Latest gossip in India
ECI
Torbert 412 CFR
ABGT 417 CFR
Eurochem low 440s
Ameropa likely L4
WCI
Millenium 418 CFR
ABGT 422 CFR
Eurochem 440s
**China**
On June 9, the daily production of the urea industry was 218,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous working day; compared to the same period last year, it increased by 15,300 tons. The current operating rate is 91.35%, up 3.20% from 88.15% last year.
Morning. Removal of Chinese export price floors unsurprisingly saw Urea values take a huge step down y'day (June Nola phys down to $360), with price discovery in NFL tender yet to come…….but with news overnight of a reinstatement of floors ($500prill, $510 gran), now looking to refresh bids//offer – mkts framed:
*AG*
Jun $460//$505
Jul $430//$480 – traded $450
*Cfr Brazil*
Jun $460//$500
Jul $435//$490
Aug $430//$490
Sep-Oct $420//$485
*Egypt*
Jun $540//$600
Jul $470//$565
*cfr Brazil AS*
Jun $230//$250
Jul $225//$250
Aug $230//$260
*FOB China (Compacted) AS*
Jun-Jul $225//$245
*Nola Urea*
Phys: Prompt/June traded $412-$360-$380
Paper:
Jun $400//$430
Jul $375//$395 – traded $394
(Jun//Jul spread traded $35)
Aug $372//$390 – traded $380
Sep $370//$390 – traded $394, $380
Oct $370//$390 – traded $390
Q3 $365//$390 – traded $385
Q4 $370//$395 – Nov traded $400, $390 (500st)
Q1 $385//$405 – traded $400 (500st)
*DAP Nola*
Jun $765//$790
Jul $775//$785
Aug $775//$790
Sep $775//$790
*MAP Brazil*
Aug $905//$930
Sep $890//$910
General chatter/consensus suggests NFL L1 is:
WCI: $418 cfr
ECI: $412 cfr
However, *not confirmed* as prices yet to be opened (and volumes)
France has backed a proposal to tighten cadmium limits in phosphate fertilisers to 40 mg per kg of P2O5 by 2027 and 20 mg by 2030, with the stated aim of reducing heavy metal accumulation in agricultural soils. The regulation, if adopted more broadly, could make the chemical composition of phosphate raw materials a meaningful competitive differentiator alongside nutrient content and price. Producers able to supply low-cadmium DAP, MAP, TSP, and phosphoric acid may find themselves at an advantage in European and similarly regulated markets, while feedstock sourcing decisions across the industry could shift accordingly.
**China Morning Brief**
Nitrogen
Domestic urea plant quotations continue to trend higher, supported by a firm futures session, with producers maintaining price confidence. The June 8 Indian tender result is still awaited; market expectations point to a landed price in the mid-to-high USD 400/t range, a potential discount of USD 500/t or more against the April IPL tender at USD 935-959/t CFR. The weaker-than-expected India pricing has already dragged Egyptian and Middle East FOB levels below USD 500/t. Ammonium chloride remains under steady downward pressure domestically, with some producers offering customised pricing to shift volume; autumn fertiliser demand has not yet emerged. Ammonium sulphate is cautious and flat; export quota removal news has dampened downstream appetite.
Phosphates
Domestic MAP demand remains firm. Supply-designated enterprises are holding to pricing guidelines while traders have edged prices higher; elevated sulphur costs continue to press production costs upward. New contract activity is measured, with producers prioritising prior commitments. DAP is effectively stalled domestically. Producers are holding prices ahead of shipment and looking for orders; downstream demand is soft, transaction resistance on new business is evident, and the trading atmosphere is subdued.
Potash
Domestic SOP is in consolidation. Mannheim production costs remain under pressure, operating rates are low, and prices are broadly unchanged. Downstream buying is limited to essential restocking. MOP has dipped modestly; plant operating rates are low, demand is thin, and small traders are discounting to generate orders.
Compound Fertilisers
The domestic compound fertiliser market is holding steady. Raw material costs remain elevated, limiting price movement. As the summer fertiliser season winds down, residual replenishment orders are being negotiated selectively. Wheat harvest progress is beginning to generate incremental restocking demand from distributors, though caution remains the dominant posture.
Rumours in India have L1 being usd 412 CFR for the NFL urea tender. Millenium and Torbert have both been mentioned
**China Update**
FROM CHINESE UREA PRODUCERS. After careful consideration: Given that some traders are exploiting the Indian tender to engage in short selling, effective immediately, the export price for small-granule urea to India shall not be lower than $500 per ton FOB, and the price for large-granule urea and automotive urea shall not be lower than $510 per ton FOB. Failure to comply will result in automatic revocation of the company’s status as a self-regulatory enterprise.
**INDIA LATEST**
Volumes and Price Bids likely to be opened later in the week.
