Market Intelligence Feed

China floor price to non-India destinations:

– USD 490 FOB for qty less than 10kt
– ⁠USD 480 FOB for qty more than 10kt

Is the message doing the rounds this am

2026-06-11 by Phil Sunderland

**F/X**

The dollar softened on Wednesday after US CPI data showed annual inflation at 4.2% through May, the highest reading since April 2023, though the figure matched consensus forecasts and did little to shift Fed rate expectations. The dollar index slipped 0.1% to 99.875, having touched a two-month high of 100.214 on Monday. Core inflation remained contained despite elevated energy costs, with analysts noting that Iran war-driven fuel price rises had not yet fed through into broader price measures. Glenmede's Jason Pride observed that three months of elevated energy costs had produced no meaningful pass-through to core goods, characterising this as evidence the Iran shock had not become a generalised inflation episode.

Fed rate expectations shifted only modestly, with traders edging away from a September hike but retaining conviction around October. A Reuters economist poll pointed to the Fed holding its key rate for the remainder of 2026. Corpay's Karl Schamotta noted traders were positioning for a neutral tone at next week's FOMC meeting and modestly trimming year-end hike bets.

Geopolitical risk kept markets cautious. President Trump stated the US would strike Iran if no peace deal is secured, and separately disclosed that US forces had secretly escorted vessels carrying more than 100 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, helping moderate crude prices.

On the yen, a Bank of Japan rate hike at the 16 June policy meeting is now largely priced in, limiting its potential market impact. Analysts said Governor Ueda would need to signal an accelerated tightening path, potentially bringing forward the next hike from December to September, to meaningfully arrest yen weakness. USD/JPY held around 160.475, a level widely regarded as the threshold for Ministry of Finance intervention. A Reuters poll projected the BOJ raising rates again in Q4, taking borrowing costs to 1.25% by year-end.

Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar gained 0.1% after the Bank of Canada held rates, though Governor Macklem signalled readiness to tighten if inflation warrants it. Sterling added 0.1% against the dollar ahead of Friday's UK GDP release. Bitcoin was broadly flat at USD 61,949.

2026-06-11 by Phil Sunderland

**Grains**

CBOT soybean futures closed higher on Wednesday for the first time in nine sessions, rebounding from multi-month lows as traders squared positions ahead of the USDA monthly supply and demand report due Thursday. July soybeans settled at USD 11.23 per bushel, up 9.25 cents on the day, having touched USD 11.10 the previous session, the contract's lowest print since 4 February. November new-crop added 6.5 cents to close at USD 11.38 per bushel. July soymeal settled at USD 301.90 per short ton and July soyoil closed at 75.33 cents per pound.

Soybeans and soyoil drew additional support from crude oil, which firmed after President Trump indicated the US would strike Iran if no peace agreement is reached. Oilseed markets tracked the move given the biodiesel demand link. US weather remained broadly favourable, limiting the upside, with widespread Midwest rainfall and moderating temperatures expected to support germination and early crop development.

Ahead of Thursday's USDA export sales data, trade estimates pointed to net old-crop soybean sales of up to 400,000 tonnes for the week ended 4 June and new-crop sales of up to 350,000 tonnes. On the South American supply side, the Rosario grain exchange raised its 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop estimate to 51.5 million tonnes and its 2026/27 Argentine wheat forecast to 20 million tonnes, both above its May projections.

ICE canola settled higher, supported by soyoil, crude oil, and late-planting concerns in the Canadian prairies. July canola rose USD 6.30 to USD 766.40 per tonne and November gained USD 6.70 to USD 774.50. Heavy prairie rainfall provided moisture to recently planted crops but raised concerns over unplanted fields, though analysts noted farmers who have committed to costly fertiliser applications are likely to plant regardless of conditions. Euronext rapeseed futures closed up 1.4% and Malaysian palm oil futures added approximately 0.35%.

