China's long-awaited urea export quota has landed. The numbers are bigger than many expected, and the devil, as always, is in the detail. Total allocation this round sits at approximately 2.8 million MT, split across urea producers (1.5-1.6 million MT), reserve or storage enterprises (800,000 MT), and a mix of phosphate fertiliser plants and designated aid programmes accounting for the balance, with some portions still unconfirmed. Named enterprise quotas give a sense of where the volume sits: Yuntianhua leads at 160,000 MT, followed by Yanhua and Yihua at 100,000 MT each, Ruixing and Xinlianxin at 80,000 MT each, and a handful of smaller players rounding out the list.
The mechanics matter too. Up to half the quota may be released in June, with the remainder following from July, and the whole process must be wrapped within two months. Factory inspection is back on the agenda this time around, which adds a layer of logistical friction that exporters will need to plan around.
Then there are the floor prices. Prilled urea is pegged at USD 660/MT FOB China, granular at USD 670/MT, with an additional USD 20/MT premium applicable on sales to India. A Chinese seller circulating in the market this week suggested their own network could coordinate close to 300,000 MT if buyers come forward with target prices.
Here is the problem. The market does not want to pay. Traders are near-unanimous that the floor prices are simply too high relative to where global urea values currently sit, and buyer interest at these levels is essentially absent. It is a remarkable turn. Only weeks ago the trade was anxious about whether China would release anything meaningful at all. Now the quota is real, the volumes are substantial, and nobody is rushing to lift an offer. Sentiment has reversed faster than most would have predicted. Whether Beijing blinks on the floor price, or whether buyers eventually cave as availability elsewhere tightens, is the question that will define the next leg of the nitrogen market.
The domestic ammonium sulphate market is heading lower and there is little on the horizon to arrest the slide. Compound fertiliser buyers are in wait-and-see mode, replenishing only when they have to, and agricultural demand at the terminal level is providing no support whatsoever. The mood is cautious at best.
The real driver is urea. Prices have dropped sharply in the international market and, as the nitrogen benchmark, that weakness feeds directly into amsul sentiment. When your main substitute gets cheaper, buyers stop chasing your product. The "buy on the way up, not on the way down" mentality has taken hold and it is difficult to see what breaks that psychology in the near term.
On exports, enquiries for new business are thin. Brazil has not come to the market in any meaningful way and existing shipments are rolling on previously committed orders only. Short-term direction remains down.
The domestic auction results from 26 May tell the same story. Yulong Petrochemical cleared 1,000 MT at CNY 1,220-1,225/MT, down CNY 75-80/MT on the previous round. Shandong Hongxu placed 3,000 MT of MMA-grade at CNY 1,005/MT. Anhui Huaibei Linhuan Coking sold at CNY 1,115/MT, down CNY 85/MT. Lining Linggang's 500 MT cleared at CNY 1,030/MT, a drop of CNY 350/MT. Guangxi Chiji Steel listed at CNY 1,200/MT, down CNY 300/MT. Shenhua Ningxia ran three lots through auction and two failed to find buyers entirely, with only the Methanol warehouse parcel clearing at its CNY 930/MT starting price.
Caprolactam-grade prices are also retreating across the board. Hualu Hengsheng bulk is at CNY 1,700/MT, down CNY 30/MT. Cangzhou Xuyang is at CNY 1,700/MT, down CNY 50/MT. Dongming Xuyang at CNY 1,660/MT, down CNY 40/MT. Anhui Anqing dropped CNY 100/MT to CNY 1,240/MT. Anhui Shuguang fell a steep CNY 290/MT to CNY 1,000/MT. Shanxi Lanhua is offline for maintenance and quoting nothing. The top of the range sits with Guangxi Hengyi at CNY 1,760/MT and Baling Hengyi at CNY 1,730/MT, both holding for now, but the direction of travel across the sector is clear.
