Today's market analysis
Today's domestic urea market continues to be weak, sentiment is weak, the agricultural market in the main region is progressing slowly, and the daily production continues at a high level. Without effective support in the short term, the market is likely to loosen again to a certain extent.
Starting on May 24, China's customs began to accept legal and inspection declarations, but at present, only factory inspections are accepted, with a time limit of 10 working days.
The first shipment of Chinese exports is expected to leave around mid-June at the earliest. Currently, the lowest FOB price is set at $360 for small particles and $370 for large particles.
The guidance price is currently tentatively updated once every two weeks.
3 sources have told me via different channels that a G2G contract between indai and china is under discussion
Weekly FOB prices
Prilled Urea(Bulk): FOB $360-370
Granular Urea(Bulk):FOB $370-380
Automotive Urea(Big Bag): FOB $375-385
Ammonium Sulfate (Capro grade):165(Bulk)-Tianjin Port or FOB $155(Bulk)River Port
Ammonium Sulfate (Mixed grade Granular):FOB $165(Bulk)-Tianjin Port
Ammonium Sulfate (Capro grade Granular):FOB $172(Bulk)-Tianjin Port
NP 8-40: FOB $480 (Bulk)-Fangcheng Port
NP 20-20 : FOB $375 (Bulk)-Tianjin Port or Nanjing Port
NPK14-14-14: FOB $380 (Bulk)-Qindao Port
Calcium Nitrate Granular: FOB $180(Container/Break Bulk)-Tianjin Port
Financial Options: we can offer credit terms of 30-120 days for long-term stable clients. The interest rate will around 6% (annualized)
Market Analysis and Summary
UREA
As of May 21, 2025, according to Longzhong data, urea producers' total inventory reached 917,400 tons, an increase of 100,200 tons from the previous week, up 12.26% week-on-week and 185.62% year-on-year. Daily production remains around 200,000 tons. Following the confirmation of export news, market sentiment has cooled, producers are facing average sales performance and have started to accumulate inventory. Due to price controls, spot prices in key delivery regions remain stable in the range of RMB 1,800–1,840/ton.
Export situation: Enterprises and plants have now received their urea export quotas for May to September 2025, totaling approximately 2 million tons. However, according to the latest updates, the previously anticipated Factory CIQ + Port CIQ inspection model has temporarily only opened for Factory CIQ. Moreover, based on information from most producers, local customs authorities have not yet received official orders to begin Factory CIQ inspections.
The start of mandatory inspections (CIQ) is currently expected by the May 24th, with an estimated 10 working days needed to complete the process. Therefore, the earliest possible urea export shipments are expected around mid-June.
According to the NDRC, the guiding FOB prices for exports are as follows:
Granular and automotive-grade urea: $370 FOB min
Prilled (small granular) urea: $360 FOB min
Ammonium Sulfate
This week, the price of ammonium sulfate (AMSUL) has seen a stable. The mainstream delivery price for mixed compacted ammonium sulfate from factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Inner Mongolia to Tianjin Port now ranges from 165–170USD FOB. Offers for standard AMSUL have increased around 160-165FOB Tianjin Port; 153-158FOB River Port. As of May 16th, port inventories have reached 1,070,000 metric tons.
Best Regards,
Kun Yang
China Morning Brief:
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❤ Sulfur:
Yesterday, the domestic port spot market saw slight price corrections, with prices ranging between 2,490–2,500 yuan/ton, and the mainstream reference price up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. From a market supply-demand perspective, buyers are increasingly inclined to purchase at low prices, but sellers remain firm, mostly maintaining offers around 2,500 yuan/ton. As a result, some buyers followed through with purchases, pushing the price center slightly higher. Domestically produced sulfur remained stable, but in Northeast China, prices for solid and liquid sulfur dropped sharply—by about 100 yuan/ton—due to weakened external demand. Watch for the results of today’s sales tenders from major domestic refineries.
