*Demand surges*
Importers are seeking 39+ tons.
*Prices up*
Spot market sees a $6/mt increase.
<img src='https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1465101178521-c1a9136a3b41' alt='Demo image' style='max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:8px;margin-top:10px;'>
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
*Supply tight*
Limited spot availability reported.
*Demand surges*
Importers are seeking 12+ tons.
*Freight steady*
No major changes in rates.
Dangote urea export tender
2 cargoes loading:
7-9 June
13-15 June
Closing Monday COB
Episode3 want to do info swap / market info etc
Today, the factory quotations of the main production areas of urea in China continue the trend of "stable and slightly adjusted". Due to the market atmosphere, some factories have made small concessions in their quotations. Suppliers are increasingly concerned about the future market. The current contradiction between supply and demand is characterized by a phased strengthening. The market atmosphere is more obvious in the short term.
-INDIA HAS ANNOUNCED A UREA TENDER CLOSING JUNE 12TH FOR 1.5 MILLION MT TO BE DELIVERED TO THE INDIA WEST COAST ONLY. CHINESE PRODUCTS ARE MOST LIKELY NOT BEING PRESENT DUE TO CHINESE GOVERNMENT RESTRICTIONS ON SALES OF ALL AND ANY FERTILIZERS TO INDIA.
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES KEEP GOING MAINLY DUE TO LACK OF AVAILABILITY WITH CHINESE PRODUCTS STILL NOT REPRESENTED
-POTASH MARKETS ARE AWAITING TENDER RESULTS IN INDIA AND CHINA FOR PRICE GUIDANCE
-AMMONIA MARKETS ARE BEARISH WITH A SALE OF AMMONIA TO MOSAIC USD 45 PMT LESS THAN THE MAY CONTRACT PRICE CFR TAMPA.
The international urea market is fragmented and still trying to find its way forward due to the European Union rubber stamping anti-dumping measures against Russia and Belarus in addition to the introduction of urea exports from China.
Obviously, the Russian producers will have to look elsewhere to sell their products. This situation could open up avenues for other producers into the European markets, notably urea producers in Algeria and Nigeria whilst Russian producers most likely will focus on Brazil, Argentina and the US markets.
Finally, after months of speculations and deliberations on the part of the Chinese government, urea exports will now take place with the first products reaching markets some time in July due to the time consuming CIQ processes of up to 60 days. Another peculiar issue is that it appears that Chinese products will be prohibited from taking part in Indian urea tenders.
The first test of this measure will be during the NFL of India announcing a 1.5 million MT West Coast of India only import tender closing on the 12th of June with shipments on or before July 31st. The other caveat of the Chinese export program is that prilled urea cannot be exported below USD 360 PMT FOB and granular price floor is set at USD 370 PMT FOB. Time will tell if the above two measures will be adhered to or if changes will be announced in due course. On the trading side this week it was interesting to note that SABIC of Saudi Arabia in a classic pre-India tender move sold a granular urea cargo at USD 385 PMT FOB, USD 5 PMT higher than last sold this vs the market price was in the USD 370s PMT FOB.
Egyptian operating rates are getting back to normal after having been exposed to natural gas supply limitations. Producers are offering products at USD 405 PMT FOB with limited interest from buyers. Brazil has yet to enter the buying season in earnest with non-sanctioned urea offered at around the USD 395 PMT FOB mark. However, it is reported that lots of Iranian urea is being shipped to Brazil on the back of their successful sales tenders at USD 335-338 PMT FOB Iran which should give CFR prices well below the USD 395 PMT CFR levels offered.
US/NOLA prices are edging lower coming to the end of the major application season with prices around the USD 420 ST mark equal to USD 413 PMT CFR .
Indonesia's Gresik prilled urea tender was scrapped with the highest bid at USD 350 PMT FOB whilst the floor prices were just above USD 20 PMT higher. However, Pupuk Indonesia is reported to have sold a granular urea cargo for June shipment at USD 380 PMT FOB Bontang.
Thailand being one of the global import markets for granular urea saw the January-April imports at 827 KT vs 947 KT Y/Y vs 601 KT in the 2023 same period. Saudi Arabia was the major importer at 405 KT while Malaysia and Qatar each with 165 KT.
The outlook for the urea price will be heavily reliant on India and China's position on either taking part or adhering to the current government instructions. Question is where Chilna will export their allocated 2 million MT without India receiving a fair share.
The processed phosphate market is still tight with the absence of Chilna. Jordan DAP has reportedly been sold in the upper USD 730s CFR to India. The lack of China supply is the key driver of tight global availability, with the country's January-April DAP/MAP exports down to a 23-year low at 155,128 t, marking an 82% decrease from January-April 2024. The volume compares with 2.33 Mt as recently as 2021 and 1.64 Mt in 2023 January-April. China is rejoining the global market with an export quota allocation of around 3-3.5 Mt for DAP+MAP from May to September, which is around half of last year's export quota of 6.5 Mt. Still, local sources suggested that more quotas may be released after September if domestic supply is sufficient and domestic prices are kept acceptably low. The acceptance of export inspection certificates for DAP/MAP started 24 May and will run to 15 October. Current sales of DAP for export from China are priced around $700-720/t FOB, while producers are aiming to increase to $730-750/t FOB. China's export policy continued to keep market players on their toes, with news that export inspections were being hated for NP/NPKs, while the approval time for export inspections for TSP and SSP was reportedly being extended. China’s exports of SSP and NP have surged significantly since the start of 2024, as considered in recent analysis, with Brazil emerging as the primary destination. This trend has ramped up thus far this year, with unprecedented NP exports in Q1. Availability from China has also kept a lid on NPS prices in India on recent deals. No new DAP/MAP deals were reported in the key import markets of Brazil and India, though assessments there increased as previous low-end prices were long gone.
