Fertilizer Industry Chain Early Reference 2025-7-14*
❤ Sulfur: Last week, the domestic port spot market showed volatile upward movement, with prices ranging from 2,330-2,340 yuan/ton, and mainstream reference prices rising 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. A domestic refinery’s sales tender results achieved consecutive increases, greatly boosting market confidence. Spot trading activity warmed up, electronic trading became significantly more active, and low-priced supplies became scarce in the market. However, downstream factories remained cautious in operations, mostly making just-in-time purchases, while port inventory consumption remained slow at high levels. Additionally, domestic and international markets showed significant divergence, with international market demand sluggish and mainstream resource spot prices showing a gradual downward trend in negotiations. Focus on downstream market entry and purchasing dynamics during this cycle – under current circumstances, if demand improves somewhat, the market may have expectations for positive performance.
❤ Urea: Last week, the domestic urea market rose amid volatility. Following news of Indian tender prices exceeding expectations, international prices rose. Driven by market sentiment and speculation about export quota news, domestic spot prices moved upward amid fluctuations. Based on current supply-demand contradictions and regulatory policy impacts, industry players are cautious about chasing price increases, and the urea market may operate in strong-side consolidation.
❤ Synthetic Ammonia: Last week, the domestic synthetic ammonia market showed an overall downward trend, with only localized areas experiencing minor price rebounds due to equipment maintenance affecting supply. Affected by traditional off-season consumption factors, downstream demand was generally weak, with purchasing enthusiasm weakening to varying degrees across regions. The market currently shows an oversupply situation, with most ammonia plants facing significant inventory pressure and focusing on actively offering concessions for shipments. Overall, lacking positive factor support, synthetic ammonia market is expected to maintain weak downward trends in the short term.
❤ Ammonium Chloride: Last week, the domestic ammonium chloride market maintained stable operation with improved trading atmosphere. Downstream inquiry enthusiasm increased, compound fertilizer manufacturers’ operating rates slowly improved, and just-in-time demand for ammonium chloride increased. However, overall demand did not surge, ammonium chloride companies’ losses intensified, with some shutting down for maintenance or reducing production. Supply pressure still exists, and this week’s ammonium chloride market is expected to continue stable trends.
❤ Ammonium Sulfate: Last week, the ammonium sulfate market stopped falling and rebounded. Due to high international urea price support, ammonium sulfate following sentiment was high, but both domestic and international markets are currently mostly shipping previous orders, with limited new order transactions. Short-term ammonium sulfate market expected to remain at high levels with wait-and-see attitude.
❤ Melamine: Last week, the domestic melamine market declined in a narrow range. Supply-demand relationship showed no obvious signs of improvement, prices fell to relatively low levels, and manufacturers’ willingness to adjust prices decreased. In the short term, if the market lacks positive guidance, trends may maintain weak fluctuation operation.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizer: Last week, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market’s overall trend was mainly consolidation, with Hubei 55-grade powder factory prices around 3,800-3,400 yuan/ton for actual negotiations. Factories continued executing pending orders, inquiries improved slightly, low-priced supplies were hard to find, and some transaction centers moved toward the high end. Downstream compound fertilizer operation trends improved slightly but remained at low levels. With most raw materials rising, purchasing remained as-needed. Short-term consolidation and wait-and-see operation expected. Last week, the domestic diammonium phosphate market maintained consolidation operation, with Hubei region 64% factory prices maintaining 3,800-3,850 yuan/ton, with actual orders remaining negotiable. Current market trading atmosphere continued to be lukewarm, downstream fertilizer stocking willingness was low, mostly maintaining cautious wait-and-see attitudes, mainly just-in-time restocking. Constrained by weak demand, the market will continue narrow-range consolidation in the short term.
❤ Potash Fertilizer: Last week, domestic potash fertilizer market prices continued rising, imported potash supply circulation was limited, domestic potash official prices were raised, and reluctance to sell sentiment among traders remained obvious. Potassium sulfate manufacturers’ equipment operating rates declined significantly, manufacturers continued losses with obvious cost pressure, but downstream acceptance of high-priced supplies was limited.
❤ Compound Fertilizer:* Last week, the domestic compound fertilizer market continued narrow consolidation trends. Upstream raw material prices continued pulling up, driving compound fertilizer costs higher. Pre-autumn low-end quotations decreased, companies now mainly focus on policy advance payments, with some brewing price adjustments. Short-term compound fertilizer market expected to adjust firmly upward.
*Demand surges*
Importers are seeking 28+ tons.
*Analyst note*
Market sentiment: 37.
*Analyst note*
Market sentiment: 12.
*Analyst note*
Market sentiment: 18.
<img src='https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1465101178521-c1a9136a3b41' alt='Demo image' style='max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:8px;margin-top:10px;'>
*Supply tight*
Limited spot availability reported.
*Demand surges*
Importers are seeking 38+ tons.