❤ Urea:
Yesterday, the domestic urea market was mostly stable with slight fluctuations, and some enterprises slightly lowered their quotations. Demand from both agriculture and industry is progressing slower than expected, and fertilizer stockpiling is delayed. However, due to export demand and anticipated shortages during the summer season, the market maintains a cautious wait-and-see attitude, with short-term prices likely to fluctuate within a narrow range.
❤ Synthetic Ammonia:
Yesterday, the synthetic ammonia market saw slight upward adjustments. Some supply reductions due to equipment malfunctions and maintenance helped ease the supply-demand imbalance. Ammonia plants moderately raised prices based on shipment conditions, and trading sentiment improved slightly. The market is expected to see modest price increases in the short term.
❤ Melamine:
Yesterday, the domestic melamine market remained mostly stable, with slight price drops in some areas. In the short term, fundamentals are average, and enterprises are adjusting shipments based on their own situations. Unless driven by other factors, the market is expected to remain steady with minor fluctuations.
❤ Ammonium Sulfate:
Yesterday, the domestic ammonium sulfate market experienced slight fluctuations. There has been no notable improvement in international demand, and high-price inquiries remain limited. Domestic compound fertilizer producers are purchasing as needed, and in the absence of new positive drivers, domestic buyers remain unenthusiastic. With supply assurance taking priority and no improvement in demand, the market is expected to stay weak and volatile in the short term.
❤ Ammonium Chloride:
Recently, major ammonium chloride producers have maintained strong pricing intentions. However, downstream production is slow, leading to a stalemated and consolidating market. Overall, the ammonium chloride market continues to run weak but stable. Currently, mainstream dry ammonium delivery prices are around 520–560 yuan/ton, while wet ammonium in Jiangsu is delivered at around 390–440 yuan/ton.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate (MAP) market remained stable. In Central China, 55% powder MAP ex-factory price was around 3,400 yuan/ton, with prices subject to negotiation. As the summer fertilizer season winds down, production loads remain low, and raw materials are purchased as needed. Although it’s the off-season for MAP sales, high costs and factory backlogs provide some support, keeping prices steady in the short term.
The diammonium phosphate (DAP) market also remained stable yesterday. Under cost pressure, manufacturers have not changed ex-factory prices; in Hubei, 64% DAP ex-factory prices remain at 3,800–3,850 yuan/ton, with actual prices negotiated. Demand continues to be weak, and actual transactions are limited. The market is expected to remain in a weak and consolidating state in the short term.
❤ Potash Fertilizer:
Overall, the domestic potash fertilizer market saw little price change and remained relatively stable. Shipments from domestic potassium chloride producers were average, and trader quotations varied by region, with most deals negotiated case-by-case. Domestic potassium sulfate producers are also holding prices steady, although new order transactions are somewhat slow.
❤ Compound Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the domestic compound fertilizer market continued to consolidate. As the summer fertilizer season nears its end, demand is gradually weakening, and companies are mainly fulfilling previous orders with few new ones. With upstream raw material costs stable, compound fertilizer prices remain supported. Short-term price movements are expected to be limited, with attention focused on upstream raw materials and grassroots fertilizer demand.
Pardis sold a 30 Kt and a 60 Kt at $338/mt cargos for June shipment from ASA port.
LONDON (ICIS)—In Saudi Arabia, SABIC AN sold a spot cargo of 50,000 tonnes of granular urea at $380/tonne FOB for June loading, destination is likely Ethiopia. Don’t know more details.
Today's domestic urea market continues to be weak and stagnant. Enterprise prices can be negotiated. Downstream purchases are made on demand, and the transaction activity is still significantly lacking. There is expected to be a favorable trend, but there is still time to wait, and the favorable trend also has certain restrictions. Therefore, it still needs the multiple effects of time, price, and sentiment. It will be stagnant for a short time and wait.
