*Policy watch*
Export policy changes expected soon.
*Supply tight*
Limited spot availability reported.
*Policy watch*
Export policy changes expected soon.
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
Current 2025 guidance is 73-75 million mt
Nutrien's current guidance for potash in 2026 is 74-77 million mt
Prices are still moving up despite worries over affordability.
So far only European operations have curtailed production or shut down in a meaningful way; some due to high sulphur prices and others due to strong competition from low-cost producers. There is no demand destruction evident from the phosphate fertilizer sector yet, though some maintenance work announced by P producers could keep their sulphur consumption low for now. Metals producers, such as copper producers in deposit-rich DRC, remain profitable. Uranium miners also see no pressure on profitability at present.
The reality is, we continue to see fertilizer producers and nickel producers (including those outside Indonesia) negotiating and securing December loaders.
As for supply, spot availability for December is concentrated in the hands of a few, while Kuwait’s cargo delays due to a fire in October, Russia’s sulphur export ban, depletion of crushed lumps in Kazakhstan and reduced availability in the US persist.
In June 2022, when we saw the last price peak for sulphur, I wrote that “it is now all about availability versus affordability.” This holds true for the current market. I see two scenarios leading to a price correction: either cracks in demand led by the phosphate sector in the coming months, or supply improvement that changes market sentiment.
But for now, it is survival of the fittest, and no one wants to be the first to go.
Morning. Sell pressure in Nola Urea brought softening, albeit to lesser extent, on Int'l paper yday before some support found by end of an active day. On Phos, Q1 DAP Nola values fell $20+/- after Jan/Feb traded $630 the day prior. Mkts framed:
AG weekly index = $400
Dec $384//$393
Jan $372//$378 – traded $380s-$376s
Feb $365//$375
Q1 $370//$373
Cfr Brazil weekly index = $405
Dec $390//$400
Jan $375//$382 – traded $378.50
Feb $370//$377 – traded $374
Q3 $375//$390
Egypt weekly index = $445
Dec $425//$455
Jan $390//$420
Nola
Phys: Dec traded $350. Mar $358, $360
Paper:
Dec $350//$352- repeat traded $350
Jan $348//$354 – traded $350
Feb $354//$360 – traded $357.50
Mar $358//$362 – traded $360
Apr $358//$363 – traded $360, $363
May $355//$364
Jun $350//$360
Brazil Amsul weekly index = $185
Dec $180/$198
Jan $178//$195
UAN Nola weekly index = $320
Dec $290//$310
Jan $285//$305
Feb $280//$305
DAP Nola weekly index = $640
Dec $650//$690
Jan $600//$615
Feb $600//$615
Q1 $600//$618 – traded $608, $612
MAP Brazil weekly index = $630
Dec $620//$640
Q1 620 Buyer
Urea Cargoes to India – So far hearing 3 cargo from Petronas. Maybe 7 from China to IPL and 1 re-exported – Vietnam (3 AGBT, 1 Koch, 1 Ameropa, 3 Midgulf). Chinese exports all switch BL
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-fertiliser-firms-sign-deal-with-uralchem-set-up-russian-plant-sources-say-2025-12-04/
-THE UREA PRICE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT LOWER ON MUTED DEMAND IN MAJOR MARKETS WITH ONLY INDIA ACTIVE
-THE PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES ARE FALLING OFF A CLIFF DUE TO MUTED DEMAND AND AFFORDABILITY ISSUES
POTASH PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT LOWER WITH INCREASED SUPPLY
-AMMONIA PRICES ARE STABLE FOR NOW BUT COULD DRIFT LOWER IF SUPPLY INCREASES AS EXPECTED
UREA
Except for India the international urea market has gone into hibernation with Christmas celebrations looking to take centre stage with little or no activity in major markets like Brazil, NOLA/US, and Europe. As has been pointed out before, India alone cannot carry the urea market, and we now see urea prices drifting across the board. Massive floods in Thailand, Vietnam and north Sumatra in Indonesia plus major typhoons in the Philippines are contributing to lack of demand.
Egypt offers to European markets are at around the USD 450-455 PMT mark. Brazil is being offered down to USD 405 PMT CFR with bids coming in sub USD 400 PMT CFR. Algeria has sold some cargoes on formula pricing notably to Brazil.
Producers and traders are now preparing to ship urea to the latest IPL tender. Market rumours indicate that China might ship as much as 7 cargoes, or some 350 KT, others say as many as 10 cargoes covering 500 KT! Net backs around the USD 395 PMT mark. If any of the Chinese export levels are true it appears to become a logistical nightmare since no producer in China can fill a vessel on his own due to the export quotas issued in smaller quantities to many producers. Compliance with CIQ rules and regulations will also be an issue since cargoes can only be shipped to nominated destinations and it is unlikely that the armada of vessels going to India will have India CIQ destinations.
