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<p data-path-to-node="0"><b data-path-to-node="0" data-index-in-node="0">Market Update: CBOT Soybeans Turn Higher Amid Crude Oil Volatility and Fertilizer Crunch</b></p>
<p data-path-to-node="1">CBOT soybean futures recovered on Thursday, drawing strength from a firmer crude oil market. The oilseed complex remains highly sensitive to energy markets due to its role as a key biodiesel feedstock.</p>
<h3 data-path-to-node="2">Key Market Drivers:</h3>
<p data-path-to-node="3,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="3,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">Energy Volatility:</b> Crude oil prices continue to fluctuate as the market reacts to conflicting signals regarding a potential end to the three-month Iran war and the eventual re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, where maritime transit remains heavily restricted.</p>
<p data-path-to-node="3,1,0"><b data-path-to-node="3,1,0" data-index-in-node="0">Argentine Labour Disruption:</b> A brief strike by oilseed workers in Argentina threatened to disrupt crushing operations in the world’s top exporter of processed soy products before resolving hours later.</p>
<p data-path-to-node="3,2,0"><b data-path-to-node="3,2,0" data-index-in-node="0">Input Cost Pressures:</b> High fuel and fertilizer prices are squeezing farm margins. The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) confirmed it is investigating the recent spike in fertilizer costs driven by the conflict in Iran, compounding the pressure on growers already battling persistent drought in the US Plains.</p>
<h3 data-path-to-node="4">Closing July Settlements:</h3>
<p data-path-to-node="5,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="5,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">Soybeans:</b> Up 9-1/4 cents to settle at $11.94-1/2 per bushel.</p>
<p data-path-to-node="5,1,0"><b data-path-to-node="5,1,0" data-index-in-node="0">Soymeal:</b> Up USD 3.50 to end at USD 334.10 per short ton.</p>
<p data-path-to-node="5,2,0"><b data-path-to-node="5,2,0" data-index-in-node="0">Soyoil:</b> Up 1.44 cents to close at 76.70 cents per pound.</p>
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<h2 data-path-to-node="0">Market Overview: Fertilizer Throughput via the Port of Constanța (2020–2025)</h2>
<p data-path-to-node="1">The Port of Constanța serves as the primary maritime gateway for Romania's agricultural supply chain. Over the 2020–2025 period, total fertilizer import volumes entering Romania via Constanța have experienced substantial volatility, driven heavily by regional geopolitical shifts, high European energy costs, and erratic domestic production.</p>
<h2 data-path-to-node="3">Overall Throughput Trends</h2>
<p data-path-to-node="4">Total fertilizer volumes transiting the port have risen from 1,123,324 tonnes in 2020 to an all-time high of 2,225,816 tonnes in 2025, representing a 98.1% overall increase.</p>
<table data-path-to-node="5">
<thead>
<tr>
<td><strong>Year</strong></td>
<td><strong>Total Quantity (Metric Tonnes)</strong></td>
<td><strong>Year-on-Year Change (%)</strong></td>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><span data-path-to-node="5,1,0,0">2020 </span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="5,1,1,0">1,123,324</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="5,1,2,0">—</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span data-path-to-node="5,2,0,0">2021</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="5,2,1,0">1,438,757</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="5,2,2,0">+28.1%</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span data-path-to-node="5,3,0,0">2022</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="5,3,1,0">1,919,834</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="5,3,2,0">+33.4%</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span data-path-to-node="5,4,0,0">2023</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="5,4,1,0">1,456,435</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="5,4,2,0">-24.1%</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span data-path-to-node="5,5,0,0">2024</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="5,5,1,0">1,513,496</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="5,5,2,0">+3.9%</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span data-path-to-node="5,6,0,0">2025</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="5,6,1,0">2,225,816</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="5,6,2,0">+47.1%</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3 data-path-to-node="6">Key Inflexion Points</h3>
<ul data-path-to-node="7">
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="7,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="7,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">The 2022 Spike (+33.4%):</b> The outbreak of conflict in Ukraine disrupted historical regional overland trade lanes, shifting substantial agricultural and input logistics directly to the Black Sea shipping corridors and the Danube–Black Sea Canal.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="7,1,0"><b data-path-to-node="7,1,0" data-index-in-node="0">The 2023 Correction (-24.1%):</b> High global product pricing and extreme market volatility led to widespread demand destruction and destocking by agricultural distributors.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="7,2,0"><b data-path-to-node="7,2,0" data-index-in-node="0">The 2025 Import Surge (+47.1%):</b> Throughput surged to more than 2.22 million tonnes, setting a historical record for the port. This was primarily driven by the domestic supply vacuum left by Romania’s largest domestic manufacturing asset.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 data-path-to-node="9">Nutrient Breakdown: Nitrogen vs. Phosphates</h2>
