[Update the situation in Israel]
Both sides continued to airstrike each other. Israel, which had air control, directly dropped bombs on Iran, and Iran, which did not have air control, kept firing missiles at Israel.
Iran has already launched more than 400 ballistic missiles and more than 1,000 drones, and with the current intensity, it is estimated that the missile stockpile will be depleted in about half a month, after which it will be difficult for Iran to replenish the stockpile in a timely manner due to domestic production limitations. Iran has 12,000 drones, which can last a long time, but they are far less of a threat to Israel than missiles.
The good news for Iran is that Israel's prevention and control stockpiles are also running out quickly, according to foreign media reports, at current strength only enough to last 10 days, but Israel can replenish them from the United States, and Iran… nobody will sell them weapons at this time.
Although Iran says it wants to build 30 new missile factories, the actual capacity is not feasible under sanctions and blockades.
At present, the most concerned is the attitude of the United States, which reportedly has approved a strike plan against Iran but has suspended implementation, and as soon as he nods, the U.S. military will immediately leave the operation. The primary target is the Fordo underground nuclear facility. As I see today, it may not be enough to analyze one heavy dropped bomb. It would require two consecutive hits in the same position, which is not an easy task for the US military.
So the U.S. and Israel have a standby plan to bomb first with heavy dropped ordnance and then send ground troops in to resupply. Just so "confidential" action plan even I am such a casual observer know… Designated as a booby trap.🙃
People now holding gold, crude oil, military, virtual currencies, shipping, including those betting on a chain plate, are anxiously awaiting the operation of the US military. Exploding? Or don't you blow up? It will have a dramatic impact on the related sectors.
[The China Phosphate and Compound Fertilizer Industry Association has issued an initiative to ensure the stable supply and pricing of phosphate-ammonium fertilizers]
On June 19, 2025, the association will advocate for the entire industry to ensure phosphorus-ammonium supply and stabilize its price, while also accepting social oversight. If any phosphorus-ammonium production enterprises are found to be raising prices or hoarding their products, members are encouraged to report their findings to the association. Upon verification, appropriate actions will be taken to address the issue.
• Oversight Hotline: 010-82035207 (during business hours)
· Monitoring email: zlgffgyxh@126.com
Price announcement for phosphate ammonium products (standard common varieties) for June 18, 2025
· DAP with 64% phosphorus content, East China Region (first delivery point): 3,950 RMB per ton;
· Diammonium phosphate, 57%, North China (first delivery point): 3,600 RMB per ton;
• 55% granular ammonium nitrate, central China (factory price): 3,350 RMB per ton;
• 58% granulated ammonium nitrate, East China region (factory price): 3,650 RMB per ton;
· 60% granular ammonium nitrate, southwestern region (factory price): 3,850 RMB per ton.
As of June 19, 2025 (the 25th week), China's urea port sample inventory: 295 thousand tons, an increase of 50,000 tons, an increase of 20.41% month on month. This cycle Yantai Port, Tianjin Port, Jinzhou Port supply of large particles have arrived in port, Tianjin Port, Zhenjiang Port supply of small particles sporadic to port, the rest of the port no significant change, the overall port inventory continues to improve.
Bloomberg : My pleasure. Any thoughts on how long this price peak will go on? BTW, heard from a few folks in Singapore that if the US gets involved, the whole AG will be shut down. YOur thoughts?
Morning. Int'l paper focused again on Brazil y'day – Jul/Aug values slipped into mid-$470s after prior day $490 highs. In Nola, Q3 Urea bids pulled back to mid-$420s (traded $435-$445 range Tues), while Q3 DAP traded $720 (in-line).
AG
Jun $396//$408
Jul $445//$465
Aug $445//$465
Sep $430//$458
cfr Brazil
Jun $407//$420
Jul $467//$482 – traded $475
Aug $465//$480 – traded $480, $475
Sep $440//$470
Egypt
Jun $415//$430
Jul $455//$480
Aug $450//$475
Nola
Phys: July traded $415
Paper:
Jun $375//$400
Jul $425//$435
Aug $425//$435
Sep $430//$440
Q3 $425//435
Q4 $415//$440
UAN Nola
Jun $340//$370
Aug $240//$280
Sep $240//$270
DAP Nola
Jun $705//$720
Jul $715//$725
Sep $715//$730
Q3 $715//$730 – traded $720
Q4 $675//$690
Q1 $650//$670
MAP Brazil
Jun $727//$745
Jul $728//$740
Aug $720//$735
Ammonium sulfate prices are continuing to rise.❗️::
The price has been increased by 170, and there is an export order in place.
Shanxi Yangmei's 1,210 yuan per ton of isophthalic ammonium sulfate
UREA
The international fertilizer industry in general but the nitrogen sector in particular has been severely impacted by the conflict between Israel and Iran. There is a 24-7 continuous rolling by the minute set of news emerging thus difficult to assess the real impact of the crisis. At the time of writing this report, the following scenario has presented itself.
