Morning. Int'l paper quiet y'day awaiting further mkt developments following conclusion of IPL tender. In Nola Urea, nearby phys prices remain supported in $665-$670 range, with paper activity seen on Jul & Aug at $545 (Q3 traded $580 last Thurs). Mkts framed:
AG weekly index = $916.50, Apr Avg = $858.25
May $790//$825
Jun $675//$750
Cfr Brazil weekly index = $780, Apr Avg = $778.75
May $740//$765
Jun $660//$745
Jul $610//$710
Aug $600//$695
Egypt weekly index = $882.50, Apr Avg = $856.50
Brazil Amsul weekly index = $270, Apr Avg = $288.75
May $250//$280
Jun $250//$280
Nola
Paper:
Apr $670//$700
May $642//$665
Jun $600//$645
Jul $525//$555 – traded $545
Aug $520//$555 – traded $545
UAN Nola weekly index = $515, Apr Avg = $500
May $500//$535
DAP Nola weekly index = $710, Apr Avg = $726.63
May $750//$785
June $700//$765
MAP Brazil weekly index $890, Apr Avg = $878.75
Jun $875//$930
Jul $925 Offer
-INDIA CONFIRMED BUYING 2.5 MILLION MT WITH SHIPMENT ON OR BEFORE JUNE 14TH, AND AS A RESULT, UREA PRICES WORLDWIDE ARE UNDER UPWARD PRESSURE
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES KEEP ON GOING UP DUE TO LIMITED AVAILABILITY, WITH CHINA STILL NOT TAKING PART IN EXPORTS
-POTASH PRICES ARE GOING UP, BUT SIGNS ARE EVIDENT THAT AFFORDABILITY COULD PLAY A ROLE
-THE CONTINUED CLOSURE OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT SUPPORTS INCREASING AMMONIA PRICES
UREA
IPL of India has now issued LOIs for 2.5 million MT of urea to be delivered on or before June 14th. West Coast volume is 1.5 million MT, of which Aditya Birla plans to ship 700,000 MT, whilst the East Coast number is 1 million MT, and again, Aditya Birla tops the honours with 540,000 MT – for a total of 1.240 million MT. Obviously, the numbers are not only impressive but also raise questions about whether the “gamble” will pan out satisfactorily.
Urea sourced from the Baltic and Black Seas is estimated at up to 800,000 MT, with 500,000 MT originating from North Africa, Oman, Nigeria, and Southeast Asia, including Brunei, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Still, this raises the question of whether there will be enough urea available for shipment to meet the 2.5 million MT commitment, particularly now that Chinese urea appears unlikely to become available until later in the year.
Otherwise, the spot market is slow, with a few cargoes bound for Australia, and the first-ever shipment from Algeria is rumoured to be underway. Nigeria is also coming to Australia with one or two cargoes. In addition, the Australian Export Finance Corporation is said to be underwriting 250,000 MT of granular urea sourced from Indonesia, with the Australian Prime Minister acting as a fertilizer trader for, and on behalf of, Incitec Pivot and CSBP! Other fertilizer companies in Australia are raising concerns about this arrangement, since it is viewed as a favourable and biased gesture not to the industry as a whole but only to two companies.
MOPCO of Egypt is said to have sold 2x45KT lots destined for India at a sales price of USD 885 PMT FOB. Dangote of Nigeria is rumoured to have sold 4×30 KT granular urea to Ethiopia for May shipment, but prices are unknown. Iranian producers are still operating at capacities estimated at 50% of the total 8.6 million MT annual production, and a price has been set at USD 770 PMT for exports. However, with the US blocking shipments from Iran, it appears the above is just a formality, with no actual shipments in sight.
BFI of Brunei is said to have sold 30 KT at or around USD 910 PMT FOB, the same FOB level at which CaMau in Vietnam recently sold.
The Russian government has extended the export quota to the end of December with a quantity of 20 million MT, of which 8.7 million MT is for nitrogen fertilizers, 7 million for complex NPK, and 4.2 million for AN.
NOLA is struggling to keep up with pricing versus India on urea, and the current import price equivalent is 760 PMT CFR, well short of India's USD 935 CFR and USD 959 CFR West Coast and East Coast, respectively.