<p data-path-to-node="10">A comparative analysis between straight Nitrogen (N) fertilizers and complex Phosphorus-bearing formulations (NP, NPK, and DAP) reveals shifting crop nutrition strategies and import dependencies.</p>
<table data-path-to-node="11">
<thead>
<tr>
<td><strong>Year</strong></td>
<td><strong>Nitrogen Fertilizers (Tonnes)</strong></td>
<td><strong>Phosphorus-Based/Complexes (Tonnes)</strong></td>
<td><strong>Product Split (N % / P-Complex %)</strong></td>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><span data-path-to-node="11,1,0,0">2020 </span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="11,1,1,0">450,974</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="11,1,2,0">672,347</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="11,1,3,0">40.1% / 59.9%</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span data-path-to-node="11,2,0,0">2021</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="11,2,1,0">677,584</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="11,2,2,0">761,109</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="11,2,3,0">47.1% / 52.9%</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span data-path-to-node="11,3,0,0">2022</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="11,3,1,0">1,133,603</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="11,3,2,0">786,012</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="11,3,3,0">59.0% / 41.0%</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span data-path-to-node="11,4,0,0">2023</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="11,4,1,0">1,011,951</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="11,4,2,0">444,432</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="11,4,3,0">69.5% / 30.5%</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span data-path-to-node="11,5,0,0">2024</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="11,5,1,0">855,425</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="11,5,2,0">658,050</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="11,5,3,0">56.5% / 43.5%</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span data-path-to-node="11,6,0,0">2025</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="11,6,1,0">1,163,782</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="11,6,2,0">594,950</span></td>
<td><span data-path-to-node="11,6,3,0">66.2% / 33.8%</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3 data-path-to-node="12">Key Product Observations</h3>
<ul data-path-to-node="13">
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="13,0,0"><b data-path-to-node="13,0,0" data-index-in-node="0">Nitrogen Dominance:</b> Straight nitrogen imports have grown by 158% since 2020, peaking at 1,163,782 tonnes in 2025. Nitrogen outperformed phosphorus-based blends in volume every year from 2022 onwards.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p data-path-to-node="13,1,0"><b data-path-to-node="13,1,0" data-index-in-node="0">Complex/Phosphate Volatility:</b> Phosphorus-based imports dropped sharply in 2023 to 444,432 tonnes, recovered briefly in 2024, and fell back to 594,950 tonnes in 2025. High pricing for finished phosphates globally has kept buying patterns hand-to-mouth.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 data-path-to-node="15">Market Drivers and Structural Import Reliance</h2>
<p data-path-to-node="16">The dramatic rise in 2025 port volumes is tied to structural changes in Romania's domestic fertilizer industry.</p>
<h3 data-path-to-node="17">Domestic Production Stalls</h3>
<p data-path-to-node="18">Azomureș, the sole large-scale domestic producer of nitrogen and NPK fertilizers in Romania (with a capacity of 1.60 million tonnes per annum), has faced severe operational hurdles due to high European natural gas prices. The plant was completely offline from July 2024 until a brief, reduced-capacity restart in July 2025 to supply the autumn planting window. However, uneconomic gas spot prices and stalled acquisition talks between state-owned Romgaz and Ameropa eventually forced the asset into complete mothballing.</p>
<h3 data-path-to-node="19">High Import Substitution</h3>
<p data-path-to-node="20">Because Azomureș typically covers up to 75% of domestic fertilizer demand, its prolonged closures have forced the Romanian agricultural sector to rely almost entirely on foreign supply chains. This structural deficit has redirected massive flows of sea-borne Urea, Ammonium Nitrate, and NPKs through the Port of Constanța to secure national crop yields, explaining the unprecedented import levels seen across 2025.</p>
</div>
*Nexus Weekly Update*
*28/05/26*
Rates in the Pacific remain firm, with fresh NOPAC cargoes emerging this week for 2H June dates and supporting stronger numbers for prompt tonnage in the region, whilst activity for more forward stems remains relatively limited. At the same time, an increasing number of backhaul trips from the Far East have been pushed out, with rates for these routes also moving higher. Additional cargoes from the Australian coast and continued nickel ore activity into China, have further supported regional demand, whilst the tightening tonnage list across the Far East continues to underpin owners’ sentiment. Looking ahead, the forward outlook does not currently appear bearish, with Supramax paper values remaining relatively stable despite firmer Capesize paper markets.
