China's fertilizer export data
According to statistics from China's customs, in June 2025, China exported a total of 4.29 million tons of various fertilizers; of these, 70,000 tons were urea, 1.86 million tons were ammonium sulfate, 510,000 tons were diammonium phosphate, and 170,000 tons was monoammonium phosphate.
In the period from January to June 2025, China exported a total of 17.13 million tons of various fertilizers, registering a year-on-year increase of 35.9%; the total export value reached US$4.069 billion, registering a year-on- year increase of 25.9%. Among them, the cumulative export of urea was 80,000 tons, registering a year-on- year decrease of 44.2%; the cumulative export of ammonium sulfate was 8.83 million tons, registering a year-on -year increase of 35.1%; the cumulative export of diammonium phosphate was 600,000 tons, registered a year-on-year decrease of 60.4%; the cumulative export of monoammonium phosphate was 260,000 tons, recording a year-on-year decrease 72.5%.
In terms of nutrient content, China's cumulative exports of urea, ammonium sulfate, and ammonium phosphate from January to June totaled 2.431 million tons in terms of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium.
-THE UREA MARKET WILL NEED ANOTHER TENDER IN INDIA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS TO SUSTAIN CURRENT PRICES
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES APPEARS TO HAVE THE SKY AS THE LIMIT WITH PRICES GOING UP EVERYWHERE BUT WITH BRAZIL NOW SHOWING RELUCTANCE DUE TO AFFORDABILITY ISSUES AND POOR CREDIT FOR FARMERS
-LOTS OF POTASH CONTRACTS CONCLUDED WITH INDIA AND CHINA THIS WEEK BUT PRICES HAVE STALLED INTERNATIONALLY
-AMMONIA PRICES ARE BULLISH
UREA
The international urea market is coming to terms with the most recent RCF India urea tender which closed on July 7th. With two extensions on validity, it now appears that the volume will be close to 1.5 mill MT but still short of the desired 2 million MT. Prices were USD 495/496 CFR east coast and west coast India, respectively. The overwhelming quantity will be supplied by Russian and Middle East sourcing with possibly 3 cargoes from Indonesia.
The pricing fallout from this tender was quick with prices rising above USD 500 PMT FOB at most origins but with the news that China would increase the quota by around 1.5 million MT for supply over the next 45 days tempered price rises. Of this quantity 800 KT is said to be from higher production gas cost urea and around 500-800 KT coal-based urea. These volumes come on top of the previously announced 2 million MT. Floor price of prilled urea is set at USD 440 PMT FOB and for granular urea at USD 460 PMT FOB.
Producers in the Middle East are busy fulfilling tender sales to India and the derivatives market for Jul $460//$485, Aug $465//$480, Sep $450//$475, Q4 $390//$430.
In most relevant trading Dangote of Nigeria concluded two cargoes with one at USD 465 PMT FOB for first week of August shipment and the other at USD 480 PMT for the second week of August shipment. These must be long positions in the hope that Brazilian buying will start in earnest. Today the CFR Brazil numbers are around the USD 475-480 PMT mark. However, Brazil buys significant quantities of urea from Iran and producer Pardis sold at USD 435 PMT FOB and Lordegan at USD 431.50 PMT FOB earlier in the week followed by Kermanshah Petrochemical Industries Company (KPIC) selling 30,000 t granular urea at $435/t FOB. The floor price of urea ex Iran is set at USD 430 PMT FOB. Iran has become a major producer of urea with annual capacity of 8.6 million MT and exports reaching more than 5 million MT. Over the past 4 months despite the war with Israel production of urea has been 2.3 million MT with exports reaching 1.2 million MT and domestic consumption at 600 KT.
In Argentina up to 25,000t of granular urea is reported to have been sold by several suppliers at $510pt cfr for July and August shipment.
Ethiopia has emerged as a large importer of both DAP and urea this year. The most recent tender for 2×52,000 MT of urea resulted in offers with Chinese urea at USD 467.19 PMT FOB and USD 458 PMT FOB, both for August shipment.