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<h1 data-path-to-node="0">CHINA FERTILIZER MORNING BRIEFING</h1>
<p data-path-to-node="1"><b data-path-to-node="1" data-index-in-node="0">26 May 2026</b></p>
<h3 data-path-to-node="2">1. Urea</h3>
<p data-path-to-node="3">The domestic urea market maintained a stable and firm tone yesterday, with lower-priced regions reporting satisfactory volume clearance. Late afternoon trading was supported by emerging export quota updates, which lifted market psychology and injected renewed purchasing enthusiasm into trading circles. While downstream spot demand remains thin, current sentiment is heavily reactive to macro regulatory developments. Expect short-term price levels to trace close to current ranges, with close attention paid to manufacturing factory sales velocity and policy updates.</p>
<h3 data-path-to-node="5">2. Synthetic Ammonia</h3>
<p data-path-to-node="6">The market registered steady gains over the weekend extending into yesterday, driven primarily by strong pricing dynamics in Hubei Province. While southern positions climbed sharply, northern regions experienced narrower upward adjustments. However, as local technical corrections emerged alongside the return of previously offline production facilities, the upward momentum began to stall. Downstream contract buying remains uninspiring, indicating that the ceiling for further price hikes is capped. Traders should monitor the potential impact of coal price volatility resulting from the recent operational issues across Shanxi coal mines.</p>
<h3 data-path-to-node="8">3. Ammonium Sulphate</h3>
<p data-path-to-node="9">A pronounced sense of caution dominated the market yesterday. The weakness in international urea values combined with persistent domestic oversupply continues to suppress regional purchasing appetite. With downstream risk aversion remaining highly active, the near-term outlook points toward a correction where historically high prices will continue to soften.</p>
<h3 data-path-to-node="11">4. Ammonium Chloride</h3>
<p data-path-to-node="12">The market remained soft yesterday with quiet trading floors. Supply side volumes expanded as several co-bleaching facilities resumed operations following temporary maintenance halts. Conversely, consumption patterns were weak, with compound fertilizer manufacturers strictly prioritizing existing stock liquidation over new procurement. Distributors have largely moved to the sidelines to adopt a wait-and-see posture, keeping new spot orders minimal. Expect the sluggish tone to persist through the week.</p>
<h3 data-path-to-node="14">5. Potash</h3>
<p data-path-to-node="15">Domestic trading remained exceptionally quiet yesterday. While merchant offers held flat on paper, actual transaction volumes were thin. Imported 62% white potassium was quoted between <b data-path-to-node="15" data-index-in-node="185">CNY 3,150 and 3,550 / metric ton</b>, with final numbers subject to heavy negotiation. Sulphuric acid potash manufacturers maintained steady list prices, but physical sales velocity continues to crawl.</p>
<h3 data-path-to-node="17">6. Phosphate Fertilizer</h3>
<ul data-path-to-node="18">
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="18,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="18,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP):</b> The market held stable yesterday, with Hubei 55% powder resting at <b data-path-to-node="18,0,0" data-index-in-node="97">CNY 4,200 to 4,250 / metric ton</b> on a negotiable basis. Downstream compound fertilizer factories are showing minimal procurement interest, leaving order books thin. Manufacturers relying on merchant intermediates face intense production cost pressure, which is forcing sector-wide operational cutbacks.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="18,1,0"><b data-path-to-node="18,1,0" data-index-in-node="0">Diammonium Phosphate (DAP):</b> The trading floor was subdued yesterday as localized agricultural demand remains dormant. Blenders continue to push out procurement timelines as they hold out for the arrival of lower-priced, affordable sulphur resources. The market is firmly locked in a consolidation phase, and near-term trading activity will remain constrained.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 data-path-to-node="20">7. Compound Fertilizers</h3>
<p data-path-to-node="21">The domestic complex remained soft but stable over the last 24 hours. Widespread rain across multiple agricultural zones has delayed the progress of summer top-dressing replenishment orders. However, because raw material nitrogen values have rebounded, manufacturers face a solid cost floor, leaving them very little room to offer flexible commercial discounts or price concessions. Expect a narrow, range-bound fluctuation to persist in the near term as factories wait for seasonal replenishment volumes to force a direction.</p>
</div>
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<h1 data-path-to-node="0">MIDDLE EAST GEOPOLITICAL TRACKING BRIEF</h1>
<p data-path-to-node="1"><b data-path-to-node="1" data-index-in-node="0">26 May 2026</b></p>
<h3 data-path-to-node="2">1. Iranian Domestic & Military Developments</h3>
<ul data-path-to-node="3">
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="3,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="3,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">Political Continuity:</b> Larijani has been re-elected as the Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly. In addition, former Health Ministry spokesperson Kianush Jahanpur clarified that Supreme Leader Khamenei was discharged from the hospital on 1 March following routine treatment.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="3,1,0"><b data-path-to-node="3,1,0" data-index-in-node="0">Infrastructure & Connectivity:</b> Domestic aviation is normalising with twenty national airports resuming standard flight schedules. Concurrently, the Iranian President has officially ordered the full restoration of international internet access.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="3,2,0"><b data-path-to-node="3,2,0" data-index-in-node="0">Air Defence Activations:</b> Continuous explosions were reported near the critical export hub of Bandar Abbas, though state media downplayed the incidents. Concurrently, air defence sirens sounded over Qeshm Island as Iran announced the deployment of a new tactical air defence network.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="3,3,0"><b data-path-to-node="3,3,0" data-index-in-node="0">Persian Gulf Engagement:</b> Iranian state media reports the successful deployment of the new "Arash Archers" air defence system, which allegedly intercepted and shot down an enemy drone over the Persian Gulf.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 data-path-to-node="5">2. Strait of Hormuz Transit Status</h3>
