**Brazil + China Nitrogen**
Local Brazilian fertiliser media and trade information (Datamar, Brazil Agricultural Information) disclosed that during the internal economic and trade consultations of the Vieira delegation, the Chinese and Brazilian sides discussed stabilising the fertiliser and agricultural input supply chains through long-term agreements. The two sides also discussed potential areas for cooperation in green agriculture, bio-fertiliser technology, and sustainable agriculture.
Brazilian companies and accompanying economic and trade personnel expressed their intention to purchase urea and nitrogen fertiliser from China. The current demand is to fill the deficit for Brazil's autumn sowing fertiliser. Brazilian traders have made enquiries in China for an intended volume of at least 300,000 to 400,000 tonnes of urea.
India Urea tender analysis from the week 23 report about to be sent out:
<strong>All about India as usual…</strong>
Since its so quiet out there, I will give you my thoughts on the Indian urea import tender closing next week. The correct methodology for predicting L1 is not to anchor off paper mid-points or published PRA assessments. It is to start from the last confirmed physical sales in the most liquid comparable market, add every real cost between that origin and the discharge port, and arrive at a delivered number that a motivated seller can actually execute without losing money. Paper values tell you sentiment. Physical values tell you what trades. In a falling market the gap between the two widens, and bidding off paper mid-points will produce a number that is either too high to win or too low to deliver profitably. Then you have the shorters hiding out there….
I asked my newly built AI helper, affectionately named Aquibot to predict L1 and it gave me a thesis paper, with an extremely low prediction (USD 540 CFR!), I will distil my thought process for you now.
<strong>What do we know:</strong>
Market is in a correction, this will bring out the shorters
Qatar could not sell anything in there most recent tender, not a good start (did you see a urea cargo escaped the Straits of Hormuz, last seen heading to Thailand)
Brazil last done is USD 520 CFR, this is the opportunity cost market for India, comparing apples to apples puts India at USD 530 CFR
Who is the presently setting the low: NOLA (around USD 490-500 FOB) puts you in to India around USD 550 CFR, no margin
Which is the most popular origin in to India tenders: Russian prilled, lets say USD 490 FOB, plus actuals = USD 540 CFR, no margin
Paper values: FOB AG mid point June = USD 520 FOB, plus actuals (if you could ship it out!) = lets say USD 545 CFR
Can you now see a pattern, all the numbers are clumping around USD 550 CFR, no margin, this is for tonnage accessible in the market and not even considering the shorters (very brave if they go below this level).
We have not even discussed the very large elephant in the room – China – USD 670 FOB, I would say aspirational now (they massively missed the boat on this one!), so we can assume that the some bidders out there will enter a number basis China (USD 700 CFR +/-) and then look to cover in from elsewhere. On the grapevine in Asia we have already heard offers for China well under USD 600 FOB.
So to summarise, I expect to see a very large spread between L1 and the highest, the data above points to USD 540 CFR-700 CFR range, usually it ends up being somewhere around the midpoint, on this occasion USD 620 CFR, but I feel this level is still too high. If it were me, I would put in a safe number, let someone else do the L1, wait for China to announce the new price level (USD 520 FOB?) and then price match.
Then all we have to do is the analysis on volumes, will it be oversubscribed with shorters, traders with longs looking to liquidate (first loss, best loss!) or those wishing to back to back it
Head over to the **VOYAGE** tab, to see this weeks updated open freight enquiries:
Head over to the Vantage tab to see latest **DIRECT HEDGE** paper values/forward curve
**FALCON PAPER VALUES**
Urea paper under further pressure y'day with Nola the focus of activity once more – Q3/Q4 values initially fell $20-$15 from day prior to $425+/-, before dropping again to the $410-$415 range, and eventually finding some support. Mkts framed:
*AG*
Jun $510//$535
Jul $495//$525
*Cfr Brazil*
Jun $505//$540
Jul $480//$510
Aug-Sep $465//$495
*Egypt*
Jun $550//$610
Jul $500//$580
*cfr Brazil AS*
Jun $240//$260
Jul $240//$260
Aug $245//$265
*FOB China (Comp'd) AS*
Jun-Jul $230//$250
*Nola Urea*
Phys: Loaded traded $450, $447, $440. Jun $445
Paper:
Jun $410//$450
Jul $415//$420 – traded $425, $411
Aug $410//$422 – traded $425
Sep $415//$420 – traded $415
Oct $410//$425
Q3 $410//$420
Q4 $405//$420 – traded $425, $410
Q1 $415//$435
*DAP Nola*
Jun $765//$790
Jul $777//$790 -traded $785
Aug $775//$790
Sep $775//$790
*MAP Brazil*
Aug $905//$930
Sep $890//$910
CHINA UREA MARKET REPORT
Week 23, 2026 | 29 May to 4 June 2026
Source: OilChem (Longzhong Information)
MARKET VERDICT
The domestic Chinese urea market drifted lower across the week. The export narrative has been largely priced in. Fundamentals are now driving price direction, and they point down. High operating rates, elevated inventories, and a seasonal demand void created by the northern wheat harvest have left the market without a credible support mechanism. Expect continued soft-to-stable trade until demand conditions visibly improve.