SE Asian demand for urea appears to have been hampered by affordability. In particular, the Philippines is suffering from low import prices of rice from both Thailand and Vietnam at numbers which make it difficult for locally priced rice with the result of farmers in the Philippines reducing planting. This obviously has a massive impact on imports of urea to the Philippines and the real test will be to see import activity for the upcoming 4th quarter season.
Exports of urea from Egypt January – April this year resulted in 1.39 million MT vs 1.47 million MT Y/Y with almost all of the cargoes ending up in Europe with focus on Turkey, Italy and Spain and with a total of two cargoes ending up in the USA and Canada, respectively. Egypt enjoys zero import tax to the European Union.
The outlook for the urea price now hinges on Brazil imports and the possibility of another urea tender in India. Markets in Europe and the USA are out of season – and spot demand from both Australia and Thailand appears to have vanished.
PHOSPHATES
Phosphate prices keep on rising with limited availability coming out of China and massive import activity in Ethiopia. In Bangladesh, the government is expected to announce its major private-sector tender for DAP/TSP by 18 July. Key sources indicate the tender will close on 28 July and be for 400,000t DAP, 250,000t TSP and 200,000t MOP.
If confirmed, the volumes for DAP are down on last year’s 600,000t DAP tender, likely due to increased G2G deals with suppliers in 2025. A number of Chinese suppliers are reportedly targeting the tender for shipments August through October. Chinese DAP floor price is set at USD 680 PMT FOB but the current FOB asking price is 760-770 PMT, up USD 12-15 from last done, but with limited availability from the current export quota.
DAP prices for India increased again on 11-12 July as NFL finalised a 50,000t DAP deal with a trader at $814pt cfr for east coast shipment by late July, up from previous prices at $804-810pt cfr. The trader is understood to be sourcing the DAP from Morocco.
Extended validity reportedly ended on the offer to India’s HURL for 50,000t DAP at roughly $815pt cfr on 15 July, without any agreement. The offer was originally made by a trader to the buyer on 7 July.
Saudi Arabian phosphate producer Ma’aden announced a massive DAP export deal with India this week agreeing to supply on formula pricing 3.1 million MT annually over the next five years with an option to increase with another five years. In addition, OCP of Morocco increased their current agreement for the supply of DAP with an additional 300 KT for a total of 1.2 million MT and TSP with another 200 KT for a total of 800 KT. India buyers are now clearly diversifying their buying of DAP to others from irregular supplies from China due to export restrictions imposed by the Chinese government.
Demand for DAP in Pakistan is suffering from a massive price discrepancy of imported prices vs domestic prices which now stand at a negative USD 90 PMT. Offers are at USD 810-820 PMT CFR but with zero traction.
Echoing write ups from the past 6 months, Argentine MAP price offers are now at USD 810-820 PMT CFR up from the latest concluded business of USD 800-805 PMT CFR. MAP price in Argentina now carries a premium to the Brazil CFR price of between USD 45-50 PMT. Some MAP suppliers to Brazil suggest that they are not actively selling to the market following a stabilisation in prices seen over the past couple of weeks. Spot/bulk MAP sales have yet to be reported above $755pt cfr, with participants reporting that it is not currently possible to achieve higher prices. Offers at $760-765pt cfr have no takers. Demand in the market has slowed significantly on the back of highly unfavourable affordability. Distributors are concentrating on delivering MAP inland while buyers are focused on nitrogen procurement.
Global phosphate prices, led by the Indian benchmark, are set to rise further in the coming months, but at a slower pace, driven by strong competition and built-up import demand outpacing global supply.
POTASH
This week saw a flurry of supply contract conclusions from various parties to China, all at the same price of USD 346 PMT CFR. BPC, Uralkali and ICL all agreed to supply with APC of Jordan expected to follow. The BPC contract stipulates supply of between 1.8-2 million MT for a total 2025 supply of around 3 million MT.
Canadian Canpotex said it signed a contract to supply standard MOP to customers in India at $349/t CFR through the end of 2025, making it the fourth producer to settle with India at this level.
Canpotex is understood to have signed with Coromandel International Ltd (CIL), although this was not confirmed by the producer.
