Ghana’s Ministry of Food and Agriculture has struck a $5 billion agreement with Qatar’s Al Jadad Holdings and Granum Ltd to develop its first large-scale fertilizer production facility at Atuabo.
The project, set to break ground in October 2025, will produce urea and ammonia using excess offshore natural gas from Ghana’s own Atuabo Gas Processing Plant, with commissioning expected in 2028.
Morning. Urea mkts continued to await official news from India y'day, but with rumours of huge volumes on offer, bids scaled back, and weaker tone ensued. On paper, Oct Brazil traded mid-$440s ($451 on Tues), Nov Nola at $390. Mkts framed:
AG
Sep $440//$450
Oct $430//$445
Q4 $415//$440
Cfr Brazil
Sep $440//$455
Oct $432//$445 – traded $444.50
Nov $425//$440
Egypt
Sep $440//$456
Oct $430//$445
Nov $420//$445
Amsul CFR Brazil
Sep $170//$180
Oct $170//179
Nov $160//$175
Nola
Phys: Loaded traded $410, Dec $390
Sep $400//$412
Oct $390//$400
Nov $385//$398 – traded $390
Dec $385//$395
Jan $385//$395
UAN Nola
Sep $300/$345
Oct $310//$340
DAP Nola
Sep $775//$785 – traded $780
Oct $735//755
Q4 $725//$750
Q1 $665//$715
MAP Brazil
Sep $660//$698
Oct $650//$693
Nov/Dec $691 Offer
China domestic market: Market analysis for today.
Over time, driven by industrial necessities, localized autumn fertilizer demands, continuous export shipments, and the start of reserves in the Northeast, there is potential for the urea market to improve. However, influenced by sentiment and policies, coupled with ample supply, price fluctuations are always constrained, potentially exhibiting short-term low-level volatility.
China Morning Summary 04/09/2025
—
❤ Phosphate Rock:
Phosphate rock supply within the site continues to be tight. Downstream phosphate fertilizer and phosphate chemical production is stable with a slight decline. Enterprises show weak purchasing enthusiasm. Overall, the phosphate rock market supply and demand is basically balanced. Price fluctuation space is limited. In the short term, stability is the main trend.
❤ Urea:
Yesterday, the domestic urea market was lukewarm. Futures prices unexpectedly plunged. Spot transactions were relatively light. With the end of the military parade activities, local downstream production is expected to increase. Currently, bullish expectations and weak reality are in a tug-of-war. The market is temporarily maintaining a wait-and-see stance.
❤ Synthetic Ammonia:
The synthetic ammonia market shows regional operation. In the northern region, with the conclusion of major events, downstream demand is gradually released, coupled with the recovery of logistics and transportation, market sentiment is boosted, and ammonia enterprises have a stronger willingness to hold prices. In the southern market, attention should be paid to the pace of new capacity release. In the short term, it may maintain a volatile consolidation pattern, and the market-watching atmosphere remains.
❤ Ammonium Chloride:
Yesterday, the ammonium chloride market trading atmosphere was weak. High prices fell back. Currently, ammonium chloride enterprises mainly hold prices and watch the market. There are still previously scheduled orders being executed, but inventory has increased. Compound fertilizer enterprises have low purchasing intention for ammonium chloride. In the short term, the ammonium chloride market is mainly in low-level consolidation.
❤ Ammonium Sulfate:
Yesterday, the ammonium sulfate market overall declined. In the north, affected by collective activities, granular factories have not fully resumed production. Overall shipments are still restricted. Coupled with weak international market transactions, operators’ business mentality is frustrated. It is expected that the ammonium sulfate market will continue to decline in the short term. Attention is on the results of the Indian tender for urea.
❤ Melamine:
Yesterday, the domestic melamine market generally stabilized. Market supply is expected to increase, and there is no obvious improvement in demand. Market atmosphere remains weak. Enterprises, under sales pressure, may loosen their offers. Further attention is needed on changes in raw material urea trends.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market maintained flat operation. Although low-end prices rebounded slightly, actual order follow-up remained weak. Downstream compound fertilizer mainly shipped goods. Raw material procurement was limited, only small quantities for rigid demand. Raw material sulfur port prices fell slightly, but overall cost remains high. In the short term, it maintains weak consolidation operation.
Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate market trend improved. Trading atmosphere was better than before. Enterprises’ ex-factory prices remained stable. In Hubei region, 64% ex-factory price stayed at 3800–3850 yuan/ton, with actual orders negotiated. Market 64% supply is tight. Prices are firmly rising. Downstream purchases based on demand. In the short term, the market remains firm.
❤ Potash Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the domestic potash fertilizer market trend was relatively flat. Market prices varied. There is still a certain difference between north and south prices. Potassium chloride market overall supply is limited, but under insufficient downstream demand, transactions are stalemated. Mannheim potassium sulfate plant operating rate is low. Resource-type potassium sulfate manufacturers’ plants are gradually returning to normal.
