*Inventory update*
Levels at 8% capacity.
*Demand surges*
Importers are seeking 22+ tons.
*Prices up*
Spot market sees a $29/mt increase.
*Prices up*
Spot market sees a $23/mt increase.
*Freight steady*
No major changes in rates.
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
*Policy watch*
Export policy changes expected soon.
*Supply tight*
Limited spot availability reported.
That’s a good question and the answer is it varies depending on the situation. Plus you have some owners that simply won’t go there which means those that will can command a premium – but it’s so time / event sensitive – as to whether prohibitive it will depend on the product pricing and availability / demand I guess
Urea price indications pushed higher in most markets today, but liquidity dried up with suppliers pulling physical offers after Israel carried out air and missile strikes against Iran in the early hours of today.
Middle East: Iranian urea infrastructure was untouched in the attacks, with production and vessel loadings understood to be ongoing. Suppliers have pulled fresh fob Middle East offers amid the uncertainty.
Algeria: A supplier is understood to have sold 45,000t of granular urea at $417/t fob for loading in July. One producer has rejected bids in the low $420s/t fob.
Egypt: All urea plants have stopped production in the wake of the attacks, with piped gas supply from Israel going off line. Front-month TTF gas futures on the Intercontinental Exchange rose by more than 6pc to just over €38.50/MWh at 12:10 CET (10:10 GMT), before slipping slightly to about €38.30/MWh as of 16:50 CET.
Brazil: Urea derivatives jumped, with the paper July contract trading at $455/t cfr before slipping to $435/t cfr later in the day, according to a broker. The July contract stood at $395-405/t cfr on the evening of 12 June.
US: Offers for urea barges initially appeared at $400/st for June and $390/st fob July but have yet to draw buyer interest. Argus assessed granular urea at $345-355/st fob Nola on 12 June.
China: Prilled urea prices were slightly firmer in the aftermath of the attacks, but indications were still below $360/t fob.
India: Prices in NFL's 12 June urea tender emerged, with the lowest offers at $399/t cfr west coast for a combined 229,000t from two trading firms. NFL has issued counterbids to all 23 suppliers in the tender, valid until 16 June.
Central America: Incofe closed a tender on 12 June, seeking 13,500-15,000t of prilled urea and 4,000-7,000t of granular urea, among other products, for Atlantic ports, largely for loading from 10 July-5 August. A trading firm was heard to have sold the granular urea at $400-410/t cfr, with prilled urea at $10/t below.
Nigeria: Dangote sold two 30,000t cargoes of granular urea at about $380/t fob Lekki to one trading firm under its 12 June tender. The deals were heard in a range of $380-383/t fob and took place late on 12 June.
https://m.novinite.com/articles/232809/Russian+Fertilizer+Ship+Stranded+at+Bulgaria%27s+Burgas+Port
Friday, 13 June 2025 (Acerto)
Urea
Nigeria: Dangote has sold two cargo of 30,000t of granular urea with loading dates 21-24 June and 26-28 June in the low-mid $380s/t FOB Lekki under its 9 June sales tender.
TSP YUC sold FOB 490 last month
The global market is closely watching events in the Middle East following news of Israeli air strikes against Iran. Energy markets have responded with oil prices firming overnight. Dutch TTF gas contracts have also edged higher, firming from €36.7MMBTu to over €38MMBTu for the September contract.
At this early stage, there has been no major response in the nitrogen market, although most acknowledge there is greater uncertainty. Many are waiting to see how the situation develops in the coming days.
The attacks overnight do not appear to have impacted production sites or logistics in Iran for the time being. Iranian urea exports in 2024 totalled 5.7m. tonnes with other suppliers in the Middle East typically exporting around 15.5-16m. tonnes/year, a sizeable portion of global trade, which is estimated at 55-56m. tonnes.
Fresh news of production cutbacks in Egypt, which may be related to gas supply issues from Israel, has spurred some business in Algeria with sales concluded up to $417pt fob for July, $7-12pt above highest levels seen of late.
Egypt: Most granular urea lines across at least four producers have been shut down overnight. Some reports indicate that all producers have been affected with some plants fully down with others operating at reduced rates for now.
While feedstock gas supply has been an issue on and off for at least over a year, the latest cutbacks appear to have been sudden and somewhat unexpected. No timeline has been outlined for when the situation may be resolved.
Some local reports have suggested the latest production cutbacks are related to the suspension of gas supplies from Israel. However, no precise details have emerged.
Egyptian nitrogen production came back onstream only around 1-2 weeks ago with the last round of gas supply issues occurring in mid-May. At the time, these were put down to increased local demand and infrastructure issues.
When at full capacity, Egyptian urea exports range from 365-390,000t per month with nearly all of the product granular urea. This equates to around 12-13,000t per day and marks around half of total nameplate capacity with the remaining volumes placed in the domestic market. Monthly exports have, however, been below these levels for some time.
Production by producer:
Mopco: Three granular urea lines which produce around 635,000t/year each.
Abu Qir: One prilled urea line capable of producing 580,000t/year along with one granular urea line producing 635,000t/year.
Fertiglobe/EFC: Two lines producing a combined 1.7m. tonnes/year of granular urea.
NCIC: One granular urea line on the Red Sea coast with a capacity of 380,000t/year.
Kima: One granular urea line producing 570,000t/year of granular urea.
Alexfert: One granular urea line producing 635,000t/year of granular urea.
Helwan: One granular urea line producing 650,000t/year granular urea line.
Algeria: AOA is understood to have sold 45,000t of granular urea for July shipment at a reported $417pt fob.
It is unclear if the sale is to one or many traders. Last concluded business in Algeria took place earlier this month with highest prices achieved up to $405-410pt fob.
China: Owing to weak domestic demand and the ongoing high production rates, domestic values have declined to below Rmb 1,700pt ex-works with latest values put at Rmb 1,660-1,700pt exw. The latest values are equivalent to $252-258pt fob. Production rates remain at 207,000t/day after reaching these levels earlier in the week.
According to Abisolo (Brazilian Association of Plant Nutrition Technology Industries), the market for special fertilizers is expected to quadruple by 2035 and move more than R$ 990 billion.
In 2024, the sector earned R$ 26.9 billion in the Brazilian market, with a growth of 18.9% compared to the previous year. It sold 8.9 million tons of special solid fertilizers and 117.5 million liters of liquid fertilizers, based on data from only more than 140 companies associated with Abisolo.
The trend of using special fertilizers is growing in the global market as a result of greater production efficiency and more sustainable practices.
In this scenario, Brazil has the chance to lead the specialty fertilizer market, produce more, with less impact, and even open new paths in international trade.