2026-06-11 by Phil Sunderland

ESTIMATED FOB NETBACKS – KEY ORIGINS VS CFR INDIA (ECI/WCI)
(After deducting trader's margin and related costs, including financing, insurance and inspections)

Dont forget to try out our freight calculator, to test these netbacks

2026-06-11 by Phil Sunderland

<div id="model-response-message-contentr_4ca208e39d5bbca8" class="markdown markdown-main-panel stronger enable-updated-hr-color" dir="ltr" aria-live="polite">
<h3 data-path-to-node="0">Freight Analytics SAMPLE Orders Quoted: 10 June</h3>

<table data-path-to-node="1">
<thead>
<tr>
<td>Account</td>
<td>Vessel Size / Cargo Quantity</td>
<td>Cargo Type</td>
<td>Load Port / Delivery</td>
<td>Discharge Port / Redelivery</td>
<td>Laycan / Dates</td>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Authentic Carriers</td>
<td>52,000 / 58,000 DWT</td>
<td>BHF</td>
<td>Russia/Baltic</td>
<td>India</td>
<td>25/26 June</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Cargill</td>
<td>28,000 / 39,000 DWT</td>
<td>BHF</td>
<td>Sluiskil</td>
<td>Atlantic</td>
<td>19/23 June</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Iberpotash S.A</td>
<td>10,000 MT</td>
<td>BHF</td>
<td>Barcelona</td>
<td>Amsterdam & Teesport</td>
<td>18/19 June</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>IMC Shipping Co Pte Ltd</td>
<td>28,000 / 35,000 DWT</td>
<td>BHF</td>
<td>CJK</td>
<td>East Coast India</td>
<td>15/20 June</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Licvem</td>
<td>15,000 / 25,000 DWT</td>
<td>AN</td>
<td>Black Sea</td>
<td>Walvis Bay / Durban Range</td>
<td>20/30 June</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Salaata</td>
<td>25,000 MT</td>
<td>Urea</td>
<td>Yanbu</td>
<td>Chittagong and/or Mongla</td>
<td>21/25 June</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Salaata</td>
<td>25,000 MT</td>
<td>Urea</td>
<td>Yanbu</td>
<td>Chittagong and/or Mongla</td>
<td>26/30 June</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Silk Road Shipping</td>
<td>50,000 / 58,000 DWT</td>
<td>BHF</td>
<td>Delivery: Red Sea</td>
<td>Redelivery: India</td>
<td>20/30 June</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Silk Road Shipping</td>
<td>25,000 / 30,000 MT</td>
<td>Rock</td>
<td>Aqaba</td>
<td>Constantza</td>
<td>15/20 June</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Petro Jordan</td>
<td>200,000 MT (in 40k/47k LOTS)</td>
<td>Rock</td>
<td>Aqaba</td>
<td>Gresik</td>
<td>12/17 July, 1/6 Aug, 17/22 Aug, 4/9 Sept, 21/26 Sept</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MISC</td>
<td>50,000 MT</td>
<td>Sulphur</td>
<td>Umm Qasr</td>
<td>Paranagua</td>
<td>10/20 June</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MISC</td>
<td>40,000 MT</td>
<td>BHF</td>
<td>Russian Black Sea</td>
<td>Chittagong & Mongla</td>
<td>25/30 June</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MISC</td>
<td>30,000 / 38,500 MT</td>
<td>Rock</td>
<td>Dakar</td>
<td>Hazira or Dahej</td>
<td>20/30 June</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MISC</td>
<td>28,000 / 38,500 MT</td>
<td>Rock</td>
<td>Dakar</td>
<td>Hazira or Dahej</td>
<td>16/26 June</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MISC</td>
<td>26,000 / 38,000 MT</td>
<td>Sulphur</td>
<td>Zubair</td>
<td>Fangcheng</td>
<td>10/20 June</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MISC</td>
<td>25,000 / 30,000 MT</td>
<td>Rock</td>
<td>Hamrawein</td>
<td>Hazira</td>
<td>1/30 June</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MISC</td>
<td>18,000 MT</td>
<td>Urea</td>
<td>Marsa El Brega</td>
<td>Castellon or Szczecin</td>
<td>15/30 June</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MISC</td>
<td>12,500 / 19,750 MT</td>
<td>Sulphur</td>
<td>Umm Qasr</td>
<td>Mersin</td>
<td>15/30 June</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MISC</td>
<td>8,800 MT</td>
<td>BHF</td>
<td>Taizhou</td>
<td>Port Klang</td>
<td>10/20 June</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MISC</td>
<td>7,000 / 12,000 MT</td>
<td>BHF</td>
<td>1 North China</td>
<td>Chorno or Odessa</td>
<td>10/20 June</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MISC</td>
<td>6,600 MT</td>
<td>BHF</td>
<td>Xiuyu</td>
<td>Kosichang</td>
<td>10/20 June</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MISC</td>
<td>6,300 MT</td>
<td>BHF</td>
<td>Varna</td>
<td>Chernomorsk</td>
<td>18/20 June</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MISC</td>
<td>5,000 MT</td>
<td>Rock</td>
<td>Damietta</td>
<td>Barletta</td>
<td>15/25 June</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