In a surprise move it appears that as many as 7 cargoes will be loaded from Vietnam. The backdrop could be that flooding has ruined the domestic market with soil erosion a big issue in the Mekong Delta.
Malaysia is on target to ship 3 cargoes to India. The Middle East supply to India is expected to surpass 500 KT since netbacks to other major markets is far less than what India can provide.
In China the daily production of urea fluctuated in November. There was a significant increase in production during the first half of the month, while new maintenance activities increased in the middle period. Production gradually resumed towards the end of the month. From November 1 to 27, the daily production of urea ranged from 189,000 to 206,000 tons, with the lowest daily production on November 1 and the highest on November 14. The average daily production for the period from January 1 to 27 was 199,000 tons. It is projected that production in November 2025 will be 5.97 million tons, an increase of approximately 300,000 tons compared to the same period in 2024, slightly higher than the production in October. The total projected production for the period from January to November 2025 is 65.12 million tons, which is expected to be 4.43 million tons higher than the same period in 2024.
Indonesia year to October urea exports have hit 1.43m. tonnes, marginally surpassing calendar year exports for 2023 and 2024. Export volumes for the first nine months are up 10% or 134,000t on those in 2024 and well above the 956,000t exported over the same period in 2023. While key markets, such as Australia and the Philippines, have taken reduced volumes, sales to India are up significantly. Sales in 2024 were negligible compared to the 700,000t sold via purchasing tenders so far this year. For October alone, 179,000t were placed in India. Further volumes have been placed for November onwards shipments. Australia took 253,000t versus 578,000t in the first nine months of 2024. The Philippines has received 137,000t versus 271,000t a year ago. October exports were 204,000t compared to 66,000t in 2024 and 118,000t in 2023.
The outlook for the urea price towards the end of 2025 is bearish and will only bounce back once other major markets outside of India start buying.
PHOSPHATES
The processed phosphate market is struggling to stem the reduction in prices on all products. Several DAP and MAP price benchmarks fell further this week amid limited interest from buyers, and a bearish tone pervaded the prompt spot market. Buyers are avoiding phosphate purchases due to poor affordability relative to downstream commodities, though sellers are seeking to limit price falls, particularly as upstream sulphur prices have been increasing steeply. This is in contradiction to substantially increased sulphur prices and ammonia prices which makes production cost of DAP and MAP increase. Abu Dhabi’s National Oil Company (ADNOC) set its official sulphur price (OSP) for December at $495/t FOB, according to multiple market sources.
The price reflects an $80/t increase from the November OSP of $415/t FOB. The new price surpasses the June 2022 peak of $485/t FOB, although it is still well short of the October 2008 record of $580/t FOB.
Prior OSPs were set at $324/t FOB in October, $285/t FOB in September, $265/t in August and July. Sulphur accounts for around 35-40% of raw materials costs in making DAP and MAP.
Yara and Mosaic agreed to December's Tampa ammonia contract at $650/t CFR, a rollover from the previous month. Imports from Trinidad still face a 15% tariff when entering the US. For December cargoes an effective tariff premium of $97.50/t remains in place, reflecting a theoretical duty-paid value of $747.50/t.
No demand in Argentina on DAP with buyers hinting at USD 650 PMT CFR. A price of $650 PMT CFR Argentina would reflect a more typical premium over MAP prices in Brazil, which were last assessed at $630-640 PMT CFR, down from as high as USD 750 PMT CFR just a couple of months ago. Demand in Brazil is suffering from affordability and seasonality.
The last confirmed DAP/MAP sales to Argentina were concluded at around $750pt CFR several weeks ago.
India DAP import demand is still limited from higher stocks although these are being eroded on high domestic sales for the Rabi season.
No new DAP deals are yet reported this week. Reports continue to suggest offers for December loading from Russia/Saudi Arabia at $685-690 PMT CFR and unconfirmed offers for prompt 50,000t Chinese tonnes as low as $675 PMT CFR.
Highest bids have yet to be clarified with several buyers sidelined and some indications of bids no higher than $670 PMT CFR.
On 27 November, Ma’aden reported it sold 60,000t DAP for December loading to an Indian buyer – believed to be IPL – in the high $680s PMT CFR, down from latest activity at $695-699 PMT CFR.
The India DAP price dropped an average $120 PMT in the three months ending November.
