PS thoughts:
quick analysis on India Urea tender
1. USA demand still keeping market up
2. Last done in AG was 380 FOB (Ethiopia)
3. Paper FOB AG mid point is 385
4. Overall market is balanced
5. Ag has good June book, so not desperate to offload Mts
Other exotic origins like Nigeria, Algeria and Indo -> presently priced out fo the market
Iran market is falling -> last tender was 335 FOB, no buyers
As china can take out any markets that Russia nd AG supply, means market wont be aggressively shorted.
India has come back to market to early for them to achieve best price, and I think they will even push the market up
So right now prediction is L1 395-405 CFR range
Uralchem sold out of urea June and 90pct July – may put 1 cargo in to India depending on shipping window <This message was edited>
I met up with their team years ago, I think the boss is Tsukahara san.
My namecard is in office, I’ll go tomorrow and see if I can find their namecard.
Information briefings
Friends of Weifang Gaomi City Chemical Co., Ltd. After the explosion, all levels of organized forces to rescue. As of 19: 25, five people were killed, six were missing and 19 were slightly injured as a result of the accident.
After the accident, the Shandong Party Committee and the provincial government attached great importance to it. Immediate arrangements were made, emergency response mechanisms were initiated at the provincial, municipal and county levels, a joint rescue command was established, and all efforts were made to organize and conduct rescues, and all tasks were comprehensively done to search for and rescue missing persons, treat the injured, reassure families, deal with the aftermath, and monitor the environment. Search and rescue work on the site is still ongoing.
Gaomi City Emergency Management Bureau 27 May 2025
Yeah that's true – the outlook for sulphur still looks stable/firm globally, and I think the explosion in Iran did make domestic Chinese sulphur prices firm up again, so production costs for Chinese feed should still be firm
Tuesday, 27 May 2025 (Acerto)
Urea
Indonesia: Results of Pupuk's 27 May sales tender for 12,000t of prilled urea ex-Gresik, June shipment:
OE to be advised
Known bids:
Samsung $350 but for 6kt
Aditya Birla (ABGT) high $340s
Liven regret
Ameropa regret
Heartychem regret
Camelot regret
Koch regret
Golden Barley regret
Hexagon regret
SOP China prices are weak
Here’s the English translation of the fertilizer industry early briefing from Longzhong Information dated May 27, 2025:
⸻
Longzhong Fertilizer Industry Chain Early Briefing (2025-05-27)
⸻
Phosphorus Chemical Products:
Yellow Phosphorus:
Yesterday, the domestic yellow phosphorus market continued a tug-of-war between supply and demand. Prices saw a slight upward test, but transactions remained limited. On the supply side, major production regions such as Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan saw enterprises tentatively raise their offer prices to 22,700–22,800 yuan/ton (tax included, factory-delivered). One plant in Sichuan raised its tender price by 55 yuan to 22,510 yuan/ton. Coupled with producers holding back sales, this supported bullish sentiment. However, demand remained cautious. End users purchased based on need, and while some traders replenished slightly (e.g., Yunnan: 22,500 yuan/ton, Guizhou: 22,600 yuan/ton, both tax-included), overall acceptance of high prices was low. Market is expected to remain weakly stable today.
Phosphoric Acid:
Phosphoric acid prices held steady yesterday. Yellow phosphorus producers maintained firm pricing and were reluctant to sell, leading to slight price increases. The cost support for thermal-process acid is improving. However, downstream buying sentiment remains cautious with a wait-and-see attitude. Wet-process acid producers showed slightly low inventory levels, and maintenance at some plants reduced regional supply. Major factories focused on stable pricing and flexible sales strategies. Market participants are watching closely for changes in electricity pricing during the flood season and the commissioning of new wet-process acid capacities.
Phosphate Rock:
The phosphate rock market remained stable with no recent price changes. Recently, diammonium phosphate exports were restricted, reducing phosphate element exports. However, since the duration of these restrictions is unclear, the impact on phosphate rock prices is limited. The market remains in a wait-and-see mode, with attention focused on future downstream policy changes.