<img src='https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1500534314209-a25ddb2bd429' alt='Demo image' style='max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:8px;margin-top:10px;'>
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
*Inventory update*
Levels at 9% capacity.
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
*Analyst note*
Market sentiment: 24.
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
The U.S. dollar rose against major currencies including the yen and euro as President Donald Trump rekindled trade tensions with new tariffs on Canada and other trading partners.
Trump issued a letter late on Thursday that said a 35% tariff rate on all imports from Canada would apply from August 1. The European Union was set to receive a letter by Friday.
The U.S. president, whose global wave of tariffs has upended businesses and policymaking, floated a blanket 15% or 20% tariff rate on other countries, a step up from the current 10% baseline rate.
This week he surprised Brazil, which has a trade surplus with the United States, with duties of 50%, and hit copper, pharmaceuticals and semiconductor chips.
"There do appear to be some tariff jitters creeping in once again after Trump floating the blanket tariffs yesterday," Michael Brown, market analyst at online broker Pepperstone in London, said.
"Overall the moves that we have seen in the FX space are relatively contained, and recent ranges seem to still be respected for the time being," he added.
The U.S. dollar was up 0.79% to 147.4 against the Japanese yen , on track to add nearly 2% for the week – the biggest weekly gain since early December. It was flat against the Swiss franc at 0.79695 franc.
The euro was 0.1% lower at $1.1688, after Trump said the European Union could receive a letter on tariff rates by Friday, throwing into question the progress of Brussels' trade talks with Washington. Against the yen, the dollar was up 0.6% to 147.05 yen.
The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart and was down 0.11% at C$1.3672, following a knee-jerk fall of more than 0.5% after Trump unveiled the tariff rate. The Brazilian real was 0.26% lower against the dollar.
The market reaction to the slew of new tariffs has been largely muted compared to the manic sell-off that followed April's "Liberation Day" announcement, but investors remain on edge over the future of global trade and whether the August 1 deadline is final.
While the resurgence of tariff worries was helping support the buck, some traders remained sceptical about the medium-term outlook for the U.S. currency which has come under severe selling pressure this year.
"My base case remains for a slow but steady USD depreciation over the medium-term, but we have clearly already fallen a long way, in a short space of time, so there is scope for a bit of a rebound, especially if some of the more recent USD shorts begin to get squeezed," Pepperstone's Brown said.
Also supporting the dollar were data suggesting labour market resilience and minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting that tempered market expectations for imminent interest rate cuts.
The dollar index is down nearly 10% so far this year, on worries that data could soon reflect more widely the damage U.S. policies have had on the world's largest economy. It rose 0.28% to 97.85, on track to notch a weekly gain and snap two consecutive weeks of losses.
"USD/CAD has kept most of its gains after a meaningful knee-jerk rally on the announcement, but with those gains coming from the Dollar leg, with cross/CAD generally close to flat versus pre-announcement," Goldman Sachs analysts led by Stuart Jenkins said in an investor note.
Elsewhere, sterling was down 0.54% at a two-week low at $1.35050, as data showed Britain's economy contracted unexpectedly for a second month running in May.
Cryptocurrencies saw a boost, driven by institutional investor demand and crypto-friendly U.S. policies. Bitcoin advanced 3.7% and scaled yet another record high of $118,832, while ethereum jumped 5.9% to $2,987.15 "The … new record reflects the resilience of global risk appetite even in the face of Trump tariffs, as well as high optimism over U.S. legislative proposals," DBS FX and credit strategist Chang Wei Liang said.
He was referring to measures the U.S. House is set to advance in its upcoming 'Crypto Week'.
July 12th
Hefei compound fertilizer raw material
Zedong 55% ammonium powder comes out of factory 3410
Euzhou 53% of ammonium powder produced at the factory 3,240
55% powder ammonium produced by PUWON 3400
East Saint 55% powder ammonium production plant 3,370
Pfizer 55% powder ammonium produced 3,400
Cohai 55% powder ammonium produced 3,400
HTC 52% powder ammonium production 3150
Dasheng 58% powder ammonium produced 3,700
Zedong 72% manufactured ammonium 6160
52% of Roble powder was exported to the bank at 3,780 yuan
Salt Bridge 60% powdered potassium exits 3,400
Mixing fertilizer raw materials
Yun Tianhua 8-40 Ammonium Dioxide delivered to 2920-2950
Mercer 60% particle potassium 3530 (tonne pack) small pack 3 600
Zhumadian granular ammonium chloride
Round particle potassium chloride factory tonnage 3620 small packet 3640
Lianyungang Russian 60% granular potassium 3570
Roble 52% of grains of potassium sulfate reached storage at 3,930
57% diammonium produced by Xifa 3460
Yihua 64% diammonium cambogia production 3880
Shaanxi Chemical produced 60% yellow particles of ammonium diammonium at plant 3,640
Xiangfeng 57% yellow particles diammonium production 3330
Xiangfeng 64% ammonium dioxide production 3730