DOMESTIC PRICES
Shandong Linyi closed the week at CNY 1,800/t, down CNY 40/t week-on-week. By Thursday, mainstream ex-works prices for small and medium granule in Shandong had slipped to CNY 1,750-1,800/t, with the weekly average down CNY 20/t. Across all monitored domestic markets the directional bias was negative, with only Liaoning Tieling, Inner Mongolia Tongliao, and Yunnan Dali holding flat.
Key domestic price movements (CNY/t):
Shandong Linyi: 1,800 (prior: 1,840, change: -40, -2.17%)
Shandong Heze: 1,790 (prior: 1,830, change: -40, -2.19%)
Jiangsu Suyu: 1,800 (prior: 1,850, change: -50, -2.70%)
Anhui Suzhou: 1,840 (prior: 1,850, change: -10, -0.54%)
Hebei Wenan: 1,820 (prior: 1,850, change: -30, -1.62%)
Liaoning Tieling: 1,880 (unchanged)
Inner Mongolia Tongliao: 1,910 (unchanged)
Henan Shangqiu: 1,800 (prior: 1,850, change: -50, -2.70%)
Hubei Jingmen: 1,830 (prior: 1,850, change: -20, -1.08%)
Hunan Yueyang: 1,860 (prior: 1,870, change: -10, -0.53%)
Jiangxi Nanchang: 1,870 (prior: 1,890, change: -20, -1.06%)
Sichuan Meishan: 1,810 (prior: 1,820, change: -10, -0.55%)
Yunnan Dali: 2,080 (unchanged)
Guangxi Nanning: 1,910 (prior: 1,950, change: -40, -2.05%)
Guangdong Jianggao: 1,940 (prior: 1,980, change: -40, -2.02%)
Fujian Zhangzhou: 1,950 (prior: 1,960, change: -10, -0.51%)
The main futures contract (September 2026) settled at CNY 1,773/t, down CNY 79/t (-4.27%) on the prior week.
SUPPLY
Weekly production reached 1.5094 million tonnes, up 69,400 tonnes week-on-week (+4.82%). The national capacity utilisation rate rose 4.15 percentage points to 90.37%. Coal-based production reached 94.31% utilisation, gas-based at 75.81%. Daily output is running above 210,000 tonnes and is expected to hold in the 214,000-218,000 t/day range next week. Several units that had been under maintenance returned to service during the period, including Shandong Jinkong Mingshui, Lingshi Zhongmei, Xinjiang Tianyun, Xingan League Boyuan, and Chengdu Yulong.
Over the coming three weeks, approximately five facilities are scheduled for maintenance while seven to eight are expected to resume production. The net effect is continued high daily output with no material reduction in supply pressure.
DEMAND
Domestic demand is in a seasonal trough. The northern wheat harvest has put agricultural consumption into an off-cycle gap. Compound fertiliser producers have reduced urea procurement, with Linyi daily urea consumption falling to 380 tonnes on 4 June, down 65.77% week-on-week. Forward order cover at Chinese urea producers averaged 5.76 days as of 3 June, down 0.59 days (-9.29%) from the prior period. Order intake was weakest in Shandong and Jiangsu, both down 40% week-on-week. Downstream buyers are operating on a hand-to-mouth basis.
Compound fertiliser capacity utilisation ticked up to 33.63% from 30.71%, driven by summer fertiliser replenishment activity primarily in tower-granulation units. Melamine utilisation edged up to 55.95%, and the rate is expected to improve further next week as the Xinjiang Yuxiang facility resumes.
INVENTORIES
Enterprise stocks fell to 891,400 tonnes as of 3 June, down 29,600 tonnes (-3.21%) on the prior week. This is the first decline after a month of continuous accumulation. The improvement reflects some order activity stimulated by export quota news, but inventories remain at historically elevated levels. Port stocks stood at 148,900 tonnes, marginally down 1,000 tonnes (-0.67%). Export logistics preparations including customs inspection work have not yet commenced in earnest, so port arrivals remain limited.