The market outlook now hinges on the Hormuz Strait, with the India tender already taken care of. In other words, President Trump is at the helm of the global commodities market with oil trading around USD 100 PMT and urea heading above USD 1,000 MT. Inshalla!
PHOSPHATES
Several key FOB price benchmarks for phosphate fertilizers rose sharply this week as producers raised offers amid tight global supply and record-high raw material prices, though key import markets remained slow due to poor affordability.
Morocco's OCP, the world's largest phosphate fertilizer producer, reported fresh sales to Europe at prices well above previous levels, following two weeks without any reported sales. Prices for spot DAP sales were assessed up to $950-975/t from $810-820/t, with the MAP assessment rising to $878-963/t FOB from $855-878/t, and TSP climbing to $700-740/t FOB from $620-665/t FOB. The company announced three weeks ago that it was bringing forward its maintenance schedule and expected a reduction of up to 30% in output for the second quarter of 2026. A potential supply reduction from producers is causing concern in a global market already exceptionally tight.
The supplier's price-making power has increased, as it is a key supply source amid constrained availability from other key origins such as Saudi Arabia and China, though high prices and a lack of raw-material sulfur supply may limit OCP's ability to take full advantage of the situation. The December news that China would temporarily halt DAP, MAP, and NP exports until August had already emboldened bulls in the market by creating a tight supply outlook, and the country last month widened export restrictions to include other fertilizers such as SSP and TSP. Market participants' expectations for Chinese phosphate exports in 2026 have turned increasingly bearish, with an increasing number of sources at this week's Jinmen conference fearing China may halt DAP/MAP/NP exports through the end of this year due to the influence of sulfur prices on domestic fertilizer values and production.
Prices in the key DAP import market, India, remained steady at $865/t CFR, given a lack of new spot purchases, inquiries, or offers. The assessment jumped two weeks ago from $790-805/t CFR to its highest level since August 2022, climbing 29% since the start of this February. As the Kharif season approaches, the lack of DAP import deals will become increasingly concerning for India's importers and consumers. Domestic production has also been cut due to the lack of raw material supply. Spot prices for MAP to Brazil were assessed at $900/t CFR this week from $880-900/t based on the latest reported deals, though offers for new sales were as much as $100/t above this. Most buyers still appeared willing to wait, given poor affordability and no pressing need for product, though the supply outlook suggests that further price increases are likely. The price is up 42% year to date, or $265/t, and is at its highest level since early August 2022.
Prices were already expected to climb even higher than 2025's peaks, given China's severe export restrictions. The conflict in the Middle East is set to tighten the market further and push prices even higher over the coming weeks and months, with the impact on sulfur availability and prices also adding pressure on phosphates upwards.
POTASH
Potash prices rose across key markets, including Brazil, the US Gulf, Northwest Europe, and Southeast Asia, driven by active buying, higher offers, and seasonal demand, despite lower freight costs. Freight rates on major potash trade routes have, in fact, declined week on week, according to data from Bery Maritime. The earlier narrative that elevated logistics costs are pushing prices higher now appears difficult to sustain as ocean freight costs begin to ease. Observers are beginning to question whether suppliers are capitalizing on firm market sentiment to push prices higher. In some parts, demand is lending some support to the spot market.
Brazil’s potash imports rose 20% year on year in the first quarter, while Southeast Asia also saw a big jump over the same period. China’s Q1 imports reached approximately 4.6 million tonnes (Mt) – the highest level seen in a decade, suggesting domestic buyers are moving to secure volumes at current prices rather than risk paying a premium later.
MOP prices are expected to edge higher in the near term, underpinned by rising freight, insurance, and logistical costs.
AMMONIA
Global ammonia benchmarks pushed to fresh highs this week, with a reported ex-Egypt trade at $905/t CFR into Northwest Europe, marking the highest Atlantic level since the Middle East conflict began and a significant step up from last week's assessment of $ 800-875/t CFR.
The move was driven primarily by tightening North African supply, with Algerian offer levels climbing to $840-850/t FOB and Egyptian availability constrained by EBIC being sold out through June and Abu Qir's limited prompt tonnage. This transaction suggests buyers are willing to pay up for material that can be found.