⸻
Sulfur:
Yesterday, domestic sulfur spot prices at ports saw a narrow increase, with a reference range of 2,510–2,520 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day. Demand from traders and some terminal factories increased rapidly, driving the price up. Domestically produced sulfur remained mostly stable. In Shandong, liquid sulfur prices slightly declined by about 20 yuan/ton due to weakening downstream demand. The market is watching closely for today’s regular price adjustments and tender results from large refineries.
⸻
Sulfuric Acid:
The sulfuric acid market showed localized increases. In Yunnan, supported by downstream demand, prices rose 30 yuan/ton last week. Qujing area is planning maintenance at the end of the month, tightening supply expectations. Red River acid plants raised prices again by 40 yuan/ton today. In Hubei, major plants had full order books and low inventories. Tight supply from other areas like Henan strengthened the supply-side support. Early low-priced orders are gradually being digested, and new orders are slightly higher. Current delivered prices for 98% smelting acid are:
• Hubei: 620–670 yuan/ton
• Yunnan: 570–600 yuan/ton
⸻
Urea:
Urea prices in key regions have been gradually softening. As of yesterday, low-end transaction volumes haven’t improved significantly. Prices may continue to dip in the short term before rebounding, waiting for increased summer demand at lower price levels.
⸻
Synthetic Ammonia:
The synthetic ammonia market saw mixed adjustments yesterday. Due to fluctuations in production, supply capacity varied by region. In northern regions, mainstream prices were lower. Poor sales and high inventory levels, along with expected transportation disruptions during the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival, led to more aggressive sales. Regional adjustments are expected to continue in the short term.
⸻
Ammonium Chloride:
The ammonium chloride market was quiet yesterday. Producers had difficulty shipping products, and inventories are rising. Downstream compound fertilizer manufacturers and traders showed low purchasing interest, leading to a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Prices may trend downward in the short term.
⸻
Ammonium Sulfate:
The ammonium sulfate market remained stagnant yesterday. Domestic and international demand showed no significant improvement. Downstream buyers were not actively inquiring and continued to purchase only as needed. Despite price corrections last week, some producers are less pessimistic about the outlook. With relatively stable supply and demand, small price adjustments are expected in the near term.
⸻
Melamine:
The melamine market saw steady-to-weak performance. Although operating rates in the industry declined, weak demand led high-end prices to drop closer to low-end levels. Market participants are watching how producers handle shipments.
⸻
Potash Fertilizer:
Domestic potassium chloride producers maintained stable pricing policies, with the benchmark price for 60% KCl remaining at 2,600 yuan/ton (ex-factory, freight excluded). Market sentiment was lukewarm, and supply volumes in circulation remained limited. The potassium sulfate market was weak, with producers keeping previous price levels, but shipments were slow.
⸻
Phosphate Fertilizer:
Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP):
Market activity remained weak yesterday, with limited inquiries. Central China 55% MAP ex-factory prices held at 3,400 yuan/ton, but negotiations existed, and sporadic low prices reappeared. Most factories either paused quoting or held prices firm. With downstream demand soft, expect stable to slightly weaker prices in the short term.
Diammonium Phosphate (DAP):
Prices continued to be weak. Producers mostly held prices steady. In Hubei, 64% DAP ex-factory prices remained at 3,800–3,850 yuan/ton, with actual deals negotiated. Demand remained poor, supported only by minimal essential purchasing. Short-term outlook is stable with slight adjustments.
⸻
Compound Fertilizer:
The compound fertilizer market showed localized stabilization but hidden discounts. Continued urea price weakness and limited new orders in some southern regions created ongoing market pressure. However, raw material costs still provided support, limiting the scope of discounts. Expect the compound fertilizer market to remain generally stable, with minor regional fluctuations in the short term.
Please price 1000mts Karachi dap – same terms as last time (it’s going in airtable!)
Around 2 PM on May 24, Russian media published a series of videos, apparently filmed near the city of Novomoskovsk, where the “Novomoskovsk Joint Stock Company ‘Azot’” (NAK AZOT) plant operates. The Russians showed the plant area covered in a grey-yellow smoke and claimed that the chemical plant had been hit. One witness stated that the smoke cloud was moving toward Moscow. Astra analysed the footage and concluded that three facilities sustained damage — the “Ammonia-2”, “Urea-2”, and “Workshop-5A” units.
