https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/rj-obrien-agrees-to-acquisition-by-stonex-group-302427535.html
Morning. Higher AG phys sales (Sabic $395) saw May AG paper trade up into mid-$380s on Fri, to then meet resistance. In Nola, Q4 paper found value $350. Reaction to IPL acceptances well short of target (817-820kt) awaited – paper framed:
AG
Apr $380//$390
May $370//$380 – traded $385, $380, $375
Jun $350//$368
Cfr Brazil
Apr $372//$380
May $370//$380
Jun $365//$375
Aug $365//$375
Sep $360//$380
Egypt
Apr $380//$395
May $367//$375
Jun $364//$373 – traded $370
Q3 $360//$385
Nola
Phys: FH Apr $405, $400, $405
Apr $395//$415
May $390//$400
Jun $355//$380
Jul $350//$360
Aug $345//$355
Sep $350//$360 – traded $355
Q4 $345//$355 – traded $350
UAN Nola
Apr $325//$345
May $330//$358
June $330//350
Q2 $330//$355
DAP Nola
Apr $615//$640
May $620//$635
Jun $590//$610
Q3 $585// $610
MAP Brazil
Apr $670//$685
May $675//$700
Jun $690//$700
Jul $690//$700
Aug $685//$705
LONDON (ICIS)—Looks like IPL has got acceptance from suppliers for nearly 820,000 tonnes of urea (maybe 850kt), which is below expected volume.
Tariff-induced volatility in the west has coincided with Indian import demand, resulting in a significantly fragmented urea market. The spread between in-season US Gulf and Brazilian cfr values is now over $65pt.
The US Gulf now takes the premium-market crown in the west, although this is primarily of benefit to duty advantaged suppliers in Russia. Russian spot granular urea prices are unsurprisingly now closely correlated to US values, even if this is unlikely to last once season end approaches.
The nearby US market was set to be tight owing to anticipated strong demand and with urea imports to date only marginally above those of last year. Tariffs have, unsurprisingly, raised doubts over the extent of import arrivals from end-April.
Suppliers subject to 10% tariffs in the USA have been looking elsewhere, weighing on Brazilian granular values. Thus far, the position has motivated only one Nigerian supplier to confirm a cargo to India in the latest tender.
For those in North Africa, European buyers are playing it cool with current season inquiry light and regional gas prices softer.
India has once again taken centre stage in the east. The wide delta between east and west coast offers in the latest purchasing tender has played a role in stemming supplier interest with Indian Potash Limited issuing fresh counters today.
As of this morning, the state agency has just over 640,000t of product in hand, with this primarily basis shipment from Russia and the Middle East.
Is that directl hedge report?
Apr. AG $375/390
May AG $370/375
June AG 360/370
Apr. Egypt $380/395
May Egypt $375/385
Jun. Egypt 365/375
Apr. Brazil $375/390
May Brazil $370/385
Jun. Brazil $370/385
Apr Map Brazil 680/695
May Map Brazil 685/695
Jun Map Brazil 685/695
Apr AS Brazil 174/185
May AS Brazil 174/184
Jun AS Brazil 170/187
Stateside: Urea Nola
Apr. Indic. $395/405
May Indic. $390/398
Jun Indic. $355/370
DAP Nola
Apr. Indic $620/640
May Indic $625/640
Jun. Indic $625/640
UAN
Apr. Indic. $325/335
May Indic. $340/360
Jun. Indic. $340/360
Gd
Iranian major urea producers announced $350/mt officially which decreased $10/mt rather than previous week.
China: For compacted amsul, values have followed the
latest capro increases. Around 15,000t of compacted
amsul is reported to have been sold for May
shipment in the mid-$160s pt fob, up $3-7pt on last
done and $10-20pt over the last two weeks. Prior to
this, 6,000t were sold for May shipment in the high-
$150s pt fob.
-UREA PRICES ARE ON THE UP WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPACT OF THE 10% IMPORT TARIFFS TO THE US WILL HAVE WITH RUSSIAN MATERIAL EXEMPT FROM TARIFFS
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES ARE GOING UP AT RELENTLESS SPEED ON THE BACK OF HIGH DEMAND AND LACK OF SUPPLIES
-POTASH MARKETS ARE RELATIVELY STABLE WITH EXPECTATIONS OF PRICE INCREASES BOTH IN BRAZIL AND SOUTH EAST ASIA DUE TO LACK OF SUPPLIES
-AMMONIA PRICE OUTLOOK IS BEARISH WITH SUPPLY OUTSTRIPPING DEMAND
“Based on the fact that more than 75 Countries have called Representatives of the United States, including the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed relative to Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non Monetary Tariffs, and that these Countries have not, at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape, or form against the United States.”
The above roller coaster decision reduced the reciprocal tariffs to zero and back to the basic 10% import tariffs on all goods entering the US with a grace period for 90 days, except for China which had their tariff increased to 125%. Urea trade flow changes were starting to take shape with both Nigerian (14% tariffs) and Algerian (30% tariffs) producers looking for alternative destinations instead of the short-haul to the US and Russian producers were looking to increase their sales to the US being exempt from tariffs in the first place. Prices of urea started to climb as well with Middle East FOB levels approaching the USD 400 PMT mark. US/NOLA prices hit USD 425 per short ton FOB for the first half April with first half May trading at between USD 410-415 per short ton FOB. Rumours are also circulating that SE Asian producers are getting offers above USD 390 PMT FOB for May shipment to Australia which is still lacking water in the south of the country to support early consumption. Iranian producers tried to sell at USD 360 PMT FOB for granular urea but bids came in at around USD 350 PMT FOB thus no sales have been reported.