In India, the assessment held at $800-850/t CFR, though the market remains structurally exposed. April arrivals of approximately 121,800 t – drawn predominantly from Oman, Indonesia, and Malaysia – provide some near-term coverage, but the forward pipeline is thin.
Chinese loading difficulties reported on two cargoes bound for India added a further complication, with the importer said to be seeking alternative sourcing, some suggest from South Korea. Unconfirmed talk of four-digit offer levels has circulated, though no firm bids at those levels have been reported.
Notably, PT ESSA has confirmed that its PAU facility in Indonesia will shut for a five-week turnaround beginning 6 May. At 700,000 t/yr, the outage removes a significant regional supply from a market already under pressure. Combined with uncertainty over Petronas's turnaround timeline, complicated by the unplanned Bintulu outage earlier this month, SE Asia offer levels have breached $700/t FOB, up sharply from $650-690/t the previous week. The region is carrying an outsized share of global ammonia demand east of Suez.
In East Asia, spot offers into Taiwan, China reached $780/t CFR, up from $700-730/t the previous week, tracking higher Southeast Asian FOB levels. South Korea's April imports of approximately 110,400 t, versus 124,500 t in April 2025, suggest buyers have been effective at sourcing alternatives, though at progressively higher cost and with fewer options ahead as Southeast Asian availability tightens. China's export suspension remains unconfirmed, with sources indicating the policy has not been formally implemented. Q1 export data from GTT shows the scale of activity that preceded the discussion: 207,000 t shipped in the first quarter, a 645% year-on-year surge underlining how consequential any formal ban would be for regional markets.
Ammonia benchmarks are expected to remain under upward pressure. The PAU turnaround removes a key supply source from an already tight SE Asian market, North African availability is similarly constrained, and the Hormuz closure continues with no clear resolution timeline
LONDON (ICIS)– In Egypt, MOPCO sold two cargoes of granular urea at $885/tonne FOB to India for the latest tender, for shipment by 14 June.
In Nigeria, Dangote sold four cargoes of granular urea to Ethiopia for May at an undisclosed price.
LONDON (ICIS)–In Egypt, NCIC has sold 3,000 tonnes of granular urea at $830/tonne FOB for end April, while last week three full cargoes were concluded for India at 885-890 FOB netback.
In southeast Asia, hearing of granular urea business around $910/tonne FOB.
Morning. After IPL finally issued LOIs for 2.5m tonnes, nearby Urea bids (and values) initially moved higher y'day before subsequently retreating. On Int'l paper, May Brazil traded $785cfr, while Apr/Loaded Nola phys traded $690 (+$30 from day prior). Mkts framed:
AG
May $800//$815
Jun $710//$775
Cfr Brazil
May $750//$780 – traded $785
Jun $700//$750
Jul $620//$715
Aug $620//$700
Brazil Amsul
May $250//$280
Jun $250//$280
Nola
Phys: Loaded traded $690. Apr $690. FH May $690, $695, $685
Paper:
Apr $670//$700
May $635//$680
Jun $600//$640
Jul $535//$570
Aug $535//$570
UAN Nola
May $500//$535
DAP Nola
May $750//$785
June $700//$765
MAP Brazil
Jun $875//$910
Jul $915 Offer
I will to start contacting growers to advise we can get Urea this way. It continues to remain dry throughout Southern Qld well into Northern NSW. So I guess while it remains dry irrigation growers will sit on their hands. The problem is the time it takes to get Urea here.
Was speaking to both Koch and Impact today, there has been a lot of press about Federal Government underwriting 4 vessels of Urea , I’m assuming from Indonesia been imported by IPL . Koch and I’m Impact advised that they had been invited to participate but there is no detail on how it works, the government is saying that under writing is to Port only , to cover companies importing Fertiliser from while price fluctuations.
Typical Labour Party propaganda. Barry Parkinson said to me on Monday IPL needed to cover a short fall of 36000 ton to cover over selling.
I haven’t had any pricing thrown to me, I should know more tomorrow.