Belarusian Potash Company (BPC) was the first supplier to agree to a contract at $349/t CFR on 4 June with Indian Potash Limited (IPL), marking a $65/t increase over the previous 180-day contract. Food Security Solutions DMCC (FSS), the trading arm of Russia’s Uralkali, followed with a settlement on 5 June, while Arab Potash Company (APC) and Israeli Chemicals Ltd. (ICL) finalised agreements on 15 and 25 June, respectively.
When negotiations for the 2025 contract began, Canpotex was said to have been seeking a higher price, which temporarily stalled discussions. As other producers agreed at $349/t CFR, negotiations for a higher price became increasingly challenging. Beggars cannot choose – relative power kicks in!
Outlook for potash prices are bearish with the only exception of SE Asia all subject to the outcome of the Indonesia potash tender.
AMMONIA
Ammonia prices on both sides of the Suez registered gains this week as latest spot deals and notional assessments jumped on perceived market tightness and the emergence of import appetite in some quarters.
East of Suez, supply tightness in the Middle East could soon ease slightly on news that an almost two-month-long curtailment at Ma’aden’s 1.1 Mt/year No.1 will soon conclude, with the producer aiming to resume normal output within a matter of days. Further supporting a healthier supply outlook, Ma’aden said that it again intends to export 175,000 t in August, with around 50,000 t of that total bound for India, into where Ma’aden also sold a 6,000-7,000 MT part-cargo this week at $370/t CFR – reportedly to PPL. That figure represents a $10/t increase on prior high-end indications for India though, given the part-cargo will be shipped on the same vessel as one of Ma’aden’s regular contract deliveries, netbacks to the Middle East on the sale are thought to be lower than the $345/t FOB cited by the producer itself.
Prices should at the very least remain stable but generally positioned to the upside, with most markets seemingly supported on tightened supply and moderate-to-healthy demand.
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Council Member World Agriculture Forum
Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Brief 2025-7-18*
❤ Sulfur: Yesterday, the domestic port spot market continued to decline, with price range reference of 2,355-2,365 yuan/ton, and mainstream reference price dropping 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. A domestic refinery’s sales tender results fell 36 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. Affected by this, merchants who were already cautious chose to wait and see further, while interested buyers took the opportunity to press prices down, causing the overall market to probe further downward. Regarding USD resources, it was heard that the transaction price of granular sulfur in China’s Yangtze River region was around CFR $285/ton. Overall, market sentiment is generally volatile and weak. With no news guidance in the market, today’s spot market is expected to show a weak operating trend.
❤ Urea: Yesterday, the domestic urea market showed mixed performance overall. After high-price regional areas declined, order collection improved somewhat. The afternoon market session drove market trading atmosphere to improve slightly, with individual factories beginning to support prices and hold back sales. However, downstream follow-up orders remain cautious. It’s expected that enterprises will temporarily maintain price support in the short term, while downstream buyers remain cautious in entering the market.
❤ Synthetic Ammonia: Yesterday, the synthetic ammonia market remained stable overall with local fluctuations. The current market supply-demand structure continues under pressure, with many ammonia enterprises that were previously under maintenance gradually resuming production. The market supply-demand balance still appears relatively weak. Regional adjustments are expected to dominate the synthetic ammonia market in the short term.
❤ Ammonium Chloride: Yesterday, the ammonium chloride market operated stably. Ammonium chloride enterprises mostly executed previous pending orders, currently not accepting orders at low levels. Compound fertilizer enterprises focused on just-in-time restocking. With enterprises conducting maintenance rotations in the short term and no obvious improvement in supply-demand fundamentals, the ammonium chloride market is expected to operate steadily.
❤ Ammonium Sulfate: Yesterday, the domestic ammonium sulfate market showed poor high-level transactions, with actual transaction centers continuing to decline. At present, there are no obvious short-term changes in supply and demand. However, limited high-level inquiry sentiment in the international market affected buyers’ purchasing sentiment, with heavy “buy on rise, not on fall” emotions in the market. The ammonium sulfate market is expected to continue its weak trend in the short term.