All seven urea production units in Iran with the main exporters being Pardis, Lordegan, MIS, KPIC, and Shiraz, have been idled with Iran’s annual urea capacity said to be close to 9 million metric tons with exports at 4.5 million MT annual yet sanctioned by the USA. Major receivers are importers in Turkey and Brazil. No urea/ammonia facilities believed to have been struck, but two natural gas facilities that supply Iran’s domestic market were hit on 14 June and nitrogen plants are understood to be flaring ammonia from storage tanks in case of further attacks.
Iran – net urea production 8.7 Mt/year or 725,000 t/month
Iran – sulphur exports in 2024 of 1.6 Mt, around 100,000-150,000 t/month currently
In addition, Egypt has idled all nitrogen facilities since gas from Israel has been stopped. All urea and ammonia production halted 13 June after Israel ceased pipeline exports of natural gas to Egypt. Production in Egypt is expected to remain shut down until gas imports from Israel resume, according to local sources, who suggest this is unlikely to occur until hostilities between Iran and Israel cease or at least subside significantly. Production by producer:
• MOPCO: Three granular urea lines which produce around 635,000t/year each.
• ABU QIR: One prilled urea line capable of producing 580,000t/year along with one granular urea line producing 635,000t/year.
• FERTIGLOBE/EFC: Two lines producing a combined 1.7m. tonnes/year of granular urea.
• NCIC: One granular urea line on the Red Sea coast with a capacity of 380,000t/year.
• KIMA: One granular urea line producing 570,000t/year of granular urea.
• ALEXFERT: One granular urea line producing 635,000t/year of granular urea.
• HELWAN: One granular urea line producing 650,000t/year granular urea line.
Egypt – net urea production 7.7 Mt/year or 640,000 t/month
Egypt – DAP+MAP production 300,000-350,000 t/year, 450,000 t/year capacity.
TSP is 250,000-300,000 t/year production, 385,000 t/year capacity.
The threat of Iran closing the Hormuz Strait would severely restrict more than 40% of global off-shore urea traded with producers from Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia plus Egypt all being prevented from shipping to export markets. In 2024 the following exports of urea took place among the top 10 producing countries:
Russia 8.8 mill MT – Qatar 5.3 mill MT – Iran 4.5 mill MT – Egypt 4.3 mill MT – Oman 3.9 mill MT – Saudi Arabia 3.9 mill MT – Nigeria 3.1 mill MT – Algeria 2.8 mill MT for a total of 32.7 million MT representing around 60% of global annual off-shore trade of 55 million MT.
Russia, the largest exporter of urea in 2024 at 8.9 million MT, is at war with the Ukraine and have been targeting nitrate facilities in the Ukraine. In addition, the European Union has introduced annually escalating tariffs on Russian fertilizers imports. China has implemented a limited export program with only 2 million MT made available until the end of September.
Shipping war risk insurance for the Middle East region has increased although not significantly yet, according to report. War risk has been around $30,000-40,000 for handysize + supramax carriers to enter and leave the region for some years. A marginal increase in insurance has not added much to the cost of freight yet. Owners will do as much as possible to avoid their vessels becoming stranded should the Strait of Hormuz be closed, or passage in the region restricted.
Navigating all the issues at stake makes for volatility in pricing and with NOLA/US in mind prices on granular urea in the barge went from USD 350 ST to USD 425 ST then back to USD 390 ST. Prices in Algeria went from well below USD 400 PMT FOB to USD 500 PMT FOB in just a matter of days and hours. Brazil August urea traded at USD 480 PMT CFR up USD 12.50 from last settlement. Brazil is a large importer of Iranian urea and stands to be materially impacted with the upcoming buying season. Chinese granular urea price is now reported at USD 420 PMT FOB which is USD 50 PMT above the floor price for exports set at USD 370 PMT for granular urea and USD 360 PMT for prilled urea.
India tendered for 1.5 million MT of urea and the Level 1 West Coast India price was at USD 399 PMT CFR offered by two companies for a total of 229,000 MT – all other bidders have gone into hiding due to escalating urea prices yet NFL, the India government purchasing agency, keeps extending the timeline for bids at no avail.
Prices on urea have shot up across the board with the latest FOB Middle East price at USD 450 PMT and Algeria at USD 500 PMT FOB. However, should the Hormuz Strait become closed we could see prices of urea not seen since COVID week 15 of 2022 when Algeria sold granular urea at USD 1,150 PMT FOB.
The outlook for urea prices is anyone’s guess – what is certain is that if there is an increased tension in the Middle East, urea prices will go up and to what extent! Already we see affordability being an issue with Australian farmers reluctant to buy urea at prevailing Middle East FOB prices around the USD 450 PMT FOB level.
Here's an update on the current situation in Iran.
Israel's attacks today have not yielded any significant results, and they are still using drones to locate and destroy ground-based air defense systems within Iran, thereby further solidifying their advantage in the air. However, Israel is now facing a challenge: their intelligence clearly indicates that Iran's Fordow nuclear facility is located 80-100 meters underground, where there is a substantial amount of enriched uranium, but Israel is unable to reach it.