</div>

2026-06-10 by Phil Sunderland

India NFL result:

INDIA: NFL UREA IMPORT TENDER – 08 JUNE – TECHNO-COMMERCIAL/PRICE OFFERS – SHIPMENT BY 20 JULY

EAST COAST INDIA
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>L1-23</th>
<th>Bidder</th>
<th>USD/t CFR</th>
<th>'000t</th>
<th>Cumulative Total '000t</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>L1</td>
<td>Aditya Birla (ABGT)</td>
<td>444.90</td>
<td>500.0</td>
<td>500.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L2</td>
<td>Ameropa Asia</td>
<td>448.00</td>
<td>185.0</td>
<td>685.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L3</td>
<td>Midgulf International (MGI)</td>
<td>454.51</td>
<td>500.0</td>
<td>1,185.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L4</td>
<td>MacroSource</td>
<td>458.00</td>
<td>135.0</td>
<td>1,320.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L5</td>
<td>Sun International</td>
<td>459.50</td>
<td>100.0</td>
<td>1,420.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L6</td>
<td>Samsung</td>
<td>459.50</td>
<td>100.0</td>
<td>1,520.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L7</td>
<td>Agrifields</td>
<td>460.00</td>
<td>90.0</td>
<td>1,610.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L8</td>
<td>Alkagesta</td>
<td>460.95</td>
<td>45.0</td>
<td>1,655.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L9</td>
<td>Koch</td>
<td>468.96</td>
<td>150.0</td>
<td>1,805.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L10</td>
<td>Hexagon</td>
<td>469.19</td>
<td>50.0</td>
<td>1,855.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L11</td>
<td>Continental</td>
<td>473.11</td>
<td>50.0</td>
<td>1,905.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L12</td>
<td>Aramco Trading</td>
<td>474.50</td>
<td>100.0</td>
<td>2,005.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L13</td>
<td>OQ Trading</td>
<td>475.00</td>
<td>50.0</td>
<td>2,055.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L14</td>
<td>Agricommodities (ETG)</td>
<td>480.89</td>
<td>200.0</td>
<td>2,255.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L15</td>
<td>Chasemax International</td>
<td>484.88</td>
<td>100.0</td>
<td>2,355.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L16</td>
<td>Indagro</td>
<td>486.00</td>
<td>81.5</td>
<td>2,436.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L17</td>
<td>Fertiglobe Distribution</td>
<td>489.00</td>
<td>50.0</td>
<td>2,486.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L18</td>
<td>Indorama</td>
<td>490.00</td>
<td>45.0</td>
<td>2,531.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L19</td>
<td>Dreymoor</td>
<td>493.00</td>
<td>100.0</td>
<td>2,631.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L20</td>
<td>Keytrade</td>
<td>530.00</td>
<td>100.0</td>
<td>2,731.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L21</td>
<td>Wilson International</td>
<td>558.45</td>
<td>50.0</td>
<td>2,781.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L22</td>
<td>Comet Trading</td>
<td>560.00</td>
<td>50.0</td>
<td>2,831.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L23</td>
<td>Saftco</td>
<td>617.00</td>
<td>50.0</td>
<td>2,881.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td>Agro Fert International</td>
<td>Disqualified</td>
<td>26.0</td>
<td>2,907.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td>Millenium Commodity</td>
<td>Disqualified</td>
<td>45.0</td>
<td>2,952.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td>Torbert</td>
<td>Disqualified</td>
<td>50.0</td>
<td>3,002.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td>FertiStream</td>
<td>Disqualified</td>
<td>50.0</td>
<td>3,052.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td>Fergrow</td>
<td>Disqualified</td>
<td>60.0</td>
<td>3,112.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td>Oasis Global</td>
<td>Disqualified</td>
<td>50.0</td>
<td>3,162.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td>Ferticom</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td>Nitron</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td>Sabic</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td>Trammo</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Total (ECI)</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>3,162.50</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Importer target</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>800.00</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Total offered (ECI + WCI)</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>6,250.50</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

