just spoke to Ditlevsen (access to Fudo) and messaged fudao direct:
2 x 2kt fudao sold to Japan bss USD 380 FOB
Ameropa, Nitron and SSOE all bought cargoes at USD 372 FOB north China
Fudao will not price a cargo for August shipment
one concern selling that forward which china suppliers will have is that the china gov can change their mind and halt CIQ at any moment.
all the big traders are bidding in
L1 india projection is 395 CFR
Chinese tonnes will appear in India using document swapping (internal swaps)
Sending over terms and he will see if he can get me a petronas cargo
Here’s the English translation of the June 10, 2025 Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Report from Longzhong:
⸻
Phosphorus Chemical Industry:
• Yellow Phosphorus:
The domestic yellow phosphorus market saw a shift in sentiment yesterday. In Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan, ex-factory settlement prices were around 22,000–22,300 RMB/ton, up 50–100 RMB/ton from the previous working day. There’s a significant divergence between upstream and downstream bidding prices. Yellow phosphorus producers are cautious but firm, quoting 22,200–22,300 RMB/ton, while downstream purchasers continue to bid around 22,900 RMB/ton delivered. Buyers are resistant to high prices, yet low-priced offers are hard to find, resulting in sluggish actual trading. In the short term, the market is expected to remain weak and stable.
• Thermal Phosphoric Acid:
Prices were weak and stable. Despite slight raw material cost increases, demand remains subdued, with limited large orders. Market activity is low. Supply has increased slightly due to some plants resuming operations. Downstream phosphate buyers are cautious, purchasing in small, on-demand batches. In Sichuan, thermal phosphoric acid (water treatment grade) was ex-factory at 6,300–6,350 RMB/ton.
• Phosphate Rock:
Northern China’s phosphate rock market remains firm. Some beneficiation plants may shut down for a month, reducing supply. However, with low downstream operating rates, supply and demand remain balanced.
• 32–33% grade: 890–930 RMB/ton
• 30% grade: 820–850 RMB/ton
Actual deals are negotiated case by case.
⸻
Sulfur:
• Domestic port spot market rose slightly, with prices around 2,290–2,300 RMB/ton, up 5 RMB/ton from the previous day. There’s wide divergence in bid/ask prices. Some small orders were reported around 2,290 RMB/ton.
• Domestic liquid sulfur:
Prices in Shandong independent refineries continued to drop by 20–30 RMB/ton as buyers pressured prices. Refineries adjusted to encourage sales. Watch for today’s domestic price updates and large refiner tenders for market guidance.
⸻
Sulfuric Acid:
• Regional price increases occurred yesterday.
• In Jiangsu, sulfur prices were firm; Zhangjiagang acid producers raised prices by 20 RMB/ton due to strong export demand.
• In Henan (Jiyuan), ongoing plant maintenance and just-in-time downstream needs led to a 20 RMB/ton rise.
• Hunan’s exports to Hubei were smooth with low inventories; prices rose by 10–20 RMB/ton.
• In parts of Guangxi, prices rose 30 RMB/ton.
• Current delivery prices for 98% smelter acid:
• Hubei: 650–700 RMB/ton
• Yunnan: 650–680 RMB/ton
⸻
Urea:
• After prices in key regions dropped to 1,700 RMB/ton, some low-end deals occurred, but overall trading remained weak. At this level, low-end prices may temporarily stabilize. Higher-priced producers are likely to lower offers. The market awaits further news in the coming days.
⸻
Synthetic Ammonia:
• Mixed price movements.
• With staggered plant restarts and tepid downstream demand, prices were adjusted based on individual plant inventory and sales.
• Market sentiment remains largely wait-and-see.
• A narrow fluctuation trend is expected in the short term.
⸻
Ammonium Chloride:
• Market trading was average.
• Factories lowered prices to stimulate demand.
• Short-term prices are expected to remain stable.
• Henan region dry ammonium delivery price: 480–540 RMB/ton
⸻
Ammonium Sulfate:
• The market was mostly stable.
• In Shandong, caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate prices rose.
• Downstream purchases remained on a just-in-time basis.
• International inquiries are stable but not breaking price ceilings.
• Strong market competition with limited positive catalysts.
• Expect slight fluctuations in the short term.
⸻
Melamine:
• Weak market performance.
• Domestic demand is low.
• Urea (raw material) prices softened.
• Buyers are cautious and observing the market.
• Prices may continue to decline.
⸻
Potash Fertilizer:
• Potassium chloride prices continued to fall, with significant volatility.
• Market sentiment remains bearish.
• Imported 62% white potash trades mostly at 3,100–3,200 RMB/ton, with actual transactions negotiated individually.
• Potassium sulfate market remains sluggish.
• Producers maintain previous offers, with deals negotiated per order.
⸻
Phosphate Fertilizers:
• Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP):
• The market remained steady but sluggish.
• Central China 55% powder MAP ex-factory prices at 3,330–3,350 RMB/ton.
• Downstream compound fertilizer plants are increasingly shutting down or adjusting formulas, purchasing MAP only for essential needs.
• Transaction volumes are low, with slight downward pressure on prices.
• Diammonium Phosphate (DAP):
• Continued sideways trend.
