As dawn broke over the US Thanksgiving holiday, it was ammonia buyers West of Suez who had reason to be grateful as a tanker arrived at the Gulf Coast Ammonia (GCA) export terminal to finally load the long-awaited second cargo from the delayed 1.3m. tonne/year project.
While details about the 25,000t lifting by Nutrien’s Kaprijke are elusive, the new capacity provided by the Texan project has been welcomed by buyers in North Africa and Europe given it should ease some of the recent upward price pressure.
Exactly eight months to the day that the inaugural cargo departed Port of Texas City, the second shipment was placed on the mid-sized carrier, with talk the material could head to a Chilean customer of the Canadian major.
The group has certainly been active in the ammonia spot market in the wake of the 23 October controlled shutdown of its four ammonia units and one urea line in Trinidad due to a row over port access fees and natgas supply reliability.
“Nutrien will continue to engage with stakeholders and assess options with respect to its operations in Trinidad,” the group said last month, adding ammonia and urea sales volumes from the operations are around 85,000t and 55,000t per month, respectively.
The company subsequently bought at least two spot cargoes of 25-28,000t on a cfr basis for delivery to term buyers in Europe.
According to the increase in the Kaprijke’s draught displayed by its Automatic Identification System (AIS) over the past 24 hours, the latest GCA loading has gone to plan, and the carrier looks poised to depart shortly.
In late March, Yara loaded nearly 15,000t of GCA product on the Dancing Brave for Norway, though information surrounding the vendor and price was never disclosed.
Additional US Gulf capacity set to appear soon
Any sign GCA is ramping up output will be welcomed by buyers West of Suez as the major new project was originally due to debut two and a half years ago.
While Morocco’s OCP Group will receive the vast majority of the volume, other leading players are also expected to receive tonnes from a plant that will bring a better balance to markets in North Africa and Europe.
Before the end of this year, or in early 2026, another new ammonia plant will launch in Texas, with Woodside Energy’s 1.1m. tonne/year Beaumont New Ammonia project preparing to commence commissioning.
Earlier this month, the Australian energy giant confirmed material from the plant, which it acquired from OCI Global for $2.35 billion last year, will be sold via a “mix of term and spot sales, targeting US and Europe” between 2026 and 2028.
From 2029, Woodside aims to “broaden ‘[its] customer base, including APAC [Asia Pacific] markets and global maritime fuels”, given the plant will incorporate carbon capture technology that is favoured by countries in Northeast Asia who have adopted strict clean energy policies.
Elsewhere in the US, Yara and Mosaic have still to settle the Tampa contract for December loadings, but with the month almost at an end, an agreement should emerge in the next few days.
Outside of the US Gulf, activity was muted and most players kept their cards close to their chest when it came to discussing spot business and prices.
This was reflected in the lack of numbers for cargoes sold into the UK and Brazil, while no new fob figures were shared for future liftings from key export hubs.
Activity was also muted East of Suez, where the supply situation is far healthier despite a Saudi plant shutdown taking a bite out of Middle East availability for the past few months.
Robust run rates at plants across Southeast Asia, China and many countries in the Middle East mean export availability is extremely healthy as the year draws to a close, though seasonal turnarounds at chemicals units have cooled spot activity and prices.
Morning. Int'l paper ideas largely unchanged y'day with interest range-bound. Nola however saw Bid support return, with activity focusing on Feb/Mar paper & phys, and values rebounding $5-$10 from prior day's close.
AG
Dec $385//$398
Jan $370//$385
Feb $368//$378
Cfr Brazil
Dec $390//$405
Jan $375//$382 -traded $379
Feb $374//$380
Q3 $375//$390
Egypt
Dec $425//$455
Jan $390//$420
Brazil Amsul
Dec $172/$185
Jan 172//$190
May/Jun $180 Bid
Nola
Phys : MAR traded $365, $367
Paper:
Dec $353//$357 – traded $355
Jan $355//$360
Feb $365//$370 – traded $363, $361, $365
Mar $365//$370
Apr $365//$372
May $358//$365
Jun $350//$360
Option: Q1 $380 Call traded $9
UAN Nola
Dec $290//$315
Jan $285//$320
Feb $280//$320
DAP Nola
Dec $650//$690
Jan $630//$640
Feb $630//$645
Q1 $625//$645
MAP Brazil
Dec $620//$640
Q1 620 Bid
LONDON (ICIS)–Slow week for urea, while phosphates has also slowed down. Sulphur prices are shooting up with QSP up $95/tonne from November. And for ammonia, in the US, the Tampa ammonia contract price was settled for December at $650/tonne CFR, at a rollover from November.