Market participants suggest high DAP demand is being seen in the Rabi season with November sales as high as 1.6Mt from 1.5Mt while November NP/NPK sales are initially indicated at 1.5Mt from 1.65Mt in November 2024. The switch is understood to be due to recent increases in the NP/NPK maximum retail prices in India through 2025 while farmer DAP prices have remained stable.
No new DAP deals are confirmed for Pakistan this week with continued reports of a possible 45-50,000t formula deal to a consortium of buyers including PakArab from OCP for December loading.
Three weeks ago, Fauji also purchased a 45,000t DAP/TSP cargo from OCP for late November/early December loading and January arrival under formula prices. The buyer confirmed the deal on 12 November.
Discussions are also rumoured to be ongoing between Pakistan buyers and Saudi Arabia over at least one DAP cargo for December loading.
Most sources indicate offers remain above $700pt cfr, while bids are no higher than $690pt cfr. Some buyers indicate bids well lower under expectations of further declines in India.
Pakistan’s DAP prices are still pegged at $690-700pt cfr.
Pakistan’s domestic DAP sales prices are now reported down to PKR13,500 per bag ($955pt equivalent) after further declines in offers to try and spur on lacking demand. This is down from roughly PKR14,000 per bag two or three weeks ago.
OCP exported 10.45Mt phosphate fertilisers in the first ten months of 2025, a 3.7% rise yr-on-yr from 10.08Mt, according to the latest Office Des Changes data.
October export volumes slumped 23% yr-on-yr to 837,198t from 1.1Mt. This followed average exports of 1.15Mt per month in the third quarter 2025 and June exports at 1.2-1.3Mt.
Though yet to be confirmed, the Jan-Oct exports are understood to include a rise in TSP exports to roughly 3.0Mt from 2.1Mt, a rise in DAP/MAP exports to 6.2Mt from 6.06Mt, an increase in NPK exports to roughly 800,000t from 673,458t, and a slump in NP/NPS exports to around 425,000t from 1.1Mt.
January through December 2024 exports reached a record 12.37Mt, up 13% yr-on-yr from 10.95Mt in the same period 2023 and 30% higher than 9.52Mt in 2022. These volumes were 1Mt above the 11.3Mt OCP exported in 2020, the previous record.
POTASH
Global potash prices were broadly stable this week, with the most notable movement in Brazil, where spot values firmed slightly. Elsewhere, markets remained quiet, using last week’s early Chinese contract settlement as a reference point rather than a fresh driver. Last week, a major Chinese importing consortium settled the 2026 MOP import contract with FSS, the trading arm of Uralkali, at $348/t CFR. The deal was concluded earlier than most market participants had expected and is now serving as a key benchmark for contract and spot discussions in Asia. Producers view the China level, and the forthcoming India settlement as defining a price floor, but buyers remain cautious and are not chasing higher numbers. With the China term in place, attention now shifts to New Delhi ahead of the Fertiliser Association of India’s conference, where India is expected to finalise its 2026 contract. Brazil was the main focus this week. Spot prices moved into a $350-360/t CFR range, with $350/t CFR still achievable in negotiations, representing a firming from last week’s $345- 355/t CFR levels. For December shipments, offers around $360/t CFR have been heard, while two major producers confirmed January offers at $370/t CFR, including a previously reported 100,000 t package. Additional indications circulated at $355-365/t CFR, and $345/t CFR is no longer treated as a viable base case. There are effectively no December loadings, beyond product moved for customs/warehouse positioning; the active market is now concentrated on Q1, with some structure emerging around $370/t CFR for January and about $380/t CFR for March. In Southeast Asia, standard and granular MOP prices were largely unchanged, and the market remained subdued. Recent Malaysian tenders for standard MOP were awarded at $365-375/t CFR for 2,000-5,000 t parcels, while Indonesia’s latest granular tender attracted offers between $384-420/t CFR, reinforcing a regional working range of $380-400/t CFR. Overall, the market is quiet with limited new demand as the holiday period approaches. In northwest Europe, the tone was similarly weak. Potash prices were flat for the seventh consecutive week, with standard-grade MOP assessed at €335-350/t CIF and granular at €360-370/t CIF. Buyers continue to complain about the price premium relative to fundamentals, but ample supply and poor spot demand have so far prevented any upward move. Some participants expect prices to drift lower over the coming months. In the US, after the Thanksgiving period, trade picked up, but MOP prices declined. Market participants continue to discuss the scope for further downside, but actual transactions have not yet broken prevailing benchmarks below.
Potash prices are expected to decline due to increased capacity, leading to more supply.