<hr />

WEST COAST INDIA
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>L1-25</th>
<th>Bidder</th>
<th>USD/t CFR</th>
<th>'000t</th>
<th>Cumulative Total '000t</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>L1</td>
<td>Ameropa Asia</td>
<td>449.30</td>
<td>234.0</td>
<td>234.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L2</td>
<td>Midgulf International (MGI)</td>
<td>451.55</td>
<td>500.0</td>
<td>734.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L3</td>
<td>Aditya Birla (ABGT)</td>
<td>458.40</td>
<td>600.0</td>
<td>1,334.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L4</td>
<td>MacroSource</td>
<td>461.00</td>
<td>90.0</td>
<td>1,424.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L5</td>
<td>Sun International</td>
<td>463.60</td>
<td>100.0</td>
<td>1,524.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L6</td>
<td>Samsung</td>
<td>463.60</td>
<td>99.0</td>
<td>1,623.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L7</td>
<td>Alkagesta</td>
<td>464.95</td>
<td>45.0</td>
<td>1,668.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L8</td>
<td>Agricommodities (ETG)</td>
<td>470.00</td>
<td>200.0</td>
<td>1,868.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L9</td>
<td>Koch</td>
<td>471.87</td>
<td>95.0</td>
<td>1,963.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L10</td>
<td>Continental</td>
<td>475.11</td>
<td>50.0</td>
<td>2,013.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L11</td>
<td>Aramco Trading</td>
<td>476.50</td>
<td>100.0</td>
<td>2,113.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L12</td>
<td>Hexagon</td>
<td>479.19</td>
<td>50.0</td>
<td>2,163.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L13</td>
<td>Fertiglobe Distribution</td>
<td>484.00</td>
<td>50.0</td>
<td>2,213.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L14</td>
<td>Chasemax International</td>
<td>484.88</td>
<td>50.0</td>
<td>2,263.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L15</td>
<td>Ferticom</td>
<td>484.99</td>
<td>50.0</td>
<td>2,313.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L16</td>
<td>OQ Trading</td>
<td>487.00</td>
<td>50.0</td>
<td>2,363.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L17</td>
<td>Indagro</td>
<td>489.00</td>
<td>92.0</td>
<td>2,455.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L18</td>
<td>Dreymoor</td>
<td>489.99</td>
<td>108.0</td>
<td>2,563.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L19</td>
<td>Indorama</td>
<td>490.00</td>
<td>45.0</td>
<td>2,608.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L20</td>
<td>Comet Trading</td>
<td>499.00</td>
<td>45.0</td>
<td>2,653.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L21</td>
<td>Keytrade</td>
<td>530.00</td>
<td>90.0</td>
<td>2,743.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L22</td>
<td>Nitron</td>
<td>555.00</td>
<td>45.0</td>
<td>2,788.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L23</td>
<td>Trammo</td>
<td>568.37</td>
<td>45.0</td>
<td>2,833.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L24</td>
<td>Sabic</td>
<td>570.00</td>
<td>45.0</td>
<td>2,878.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L25</td>
<td>Saftco</td>
<td>605.00</td>
<td>50.0</td>
<td>2,928.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td>FertiStream</td>
<td>Disqualified</td>
<td>50.0</td>
<td>2,978.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td>Fergrow</td>
<td>Disqualified</td>
<td>60.0</td>
<td>3,038.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td>Oasis Global</td>
<td>Disqualified</td>
<td>50.0</td>
<td>3,088.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td>Wilson International</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td>Agro Fert International</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td>Millenium Commodity</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td>Agrifields</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td>Torbert</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Total (WCI)</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>3,088.00</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Importer target</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>900.00</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Total required (ECI + WCI)</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>1,700.00</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

2026-06-10 by Phil Sunderland

China domestic urea firmed week on week, with prills at RMB 1,800-1,820 exw and granulars at RMB 1,900-1,920 exw, lifted by export optimism. On Saturday, CNFIA removed the floor price and monthly quantity cap for June shipment, prompting factories to sell quickly before suspending offers. Production remains high at around 213.8 kt/day with stocks near 959.4 kt, leaving the domestic market under pressure in the seasonal slow period. Whether export demand can absorb the surplus depends on whether CNFIA's floor price guidance holds.