<ul data-path-to-node="6">
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="6,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="6,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">Phased Reopening Plans:</b> Qatari state media reports that the Strait of Hormuz will undergo a structured, phased reopening. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy confirmed that 32 permitted commercial vessels, including oil tankers and container ships, successfully transited the waterway over a 24-hour window.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="6,1,0"><b data-path-to-node="6,1,0" data-index-in-node="0">First Japanese Transit:</b> Highlighting a cautious return of international tonnage, the first Japanese-flagged crude oil tanker has safely arrived via the Strait since the outbreak of hostiles.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="6,2,0"><b data-path-to-node="6,2,0" data-index-in-node="0">Maritime Fees:</b> Iranian authorities clarified that the state is strictly collecting standard "navigation service fees" from commercial vessels passing through the corridor.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 data-path-to-node="8">3. US-Iran Ceasefire & Nuclear Negotiations</h3>
<ul data-path-to-node="9">
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="9,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="9,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">Diplomatic Breakthrough Looming:</b> Regional media outlets, including Al Jazeera, report that Washington and Tehran have reached a concrete understanding regarding unfreezing Iranian assets overseas, with a formal announcement potentially imminent.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="9,1,0"><b data-path-to-node="9,1,0" data-index-in-node="0">Phasing Timelines:</b> According to the Nikkei Shimbun, the draft framework dictates that Iran will fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days of signing a final text, alongside a 60-day extension of the active regional ceasefire.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="9,2,0"><b data-path-to-node="9,2,0" data-index-in-node="0">Remaining Friction Points:</b> While Donald Trump stated that bilateral negotiations are progressing smoothly, the Iranian Foreign Ministry was more conservative. The Ministry spokesperson confirmed a broad structural framework exists but noted a critical lack of detail regarding the long-term management of the Strait, stating that no final Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has been inked.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="9,3,0"><b data-path-to-node="9,3,0" data-index-in-node="0">Nuclear & Sanctions Discrepancies:</b> Draft papers reveal that neither side has made firm, long-term commitments on the core nuclear issue yet. US media confirms delegates are working intensely in Doha, Qatar, to bridge significant phrasing differences regarding sanctions relief versus nuclear compliance.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 data-path-to-node="11">4. Israel & Regional Escalations</h3>
<ul data-path-to-node="12">
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="12,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="12,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">Lebanon Border Intensity:</b> Hostilities along the northern border continue to escalate. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) carried out widespread airstrikes hitting over 70 Hezbollah infrastructure targets in southern Lebanon, utilizing 85 precision munitions. The IDF sustained one fatality and one serious injury during ground operations.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="12,1,0"><b data-path-to-node="12,1,0" data-index-in-node="0">US Policy Alignment:</b> Per Axios, senior US officials disclosed that the Trump administration will actively back Israel in intensifying military strikes to neutralise Hezbollah threats in Lebanon.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="12,2,0"><b data-path-to-node="12,2,0" data-index-in-node="0">Abraham Accords & Diplomacy:</b> Donald Trump issued a renewed call for broader Middle Eastern participation in the Abraham Accords. However, Saudi Arabian sources noted that Riyadh's diplomatic stance regarding formal regularisation remains unchanged.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="12,3,0"><b data-path-to-node="12,3,0" data-index-in-node="0">Domestic Israel:</b> Locally, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir faced a joint condemnation from foreign ministers of eight allied nations, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned to court to offer further testimony in his ongoing corruption case.</p>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
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<h1 data-path-to-node="0">IRANIAN UREA MARKET INTELLIGENCE BRIEF</h1>
<p data-path-to-node="1"><b data-path-to-node="1" data-index-in-node="0">26 May 2026</b></p>
<h3 data-path-to-node="2">Executive Summary</h3>
<p data-path-to-node="3">Iranian urea producers have adjusted their official pricing downward by <b data-path-to-node="3" data-index-in-node="72">$50 USD / metric ton</b> compared to the previous week, establishing a new baseline of <b data-path-to-node="3" data-index-in-node="155">$560 USD / metric ton</b> as of 16 May. This correction comes amidst significant production line volatility, though multiple state and private entities are coming to the market with sizeable spot volumes and upcoming export tenders for May/June laycans.</p>
<h3 data-path-to-node="5">Producer Export Offers & Tenders</h3>
<ul data-path-to-node="6">