The Indian Ocean market was extremely quiet this week with Eid and Hari Raya taking place across the region. For the Supramaxes, iron ore demand from ECI and salt cargoes ex WCI kept tonnage employed, while for the handysize segment healthy steels flow from India kept those vessels busy. While many Gulf states have ramped up their Red Sea exports, infrastructure is coming under pressure resulting in some congestion beginning to build up. Down in South Africa, we might begin to see a split in rates as owners discount further to the stronger Pacific Market, while there may be some increase in the rates of India / Pakistan route due to a lack of interest due to the holiday period.
The Continent has seen very limited fresh enquiry aside from the usual steel movements into the East Mediterranean, leaving overall sentiment weak. In the Mediterranean, rates have come under further pressure, with only a small number of cargoes moving towards the Continent. Softer conditions in the ECSA have also complicated owners’ positioning decisions, as the premium for ballasting south has narrowed. Many owners now must weigh up whether to reposition towards the South Atlantic or seek employment out of the US Gulf. In the Black Sea, activity has once again been extremely limited, with Ukrainian business falling back in line with broader market levels after previously commanding a premium over Russian cargoes. Looking ahead, there is little expectation of any near-term improvement, particularly with many market participants away next week with various shipping events.
The USG market has been pushing this week, mainly off the back of increased petcoke and grain cargoes, which ultimately benefited the Supramaxes on long haul business more. That being said, increased levels are being fixed on the handysize vessels as well, mainly on the inter-gulf cargoes. North Coast South America is also enjoying an increase in demand from petcoke and fertiliser, with sentiment from owners looking positive heading into next week.
The ECSA market remained relatively quiet this week, particularly for end May and early June dates, with limited fresh enquiry entering the market. While some coastal activity was reported, many market participants suggest a floor has now been reached for TA business. There is expectation that rates may begin to recover next week as more stems emerge. In West Africa a handful of fresh cargoes emerged during the week, though forward fixing activity remains limited as participants remain cautious ahead of the approaching rainy season.
Panama Canal congestion remains elevated, although the current situation differs from the severe operational disruption seen during the drought period. Transit levels continue at roughly 36-40 vessels per day, largely through reserved booking slots, however demand for those slots has increased significantly in recent weeks. Market participants note that uncertainty surrounding Hormuz has encouraged more vessels to consider Panama as an alternative routing option, increasing competition for available transit windows. As a result, auction values for priority passage have risen sharply, with vessels without prior reservations continuing to face uncertain waiting times and reduced flexibility for forward voyage planning.
Bunker prices softened during the week as improving sentiment surrounding ongoing US/Iran discussions eased immediate concerns over supply disruption, although it remains to be seen how long this will last. Current prices stand at usd 770 pmt in Singapore, 915pmt in Fujairah and 715pmt in Gibraltar.
Many thanks
China Daily Review: On May 28, the national urea market experienced an increase in prices. The decline in futures prices affected market sentiment in industrial trading areas, and industrial demand did not sustain its previous level. Agricultural sector purchasing enthusiasm remained strong, while upstream prices continued to rise. However, the volume of transactions today significantly decreased.
On May 28, 2026, the national daily production of urea was 212,200 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 84.60%. Overall, the market is performing strongly.
https://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/india-coal-gasification-scheme-energy-security-imports-industrial-growth-126051401296_1.html
India is making a serious push to reduce its dependence on imported LNG, ammonia, and fertilisers by converting domestic coal into syngas at industrial scale. The Union Cabinet has approved a INR 37,500 crore gasification scheme targeting 75 million MT of coal and lignite gasification capacity, within a broader national goal of 100 million MT by 2030, with eligible projects receiving financial incentives of up to 20% of plant and machinery costs. The logic is straightforward: with roughly 389 billion tonnes of coal reserves and a fertiliser import bill that leaves the economy perpetually exposed to geopolitical shocks, currency volatility, and supply disruption, using that coal to make ammonia and urea domestically is an industrial and energy security argument as much as an economic one.
