*Policy watch*
Export policy changes expected soon.
*Policy watch*
Export policy changes expected soon.
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
<img src='https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1506744038136-46273834b3fb' alt='Demo image' style='max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:8px;margin-top:10px;'>
*Inventory update*
Levels at 21% capacity.
*Freight steady*
No major changes in rates.
*Demand surges*
Importers are seeking 12+ tons.
*Prices up*
Spot market sees a $30/mt increase.
India, once again, holds the center of gravity. Domestic production remains under pressure despite higher sales, and while inventories have improved slightly, they’re still well below last year’s levels. With Chinese exports only slowly emerging and Russian participation constrained by turnarounds and policy shifts, the availability of supply to meet Indian demand remains uncertain.
▪️ Latin America continues to defy expectations, showing a greater willingness to secure volumes even at elevated price points. Argentina and Chile are stepping in where others hesitate, while Mexico and Southeast Asia quietly build demand in the background. Even Dangote’s recent tender outcome surprised the market, reflecting how supply scarcity is influencing purchasing behavior.
▪️ #Europe, on the other hand, has been racing against time, locking in Russian tonnes before tariffs take effect in July. That window is now closing, and attention is turning eastward. Ethiopia has re-entered the picture with new tenders, and early signs of rain in Australia are adding to the broader demand outlook.
▪️ The global market appears stable on the surface, but underneath, pressure is quietly building. Inventory gaps, logistical bottlenecks, and shifting trade flows are converging at a time when confidence—not volume—is holding the price line. Chinese cargoes, though beginning to move, may arrive too late to rebalance July shipments. The question now is not whether India will buy, but whether the market can offer what it needs.
▪️ In a space that often trades on momentum, we’re in a moment of reflection—waiting, watching, and recalibrating. Producers are patient, buyers are cautious, and traders are preparing for a price environment that may soon move decisively.
▫️ The signal is clear: firmness with fragility. And the next move belongs to India.
▪️ As the market awaits the outcome of India's tender, the broader sentiment is not one of euphoria, but of calibrated tension. The tender's results will not only influence price benchmarks but also signal how much real slack exists in the system.
What is this for?
Morning. Int'l paper quiet for the most part y'day – Jun Brazil tightly framed either side of $390/last done by COB. In Nola urea, Jun paper found value mid-$360s, Sep traded upper-$360s ($3-$5 premium over Q3 strip).
AG
Jun $378//$395
Jul $380//$390
Aug $373//$382
cfr Brazil
Jun $389//$392
Jul $385//$397
Aug $391//$400
Sep/Oct $408 Offer
Egypt
Jun $395//$405
Jul $385///$400
Aug $375//$395
Q4 $370//$395
Nola
Paper:
Jun $360//$370 – traded $365, $366
Jul $355//$365
Aug $357//$365
Sep $365//$370 – traded $366, $368
Q3 $358//$366 – traded $363
Q4 $360//$375
UAN Nola
Jun $320//$340
Aug $235//$270
Sep $235//$270
DAP Nola
Jun $690//$705
Jul $695//$702 – traded $698
Aug $695//$705
Q3 $693//$705
Q4 $665//$680
Q1 $650//$670
MAP Brazil
Jun $718//$730
Jul $720//$735
Aug $710//$730
AG weekly index = $382.50
Cfr Brazil weekly index = $395
Egypt weekly index = $402.50
UAN Nola weekly index = $350
DAP Nola weekly index = $700
MAP Brazil weekly index = $727.50
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Feitong Daily Review: On June 5, the national urea market fell slightly; upstream pressure gradually emerged, actively seeking effective flow; middlemen's sentiment was more pessimistic due to futures, carrying out short selling operations; downstream demand is clearly differentiated, agricultural demand is gradually strengthening, industrial demand is entering the final stage, and overall demand continues to weaken. According to Feitong data, on June 5, 2025, the national urea daily production was 194,600 tons, down 0.69 million tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 83.42%. Overall, the downward pressure of the market is transmitted to the upstream, and the market is weak.