The grapevine in India is expecting low numbers for L1, lowest heard so far is below USD 450 cfr
Most are aligning around USD 442 CFR, this puts FOB netbacks to AG " USD 420 FOB, China around USD 410-415 FOB
What does this mean for the rest of the world, implies Brazil CFR will drop to a USD 450 CFR, which in turn knocks Iran down to sub USD 400 FOB
News is starting to filter out of India now:
1 Ameropa Asia
2 Midgulf International
3 Dreymoor
4 Sun International
5 Wilson International
6 Continental Traders
7 Ferticom LLC FZ
8 Chasemax International
9 Agro Fert International
10 Alkagesta
11 Aditya Birla Global Trading
12 Millenium Commodity
13 Agrifields
14 Nitron Group
15 Torbert
16 Indagro
17 Fertistream
18 Aramco Trading
19 Indorama
20 Sabic
21 Comet Trading
22 Fergrow Pte Ltd
23 Fertiglobe Distribution
24 Trammo
25 Oasis Global
26 Agricommodities
27 Samsung
28 Keytrade
29 Saftco SA
30 OQ Trading
31 Hexagon Ferts
32 Macrosource
33 Koch Fertlizers
More to follow – keep an eye out for volumes.
<a href="https://www.staging.aquifert.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/aquifert-soi-report-v3.pdf">aquifert soi report v3 – Click Link</a>
Latest report on El-Nino for beginners
L1 predictions from around the globe:
Optimistic: USD 530-540 cfr
Pessimistic: 470-480 cfr
One PRA suggested: USD 550's CFR
**China Morning Review**
Domestic urea edged lower last week. Wheat harvest got under way across northern regions, pulling agricultural demand off the boil, while industrial buyers covered only immediate requirements. Sales were sluggish across the board. Export-related meetings added a layer of caution to market sentiment, with most participants holding back to see the outcome of the Indian tender. With no near-term catalyst for a demand recovery, the soft tone looks set to persist.
Synthetic ammonia weakened further. Plants that had been offline for maintenance returned to service, but downstream margins remained thin or negative, curbing offtake. Output fell and the supply-demand balance deteriorated, pushing prices to fresh lows in several regions. The outlook stays negative in the absence of any demand improvement.
Ammonium sulphate was volatile. Coking-sector production stabilised and then edged up, and buyer enquiries picked up. But continued weakness in international urea dragged on sentiment, and policy uncertainty left the short-term outlook cautious.
Ammonium chloride drifted lower. Producers struggled to convert enquiries into orders and stocks at some plants built up. Compound fertiliser sales downstream improved modestly on earlier levels, but inventory throughout the chain remains elevated and appetite for ammonium chloride purchases is limited. No near-term demand recovery is expected.
Phosphate markets were mixed. DAP and TSP contract activity was thin, with downstream factories buying cautiously and potash traders keen to sell. Most deals required negotiation to conclude. Phosphate-sulphuric acid producers held their prices but cut operating rates. MAP in Hubei traded at CNY 4,200-4,300/t for 55% powder on a negotiated basis. Sulphur costs continued to climb, feeding through to sulphuric acid and compressing MAP plant margins. With cost pressure rising and output falling, MAP prices are showing tentative upside. DAP remained in wait-and-see mode, with raw material costs elevated, sentiment cautious, and actual transaction volumes thin.
Compound fertilisers were steady. The tail end of summer production saw companies focused on shifting inventory rather than booking new business, but trading has stabilised. Firm upstream raw material prices are underpinning compound fertiliser costs, and the market looks likely to hold a narrow range in the near term.
**Falcon Paper/Forward Curve**
Urea paper values slipping again last week, but the removal of price floors for Chinese exports likely to bring further pressure, and all before NFL tender close today. Looking to refresh bid//offer levels after recent news – mkts framed end of week:
*AG*
Jun $515//$535
Jul $495//$525
_[Jul traded $535 last week]_
*Cfr Brazil*
Jun $505//$540
Jul $495//$510 -traded $500 Fri
_[Jul traded $531-$500 l/w]_
Aug $480//$495
Sep $475//$495 – traded $490 Fri (1.5k)
Oct $475//$495 – traded $490 Fri (1.5k)
*Egypt*
Jun $550//$610
Jul $500//$575
Aug-Sep $580 Offer
*cfr Brazil AS*
Jun $240//$260
Jul $235//$258
Aug $240//$260
*FOB China (Compacted) AS*
Jun-Jul $225//$245
*Nola Urea*
Paper:
Jun $405//$435
Jul $415//$423 – traded $422 Fri
_[Jul traded $465-$411 l/w]_
Aug $405//$415 – traded $420 Fri, $413 Sat
_[Aug traded $440-$413 l/w]_
Sep $400//$415
_[Sep traded $465-$415 l/w]_
Oct $405//$420
Q3 $400//$415 – traded $427 (500st), $420 (500st) Fri
_[Q3 traded $470-$420 l/w]_
Q4 $400//$420 – traded $424 Fri
_[Q4 traded $450-$410 l/w]_
Q1 $415//$435
Option: Q3 $400 P traded $10 Fri
*DAP Nola*
Jun $765//$790
Jul $780//$790
Aug $780//$795
Sep $780//$795
*MAP Brazil*
Aug $905//$930
Sep $890//$910