AMMONIA
The global ammonia market appears to have stabilised after a sustained period of price rises driven by an acute supply crunch. There are increasing signs that Gulf Coast Ammonia in the US is producing well and that is expected to bring downward pressure on prices in the weeks ahead. Some confidence is building that GCA may indeed load as much as 100,000 t ammonia in December, although not all suggest this is likely and the producer could not be reached for comment this week. The Tampa ammonia contract for December was agreed at a rollover from November. Few expected an increase this month and most point to a lower settlement for January, depending on the supply picture. Spot sales suggested last week from the Middle East as high as $540/t FOB could still not be confirmed. Prices in Southeast Asia, the Far East and India gained more than in other markets and talk of ammonia values peaking is now commonplace, with supply slated to return at Ma’aden’s MPC plant in Saudi Arabia and production also expected from Woodside’s plant in Texas for the end of the year. Trammo confirmed a spot purchase from Parna Raya in Indonesia at $480/t FOB, pushing up the Southeast Asia export benchmark to its highest since early December 2023. Northwest European prices are the highest since February 2023 and the benchmark has advanced an average of $258/t, or 41%, from a low this year of $435/t CFR amid a variety of global supply failures. Demand for imported cargoes in Europe is low ahead of the CBAM start-date. Middle East prices were unchanged at an average price of $500/t FOB; the index is now also at its highest since December 2023. It seems likely a trader may have paid beyond $500/t FOB for spot tonnes from the region, but no confirmation was forthcoming. Sales from Sabic and Qafco have been suggested at around $540/t FOB, although these trades are now unlikely to be repeatable if confirmed. The market remains in need of supply from Woodside’s Beaumont plant and confirmation that GCA has stabilised production. Should production in Trinidad or the Middle East also return sooner than the market currently expects, prices may slide into the New Year. Conversely, the market will remain elevated should supply disappoint.
Ammonia prices have the potential to weaken significantly in the coming weeks, but the market needs greater certainty over the supply picture. Substantial new supply is expected but there remain questions over timing. Prices will remain firm until the outlook is clearer
IPL has signed letters of intent (LoIs) to buy a total of 1.56015 million t of urea at $419.90/t CFR India’s West Coast and $418.40/t CFR India’s East Coast under the tender closed on 20 November 2025. This is almost 940,000 t less than the company initially requested but is still much more than RCF got under its previous tender closed on 15 October 2025. The total quantity has to leave loading ports for both Indian coasts by 15 January 2026.
According to the up-to-date information, not 200,000—300,000 t but around 350,000 t of urea are expected to ship from China under this tender. Furthermore, part of the volume may still include about 300,000—400,000 t of Russian urea from the Baltic Sea region, 500,000—600,000 t of the product from the Middle East and the rest from Southeast Asia and Nigeria.
The Indian market may see the next urea purchase tender closer to early January 2026 or so, according to players.
Nothing has been heard of offers under RCF’s tender closed on 1 December 2025. Reminder: RCF, on behalf of the Department of Fertilizers (DoF), wants to buy urea under a long-term agreement for a period of three years with an option to extend for another two years, with a minimum supply volume of 2.5 million t of urea per contract year. Some market players believe that, as the offers will be valid until 1 March 2026, there is ample time for negotiations. Others think that India may not sign the long-term agreement and instead be more active in issuing urea purchase tenders in the spot market next year.
Morning. Int'l paper activity focusing on AG y'day: Dec traded low-$390s, Jan $380 (+$5 from last week/last done), and Feb at $5 discount. In Nola, Dec/Jan urea paper traded $355 with Mar values at $10-$14 premium. Mkts framed:
AG
Dec $386//$393 – traded $391s
Jan $375//$383 – traded $380
Feb $367//$378 – traded $375
Cfr Brazil
Dec $391//$400
Jan $375//$383 – traded $379
Feb $375//$380
Q3 $375//$390
Egypt
Dec $425//$455
Jan $390//$420
Brazil Amsul
Dec $178/$198
Jan $175//$200
May/Jun $180 buyer
Nola
Paper:
Dec $352//$357 – traded $355, $356
Jan $355//$360 – traded $355
Feb $358//$363 – traded $361, $360
Mar $360//$370 – traded $365, 368, $369
Apr $365//$372
May $358//$365
Jun $350//$360
UAN Nola
Dec $290//$315
Jan $285//$320
Feb $280//$320
DAP Nola
Dec $650//$690
Jan $620//$632 – traded $630
Feb $620//$630 – traded $630
Q1 $620//$640
MAP Brazil
Dec $620//$640
Q1 620 Buyer
OCP offering DAP at $760/t cfr Spain and $757/t cfr Ravenna
supposedly around $700/t fob but NCIC denies this and says $740-750/t fob. 😂