentum and is expected to remain stable or slightly adjusted.
• Sulfuric Acid:
The market showed mixed performance. In Yunnan, prices fell initially due to increased supply after maintenance shutdowns ended but later rose slightly due to good sales from earlier price cuts. Prices declined in Sichuan and Inner Mongolia due to weak demand and increased supply expectations. In Shandong, sulfuric acid sales were smooth, and prices increased ¥20/ton due to low inventories. As of now, smelter-grade sulfuric acid is priced at ¥590–¥660/ton in Hubei and ¥520–¥550/ton in Yunnan.
⸻
Nitrogen Fertilizers:
• Urea:
Urea prices increased last week. As market participants processed earlier information, sentiment normalized. Government supply guarantees led to stable factory quotes. With demand still present, prices may fluctuate based on short-term demand.
• Synthetic Ammonia:
Prices declined due to oversupply, causing increased inventory pressure. Prices continued to weaken over the weekend. In the short term, the market is expected to remain weak. Market watchers should focus on plant operation rates and profit margins.
• Ammonium Chloride:
The market remained stable to weak. While maintenance at several plants kept supply and demand in balance, the successful startup of new capacity could disrupt this balance. Price volatility is expected in the short term, depending on the output of new plants.
• Ammonium Sulfate:
The market weakened due to poor sales at high prices. Caution increased after news of urea exports. Although caprolactam-related operations were weak, leading to tight supply, the market is expected to remain in a stalemate with slight price drops. Focus on international demand dynamics.
⸻
Melamine:
• Prices remained generally stable with slight fluctuations. Despite high costs, weak supply-demand fundamentals resulted in poor sales performance. The market is unlikely to improve significantly this week.
⸻
Potash Fertilizer:
• The overall market remained strong. Potassium chloride supply was tight, prompting traders to hold back on selling and raise prices slightly in some areas. Deals were made on a case-by-case basis. Potassium sulfate remained flat with slow sales and prices still inverted (below cost).
⸻
Phosphate Fertilizer:
• Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP):
Prices rose by around ¥50/ton. In Central China, mainstream ex-factory price for 55% powder MAP was ¥3,400/ton. Some producers suspended quotes and orders. With export orders confirmed and limited supply, downstream buyers purchased only as needed and remained cautious. Prices are expected to stay firm short-term.
• Diammonium Phosphate (DAP):
The market was stable. While raw material prices dropped slightly, cost pressures remained. Some producers suspended pricing and signing new orders. In Hubei, 64% DAP ex-factory prices were ¥3,800–¥3,850/ton. Demand was weak, and with export policies announced, cautious sentiment prevailed. Short-term stability is expected.
⸻
Compound Fertilizer:
• The market continued narrow-range consolidation. Some prices were quietly lowered. Reference price for 45%S (15-15-15) compound fertilizer was ¥2,880–¥3,050/ton. Upstream raw materials were stable due to policy support, benefiting compound fertilizer costs. As the fertilization season nears, sentiment improved locally and deliveries increased. Short-term stability is expected.
⸻
Pesticides:
• Positive developments emerged from the Geneva agreement involving China, the US, and Japan, boosting market confidence and export demand. Domestic crop growth is entering a critical phase, providing rigid demand support. Formulation factories are ramping up. India imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese glufosinate and its salts, but the impact is expected to be limited. Domestic competition remains intense, but export orders are increasing, leading to ongoing supply-demand balancing.
⸻
Industrial Grade MAP:
• The industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate market remained stable. The mainstream price for 73% grade was around ¥6,450/ton, with transactions negotiated individually. Some companies stopped quoting and focused on fulfilling orders. Low-priced goods were tightening, and market sentiment remained cautious. The short-term outlook is for stable to slightly adjusted prices, depending on demand and export dynamics.
⸻
Let me know if you’d like a summarized outlook or investment implications from this report.
China urea : Today's market analysis
The export temporarily came to an end, after all, there was already a reasonable amount of procurement in the early stage, and the current market situation temporarily returns to the fundamentals, industrial demand is maintained for a short time, and at this stage, we are waiting for an increase in agricultural market procurement. As time passes, the harvest of wheat gradually starts from the south, there is a possibility that the price will loosen up by the end of the month accompanied by an increase in agricultural demand, we can only wait for a short time.
Jerry at zonchem : access to Russian map 11-52 via USA, The price we sold to Brazil was US$ 430 CIF Paranagua Port.