For end-April shipment
Thursday, 23 April 2026 (Acerto)
Urea/CAN/Phosphates
Egypt: NCIC has awarded its latest sales tender basis FOB Damietta as follows:
Urea (3,000t): $830/t
CAN (5,000t): $412/t
DAP (20,000t): $880/t
TSP (10,000t): $695/t
SOP (1,000t): $705/t
LCB Global Sulphur Market Brief
China Spot: Elevated (supported by tightening imports and structural deficit)
Global Spot Market: Firm (war premium embedded; limited liquidity)
Market Overview
The global sulphur market has deteriorated further, transitioning into a prolonged structural supply crisis with direct implications for industrial production. The market is no longer reacting to short-term disruptions but has begun pricing in sustained logistical constraints and supply deficits as a baseline condition.
Confidence in any near-term resolution has largely evaporated, with participants now repositioning for an extended period of tightness.
Freight & Logistics
The Strait of Hormuz has effectively entered a state of full logistical deadlock. Escalating hostilities and continued enforcement of naval restrictions have rendered the route commercially non-viable.
Shipping companies have largely withdrawn from the region, citing unacceptable risk to vessels and cargo, while insurance premiums remain prohibitively high. As a result, sulphur flows from the Gulf have effectively ceased, forcing widespread rerouting and significantly extending transit times for alternative supply routes.
The knock-on effect is increasing congestion across secondary shipping lanes, further compounding delays and reducing overall system efficiency.
Supply & Pricing Dynamics
The impact of sustained disruption is now clearly visible in global supply metrics. Import-dependent regions are experiencing tightening availability, with evidence of a structural deficit emerging.
Prices continue to hold firm, supported by a growing “war premium” and aggressive competition for non-Gulf material. Buyers are increasingly focused on securing supply from alternative origins, pushing premiums higher across these markets.
Industrial Impact
The first signs of demand-side adjustment are now emerging. In Indonesia, nickel HPAL operations—highly dependent on sulphur input—are beginning to slow production in order to preserve limited inventories.
This marks a shift from cost absorption to operational adjustment, signalling that the supply constraint is beginning to materially impact industrial output.
Market Structure & Trade Implications
The market has now fully transitioned into a reliability-driven environment. Supply linked to high-risk regions is effectively excluded from the tradable pool, while “safe origin” material is commanding increasing premiums and strategic importance.
Procurement strategies are shifting away from opportunistic spot purchasing towards long-term mitigation and diversification of supply chains. Competition for alternative origins—including Central Asia, North America, and domestic production—is intensifying, with limited capacity available to absorb the sudden shift in demand.
At the same time, heightened geopolitical tension is increasing regulatory and compliance risks, particularly around shipping routes and sanctions exposure, requiring stricter oversight of logistics and counterparties.
Forward Outlook
The market is no longer in a transitional phase. Current conditions are being treated as the new operating baseline, with constrained logistics and limited supply expected to persist through the near term.
Even with a potential easing in tensions, the scale of disruption and backlog suggests that normalisation would take considerable time, leaving the market structurally tight for the foreseeable future.
I just heard this news
Export Quotas
Total: The total urea export quota for 2026 is locked at 3.3 million tons, a significant reduction of 32.7% compared to the actual export volume in 2025.
Allocation Method: A dual-track allocation system will be implemented, with state-owned enterprises (90%) (2.97 million tons) primarily controlled by central state-owned enterprises such as Sinochem and China National Agricultural Development Group; non-state-owned enterprises will receive 10% (330,000 tons), allocated to qualified private enterprises.
Implementation Restrictions: New quota issuance will be suspended during the peak spring planting season in March and April. Existing quotas will also face strict customs clearance controls, effectively resulting in near-zero exports. Exports of urea in packages ≤10kg will also be suspended to prevent disguised exports, and exports to India will be prohibited.
For urea, domestic market firm at about 1830-1860rmb exw for prills and 1940-1960rmb exw for granulars. Demand are slow in domestic but there are some cargoes delivery to the port warehouse to prepare for the export, it make market got support. Also the NPK producers keep purchase these weeks that they increase the N content purchase volume based on P and K are too expensive. But the cargoes already sent to port will not allowed to export that CNFIA just announced, so it may have to move back to the domestic market, it will give pressure in the next few weeks. Productions at about 216kt per day level and factory stocks keep declined to 464.3kt level.