Here’s the English translation of the chemical fertilizer industry report dated May 21, 2025:
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Longzhong Chemical Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Brief (2025-05-21)
Phosphorus Chemicals:
• Yellow Phosphorus:
Prices continued to decline yesterday. Mainstream ex-factory acceptance prices in Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan were around ¥22,200–22,400/ton. Production remained stable and supply was abundant. However, market confidence among producers is weak, leading to willingness to lower prices to stimulate sales. The low prices are being passed down the supply chain, and due to insufficient end-user demand, downstream buyers are increasingly pushing prices lower, further driving yellow phosphorus prices down. Overall, the market is in a deadlock due to the combination of oversupply and weak demand, making it difficult for prices to stabilize.
• Thermal Process Phosphoric Acid:
Prices continued to weaken in some regions. While there has been a slight increase in downstream inquiries, their target prices remain low, putting pressure on sellers and prompting some to lower prices. In contrast, wet-process acid producers are mostly focused on fulfilling previous orders. Phosphate rock prices remain firm due to support from phosphate fertilizer export policies, and sulfuric acid prices have risen in certain regions, which boosts the cost side of wet-process purified acid. However, falling prices of thermal process acid negatively impact negotiations for new wet-process acid orders. The phosphoric acid market is expected to remain weak in the short term.
• Phosphate Rock:
The market remains stable with prices holding steady. Downstream operations continue at high levels, and imports are limited, keeping supply relatively tight. Prices are expected to stay high and firm in the short term.
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Sulfur:
• Sulfur Market:
Domestic port spot prices continued to decline yesterday, with price references around ¥2,480–2,500/ton, down ¥45/ton from the previous day. Domestic refinery tender prices dropped by ¥71/ton compared to previous bids, signaling a weakening trend. Some traders are aggressively pressing for lower prices, further pressuring spot prices. In general, domestic sulfur prices are steady, but in the northwest, prices are declining due to weakened demand. The sulfur market is expected to remain weak in the short term.
• Sulfuric Acid:
Market sentiment improved yesterday. In Hunan, price increases in neighboring provinces led to faster sales by major producers and an improved trading atmosphere. Prices rose by ¥20–30/ton. In Henan, driven by rising prices in Hubei and supported by phosphate fertilizer export policies, compound fertilizer demand surged, boosting orders at major acid plants. Spot supply was tight in Sanmenxia, pushing prices up. In Yunnan, downstream demand supported price increases, with key producers continuing price hikes. For example, Yunnan’s Honghe plant raised prices by another ¥30/ton. Current prices for 98% smelting acid:
• Hubei: ¥590–660/ton
• Guangxi: ¥630–720/ton
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Urea:
Domestic urea transactions were weak yesterday. Market momentum did not meet expectations, and prices fell in most regions. In the short term, supply and demand are relatively loose with no clear bullish factors, so prices may remain weak and fluctuate slightly.
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Synthetic Ammonia:
The market showed mixed trends yesterday. In northern regions, some supply adjustments due to equipment issues reduced availability and eased supply-demand tension, pushing low-end prices up. However, in the Hubei and Hunan areas, prices had previously been high, and weak demand in the southwest kept trading sluggish. The outlook remains cautious. In the short term, the market may favor mild price increases from lower levels.
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Ammonium Chloride:
The market is sluggish and shows signs of fragmentation. While large producers have relatively stable orders, some small and mid-sized enterprises face order shortages. Overall, the market is expected to remain in a weak and fluctuating state. Current mainstream prices:
• Dry ammonium: ¥530–560/ton delivered
• Wet ammonium (Jiangsu region): ¥410–440/ton delivered
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Ammonium Sulfate:
The market remained at a stalemate at high price levels. International inquiries are limited, and granular ammonium sulfate producers are mostly replenishing inventory as needed, with limited willingness to buy at high prices. However, rising urea prices in Egypt and Brazil have somewhat boosted sentiment and increased market watchfulness. Short-term expectations point to minor downward adjustments at high levels, with limited price volatility.
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Melamine:
The domestic melamine market trended slightly downward, with widespread bearish sentiment. However, following recent price adjustments, the market is expected to stabilize, pending sales performance from individual producers.
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Potash Fertilizer:
The potassium chloride market remained relatively stable. Due to limited supply of certain product types, traders remain reluctant to sell. Imported 62% white potash is mostly quoted at ¥3,200–3,250/ton, with actual transactions negotiated individually. Sulfate of potash sales are slow, and supply is ample.