Market is quite, everyone waiting for the new regulations regarding the CBAM and know one wants to take the risk and buy new quantities
As of December 3, 2025, the total inventory of China’s urea enterprises stood at 1.2905 million tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons from the previous week, representing a decrease of 5.38% month-on-month. During this period, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline. The ongoing replenishment of recent reserve needs, the resurgence of demand from the compound fertilizer industry, combined with the promotion of some export demands, have maintained the trend of reducing urea enterprise inventory. The provinces with decreased inventory during this period include Hainan, Hebei, Hubei, Jilin, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shandong, Shaanxi, Sichuan, and Chongqing. The provinces with increased inventory include Anhui, Gansu, Henan, Heilongjiang, Xinjiang, and Yunnan.
from MOPCO
Morning. Urea paper values trending lower yday as activity focused on Nola, w/Jan trading to low-$350s. Int'l paper bids largely pulled back, but Jan Brazil traded $380cfr (in-line w/ Fri), while price discovery found further out on Aug Brazil. Mkts framed:
AG
Dec $385//$398
Jan $367//$378
Feb $365//$375
Cfr Brazil
Dec $385//$397
Jan $372//$382 – traded $380
Feb $374//$380
Q3 $375//$388
(Aug traded $382.50)
Egypt
Dec $425//$455
Jan $390//$420
Nola
Phys: Jan traded $358, $357
Paper:
Dec $355//$365
Jan $350//$355 – traded $355, $354, $351.50
Feb $355//$362
Mar $355//$365 – traded $368
Apr $355//$365
May $355//$365
Jun $350//$360
(Q1 & Q2 traded $365 odd vols)
Sep traded $360
UAN Nola
Dec $290//$315
Jan $285//$320
Feb $280//$320
DAP Nola
Dec $650//$690
Jan $630//$640
Feb $630//$645
Q1 $625//$645
MAP Brazil
Dec $620//$640
Q1 620 Bid
The cost of shipping commodities through the Black Sea climbed on Monday after Ukrainian naval drones hit two tankers heading to a Russian port, with fears of further attacks driving up war risk insurance costs, industry sources said.
The Black Sea is crucial for the shipment of grain, oil and oil products. Its waters are shared by Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania and Turkey, as well as Russia and Ukraine.
War risk rates for a typical seven-day voyage period, which are set by individual underwriters and are based on the value of the ship, rose to 0.5% for calls to Ukrainian ports from 0.4% over a week ago, shipping and insurance sources said.
War risk insurance for Russian Black Sea ports, which is typically higher, was quoted at between 0.65-0.8% versus around 0.6% last week, the sources added.
Tankers Attacked While Sailing To Novorossiysk
The two tankers, which were under Western sanctions, were attacked by navy drones while they were empty and sailing to Novorossiysk, a major Russian Black Sea oil terminal, an official at the Security Service of Ukraine told Reuters.
The Black Sea incidents point to a campaign by Ukraine to restrict Russian oil revenue which was "shaping underwriters’ assessment of intent and capability", said Munro Anderson, head of operations at marine war risk and insurance specialist Vessel Protect, part of Pen Underwriting.
"Rates have firmed in line with that view. For Russian port calls, underwriters are pricing in a broader range of possible strike locations and a higher likelihood of repetition," he said.
"As Ukrainian activity increases, the probability of reciprocal Russian action grows. That creates a more even risk gradient across both trades than we have seen in some time." Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday that attacks on commercial ships in the Black Sea were unacceptable, issuing a warning to "all related sides".
The latest Black Sea incidents were the first attacks on non-military, non-Russian flagged vessels in international waters, said Andrii Ryzhenko, a naval analyst and former deputy chief of staff of the Ukrainian navy.
Ryzhenko said it was unlikely that Russia would retaliate against commercial shipping heading to Ukraine when it was in the territorial waters of Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania, as that would amount to an attack on NATO territory.
"They're (Russia) attacking (vessels) all of the time, at least in Ukrainian territorial waters and using different types of weapons."
Mysterious Blasts
There have been at least seven blasts on separate tankers that called at Russian ports since December 2024 at locations including the Mediterranean, with Ukraine suspected of carrying them out, maritime security sources said. A Turkish-owned oil tanker that was damaged near Senegal's coast last week was hit by four external explosions, but there were no injuries or pollution, its manager said on Monday.