Latest update on China's CIQ policy and export quota:
Starting from 23rd May, new export policy will immediately come into force:
1) CIQ for GSSP and TSP will again requires 60 days (which will automatically invalidate the 10 working days policy which was announced on 15th May)
2) CIQ for NP, NK, NPK will be NOT accepted, meaning export from China is still under restriction.
3) Export quota of MAP, DAP and Urea are to be allocated to some enterprises only, particularly those who are strictly complying with export policy.
Nevertheless, for those CIQ application that submitted before 23rd May, the release time of export approval will NOT be affected.
𝗦𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗽 𝗜𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗣𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗽𝗵𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀
Phosphate rock prices in India have surged significantly, driven by the upward trend in phosphoric acid and downstream phosphate products. The pricing chart reflects CFR levels in India as of May 21, 2025.
Key Factors Behind the Price Surge:
𝘊𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘢’𝘴 𝘌𝘹𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵 𝘙𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴:
From January to April 2025, China’s exports of DAP and MAP dropped sharply by 85% and 77% year-on-year, respectively. Only 80,000 tons of DAP and 75,000 tons of MAP were shipped during this period.
𝘌𝘜 𝘛𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘧𝘧𝘴 𝘰𝘯 𝘙𝘶𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘍𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘻𝘦𝘳𝘴:
The European Union is expected to implement new tariffs on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers starting next week, leading to global price escalation.
𝘙𝘪𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘋𝘦𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘪𝘯 𝘐𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘢:
India’s DAP stock levels remain low, prompting increased domestic production efforts. As a result, phosphate rock prices for 66–72 BPL grades have jumped significantly to meet fertilizer production needs.
𝘏𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘍𝘳𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘊𝘰𝘴𝘵𝘴:
Increasing transportation costs have pushed CFR prices even higher.
Meanwhile, China's domestic reliance continues to stabilize phosphate rock prices in its local market.
Henan Zhongyuan Dahua urea price, ordinary urea industrial report 1830 yuan / ton, agricultural report 1850 yuan / ton, automotive urea report 1880 yuan / ton, 520,000 tons of equipment operation stable.
Here’s the English translation of the report titled “Longzhong Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Brief: (2025-05-26)”:
⸻
Phosphorus Chemical Industry:
Yellow Phosphorus:
Last week, the domestic yellow phosphorus market was in a weak balance characterized by “firm supply prices vs. suppressed demand.” In the Yunnan-Guizhou-Sichuan region, ex-factory transaction prices based on acceptance ranged from 22,400 to 22,600 yuan/ton. Suppliers were increasingly determined to hold prices, yet actual transaction volumes declined notably. Downstream buyers were cautious in replenishment and increasingly resistant to high prices. In the short term, the market is expected to remain weak and stable. If bidding price gaps narrow this week, the current deadlock may be broken; otherwise, the yellow phosphorus market may continue a stalemate through the end of the month.
Phosphoric Acid:
Prices continued a downward trend last week. A decline in new energy production weakened demand. Alongside falling prices for thermal-process phosphoric acid, this negatively impacted negotiations for wet-process acid, whose prices fell and were mostly discussed on a per-order basis. For thermal-process phosphoric acid, new orders were scarce, causing production and sales pressure. Combined with a sharp drop in yellow phosphorus, cost-side pressure was evident, and enterprises lowered their quotes. In Sichuan, net water-grade thermal-process phosphoric acid was quoted around 6,400 yuan/ton ex-factory.
Phosphate Rock:
Prices remained firm last week, supported by high operating rates in downstream industries. Mines maintained stable pricing and were actively fulfilling orders. In Guizhou Weng’an, 28% grade phosphate rock was priced at ~900 yuan/ton (tax-included, delivered on truck). In Kaiyang, 30% grade was priced between 950–980 yuan/ton, with high-end quotes exceeding 1,020 yuan/ton, though actual transactions were negotiated per order.
⸻
Sulfur:
Last week, the domestic port spot market for sulfur experienced fluctuating declines, with prices in the range of 2,480–2,490 yuan/ton. Mainstream reference prices were up 10 yuan/ton from the prior business day. Domestically sourced sulfur prices remained stable week-on-week. However, some refineries saw continuous price drops in their tender results, intensifying downward pressure. With no fresh positive news and persistent price-squeezing from the demand side, market activity stalled. In the Northwest and Northeast, weakening external demand led to price declines of 100–130 yuan/ton. In the short term, sulfur prices are expected to remain in a fluctuating consolidation phase.