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Phosphate Fertilizer:
• Monoammonium Phosphate:
Prices were stable. Central China 55% powder was offered around ¥3,400/ton ex-factory, with actual prices negotiable. Falling sulfur prices have slightly reduced costs, but input prices remain relatively high. Downstream buyers are purchasing as needed. Market expected to remain stable and under observation in the short term.
• Diammonium Phosphate:
Prices also held steady. Although raw material prices have softened, cost support remains strong. Producers are cautious, and factory prices show little fluctuation. Downstream buyers are maintaining just-in-time procurement. Market sentiment remains quiet, with a stable short-term outlook.
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Compound Fertilizer:
Prices remained mostly stable. With upstream raw material prices holding steady, compound fertilizer costs have not changed significantly. Producers are mainly focused on promoting summer fertilizer sales. Some are offering policy-based discounts or negotiating prices individually. Overall, logistics have yet to reach peak-season levels, and producers are under sales pressure. The market is expected to continue consolidating in the short term.
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Let me know if you’d like a summarized version or key points for decision-making.
As of May 21, 2025, China's total urea inventory was 917.4 thousand tons, an increase of 100.2 thousand tons from last week, an increase of 12.26% month on month. The urea stockpiles of enterprises increased in the current cycle. Recently, urea prices have been mostly subject to policy regulation, market trading sentiment has cooled, downstream procurement initiative is not high, and local factories have reduced shipments. Among the provinces with increased enterprise inventory: Hainan, Hebei, Henan, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Yunnan; Provinces with reduced inventory: Anhui, Jiangxi.
Morning. Int'l paper focused on Brazil Q3 months w/ values found in $389-$400cfr range, Q3 AG bids came up into mid-$370s, while offers on Egypt were shy. In Nola, urea mkts quiet, but May DAP phys traded up +$10 to $685.
AG
May $375//$385
Jun $367//$380
Jul $375//$380
Q3 $375//$380
cfr Brazil
May $377//$386
Jun $377//$388
Jul $385//$390 – traded 395s, $391, $389
Aug $390//$398 – traded $390, $395, $400, $395
Sep $390//$400 – traded $395.50
Egypt
May $385//$397
Jun $387//$405
Jul $380//$395
Nola
Paper:
May $435//$445
Jun $365//$375
Jul $340//$355
Aug $340//$345
Sep $340//$350
Q4 $335//$360
UAN Nola
May $350//$360
Jun $340//$350
Aug $225//$275
Sep $225//$275
DAP Nola
Phys May traded $675, $678, $682, $685
May $650//$675
Jun $655//$670
Q3 $685//$695
Q4 $650//$675
MAP Brazil
May $700//$710
Jun $705//$720
Jul $710//$725
Aug $705//$725
Ethiopia is buying five ships of large particles, of which three ships are Chinese goods, and the rest are Middle Eastern goods. The price of the Chinese goods is trending towards 374-378 on board, but due to the high agency fees in Ethiopia and the trader's profit, the Chinese on-board price is estimated to be between 360-363, which is also lower than the current price floor. However, it is estimated that it belongs to companies with a large export quota in China, so there is space and flexibility in implementation. It is expected to be loaded in the first half of July. Ethiopia will then continue to make counteroffers, and some Middle Eastern goods may follow, because the price is good after all.
Nominations now total 17 vessels out of 20. Of the 759,700t nominated, 320,150t have been sourced ex-Middle East, 261,500t ex-Russia, 132,000t ex-Algeria and 46,000t ex-Nigeria.
Virtual copy of the fertilizer map is now available for download on the ICIS website incase you need it: https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/global-fertilizer-trade-map-2025/?cmpid=SOC%7cFERT%7cCHGPC-2025-0512-EMEA-IFA_Map_Linkdedin&sfid=701dP00000HYdRpQAL
LONDON (ICIS)—In Egypt, MOPCO sold another 5,000 tonnes at $402/tonne FOB for June loading. Don’t know more details.