Morning. Int'l paper in search of further definition (wide bid//ask ranges) in thin participation y'day, as talks in Islamabad continue/ceasefire extended, and IPL awards still awaited. Nola Urea saw loaded barges trade up $650-$660, and May paper $640 down to $630. Mkts framed:
AG
May $755//$815
Jun $660//$750
Cfr Brazil
May $700//$760
Jun $650//$745
Jul $620//$715
Aug $620//$710
Brazil Amsul
May $255//$285
Jun $255//$290
Nola
Phys: Loaded traded $650,$655, $660; FH May $645
Paper:
Apr $670//$700
May $625//$640 – traded $640, $635, $630
Jun $590//$610
Jul $515//$560
Aug $520//$560
UAN Nola
Apr $500//$525
May $500//$535
DAP Nola
May $750//$785
June $700//$765
MAP Brazil
Jun $875//$910
Jul $915 Offer
As of April 22, 2026, the total inventory of China’s urea enterprises stood at 464,300 tons, a decrease of 43,400 tons from the previous cycle, or a decrease of 8.55% month-on-month. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline during this period, although the overall reduction was limited due to the relatively low inventory levels of most urea enterprises. Significant reductions were observed in the Xinjiang region; other regions experienced only minor decreases, with some areas currently experiencing a shortage of inventory. Provinces with increased enterprise inventory: Gansu, Hainan, Shaanxi. Provinces with decreased enterprise inventory: Henan, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shanxi, Sichuan, Xinjiang.
CIV: Government signals full VAT reversal on fertiliser inputs
AFRIQOM Insight.png
VAT Policy
Côte d’Ivoire’s agriculture minister, Bruno Nabagné Koné, has said discussions are underway with the relevant authorities to restore full VAT exemption on fertiliser inputs and packaging, potentially reversing the 9% VAT introduced on 17 January 2026 under the 2026 finance law.
The minister’s comments were made on 23 March during a joint ECOWAS-WAEMU agriculture ministers’ meeting focused on the regional response to rising energy costs and tightening fertiliser supply.
No formal reinstatement has yet been confirmed. In the absence of an official notification, the exemption should still be treated as pending.
AFRIQOM Take
The signal points to mounting policy pressure in Abidjan as higher global fertiliser prices and the January VAT change have combined to raise costs for importers, blenders and farmers.
AFRIQOM had flagged this risk in January when the tax was introduced. Since then, the burden has likely intensified as Côte d’Ivoire remains fully reliant on imported straight fertilisers for local blending, leaving the market exposed to higher freight, insurance and tax costs at the same time.
The timing has been particularly difficult. The VAT took effect in mid-January, just weeks before the Hormuz-linked supply disruption added further pressure to international prices and regional procurement costs.
A formal reversal would be supportive for market affordability, but key questions remain around implementation, including whether any exemption would apply retroactively and how quickly lower costs would feed through into domestic pricing.
Why it matters: Côte d’Ivoire imported around 764,000 tonnes of fertiliser in 2025, up from about 584,000 tonnes in 2024, according to AFRIQOM tracking. That increase in volume underlines a market with rising demand, but also one that is highly exposed to global fertiliser and affordability shocks.
If the exemption is reinstated, importers and blenders will need to adjust pricing and stock valuations accordingly, especially for material brought in under the 9% VAT regime.
Watchpoints
Whether the VAT reversal is retroactive or applies only to new imports
The impact on Q2-Q3 procurement planning
Whether Abidjan adds further support measures beyond VAT relief
How quickly any tax relief is reflected in farmgate prices
Market analysis for today.
The domestic urea market has continued as it was the day before, with no signs of loosening. The current focus is on exports: anticipated exports, but actual spot prices remain strong, and inventory levels across all parties are low. The apparent situation remains one of a tight balance between supply and demand, making it difficult to implement exports in the short term. Therefore, theoretically, the market can only remain stagnant here. If sentiment is strong, the spot market is also strong; if sentiment is weak, the spot market needs time.