❤ Melamine: Yesterday, the domestic melamine market remained largely stable with only individual regions showing low prices. Overall, market fundamentals lack positive support. Combined with continued negative sentiment from local low prices, the market is expected to operate under pressure.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizer: Yesterday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market atmosphere was good, with manufacturers maintaining firm attitudes. With increased pending orders and inquiries, and cost support remaining high, most are temporarily not accepting orders. Holders continue to test small price increases. Downstream just-in-time demand still exists, maintaining small exploratory increases in the short term. Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate market maintained a stable operating pattern, with enterprise ex-factory prices remaining stable. Current market trading activity is not high, with traders generally maintaining cautious wait-and-see attitudes and conservative operations. The market is expected to maintain stable consolidation in the short term.
❤ Potash Fertilizer: Domestic potash fertilizer market prices have declined significantly, but market prices appear somewhat chaotic with unclear quotations. Imported 62% white potash prices are mostly at 3,250-3,550 yuan/ton, with transactions negotiated individually. Potassium sulfate manufacturers have low facility utilization rates and are not actively purchasing raw materials, with limited high-price potassium sulfate transactions.
❤ Compound Fertilizer:* Yesterday, the compound fertilizer market operated stably. Enterprises continued to focus on autumn fertilizer pre-collection, with no obvious adjustments in pricing policies. The impact of potash fertilizer regulatory policies remains uncertain, and market wait-and-see sentiment may be difficult to ease. The compound fertilizer market is expected to continue observing in the short term with relatively limited volatility.
Pardis sold a 30 Kt at $435/mt for h1 August shipment.
LONDON (ICIS)—Domestic demand is firm in Egypt, no fresh export deals known this week. MOPCO sold 2 x 5,000 tonnes of granular urea in the local market with a price equivalent to $510/tonne bagged free on trucks tax excluded. The domestic/summer season in Egypti will last till mid-August.
Urin Daily
17 July 2025 (Fertecon)
· Large granule urea (GU): It is reported that on July 16, a supplier accepted a counter-offer from RCF for 45,000 tons of goods.
· Large Granular Urea (GU): KPIC won the tender for 30,000 tons of cargo at US $435 / ton (FOB Port Ilanbandas), with a shipping date of late August, and the tender closed on July 15.
· Large Granular Urea (GU): MOPCO sells two batches of 5,000 tons each in the domestic market at a price of $510 / ton (ex works, bags, excluding tax).
· Small pellet urea (PU): FOB indicative range of $430- $445 / ton in the Baltic Sea.
· Large Granular Urea (GU): FOB indicative range of $435-450 / ton in the Baltic Sea.
· Agro-granular urea (AGU): FOB indicative range of $480-505 / ton in the Baltic Sea.
· Large pellet urea (GU): Black Sea FOB price (non-Russian origin) is indicated at $460 / ton.
· Large granular urea (GU): It is understood that one shipment for July was listed at $438 / short ton (New Orleans FOB price) and another was forwarded at $430 / short tons (New OrleansFOB price).
· Large granular urea (GU): It is reported that a cargo of 5000 tons was traded at 475 USD / MT (CFR San Sysco Do Conde, Brazil) for shipment in July.
· Large granule urea (GU): It is reported that there is a 10,000-ton cargo at $480 / ton (CFR in southern Brazil), with a shipment date of July.