❤ Compound Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the domestic compound fertilizer market maintained stable operation. Due to concentrated shipments by enterprises at the end of the month, early September shipments slowed down. Downstream distributors mainly focused on sinking inventory. Replenishment remains cautious. Compound fertilizer prices have not been significantly adjusted. Many actual orders are negotiable. Trading is relatively flexible. In the short term, without obvious bullish support, compound fertilizer continues stable consolidation. <This message was edited>
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In a move poised to catapult Ethiopia onto the global stage as a major fertilizer producer, Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH), the strategic investment arm of the Government of Ethiopia, and Dangote Group have finalized a landmark shareholders’ agreement to develop a world-class urea fertilizer production complex in Gode, Ethiopia. This transformative project, valued at $2.5 billion USD, marks one of the single largest industrial investments in Ethiopian history.
The partnership, structured with EIH holding a significant 40% equity stake and Dangote Group retaining 60% ownership, will see the joint financing, construction, and operation of a state-of-the-art facility boasting a production capacity of up to three million metric tons of urea per annum. This output places the Gode complex among the top five largest single-site urea production centers worldwide, securing Ethiopia's position as a key player in the global fertilizer market.
Beyond its sheer scale the agreement paves the way for future expansions, upgrades, and diversification into other ammonia-based fertilizers, such as ammonium nitrate, ammonium sulfate, and calcium ammonium nitrate, solidifying Ethiopia’s role as a regional fertilizer production hub.
Completion of the Gode complex is targeted within 40 months, representing a rapid development timeline for a project of this magnitude.
🌾 North West Phosphate Signs MOU with Adani Enterprises 🌾
North West Phosphate today signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Adani Enterprises Limited to supply high-quality Australian phosphate rock for fertiliser manufacturing — strengthening supply chains and advancing global food security.
Queensland, and North West Phosphate in particular, share a long and proud history with Adani, built on trust, collaboration, and a shared commitment to delivering projects of global significance. Our combined values, which are focused on delivering high-quality nutrient security to the communities and regions we represent, has today been solidified and we are incredibly excited about where this partnership will lead.
North West Phosphate and Adani spoke at length today about the benefits of this MOU, articulating to the Premier of Queensland, the Hon. David Crisafulli MP, the dividends it stands to deliver for not just Queensland, but Australia, India and the broader region.
This milestone also builds on the momentum of the proposed PhosOne Joint Venture between North West Phosphate and Sibanye-Stillwater Australia, recently declared a Prescribed Project by the Queensland Government.
🌏 Together, we are committed to strengthening supply chain resilience, backing Australian farmers, and safeguarding food security for future generations.
5.6 mil Mts is not good for this market / holy crap, only 2 mil can get taken out of the system, take out double counting and add back in Iran leave 2/3mil Mts
Record highest ever tonnage submitted? 4.59 mil was previous highest….
Oh my
5.6 mil ! Holy mackerel
Morning. Int'l paper sentiment softening y'day, with official news still awaited following NFL tender close. In Nola, Oct paper repeat traded $402 before moving down to $400. Mkts framed:
AG
Sep $440//$450 -traded $445 (1k)
Oct $435//$450
Q4 $425//$445
Cfr Brazil
Sep $445//$460
Oct $440//$455 – traded $451 (3k)
Nov $435//$450
Egypt
Sep $445//$460
Oct $435//$450
Nov $430//$450
Amsul CFR Brazil
Sep $172//$180
Oct $170//179
Nov $160//$175
Nola
Sep $405//$415
Oct $395//$405 – traded $402, $401, $400
Nov $395//$403
Dec $395//$405
Jan $390//$405
Q1 $385//$420
UAN Nola
Sep $300/$345
Oct $310//$340
DAP Nola
Sep $775//$790
Oct $735//755
Q4 $725//$750
Q1 $665//$715
MAP Brazil
Sep $660//$698
Oct $650//$693
(China) early morning phosphorus industry chain briefing:
—
🪨 Phosphate Rock
• Northern China: Environmental policies have led to shutdowns at some beneficiation plants, tightening supply. Some regions plan to raise prices by ¥10/ton after the military parade.
• Prices:• Hebei (32–33% grade): ¥920–950/ton ex-works
• Liaoning (33% grade): ¥910/ton ex-works
• Actual deals are negotiated case-by-case.
—
🌾 Agricultural Ammonium Phosphates
• Mono-Ammonium Phosphate (MAP):• Market remains weak; compound fertilizer buyers are inactive.
• Sulfur prices continue rising.
• Some large producers released new prices, offering limited support.
• Short-term outlook: stable but cautious.
• Di-Ammonium Phosphate (DAP):• Prices flat; Hubei 64% grade at ¥3800–3850/ton ex-works.
• Demand is gradually picking up, but trading remains subdued.
• Industrial MAP (73%):• Market in a supply-demand deadlock.
• Average price around ¥5800/ton; actual deals negotiated individually.
• Raw materials (phosphate rock, sulfur) remain high; sentiment cautious.
—
🔥 Yellow Phosphorus
• Prices: ¥22,550–22,650/ton
• Market sentiment weak; buyers and sellers hesitant.
• Prices stable but lack transaction support.
• Watch for price adjustments from major Yunnan producers and Guizhou tenders.