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="6,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="6,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">Pardis & Shiraz:</b> Coordinated export availability of <b data-path-to-node="6,0,0" data-index-in-node="52">30,000 to 60,000 metric tons</b> for May/June shipment windows.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="6,1,0"><b data-path-to-node="6,1,0" data-index-in-node="0">MIS (Masjed Soleyman):</b> Substantial spot positions open, offering <b data-path-to-node="6,1,0" data-index-in-node="65">30,000 to 90,000 metric tons</b> for May/June loading.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="6,2,0"><b data-path-to-node="6,2,0" data-index-in-node="0">Kermanshah:</b> Preparing to issue an official export sales tender for <b data-path-to-node="6,2,0" data-index-in-node="67">30,000 to 45,000 metric tons</b> of granular urea for prompt shipment.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="6,3,0"><b data-path-to-node="6,3,0" data-index-in-node="0">Khorasan:</b> Offering a split <b data-path-to-node="6,3,0" data-index-in-node="27">15,000 metric ton</b> lot of standard prilled urea packed in 50 kg bags for prompt loading:</p>
<ul data-path-to-node="6,3,1">
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="6,3,1,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="6,3,1,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">5,000 metric tons:</b> Priced at <b data-path-to-node="6,3,1,0,0" data-index-in-node="29">$520 USD / metric ton</b> (Ex-Warehouse).</p>
</li>
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="6,3,1,1,0"><b data-path-to-node="6,3,1,1,0" data-index-in-node="0">10,000 metric tons:</b> Priced at <b data-path-to-node="6,3,1,1,0" data-index-in-node="30">$560 USD / metric ton</b> (FOB Bandar Abbas).</p>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 data-path-to-node="8">Operational Status & Production Outages</h3>
<p data-path-to-node="9">The domestic production landscape remains highly fragmented due to ongoing technical disruptions and maintenance turnarounds:</p>
<table data-path-to-node="10">
<thead>
<tr>
<td><strong>Manufacturing Complex</strong></td>
<td><strong>Current Operating Status</strong></td>
<td><strong>Detail / Breakdown</strong></td>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,1,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="10,1,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">Pardis</b></span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,1,1,0">Partially Active</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,1,2,0"><b data-path-to-node="10,1,2,0" data-index-in-node="0">One line has resumed</b> operations; two lines remain down.</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,2,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="10,2,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">Shiraz (Prilled)</b></span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,2,1,0">Down</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,2,2,0">Production offline.</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,3,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="10,3,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">Shiraz (Granular)</b></span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,3,1,0">Active</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,3,2,0">Running normal operations.</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,4,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="10,4,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">KPIC (Kermanshah)</b></span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,4,1,0">Active</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,4,2,0">Running normal operations.</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,5,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="10,5,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">Lordegan</b></span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,5,1,0">Down</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,5,2,0">Production offline.</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,6,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="10,6,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">MIS</b></span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,6,1,0">Active</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,6,2,0">Running normal operations.</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,7,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="10,7,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">Khorasan</b></span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,7,1,0">Active</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,7,2,0">Running normal operations.</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,8,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="10,8,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">Razi</b></span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,8,1,0">Down</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,8,2,0">Production offline.</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,9,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="10,9,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">Hengam</b></span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,9,1,0">Technical Outage</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="10,9,2,0"><b data-path-to-node="10,9,2,0" data-index-in-node="0">Ammonia unit has resumed</b> production; urea units remain completely offline due to technical faults.</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
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<h1 data-path-to-node="0">GLOBAL SULPHUR MARKET BRIEF</h1>
<p data-path-to-node="1"><b data-path-to-node="1" data-index-in-node="0">26 May 2026</b></p>
<h3 data-path-to-node="2">Executive Summary</h3>
<p data-path-to-node="3">The global sulphur market has entered a temporary period of consolidation, with spot pricing holding firm at elevated levels. Despite a minor shift in market psychology driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical headlines, physical availability remains heavily constrained across all major trade hubs.</p>
<h3 data-path-to-node="5">Core Price Indices</h3>
<ul data-path-to-node="6">