The Indian purchase saw offers of a total of 3.5 million MT with West Coast India L1 at USD 385 PMT CFR and East Coast at USD 398.24 PMT CFR. India has invited suppliers covering around 1.8 million to accept these prices and it remains to be seen now that urea prices appear to be increasing if there is sufficient interest for India to secure its desired 1.5 million MT. Current netbacks to the Middle East from the India tender are estimated at between USD 470-380 PMT FOB which is lower than the current spot market. At the time of this writing India has only secured 400,000 MT from suppliers.
EABC of Ethiopia has announced a urea purchase tender of 676.000 MT closing on April 23rd with 12 lots each of 52,000 MT to be shipped to Djibouti. This will certainly add to the upward movement of urea prices. However, the only uncertainty is the end result in India which may see them having to tender again – this could put a temporary cap on price increases.
With the continued absence of Chinese processed phosphates in the international market prices are increasing across the board at a relentless speed. Despite the worst affordable barter ratio for MAP in Brazil since April 2022, when MAP was trading at USD 1,118 pmt CFR, there is still demand for MAP and the latest price reported is as high as USD 695 PMT CFR. This is up from USD 660-670 PMT CFR from just two weeks ago.
Indian DAP buyers have also had to concede with DAP now trading as high as USD 690+ PMT CFR up from the last confirmed business of USD 640 PMT CFR. India is in a precarious situation and is in desperate need for DAP. The US market has received support from tariff expectations and uncertainty. Prices for DAP and MAP barges at New Orleans climbed further on trades this week. Prices could soon reach a ceiling with affordability becoming an issue. EABC of Ethiopia issued another DAP tender this week closing on April 23rd which will add further pressure on prices with Chinese suppliers still under export restrictions imposed by the government.
Prices of processed phosphates are expected to keep on increasing with demand outstripping supply.
Potash prices outside of China and SE Asia remained mostly stable while Pupuk Indonesia's fresh standard MOP tender is expected to contribute to further upward momentum in SE Asia. The bullish sentiment is supported by limited availability. The US market has been quiet this week with Potash from Canada exempt from tariffs under the trade agreement ANNEX II. Brazil granular MOP prices are assessed at USD 347.50 PMT CFR for May arrivals with June onwards pegged higher with a range of USD 350-370 PMT CFR being offered but no deals as of yet.
The outlook for potash prices is bullish with emerging demand outsripping supplies.
Ammonia prices both east and west of Suez still remain firmly oriented to the downside with supply remaining outweighing demand and supplies scrambling to place excess tonnage. Prices should continue to come under pressure moving into 2H April though it remains to be seen how much further values in Asia can decline before producers begin to shutter output. Conversely, questions remain as to how much of an upside impact 10% imports of Trinidad ammonia will have on next month's Tampa settlement.
Morning. Int'l paper activity subdued y'day prior to IPL confirms deadline. Similarly, quiet mkts in Nola after prior day's price swings, but loaded/FH April barges continue to attract a premium.
AG
Apr $373//$385
May $368//$380
Jun $350//$367
Cfr Brazil
Apr $374//$383
May $370//$380
Jun $360//$380
Aug $360//$380
Sep $360//$385
Egypt
Apr $385//$397
May $370//$377
Jun $355//$370
Q3 $360//$388
Nola
Physical trades – Loaded $420; FH Apr $418
Apr $395//$415
May $390//$400
Jun $355//$380
Jul $350//$360
Aug $345//$355
UAN Nola
Apr $325//$345
Q2 $330//$355
DAP Nola
Phys: April traded $635
Apr $615//$640
May $620//$635
Jun $590//$610
MAP Brazil
Apr $670//$685
May $675//$700
Jun $690//$700
Jul $690//$700
Aug $685//$705
https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:AP:b51089cf-112d-471a-9a0c-a34c25b21fc6
Morning. After IPL counters, and rumours of higher AG phys sales, Int'l paper more supported yday, w/ activity focused on May Egypt. In Nola, demand continued for spring tons – Market moved lower after most recent tariff 'pivot' but firmed back by COB.
AG
Apr $373//$385
May $372//$382
Jun $350//$367
Cfr Brazil
Apr $374//$385
May $370//$385
Jun $350//$370
Aug $360//$373
Sep $360//$375
Egypt
Apr $385//$400
May $375//$385 – traded $370, $375, $378.50
Jun $360//$375
Q3 $360//$390
Nola
Physical: Fh April 425, 420, 405, 415
April 400 (multiple). Fh May 408, 395.
Paper:
Apr $395//$415
May $390//$400 – traded $390-$402 range ($400 last)
Jun $355//$380
Jul $350//$360
Aug $345//$355 – traded $350
UAN Nola
Apr $325//$345
Q2 $325//$355
DAP Nola
Apr $615//$640
May $620//$635
Jun $590//$610
MAP Brazil
Apr $670//$685
May $675//$700
Jun $690//$700
Jul $690//$700
Aug $685//$705
*Analyst note*
Market sentiment: 26.
*Demand surges*
Importers are seeking 14+ tons.
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.