The China comparison is instructive and sobering in equal measure. China's coal-to-chemicals sector produces around 80 million MT of syngas-related products annually, accounts for over 90% of Chinese ammonia output, and contributes roughly 40% of global urea production. India, by contrast, has only a handful of operational projects and is at an early stage by any measure. The gap is not just technological; it reflects decades of integrated infrastructure investment, R&D, and policy continuity that India is only now beginning to replicate.
The challenges are real. Coal gasification is capital intensive, water intensive, and technically demanding, with long gestation periods that deter private investment without strong policy visibility. Emissions management and carbon accountability will also need to be addressed seriously if the programme is to sit credibly alongside India's decarbonisation commitments. But if executed well, this is a structural shift with direct implications for global fertiliser trade flows, LNG demand, and India's long-term position as an import market.
BPC has settled India’s first standard MOP contract of 2026 with IPL at USD 383/MT CFR with 180 days credit, up USD 34/MT or 10% from the H2 2025 level of USD 349/MT CFR, with roughly 600,000 MT committed for shipment June through December. All other suppliers are expected to follow at the same price. Notably, India now sits at a USD 35/MT premium to China, whose 2026 contract was settled back in December 2025 at just USD 2/MT above H2 2025 levels, reflecting the spot price gains that have accumulated since.
The commercial reality for Indian importers is ugly. The average importer margin on direct application MOP is now assessed at a loss of USD 51/MT, having deteriorated sharply from a loss of USD 9/MT in April on the back of the contract price increase and rupee weakness against the USD. The MRP remains unchanged at INR 1,750-1,800 per bag, equivalent to roughly USD 371/MT, and has been flat since late November 2025. An MRP increase looks unavoidable, but when it comes it will weigh on potash consumption in India during H2 at precisely the moment when affordability is already tightening in other markets.
ICE canola futures pushed higher on Wednesday, tracking Chicago soyoil rather than a weakening crude market. July settled up USD 6.00 at USD 756.70/MT and November gained USD 6.40 to USD 767.70/MT. Warm and dry conditions are allowing Canadian farmers to make rapid seeding progress after an unusually cold spring flipped abruptly to unusual heat. The pace matters: crop insurance deadlines are approaching and canola remains the most profitable main crop option, so producers are motivated to get as many acres in the ground as possible. Euronext rapeseed edged up 0.14%. Malaysian palm did not trade due to a public holiday.
CBOT soybeans closed narrowly mixed. July slipped 3/4 cent to USD 11.85-1/4 per bushel while November gained 1-1/4 cents to USD 11.81-1/2. The July/November spread has collapsed from a peak of 76 cents/bushel in mid-March to around 4 cents, a clear signal that cash market demand for old-crop beans has cooled considerably. Soyoil provided the support, with July ending up 1.2% at 75.26 cents/lb despite crude oil falling 5% as energy markets waited on Hormuz deal updates. Soymeal added USD 2.00 to USD 330.60/short ton.
Two items worth noting. In Argentina, the government moved quickly to shut down a national oilseed workers strike within hours of it starting, ordering unions and exporters into forced talks over a wage dispute. And in the US, the USDA reported soybean planting at 79% complete, well ahead of the five-year average of 68%, with first crop condition ratings due next week.
The yen slipped to 159.51 per USD on Wednesday, its weakest since 30 April and edging back towards the 160 level that triggered intervention last month. Markets are not convinced the Bank of Japan will hold the line. As Eugene Epstein at Moneycorp put it, the playbook is familiar: authorities intervene, the market calls their bluff, they intervene again, and only then does anyone believe them. A roughly 70% probability of a quarter-point hike at the 15-16 June BOJ meeting is now priced in.
The USD steadied after Trump acknowledged unresolved issues in US-Iran peace talks, cooling hopes of a swift Hormuz resolution. The euro dipped to USD 1.1631, sterling fell 0.11% to USD 1.3432, and the dollar index sat at 99.2, on course for a second consecutive day of gains.
The standout mover was the New Zealand dollar, which rallied 1.11% to USD 0.59 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand came unexpectedly close to raising rates, with its decision to hold coming down to a three-three split. The RBNZ signalled further tightening may be needed sooner and more aggressively than previously guided. The Australian dollar bore the brunt, falling 0.35% against the USD to USD 0.7142 and dropping 1.39% against the kiwi to USD 1.202, its sharpest single-day decline against its trans-Tasman neighbour in nearly a decade.