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="6,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="6,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">FOB Middle East:</b> Granular spot prices held unchanged at <b data-path-to-node="6,0,0" data-index-in-node="56">$740 to $765 USD / metric ton</b>. Trading liquidity slowed down ahead of the upcoming Eid holiday closures.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="6,1,0"><b data-path-to-node="6,1,0" data-index-in-node="0">CFR China:</b> Import values remained steady at <b data-path-to-node="6,1,0" data-index-in-node="44">$950 to $1,000 USD / metric ton</b>, reflecting sustained high replacement costs despite softer domestic downstream sentiment.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 data-path-to-node="8">Geopolitical Headlines vs. Domestic China Dynamics</h3>
<p data-path-to-node="9">Market sentiment in China experienced a slight pullback following public comments from US President Donald Trump regarding potential diplomatic engagement with Iran. Speculation surrounding a resolution that could eventually reopen the Strait of Hormuz prompted a cautious reaction in the domestic merchant market.</p>
<p data-path-to-node="10">Consequently, Chinese ex-works pricing slipped to <b data-path-to-node="10" data-index-in-node="50">CNY 7,360 to 7,420 / metric ton</b>, following a handful of small-scale river barge transactions over the weekend.</p>
<h3 data-path-to-node="12">Supply Fundamentals & Port Inventories</h3>
<p data-path-to-node="13">Despite shifting sentiment, physical supply constraints show no material signs of easing. The structural drawdown trend continues to dominate, driven by the ongoing conflict involving Iran:</p>
<ul data-path-to-node="14">
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="14,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="14,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">Chinese Port Stocks:</b> Inventories fell further this week, dropping to approximately <b data-path-to-node="14,0,0" data-index-in-node="83">1.00 million metric tons</b>, down from 1.03 million metric tons the previous week.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="14,1,0"><b data-path-to-node="14,1,0" data-index-in-node="0">Logistical Stress:</b> Middle Eastern supply corridors remain severely disrupted. Trade participants note that even in the event of a political breakthrough, normalising vessel transits and clearing current shipping backlogs in the Strait of Hormuz will face significant lag times.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 data-path-to-node="16">Global Trade Flows & Outlook</h3>
<p data-path-to-node="17">The lack of prompt availability continues to support high price floors internationally.</p>
<ul data-path-to-node="18">
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="18,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="18,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">North American Supply:</b> Demand for US Gulf and Canadian tonnes remains exceptionally strong, with buyers in Asia and Africa competing heavily for arbitrary export volumes.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="18,1,0"><b data-path-to-node="18,1,0" data-index-in-node="0">Downstream Competition:</b> Cross-sector procurement remains aggressive, as industrial consumers across the commercial fertilizer, battery materials, and hydrometallurgical metals processing sectors compete for limited spot liquid and solid cargoes.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p data-path-to-node="19"><b data-path-to-node="19" data-index-in-node="0">Conclusion:</b> The sulphur complex remains highly reactive to geopolitical headlines, causing paper sentiment to shift far quicker than actual supply-demand balances. While the market has paused after a period of intense volatility, tight structural supply will continue to support historically high price levels in the short term.</p>
</div>
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<p data-path-to-node="0">Here is the updated market intelligence report, restructured into a professional, clean corporate format that is fully optimised for direct copy-pasting straight into Microsoft Word without formatting or font alignment issues.</p>
<h1 data-path-to-node="2">CHINA UREA EXPORT MARKET INTELLIGENCE BRIEF</h1>
<h3 data-path-to-node="3">EXECUTIVE SUMMARY</h3>
<p data-path-to-node="4">The China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association (CNFIA) is actively advancing administrative preparations ahead of an upcoming industry assembly, signaling a highly anticipated shift in regional trade policy. The current state of market intelligence can be categorized across four distinct levels of certainty.</p>
<h3 data-path-to-node="6">LEVEL 1: CONFIRMED MARKET FACT (CERTAIN)</h3>
<ul data-path-to-node="7">
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="7,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="7,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">Allocation Distribution:</b> It is now factually confirmed that a select number of domestic urea producers have officially received their designated export allocations.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 data-path-to-node="9">LEVEL 2: HIGH PROBABILITY INDICATIONS (LIKELY TRUE)</h3>
<ul data-path-to-node="10">
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="10,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="10,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">CNFIA Policy Summit:</b> The China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association has scheduled a pivotal briefing meeting for this coming Thursday to align trade practices.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="10,1,0"><b data-path-to-node="10,1,0" data-index-in-node="0">Minimum Price Floors:</b> Base export price thresholds are highly likely to be enforced at the following levels:</p>
<ul data-path-to-node="10,1,1">
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="10,1,1,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="10,1,1,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">Prilled Urea:</b> $660 USD / metric ton (FOB Bulk)</p>
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<li>
<p data-path-to-node="10,1,1,1,0"><b data-path-to-node="10,1,1,1,0" data-index-in-node="0">Granular Urea:</b> $670 USD / metric ton (FOB Bulk)</p>
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<li>