• Hubei 64% DAP ex-factory prices at 3,800–3,850 RMB/ton.
• Weak demand continues as summer fertilizer moves to the retail level.
• Purchases remain just-in-time, with limited transaction volumes.
⸻
Compound Fertilizer:
• Market mostly consolidated yesterday.
• As summer fertilizer season winds down, shipments slow.
• Falling prices for urea and MAP make new pricing more difficult.
• Expect a short-term wait-and-see approach.
• Small seasonal orders are negotiated case by case.
⸻
@everyone According to the level of low-end urea factory prices in the mainstream regions yesterday, today's market is weak and stable, with high-end prices declining. Although the market is currently in a relatively loose supply and demand situation, due to certain industrial needs and expected agricultural demand, as well as later export, after the price decline, it can still attract a reasonable amount of transactions. However, based on the reaction of yesterday and today, the market atmosphere has not seen a significant improvement, and the market is only in a state of stagnation and stalemate. According to today's export news, there is no short-term substantive benefit, so the mood affects the market mentality, and the market confidence is temporarily lacking. There is a possibility that the market will decline again after the current stagnation.
Don’t quite understand this:
The general content of the morning meeting:
① Urge export enterprises to make orderly exports.
2. The price cap will be adjusted after the printing standard is issued.
③ The Hong Kong inspection will be released after a period of time, and the earliest will be in the latter part of the month. The requirement is that the internal order should be good before confirming the Hong Kong inspection.
Indian subsidies: USD 325/Mt for DAP
Morning, With NFL tender close on the horizon, and further direction awaited, Int'l paper activity thin last week. In Nola, Urea Q3 saw support in/around $360, Jul/Q3 DAP traded upper-$690s. Mkts framed close of week:
AG
Jun $378//$390
Jul $378//$385
_[Jul traded $381 last week]_
Aug $380//$387 – traded $383
Cfr Brazil
Jun $394//$400
_[Jun traded $390 last week]_
Jul $385//$400
Aug $387//$400
Sep/Oct $405 Offer
Egypt
Jun $390//$405
Jul $380///$395
Aug $375//$390
Q4 $370//$390
Nola
Paper:
Jun $360//$370
Jul $355//$365
Aug $357//$365
Sep $362//$370
Q3 $358//$366
Q4 $360//$375
Option: Q3 $350P – traded$10
UAN Nola
Jun $320//$340
Aug $235//$270
Sep $235//$270
DAP Nola
Jun $690//$705
Jul $695//$705
Q3 $693//$705
Q4 $665//$680
Q1 $650//$670
MAP Brazil
Jun $725//$740
Jul $722//$740
Aug $715//$735
South African buyer that Chinese CN prices are somewhere between 170-190 fob
[Urea] On June 9, the daily production of the urea industry was 205,100 tons, an increase of 6,400 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 26,200 tons from the same period last year; today's start-up rate was 89.18%, an increase of 6.56% from 82.62% last year.
𝗣𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗽𝗵𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗣𝗼𝗶𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴: 𝗔𝗹𝗹 𝗘𝘆𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝗝𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗮𝗻’𝘀 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟭𝟱 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗶𝗲𝘄
The phosphate rock market is approaching a pivotal moment as JPMC prepares to announce its Q3 2025 pricing on June 15. With global supply tightening, this update could set the tone for phosphate rock trade across Asia, the Middle East, and beyond.
𝘞𝘩𝘺 𝘑𝘰𝘳𝘥𝘢𝘯’𝘴 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘴
– Jordan is a 𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿 of 30–31% P₂O₅ phosphate rock to buyers in India, Indonesia, and Vietnam.
– In 2024, JPMC 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝟭.𝟰 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 tonnes to Indonesia alone, and demand in the region remains robust.
– Jordanian FOB prices directly influence CFR benchmarks, especially in India, where Q2 levels range $160–215/t depending on grade.
𝗠𝘆 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗮𝘀 𝗮 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿-𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗼𝗯𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲𝗿:
Jordan’s Q3 price decision could become the de facto market driver through Q3. Any significant adjustment will quickly translate into DAP/MAP cost structures, especially in markets where phosphate rock is directly converted for blending or local production.
𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘨𝘪𝘤 𝘴𝘶𝘨𝘨𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘣𝘶𝘺𝘦𝘳𝘴
1. Evaluate supply chain flexibility now — don’t wait for June 15 to assess options.
2. Prepare to either lock in Jordan-origin rock quickly post-announcement or diversify through Egyptian, Syrian, or alternative blends if prices rise sharply.
If rock becomes more competitive relative to finished DAP/MAP (still ~$730–750/t CFR in SEA), local acidification or blending could offer margin relief.
https://kyivindependent.com/chemical-plant-in-russias-tula-oblast-reportedly-hit-2nd-time-in-drone-attack/
*Demand surges*
Importers are seeking 16+ tons.
*Demand surges*
Importers are seeking 12+ tons.
<img src='https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1465101178521-c1a9136a3b41' alt='Demo image' style='max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:8px;margin-top:10px;'>
*Inventory update*
Levels at 31% capacity.
*Supply tight*
Limited spot availability reported.
*Analyst note*
Market sentiment: 33.