The Mersin tanker had previously called at a Russian port, and maritime security sources said their initial assessment was the vessel had been targeted by limpet mines, similar to other incidents this year which have not been confirmed by Ukraine.
The vessel was currently secured and under close control, a spokesperson with Dakar Port Authority said, confirming "a serious incident in the engine room caused a major water ingress". The spokesperson added that the exact nature of the incident would be made public in due course.
The dollar slipped against the Japanese yen on Monday following Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's strongest indication to date that a December interest rate increase could be under consideration, providing support to the embattled yen.
Meanwhile, mounting expectations for a December interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve exerted downward pressure on the dollar.
He subsequently told a press conference that he would elaborate on the central bank's future rate hike path once rates are raised to 0.75%, adding that December's policy decision would take into account wage information and other data.
That pushed the dollar down by nearly 1% to 154.665 yen, before the U.S. currency pared losses to trade down 0.7% at 155.09 yen.
"It does seem like the BOJ is indicating greater comfort with moving towards hikes," Jayati Bharadwaj, head of FX strategy at TD Securities, said.
"We expect them to actually hike in December, so it does take us closer to our call and that's actually helping the yen."
Traders have priced in a growing chance of a December hike from the BOJ, with the yen's slide to 10-month lows last month adding to the case for raising rates.
The yen rallied against a range of currencies, leaving the euro down 0.4% and the pound down 0.6%.
DOLLAR DOWNBEAT
In the broader market, the dollar traded with a softer tone as investors braced for a pivotal month that could bring the Fed's final rate cut of the year and the confirmation of a dovish successor to Chair Jerome Powell.
Data on Monday showed U.S. manufacturing contracted for the ninth straight month in November, with factories facing slumping orders and higher prices for inputs as the drag from import tariffs persisted.
The euro rose 0.5% to a more than two-week high of $1.1652, before paring gains to trade up 0.1%.
Sterling was 0.2% lower at $1.3254 after logging its best week in over three months last week in a relief rally after British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' budget revelations.
Traders are now pricing in an 88% chance the Fed will cut by 25 basis points when it convenes next week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
What is less clear-cut is what happens after December.
Money markets right now show very little chance of another cut before spring. Some analysts believe December might even yield a "hawkish cut" – trader-speak for a cut accompanied by indications from policymakers that another near-term fall in borrowing costs may not be forthcoming.
FED LEADERSHIP
The dollar is struggling as investors treat a December cut as nearly a done deal. Adding to the pressure was a report that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett could be the next Fed chair, which contributed to the dollar's worst weekly performance against a basket of major currencies in four months last week.
"With December FOMC now closer to fully pricing a 25bp cut, we think the market will increasingly focus on the pricing of subsequent meetings," Goldman Sachs economists said in a note.
"Division on the committee is restraining more dovish pricing, but with a large amount of labor market data due before the January meeting we think too little is priced in Q1."
Trading on the foreign exchange market was back to normal on Monday following an hours-long outage at the world's largest exchange operator CME Group last week, which upended transactions across stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies.
Bitcoin fell below $90,000 on Monday, as a selloff gathered pace following the steepest monthly decline since mid-2021, as renewed risk aversion drove investors out of stocks and digital assets. Bitcoin was last down 6% at $85,464.
—
Logic Behind Compound Fertilizer Price Increases in China
Taking 45%S (3*15) as an example, the current domestic average price is 3,025 RMB/ton, which is 142 RMB/ton higher than on November 1. Let’s analyze the basic logic behind the price rise during the winter storage period:
1. Cost Push
Over the past month, the prices of major raw materials for compound fertilizer have all shown an upward trend. Sulfur, sulfuric acid, and monoammonium phosphate have risen most significantly, while synthetic ammonia, potassium sulfate, and urea have also increased to varying degrees. This directly drives up compound fertilizer costs. Statistics show that the cost of 45%S (315) rose by 189 RMB/ton, and 45%CL (315) rose by 105 RMB/ton. Since cost increases outpace price increases, this has become the reason for the current price catch-up.
2. Tight Seasonal Transition
In North China, the autumn wheat season ended 15–20 days later than usual, with some areas finishing around November 20. This overlaps with the winter storage period. At this time, companies’ raw material and cost inventories are often at low levels, forcing them to face high costs head-on, which inevitably gets passed downstream.
3. Rigid Downstream Demand
Winter storage is mainly preparation for spring planting, which requires large amounts of fertilizer with diverse demand across wide regions. Under the backdrop of food security, agriculture enjoys policy support, and rising regional grain prices have boosted market optimism for future demand, laying the groundwork for fertilizer price increases.