<p data-path-to-node="10,1,1,2,0"><b data-path-to-node="10,1,1,2,0" data-index-in-node="0">Premium Destinations:</b> An additional +$20 USD / metric ton premium is anticipated on all volumes routed directly to India (yielding an effective floor of $680 USD and $690 USD respectively).</p>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 data-path-to-node="12">LEVEL 3: PROVISIONAL ASSESSMENTS (POSSIBLE)</h3>
<ul data-path-to-node="13">
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="13,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="13,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">Total Tonnage Framework:</b> Volumetric allocations under discussion suggest an initial commercial quota ceiling of <b data-path-to-node="13,0,0" data-index-in-node="112">1.5 million metric tons</b>.</p>
</li>
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<p data-path-to-node="13,1,0"><b data-path-to-node="13,1,0" data-index-in-node="0">Bilateral Government Volumes:</b> An additional <b data-path-to-node="13,1,0" data-index-in-node="44">400,000 metric tons</b> are potentially earmarked for strict Government-to-Government (G2G) assistance programs, primarily covering supply obligations to Pakistan and allied regional partners.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 data-path-to-node="15">LEVEL 4: UNVERIFIED RUMOURS (SPECULATION)</h3>
<ul data-path-to-node="16">
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="16,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="16,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">Administrative Details:</b> All alternative dates, unlisted manufacturer limits, and secondary regulatory mechanisms currently circulating via informal trade channels remain unverified speculation.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 data-path-to-node="18">REGULATORY AUDITS & OPERATIONAL PREPARATIONS</h3>
<p data-path-to-node="19">The CNFIA has initiated direct operational inquiries regarding active export customs clearance codes. This compliance review specifically targets major manufacturing enterprises that did not participate in outbound global trade during the previous calendar year.</p>
<p data-path-to-node="20">To date, several tier-one producing entities—including Yanhe and the Lu’an Group—have confirmed receipt of these regulatory inquiries as part of ongoing, pre-export administrative adjustments.</p>
<h3 data-path-to-node="22">SUMMARY MATRIX: PROPOSED CHINESE EXPORT BASELINES</h3>
<table data-path-to-node="23">
<thead>
<tr>
<td><strong>Product Classification</strong></td>
<td><strong>Base Export Floor Price</strong></td>
<td><strong>India Destination Price</strong></td>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><span data-path-to-node="23,1,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="23,1,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">Prilled Urea</b></span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="23,1,1,0">$660 USD / metric ton</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="23,1,2,0">$680 USD / metric ton</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span data-path-to-node="23,2,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="23,2,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">Granular Urea</b></span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="23,2,1,0">$670 USD / metric ton</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="23,2,2,0">$690 USD / metric ton</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p data-path-to-node="25"></p>
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China Daily 25th May 2026
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<h2 data-path-to-node="0">Urea</h2>
<p data-path-to-node="1">The domestic urea market continued to weaken last week. Demand growth was sluggish, and the market lacked upward momentum. Coupled with continuous declines in prices and rumours of exports, some low-priced supplies saw improved sales, and the market gradually stabilised. Currently, there are no clear positive stimuli, and the market’s bullish and bearish forces are locked in a stalemate. Future attention should focus on the preparations for summer fertilizer supplies, as it is likely that short-term urea prices will maintain a narrow range of fluctuations.</p>
<h2 data-path-to-node="3">Synthesis of Ammonia</h2>
<p data-path-to-node="4">As some ammonia production facilities halted operations for maintenance, the market shifted from sales to purchases, and downstream entities entered the market to take advantage of the downturn. Last week, the market in the main regions for synthesis of ammonia in China saw steady growth. Near the end of the week, there was a significant increase in the region of Hubei, which provided a positive boost to surrounding markets. Under the influence of regional coordination, nearby ammonia production facilities remained strongly inclined to further increase their prices. In addition to increased demand in some areas, the downstream sector in other regions remained cautious about taking on new orders. It is expected that the market will continue to show upward momentum in the short term.</p>
<h2 data-path-to-node="6">Ammonium Sulphate</h2>
<p data-path-to-node="7">The market for ammonium sulphate saw a clear downward trend last week. Due to the oversupply situation in the market and the uncertain policy environment, downstream buyers were cautious, and there was a strong sense of risk aversion. Without an upturn in demand, it is expected that the market for ammonium sulphate will remain weak and fluctuate in the short term.</p>
<h2 data-path-to-node="9">Ammonium Chloride</h2>
<p data-path-to-node="10">The domestic market for ammonium chloride was relatively weak last week. Downstream compound fertilizer companies experienced difficulties in receiving orders and had to stop production frequently. Additionally, the decline in urea negatively impacted the market for ammonium chloride. Overall, there were few inquiries from downstream customers. Companies producing ammonium chloride primarily sold their products on a one-to-one basis, with some offering guaranteed promotional policies. However, this was still unable to boost the enthusiasm of downstream customers to purchase. Short-term demand remained unchanged, and ammonium chloride continued to operate in a weak state.</p>
<h2 data-path-to-node="15">MOP</h2>