Israel's ground-penetrating bombs can only reach a depth of 6 meters, and after several attempts, they have achieved little. To effectively target Iran's nuclear program, Israel must seek support from the United States, which possesses heavy ground-penetrating bombs capable of reaching depths up to 60 meters and thus ensuring the complete destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities.
Therefore, the subsequent development of the situation will be crucial. If Iran persists in pursuing its nuclear program underground and Israel is unable to handle the situation, it may force the U.S. military to intervene. Once the U.S. directly becomes involved in the conflict, the situation will escalate further, leading to even greater impacts on commodities and capital markets. This will be the focal point of the upcoming day or two.
It is worth noting that the likelihood of the US military intervening is rapidly increasing, according to capitalists' assessments.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-will-resume-natural-gas-exports-once-it-is-deemed-safe-says-minister/
The prices below are for indications and could change, if you need firm price please send me email to request quotation.
Weekly FOB prices
UREA
Prilled Urea(Bulk): FOB $400
Granular Urea(Bulk):FOB $440
Automotive Urea(Big Bag): FOB $430
Prilled Urea(9.5kg): FOB $390
Granular Urea(9.5kg):FOB $410
Automotive Urea(9.5kg): FOB $410
Ammonium Sulfate
Ammonium Sulfate (Capro grade):185 (Bulk)-Tianjin Port or FOB $180(Bulk)-River Port
Ammonium Sulfate (Mixed grade Granular):FOB $190(Bulk)-Tianjin Port
Ammonium Sulfate (Capro grade Granular):FOB $198(Bulk)-Tianjin Port
Phosphate
MAP11-44: FOB $580 (Bulk)-Zhenjiang Port
NP8-40:FOB $480 (Bulk)-Fangcheng Port
NP 20-20 : FOB $385 (Bulk)-Tianjin Port or Nanjing Port
DAP (9.5kg): FOB $730-Tianjin Port
Water-soluble
Calcium Nitrate Granular: FOB $175(Container/Break Bulk)-Tianjin Port
TMAP: FOB $1000-Tianjin Port
Financial Options: we can offer credit terms of 30-120 days for long-term stable clients. The interest rate will around 6% (annualized)
Market Analysis and Summary
UREA
As of June 18, 2025, the total inventory of urea enterprises in Longzhong Data was 1.136 million tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons from last week, a decrease of 3.49% from the previous month, and an increase of 326.43% from the previous year. Daily production slightly rebounded to around 205,000 tons. This week, affected by the Israel-Iraq war, international urea supply and shipping transportation were blocked. Geopolitical risks led to a rebound in domestic urea from a low level. Downstream purchases were active, and enterprises received very good orders. Enterprises turned to destocking, and the spot price in the mainstream delivery area rose to the RMB1730-1830 range.
Ammonium Sulfate
This week, the price of ammonium sulfate (AMSUL) has seen a huge increase. The mainstream delivery price for mixed compacted ammonium sulfate from factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Inner Mongolia to Tianjin Port now ranges from 180–190USD FOB. Offers for standard AMSUL have increased around 175-185FOB Tianjin Port; 170-180FOB River Port.
On June 18, 2025, China's total urea inventory was 1.136 million tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons from last week, a decrease of 3.49% month on month. The stockpiles of domestic urea enterprises have declined in this cycle, and the recent increase in urea harbors has been observed. The international geographical conflict has triggered an increase in domestic and international urea prices, which has driven the release of domestic agricultural demand, and the shipment of urea factories has increased, but some regional enterprises have a tendency to increase inventories, and the overall urea destocking is limited. The provinces with increased enterprise inventory include Anhui, Gansu, Hainan, Hebei, Hubei, Liaoning, Ningxia, Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Yunnan. Provinces with reduced inventory: Henan, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Sichuan.
Morning. While higher FOB phys sales reported in AG & Alegria y'day, Int'l paper focused on Brazil once again, as late buying saw Jul/Aug trade back up to $490cfr. In Nola, Q3 paper repeat traded within $438-$445 range ($440 last done).
AG
Jun $396//$408
Jul $450//$470
Aug $445//$465 – traded $455
Sep $435//$460
cfr Brazil
Jun $407//$420
Jul $475//$500 – traded $480, $490
Aug $480//$500 – traded $480, $470, $471, $477.50, 490
Sep $460//$485
Egypt
Jun $415//$430
Jul $460//$500
Aug $460//$500
Nola
Phys: June traded $415, $425, $430, Jul $423, Aug traded $427
Paper:
Jun $375//$400
Jul $425//$435 – traded $415
Aug $440//$450 – traded $435, $445
Sep $440//$455 – traded $445
Q3 $435//445 – traded $438,$445, $438, $435, $445, $440
Q4 $425//$450
UAN Nola
Jun $340//$370
Aug $240//$280
Sep $240//$270
DAP Nola
Jun $705//$720
Jul $715//$725
Sep $720//$735
Q3 $715//$735
Q4 $675//$690
Q1 $650//$670
MAP Brazil
Jun $727//$745
Jul $728//$740
Aug $720//$735
We can push it through
First urea vessel to leave yantai in over 2 years
Domestic urea sales in China