—
Market Dynamics Before Peak Season
Traditionally, prices rise in the off-season and fall in the peak season. As the busy season approaches, market dynamics will shift, so distributors act cautiously. However, overall, the motivation for price cuts is weak, for the following reasons:
A. Persistently High Costs
• Monoammonium phosphate: High costs and current inverted margins suggest prices will remain high.
• Diammonium phosphate: Prices remain elevated, highlighting compound fertilizer’s cost-effectiveness.
• Potassium chloride: After large contracts are finalized, arrivals are expected, with slight price adjustments.
• Urea: Highly volatile. In the next three months, shutdowns at gas-based plants may provide short-term support for urea prices. Attention should be paid to the completion of stockpiling and demand release. Overall, raw material costs are expected to remain high before the Spring Festival, supporting firms in maintaining high prices.
B. Will Spring Demand Be Released All at Once?
Spring fertilizer use is concentrated. If channel arrivals are insufficient before the Spring Festival, supply and demand may both be strong. Moreover, distributors already hold some winter storage inventory and, to protect profits, will not easily sell at low prices, reducing the risk of price fluctuations.
—
Conclusion
Driven by high costs and rigid demand, compound fertilizer prices are expected to remain stable at high levels as the busy season approaches. Of course, if extreme weather or sharp raw material price changes occur, fertilizer prices will need timely adjustments.
China domestic market:
Over the next three months, the production and supply of urea will operate at a relatively high level. Although there will be periods when gas-based enterprises shut down, this will provide temporary support for the slight strengthening of urea prices. However, as new production capacity comes online and previously modified enterprises resume operations, the daily production level of urea will remain around 200,000 tons. Initially, urea prices may rise slightly due to the influence of stockpiles, but as the stockpiling phase concludes and changes occur in demand release, the market trend may shift from strong to weak before eventually rebounding.
I am probably late to the party but:
India looks to Morocco as strategic fertiliser supplier
https://northafricapost.com/92725-india-looks-to-morocco-as-strategic-fertilizer-supplier.html
𝗢𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗔𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁: 𝗠𝗶𝘀𝗿 𝗣𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗽𝗵𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗔𝗱𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲
Misr Phosphate has officially announced that it will increase phosphate rock prices starting January 2026.
This shift is driven by fundamental cost-side and structural factors:
🔸 Sharp rise in energy costs: Mining and transportation expenses have increased significantly compared with last year.
🔸 Higher prices for consumables and industrial components:
🔸 Expansion of downstream projects in Egypt (phosphoric acid, DAP, TSP): These plants require secure and consistent feedstock, putting pressure on domestic supply and reducing export availability.
🔸 Misr Phosphate aims to increase ROM production to 7 million tons in 2025; expanding capacity is never cheap—capital and operational expenses inevitably translate into higher FOB prices.
The message for the global market is clear:
From 2026 onward, Egypt does not intend to export cheap phosphate rock.
That said, this adjustment may not apply equally to all grades. To remain competitive—particularly against Pakistan in low-grade rock markets in East Asia—Egypt may keep lower-grade prices relatively stable and avoid aggressive increases in those segments.
For fertilizer producers worldwide, these changes mean more expensive feedstock, tighter margins, and a greater need for risk-management strategies throughout 2026.
Morning. Last week – IPL issued LOIs for 1.5m tonnes, but softer tone crept in on paper values, with uncertainty of how long India will now be out for, and where next major demand comes from. Mkts framed:
AG
Dec $387//$400
Jan $373//$383
_[Jan traded $375 last week]_
Feb $368//$378
_[Feb traded $380 l/w]_
Cfr Brazil
Dec $390//$398
_[Dec traded $396-$394 l/w]_
Jan $380//$386 – traded $383, $380 Fri
Feb $375//$383
_[Feb traded $380 l/w]_
Egypt
Dec $425//$455
Jan $390//$425
Brazil Amsul
Dec $172//$185
Jan $167//$185
….
Nola
Mkts framed Weds COB – US mkts off for Thanksgiving:
Paper:
Dec $365//$375
Jan $357//$365
Feb $362//$373
Mar $367//$378
Apr $365//$385
May $370//$380
Q1 $365//$382
UAN Nola
Dec $290//$315
Jan $285//$320
Feb $280//$320
DAP Nola
Dec $650//$690
Jan $630//$640
Feb $630//$645
Q1 $625//$645
MAP Brazil
Dec $620//$640
Q1 620 Buyer
*Inventory update*
Levels at 15% capacity.