<p data-path-to-node="16">There was no significant improvement in the overall market for domestic potash last week. While some imported sources of potassium chloride were gradually replenished, market demand was limited, and new contract sales were not particularly active, resulting in a relatively weak trend. The manufacturers of sulphuric acid phosphate fertilizers faced significant pressure on costs, but sales at high prices were slow, and agricultural demand did not keep pace.</p>
<h2 data-path-to-node="18">MAP/DAP</h2>
<p data-path-to-node="19">Last week, the domestic MAP market remained stable with slight adjustments. In Hubei, the 55% powder was priced at 4,200 to 4,250 CNY per ton, with actual prices subject to negotiation. The raw material market prices remained high and rising, but the sulphur policies of the supply-guarantee enterprises continued to influence market sentiment. Coupled with the demand slowdown during the off-season, new orders were limited, and the market remained in a state of consolidation and observation.</p>
<p data-path-to-node="20">Meanwhile, the domestic DAP market also remained in a state of observation. Enterprise production loads remained low, with companies generally waiting for the arrival of affordable sulphur resources. Demand was weak, and new orders were limited. Market sentiment remained cautious, with operators adopting a wait-and-see approach. The market is expected to continue its current consolidation trend in the short term.</p>
<h2 data-path-to-node="22">Compound Fertilizers</h2>
<p data-path-to-node="23">The domestic compound fertilizer market continued its narrow range of fluctuations last week. Prices in some major production regions have softened. As an example, the mainstream factory price of 45% S (T15) is around 3,200 to 3,500 CNY per ton. The nitrogen fertilizer component in the raw materials remains loose, while the rest remains relatively stable. Despite the lack of support from costs and no significant improvement in downstream demand, sales have been sluggish. To stimulate sales, some companies have continued to offer flexible terms for negotiations. It is expected that the compound fertilizer market will remain stable in the short term.</p>
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<a href="https://www.staging.aquifert.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Aquifert-Shanxi-Market-Alert-May2026.pdf">Aquifert Shanxi Market Alert May2026</a>
Explosion in China, what does it mean for urea?
<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"><strong>China Domestic Morning Briefing | 22 May 2026</strong></p>
<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"><strong>Urea</strong> — A slight bounce after recent weakness, but don't read too much into it. Low-price areas are holding firm on accumulation. Export news is driving short-term trader buying, but downstream demand remains soft. No real upward catalyst in sight.</p>
<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"><strong>Synthetic Ammonia</strong> — Tightening. Hubei shutdowns, ammonia-to-export conversion, and reduced output are all squeezing supply. Producers are pushing to hold and raise prices, some bidding has firmed, and downstream buyers are dipping in at low levels. Expect near-term buoyancy.</p>
<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"><strong>Ammonium Sulphate</strong> — Weak and getting weaker. Oversupply, policy uncertainty, and cautious downstream sentiment are the story. No recovery expected short term.</p>
<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"><strong>Ammonium Chloride</strong> — Producers are desperate to move volume but can't find buyers. Compound fertiliser plants idling more. Inventory creeping up. Price guarantees from individual producers aren't moving the needle. This one stays soft.</p>
<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"><strong>Potassium Sulphate</strong> — Slow. Trader stocks are modest but demand is weak. Mannheim 52% powder trading CNY 4,200-4,350/t, deal by deal. Production costs rising but there's no appetite to push price through.</p>
<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"><strong>MAP</strong> — Value but no market. Hubei 55% powder quoted CNY 4,200-4,250/t. Downstream compound plants not buying. Cheap sulphur still overhanging sentiment. Cautious short term.</p>
<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"><strong>DAP</strong> — Subdued. Plants still waiting on affordable sulphur. Utilisation rates falling. Slow season demand is flat. Market expected to hold but no one's in a hurry to trade.</p>
<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"><strong>Compound Fertilisers</strong> — Weak but steady. Urea's stabilisation is providing a floor of sorts. Summer replenishment orders trickling through. Expect small fluctuations around stable with selective deal-by-deal negotiation.</p>
Chin Review: On May 22, the national market price of urea remained stable. Upstream quotations remained steady, new orders were not well received, demand from end-users was sluggish, and purchases primarily consisted of small, essential orders. Market sentiment was temporarily dominated by futures trading.
On May 22, 2026, the national daily production of urea was 206,100 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 82.17%. Overall, the market was operating weakly but steadily.
Flash News
May 22, 19:24:22
**[Liu Guozhong Emphasized During the Planning and Deployment of "Three Summer" Agricultural Work: Spare No Effort to Ensure a Successful Summer Harvest; Complete Summer Sowing and Summer Management Tasks with High Quality]** Liu Guozhong, Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, held a meeting at the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on the 22nd to analyze and assess the current grain production situation, as well as to arrange and deploy key tasks for the "Three Summer" period (summer harvest, summer sowing, and summer management).
Liu Guozhong emphasized that the "Three Summer" period is the busiest time of the year for farming. It is essential to manage every link and detail to ensure that every single grain of summer crop is safely gathered into granaries, and that summer sowing is fully completed in terms of acreage and crop variety.
Key directives include:
* **Weather & Field Management:** Continue to strengthen field management, meteorological forecasting, and early warning systems to fully prepare against risks like "continuous rainy weather during harvest" (lanchangyu).