Next week enterprise stocks are forecast at approximately 900,000 tonnes, with port stocks expected at around 150,000 tonnes, both broadly flat.
INTERNATIONAL PRICES
All figures as of 28 May. The international market continued to soften. FOB Middle East small granule fell USD 70/t to USD 570/t (-10.94%). FOB Middle East large granule dropped USD 82/t to USD 367/t (-18.26%). FOB China small granule held flat at USD 655/t. FOB China large granule was marginally firmer at USD 670/t (+USD 5/t, +0.75%). Brazil CFR small granule fell to USD 570/t (-6.56%) and large granule to USD 580/t (-6.45%).
Key international developments:
India re-entered the market mid-week with a tender for 1.7 million tonnes of urea requiring shipment by 20 July, with the tender closing 8 June. This provided some sentiment support but has not arrested the broader price decline. China has allocated export quotas, but volumes, timing, and specific details remain unclear. Clarity is expected following an industry meeting next week. North African prices fell to USD 600-650/t FOB under growing European buyer resistance. In the Black Sea, Socar sold large granule at USD 555/t FOB Batumi for June shipment. Nigeria’s Dangote sold a further 120,000 tonnes of large granule to Ethiopia for June-July delivery, bringing its total monthly sales to approximately 240,000 tonnes. In the US, NOLA urea prices dropped by more than USD 80/t on weather, affordability, and timing headwinds.
COST AND MARGINS
Production margins are diverging by process route. The coal price increase this week lifted fixed-bed costs while new-gasification costs held relatively steady. Fixed-bed gross margin stands at CNY 22/t, down CNY 65/t week-on-week. New-gasification margin is CNY 201/t, up CNY 3/t. Natural gas-based production remains loss-making at -CNY 153/t, unchanged on the week. Synthetic ammonia margin fell sharply to CNY 65/t (-50.76% week-on-week) driven by ammonia price weakness. Compound fertiliser margin improved modestly to CNY 53/t (+8.16%). Melamine margin improved significantly to CNY 253/t (+27.14%).
The fully-loaded production cost reference for Jincheng coal market (small lump at CNY 1,050/t): fixed-bed estimated at CNY 1,650-1,750/t, new-gasification at approximately CNY 1,500/t.
RELATED MARKETS
Coal: Most producing mines maintained normal operations. After last week’s rapid price rise, downstream resistance increased. Delivery prices for gasification coal at urea plants were up CNY 10-20/t week-on-week; anthracite lump coal was up CNY 50-90/t. Most urea producers are buying on a just-in-time basis with limited stock-building.
Synthetic ammonia: Shandong held firm due to planned maintenance and expected volume reductions at ammonia producers. Hebei and Shanxi eased modestly. Hubei weakened as phosphate fertiliser operating rates continued to decline. Supply is adequate and demand is subdued. The market is in a holding pattern.
Compound fertiliser: The market stabilised with improving shipment volumes as summer fertiliser replenishment orders accumulated. Some previously idle tower-granulation units restarted. Early autumn fertiliser pre-orders are being taken at sporadic prices: 42% high-phosphorus wheat fertiliser at CNY 2,900-3,000/t ex-works, 25-13-7 grades at CNY 2,700-2,850/t. Autumn pre-order interest from distributors remains limited.
Melamine: Mainstream ex-works at CNY 5,700-5,800/t for atmospheric-pressure process. Industry operating rate is below 60%. Export orders are being impeded by high freight costs. Domestic demand is entering a seasonal slow period. Producers are holding prices but making selective concessions to move volume.
OUTLOOK
The market is expected to remain in a soft-to-stable range next week. Shandong Linyi is forecast to trade in the CNY 1,750-1,820/t range. Daily output holds near 214,000-218,000 tonnes and enterprise stocks are unlikely to see meaningful drawdown until agricultural demand resumes post-harvest. The India tender and Chinese export quota allocation provide a floor to sentiment but not to price. A tangible recovery requires visible improvement in domestic demand, which is not expected before mid-June at the earliest.
Watch points for the coming week: factory inventory levels, compound fertiliser operating rate, futures price direction, and progress on export detail clarification.
All CNY prices are ex-works unless stated. All USD prices are FOB unless stated. Report period: 29 May to 4 June 2026.
In today’s Qatar urea tender, it is understood that it didn’t sell.