—
🧪 Phosphoric Acid
• Wet-process:• Prices mostly unchanged; raw materials stable.
• Sulfur and sulfuric acid prices slightly up, supporting costs.
• Market remains firm short-term.
• Thermal-process:• Demand weak; orders mostly for immediate needs.
• Prices:• Sichuan: ¥6350–6400/ton ex-works
• Southern Jiangsu: ¥6700–6800/ton delivered
• Deals negotiated by volume.
—
🦴 Dicalcium Phosphate (DCP)
• Trade Market Prices:• Yunnan: ¥3040–3050/ton
• Sichuan: ¥3150–3180/ton
• Hubei: ¥3240–3250/ton
• Monocalcium & Dicalcium:• Yunnan: ¥4260–4270/ton
• Guizhou: ¥4300/ton (limited supply)
• Dihydrate DCP:• Yunnan: ¥4700–4750/ton
• Guizhou: ¥4750–4850/ton
—
🌿 Agrochemicals
• Glyphosate:• Market firming slightly; prices remain high.
• Overseas formulation orders increasing.
• 95% technical grade: ¥27,200–27,500/ton; deals negotiated individually.
—
🧊 Sulfur
• Market in a supply-demand standoff.
• Non-mainstream deals at ¥2620/ton; large volumes traded.
• Yangtze River port granular sulfur: ¥2620–2625/ton; futures at ¥2630/ton.
• Domestic supply rising steadily; refineries shipping smoothly.
• Watch for pricing decisions from major refineries and tender results.
—
🧪 Sulfuric Acid
• Regional divergence:• Inner Mongolia (Chifeng): Maintenance underway; demand strong; prices up ¥10/ton.
• Henan (Sanmenxia): Maintenance ongoing; inventory rising; prices slightly down.
• Fujian: Prices down ¥20/ton due to weak demand.
• Prices:• Henan 98% smelting acid: ¥490–600/ton
• Inner Mongolia: ¥630–810/ton
—
⚙️ Iron Phosphate
• Prices stuck in a narrow range: ¥10,000–11,000/ton
• High-end deals limited; low-end competition intensifying.
• Wet-process phosphoric acid inventory low; prices stable.
• Lithium carbonate prices fluctuating; market cautious.
• Iron phosphate lithium prices stable; outlook: continued stalemate.
—
🔋 Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP)
• Prices slightly down:• Power-grade: ¥33,700–36,700/ton
• Energy-storage-grade: ¥32,700–34,650/ton
• Lithium carbonate concerns persist; costs slipping.
• Downstream battery plants ramping up; demand improving.
• Watch for lithium mine permit issues and downstream restocking.
—
🧪 Synthetic Ammonia
• Regional supply-demand divergence.
• Central China and Shandong seeing good order flow.
• Other regions stable.
• Watch for new capacity releases.
—
🌾 Compound Fertilizer
• Market stable; autumn fertilizer shipments progressing.
• Price adjustments minimal; some policy-related tweaks.
• Short-term outlook: consolidation.
• Hebei region sees temporary dip in supply-demand activity.
—
💧 Hydrogen Peroxide
• North: Slight price dip
• South: Prices firm
• Supply stable; producers holding firm.
• Downstream paper mills placing orders, boosting East Shandong market.
• Anhui production stable; inventories manageable.
• Outlook: steady operation with potential for increased output.
Fei Yitong Daily Review: On September 1, the national urea market price remained stable; today, upstream quotations are strong, but transactions are relatively weak, with middlemen facing difficulties in markup sales. The downstream market is showing a tepid performance, leading to cautious bearish sentiment. According to Fei Yitong data, on September 1, 2025, the national daily production of urea was 185,600 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 78.42%. Overall, the market has maintained stability.
Morning Phil. It seems NFL L1 sub $480 cfr. Not impossible given Iran at $405 fob and China at $435 fob.
Hello, I am back from hols!
LONDON (ICIS)– In India, NFL has received 29 offers in its urea import tender. We don’t know the volume offered yet and prices will probably open in the second half tomorrow (best case). No idea on prices yet but expectations are significantly below the previous 4 August tender when IPL bought 2.08 million tonnes at $530-532/tonne CFR, for shipment by 22 September.
Morning. Paper mkts quiet to start the week with trade awaiting news/direction from NFL tender (closing today), and holiday in US. Mkts framed:
AG
Sep $450//$460
Oct $445//$458
Q4 $425//$445
Cfr Brazil
Sep $450//$465
Oct $447//$460
Nov $440//$453
Dec $430/$445
Egypt
Sep $450//$470
Oct $445//$465
Nov $440//$460
Amsul CFR Brazil
Sep $172//$180
Oct $172//179
Nov $167//$178
Nola
Paper:
Sep $410//$415 – traded $413 Fri
Oct $400//$410
Nov $395//$403
Dec $395//$405
Jan $390//$405
Q1 $390//$420
UAN Nola
Sep $300/$345
Oct $310//$340
DAP Nola
Sep $780//$790 – traded $785 Fri
Oct $735//755
Q4 $725//$750
Q1 $665//$715
MAP Brazil
Sep $660//$710
Oct $655//$695