On exports, the brief removal of the floor price on Saturday immediately weighed on sentiment, with the India tender due to open Monday adding further uncertainty. Rumours placed L1 at USD 412-417 cfr before CNFIA reversed course on Monday, reinstating the floor at USD 500 fob for prills and USD 510 fob for granulars. The market turned volatile. Indications have since realigned with the new floor, but buyer interest has retreated to the mid-USD 400s fob or below. Attention now turns to Indian tender volume, how much tonnage can clear CIQ inspection ahead of the 20 July shipment deadline, and whether sustained global price weakness eventually forces China values lower regardless of administrative guidance.

2026-06-10 by Phil Sunderland

**Urea Update**

In China suppliers are heard lobbying the NRDC to allow exports at USD 415 FOB, most believe these levesl will be allowed considering the domestic market is presenylt paying USD 300 FOOB equivalent

It is believed that Russia will make 500-600kt available

No news on whether mts from USA will be made available

2026-06-10 by Phil Sunderland

Egypt, MOPCO sold 15,000 tonnes of granular urea at USD 520 FOB equivalent to the domestic market.

2026-06-10 by Phil Sunderland

**India Urea Latest**

Heard NFL has rejected 6 offers: Agrofert – Fergrow – Fertistream – Millenium – Oasis – Torbert

2026-06-10 by Phil Sunderland

latest on NFL tender

2026-06-10 by Phil Sunderland

When Everyone Bets the Same Way: India's Tender and the Short-China Trade
India's latest urea tender has attracted offers of around 6 million MT. To understand why that number matters, you need to understand what a normal tender looks like. In a balanced market, a typical Indian procurement round draws somewhere in the region of 3 million MT of offers. Double that volume arriving in a single tender is not a sign of healthy competition. It is a sign that the market is carrying far too much exposure on one side of the same trade.
To understand how that position was built, you need to go back a few months. China is the world's largest urea producer and its single biggest wildcard. When Chinese exporters are active, they can flood seaborne markets with low-cost material and drive prices sharply lower. That risk is well understood by traders, and when sentiment turns negative on China, the rational response is to sell forward, or go short, anticipating that Chinese supply will depress prices and allow those short positions to be covered cheaply later. At some point in the recent cycle, the consensus trade became: short China.
The problem with consensus trades is that when everyone is positioned the same way, the unwind can be brutal. Every trader who had gone short on the expectation of cheap Chinese tonnes needed to find physical material to cover that position. India's tender window offered the obvious solution. Traders arrived in volume, and the offer book swelled to around 6 million MT as a result.
Here is where the thesis breaks down. India cleared the tender at a price that suited India very well. Indian state buyers are experienced, patient, and operate with the full knowledge that an oversubscribed offer book gives them negotiating leverage. The price they accepted was low enough to satisfy their procurement mandate. But it was too low to satisfy Chinese producers. China's cost base, particularly for coal-fed plants, sits at around USD 250 per MT FOB as a rough floor, and with their suppressed local market, the export market is the only time they can make meaningful sums of money – and they clearly missed the boat (forgive the pun) they had the opportunity to sell a few weeks earlier at significantly higher levels. China should have kept quiet and waited until after the tender to announce a price drop!
That leaves the traders who went short in a difficult position. They sold expecting to cover with cheap Chinese physical. The Chinese physical is not coming at these levels. They must now source material from other origins, at prices that may not reflect the levels at which they sold forward. The 6 million MT of offers at this tender was in large part the footprint of that scramble, every short-position holder arriving simultaneously at the same demand event trying to solve the same problem.
The consequences extend beyond the individual positions. Any seller who does not secure a confirmed cargo walks away still holding inventory, with carrying costs accumulating and fewer demand windows ahead. If the number of confirmed cargoes is very small, perhaps only one or two, a retender becomes likely. That is not a neutral outcome. A retender signals that India's volume requirements were not met, resets the clock, and gives no relief to sellers who are already long physical. It typically results in prices being tested lower still before the next round clears.
It would be fun if India made everyone supply at the prices bid in, and not to price match @ L1 !