Doesn’t bode well for the India tender next week
**Nexus Weekly Update**
*04/06/26*
The Pacific market has been exceptionally quiet this week, with very little buzz across the region. That said, while cargo volumes remain limited, rates continue to edge higher on the back of an increasingly tight tonnage list. Simply put, there may not be many cargoes around, but there are even fewer ships. The main activity continues to come from steel cargoes ex Korea, Japan and China, with charterers paying significant premiums to draw vessels away from the region. Combined with ongoing Panama Canal restrictions and delays, tonne-mile demand remains elevated and freight levels are following suit. On the supply side, there are fewer fronthaul opportunities emerging from the Atlantic, and with limited inbound tonnage expected over the coming weeks, there is little expectation of any meaningful increase in vessel availability in the Pacific. As a result, rates should remain well supported despite the lacklustre cargo market. Further south in Australia, activity remains subdued, with many market participants searching for opportunities simply to stay busy. There are a handful of alumina and spodumene stems in the market, alongside some forward grain enquiries, but overall sentiment remains unchanged. Cargo flow is sufficient to provide a degree of support, although there is little momentum or excitement across the region.
There was a significant tightening of tonnage this week in the Indian Ocean, with the most prominent reduction being seen from the East Coast of India. This has been due to the recent flow of iron ore cargoes to China and the strong South East Asian market pulling ballasters away. Despite the tighter tonnage lists, rates remain steady due to lack of demand, which in turn resulted in the market feeling considerably quieter than usual. Further south with the weather improvement we may start to see increased demand coming from South Africa, however it will take a little bit of time to work through the tonnage lists if there is to be any sign of rates picking up in the near term.
The Continent experienced another difficult week, with cargo volumes falling below already subdued levels seen previously. Activity across several commodity groups softened, leaving owners with fewer opportunities to secure employment and increasing competition for available business. As a result, conditions in the basin remain challenging, with little indication of a meaningful recovery in the near term. In contrast, the Mediterranean enjoyed a more active week. A noticeable increase in cargo activity across a range of trades including fertilisers provided greater optionality for owners and helped support firmer freight levels. Consequently, many owners have opted to keep their vessels spot, anticipating that further gains may emerge in the coming weeks.
The USG has continued the positive momentum seen last week, with rates continuing to rise and sentiment remaining firm. Charterers with prompt enquiries are still being squeezed by a lack of fresh tonnage entering the market. However, concerns are growing that stronger USG rates will once again attract ballasters from Europe. Should this materialise, rates may start to come under pressure. As previously mentioned, the lack of fronthaul opportunities is also trapping tonnage in the Atlantic, further increasing concerns around vessel availability and how quickly tonnage lists could build if market conditions change. The NCSA market continued to perform well, supported by the ongoing strength of the US Gulf. A number of soybean cargoes emerged from northern Brazil for destinations in both the Black Sea and Continent, likely representing some of the final movements from this season’s harvest programme.
The ECSA market remained relatively flat this week. Most fresh enquiry was focused on transatlantic business, while fronthaul demand remained limited. Notably, cargoes into the Continent are now achieving similar levels to those destined for the East Mediterranean, highlighting the continued lack of activity in the Cont. West Africa experienced a largely unchanged week due to the lengthening of the tonnage list in the basin. There is a premium being commanded by vessels carrying sufficient bunkers to reach key Far East bunkering hubs, while ships requiring a bunker stop en-route are less competitive.
Bunker prices have edged higher each day over the past four days. Current VLSFO prices stand at approximately $810 pmt in Singapore, $1025 pmt in Fujairah and around $730 pmt in Gibraltar. While headline prices in Fujairah remain elevated, it is rumoured that only one supplier currently has meaningful spot availability, with some owners reportedly receiving quotations in excess of $1,400 pmt for prompt stems due to the tightness of supply and competition for available product.
UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan is flagging a serious supply risk for African agriculture. Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, she warned that fertiliser supplies to Africa could fall by 10%. Her numbers on the crop side are stark: a 10% fertiliser shortfall translates to a potential 25% decline in corn, wheat and rye production.
She was speaking in a personal capacity, not for UNCTAD
Indian Tender positioning is already starting, a week out.
Traders are trying to push the market up with a range for the NFL tender at USD 725-1,000/mt CFR. China is not moving urea to India below USD 680 FOB at present, so USD 725 CFR is a credible minimum when you account for the cost package (at a push)
The bull case rests on three legs: AG-grade tonnes are absent, Russian availability is reportedly constrained through the June/July shipment window, and the remaining supply pool narrows to China plus perhaps a cargo apiece from Egypt and Nigeria. Thin book, the argument goes, means sellers hold the price.
The counterweight is Brazil. If Indian buyers dig in and Brazilian buyers are prepared to pay above USD 700/mt CFR, Chinese exporters will take the path of least resistance and route west. India does not have a monopoly on Chinese urea, and sellers know it.