THE UREA MARKET IS IN A TWILIGHT ZONE WAITING FOR DIRECTION ON PRICES FROM THE INDIA 1.5 MILLION MT UREA TENDER ON JUNE 12TH AS WELL AS THE MUCH SMALLER BUT STILL IMPORTANT ETHIOPIA TENDER ON JUNE 10TH
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES KEEP GOING UP DUE TO LACK OF AVAILABILITY AND MAP PRICES IN BRAZIL HAVE INCREASED 15% SINCE THE END OF FEBRUARY THIS YEAR
-POTASH MARKET SAW A 650 KT MOP CONTRACT AGREEMENT BETWEEN BPC AND INDIA'S IPL AT USD 66 PMT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS CONTRACT – SUBSEQUENTLY RUSSIAN PRODUCER URALKALI FOLLOWED SUIT ON PRICING YET VOLUME IS NOT ANNOUNCED YET
-AMMONIA JUNE CONTRACT BETWEEN YARA AND MOSAIC SETTLED AT USD 23 PMT LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS CONTRACT AT USD 392 PMT CFR TAMPA – THE CONTRACT WAS CLOUDED BY A SPOT PURCHASE BY MOSAIC AT USD 370 CFR TAMPA
The urea market is in a twilight zone with major markets like the US and Europe entering off-season from major buying whilst others like Brazil are slowly entering into major second half of the year buying. Key markets like Australia and Thailand are in the middle of their major season but dry weather conditions in certain parts of south eastern Australia are causing major concerns for farmers and animal welfare. On the brighter side market participants are awaiting the June 12th India tender calling for 1.5 million MT to the west coast only. Opinions in the trading community is that India may struggle to secure more than 800KT to 1 million MT. Urea inventories in India are said to be around 7 million MT at the end of May which is well below those of the same month in 2024 at 11.3 million MT. Domestic production is also down at 2.35 million MT in May vs 2.5 million MT in May 2024. Adding to this the monsoon has started the earliest since 2029 thus it would be essential for India reaching a successful volume in the upcoming tender. Although China has started concluding urea export contracts with effective shipments at the end of June early July, it appears that no urea from China will take part in the India tender as per announcement by Chinese authorities responsible for overlooking exports. Thus it is expected that urea origins will be from the Middle East, Russia and North Africa with the SE Asia's producers providing marginal quantities.
Adding to India Ethiopia has announced another tender closing on the 10th of June 10th for 260 KT of which some is said to be replacement for some non-performance from the previous tender. On the trading side international paper derivatives are in a stand-off seeking direction. Dangote of Nigeria appears to have sold a cargo with open destination at USD 393 PMT FOB whilst June Brazil paper is at USD 390 PMT CFR. One Chinese urea cargo, possibly two, has changed hands at the low USD 370s expected to be sold into Latin South America with Chile the prime target. China has a floor price of USD 370 PMT FOB.
Petronas of Malaysia appears to have sold 30 KT to Australia for first half June shipment with no price disclosed but probably in line with the most recent Indonesia FOB tender result of around USD 370 PMT FOB. A prilled urea tender in Indonesia this week saw the highest bid at USD 360 PMT FOB with a floor price in the USD 370s PMT FOB. Egyptian producers are gradually resuming full production from gas supply issues and small lots have been sold to Europe at the USD 405-407 PMT FOB level.
Import urea levels for the US have just been published and for the fertilizer year July 2024 to the end of April, the cumulative imports are 4.5 million MT, about what was expected. For the full year ending at the end of June it is very possible the cumulative number will exceed 5 million Short Tons vs the 2024 volume of 5.6 million Short Ton. Values at New Orleans continue to slide amid a dearth of activity with loaded values now at $357/st FOB compared to the $522/st FOB level seen last month. Significant falls have also been witnessed inland this week.
The outlook for the urea price over the next 30-45 days will be subject to the outcome of the India and Ethiopia tenders but in most likelihood stable to strong.
Processed phosphate prices keep going up due to lack of availability from China. DAP/MAP production in China dipped 2.9% at 2.5 million MT vs same period last year. DAP declined 18% to 1.15 million MT whilst MAP was up 13% to 1.4 million MT. For the January to April period DAP/MAP production hit 10.11 million MT, up 8% Y/Y. Full year 2024 DAP/MAP production reached 30.5 million MT with MAP edging DAP at 15.32 million MT vs DAP at 15.11 million MT. It is expected, however, that China will start exporting the allocated 2 million MT of DAP and 1 million MT of MAP very soon. Russian MAP is reported sold in Brazil at USD 730 PMT CFR, which is up from last week's benchmark of USD 725 PMT CFR, a robust 15% or USD 93/93 PMT since late February this year. Ma'aden of Saudi Arabia is said to have sold 100,000 MT of DAP to India at USD 638 PMT CFR. SE Asia offers are rumored to be at a larger price of USD 745-750 PMT CFR, this also due to a significant freight differential to the India freight or around USD 10 PMT.