China: Ammonium Sulphate Market Price Trends:
27 May 2026
Today, the market price for ammonium sulphate continued its downward trend, with coking-grade ammonium sulphate auction prices dropping significantly, leading to an overall bearish market outlook. Both domestic and international export demand remain weak, and domestic procurement sentiment for ammonium sulphate continues to be depressed. There is a lack of positive support in the short term, causing delivery pressures to mount for raw material factories, whilst prices continue to fall due to inventory impacts.
The ammonium sulphate market is expected to continue its downward adjustment in the short term.
### Ammonium Sulphate Factory Quotes:
* **Bayan Nur Energy:** Ammonium sulphate auction volume was 180 tonnes, with a starting bid price of 950 CNY/tonne and a final transaction price of 950 CNY/tonne, representing a downward adjustment of 210 CNY/tonne.
* **Yangmei Taihua:** The caprolactam-grade factory quote is 1,600 CNY/tonne, with the actual price open to negotiation.
* **Shizong Coal Coking Chemical Co., Ltd.:** Coking-grade ammonium sulphate auction volume was 35 tonnes, with a starting bid price of 1,180 CNY/tonne and a final transaction price of 1,180 CNY/tonne.
* **Shenhua Wuhai Energy (Xilaifeng Coal Chemical Company):** Ammonium sulphate auction volume was 420 tonnes, with a starting bid price of 950 CNY/tonne; the auction ultimately failed to attract bids.
* **Shandong Laiwu Steel:** Coking-grade ammonium sulphate auction volume was 280 tonnes, with a starting bid price of 1,050 CNY/tonne; the auction ultimately failed to attract bids.
* **Yankuang Lunan Chemical:** The 300,000-tonne capacity caprolactam unit is operating at a reduced load, with the latest quote adjusted downwards to 1,670 CNY/tonne.
* **Henan Shoushan Coking:** Ammonium sulphate auction price was 1,005 CNY/tonne (excluding loading fees), down by 145 CNY/tonne.
* **Henan Shuncheng:** The latest transaction price for ammonium sulphate was 1,045 CNY/tonne (excluding loading fees), down by 235 CNY/tonne.
* **Henan Liyuan Coal Coking:** The latest ammonium sulphate auction price was 1,085 CNY/tonne, down by 200 CNY/tonne.
* **Guangxi Shenglong Metallurgy:** The ex-factory quote for ammonium sulphate was 1,200 CNY/tonne, down by 300 CNY/tonne.
* **Jiangsu Yizhou Coking:** Ammonium sulphate auction volume was 800 tonnes, with a final transaction price of 1,120 CNY/tonne, down by 130 CNY/tonne.
* **Shandong Yulong Petrochemical:** Plant operations are normal, with an auction volume of 1,000 tonnes, a starting bid price of 1,000 CNY/tonne, and a final transaction price of 1,000 CNY/tonne, down by 220 to 225 CNY/tonne.
* **Shanxi Lubao:** The ex-factory price for caprolactam-grade in tonne bags was 1,500 CNY/tonne, down by 250 CNY/tonne.
### Caprolactam-Grade Ammonium Sulphate Factory Prices:
* **Shandong Luxi Chemical:** Caprolactam-grade premium product is 1,670 CNY/tonne, down by 20 CNY.
* **Yankuang Lunan Chemical:** Caprolactam-grade quote reference is 1,690 CNY/tonne.
* **Shanxi Lanhua:** The plant is shut down for maintenance; no quotes are currently available.
* **Hualu Hengsheng (Power Plant):** Ammonium sulphate crystal is 1,115 CNY/tonne.
* **Shandong Hualu Hengsheng:** Caprolactam-grade ammonium sulphate bulk material is 1,680 CNY/tonne (down by 20 CNY), 50kg small bags are 1,720 CNY/tonne, 1,250kg tonne bags are 1,710 CNY/tonne, and 25kg small bags are 1,740 CNY/tonne.
* **Baling Hengyi:** Caprolactam-grade domestic sales quote is 1,730 CNY/tonne.
* **Cangzhou Xuyang:** Caprolactam-grade (bulk cargo) quote is 1,680 CNY/tonne, down by 20 CNY.
* **Dongming Xuyang:** Caprolactam-grade is 1,640 CNY/tonne, down by 20 CNY.