* **Machinery & Logistics:** Organize cross-regional agricultural machinery operations, strengthen service guarantees for fuel and logistics, and strictly implement safety production measures. Enhance emergency response capabilities for agricultural machinery, fix shortcomings in grain drying capacities, and promote grain harvest loss reduction.
* **Market & Incentives:** Coordinate market-based procurement and policy-based storage of summer grain to protect farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain.
* **Sowing & Field Production:** Implement summer sowing acreage targets, improve sowing quality, and ensure full seedling emergence from a single sowing. Adhere to the integrated efficiency enhancement of high-quality farmland, superior seeds, advanced machinery, and effective farming methods, while deeply implementing actions to increase yield per unit area on a large scale.
* **Agricultural Inputs:** Ensure the stable supply and price of **fertilizers**, effectively meeting the fertilizer demand for agricultural production.
Liu Guozhong stressed that "Three Summer" production is critical to achieving the annual grain output targets. Local authorities must earnestly implement the shared responsibility of the Party and government for food security, organize and mobilize in advance, improve emergency response plans, and advance efficiently and orderly. All relevant departments must strengthen coordination and synergy, ensure smooth traffic and logistics, manage procurement and storage, and secure the supply of agricultural materials to guarantee the smooth execution of "Three Summer" production. (Xinhua News Agency)
<strong>Global Sulphur | IPL Tender Results | 22 May 2026</strong>
<strong>Prices</strong> Middle East: USD 740-765 FOB
India: USD 920-930 CFR
The IPL tender has closed and the numbers tell the story. Over 540,000t of offers hit the table, with pricing all over the place depending on timing and parcel size. June shipment commands a serious premium. August is where the relief valve is.
<strong>Offer summary:</strong>
<strong>Ameropa</strong> 35,000t at USD 1,295/t CFR east coast, late June/early July 2 x 3,000t at USD 1,400/t CFR west coast, late June/early July
<strong>CIFC</strong> 35,000t at USD 1,214/t CFR — June 35,000t at USD 1,170/t CFR — July 2 x 35,000t at USD 1,098/t CFR — August
<strong>Fert IQ</strong> 35,000t at USD 1,209/t CFR — June 35,000t at USD 1,065/t CFR — August
<strong>Kamal Bin Ali Trading</strong> ~593,000t at USD 565/t CFR, east and west coast coverage. Origin unknown. The market is talking about little else.
That Kamal Bin Ali number is the anomaly. USD 565/t CFR against a market sitting at USD 1,200/t-plus for near-term tonnes is not a rounding error. Origin clarity will determine whether this is a genuine offer or noise. Watch this space.
Elsewhere, the fundamentals haven't shifted. Spot liquidity is thin, consumers are largely covered near term, and no one wants to chase at these levels. But Chinese port stocks have dropped again to 1.04 million tonnes as phosphate producers keep pulling from coastal terminals. Domestic prices are edging up. The physical market is draining.
Hormuz remains a live concern. Flows are well below normal, freight risk is elevated, and the Ruwais sailings offered only partial comfort. US-Iran tensions are keeping everyone cautious.
Kazakhstan adds to the pressure. Kashagan maintenance pulls roughly 150,000t out of the market through mid-July. Bad timing.
The market has moved on from debating price. Q3 is about securing tonnes. If you are not covered, you are exposed.
China Price Indication:
ASN (26N+12S): USD 328 FOB
Amsul: USD 275 FOB
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<strong>Global Sulphur | 22 May 2026</strong>
<strong>Prices</strong> China: USD 925 CFR
Middle East: USD 753 FOB
The market is tight and it knows it. India's IPL tender has just closed and the numbers were stark — offers into India spiked as high as USD 1,295/t CFR. That's not a price, that's a distress signal. Q3 availability is now the only conversation that matters.
Spot liquidity is thin despite the headlines. Most consumers are covered near term and few want to chase at these levels. But Chinese port stocks have dropped again to 1.04 million tonnes as phosphate producers keep drawing down coastal inventories. Domestic Chinese prices are edging up to reflect it. The physical market is draining quietly underneath the surface noise.
Hormuz remains the structural wildcard. A few vessels are still transiting but flows are well below normal and freight risk stays elevated. The Ruwais sailings offered some comfort but nobody's relaxed. US-Iran tensions are keeping participants on edge.
Kazakhstan adds another layer. Kashagan maintenance kicks in soon and pulls roughly 150,000t of supply out of the market through mid-July. That's a meaningful chunk at exactly the wrong moment.
The bottom line is simple. This market has stopped arguing about price and started arguing about tonnes. Physical security of supply is now the only thing that matters heading into Q3 procurement. If you don't have cover, you're exposed.
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