Prices are expected to increase further over the coming weeks, as demand picks up while supply remains exceptionally tight. Affordability concerns persist, but buyers have limited options. Any reversal in direction now seems unlikely until at least Q3, and that will depend on supply improving and buyers becoming more comfortable.
The potash market remains relatively quiet as attention shifts to the imminent contract settlements from India and China. All eyes were on India this week amid rumours of a contract settlement between IPL, BPC, and other overseas producers. The settlement has not been officially completed, but prices are widely expected to be around $349/t CFR, which producers have commented is a fair price. A $5–10/t price difference between suppliers still exists, potentially delaying progress. The timeline remains unclear, with some expecting a resolution over the weekend, while others expect it to happen within the next week. Although India initially waited for China to settle first, its port stocks have been steadily depleting and are now down to around 170,000 t. With the Kharif planting season approaching and the early arrival of the southeast monsoon prompting farmers to begin land preparation sooner, the urgency to finalise the settlement has increased. The China contract remains under negotiation, with no fresh updates this week. China is not in a hurry to settle now that the high-demand spring application season has ended. The next major season, corn application, does not require heavy potash use, and the autumn application is not expected to begin before July. In recent months, China faced pressure to settle contracts as domestic prices spiked amid tight supply and strong demand. The government responded by releasing 1.1 Mt of MOP via a tendering process, ending on 15 April. While inventories have declined since, this release helped stabilise prices. China will eventually need to replenish these stocks but has sufficient time and is under no immediate pressure. Meanwhile, the Southeast Asia MOP market remains quiet pending contract settlements. It is widely accepted that BPC was the only respondent to the Pupuk Indonesia tender but secured significantly less volume than initially requested. Although prices accepted were $360/t CFR, the lowest offer in the tender process, this has done little to stimulate demand or push prices higher. Standard MOP regional prices remain at an average of $345/t CFR. In Brazil, prices held steady at $360–365/t CFR, with July offers at $360–370/t CFR. However, no sales have occurred at $370/t CFR. Farmers remain resistant, with inland prices still $10–20/t lower than CFR equivalents. Purchasing activity has paused as both buyers and suppliers are in no rush to transact from July onwards. The Safra season is already well covered compared with last year.
Market participants await the India contract settlement, expected imminently, which should support sentiment amid recent slower momentum.
On the ammonia side, Tampa was the main talking point, although unusually, it was the headline news this week because of a spot purchase, rather than the contract settlement. If anything, the 25,000t purchase by Mosaic at $370pt cfr appears to have complicated negotiations over a figure for next month’s term cargoes. That sale by Trammo represented a $45pt discount to the May settlement and was also unusual in that it involved material sourced from the Middle East. The supposed netback from that cargo triggered talk of a sharp drop in spot ranges in the Arabian Gulf, but the trader is widely heard to have secured a favourable rate of freight for the lengthy voyage. That deal represented one of several cfr cargoes sold in the West, with spot shipments now on the water for buyers in Morocco, France and the Netherlands.
Ammonia prices are under pressure and a bearish tone continues.
Doha, May 29th 2025
QatarEnergy hereby announces the Qatar Sulphur Price (QSP) FOB for June 2025 as US $286 per metric tonne.
BREAKING NEWS: MSC Container Ship Sinks Off India, 640 Containers Lost at Sea
Yesterday (May 25), the MSC ELSA 3, a container vessel operated by Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), sank near Kochi, India, approximately 38 nautical miles southwest of the port. The ship, which departed from Vizhinjam Port on May 23 en route to Kochi, reported severe listing due to cargo hold flooding before sinking, according to World Cargo News.
The vessel was carrying 640 containers, including 13 containing hazardous materials and 12 with calcium carbide (a substance reactive with water, posing potential environmental and safety risks). Local authorities, including Kerala’s Port Minister VN Vasavan, confirm an ongoing investigation into the cause, citing contributing factors such as severe weather (strong winds, high waves) and possible cargo stability issues. Notably, the southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala on May 24—the earliest since 2009—amplifying sea conditions.
This incident highlights risks in global supply chains and maritime safety, particularly during extreme weather events. Stay tuned for updates on salvage efforts and environmental impact assessments.
• The basis is the difference between two prices, either a premium or a discount.
• Basis can be an indicator of drought. If there is a drought, our prices will generally increase to a substantial premium compared to overseas values.
• At present, Australian ASX wheat futures (East Coast) are not at a significant premium.
• Generally, the basis will rise strongly in the second half of the year when drought hits.
• When we examine physical prices in the South, a premium is evident, but it is not a significant drought premium.
• The drought is affecting a vast area of South Australia and Victoria, but it is not covering as big an area as in 2018/2019.
• The drought premiums in 2018/19 were primarily caused by the domestic market needing to access grain.
• Currently, the trade still expects an average to above-average crop.
• Rises in domestic premiums tend to arrive in the second half of the year.
• If the lack of rainfall continues, there may be increased local premiums in affected areas,
• The premium is unlikely to be as large as experienced during the 2018/19 drought.
Today's domestic urea market is running smoothly. Most urea factory quotations are stable. Due to appropriate downstream orders in the previous few days, urea factory orders are still satisfactory, but the demand continues to be tepid. The market is not strong enough to hold prices. At present, exports have not yet been collected, industrial demand has declined, and agricultural demand is expected to increase. The market situation is temporarily stable, waiting for further clarity of demand.
Registration for FLA now open. 26-28 Jan in Miami. Do you know the name of the hotel?