USD 1,000CFR would require every bearish variable to fail simultaneously. Possible, but it is a long way from the base case.
Now, let’s discuss reality! Brazil is at USD 520 cfr, which puts India (like for like) at USD 530 CFR, there or thereabouts.
If I were in charge of a urea desk, I would also bid in basis China FOB (+actuals) and look to cover in elsewhere.
Helwan, in Egypt down for maintenance until July 15th
Libya issues new urea tender, closing 8th June 2027
**Tanzania**
Dar es Salaam recorded 27.7 million tonnes throughput in 2024/25, up 15 percent year-on-year. Tanzania Ports Authority has set a 2030 target of 54.6 million tonnes. Transit cargo to Zambia, DRC, Malawi and Zimbabwe is driving growth, putting the port in direct competition with Durban, Walvis Bay and Beira for Copperbelt minerals, fuel and project cargo.
A USD 421 million modernisation programme has deepened the channel and berths to 14.5 metres, removing tidal restrictions for larger vessels. Berth count is being expanded from 12 to 22, with new Malindi area berths adding roughly three million tonnes of annual capacity and easing congestion.
The critical near-term development is the Standard Gauge Railway freight connection, due for commissioning in June 2026. Combined with the Malindi marshalling yard, this links the port directly into Tanzania's inland network and reduces road dependence. Alongside ongoing TAZARA corridor rehabilitation, it creates a more competitive eastern export route for copper, cobalt and containerised cargo out of the Copperbelt.
Dar es Salaam is consolidating its position as the primary eastern corridor for DRC and Zambian trade. Freight operators should be watching the Malindi hub closely and positioning for rising intermodal volumes as rail capacity comes online.
Latest Import & Export Data – click file link below to see..
<a href="https://www.staging.aquifert.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/2026-Thailand-Urea.xlsx">2026 Thailand Urea</a>
<a href="https://www.staging.aquifert.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/2026-Thailand-NH3.xlsx">2026 Thailand NH3</a>
<a href="https://www.staging.aquifert.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/2026-Thailand-MOP.xlsx">2026 Thailand MOP</a>
<a href="https://www.staging.aquifert.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/2026-Thai-AS.xlsx">2026 Thai AS</a>
<a href="https://www.staging.aquifert.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/2026-Indonesia-Urea-1.xlsx">2026 Indonesia Urea</a>
<a href="https://www.staging.aquifert.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/2026-Indonesia-NH3-1.xlsx">2026 Indonesia NH3</a>
<a href="https://www.staging.aquifert.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/2026-Ethiopia-Urea.xlsx">2026 Ethiopia Urea</a>
<a href="https://www.staging.aquifert.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/2026-Ethiopia-DAP.xlsx">2026 Ethiopia DAP</a>
<a href="https://www.staging.aquifert.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/2026-Brazil-Urea-1.xlsx">2026 Brazil Urea</a>
<a href="https://www.staging.aquifert.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/2026-Brazil-NH3-1.xlsx">2026 Brazil NH3</a>
<a href="https://www.staging.aquifert.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/2026-Brazil-MOP-1.xlsx">2026 Brazil MOP</a>
<a href="https://www.staging.aquifert.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/2026-Brazil-MAP-1.xlsx">2026 Brazil MAP</a>
<a href="https://www.staging.aquifert.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/2026-Brazil-AS-1.xlsx">2026 Brazil AS</a>
**Falcon Paper Values Today**
Nola Urea dominated paper activity again y'day – Q3 initially traded up $440 to $450, before Bid//Offers returned either side of $440 end of day, while Q4 traded down $11 on the day. Int'l urea paper saw offers move lower throughout the day, with July Brazil repeat trading $520. Mkts framed:
*AG*
Jun $530//$550
Jul $525//$545
*Cfr Brazil*
Jun $520//$540
Jul $520//$525 – traded $520
Aug $510//$530
*Egypt*
Jun $550//$625
Jul $520//$590
*cfr Brazil AS*
Jun $245//$260
Jul $245//$260
Aug $250//$270
*FOB China (Comp'd) AS*
Jun-Jul $230//$250
*Nola Urea*
Paper:
Jun $440//$460
Jul $433//$440
Aug $435//$445
Sep $435//$445
Oct $$435//$445
Q3 $435//$445 – traded $440, $450, $445
Q4 $435//$445 – traded $450, $439
Q1 $430//$445
Option: Q3 $420 P traded $11
*DAP Nola*
Jun $765//$790
Jul $780//$790
Aug $780//$795 – traded $790
Sep $780//$790
*MAP Brazil*
Aug $910///$930
Sep $892//$910