(Note: GU is abbreviated for Granular Urea, referring to large granular urea; PU for Prilled Urea abbreviation, refers to small particle urea; AGU stands for Agricultural Granular Urea and refers to agricultural granular urea; FOB means free on board the port of shipment; CFR means cost and freight;Short ton (short ton = 0.907 ton)
Port inventories in China for urea
Morning. RCF receiving confirms close to 1.5m tonnes, Brazil phys sales reported $475-$480cfr, and July Nola phys traded $430…..but paper activity largely quiet y'day. Mkts framed
AG
Jul $460//$485
Aug $460//$485
Sep $450//$475
Q4 $390//$430
cfr Brazil
Jul $455//$475
Aug $465/$480
Sep $455//$480
Egypt
July $470//$490
Aug $475//$500
Sep $465//$500
Nola
Physical: Jul traded $430
Paper:
Jul $423//$430
Aug $430//$440
Sep $430//$445
Q4 $400//$420
Q1 $390//$415
UAN Nola
Jul $350//$375
Aug $265//$300
Sep $255//$300
Oct $250//$300
DAP Nola
Jul $720//$735
Sep $740//$760
Q3 $744//$750
Q4 $695//$715
Q1 $660//$680
MAP Brazil
Jul $750//$775
Aug $755//$780
Sep $745//$775
*Longzhong Chemical Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Brief: (2025-07-17)
Phosphorus Chemicals:
Yesterday, thermal phosphoric acid prices remained stable in quotations. Yellow phosphorus prices declined slightly due to cost pressures and downstream price suppression, weakening cost support for thermal phosphoric acid, with downstream buyers being cautious in inquiries and purchases. Wet-process phosphoric acid supply in the market remains adequate, with mainstream factories maintaining smooth shipments. Downstream demand is diverging – iron phosphate demand shows rigid support while phosphate demand operates weakly.
Phosphate rock prices continue to stabilize at high levels, with relatively low inventory in the market. Combined with phosphate fertilizer enterprises maintaining stable operating rates in the 55-60% range and autumn stocking demand gradually being released, this creates incremental purchasing demand. Under the dual drivers of low inventory and strong demand, mainstream mining companies generally maintain strong price-supporting intentions.
Sulfur:
Yesterday, the domestic port spot market showed narrow downward adjustment, with price range reference at 2,370-2,380 yuan/ton, with mainstream reference prices down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Market directional information is temporarily lacking. After brief stagnation, electronic trading weakened first, making spot market trading atmosphere increasingly cautious under this influence. There were reports of terminal procurement bidding activities, with transaction volumes around 10,000 tons. Domestic resources mainly operated stably, with liquid sulfur prices in Northeast China slightly raised by around 30 yuan/ton. Attention focuses on today’s sales bidding guidance from a major domestic refinery.
Sulfuric Acid:
Yesterday, the domestic sulfuric acid market showed regional upward movement. Supported by growing export orders and phosphate fertilizer industry demand, acid plant inventories operated at low levels. Yesterday, major acid plants in Anhui, Hubei, and Jiangxi synchronously raised acid prices by 40 yuan/ton. The Fujian market was affected by exports and rising acid prices in Jiangxi, with some regions raising prices by 40 yuan/ton yesterday, while other regions followed suit today. The Hunan market was driven by surrounding regions, with provincial major acid plants having smooth external sales, with quotations raised by 10-40 yuan/ton yesterday. Yunnan region saw stable downstream fertilizer demand, with Honghe Prefecture acid plants having smooth sales, raising prices by 20 yuan/ton yesterday. Currently, 98% smelting acid delivered prices in Hubei region are around 720-770 yuan/ton. Yunnan market 98% smelting acid delivered prices are 670-720 yuan/ton.
Urea:
Yesterday, domestic urea prices mainly declined. Major Shandong enterprises improved order collection through price reductions, but most peripheral enterprises had average order collection. Peripheral areas continued to catch up with declines, converging toward lower-end quotations. The market has not yet digested negative impacts, with prices maintaining weak downward adjustment.
Synthetic Ammonia:
Yesterday’s synthetic ammonia market atmosphere was mixed, with local rises and falls. National ammonia market supply and demand remain weak, with northern prices under pressure and declining. The two-Hu region (Hubei and Hunan) saw prices rise against the trend due to reduced supply, with acceptable transactions. Overall, some factories expect maintenance recovery, with synthetic ammonia market sentiment generally cautious.
Ammonium Chloride:
Yesterday, the ammonium chloride market operated stably. Compound fertilizer enterprises mainly conducted just-in-time restocking, but showed resistance to high prices. Ammonium chloride enterprises mostly executed previous pending deliveries, currently not accepting new orders at low levels. With previously shut-down units resuming production, the strong supply-weak demand pattern remains unchanged, so the ammonium chloride market maintains stability in the short term.