* **Guangxi Hengyi:** Caprolactam-grade ammonium sulphate ex-factory quote is 1,760 CNY/tonne.
As of May 27, 2026, the total inventory of China’s urea enterprises stood at 921,000 tons, an increase of 144,500 tons from the previous cycle, representing a month-over-month increase of 18.61%. During this cycle, the domestic urea enterprises’ inventory continued to rise, although the overall accumulation rate slowed down. The initial market weakness persisted, and some high-priced regions still exhibited continued accumulation. The pressure on enterprises to sell their products had not fully eased. However, positive developments regarding export-related news during the period boosted market sentiment, leading to an overall uptick in sentiment. Most regions began to see improved sales, and the accumulation pace of enterprises started to slow down. The provinces with increased inventory for enterprises included Anhui, Gansu, Hainan, Hebei, Henan, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Sichuan. The provinces with decreased inventory for enterprises were Hubei, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shandong, and Yunnan.
Urea barges in NOLA are trading today around USD 480/st, continuing its downward trend.
Chinese domestic urea prices have edged higher since the export quota announcement, with prills at CNY 1,750-1,765/MT EXW and granulars at CNY 1,840-1,865/MT EXW, though the move has been modest. Domestic supply remains very healthy. Production is running at 210.4kt per day and factory stocks have built to 921kt. Market participants are drawing the same conclusion as last year: a first-period quota of 1.9 million MT in total is not large enough to sustain meaningful domestic price support for long. The key question for the second half is whether top-dressing demand in June and July provides a bullish catalyst, or whether the wave of new capacity scheduled to come online in H2 keeps the domestic market under pressure.
On exports, prills are trading at USD 660-680/MT FOB and granulars at USD 670-690/MT FOB, broadly in line with the announced floor prices of USD 660/MT for prills and USD 670/MT for granulars. India-bound cargoes carry a premium floor of USD 680/MT for prills and USD 690/MT for granulars. The total first-period quota is confirmed at 1.9 million MT, including 400kt of government-to-government volume. The export window runs June to August. There are reports that some phosphate producers participating in the winter stock programme have also received urea quota allocations. No port CIQ inspection requirement has been imposed this year, which sounds like a positive, but in practice it is expected to slow the release of cargoes into the international market. A Beijing policy meeting on quota details is understood to be taking place this week. The market is watching India closely. If the next tender offers a longer shipping window, Chinese origin material will compete actively.
Offers now seeping in to the market: Automotive-grade urea USD 695 FOB Qingdao/Tianjin. Agri-grade prilled urea USD 675 FOB. Granular urea USD 685 FOB Payment terms 30% TT in advance, 70% TT before shipment. FOB only.
In India, NFL has issued a urea import tender for 800kt on the east coast and 900kt on the west coast, closing on 8 June. Offers are to remain valid until 18 June and shipment is due by 20 July.
Russia's federal rail agency Roszheldor has ordered an immediate halt to Kazakh sulphur movements across its rail network effective 24 May, cutting off a transit corridor that handled between 3.7 and 4.6 million MT per annum. Morocco is the most exposed buyer, having sourced roughly 35% of its total sulphur imports from Kazakhstan in 2025, and with Hormuz flows already severely constrained, there is no obvious replacement volume sitting in reserve. This is no longer a regional shipping disruption; it is a structural supply crisis hitting fertiliser producers, metals processing, and bulk freight simultaneously.
Sulphur:
Middle East: USD 740–765FOB
China Granular: USD 950–1,000CFR (China Domestic Spot: RMB >7,500 EXW
The global sulphur market remains under extreme structural pressure, with geopolitical disruption continuing to choke physical supply chains and sustain historically elevated pricing. The Strait of Hormuz remains the central fault line in the market, with ongoing naval disruption and freight risk severely restricting exports from the world’s largest sulphur-producing region. Freight rates, insurance premiums, and transit delays across the Persian Gulf and Red Sea continue to escalate, forcing producers to aggressively reprice cargo allocations. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation recently lifted official sulphur pricing by approximately USD195 in a single revision, helping establish the current FOB Middle East range around USD 740–765/Mt.
Turkish supplier Tupras has also seen domestic tender pricing surge sharply higher over the past month.
Phosphate fertiliser producers globally are increasingly reducing operating rates due to feedstock costs and limited availability, raising longer-term concerns around agricultural supply chains and crop nutrient affordability.