2026-06-10 by Phil Sunderland

**FALCON PAPER VALUES/FOWARD CURVE**

The swift reinstatement of China export price floors, and absence of official news form NFL tender, brought uncertainty and caution to Urea mkts y'day, with trading activity largely on hold after price drop at start of week. Int'l paper saw July Brazil trade low-$450s, while Nola bids moved ~$25 up from prior day's close.

*AG*
Jun $455//$500
Jul $440//$495

*Cfr Brazil*
Jun $450//$500
Jul $445//$470 – traded $453.50
Aug $430//$490
Sep $430//$490

*Egypt*
Jun $540//$600
Jul $460//$550

*cfr Brazil AS*
Jun $230//$250
Jul $230//$250
Aug $235//$255

*FOB China (Compacted) AS*
Jun-Jul $225//$245

*Nola Urea*
Phys: Loaded traded $410
Paper:
Jun $400//$430
Jul $385//$405
Aug $395//$410
Sep $395//$410
Oct $395//$415
Q3 $395//$410
Q4 $410//$420
Q1 $415//$425

*DAP Nola*
Jun $765//$790
Jul $775//$785
Aug $775//$790
Sep $775//$790

*MAP Brazil*
Aug $905//$930
Sep $890//$910

2026-06-10 by Phil Sunderland

**China Morning Brief**

Urea: New domestic contract volumes eased over the past session, though short-term sales pressure remains manageable. Export activity continues to see intermittent disruption. The domestic market is expected to remain broadly stagnant near term, with only minor localised price fluctuations anticipated.

Synthetic ammonia: Main production regions saw a tentative low-level price recovery yesterday, with negotiating sentiment improving marginally. Downstream operating rates were little changed, however, and the sharp rise in sulphur prices has dampened expectations for phosphate fertiliser production, leaving demand subdued. Rising coal costs have prompted some producers to curtail output in defence of margins. Prices are likely to hold or fluctuate narrowly in the short term.

Ammonium chloride: Trading was thin yesterday. Fertiliser producers are carrying elevated inventories and struggling to lift operating rates. Enquiry levels were weak, order collection remained difficult, and fresh contract lows were recorded. Near-term demand shows no sign of recovery and the negotiating focus is expected to drift lower.

Ammonium sulphate: Minor price movement was seen yesterday. Frequent adjustments to urea export policy have injected renewed caution into domestic trade. The industrial-grade segment has stabilised, while coke-grade auction prices remain constrained in both directions. The market is expected to remain cautious and largely stable in the near term.

MAP: The domestic market held steady yesterday. In Hubei, 55% powder was trading at CNY 4,200-4,400/tonne on a negotiated basis. Compound fertiliser blenders purchased on a need-only basis, resisting higher offers, while traders retained confidence and continued seeking price indications. With raw material costs remaining elevated and downstream demand for staple grades providing support, stability is expected to persist near term.

DAP: The domestic market traded quietly yesterday. Continued rises in raw material costs are squeezing margins, but demand is limited and new orders are scarce, leaving overall trading activity subdued. A cautious wait-and-see posture prevails and the market is likely to remain in consolidation.

Potash: The domestic market extended its recent soft trend, with prices holding relatively stable for now. New contract activity has been modest, with actual transaction prices subject to negotiation below list. Mannheim potassium sulphate (52% powder) ex-works is indicated at CNY 4,150-4,350/tonne, with a north-south regional spread evident.

Compound fertilisers: The domestic market continued to trade within a narrow range yesterday. Raw material volatility is keeping compound fertiliser input costs unstable. With summer fertiliser production drawing to a close, market attention is shifting towards autumn demand planning. Significant swings in sulphur and phosphate input prices are encouraging cautious producer pricing and a broader wait-and-see stance. Consolidation is expected to continue.

2026-06-10 by Phil Sunderland

**India Update**

Allegedly more than 6M Mts offered into the tender and also, there are 13 new bidders whose documents need to be verified, is the reason given for time delay.

2026-06-09 by Phil Sunderland

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