Potash Fertilizer:
Yesterday, domestic potassium chloride market prices showed a downward trend. Under supply-stabilizing price policies, major potash traders released goods at prices below market levels, with actual transaction prices mainly subject to individual negotiations. Potassium sulfate manufacturers continued previous quotations, mostly in low-production wait-and-see mode.
Phosphate Fertilizer:
Yesterday, domestic monoammonium phosphate market inquiry atmosphere was acceptable, with factories mostly suspending order acceptance and relatively tight supplies. Some markets quoted 55% powder above 3,400 yuan/ton. Although raw material sulfur prices declined, sulfuric acid prices continued rising, keeping costs high. Additionally, with sufficient pending deliveries and downstream just-in-time demand support, market prices are expected to continue showing slight upward exploration.
Yesterday, domestic diammonium phosphate market continued consolidation, with enterprises still focusing on export orders and domestic signing based on demand. Hubei region 64% ex-factory prices maintained at 3,800-3,850 yuan/ton, with actual orders remaining negotiable. Overall market trading atmosphere operated weakly, with traders mostly operating cautiously. The market maintains stable consolidation in the short term.
Compound Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the compound fertilizer market continued consolidation, with some major production areas raising low-end prices, mostly due to previous cost support. Recently, potash fertilizer advocated price reductions for sales, changing market trend direction. Some downstream waiting sentiment increased, while compound fertilizer adjustments remained cautious. Short-term attention focuses on upstream trends, with compound fertilizer continuing consolidation.
Industrial Monoammonium:*
Yesterday, industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate market demand was average. Domestic 73% industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate mainstream market average price reference was 6,150 yuan/ton, with actual transactions negotiated case by case. With domestic demand in off-season, enterprises focus on shipping export orders. Upstream raw materials sulfuric acid and synthetic ammonia prices slightly increased. Short-term industrial ammonium market demand is under pressure with weak price support. Future market needs attention to enterprise operations and downstream demand conditions.
Sulphur update
CHINA
– End user demand increased in local market
– Formosa tender awarded at $271 FOB. ($287 CFR China equiv)
INDIA
– Coromandel looking for August cargo.
INDONESIA
– Tsingshan tender awarded at around $280 CFR
MIDDLE EAST
– Muntajat tender closing 23 July
MED/B.SEA/AFRICA
– High-$260s CFR Med
AMERICAS
– Vancouver now at $250 FOB
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[Urea] On July 16, the daily production of the urea industry was 194,700 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 13,300 tons from the same period last year; the current operational rate was 84.10%, an increase of 0.35% from the 83.75% recorded last year.
This week's sulphur market reflects a cautious correction across several major export hubs, and despite price volatility, demand in the fertilizer and petrochemicals sectors continues to lead to cautious market activity.
FOB Iran (Granular): $225–240/t (unchanged) –
FOB Middle East (excl. Iran): $255–260/t (−2.5) –
CFR India: $277–281/t (−4.5) –
CFR North Africa (Lump): $255–274/t (−1.5) –
CFR North Africa (Granular): $265–274/t (unchanged) –
CFR Southern Africa: $284–288/t (−1.0) –
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Morning. Int'l paper focused on Aug Brazil y'day with $475 repeat trading, Nola urea activity 'stand-offish' so far during Southwest, while DAP still firm, as Q3 paper traded $746 (+$18 from last Weds).
AG
Jul $460//$485
Aug $465//$480
Sep $450//$475
Q4 $390//$430
cfr Brazil
Jul $455//$475
Aug $465/$475 – traded $475s
Sep $455//$475
Egypt
July $470//$490
Aug $475//$505
Sep $470//$495
Nola
Paper:
Jul $423//$430
Aug $430//$440
Sep $425//$440
Q4 $395//$420
Q1 $385//$415
UAN Nola
Jul $350//$375
Aug $250//$290
Sep $250//$290
Oct $250//$300
DAP Nola
Phys: Sept $750, $755 traded
Jul $720//$735
Sep $740//$760
Q3 $740//$750 – traded $746
Q4 $695//$715
Q1 $660//$680
MAP Brazil
Jul $750//$775
Aug $755//$780
Sep $745//$775