⸻
Sulfuric Acid:
Last week saw localized price increases in the domestic sulfuric acid market. With confirmed export orders for downstream fertilizers, trading activity picked up. Previous upward momentum in regions like Hubei also spread to Hunan, Jiangxi, and Henan, driving up prices. In Yunnan, stable downstream demand supported smooth sales, prompting a 30 yuan/ton increase by Honghe acid plants, with major producers following suit over the weekend. Shandong’s inventory levels remained low. Prices were led upward by ore acid producers in Laiwu, influencing other key producers in the West and Jiaodong.
• In Hubei, 98% smelting acid was delivered at 590–660 yuan/ton.
• In Yunnan, the range was 550–600 yuan/ton.
⸻
Urea:
The domestic urea market weakened last week. The supply-demand fundamentals are in a state of standoff, with no new positive developments. Buyer interest is low and transactions are lackluster. In the short term, the market is expected to continue a weak-to-stable trend, with prices likely to soften further.
⸻
Synthetic Ammonia:
Last week, synthetic ammonia prices saw slight increases due to reduced supply caused by temporary equipment malfunctions. This eased sales and inventory pressures at ammonia plants. However, with maintenance units resuming and no notable improvement in downstream demand, pricing sentiment has turned cautious. The market is expected to move in a narrow range in the short term. Attention should be paid to plant operation status.
⸻
Ammonium Chloride:
The ammonium chloride market remained weakly balanced last week amid both weak supply and demand. Some plants finished maintenance, and new units began producing qualified product, increasing supply. However, downstream compound fertilizer production dropped, and summer fertilizer demand fell short of expectations. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with prices likely to decline further.
⸻
Ammonium Sulfate:
The domestic ammonium sulfate market was mostly weak last week, especially in Shandong where the caprolactam-grade product saw significant price declines. International demand remained tepid, and high pricing sentiment persisted. Meanwhile, slight increases in domestic caprolactam production added pressure. The ammonium sulfate market is expected to continue a volatile pattern in the short term.
⸻
Melamine:
Melamine prices continued to decline last week. Despite some maintenance shutdowns, supply-demand dynamics showed little improvement. Faced with sales pressure, producers are expected to keep lowering prices.
⸻
Potash Fertilizer:
The domestic potash market remained relatively stable last week. Supply of potassium chloride was somewhat tight, but limited downstream demand support led to subdued trading activity, with mainly small-volume restocking. Sulfate of potash producers operated at low rates and mostly maintained previous quotes, though they continued to face sales pressure.
⸻
Phosphate Fertilizers:
Mono-Ammonium Phosphate (MAP):
The market remained in consolidation last week. In Central China, 55% powder MAP ex-factory prices were around 3,400 yuan/ton, with actual prices negotiated. With summer fertilizer season winding down, downstream demand was moderate. Cost and pending shipments still provided support, and the market is expected to remain in a wait-and-see mode in the short term.
Di-Ammonium Phosphate (DAP):
The DAP market remained stable with no significant changes in factory quotes. In Hubei, 64% DAP was quoted at 3,800–3,850 yuan/ton ex-factory, with actual transactions based on negotiation. With limited summer demand, purchasing is mostly for immediate needs, and the market is expected to remain steady.
⸻
Compound Fertilizers:
The compound fertilizer market continued its weak consolidation last week. As the summer fertilizer season ends, restocking demand fell short of expectations. Trading activity remained lukewarm, and producers faced sales pressure. Corn fertilizer prices loosened slightly, but strong upstream raw material prices provided indirect support. The market is expected to continue a stable-to-adjusting trend in the short term.
⸻
Let me know if you need this in a table format or summarized further.
Today's market analysis
A few days ago, the low-end of the mainstream area fell to around 1810, but the transaction did not show a clear improvement. Today's market is operating in this weak state. Based on the current situation, the price is likely to fall for a few more days. According to the possible time of agricultural start-up, the end of the month or the beginning of June, there is a possibility of overlapping with export shipments, which may lead to a wave of market trends.