Imports of DAP/NP/NPK to Indonesia have more than doubled over the same period as last year with January-April 2025 imports at 272,154 MT vs 127,421 MT Y/Y. DAP was at 89,990 MT of which Morocco 47,642 MT and 41,705 MT from Vietnam. On the NP/NPS imports of 16,598 MT all originated from China. The reason for the increased processed phosphate imports to Indonesia is the increased production capacities of NPK in order to fulfill the government's desire for balanced fertilization to increase rice production thus becoming less reliant on rice import. Food security for the growing population in Indonesia.
The outlook for the processed phosphate prices is to increase until China enters the market in earnest.
In the potash market, Chinese importers have signed a cross-border contract with Russia's Uralkali for white standard MOP at $323/t dap Manzhouli (border between Russia and China) for June shipment, unchanged from April, after they failed to sign a contract in May. The contracted amount for June is understood to be lower than usual because the market is in its off-season. Differing views on price between the parties may also have limited the amount taken up under the contract.
MOP demand in the Chinese market has tapered off because production of NPKs for the summer corn application season has ended. This lack of buy-side demand has prompted Chinese importers to push for lower prices, but firm pricing and demand in international markets mean suppliers are resistant to lowering their prices. No contract was signed in May, likely because of the difference in price ideas between buyers and sellers.
China sources most of its MOP import supply by rail from Russia under a monthly contract. It also has annual contracts for seaborne supply from Canada, Russia, Belarus and Israel. China's annual contract price for this year has not yet been determined, but it should exceed last year's contract price of $273/t cfr, which was signed in July.
Indian IPL has also signed a 650KT contract for delivery to the end of 2025 with BPC of Belarus at USD 349 PMT CFR, up from the previous contract price of USD 283 PMT CFR. The price includes 180 days credit. Apparently Russian Uralkali has followed suit with the same price and payment terms although volume has not been announced. Brazilian MOP prices firmed slightly, rising $1/t to $360–376/t CFR. While demand remains slow, both buyers and sellers are taking a cautious approach to concluding the remainder of the season’s soybean-related purchases. The price gap between inland and port levels continues to weigh on transaction volumes.
The outlook for potash prices is stable to firm, the latter particularly in SE Asia.
Amidst the backdrop of another decline at Tampa, the ammonia picture on both sides of the Suez was partially blurred heading into the first week of June, with buyers and sellers largely in disagreement over where prices are at present and where they are headed moving towards Q3. Yara and Mosaic have finally announced the June ammonia contract which led to a price reduction from the previous contract of USD 415 PMT CFR Tampa to USD 392 PMT CFR. Normally Yara and Mosaic would announce the contract price a few days prior to the month for which it refers, but apparently, the Trammo sale to Mosaic at USD 370 PMT CFR recently made, clouded negotiations.
Prices on both sides of the Suez appear balanced for the time being, though fundamentals still suggest there is room for values to depreciate a little further in the West
Morning. Int'l paper quiet for the most part y'day – Jun Brazil tightly framed either side of $390/last done by COB. In Nola urea, Jun paper found value mid-$360s, Sep traded upper-$360s ($3-$5 premium over Q3 strip).
AG
Jun $378//$395
Jul $380//$390
Aug $373//$382
cfr Brazil
Jun $386//$392
Jul $385//$397
Aug $391//$400
Sep/Oct $408 Offer
Egypt
Jun $395//$405
Jul $385///$400
Aug $375//$390
Q4 $370//$390
Nola
Paper:
Jun $360//$370 – traded $365, $366
Jul $355//$365
Aug $357//$365
Sep $365//$370 – traded $366, $368
Q3 $358//$366 – traded $363
Q4 $360//$375
UAN Nola
Jun $320//$340
Aug $235//$270
Sep $235//$270
DAP Nola
Jun $690//$705
Jul $695//$702 – traded $698
Aug $695//$705
Q3 $693//$705
Q4 $665//$680
Q1 $650//$670
MAP Brazil
Jun $718//$730
Jul $720//$735
Aug $710//$730
[Urea] On June 5, the daily production of the urea industry was 200,700 tons, a decrease of 0.40 million tons from the previous working day and an increase of 25,700 tons from the same period last year; today's start-up rate was 87.27%, an increase of 6.01% from 81.26% last year.